Romania in 2030: The Future

Demographic

August 2011

Population and Homes

Euromonitor International

Romania in 2030
Summary

Population Past, Present and Future

Population Shift
Ageing
Men and Women in Romania
Births and Deaths

Diversity
Population by Ethnicity
Cities
Data
2

Population and Homes

Romania in 2030

Euromonitor International

Summary
Population: 20.3 million
Median Age: 45.6 years
Life Expectancy: 77.8 years

Fastest-growing Major
Cities: 2010-2030
1. Timisoara
2. Bucharest
3. Craiova

Population Age Shift: 2010-2030

500
2010

2030

400

000

300
200
100
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Population by Ethnicity: 2030

Romanians

Hungarians

Romani

Ukrainians

Turks

Russians

Tatars

Germans

Serbs

Slovaks

Greeks

Bulgarians

Other

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%
3

Population and Homes

Romania in 2030

Euromonitor International

Population past, present and future

Age Structure of the Population at a Glance: 1980-2030
(Each dot represents a single-year age group)

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

Reading the chart: This heat chart depicts changes in the age structure of the
population over time. Each dot represents the number of people in a specific (single
year) age group in a given year. Accordingly, a dark red dot shows the largest
concentration of people, by age, in a particular year while deep blue dots refer to the
lowest concentrations. The areas of red therefore represent a large potential market
in demographic terms.

In 2030, the population of

Romania will reach 20.3 million, a

decrease of 5.6% from 2010. This
decline will be driven by huge
decreases in the population aged
20-35 in particular, which will
decline by 36.5%.
All age groups below 43 years will
see a decline in numbers between
2010 and 2030. The steepest
decline in both percentage terms
and actual numbers will be for
those aged 20-35. This segment
will lose 2.0 million people
between 2010 and 2030.
A rapid ageing process is
underway and those aged 43 plus
will see an increase of 23.1%
between 2010 and 2030.
These trends are being driven by
a combination of factors. Most
notably changes in the natural
rate of change caused by the
low birth rate and the ageing
population; the emigration of
young adults has also played an
important role in future
demographic trends.
4

Population and Homes

Romania in 2030

Euromonitor International

Population shift
The population peaked in 1990 at 23.2 million. In 2010 it had fallen by 7.5%, and in 2030 it is expected to be 12.8%

Population by Age: 2010 and 2030

2010

2030

000

400
300
200

Population aged 0-42

will be smaller in 2030

100

23,000
Total Population - 000

500

22,500

Total Population and Population

Density: 1980s-2020s
Total Population
Population Density

94

21,500

92

21,000

90

20,500

88
86

19,500
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

98
96

22,000

20,000
0

100

84

Population Density - Persons per

sq kilometre

below its peak at 20.3 million. According to the UN, the population will continue to fall to at least 2100, when it will
reach 14.8 million 26.7% lower than we expect in 2030.
The rate of decline was at its sharpest during the 1990s and early 2000s as a result of the social and economic
upheaval during the transition from planned to market economy. In the 1990s it averaged -0.5% per annum,
compared to -0.2% in the 2000s and an expected -0.3% in the 2020s. The reason for the acceleration of the decline
in the 2020s is the sharp fall in the number of women of childbearing age. The number of women aged 15-49 is
expected to fall by 19.6% between 2010 and 2030.
All age groups under 43 years are expected to fall in size between 2010 and 2030. The decline will be the steepest
for those aged 20-35 followed by the 0-4s. The 20-35s peaked in numbers in 2002, and the 0-4s in 1979.
Population density is also declining. The area around Bucharest and the North East of the country are the most
heavily populated.

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s

5

Population and Homes

Romania in 2030

Euromonitor International

Ageing
As in much of Eastern Europe, the population is ageing at a swift pace. The median age stood at 38.3 years in 2010

and is set to increase to 45.6 years in 2030. Between 1980 and 2030 it should increase by 15 years. This trend is
typical of Eastern Europe, and in 2010 Romania had the same median age as the regional average. However,
ageing is occurring at a slightly faster rate in Romania so the median age is set to increase to above the regional
average age by 2030.
The population aged 0-14 peaked in 1982 at 6.1 million and in 2030 will be 56.1% lower than this peak.
The population aged 65+ is set to overtake that aged 0-14 in 2014. This is a huge shift, over a short period of time. In
1980 there were almost three 0-14s for every person aged 65+.
The population aged 65+ is and will continue to grow at a fast rate (by 27.4% 2010-2030), at a time when the total
population is shrinking. The old old (i.e. those aged 80+) are expected to grow faster again almost twice as fast
as the population aged 65+. These trends are due to increasing life expectancy, driven in part by lower infant
mortality, which is set to reach 77.8 years in 2030, as well as low birth rates.

