fore a ‘Sent: ‘Thursday, Marc! 11 9:45 PM 3 To: Subject: He Latest How Syria is aiding Qaddafi and more. Sid . ‘Attachments: hrc memo syta aiding Moya 030311.doox hre memo syria aiding libya 03031 1.docx (CONFIDENTIAL ‘Mareh 3, 2011 For: Hillary From: Sid Re: Syria aiding Qaddafi ‘This memo has two parts. Part one isthe report that Syria is providing air support for Qaddafi. Part two is a note to Cody from Lord David Owen, former UK foreign secretary on his viows of an increasingly complex crisis. It seems that the situation is developing into a protracied civil war with various nations backing opposing sides, ‘with unforeseen consequences. Under these circumstances the crucial challenge isto deprive Qaddafi of his sttategic depth—his support both financial and military. Duting the afemoon of March 3, advisers to Muammar Qaddafi stated privately that the Libyan Leader has decided that civil war is inevitable, pitting troops and mercenary troops loyal to him against the rebel forces gathering sround Benghazi. Qaddafi is convinced that these rebels are being supported by the United States, Western Europe and Israel. Cn March 2 Qaddafi told his son Saif al-Islam that he believes the intelligence services of the United States, Great Britain, Egypt, and France have deployed paramilitary officers to Benghazi to assist in organizing, training, and equipping opposition forces. Qaddafi is convinced that the National Libyan Council (NLC), and its leader, former Minister of Justice Mustafa Mohamed Abdel Galil have been chosen by the foreign powers to replace him. On March 1 advisors to Qaddafi stated thatQaddafi’s cousin, Col. Ali Qaddafiddam had failed in efforts to recruit fighters among the Egyptian population living immediately across the border with Libya. ‘These individuals added that during the week of February 21 the Libyan Leader spoke to Syrian President Bashir al-Assad on at least three occasions by secure telephone lines. During the conversations Qaddafi asked that Syrian officers and technicians currently training the Libyan Air Force be placed under command of the Libyan Army and allowed to fight against the rebel forces. (Source Comment: Senior Libyan Army officers still loyal to Qaddafi added that On February 23, President Assad told General Isam Hallag, the commander in chief of the Syrian Air Force, to instruct the pilots and technicians in Tripoli to help the Libyan regime, should full scale Civil ‘War breaks out in the immediate future.) ‘On March 2, a military officer with ties to Qaddfi’s son Khamis stated privately that the number of Libyan pilots defecting to the opposition hes destroyed the morale and professional spirit of the Libyan Air Force at this critical moment, when Tripoli's air superiority is its principal weapon against insurgents. In the opinion of this individual Qaddafi and his sénior military advisors are convinced that the Eropean Union and the U.S will impose a no-fly zone over Libya in the immediate future. These advisors believe that the no fly zone will serve as air support for ‘opposition forces. They are also prepared for the Westem allies to bomb anti-aircraft facilities in and around Tripoli in preparation for the establishment of the no-fly zone. Foteign Minister ‘Mousa Kousa is convinced that that Russia and Turkey will oppose the move, and may prevent the implementation of the no fly zone. ‘The Syrian soldiers in Libya are part of a mission established in 1984 following the signing of a military agreement between Qaddafi and Syria's long-time ruler and Bashit’s father, Hafez. al- Assad, in the presence of General Soubhi Haddad, who was the commander in chief of the Air Force at the time. Both Air Forces are equipped with Russian materiel and have had long- standing, close links with Moscow. Tl. Note from David Owen, former UK foreign secretaryIn exchange for Syria’s help, Libya provided financial support to the Syrian state, including fimds in support of operations carried out by the Syrian intelligence services in Lebanon. Libyan money helped Hafez al-Assad bribe his brother Rifaat, the author of an attempted coup d'etat in 1983, to leave the country and go into exile in Spain and France, where he has remained ever since. ‘According to individuals with access to the Syrian military, Damascus has also sent a second team of pilots and technicians to Tripoli, These are lower-ranking officers loyal to the regime who are specialized in flying helicopters. Before their departure for Tripoli on February 23, they met with General Allag and General Jamil Hasan, head of Air Force's Intelligence. (Source Comment: During the afternoon of 3 March, an associate of Saif al-Islam Qaddafi stated that he and the Libyan leaders other family members were concemed over the announcement of Jose Luis Moreno-Ocampo, chief prosecutor of the Intemational Criminal Court (ICC), announced that he was investigating Qaddafi, his sons Khamis, the commander of the 32 battalion, and Montasem, as well as the head of Gadhafi's personal security detail, the Director-General of the External Security Organization (Abuzaid Dorda), the spokesman of the regime (Musa Ibrahim), and the Minister of Foreign Affairs (Mousa Kousa). This source added that Saif al-Islam had said that Qaddafi himself found the announcement amusing.) From: Lord Owen Cody, Realistically the UN will not authotise a no fly zone while Gaddafi continues to hold off bombing and strafing but keeping it up front and on the military agenda keeps him worried. Yet for a few frustrating months that ambivalence kept the Serbian aetoplanes on the grouind before we acted. My hope is thet preparations continue with visuals of planes flying off carriers, airborne early warning planes flying and people with clout outside the Administration demanding preparations, But and itis a big BUT what else can and should we be doing? Encourage humanitarian ships and convoys from Egypt to bring in supplies since we must ensure the cities in the East can hold up living standards, maybe for months, More adventurous, Egyptian Special Forces to go in and advise, even supplying hand held missiles. It appears they have few missiles; the military in the East having been deliberately kept ill-equipped. There is old Nasserte sentiment for a Federation of Egypt, Sudan and Libya. I know some will say Egypt has enough problems and they should stay resolutely focused on domestic reforms. it is delicate but words alone and the balance of advantage wil slip to Gaddafi. A Gaddafi victory is possible and needs to be weighed in the balance now when deciding what to do. Tm more wortied than I am ready to say publicly. ‘Yours DavidFrom: H chrod17@clitonemallcom> Sent: Friday, March 11, 2011 1:36 PM To: Huma Abedin Subject: Fac H: Latest: How Syria is aiding Qaddafi and more... Sid Attachments: Ihre memo syria aiding ibya 03031 t.docx Pls pent. a To ‘Subject: H: Latest: How Syria's alding Qaddafi and more... Sid ‘CONFIDENTIAL March 3, 2011 For: Hillary rom: Sid Re: Syria aiding Qaddafi ‘This memo has two parts, Part one isthe report that Syria is providing air support for Qaddafi. Part two is a note +o Cody ftom Lord David Owes, former UK foreign secretary on his views of an increasingly complex crisis. It scems that the situation is developing into a protracted civil war with various nations backing opposing sides with unforeseen consequences. Under these cireumstances the crucial challenge is to deprive Qaddafi of his strategic depth—his support both financial and military. I Report During the aftemoon of March 3, advisers to Muammar Qaddafi stated privately that the Libyan Leader has decided that civil war is inevitable, pitting troops and mercenary troops loyal to him against the rebel forces gathering around Benghazi. Qaddafi is convinced that these rebels are being supported by the United States, Western Europe and Israel. On March 2 Qaddafi told his son Seif al-Islam that he believes the intelligence services of the United States, Great Britain,Egypt, and France bave deployed paramilitary officers to Benghazi to assist in organizing, staining, and equipping opposition forces. Qaddafi s convinced that the National Libyan Council {NLC), and its leader, former Minister of Justice Mustafa Mohamed Abdel Galil have been shosen by the foreign powers to replace him. On March 1 advisors to Qaddafi stated that Qaddafi’s cousin, Col, Ali Qaddafiddam had failed in efforts to recruit fighters among the Bgyptian population living immediately across the border with Libya. These individuals added that during the week of February 21 the Libyan Leader spoke to Syrian President Bashir al-Assad on at least three occasions by secure telephone lines, During the conversations Qaddafi asked that Syrian officers and technicians currently training the Libyan Air Force be placed under command of the Libyan Army and allowed to fight against the rebel forces. (Source Comment: Senior Libyan Army officers still loyal to Qaddafi added that On February 23, President Assad told General Isam Hallag, the commander in chief of the Syrian Air Force, +o instruct the pilots and technicians in Tripoli to help the Libyan regime, should full scale Civil War breaks out in the immediate future.) On March 2, « military officer with ties to Qaddfi's son Khamis stated privately that the number of Libyan pilots defecting to the opposition has destroyed the morale and professional spirit of ‘he Libyan Air Force at this critical moment, when Tripoli’ air superiority is its principal weapon. against insurgents. In the opinion of this individual Qaddafi and his senior military advisors are zonvinced that the European Union and the U.S will impose a no-fly zone over Libya in the immediate future. ‘These advisors believe that the no fly zone will serve as air support for apposition forces. They are also prepared for the Western allies to bomb anti-aircraft facilities in and around Tripoli in preparation for the establishment of the no-fly zone, Foreign Minister Mousa Kousa is convinced that that Russia and Turkey will oppose the move, and may prevent the implementation of the no fly zone. The Syrian soldiers in Libya are part of a mission established in 1984 following the signing of a military agreement between Qaddafi and Syria's long-time ruler and Bashir’s father, Hafez. al- a Note from David Owen, former UK foreign secretaryAssad, in the presence of General Soubhi Haddad, who was the commander in chief of the Air Zoree at the time. Both Air Forces are equipped with Russian materiel and have had long- standing, close links with Moscow. ‘exchange for Syria's help, Libya provided financial support to the Syrian state, including funds 1 support of operations carried out by the Syrian intelligence services in Lebanon. Libyan money aelped Hafez. al-Assad bribe his brother Rifaat, the author of an attempted coup d'etat in 1983, ‘0 leave the country and go into exile in Spain and France, where he has remained ever since. According to individuals with access to the Syrian military, Damascus has also sent a second ‘eam of pilots and technicians to Tripoli. These are lower-ranking officers loyal to the regime who are specialized in flying helicopters. Before their departure for Tripoli on February 23, they ‘net with General Allaq and General Jamil Hasan, head of Air Force's Intelligence. “Source Comment: During the aftemoon of 3 March, an associate of Saif al-Islam Qaddafi stated that he and the Libyan leaders other family members were concemed over the mnouncement of Jose Luis Moreno-Ocampo, chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Zourt (ICC), announced that he was investigating Qaddafi, his sons Khamis, the commander of she 32 battalion, and Montasem, as well as the head of Gadhafi's personal security detail, the Director-General of the Extemal Security Organization (Abuzaid Dorda), the spokesman of the cegime (Musa Ibruhim), and the Minister of Foreign Affairs (Mousa Kousa). This source added +hat Saif al-Islam had said that Qaddafi himself found the announcement amusing.) From: Lord Owen Cov, Realistically the UN will not authorise a no fly zone while Gaddafi continues to hold off bombing and sitafing but keeping i¢ up front and on the military agenda keeps him worried. Yet fora few frustrating months that ambivalence kept the Serbian aeroplanes on the ground before we acted. My