MODUL 9

INFERERENTIAL ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION OF ANALYSIS RESULT

(HYPOTHESIS TEST)

Case 1.
Theoretical Distributions, Confidence Interval, Area under Normal Distribution
For statistical tests, it is important to understand probability theory, theoretical
distributions, confidence intervals (CI), one-tail and two-tail statistical tests, and error
in interpreting hypothesis tests.

Learning Task 1
Discuss the following
1. Explain the definition of probability, marginal probability, conditional probability
and joint probability
Probability: kemungkinanterjadinyasuatukejadian.
Marginal probability: peluangsatukejadianakanterjadi.
o Contoh:
Conditional
probability:
peluangsatukejadianakanterjadikarenasuatukondisi
o Contoh
Joint probability: peluangkejadian A dan B terjadibersamaan
o Contoh
2.

Explain the definition of the addition rule and multiplication rule

Addition
rule
:probabilitasmunculnya
A
atau
B
samadenganjumlahprobabilitaskeduanya
Multiplication rule :probabilitasmunculnya A dan B samadenganhasil
kali probabilitaskeduanya

3.

Table 1. Cross tabulation between economic status

children under 5 years in DesaAmerta 2012
Economic status
Under nourish
Normal
poor
30
35
affluent
10
55
Total
40
90

and nutritional status of

Obese
5
15
20

Total
70
80
150

Based on table above, calculate the probability:

a. What is the probability if we selected one child randomly from
DesaAmerta, will be an under nourish kids in? What type of probability it
is?
40/150=4/15
Marginal probability
b. What is the probability of under-nourish, if the kids from poor family?
What type of probability it is?
30/70=3/7
Conditional probability

c. Probability of a child who is randomly selected from this group will be from
poor family or an obese kid?
70/150 + 20/150 = 90/150 = 3/5
Marginal probability,with addition rule

d. Probability of a child who is randomly selected from this group will be from
affluent family and is obese

15/150 = 1/10
Joint probability

4.

Describe the type of probability distribution of a random variable. Give

examples!
Distribusi probabilitas untuk data kontinu :
o normal distribution
o distribusi T
o distribusi F
o chi-square distribution
Distribusi probabilitas untuk data discrete :
o Binomial
o Poison

5.

Describe the characteristic of normal distribution and the use of normal

distribution?
Kurva berbentuk lonceng simetris (symetrical bell shape)
Mean = median = modus
Disusun dari variabel random tertentu
Mean + 1 SD = 68%
Mean + 1,96 SD = 95%
Mean + 2,57 SD = 99%
Luas kurva total = 1 = 100%
Digunakan untuk menentukan jenis uji hipotesis serta menghitung
nilai Confidence Interval (CI)

6.

Distinguish the difference between normal distribution/Gaussian distribution

and standard normal distribution
Kurva berbentuk lonceng simetris (symetrical bell shape)
Mean = median = modus
Disusun dari variabel random tertentu
Mean + 1 SD = 68%
Mean + 1,96 SD = 95%
Mean + 2,57 SD = 99%
Luas kurva total = 1 = 100%
Digunakan untuk menentukan jenis uji hipotesis serta
menghitung nilai Confidence Interval (CI)

7. Describe about z score and its use?

Z score is a deviation of a value from mean is SD (standard deviation)
scale. How many SD apart from the mean.

8.

Untukmemperkirakanprobabilitas

Z=

X X
SD

If from a study we found the mean of Hb level from 200 samples of children is
11.8 mg/dl, and the standard deviation is 0.5mg/dl. It is assumed that data was
normally distributed.
Based on the used of normal distribution and the area under normal curve (z
score)
a. What is the probability of children in the population has Hb level > 12mg/dl

1211,8 0,2
=
=0,4
0,5
0,5
p=

z=

b. What is the probability of children in the population has Hb level <11 mg/dl
9.