8,000
7,000

Population Aged 0-14 and 65+:

1980-2030
Population Aged 65+

400

Population Aged 0-14

300
1980 = 100

5,000
4,000

3,000
2,000

250

200
150
100

1,000
0
1980

Total
Population Aged 65+
Population Aged 80+

350

Population 65+
overtakes 0-14 in 2014

6,000
000

Growth Indices: 1980-2030

50
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030
6

Population and Homes

Romania in 2030

Euromonitor International

Men and women in Romania

Age Pyramid: 2010 and 2030

In 2010, the population pyramid has a strange dip

indicating a relatively smaller number of Romanians in

their 40s. As would be expected, by 2030 this dip is
indicating a relatively small number of Romanians in
their 60s. This is due to a sharp decline in birth rates in
the 1960s caused by a 1957 law which allowed for
abortion on demand. In the 1960s abortions
outnumbered live births by a wide margin.
Both the male and female population is ageing rapidly.
The median age of females will be 47.3 years in 2030
7.4 years greater than in 2010. The median age of
males will also rise by 7.4 years in 2010-2030 to 44.1
years.
Amongst men, those between 40 and 49 years will be
the largest group in 2030 (16.7% of all males) while in
2010 the most populous group was 30-39 years. The
same age groups are the most populous for females. A
combination of factors is behind these shifts including
population ageing and emigration.
In 2030, for the most part males under 54 years will
slightly outnumber females while the reverse will be
true for those aged 54 and over and the gap widens
with age. There will be 77.2% more women aged 80+
than men by 2030.
Females born in 2030 are expected to outlive males by
6.0 years, compared to 7.0 years for those born in
2010. The gap is due to healthier lifestyles amongst
women.
7

Population and Homes

Romania in 2030

Euromonitor International

Births and deaths

Births and fertility rates have been on a generally downwards trend since the 1970s. This trend accelerated following

the overthrow of Ceausescu in 1989.

The fertility rate bottomed out in 2002 at 1.3 births per female. It fell by 48.1% between 1980 and 2002. The rate rose
to 1.4 children per female in 2010, and is expected to rise slightly further to 1.5 children per female in 2030. It has
been below replacement rate (2.1 children per female) since 1990. The reversal of the downward trend is due to the
effect of the previous postponement of births and increasing prosperity.
The average age at childbirth was 27.4 in 2010 and is expected to rise to 29.1 in 2030 due to women having fewer
children and postponing childbirth this latter trend has accelerated since Romania joined the EU.
The birth rate is below both the EU and Eastern European average and will continue to be so in 2030.
The death rate peaked in 1996 at 12.9 deaths per 000 population. By 2010 it fell to 12.0 and it is expected to remain
broadly stable to 2030. This is despite the ageing population and is due to improvements in lifestyle, greater
prosperity and improved healthcare. Diseases of the circulatory system were the most common cause of death in
2010.

Mean Age at Childbirth: 1980s-2020s

Birth Rates: 1980s-2020s

30

18

28.7

29
27.8

28

14
10.1

10

26.5

27

11.2

12

9.7
8.2

Years

Per 000 inhabitants

16

16.1

26

25.3

25.1

1980s

1990s

25
24

23

22

21

20
1980s

1990s

2000s

2010s

2020s

2000s

2010s

2020s
8

Population and Homes

Romania in 2030

Euromonitor International

Diversity
The World Bank estimates that in 2010 there were 132,800 immigrants, equivalent to 0.6% of the population. 51.3%

were female and just 1.3% were refugees. The most favoured countries of origin include: Moldova, Bulgaria, Ukraine,
Russia, Syria, Hungary, Greece, Turkey, Italy and Germany.
Romania (along with Poland and Bulgaria) has one of the lowest proportions of foreign citizens in the EU.
Romanians on the other hand are the most mobile nationality in the EU. Hundreds of thousands left when the
borders opened following the 1989 revolution many ethnically driven with the majority being ethnic Germans and
Hungarians.
In 2008, the EU-27 Member States received 384,000 Romanian citizens. Between 2001 and 2009, the number of
Romanians residing outside their country increased most notably of all EU member states.