hope is that preparations ‘continue with visuals of planes flying off carriers, airborne early wamning planes flying and people with clout outside the Administration demanding preparations. But and itis a big BUT what else can and should we be doing? Encourage humanitarian ships and convoys from Egypt to bring in supplies since we must ensure the cities in the East can hold up living standards, maybe for months, More adventurous, Egyptian Special Forces to ‘go in and advise, even supplying hand held missiles. It appears they have few missiles; the military in the East having been deliberately kept ill-equipped. There is old Nasserite sentiment for a Federation of Egypt, Sudan and Libya. [know some will say Egypt has enough problems and they should stay resolutely focused on domestig xeforms.itis delicate but words alone and the balance of advantage will ip to Gaddafi. A Gaddafi‘Victory is posstble and needs to be weighed in the balance now when deciding what to do. ‘I'm more worried than I am ready to say publicly. Yours DavidFrom: ‘sbwhoeop| Sent: ‘Sunday, March 27, 2011 9:05 PM To: H Subject: Hi Lots of new inte; possible Libyan collapse. Sid . Attachments: thre memo lots of new intet possible imminent collapse 0327 1.400% hire memo lots of ‘new inte possible imminent collapse 032711.docx CONFIDENTIAL ‘March 27,2011 For: Hillary From: Sid Re: Lots of new intel; Libyan army possibly on verge of collapse Latest: ‘During the evening of March 27, 2011, individuals with direct access to the military committee -of the National Libyan Couneil (NLC) stated in confidence that while the rebel forces continue to have organization and ‘communications problems, their morale has improved drastically, and they believe the Libyan Army is on the ‘verge of collapse. Under attack from allied Air and ‘Naval forces, the Libyan Army troops have begun to desert to the rebel side in increasing numbers. The rebels are making an effort to greet these troops as fellow Libyans, in an effort to encourage additional defections. (Gource Comament: Speaking in strict confidence, one rebel commander stated that bis troops continue to summarily execute all foreign mercenaries captured in the fighting. At the same time Colonel Khalifa Haftar hhas reportedly joined the rebel command structure, in an effort to help organization the rebel forces. aflar was the commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA), a 1500 mani force of anti-Qaddafi troops based in N'djamena, Chad, until eurent President Idryss Debi overthrew Chadian President Hussein Habre in the fll of 1990, with the assistance of Libyan and French troops. Haftar and his troops fled to a country in central Africa and many, including Haftar, later settled in the United States.) An extremely sensitive source added that the rebels are receiving direct ‘essistance and training from a small ‘number of Egyptian Special Forces units, while French and British Special Operations troops are working out of bases in Egypt, along the Libyan border. ‘These troops are oversceing the transfer of weapons and supplies to the rebels,(Source Comment: The rebels are moving back into ‘reas that they lost in mid- March fighting, and using the allied sir cover, they are confident they can move into the Tripoli district in a matter of days. One rebel source teported that they had reliable intelligence that people were evacusting Qaddafi's hometown, Sirte, anticipating it is located mid-way between Tripoli and Benghazi; its loss will be a ) Separately, a sensitive European source stated in strict confidence that French military commanders anticipate & complete collepse of the Libyan military command and control structure ithe next week. These officers, who have experience with the Libyan Army during its invasion of Chad inthe late 1980s stated thatthe Libyan troops did not perform well under concentrated fire from troops armed with modern weapons. This source also noted that information from Tripoli has become increasingly difficult to obtain, but there are reports of deaths among some Qaddafi’s senior security officials, including Mansour Daw, and that the Libyan leader himself may have experienced a health problem, Unfortunately, the European Intelligence services have been unable to confirm or discredit these reports. This situation hes become increasingly frustrating for French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who, according to knowledgeable individuals, is pressing to have France emerge from this crisis as the principal foreign ally of any new government that takes power. Sarkozy is also concemed about continuing reports that radical/erorist groups such as the Libyan Fighting Groups and Al Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) are infiltrating the NLC and its military command, Accordingly, he asked sociologist Bernard Henri Levy, who has long established ties to Israel. Syria, and other nations in the Middle East, o use his contacts to determine the level of influence AQIM and other terrorist gyoups have inside of the NLC. Sarkozy also asked for reports setting out a cleas picture of the role of the “Muslim Brotherhood in the rebel leadership. These sources note that French diplomats and intelligence officers in Egypt are in contact with the following rebel figures in Benghazi: MESMARI Nouri (Qaddafi's former head of protocol, who along with Mousa Kousa was considered the Libyan leaders most loyal follower. Nouri currently lives in France; Gehan (GHEHANI Abdallah (colonel), CHARRANT Faraj, BOUKHRIS Fethi, General Abdelfateh Younis (commander of the rebel forces) (Souree Comment; Senior European security officials caution that AQIM is watching developments in Libya, and elements of that organization have been in touch with tribes in the southeastern part of the country. These officials are concerned that in a post-Qaddafi Libya, France and other westem European countries must move quickly to ensure that the new government does not allow AQIM and others to set up small, semi- autonomous local entities—or “Caliphates"—in the oil and gas producing regions of southeastern Libya.) ‘These knowledgeable sources add thatthe insurgonts have the following weapons stockpiled in Benghazi: 82 and 120 mm. mortars, GPZ type machine gums; 12.7ram., machine guns mounted on 4x4 vehicles; some anti-aircraft batteries type ZSU 23/2 and 23/4 as well as Man-Portable Air-Defense Systems (MANPADS) type SAM7; some tanks type T-725Possibly some fixed wing aircraft, and some light transport/medium helicopters. ‘A seemingly endless supply of AK47 assault rifles aud ammumition (even for systems ZSU 23/4 and 23/2). French, British and Egyptian Special Forces troops are training the rebels inside of western Egypt, and to a limited degree in the western suburbs of Benghazi. (Source Comment: These sources add that the MANPAD SAM? systems appear to be old and badly preserved, and have been judged useless by the rebels.)— From: sbwhoeop| Sent: Friday, Api 8, 2011 5:28 PM. To: 4 Subject: H: UK game playing; new rebel strategists; Egypt moves In. Sid - Attachments: he memo UK games; new rebel strategists; Egypt moves 040B11.docx hre memo UK ‘games; new rebel strategists; Egypt moves 04081 1.docx CONFIDENTIAL For: Hilary From: Sid Re: UK game playing; new rebel strategists; Egypt moves in Latest report: UBYAIGREAT BRITAINIFRANCE (On the moming of Apri 8, an individual wth direct access tothe leadership of the Libyan National Council (LNC) stated in strictest confidence that members of he Mltary Committe ofthe LNC are concerned that, despite the Involvement of 'NATO against he forces of Muammar Qaddaf, the government of Great Brain i using Hs intaligence services in an efor to dictate the actions of both the LNC and the Gaddafi regime. These individuals add that they have been Informed by contacts in France and Italy that, whle they have been engaged in discussions wit the LNC regarding possible ‘assistance, Bllah diplomats end iniligence officers have maintained contact wth members ofthe Qaddafi government, in an effort o protect the Brtsh poston in the event the rebelion settles Into a sialemate. These LNC officials believe {hat the defection of Libyan Ministor of Foreign Affairs Mousa Kousa to the United KIngdom was pet of this effort. By the ‘same token they believe that British inteligence officers are in discussion with asaocites of Saif aisiam Qaddafi, ‘regarding future relations between the two countries i he takes over power from his father and implements reforms, ‘According to these individuals, senior LNC military personnel suspect that despite eary indications that they would ‘provide clandestine mitary support tothe rebels; nether the French nor the British government wil provide the rebels ‘with enough equipment and training to defeat Qaddaffs forces. They also believe thatthe French, British, and other European countries will be satisfied with a stalemate that leaves Libya divided into two rval entities. (Source Comment: In the opinion of ese indlviduals the LNC mila leaders are considering the possibilty of hiring private secuty fis to help tran end organize their forces. One ofthese indivduals added that a numberof the LNC ‘members beleve that this solution may be best forthe rebels; noting tht if they accept clandestine aid from France and/or Great Britain those two counties willbe in @ position to contol the development of post-Caddafi Ubya.) LIBYA INSURGENT ACTIVITY {es Information is based on sensitive reporting from individuals with direct accers to the leadership of the ic) : 1. With ite hope of achieving a quick miltary victory the LNC is deploying a three part strategy; leveraging tribal relationships, of production and diplomatic pressure fo get the better of Qaddafl. A former spokesman for the Libyan Human Rights League (LHRL) in Europe, Ali Zidane, isin talks with representatives of tribes in Sebha and Sirte in an ‘effort to persuade them to raly tothe revolution and the LNC before fighting actually reaches thelr regions. Zidane fs a candidate to be the Minister of the Interior inthe “new Libya.” Among his close associates is Mohamed Allogul, president ‘of the LHRL, who is interested inthe justice portfolio In the future, transition government2. Atthe same tine, All Tarhouni, the LNC’s financial expert and Finance Minister in post-Caddafi Libya, is ‘struggling to get oll exports back on track in eastern Libya, with backing from the United States and Qatar. The LNC belleves that the U.S. wil focus on restarting operations al the ol terminal in Tobruk, and an American enwoy is expected in Benghazi inthe near future fo facltats this process. For its part, Qatar is advancing cash to the LNC to stimulate the ‘shipment of ol from eastern Libya, Some commodity traders stepped in recently (under contract from Qatar) to deliver refined oll produats tothe Insurgents. VITOL and the Swiss fm GLENCORE are operating In the rebel zone, but denied ‘any Involvement inthis shipment. Elsewhere, these sources add that Mahmud Shammam Is overseeing the information and communications campaign for the rebels against Gaddaf, Considered one of the LNC most important leaders, Shemmam brings to the insurgency the ‘expertise he acquired while working for Voice of America, Foreign Policy, Newsweek and Al Jazeora. Shammam lived in the U.S. for more than twenty years, and he is believed fo have excellent connections in the U.S. Government. 