TO:

Interested Parties
FR:
Jarrett Lewis, Nathan Klein
DT:
August 1, 2015
RE:
Primary Debates What to Watch For

Thursday marks the beginning of the quadrennial Presidential primary debate season, something
that has become a form of sport since the proliferation of primary debates in 2008. An open
Presidential election entails that both sides will hold multiple debates over the course of the next
six months, and at times it may feel like there is a debate seemingly every other night.

With so many candidates on both sides, it will feel tough at times to gauge who is winning and
who is losing a debate. Below are several indicators worth watching, to gauge the successes and
failures of the participants:

1) Social Media Activity. An unexpected predictor of success that emerged during the 2012
Republican debates was social media activity, and in particular activity on Twitter. Twitter
was novel during the 2008 election cycle, and campaigns had yet to realize its benefits, but
by 2012, campaign staff, members of the media and voters knew the outcome and how the
aftermath of each debate would carry out largely based on social media reaction throughout
the debate.

2) Polling Beyond the Ballot. The ballot (horserace) numbers are no doubt important and
can reveal a candidates bump or fall following a debate performance. There are other
survey numbers that are perhaps equally as important though. Candidate image and
information flow of a candidate are both very important numbers to pay attention to.

Can Hillary Clinton use the debates to increase the trust Americans have in her (her current
trust numbers are dangerously low)? Will Jeb Bush use the debates to separate himself
from his father and brother (one of the most, if not the most, difficult obstacles he will face)?
These attribute numbers are important predictors of candidate success. With this many
candidates in the field, ballot numbers have limited meaning, particularly six months before
the first primary votes are cast. Other polling numbers will be a useful indicator of how the
primaries will play out.

3) General Election Positioning. In 2008, then Senator Obama did an excellent job navigating
the extended Democratic primary, while making sure to position himself well among swing
voters. However, the 2012 Republican primary badly damaged Governor Romney for his
general election matchup against the President. At the moment there are 22 candidates on
either side of the aisle running for President. But, barring a surprise, there are 46
candidates with a realistic shot at winning the White House. These candidates know they
must delicately walk the line to win the primary, but must not alienate independent and
swing voters.

The Republican party has been facing this issue with the rise of the Tea Party for the past 5
years. The most likely candidates to emerge from the Republican primary will try to avoid
being pulled too far to the right (e.g., Governor Bush has said little about his opponents and
instead focused his attacks on Hilary Clinton). The party has stepped in to try and limit the
damage from the primary season, reducing the number of debates in half from 2012.

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On the Democratic side of the aisle, Bernie Sanders has caught significant momentum since
entering the race. While he is still far behind Hillary Clinton in the polls, he nevertheless
poses a problem to the former Secretary of State. Clinton is the overwhelming favorite to
win the nomination but she must carefully balance her ideological positioning. The
Democratic party is facing its own ideological battle right now Clinton must ensure she
motivates voters on the left, yet not put off centrist Democrats and moderate voters.

4) Trump. Donald Trump has no doubt taken center stage of the Republican field the over the
past month. While many believe this is fleeting, Trump is certainly a challenge the other
Republican candidates must handle, and one who has the resources to stay in the race as
long as he would like. Trump wants the other candidates to play into him the more he is
attacked on stage, the more he will have a chance to defend himself and thus take up more
air time. How the other candidates handle Trump will be important.

5) Slow and Steady Can Win the Race. Many recall the oops remark by then Governor Rick
Perry. And although his campaign was in dire straits by that point (he had dropped to 4th in
the polls going into that debate), many believe that to be the moment at which he officially
lost the primary. It was a moment that stuck in the minds of voters, making a comeback
before the Iowa Caucuses nearly impossible. But debates are often about the long game
few can recall any specific good or bad moments by Mitt Romney during the Republican
debates, but time and time again his performances were labeled as solid and steady one of
the ways in which he was able to separate himself and ultimately go on to win the
nomination was the consistency of his debate performances.

6) The Moment. It is no surprise that politicians try to speak in soundbites, but as the world
has shifted from print journalism to the online space, creating moments has become more
important. A fight, quibble, oneliner, or zinger that had little bite on the page can be a big
winner among the YouTube generation. And, remember that services like Vine limit clips at
sixseconds, so candidates will have to be quick on their feet to take advantage of these new
communication tools.

Presidential debates matter and they especially matter in a primary. They gave a relatively
unknown Senator from Illinois the chance to stand alongside Hillary Clinton. They prolonged Newt
Gingrichs campaign and ended any chance Mitt Romney had of ending the primary season in
January 2012, instead leading to a prolonged primary that wounded Romney for the general
election.

The next few months will reveal a lot about how the primary contests are likely to play out. They
are worth watching to see who will emerge as the party nominees to be the 45th President of the
United States.

Mr. Lewis serves as Executive Director of Consumer Research at The Health Management Academy. He
previously worked as a polling analyst on Governor Mitt Romneys Presidential campaign during the
2012 election cycle and at the Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies in the 2008 cycle.

Mr. Klein is founder and managing partner at Olive Tree Strategies, a political polling and consulting
firm. He was previously the Director of Polling and Analytics for the NRSC during the 2014 election
cycle and the polling manager for the Romney Presidential campaign during the 2012 election cycle.

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