Strategy

and Mari-me Power in a

Contested Environment:
Na-onal, Military, Mari-me Strategy

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Presenta-on to the 66th Current Strategy Forum
U.S. Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island
June 16-17, 2015

Introduc-on - 66th CSF

Recent trends suggest that the
interna-onal poli-cal landscape is rapidly
becoming more contested and
dangerous The United States ability to
operate in these [contested] spaces to
advance its agenda is being challenged at
all levels and in new ways.

Chinas 9-dash
line ambit claim

First and Second Island Chains

Yulin Naval Base,

Hainan Island
(Type 094 SSBN)

Fiery Cross Reef

Construc-on to End Soon

"China will complete its reclama-on project
soon as part of its South China Sea
construc-on in parts of the Nansha [Spratly]
islands
Once the land reclama-on is complete,
building will begin on facili-es that can "fulll
the relevant func-ons [defense purposes]
Ministry of Foreign Aairs, China, June 16, 2015

Comprehensive Strategy
Without a comprehensive strategy for
addressing the [Chinas] broader policy and
conduct to assert its sovereignty claims in the
South China Sea and East China Sea, including
land-reclama-on and construc-on ac-vi-es,
long-standing interests of the United States,
as well as our allies and partners, stand at
considerable risk.

Comprehensive Strategy
1. Specic ac-ons the United States can take to
slow down or stop Chinas reclama-on
ac-vi-es in the South China Sea.
Assert freedom of naviga-on, over ight by
naval ships and military aircra^
Assert right of innocent passage
Conduct regular military exercises with
allies and strategic partners

Second Thomas Shoal/Ayungin

BRP Sierra
Madre
(LST)
beached in
1999

Comprehensive Strategy
2. Possible benets of releasing intelligence
more regularly about Chinas destabilizing
behavior.
publicizing in a -mely manner details of
Chinese unilateral destabilizing ac-vi-es in
the South China Sea
DOD Annual Report to Congress, PACOM
Posture Statement
State Departments Limits in the Seas series

Comprehensive Strategy
3. What forms of security coopera-on with
China would be inappropriate to con-nue if land
reclama-on ac-vi-es proceed and what forms
of engagement might provide incen-ves for
China to alter its behavior.
Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED),
Strategic Security Dialogue (SSD), Defense
Consulta-ve Talks, Military Mari-me Consulta-ve
Agreement, Defense Policy Coordina-on Talks

Comprehensive Strategy
4. The regions Mari-me Domain Awareness needs.
Con-nue current programs: coastal radar
Southeast Asian Mari-me Security Ini-a-ve
($425 million over ve years)
Coordinate with Japan and Australia
Sale of P-3 Orion
Combined aerial reconaissance and patrol

Comprehensive Strategy
5. How to help regional partners enhance their
own capacity.
Southeast Asian Mari-me Security Ini-a-ve
Coast Guard to Coast Guard coopera-on
Metal Shark Patrol Boats
Bilateral,

Comprehensive Strategy
6. Addi-onal diploma-c engagement with
ASEAN countries or others in the interna-onal
community to support unimpeded access to the
Indo-Pacic mari-me commons.
Con-nued support for implementa-on of
DOC and ASEAN-China Code of Conduct
Support ASEAN centric-regional architecture
US-ASEAN Defence Ministers Mee-ng

Wild Cards
Enhanced Defense Coopera-on Agreement
before Philippines Supreme Court
July 2015 Arbitral Tribunal to hear Claim
brought by the Philippines
Early 2016 Na-onal Party Congress Vietnam
May 2016 Na-onal Elec-ons in the Philippines
Nov. 2016 Na-onal Elec-ons in the U.S.
2016 Arbitral Tribunal could make nal
determina-on