3. folamiot activity: Libya's Istamist activists have maintained a low profi since the start of the ineurgency in late Fobruary; fearing that the activiies would give credence to Qaddaf's claims thatthe rebets are terrorists. As the LNC is {oking shape, they are now working to make their voice heard, and influence evonts within the LNC. Ali Sallabl, Salem Al Shiki and Mohamed Al Guiti, leading slemic figures who had taken refuge in London (and are close tothe Mosiem Brotherhood), drafted “national pact” which looks like a road map for organizing the role ofthe Islamist movernent inthe transition toa post ~ Qaddaf Libya. ‘Sallab! and hie two associates draw thei inspiration from the “February 17 Movement” which helped spark the uprising by ‘commemorating the massacre of Islamist prisoners at the Abu Salim prison in 1996, Prior tothe current rebelion, Mustapha Abdel Jall, the President of the LNC and former Minister of Justice caled forthe roloase of reformed islamints, ‘At present, the islamiats are handicapped by the fac they supported Saif reform projects before the recent crisis. Saif played a crucial part in geting the Islamists to sever tes between the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group's and al Gta In the Islamic Maghreb (AQiM).. . EGYPT AND LIBYA: ‘A source wit excellent access to th highs levels ofthe SUPREME COUNCIL OF THE ARMED FORCES (SCAF) ‘states that the Egyptian Military has tumed its full attention tothe crisis in Libya. Traditonally, Egypt is @ strong influence inthe easter Libyan region of Gyrenaica end is naw taking advantage ofthe current eis to regain that positon Regordiess of whether Muammar Gaddafl remains fn power or not, the poltical division of Libya wil give Egypt the ‘opportunity to fil the void in the east. A senior dpfomatic source reported thet since the early days of the Libyan crisis, the Egyptian government has bean quietly supporting Libyan opposition forces through training, weaponry, food, and medical suppl, while atlempling to organize a poltcal structure inthe east. In alion, Egyptian Special Operations troops ore ‘serving with rebel forces inthe easter part of Libya. Sonlor Egyptian mltary offcers stated privately that these tops fare responsible for many ofthe rabef'& combat successes. “The following factors are the focus of Egypt's plans for @ post-Gtaddafl regime: -Avolding a refugee crisis, in the event Qaddaf's forces invade the east, Egypt isthe most logical destination for ‘efugees from Libyan. Egypt has an interest in controling any turrol in Libya that could harm efforts to restart ts struggling economy. -Labor market. Libya is an important market for unemployed Egyptian laborers. According to the Egyptian Labor ‘Ministry, around 1.5 millon Egyptians reside and workin Libya, sending hime an estimated $254 milion in remitiances, Inthe past few years, Qadda has placod heavy restrictions on foreign workers, and Egypt hopes that @ new regime will be more flexible, and open to receiving Egyptian workers. ‘Radical Islamlats. Traditionally, the eastern part of Libya has been a stronghold for radical tslamist groups, including the al Qaldainked Libyan islamic Fighting Group. While Qacdaf's regime has been successful in suppressing the ‘Jhadlst threat in Libya, the current situation opens the door for jhadist resurgence. Egypt has a growing interest in keeping a olose eye on jhadist movements in easter Libya. ‘This is especially true as the Egyptian Miltary is already concerned about sa mitany overtow fom Gaz, afr he foroes ware pulled bak to Cao during the uprising ‘against Mubara} -Oll and energy resources. Egypt has strong economic interests inthe ol rch eastern part of Libya. Any opportunity to ‘gain director Indirect accees to these energy resources wil Increase Egypt's wealth.Regional power. The Egypt's miltaryied goverment is looking to reestabilsh their country’s roe in the Arab world. 80 fa, Egypt tas fostered dlecussions Inthe Palestinian terrtories between Fatah and Hamas, while reaching out o Syria ‘and Saudi Arabia on the issue of Iran. (Source Comment: According to a sensitive diplomatic source, the current Egyptian diplomatic strategy is to enhance its ‘stature by defending the Libyan people against Qaddafis regime, while atthe bame time, distancing itself from any mltary intervention led by the region's former colonial powers in Europe.) It ehould be noted thet, inthe opinion of knowledgeable sources, Egypt cannot count on the suppcrt of every Arab power inthe rogon. Egypt led ta cal or Imposing the no-fy zona In Libya, while Algeria, while Yemen, and Syria voted againt X Ths cuntt(epeil Yorn) earth precede tht woul be entero cwn governments he event (Source Comment: A source with a0cess fo the leadership of NATO state in confidence that their information indicates ‘hat Syria and Algeria are concarmed with Egypt's revival in the region, This source stated that a de facto spit between ‘eastern and westam Libya would give Egypt the opportunity to reassume an influential postion in Cyrenaca,)_ From 1 chrodt7@dintonemallcom> Sent: Friday, Apll 8, 2011 535 PM To: “sulvanj@state gov Subject Far H: UX game playing: new rebel strategists; Eaypt moves in. Sid ‘Atachments: fre memo UK games, new rebel strategists Egypt moves 040811.doce Fic The Idea of using private securty experts to em the opposition should be considered. To:H Subject: H: UK game playing; new rebel strategts; Epypt moves In. Sid CONFIDENTIAL For Hilary From: Sid Re: UK game playing; new rebel strtegsts; Egypt moves in Latest report: (UBYAGREAT BRITAIN/FRANCE ‘on the moming of Apr 8, an Individual with direct access tothe leadership of the Libyan National Council (LNC) stated in ne moming cf Ap er oft ry Commie ofthe LNC ae concerned hat dese he Hens FA TO egainst the forces of Muammar Caddaf the government of Great Bria, 5 using is Intelligence services In an Dffot to dictate the actions of bath the LNG and the Gaddal regime. ‘These Individuals atid that they have been Informed ofr oe ft ators aya we oy have been engaged i cussions whe LNG rue fe, Ora» toh diplomats and irteligence officers have malntained contact wih morber ‘of he Qaddafi goverment, ‘ectslaror to protec the Bris postin inthe evert te rebelion sates into a slalom, “These LNC officials believe Anat ne dfeton of In ish rtigence acars are kcusion vi asses of Sal a slam Onsterh regarding future relations between the two countries ine takes over power from his father and implements reforms. ‘According o these fdvidels, senior LNC mary personne suspect hat despioeryIchontors Ts they would poet Caadeatine miltaryeupor to the reba; nether tha French nor the Bish gooey veil provide the rebols rove can uipment and traning to defeat Qadafs frees. They alsa bellows that the Fete Briish, and other van emf wt be sesiod wih asalemate tal eaves iby dvd roto rel onto. ‘comment nthe opinion ofthase Individuals the LNG nity leaders aro considering the poserety of hiring (eet seaury is to hep a end organize tel forces. One of ese incivuls eae that @ number of the LNC Pete Sec Ee olan may b bet fore ebos; naling ta thoy acowpt andes at for Taner mombes beleve ge bro counties wil ben a postion 0 con the development of post Gada bya), LIBYA -INSURGENT ACTIVITY Cf omen nnd on ei poring am inl rt eset AP )‘1. Wi litle hope af achieving a quick military victory the LNC is deploying three part strategy; leveraging tribal ‘lationships, ol production and diplomatic pressure to get the better of Qaddafi, A former spokesman forthe Libyan ‘Human Rights League (LHR) In Europe, All Zidano, Is in talks with representatives of iibes in Sebha and Site in en effort fo persuade thom fo rally to the revolution and the LNC before fighting actually reaches their regions. Zidane is & Candidate fo be the Minister ofthe Interior in the “new Libya.” Among his close assoolates Is Mohamed Allagul, president ‘of the LHL, whois interested inthe justice portfolio Inthe future, transition government. 2 Atthe same time, All Tarhouni, the LNC's financial expert and possily Finanoe Minister in past-Caddafl Libya, is Struggling to get oll exports back on track in easter Libya, with backing rom the Unked States and Qatar. The LNC. boieves that the U.S. wil focus on restarting operations at the olf terminal in Tobruk, and an American envoy fs expected ‘in Bonghaz! in the near future to facitate this process. For ts part, Qatar is advancing cash to the LNC to stimulate the Ssloment of ol from eastern Libya. Some commodity raders slapped in recently (under contract from Catan) to deliver ‘refined oll products to the insurgents. VITOL. and the Swiss frm GLENCORE are operating inthe rebel zone, but denled any Involvement inthis shipment. Elsewhere, these sources add that Mahmud Shammam Is overseeing the information and communications campaign for {the rebels against Qaddafi, Considered one of the LNC most important leaders, Shammam brings to the Insurgency the xpeitise he acquired white working for Voice of America, Foreign Poly, Newsweek and Al Jazeera. Shamma ved in ‘the U.S. for more than twenty years, and he is beloved to have excellant connections inthe U.S. Government. 3. tslamist activity: Libya's tsiamist activists have maintained a low profile since the stat ofthe insurgency in late February; fesring thet their activities would give credence to Caddaft’s claims that the rebels are terrorists, As the LNC is. ‘aking shape, they are now working to make their voice heard, anc Influence events win the UNC. A Sallabl, Salem At ‘Shiki and Mohamed AI Guirti, leading Islamic iqures who fad taken refuge in London (and are clase to the Moslem. Brotherhood), crafted a ‘national pact” which looks tke a road map for organizing the role of te Islamist movernent in the transtion to a post - Gaddafi Lbye, Sallabi and his two associates draw thelr inspiration from the “February 17 Movernent” which helped spark the uprising by oa ‘he massacre of Islamist prisoners at the Abu Salim prison In 1996, Prior to the current rebelion, Mustapha Abdel Jali, the President of the LN and former Ministor of Justice called forthe releaso of reformed fslamists, ‘Al present, the isiamists are handioapped by the fact they supported Saif roform projects before the recent ersis. Saif Played a crucial part in geting the Islamists to sever ties between the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group's and al Qa'da in the Islamic Magheeb (AQIN). EGYPT AND LIBYA: ‘A.souroe with excellent access tothe highest levels of the SUPREME COUNCIL OF THE ARMED FORCES (SCAF) Sent: Monday, May 2, 2011 11:08 AM To: a Subject: Pw: H: UBL, AQ Bc Libya, Sid Attachments: tre memo bin laden, aq & libya.docx Ps print. From: [maltos>vhoeo i Sent: Mondsy, Hay 09:12 AM, ‘Subject: H: UBL, AQ & Libya. Sid CONFIDENTIAL May 2, 2011 For: Hilary From: Sid Re: Bin Laden, AQ & Libya. Latest report: During the early moming of May 2, 2011 eouroos lh access to the leadership ofthe Libyan rebolions culng Transilonal ‘National Counal (TNC) sated la confdonce that they re concerned thatthe death of al Qa leader Osama Bia Ladon ‘wl spre al Qa'ea in the Islamic Maghreb (AGI) to use weapons they have obtained, which were oglnaly intended {or the rebets in Libya, to relate against the United States and its alles fr this attack in Pakistan. Theso individuals fear {hal the uso of the weapons i this manner will complicate the TNC's relationship with NATO and the United States, whose suppor is vial to them in thelr struggle withthe forces of Muammar al Gadd. In this regard they are concomed Mat Ug owl eles repr, fen cred by he Trpal Goverment gerchg he dere of rene examsed on the TNC, ‘Those Individuals note thatthe TNC offieals are reacting to reports received during the weok of April 25 from thelr own ‘s0u"G08 of information, the French General Director for Extemal Seoufly (OGSE), and Brtish external intellgence service (M8), stating that AIM has acqulred about 10 SAM 7- GraW/Streela man-portable al-defense systems (MANPADS or MPADS) from legal weapons markets in Wester Niger and Northem Mal. These weapons were ‘originally intended for sao to the rebel forces in Libya, but AQIM operatives were able fo meet seorelly wth these arms ddoalors and purchase the equipment. The acquisition ofthese sophisticated weapons creates @ serious throat to al trafic In Southem Morocco, Algeria, Northern Mal, Westem Niger, and Eastern Mauritania, (Source Comment: According to very sensitive sources, the Libyan rebels are concemed that AGIM may also obtain ‘SPIGOTT wire-guided antitank missiles and an unspecified number of Russian anti-tank mines made of plastic and undetectable by anthmine equipment. This equipment again was coming through Niger and Mall, and was Intended for the robels In Ubya. They note that AQIM Is very strong In this region of Northwest Africa)Inthe opinion of these knowedgeable Individuals, Libyan rebel commanders are also concemed that the death of Bin {Laden comes ata time wien senstve information indicates thatthe leeders of AIM ore planning to leunch aiacks ‘tcross North Affica and Eurdpe in an effort to reassert ther relevance during the ongolng upheavals i Libya, as woll as the rest of North Afica and the Middle East. They believe the ft step in this campaign was the Apri 30 bornbng of @ aft Market, Morooo fats fequened by Weslo outs, Towa nda pol out et AIM alo manne awide: Esrope. ‘The TNC loaders are siso concemed that, wih the death of Saif a-Arab Gadaf, the youngest son of Muammar Caddaf, the Tipo Gavemment may pursue retaliation against the United States and its Wester alles through surrogate terrorist ‘groups, particularly Hezbotah. While the deaths of Bin Laden and Saif al-Arab are completely unrelated, two separate ‘and very dangerous groups will now be looking for revenge against the U.S. and is alles. (Gource Comment: These knowledgoable souroes believe thatthe leaders of the TNC are also worried about the reaction {othe death of Bin Laden among rebel fightors and their supporters in Libya and Egypt, where the al Qa'da loader was very popular. These TNC officials do not want the death of Bin Laden to affect thelr relations with the West or thelr ‘support from NATO, the U.S., France, or Great Britain.) .CONFIDENTIAL ‘May 2, 2011 For: Hillary - From: Sid Re: Bin Laden, AQ & Libya ‘Latest report: During the early morning of May 2, 2011 sources with access to the leadership of the Libyan rebellion’s ruling Transitional National Council (TNC) stated in confidence that they are ‘concerned thatthe death of al Qa'ida leader Osame Bin Laden will inspire al Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) to use weapons they have obtained, which were orginally intended for the rebels in Libya, to retaliate against the United States and is allies fortis etack in Pakistan, "These individuals far thatthe use of the weapons inthis manner will complicate the TNC’s relationship with NATO and the United States, whose support is vital to them in their struggle ‘with the forces of Muammar al Qaddafi, In tis regard they are conecmed that U.S. officials will believe reports, often created by the Tripoli Government, regarding the degree of influence ‘exercised by AQIM on the TNC. ‘These individuals note that the TNC officials are reacting to reports received during the week of April 25 from their own sources of information, the French General Directorate for External ‘Security (DGSE), and British external intelligence service (MI-6), stating that AQIM has ‘soquired about 10 SAM 7- Grail/Streela man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS ot “MPADS) from: illegal weapons markets in Westera Niger and Northern Mali. These weapons ‘were originally intended for sale to the rebel forces in Libya, but AQIM operatives were able to meet secretly with these arms dealers and purchase the equipment. ‘The acquisition of these sophisticated weapons creates a serious threat to air traffic in Southern Morocco, Algeria, Northern Mali, Western Niger, and Eastern Mauritania, (Source Comment; According to very sensitive sources, the Libyan rebels are concemed that ‘AQIM may also obtain SPIGOTT wire-guided anti-tank missiles and an unspecified number of ‘Russian anti-tank mines made of plastic and undetectable by anti-mine equipment. This equipment again wes coming through Niger and Mali, and was intended for the rebels in Libya, ‘They note that AQIM is very strong in this regicn of Northwest Aftica.)1n the opinion of these knowledgeable individusls, Libyan rebel commanders are also concerned ‘that the death of Bin Laden comes at a time when sensitive information indicates thatthe leaders of AQIM are planning to launch attacks across North Aftica and Europe in an effort to reassert their relevance during the ongoing upheavals in Libya, as well asthe rest of North Aftica and the ‘Middle East. They believe the first step in this campaign was the April 30 bombing of a café in ‘Marrakesh, Morocco that is frequented by Wester tourists. These individuals point out that ‘AQIM also maintains a wide reach in Europe, ‘The TNC leaders are also concemed that, with the death of Saif al-Arab Quddafi, the youngest son of Muammar Qaddafi, the Tripoli Goverment may pursue retaliation against the United States and its Wester allies through surrogate terrorist groups, particularly Hezbollah. While ‘the deaths of Bin Laden and Saif al-Arab are completely unrelated, two separate and very dangerous groups will now be looking for revenge against the U.S. and its allies, (Gource Comment: These knowledgeable sources believe that the leaders of the TNC are also ‘worried about the reaction to the death of Bin Laden among rebel fighters and their supporters in Libya and Egypt, where the al Qa'ide leader was very popular. ‘These TNC officials do not want the death of Bin Laden to affect ther relations with the West or their support from NATO, the US, France, or Greet Britain)From: H chrodt7@diintonemall.com> Sent: Friday, May 6 2011 153 AM Yo: ‘sulivenyi@stategov' Subject: Fc H: UBL, AQ Libya. Sid Altachments: ‘xc memo bin laden, aq &lbyadooe More to pass on-sturbing, true, From: sbwhhoeo ito:sbwhoecr ‘Sent: Monday, May 02, 2011 08:12 AM To:H ‘Subject: H: UBL, AQ & Libya. Sid May 2, 2011 For: Hilary From: Sid é Re: Bin Laden, AQ & Libya Latest report: During the earty morning of May 2, 2011 souroes with access tothe leadership of the Libyan rebelion’s ruling Transilonal ‘National Council (TNC) stated in confidence that they are concerned thet the death of al Qa'da leader Osama Bin Laden ‘wl Inspr al Qaida in the Istamto Maghreb (AIM) to use weapons they have obtained, which were orginal intended forthe rebels in Libya, to retaliate agaist the Uniied States and its alles fr this attack in Pakistan. These indivituals fear thatthe use of the weapons inthis manner will compfioats the TNC's relationship with NATO and the United States, \whose support is vital fo them in thelr struggle wit the forces of Muammar al Gaddafi. In this regard they are conosmed int. 5 fics baeve report, olen crete hy he Trpol Govenment, regarthgthe degree of once everied on the TNC. ‘These individuals note thatthe TNC officials are reacting o reports received during the week of April 25 from thelr own ‘souroes of information, the French General Directorate for Exiemal Security (GSE), and Bish external inteligence ‘service (MI-8), stating that AGIM has acquired about 10 SAM 7- Grall/Streala man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS or MPADS) from llegal weapons markets in Western Niger and Northem Mall, These weapons were ‘originally intended for sale to the rebel forces in Libya, but AQIM operatives were able fo meet secretly with these arms dealers and purchase the equipment. The acquistlon of these sophisticated weapons creates a serious threat to ar trafic fh Sauthem Morocea, Algeria, Northom Mall, Westom Niger, and Eastern Mauttania, (Source Comment: According to very sensitive sources, the Libyan rebels are concemed that ACIM may also obtaln ‘SPIGOTT whe-guided anti-tank missiles and an unspecified number of Russian anti-tank mines made of plastic and undetectable by antl-mine equipment. This equipment again wes coming through Niger and Mal, and was intended for the ‘obels in Libya. They nate that AGIM fs very strong inthis region of Northwest Africa)Inthe opinion of these knowledgeable individuals, Libyan rebel commanders are also concerned that the death of Bin [Laden comes ata time when sensitive information indicates tha the leaders of AQIM are planning to launch atiacks ‘across North Afica end Europe In an effort fo reassert thelr relevance during the ongoing upheavals in Libya, as well as the rest of Nowth Africa and the Middle East, They beliove the first step in this campaign was the Apri 30 bombing of & ‘café in Marrakesh, Morocco thal ls frequented by Wester tourkss, These Individuals point ut that AQIM also maintains a wide reach ia Europe. ‘The TNC leaders are algo concemed thet, wih the death of Saf al-Arab Gaddaf, the youngest son of Muammar Qackaf, tho Trpoll Goverment may pursue retalatton against the United States and its Westom alles through surrogate terrorist ‘groups, particularly Hezbollah. While the deaths of Bin Laden and Saif alArab are completely uncelated, two separate ‘and very dangerous groups will now be looking for revenge against the U.S. and is allies. (Gouree Comment: These knowledgeable sources belleve thatthe leaders ofthe TNC are also worried about the reaction tothe death of in Laden among rebel fighters and thelr supporters in Libya and Egypl, where the al Qa'ida leader was ‘ery popular. These TNC officals do not want the death of Bin Laden to affect thek relations withthe West or thelr support from NATO, the U.8,, France, oF Great Brian.)CONFIDENTIAL ‘May 2, 2011 Re: Bin Laden, AQ & Libya Latest report: During the early morning of May 2, 2011 sources with aocess tothe leadership of the Libyan rebeltion’s ruling Transitional National Council (TNC) stated in confidence that they are ‘concemed that the death of al Qa’ida leader Osama Bin Laden will inspire al Qa’ida in the {Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) to use weapons they have obtained, which were originally intended for the rebels in Libya, to retaliate against the United States and its allies for ths attack in Pakistan. ‘These individuals fear thatthe use of the weepons in this manner will complicate the TNC’s relationship with NATO and the United States, whose support is vital to them in their strugste ‘with the forces of Muammar al Qaddafi. In this regard they are concemed that U.S. officials will believe reports, often created by the Tripoli Government, regarding the degree of influence exercised by AQIM on the TNC. ‘These individuals note that the TNC officials are reacting to reports received during the week of April 25 from their own sources of information, the French General Directorate for External Security (DGSE), and British external intelligence service (MI-6), stating that AQIM has acquired about 10 SAM 7- Grail/Streela man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS or PADS) from illegal weapons markets in Western Niger and Northern Mali. These weapons ‘were originally intended for sale to the rebel forces in Libya, but AQIM operatives were able to set secretly with these erms dealers and purchase the equipment. The acquisition of these sophisticated weapons creates a serious threat to air traffic in Southem Morocco, Algeria, ‘Norther Mali, Westen Niger, and Eastem Mauritania. (Source Comment: According to very sensitive sources, the Libyan rebels are concerned that AQIM may also obtain SPIGOTT wire-guided anti-tank missiles and an unspecified number of Russian anti-tank mines made of plastic and undetectable by anti-mine equipment. This ‘equipment again was coming through Niger and Mali, and was intended forthe rebels in Libya. ‘They note that AQIM is very strong in this region of Northwest Aftica.)In the opinion of these knowledgeable individuals, Libyan rebel commanders are also concerned thatthe death of Bin Laden comes ata time when sensitive information indicates thatthe leaders ‘of AQIM are planning to launch attacks across North Aftica and Europe in an effort to reassert their retevance during the ongoing upheavals in Libya, as well as the rest of North Aftica and the ‘Middle East. They believe the first step inthis campaign was the April 30 bombing of a café in Marrakesh, Morocco that is frequented by Wester tourists. These individuals point out that ‘AQIM also maintains a wide reach in Burope. ‘The TNC leaders are also concerned that, wth the death of Saif al-Arab Quddf, the youngest 100 of Muammar Qeddafi the Tripoll Government may pursue retaliation against the United States and its Wester allies through surrogate terrorist groups, particularly Hezbollah. While the deaths of Bin Laden and Saif al-Areb are completely unrelated, two separate and very dangerous groups will now be looking for revenge against the U.S. and its allies. (Source Comment: These knowledgeable sources believe thet the leaders of the TNC are also ‘worried about the reaction to the death of Bin Laden among rebel fighters and their supporters in Libya and Egypt, where the al Qa’ida leader was very popular. These TNC officials do not want the death of Bin Laden to affect their relations with the West or their support from NATO, the US, France, or Great Britain.)I Sullvan, Jecob J Friday, May 6, 2011 207 AM # from: Sent: Ter Subject: Re: H: UBL, AQ & Libya, Sid Strikes me as a fitle strange. But certainly disturbing. | will pass info on. More to pass on—disturbing, if true. Fro EE cats