Net Migration: 1980-2030

1980
50

1990

2000

2010

2020

The World Bank estimates that in 2010 a total of

2030

-50
-100

000

-150
-200

-250
-300
-350
-400
-450

2.8 million Romanians lived outside the borders,

equivalent to 13.1% of the population.
The most popular countries of emigration are:
Italy, Spain, Hungary, Israel, the USA, Germany,
Canada, Austria, France, and the UK.
After 2008, emigration tailed off substantially
due to the effects of the recession. Many
Romanians left Spain and Italy in particular.
The exodus of young adults has had an impact
on the age structure of the population and has
been one of the drivers of ageing.
As a country of emigration, remittances are an
important contributory factor to the economy
and individual incomes. In 2010, Romania
received $4.4 billion, equivalent to US$205 per
capita.
9

Population and Homes

Romania in 2030

Euromonitor International

Population by ethnicity
Immigration was slight before 2000, however European Union (EU) accession, an improving economic situation,

Population by Ethnicity: 2010/2030

100%
98%
96%
94%
92%
90%
88%
86%
2010

2030

Other
Bulgarians
Greeks
Slovaks
Serbs
Germans
Tatars
Russians
Turks
Ukrainians
Romani
Hungarians
Romanians

Population by Language: 2010/2030

100%
Other

98%
% of total population

% of total population

accompanied by labour shortages have led to an increase in the use of foreign workers.
In 2010, 89.3% of the population were ethnic Romanians. Romania is home to a diverse number of minorities, the
largest minority in 2010 was Hungarian, accounting for 6.3% of the population. In 2030, the situation will remain
broadly unchanged.
Ethnic Germans are the group which are seeing the sharpest declines. This is due to many emigrating to Germany.
The diverse nature of Romanias ethnic composition is due to its geographic location. Ethnic minority populations are
greatest in Transylvania and the Banat areas in the north and west of Romania, which were both previously part of
the Hapsburg Empire.
In 2030, 91.2% of the population are expected to speak Romanian. The largest minority language is and will continue
to be Hungarian in line with population trends.

96%
Romanes

94%
92%

Hungarian
90%
88%
Romanian
86%
2010

2030
10

Population and Homes

Romania in 2030

Euromonitor International

Cities
Romanias 10 Biggest Cities: 2010/2020/2030

1986 marked the year when the urban population

first outnumbered the rural. By 2010, urban dwellers

accounted for 54.6% of the population. By 2030,
this proportion is forecast to increase to 63.1%.
The rural population peaked in the 1950s. In 2030,
it will be 23.3% lower than it was in 2010.
Conversely the urban population continues to
expand even as the population as a whole
declines. In 2030, it will be 9.0% higher than it was
in 2010 (compared to a 5.6% fall in total
population).
The North-East, south and south-west are the least
urbanised regions.
The capital, Bucharest is by far the largest city with
a population of 1.9 million in 2010, more than 6
times higher than the second largest city, Timisoara.
By 2030 it is expected to reach 2.1 million and
should account for one-in-six urban dwellers.
Timisoara in the west is expected to be the
countrys fastest-growing major city between 2010
and 2030. During this period it is expected to
increase by 11.9% to reach 348,511 inhabitants.
Timisoara has benefited from Romanias accession
to the EU due to its strategic location.
Of the 10 biggest cities, two are expected to decline
between 2010 and 2030 Iasi and Braila by 2.2%
and 1.8%, respectively.
11

Population and Homes

Euromonitor International

Data
Population by 5-Year Age Group

Male Population by 5-Year Age Group

Female Population by 5-Year Age Group
Vital Statistics
Population by Ethnicity
Population by Language