Describe about sampling distribution, standar error of the mean and confidence
interval (CI) of the mean
Sampling Distribution : distribusi suatu parameter (mean, proporsi atau
beda proporsi) yang terjadi karena perbedaan pengambilan sampel
o Distribution of mean, mean difference, proportion, and proportion
differences of samples
o Characteristics of the sampling distribution of the mean:
If the number of sample is big enough, mean or mean
differences of samples will follow normal distribution (Central
Limit Theorem)
If the data follows normal distribution, the mean or mean
differences will also follow normal distribution.
The variation of mean or mean differences will be measured by
standard error of the mean.

Standard Error of the Mean : rata-rata penyimpangan mean terhadap grand

mean
o

SEM =

SD
n

Confidence Interval : estimasi rentangan nilai suatu parameter yang

mungkin didapat dari populasi
o Has lower and upper limit
o Interval estimate of population parameter such as mean, proportion,
etc.

10. Based on case 2 above:

- Calculate the standard error of the mean

SEM =

SD
n

SEM =

0,5
0,5
=
= 0,035
200 14,14

Calculate the 95% CI of the mean

o 95%CI = 11,8 1,96 0,035=11,8 0,0686
o 11,7314 - 11,8686

Interpret the 95% CI of the mean

o Jadi, nilai yang bisadiperolehpadapopulasiberkisarantara 11,7314
11,8686.
o Upper limit : 11,8686
o Lower limit : 11,7314

Case 2
Hypothesis Testing and Linear Correlation
Re-open skill lab data (appendix).
Recall that the type of data presentation is based on scale measurement and also
the type of hypothesis testing will be based on the scale of measurement and
purpose of the analysis. Basically, there are two types of hypothesis testing; namely:
testing the difference and testing the association. The basic concept of hypothesis
testing should be understood before performing the test. In hypothesis testing we are
testing the possibility of the difference or the association is likely to be true in the
population. There two type of hypothesis, null hypothesis (Ho) and alternative
hypothesis (Ha)
For testing the association between two continuous variables we can use correlation
test with correlation coefficient from Pearson (r). In the correlation test, we can
determine the strength and direction of the association.
Correlation may be a linear and non-linear, symmetric and non-symmetric, straight
and reverse correlation, and relational and causal. In this case, we will only discuss
linear correlation.

Learning Task 2
1. Discuss the indication of linear correlation analysis.
- Berbandinglurus
- X naik, Y naik
- Grafikberbentuksepertigarislurus yang miring kekananatas
2. From the variables in skill lab data, discuss example of possible correlation
analysis
- Semakinbesartinggibadan, semakinbesar pula beratbadan
- Semakinbesarumuranak, semakinbesartinggibadan
3. Discuss the two ways that we can use for determining correlation between
two variables?
- Scattered diagram
- Correlation coefficient
4. Discuss the use of coefficient correlation?
- Coefficient correlation is symbolized as r
- Value of this coefficient is between -1 and +1
- This coefficient tells the strength and direction of correlation between
2 variables
- Interpretation
o r = +1
: positive perfect Correlation
o r=-1
: negative perfect Correlation
o r=0
: no Correlation
o 0< r <0.6 : mild Correlation
o r 0. 6 : strong Correlation
5. Discuss the meaning of negative and positive correlation, provide example!

7.

Negative correlation
o R=-1
o Variabel A dan B berbandingterbalik
o A naik, B turun
o Kadar insulin dankadarguladarah

Positive correlation
o R=+1
o Variabel A dan B berbandinglurus
o A naik, B naik
o Konsumsi Fe dankadarHb

Discuss the strength of the association, when it is considered low, moderate,

high and perfect, describe with example!
- r=0
: no Correlation
Puasadalamcuacapanasdengankondisifungsionalginjal
- 0< r <0.6 : mild Correlation
- r 0. 6 : strong Correlation
- r=-1 or r=+1 : perfect
- Insulin danguladarah