sorte Sent: Monday, My 02, 2011 09:12 AH CONFIDENTIAL, May 2, 2011 Latest report ‘uring the earfy morning of May 2, 2011 sources with access tothe leadership ofthe Libyan rebeltion's ruling Transitional ‘National Council (TNC) staled in confidence that they are concerned thatthe deeth of al Qe"da teader Osama Bin Laden ‘ill inspire al Qa'ka in the Isiamic Maghreb (AQIM fo use weapons they have obtained, which were originally intended {or the rebels in Libya, to retaliate against the United States anv ts alles for ths altack in Pekistan. ‘These Individuals fear thatthe use ofthe weapons inthis manner will complicate the TNC's relationship with NATO and the United States, \whose supports vital to them In heir struggle withthe forces of Muammar al Gaddaf. In this regard they are conoered {hetU.S. offile wil beleve reports, often created by the Tripoli Government, regarding tha degree of uence exercised by AGIM on the TNC. ‘These individuals note that the TNC officials are reacting to reports received during the week of April 25 from their own. ‘s0ur0es of information, the French General Directorate for External Security (DGSE), and Britsh external inteligence ‘service (MI-), stating that AQIM has acquired about 10 SAM 7- GrallStreela man-portable ai-defense systems(MANPADS or MPADS) from illegal weapons markets in Wester Niger and Northern Mall, These weapons were: ‘originally Intended forsale tothe rebel foroes In Libya, but AGIM operatives were able to meet secretly with these arms Sealer and puss tbe equpmen. The sequin of hee chile! weapons cea a scan Ueno a aie Wn Southern! Algeria, Northern Mall, Western Niger, and Mauritania. (Source Comment: According o vary senskive sources, the Libyen rebels are concerned that AIM may also obtain 'SPIGOTT wre-guided anti-tank miasies and an unspeciied number of Russian ant-tank mines made of plastic and Lndetectable by antlmine equipment. This equipment again was coming trough Niger and Mall, and wae intended forthe rebels in Lbye. They note thet AIM le very strong inthis region of Northwest Aca.) In the opinion of these knowledgeable Individuals, Libyan rebel commanders are also concerned that the death of Bin [Laden comes at tie when senskive information indicates thatthe leaders of AQIM are planning to launch attacks ‘across North Attica and Europe inn effort to reassert thelr relevance during the ongoing upheavals In Libya, 28 woll ax the rest of North Afica end the Middle East. They baieve the fir step nthe campaign wae the Apr! $0 bombing of @ caf Maren, Woroceo at Reqenied by Weer oat. These advil oct at AQ lo meting ‘side reach in Europe. ‘The TNC leaders are alao concerned that, with the death of aif al-Arab Qaddaf, the youngest son of Muammar Qaddafi, {be Trpoll Government may pursue retalation against he United States and ite Wester alles through surrogate tarorat ‘groups, particulety ‘White the Geathe of Bin Laden and Saif al.Arab are completely unrelated, two separate [and very dangerous groupe wit now be tocking for revange againat the U.S. and ts alles, (Gource Comment: ‘sourcas belave tha the leaders of the TNC are aiso worted about the reaction {ike doctor Lager among eel Ages and ta euppriers in bya ana Egypt uber the al Ga loader won ‘very popular. These TNC officiel do net want the death of Bin Laden to affect ther relations with the West or thelr ‘support from NATO, tre U.8., France, or Gret Brin.)From: sbwhoeo, Sent: Friday, June: [238 PM Te: 4 Subject: H: New memo: Q's secret bid to UK. Sid CONFIDENTIAL June 3, 2011 For: Hillary From: Sid Re: Q's seoret bid to UK. (On the morning of June 2, 2011 sensitive sources with access to the advisors to Muammar Qaddafi’s son, Saif al-Islam, stated in strict confidence that the Libyan government has opened extremely complicated negotiations with the government of the United Kingdom (UK) in an effor: to obtain their support in reaching a ceasefire ‘agreement with the rebels of the Libyan Transitional National Council (TNC), allowing the Qaddafi’s to maintain some level of control in the country. ‘This initiative is directed by Saif alslam and, aecotding to these sensitive sourees, the Libyans have asked the UK officials to broker a deal with the TNC that will allow some form of power sharing, with the possibility of Saif al-Islam acting as head of state and the TNC members making up a substantial portion of the cabinet in a ‘ew government, ‘Under the plan Muammar Qaddafi would be allowed to leave the country and go into exile ‘with no danger of indictment on charges of human rights abuses and corruption by Libyan or international courts. (Source Comment: In the opinion of these sensitive sources, this initiative reflects the concer of the Qaddafi government that as a result of continuing NATO air raids against their forees, they can no longer defeat the rebel army. They add that there has been no firm response from the UK government, and the initial discussions have been condiscted by officers of the British Special Intelligence Service (SIS / MI-6). In the opinion of these same sources the initial idea of these talks may have been raised by former. Libyan Foreign Minister Mousa Kousa, after his arrival in London in late March 2011.) According to these sensitive sources, Saif al-Islam and his advisors realize that there is little chance the TNC ‘will agree to such an offer, and that SIS may be using this contact as a means of collecting intelligence while protecting British interests in Libya, Notwithstanding this concer, in the opinion of these individuals, Saif al- Islam believes that introducing the possibility of a ceasefire and the subsequent negotiations may create divisions within NATO and weaken their military operations against Qeddafi's forces.(Source Comment: Thess sources add that many of Saif al-Lslam’s advisors do not know if, or to what extent, the UK Government has shared knowledge of this initiative with the governments of the United States and the other NATO allies.) At the same time, sources with access to the operations of the TNC military committee state privately that om. ‘June 1, 2011 Libyan intelligence officers detonated a car bomb outside the Tibesti Hotel in the TNC capital of ‘Benghaai. One person was injured in the blast and a number of nearby vehicles were damaged. TNC security officers occupied the hotel and the surrounding area immediately after the attack, but were not able to identify any of the attackers. The Tibesti Hotel is en important landmark in the heart of Benghazi and is used by the ‘TNC government, as well by forsign journalists and diplomats, Hotel security has beea heightened in the hours following the attack and all foreign residents are under surveillance by TNC security officers, looking for suspicious activities and contacts,From: Sent: To: Subject: sbwhoeop| Friday, June 238 PM H H: memo attached on q secret bid to uk, Sid fhre memo q secret bid UK 060311 docx; hre memo q secret bid UK 060311 docxCONFIDENTIAL June 3, 2011 For: Hillary From: Sid Re: Q's secret bid to UK. On the morning of June 2, 2011 sensitive sources with access to the advisors to Muammar Qauldafi's son, Saif al-Islam, stated in strict confidence thatthe Libyan povernment has opened extremely complicated negotiations with the government of the United Kingdom (UK) in an effort to obtain their support in reaching a ceasefire agreement with te rebels of the Libyan. ‘Transitional National Council (TNC), allowing the Qaddafi’s to maintain some level of control in the country. ‘This initiative is directed by Saif al-Islam and, according to these sensitive sources, the Libyans have asked the UK officials to broker a deal with the TNC that will allow some form of power sharing, with the possibility of Saif al-Islam acting as head of state and the TNC members ‘making up a substantial portion of the cabinet in a new government. Under the plan Muammar ‘Qaddafi would be allowed to leave the country and go into exile with no danger of indictment on charges of human rights ebuses and corruption by Libyan or international courts, (Source Comment: In the opinion of these sensitive sources this initiative reflects the concern of the Qaddafi government that as a result of continuing NATO air raids against thei forces, they ccan no longer defeat the rebel army. They add that there has been no firm response from the UK. government, and the initial discussions have been conducted by officers of the British Special Intelligence Service (SIS / MI-6). In the opinion of these same sources the initial idea of these talks may bave been raised by former Libyan Foreign Minister Mousa Kousa, after his arrival in London in late March 2011.) According to these sensitive sources, Saif el-Islam and his advisors realize that there is little chance the TNC will agree to such en offer, and that SIS may be using this contact as a means of collecting intelligence while protecting British interests in Libya. Notwithstanding this concern, in the opinion of these individuals, Saif al-Islam believes that introducing the possibility of a ceasefire and the subsequent negotiations may create divisions within NATO and weaken theit military operations against Qaddafi’s forces.(Gource Comment:’ These sources add that many of Saif al-[slam’s advisors do not know if, ot to ‘what extent, the UK Government has shared knowledge of this initiative with the governments of the United States and the other NATO allies.) At the same time, sources with scceas tothe operations of the TNC military committe stato privately that on June 1, 2011 Libyan intelligence officers detonated a car bomb outside the Tibesti Hotel in the TNC capital of Benghazi, One person was injured inthe blast and a number of nearby vehicles were damaged, TNC security officers occupied the hotel and the surrounding area immediately after the attack, but were not able to identify any of the attackers. The Tibesti Hotel is an important landmark in the heart of Benghazi and is used by the TNC government, as ‘well by foreign journalists and diplomats. Hotel security has been heightened in the hours following the attack and all foreign residents are under surveillance by TNC security officers, looking for suspicious activities and contacts.CONFIDENTIAL Sune 3, 2011 On the morning of June 2, 2011 sensitive sources with access to the advisors to Muammar addatis son, Saif al-Islam, stated in strict confidence that the Libyan goverment has opened ‘extremely complicated negotiations with the government of the United Kingdom (UK) in an effort to obtain their support in reaching a ceasefire agreement with the rebels ofthe Libyan ‘Transitional National Council (TNC), allowing the Qaddafi’s to maintain some level of control inthe country. “This initiative is dicected by Saif al-Islam and, according to these sensitive sources, the Libyans have asked the UK officials to broker a deal with the T'NC that will allow some form of power sharing, with the possibility of Saif al-Islam acting a head of state and the TNC members ‘making up a substantial portion ofthe cabinet in anew government. Under the plan Muammar ‘Qaddafi would be allowed to leave the country and go into exile with no danger of indictment on ‘charges of human rights abuses and corruption by Libyan or international courts, (Gource Comment: In the opinion of these sensitive sources, this initiative reflects the concem of the Qaddafi government that as a result of continuing NATO air aids against their forces, they ‘ean n0 longer defeat the rebel army. They edd that there has been no firm response from the UK government, andthe intial discussions have been conducted by officers of the British Special Intelligence Service (SIS / MI-6). In the opinion of these same sources the initial idea of these talks may have been raised by former Libyan Foreign Minister Mousa Kouse after his arrival in London in tate March 201 1.) in the opinion ofthese individuals, Saif al-Islam ceasefire and the subsequent negotiations may create divisions within NATO and weaken their military operations against Qaddaf's forces.