NOTE ON NEPAL EARTHQUAKE

The attached map showing the 25 April and 12 May Nepal earthquakes along with several aftershocks (AS), has
been generated after merging two posters released by USGS following the Mw 7.8 and 7.3 events. Blue lines are
added to depict the AS distribution pattern that fairly gives an idea of the extent of fault rupture area which is
around 200 Km x 80 km. It may be noted that most aftershocks propagated towards ESE from the mainshock of
25 April including the one of 12 May and subsequent AS.
Several alternative scenarios could follow:
1) Occurrence of low- moderate magnitude AS will continue (several months) and if they remain located within
the rupture area (as in map), large magnitude AS to the tune of Mw 7.0 are not expected.
2) If the extent of AS zone propagates further towards ESE/ SE, there is a possibility to trigger moderate to large
magnitude (>6.0) AS. In such a scenario Bihar and N Bengal will be affected more.
3) It is likely that to south fault rupture is restricted within the flater segment of the Main Himalayan Thrust
(MHT) and has not ruptured the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) splay. If AS start moving towards SW/SSW (towards
and beyond the lower blue line in the map), there is a possibilty that the rupture could be daylighted (along or
parallel to the black toothed line; MFT) via another morphogenic earthquake. Note the epicenter of the 1934
earthquake to the SE corner of the map.
Sujit Dasgupta 17.05.2015