Population by City

12

Population and Homes

Data

Euromonitor International

Population by 5-year age group

000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

0-4

1,116

1,062

1,086

1,066

986

884

804

5-9

1,271

1,108

1,060

1,085

1,066

987

883

10-14

1,739

1,267

1,106

1,059

1,085

1,066

986

15-19

1,639

1,732

1,264

1,104

1,059

1,084

1,066

20-24

1,796

1,631

1,726

1,263

1,106

1,061

1,084

25-29

1,706

1,784

1,624

1,721

1,263

1,107

1,059

30-34

1,720

1,688

1,770

1,616

1,715

1,260

1,103

35-39

1,286

1,699

1,672

1,757

1,607

1,706

1,252

40-44

1,601

1,264

1,677

1,653

1,739

1,591

1,690

45-49

1,555

1,559

1,238

1,645

1,623

1,710

1,567

50-54

1,256

1,495

1,505

1,199

1,599

1,581

1,670

55-59

1,089

1,190

1,421

1,438

1,150

1,542

1,529

60-64

1,225

1,005

1,108

1,334

1,357

1,092

1,473

65-69

1,086

1,089

906

1,011

1,227

1,258

1,020

70-74

872

911

930

786

892

1,093

1,134

75-79

581

658

710

741

639

743

925

80+

392

516

658

782

892

898

1,004

21,929

21,659

21,462

21,260

21,004

20,663

20,250

34.9

36.4

38.3

39.9

41.8

43.8

45.6

TOTAL
Median Age

13

Population and Homes

Data

Euromonitor International

Male population by 5-year age group

000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

0-4

572

546

558

548

507

454

413

5-9

651

567

545

557

547

507

454

10-14

888

648

566

544

557

547

506

15-19

839

884

646

565

544

556

547

20-24

921

834

880

645

565

544

556

25-29

869

914

831

876

644

565

542

30-34

871

859

909

825

872

641

562

35-39

647

858

851

900

818

865

636

40-44

796

632

844

837

886

807

853

45-49

765

766

614

822

816

866

790

50-54

610

723

728

586

789

786

838

55-59

515

564

672

682

552

750

751

60-64

561

459

509

613

628

513

704

65-69

484

476

396

447

544

565

467

70-74

372

384

383

327

378

466

491

75-79

224

263

280

287

252

299

377

80+

139

182

238

282

317

318

362

10,724

10,562

10,451

10,343

10,215

10,048

9,847

32.9

35.1

36.7

38.4

40.3

42.2

44.1

TOTAL
Median Age

14

Population and Homes

Data

Euromonitor International

Female population by 5-year age group

000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

0-4

544

516

528

518

480

430

391

5-9

620

540

515

527

519

480

430

10-14

851

619

539

515

528

519

480

15-19

800

848

617

539

515

528

519

20-24

875

797

846

618

541

517

528

25-29

837

869

793

845

619

542

517

30-34

849

829

861

791

844

619

541

35-39

639

841

821

858

788

841

617

40-44

805

633

832

816

852

784

837

45-49

790

793

624

823

807

844

777

50-54

646

772

777

613

810

795

832

55-59

574

625

750

756

598

792

779

60-64

664

546

599

721

729

579

770

65-69

602

614

510

564

682

693

553

70-74

499

527

547

459

514

627

643

75-79

357

395

430

454

387

444

548

80+

253

334

420

500

575

580

642

11,205

11,097

11,011

10,917

10,789

10,615

10,403

36.9

37.6

39.9

41.5

43.3

45.3

47.3

TOTAL
Median Age

15

Population and Homes

Data

Euromonitor International

Vital statistics
Birth Rates
Live Births (000)

Fertility Rates
Age at Childbirth
Net Migration (000)
Death Rates
Deaths (000)

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

10.7

10.2

10.3

9.7

8.9

8.1

7.7

234.5

221.0

220.5

206.4

186.4

167.0

156.3

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

25.7

26.7

27.4

27.8

28.2

28.7

29.1

-20.7

-7.2

-2.3

1.9

2.9

0.8

0.4

11.7

12.1

12.0

11.9

11.9

11.9

12.1

255.8

262.1

256.6

253.6

249.8

246.1

244.8

Note: Birth and death rates refer to the number per '000 population and fertility rates to the number of children born per female.
Age at childbirth refers to average age of women in years.

16

Population and Homes

Data

Euromonitor International

Population by ethnicity
000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Romanians

19,624

19,363

19,174

18,984

18,748

18,439

18,067

Hungarians

1,472

1,403

1,354

1,316

1,283

1,250

1,216

508

577

625

657

675

683

682

Ukrainians

62

60

59

58

57

55

54

Turks

32

34

35

36

36

36

35

Russians

37

36

35

35

34

34

33

Tatars

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

Germans

67

51

40

32

27

23

20

Serbs

24

21

19

17

16

15

15

Slovaks

18

17

16

16

15

15

15

Greeks

10

10

10

Bulgarians

Jews

Poles

Czechs

Armenians

30

42

51

56

60

62

63

Romani

Other

17

Population and Homes

Data

Euromonitor International

Population by language
000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Romanian

19,944

19,715

19,547

19,371

19,144

18,837

18,463

Hungarian

1,487

1,414

1,363

1,323

1,288

1,254

1,220

Romanes

226

264

291

308

319

324

324

Other

272

265

261

257

253

248

243

18

Population and Homes

Data

Euromonitor International

Population by city
000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Bucharest

1,936

1,927

1,944

1,961

1,992

2,031

2,073

Timisoara

320

311

311

320

330

339

349

Craiova

304

301

300

302

307

313

319

Cluj-napoca

321

313

307

305

307

310

315

Constanta

317

306

302

301

303

307

312

Iasi

324

318

309

301

299

299

302

Galati

303

295

290

288

289

292

296

Brasov

291

280

278

279

283

288

294

Ploiesti

235

231

228

226

227

230

233

Braila
Total Urban
Population

218

216

211

207

205

206

207

11,730

11,622

11,728

11,930

12,194

12,489

12,784

19

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