(Source Comment: These sources add that many of Saif al-Islam’s advisors do not koow if, or to ‘what extent, the UK Government has shared knowledge of this initiative with the governments of the United States and the other NATO allies.) ‘At the same time, sources with access to the operations of the TNC military committee state ‘Privately that on June 1, 2011 Libyan intelligence officers detonated a car bomb outside the ‘Tibesti Hotel in the TNC capital of Benghazi. One person wes injured in the blast and a number ‘of nearby vehicles were damaged. TNC security officers occupied the hotel and the surounding area immediately after the attack, but were not able to identify any of the attackers. The Tibesti ‘Hotel is an important landmark in the heart of Benghazi and is used by the TNC government, as well by foreign journalists end diplomats, Hotel security bas been heightened in the hours following the attack and all foreign residents are under surveillance by TNC security officers, ooking for suspicious activities and contacts.From: H chrod17@dlintonemallcom> Sent: Friday, June 3, 2011 1:54 PM To cc Subject: Jake-fyi Lauren~pls print, = ooo ‘Sent: Friday, June 03, 2011 12:37 PM ‘To: H ‘Subject: H: New memo: Q's secret bid to UK. Sid CONFIDENTIAL June 3, 2011 For. Hillary From: Sid Re: Q's secret bid to UK (On the morning of June 2, 2011 sensitive sources with access to the advisors to Muammar Qaddafi's son, Saif al-slam, stated in strict confidence that the Libyan government has opened extremely complicated negotiations with the government of the United Kingdom (UK) in an effort to obtain their support in reaching a ceasefire agreement with the rebels of the Libyan Transitional Netional Counc (TNC), allowing the Qaddafi's to maintain some level of control inthe country. ‘This initiative is directed by Stif al-Islam and, according to these sensitive sources, the Libyans have asked the UK officials to broker a deal with the TNC that will allow some form of power sharing, with the possibility of ‘Seif al-Islam acting as head of state and the TNC members making up a substantial portion of the cabinetin & now goverament, Under the plan Muammar Qaddafi would be allowed to leave the country and go into exile ‘with no danger of indictment on charges of human rights abuses and corruption by Libyan or international. courts. (Source Comment: In the opinion of these sensitive sources, this initiative reflects the concern of the Qaddafi ‘government that as a result of continuing NATO air raids against their forces, they can no longer dofeat therebel army. They add that there has been no firm response from the UK government, and the initial discussions ‘have been conducted by officers of the British Special Intelligence Service (SIS / MI-6). In the opinion of these ‘same sources the initial idea of these talks may have been raised by former Libyan Foreign Minister Mousa ‘Kousa, after his arrival in London in late March 2011.) According to these sensitive sources, Saif al-Islam and his advisors realize that there is little chance the TNC ‘will agree to such an offer, and that SIS may be using tis contact as a means of collecting intelligence while ‘protecting British interests in Libya, Notwithstanding this concem, in the opinion of these individuals, Saif al- Islam believes that introducing the possibility of a ceasefire and the subsequent negotiations may create divisions within NATO and weaken their military operations against Qaddafi's forces, (Gource Comment; These sources add that many of Suif al-Islam’s advisors do not know if, or to what extent, the UK Government has shared inowledge of this initiative with the governments of the United States and the other NATO allies.) ‘At the same time, sources with access to the operations of the TNC military committee state privately that on June 1, 2011 Libyan intelligence officers detonated a car bomb outside the Tibesti Hotel in the TNC capital of Benghazi. One person was injured in the blast and a number of nearby vehicles were damaged. TNC socurity officers occupied the hotel and the surrounding area immediately ater the attack, but were not able to identify any ofthe attackers. The Tibesti Hotel is an important landmark in the heart of Benghazi and is used by the ‘TNC government, as well by foreign journalists and diplomats. Hotel security has been heightened inthe hours following the attack and all foreign residents aro under surveillance by TNC secutity officers, looking for suspicious activities and contacts.En From Sullivan, Sacob J Sent: Friday, June 3, 2011 7343 PM Te: 4 Subject: RE: Ht New mamo: Q's sacrat bid to UK. Sid Interesting. rom: H [malto: HORZ2@dintonemal.com) ‘Sent: Friday, June 03, 2011 1:54 PM ‘Ta: Suliver, Jacob 3 (Ger Hoty, Lauren C ‘Subojoct: Pw: Ht: New memo: (fs secret bid to UK. Sid To: ‘Subject: H; New memo: Q's secret bid to UK. Ski CONFIDENTIAL June 3, 2011 nthe morning of June 2, 2011 sensitive sources with access tothe advisors to Muammar Qaddaii's son, Saif al-Islam, stated in strict confidence that the Libyan government has opened extremely complicated negotiations ‘with the government of the United Kingdom (UK) in an effort to obtain their support in reaching a ceasefire agreement with the rebels ofthe Libyan Transitional National Council (TNC), allowing the Qaddaf's to maintain some level of control in the country. “This initiative is dicected by Saif al-Islam and, according to these sensitive sources, the Libyans have asked the UK officials to broker a deal with the TNC that will alow some form of power sharing, with the possibility of ‘Saif al-Islam acting as head of state and the TNC members making up a substantial portion of the eabinet in anew government, Under the plan Muammar Qaddafi would be allowed to leave the country and go into exile with no danger of indictment on charges of human rights abuses and corruption by Libyan ot intemational courts. (Source Comment: In the opinion of these sensitive sources, this initiative reflects the concer of the Qaddafi government that as a result of continuing NATO air raids against their forces, they can no longer defeat the rebel army. They add that there has been no firm response from the UK government, and the initial discussions hhave been conducted by officers of the British Special Intelligence Service (SIS / MI-6). In te opinion of these same sources the initial idea ofthese talks may have been raised by former Libyan Foreign Minister Mousa Kouse, after his arrival in London in late March 2011.) According to these sensitive sources, Saif al-Islam and his advisors realize that there is little chance the TNC will agree to such an offer, and that SIS may be using this contact as a means of collecting intelligence while British interests in Libya. Notwithstanding this concern, in the opinion of these individuals, Saif al- Inlam believes that introducing the possibility of ceasefire anu the subsequent negotiations may create divisions within NATO and weaken their military operations against Qaddafi's forces. (Source Comment: These sources add that many of Saf al-Islam’s advisors do not know if, otto what extent, the UK Goverment bas shared knowledge ofthis initiative with the governments of the United States and the other NATO allies ) ‘At the same time, sources with access to the operations of the TNC military committee state privately that on. June 1, 201 1 Libyan intelligence officers detonated a car bomb outside the Tibesti Hotel in the TNC capital of ‘Benghazi. One person was injured in the blast and a number of nearby vehicles were damaged. TNC security officers occupied the hotel and the surrounding area immediately after the attack, but were not able to identify any of the attackers. The Tibesti Hote! is an important landmark in the heart of Benghazi and’is used by the ‘INC government, es well by foreign journalists and diplomats. Hotel security has been heightened in the hours following the attack and all foreign residents are under surveillance by TNC seourity officers, looking for ‘suspicious activities and contacts. .ee From: sbwhoeop EE Sent: Monday, August 8 2011 7:04 PM To: H Subject: H: Who killed Younis and why. Sid Attachments; fire memo who kled younis 090811.docx, hrc memo who ted younis 0808 11.docx CONFIDENTIAL ‘August, 2011 For: Hilary From: Sid Re: Who killed Younis GOURCE: Sources wih access tothe LbyanTrantional Nation! Count aa well ae Wester ntaligence and socurty series. ‘During the moming of August 5, 2011 sources with direct access to sonir levels ofthe Libyan Transnational Counc (TNC) stated in stictest confidence thatthe rebel miltary commander, General Abdel Fatan Younis was exocaited by srearty forces on orders from TNC Chalman Mustapha Jal. According fo these sources, in lata July 2011 TNC security Ofcers received what they beliaved to be relable Information that Younis was involved in a saoret dialogue with Sait fsiam Geddaf, the eon of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafl. These discussions involved planning for Younis and Saif st {slam to establish e government of reconcllation, wth Muernmar Qaddafi ling in intemal exile, and the TNC being Gebanded in favor of offlas, and milary officers loyal to Saif ané Younis. Jal ordered Younis’ arrest, and once he was In TNC custody Instructed securty officers to shoot the army commander. ‘According to these kn individuals, Jalil and his supporters began disseminating the story that Younis was fated by ether pro-Caaddafl forces, or Islamic racic within the TNC miltary. There s ne Indcation that rebel Prime, Ministet Mahmoud Jab, bie senior aid Abdul Hafiz. Ghoza, overall miltary commander General Abdelessalem Jatloud, or ‘Younis roplacament ae ald commander General Khalifa Haar were involved in the decision to execute Younis. ‘Younis, was a former senior military officer and Minister of Interior in the Qaddafi regime, who joined the rebels in February 2071, efter serving his friend Muammar Gadde for over 40 years. When Younis first jlned the rebel forces ‘TNC secur offcers placed hin under survellance, believing that he might have been sent by Caddaftoinfitrate thelr Tanks, After a varity ofoyally tests he wes welcomed into he rebel leadership, however, it now appears thatthe security aficararained he coverape of Younis ad at some oint in early July established his contact with Saif alslem (Source Comment: Knowledgeable sources state that Jalil and his secuy forces fel that Younis’ actions posed an {mediate threat to the TNC and the ongoing revolution, Jal made the decision to order Younis’ arrest and execution rather than submit the maler for debate n the 31 member TNC. To date these sources add that there is no indleation that none of the TNC members have challenged Jaits decision.)Jail remains committed to defeating the Qaddafi regime and is unwiling to negotiate with Saif a-istam, or another ‘representative of Muammar Qaddafl. Acoording to these sources, Jail beleves reports thatthe Saif - Younls negotiations: had atleast the tacit support of the governments ofthe United States, Germany, France, and Russia, (Gource comment: A separate sensitive source noted that Jalil remains highly suspicious of the activities of the four ‘govemments, and has privately expressed hostity toward their representatives in TNC capital of Benghazl. That said he 's well aware ofthe fact that he wil need the support ofthe major powers, particularly the United States, to guarantee the future ofthe TNC government)CONFIDENTIAL, ‘Angus 8, 2011 For: Hillary From: Sid Re: Who killed Younis SOURCE: Sources with access to the Libyan Transitional National Council as well as Western Intelligence and security services. During the morning of August 5, 2011 sources with direct access to senior levels ofthe Libyan ‘Transnational Council (TNC) stated in strictest confidence thatthe rebel military commander, Generel Abdel Fatah Younis was executed by security forces on orders from TNC Chairman Mustapha Jalil. According to these sources, in late July 2011 TNC seoutity officers received ‘what they believed to be reliable information thet Younis was involved in a secret dialogue with Saif al-Islam Qaddafi the son of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi. These discussions involved planning for Younis and Seif al-Islam to establish a government of reconciliation, with ‘Muammar Qaddafi living in intemal exile, and the TNC being disbanded in favor of officials, ‘and military officers loyal to Saif and Younis. Jalil ordered Younis’ arrest, and once he was in ‘TNC custody instructed security officers to shoot the army commander. According to these knowledgeable individuals, Jalil and bis supporters began disseminating the story that Younis was killed by either pro-Quddafi forces, or Islamic radicals within the TNC military, There is no indication that rebel Prime Minister Mahmoud Jabril, his senior aid Abdul Hafiz Ghoza, overall military commander General Abdelessalem Jalloud, or Younis replacement 4s field commander General Khalifa Haftar were involved in the decision to execute Younis. ‘Younis, was a former senior military officer and Minister of Interior in the Qaddafi regime, who joined the rebels in February 2011, after serving his friend Muammar Qaddafi for over 40 years, ‘When Younis first joined the rebel forces TNC security officers placed him under surveillance, believing that he might have been sent by Qaddafi to infiltrate their ranks, Aftera variety of loyalty tests he was welcomed into the rebel leadership, however, it now appears that the security officers maintained their coverage of Younis and at some point in early July established his contact with Saif al-Islam Qaddafi.(Source Comment: Knowledgeable sources state that Jalil and his security forces felt that ‘Younis’ actions posed an immediate threat to the TNC and the ongoing revolution, Jalil made the decision to order Younis’ arrest and execution rather than submit the matter for debate in the 31 member TNC. To date these sources add that there is no indication that none of the TNC. ‘members have challenged Jalil's decision) Jalil remains committed to defeating the Qaddafi regime and is unwilling to negotiate with Saif al-Islam, or another representative of Muammar Qaddsti. According to these sources, Jalil believes reports that the Saif ~ Younis negotiations had at least the tacit support of the governments of the United States, Germany, France, and Russia. (Source comment: .A separate sensitive source noted that Jalil remains highly suspicious of the Activities of the four governments, and has privately expressed hostility toward their representatives in TNC capital of Benghazi, That said he is well aware ofthe fact tat he will need the support of the major powers, particulary the United States, to guarantee the future of the TNC government.)aa sou ‘Thursday, January 5, 2012 12:26 PM From: Sent: To: H Subject: H: latest intel oyan conf, leaders & militias, Si ‘Adtachments: fre memo, Noyan_Jeaders. fc militias, 0105 12docx ‘CONFIDENTIAL January §, 2012 For: HRC From: Sid Re: Libyan leadership and militias SOURCE: Sources with direct access to the Libyan National Transitional Council, as well as the highest levels of European Governments, and Western Intelligence and security services, 1. Duting the last week of December 2011, and the first week of 2012, Libya's Prime Minister ‘Abdurrahim el-Ketb and President Mustafa Abdul Jalil engaged in a series of emergency planning, meetings attempting to dea! with specific issues threatening the stability of the new National ‘Transitional Counell (NTC) Government. According to extremely sensitive sources speaking in strict confidence, paramount among these issues are the questions of disarming and rewarding the regional militias who bore the majority of the fighting against the regime of Muammar al Qaddafi, as well as the related issue of finding ministers and senior administrators for the new government who are acceptable to these revolutionary forces. ‘These individuals noted that on four occasions, beginning on December 23, 2011, groups or angry militiamen came to el-Kefb's office and demanded better treatment, a clear message of support for the role of Islamic law, and the removal of former Qaddafi advisors from the new government. 2. (Source Comment: In the opinion of very sensitive souice, l-Keib is genuinely concerned ‘that this situation could spiral out of control and threatens the regime. He also suspects that much of ‘the unrest is being stirred by General Abdel Hakim Alamin Belhaj and his conservative Islamist supporters. By staying out ofthe new government, Belhaj has established a position from which be ‘can eriticize their actions and appointments without concern or control. That said, el — Keil has been told by his contacts in the Moslem Brotherhood (MB) that even Belhaj has been surprised that the unrest in the militias has begun to manifest itself in fighting between groups that previously shared ‘the same goals and operated under Belhaj’s loose command, This is particularly true in the case of the increasingly violent conflicts between the Misrata and Zintan regional militias.) ’3, Inan effort to address these problems el-Keib is making changes in his new administration, removing Minister of Eeonomics Taher Sherkaz, who, as a former economic advisor to Qaddafi, was atold by his contacts in the Moslem Brotherhood (MB) that even Belhaj has been surprised that the ‘unrest in the militias has begun to manifest itself in fighting between groups that previously shared the same goals and operated under Bellaj’s loose command. ‘This is particularly true in the ease of the increasingly violent conflicts between the Misrata and Zintan regional militiss.) 4, In.an effort to address these problems el-Keib is making changes in his new administration, removing Minister of Economics Taher Sherkaz, who, as a former economic advisor to Qaddafi, was a particular target of the militiamen. In the opinion of well informed individuals, el-Keib's closest and ‘most influential advisors are experts with economic backgrounds ahd experience dealing with ‘Western firms and governments, ‘The most influential of this group are Minister of Oil Abdulrahman Ben Yezza, Minister of Finance Hassan Ziglam, National Oil Company chief Nuri Berrusien, and Ngeb Obeda from the Libyan Stock Exchange. 4. (Source Comment: In the opinion of a very sensitive source, cl-Keib and Jalil are also very ‘concerned over growing criticism that these technocrats are puppets of various Western governments and firms, Belhaj and the militiamen appear intent on limiting the influence of these Western entities, using them as a weapon to weaken the el-Keib regime. This trend is also affecting national security, where, despite el-Keib’s offorts to maintain a balance between the Islamists, regional commanders, and the national army, a potentially dangerous conflict has arisen over the position of Chief of Staff of the National Army. El-Kieb, according to this individual, believes that he must settle ‘this matter in short order to avoid provoking security concems among foreign allies and businesses contacts.) ‘5. According to a knowledgeable individual, in late December 2011el-Kieb resisted efforts by General Khalifa Belgasim Haftar to establish himself as the Chief of Staff of the National Army. Haftar, who lived in the United States for many years and is believed by Belhaj and others to have a relationship with the U.S. Government, is using his popularity among the officer corps of the regular NTC anmy to support his claim to be Chief of Staff. This produced heated protests from militia leaders and in late December 20%1el-Keib named deputy Minister of Defense Colonel Yussef al- ‘Mangoush, to be Chief of Staff. In the opinion of one source, this is a problematie choice, since el- Keib is replacing the supposedly pro-American Hafter with el-Mangoush who commanded one of Qadafi’s elite Special Forces units, even after the revolution began. This individual believes that el- Keib’s decision was driven by personal animosity toward Haftar, and the influence of Minister of Defense Osama al-Juwali. The situation is far from resolved, as Haftar and his supporters, particularly in the Benghazi garrison, continue to claim that the General is the true Chief of Staff, HI- Keib and al-Juwali are working to reconcile all of the elements in this conflict as quickly es possible, before tho supporters of the two claimants begin fighting. In the meantime, el-Keib has stated im private that he fully expects Belhaj to attack al-Mangoush, but the Prime Minister believes that the Colonel is the only officer strong enough to disarm the militias and avoid a civil war. 6. At the same time, a very sensitive source added that el-Keib and Jalil are attempting to reconcile the fighting between Misrata and Zintan forces in Tripoli by naming Misrata leader Fawzi ‘Abd Ali as Minister of the Interior and el-Juwali, who was commander of the Zintan militia, as Minister of Defense. To date, according to this individual, this effort has met with limited success, as the fighting has continued and the militias are refusing to disarm until their demands regarding living standards are met. 7. (Gouree Comment: One very sensitive source noted, that el-Keib is aware of the fact that he is running out of time to stabilize the situation in Libya. He believes that ifhe does not disarm the ‘ilitias and meet their demands in the next six months there is a good chance of increased fighting among rival groups that could lead to civil war. In any event, he realizes that the ongoing instability will cause Western governments, firms, and banks, to hesitate before committing themselves to long term relationships with Libya. El-Keib believes that Belhaj and his advisors have made the same judament and are {0 fill any vacuum created by this violence, by establishing a conservative ic Republic,CONFIDENTIAL January 5, 2012 For; HRC From: Sid Re: Libyan leadership and militias SOURCE: Sources with direct access to the Libyan National Transitional Council, as well as the highest levels of Buropean Governments, and Western Intelligence and security services. 1. During the last week of December 2011, and the first week of 2012, Libya’s Prime Minister Abdurrahim el-Keib and President Mustafa Abdul Jalil engaged in a series of ‘emergency planning meetings attempting to deal with specific issues threatening the stability of the new National Transitional Council (NTC) Government, According to extremely sensitive ‘sources speaking in strict confidence, paramount among these issues are the questions of Gsarming and rewarding the regional militias who bore the majotity of the fighting against the regime of Muammar al Qaddafi, as well asthe related issue of finding ministers and senior ‘adesinistrators forthe new government who are acceptable to these revolutionary forces, These individuals noted that on four occasions, beginning on December 23, 2011, groups or angry militiamen came to e-Keib’s office and demanded better treatment, a clear message of support for the role of Islemic law, and the removal of former Qaddafi advisors from the new government, 2, (Source Comment: In the opinion of a very sensitive source, ol-Keib is gemuinely ‘concemed that this situation could spiral out of contol and threatens the regime, Hle also ‘suspects that much ofthe unrest is being stired by General Abdel Hakim Alamin Belhaj and his conservative Islamist supporters, By staying out of the new government, Belhaj has established 1 position from which he can criticize thei actions and appointments without concem or control. ‘That said, el -Keib has been told by his contacts in the Moslem Brotherhood (MB) that even Belhaj has been surprised that the unrest in the militias has begun to manifest itself infighting ‘between groups that previously shared the same goals and operated under Belhaj’s loose ‘command. This is particularly tre inthe case ofthe increasingly violent conflicts betwesn the Misrata and Zintan regional militias.) 3. In an effort to address these problems el-Keib is making changes in his new administration, removing Minister of Economics Taber Sherkaz, who, as a former economic. sor to Qaddafi, was a particular target of the militiamen, In the opinion of well informed individuals, el-Keib's closest and most influential advisors are experts with economicbackgrounds and experience dealing with Westem firms and governments. The most: influential: of this group are Minister of Oil Abdulrehman Ben Yezza, Minister of Finance Hassan Zigiam, ‘National Oil Company chief Nuri Berrusien, and Ngeb Obeda ftom the Libyan Stock Exchange, 4, (Source Comment: In the opinion of a very sensitive source, el-Keib and Jalil aro also very concemed over growing criticism that these technocrats are puppets of various Western governments and firms. Bella) and the militiamen appear intent on limiting the influence of ‘these Western entities, using them as a weapon to weaken the el-Keib regime, This trend is also affecting national security, where, despite el-Keib's efforts to maintain a balance between the Islamists, regional commanders, andthe national army, a potentially dangerous conflict hes arisen over the position of Chief of Staff of the National Anmy. EI-Kieb, according to this individual, believes that he must settle this matter in short order to avoid provoking security concerts among foreign allies and businesses contacts.) 3. According to a knowledgeable individual, in late December 2011el-Kieb resisted efforts by General Khalifa Belqasim Haftar to establish himself a the Chief of Staff of the ‘National Army, Haftar, who lived in the United States for many years and is believed by Belhaj ‘and others to have a relationship with the U.S. Government, is using his popularity among the ‘officer corps of the regular NTC army to support his claim tobe Chief of Staff. This produced hheated protests from militia leaders and in late December 201 1el-Keib named deputy Minister of ‘Defense Colonel Yusef al-Mangoush, to be Chief of Staff. In the opinion of one source, this a problematic choice, since el-Keib is replacing the supposedly pro-American Haftar with a: ‘Mangoush who commanded one of Qaddafi’ elite Special Forces units, even after the revolution began. This individual! believes that el-Kei's decision was driven by personal animosity toward Hiaftar, andthe influence of cof Defense Osama al-Juwali. ‘The situation is far fromm resolved, as Haftar and his supporters, particularly in the Benghazi garrison, continue to claim ‘that the General is the true Chief of Staff, Hl-Keib and al-Juwali are working to reconcile all of the elements in this conflict as quickly as possible, before the supporters of the two claimants begin fighting. In the meantime, l-Keib has stated in private tha he fully expects Belhaj to attack al-Mangoush, but the Prime Minister believes thatthe Colonel isthe only officer strong ‘enough to disarm the militias and avoid a civil war. 6. Atthe same time, a very sensitive source added that e-Keib and Jalil are atterapting to reconcile the fighting between Misrata and Zintan forces in Tripoli by naming Misrata leader Fawai Abd Ali as Minister of the Interior and al-Juwali, who was commander of the Zintan silitia, as Minister of Defense. To date, according to this individual, this effort has met with limited siocess, os the fighting bas continued and the militias are refusing to disarm uni their demands regarding living standards are met. 7. (Gource Comment: One very sensitive source noted, that el-Keib is aware ofthe fact that he is running out of time to stabilize the situation in Libya. Ho believes that if he does not disarm the militias and meet their demands in the next six months there is a good chance of increaded fighting among rival groups that could lead to civil war. In any event, he realizes that the ongoing instability will cause Western governments, fitms, and banks, to hesitate before ‘committing themselves to long term relationships with Libya. El-Keib believes that Belhaj and his advisors have made the same judgment, and are waiting to fill any vacuum created by this violence, by establishing a conservative Islamic Republic.)H Thursday, January 5, 2012 5:16 PM ‘sullvanj@stategov Fr H: latest intel libyan confit, leaders & ites. id tre. meme_ fixer leaders fc mites, 10512.doce es Worrying. Pls distribute and request feedback from Jeff, Cretz, etal, From: st [maiito:sbwhc fon ee ot =n ‘Subject: H: latest Intel Ibyan conflicts, leaders & militias. Sid CONFIDENTIAL January 5, 2012 For: HRC From: Sid Re: Libyan leadership and militias SOURCE: Sources with direct access to the Libyan National Transitional Council, as well as the highest levels of European Governments, and Western Intelligence and security services. 2. During the last week of December 2011, and the first week of 2012, Libya’s Prime Minister Abdurrahim el-Keib and President Mustafa Abdul Jalil engaged in a series of emergency planning meetings attempting to deal with specific issues threatening the stability of the new National ‘Transitional Council (NTC) Government. According to extremely sensitive sources speaking in strict confidence, paramount among these issues are the questions of disarming and rewarding the regional tilitias who bore the majority of the fighting against the regime of Muammar al Qaddafi, as well as the related issue of finding ministers and senior administrators for the new government who are acceptable to these revolutionary forces. ‘These individuals noted! that on four occasions, boginning on December 23, 2011, groups or angry militiamen came to el-Keib's office and demanded better treatment, a clear message of support for therole of Islamic law, and the removal of former Qaddafi advisors from the new government. 2, (Source Comment: In the opinion of a very sensitive source, el-Keib is genuinely concerned that this situation could spiral out of control and threatens the regime. He also suspects that much of the unrest is being stirred by General Abdel Hakim Alamin Belhaj and his conservative Islamist supporters, By staying out of the new government, Belhaj has established a position from which he can criticize their actions and appointments without coneern or eontrol. ‘That said, el - Keib has beentold by his contacts in the Moslem Brotherhood (MB) that even Bethaj has been surprised thet the unrest in the militias has begun to manifest itself in fighting between groups that previously shared the same goals and operated under Belhay’s loose command. This is particularly true in the case of the increasingly violent conflicts between the Misrata and Zintan regional militias.) 3. Inan effort to address these problems el-Keib is making changes in his new administration, removing Minister of Economics Taher Sherkaz, who, as a former economic advisor to Qaddafi, was a particular target of the militiamen. In the opinion of well informed individuals, el-Keib's closest and ‘most influential advisors are experts with economic backgrounds and’ ‘dealing with ‘Western firms and governments. The most influential of this group are Minister of Oil Abdulrahman Ben Yeaza, Minister of Finance Hassan Ziglam, National Oil Company chief Nuri Berrusien, and Ngeb ‘Obeda from the Libyan Stock Exchange. 4- (Source Comment: In the opinion of a very sensitive source, el-Keib and Jalil are also very ‘concerned over growing criticism that these technocrats are of various Western and firms. Belhaj and the militiamen appear intent on limiting the influence of these Western entities, using them as a weapon to weaken the el-Keib regime. This trend is also affecting national security, where, despite el-Keib's efforts to maintain a balance between the Islamists, regional commanders, and the netional army, a potentially dangerous contlict has arisen over the position of Chief of Staff of the National Army. El-Kieb, according to this individual, believes that he must settle ie alien in short order to avoid provoking security concerns among foreign allies and businesses contacts.) According to a knowledgeable individual, in late December 2011el-Kieb resisted efforts by Geporal alfa Beloasin Hats to establish hime ashe Chit of Staff of the National Amy. Haftar, who lived in the United States for many years and is believed by Belhaj and others to have a relationship with the U.S. Government, is using his popularity among the officer corps of the regular NIC army to support his claim to be Chief of Staff. This produced heated protests from maflitia leaders and in late December 20i1el-Ketb named deputy Minister of Defense Colonel Yussef al- ‘Mangoush, to be Chiof of Staff, In the opinion of one source, this is a problematic choice, since el- Keib is replacing the supposedly pro-American Haftar with al-Mangoush who commanded one of Qaddaf's elite Special Forces units, even after the revolution began. ‘This individual believes that el- Keib’s decision was driven by personal animosity toward Haftar, and the influence of Minister of Defense Osama al-Juwali. The situation is far from resolved, as Haftar and his supporters, particnlarly in the Benghazi garrison, continue to claim that tne General is the trne Chief of Staff. El- Kelb and al-Juwali are working to reconcile all ofthe elements in this conflict as quickly as possible, before the suppoxters of the two claimants begin fighting. In the meantime, el-Ketb has stated in that he fully expects Belhaj to attack al-Mangoush, but the Prime Minister believes that the Colonel is the only officer strong enough to disarm the militias and avoid a civil war. 6. Atthe same time, a very sensitive source added that el-Keib and Jalil are attempting to reconcile the fighting between Misrata and Zintan forces in Tripoli by naming Misrata leader Fawzi Abd Ali as Minister of the Interior and al-Juwali, who was commander of the Zintan militia, as Minister of Defense. To date, according to this individual, this effort has met with limited success, as the fighting has continued and the militias are refusing to disarm until their demands regarding living standards are met. 7. (Source Comment: One very sensitive source noted, that el-Keib is aware of the fact that he is running out of time to stabilize the situation in Libya. He believes that if he does not disarm the militias and meet their demands in the next six months there is a good chance of increased fighting among rival groups that could lead to civil war. In any event, he realizes that the ongoing instability ‘will eause Western governments, firms, and banks, to hesitate before committing themselves to long term relationships with Libya. EI-Keib believes that Belhaj and his advisors have made the same Judgment, and are waiting to fill any vacuum created by this violence, by establishing a conservative Islamic Republic.)‘CONFIDENTIAL January 5, 2012 For, HRC ‘From: Sid Re: Libyan leadership and militias SOURCE: Sources with direct aocess to the Libyan Notional Transitions! Council, x well as the highest levels of European Governments, and Westem Intelligence and security services. 1. During the est week of December 2011, and the first week af 2012, Libya’s Prime Minister Abdurrahim el-Kelb and President Mustafa Abdul Jalil engaged in a series of emergency planning meetings attempting to deal with specific issued threatening the stability of the new National Transitional Council (NTC) Government. Accanding to extremely sensitive sources speaking in strict confidence, paramount among these issues ere the questions of disarming and rewarding the regional militias who bore the majority of the fighting against the regime of Muammar al Qaddafi, as well as the related issue of finding ministors and senior administrators for the new government who are acceptable to these revolutionary forces. These individuals noted that on four occasions, beginning on December 23, 2011, groups or angry militiamen came to el-Keib’s office and demanded better treatment, a clear message of support for the role of Islamic law, and the removal of former Qaddafi advisors from the new goverment, 2. (Source Comment: In the opinion of a very sensitive source, el-Keib is genuinely ‘concemed that this situation could spiral out of control and threatens the regime, He also suspects that much of the unrest is being stirred by General Abdel Hakim Alamin Belhs) and his conservative Islamist supporters. By staying out of the new government, Bethaj has established 2 position from which he can criticize thelr actions and appointments without concern or control. ‘That said, el - Keib has been told by his contacts in the Moslem Brotherhood (MB) that even ‘Bethaj hes been surprised thatthe unrest in the militias has begun to manifest itself in fighting ‘between groups that previously shared the same goals and operated under Belhj’s loose ‘command. This is particularly true in the case of the increasingly violent conflicts between the ‘Miscata and Zintan regional militias.) 3. In an effort to address these problems el-Keib is making changes in his new stration, removing Minister of Economics Taher Sherkaz, who, as a former economic advisor to Qaddafi, was a particular target ofthe militiamen. Inthe opinion of well informed individuals, el-Keib’s closest and most influential advisors are experts with economic