Power System Reliability Analysis with RES

Power System Reliability Analysis
with RES
Dr. Naran M. Pindoriya

Assistant Professor, EE Department
Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar
25/05/11
Talk outline
Introduction to Reliability
Power system Reliability
25/05/11
MCS-SVM Model for Composite

Reliability Assessment
Power System Reliability Analysis with
Renewable Energy Sources
What is Reliability ?
Basic Steps in System Reliability Analysis
Objective of the analysis
Component /system modeling
Performance function
Reliability Evaluation
Introduction to Reliability
25/05/11
What is Reliability?
Ability of a system to perform its intended function
Within a specified period of time
Under stated condition
Relate to the absence of failures, that due to random

phenomenon (e.g., Random failures, Uncertainties)
Define numerically as average or mean value
Can be treated as a parametric quantity
Can be traded off with other parameters such as cost
How to model uncertainty
?
25/05/11
How to model Uncertainty ?

Probability of failure
Chance that a component will fail
Probabilistic value with no unit
May be difficult to interpret
Frequency of failure (failure rate)

In terms of number of failure within specified time
Easier to predict from history
Express in per hour, per day, per year
How to quantify reliability ?

25/05/11
Example : Transmission Lines

100 MW
100 MW
Load
100 MW
Load 100
MW
100 MW
System B
System A
Given that each transmission lines has the following

level of reliability
System
Failure
Probability
Cost (million Rs)
0.01
100
0.1
25
Which system is more reliable?

Which system is more cost-effective?
25/05/11
Cost-Benefit Analysis
High reliability achieved with high cost
Is it worthwhile to have high reliability?
Source: http://www.eppo.go.th/power/ERI-study-E/ERI-EOCS-1-E.html
25/05/11
System Reliability Analysis

Objective: Interest to know the time-to-failure
distribution of a component/system
Helps to predict the failure probability at any point in time
= failure rate
q
Basic Steps:
q
Component/ System Modeling
Down
= repair rate
Describe state of each components in the system
Ex: a generator has two states (either up or down)
In terms of probability distribution
25/05/11
Up
Ex: a generator fails with probability of failure =

0.01.
8
System Reliability Analysis Contd

q
Performance Function
Need to define intended function.
Ex: Minimization of load curtailment
Reliability Evaluation
25/05/11
Each component described by random variables

Gen. states
Output (MW)
Probability
100
0.85
50
0.14
0.01
System states constructed from possible combinations of

component states
Objective of Reliability Analysis

Levels of Reliability Analysis
Power System Reliability Indexes and Criterion
Deterministic
Probabilistic
Power system Reliability
25/05/11
10
Uncertainties in Power Systems

Generation
Generating units with failure and repair rates
Generating capacity associated with probability
Transmission line capacity

Transmission line with failure and repair rates
Transmission line capacity associated with probability
System load
Vary with time
Construct load distribution from history
25/05/11
11
Objective
Reliability is a measure of the ability of the power system to
deliver electricity to all points of utilization within accepted
standards and in the amount desired, for the period of time
intended, under the operating conditions intended.
RELIABILITY
Adequacy
Adequacy : relates to the existence of
sufficient facilities within the system
to satisfy the consumer load demand
at all times; taking into account
scheduled/ unscheduled outages
assessed using the power flow

(AC/DC) solutions
25/05/11
Analyzed either on deterministic

or probabilistic basis
SECURITY
Security : ability of the electric
systems to respond to sudden
disturbances arising within that
system, such as electric short circuits
assessed using dynamic calculation

12
Areas of Power System Reliability Analysis

Generating capacity reliability
Concern with generation adequacy
All generators and loads are
connected to a single bus
Distribution system
reliability
LEVEL
Composite system reliability
Local network
connected to end-users
Interest to find out the
reliability level at load
point
Concern with generation and

transmission capability adequacy
25/05/11
13
Composite Power System Reliability

Basic intention:- to determine some probabilistic
measure of the undesirable events in power systems
Unit and System Models
State
Selection
Operating Strategies
Load
Curtailment
No
Yes
Success
State
Failure State
Classification of
system states in the
whole state space
Evaluation
Success
States
Failed
States
Reliability
Indices
Calculation
State Space
25/05/11
14
Power Systems Reliability Indexes

Probabilistic indexes
Deterministic indexes
Do not take into

account the
uncertainties that
affect reliability
Simple calculation and
require less data
Percentage reserve
Reserve margin as the
largest unit online
25/05/11
Reflect uncertainties in the

system
Loss of load probability
(LOLP)
Probability that generation

will not meet demand in a
year
Loss of load frequency (LOLF)
How often does the system

fail in a year
Expected energy not supplied
(EENS)
15
Power Systems Reliability Criterion

Deterministic criteria
N-m contingency analysis
System with N components should be able to serve peak
load when loss m components
Sometimes called security analysis
Probabilistic criteria
Loss of load expectation, for example, 1 day in 10 years
25/05/11
16
Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS): Introduction

SVM and LSSVM classifier Tool
MCS-LSSVM Model for Reliability Assessment
Simulation results for different case studies
MCS-SVM Model for Composite Reliability

Assessment
25/05/11
17
Reliability Evaluation: Methods
Classical
Approaches
demands
strict
mathematical analysis
use some device to

circumvent the problem
of straightforward
enumeration such as
25/05/11
State space pruning,

Variance reduction
technique
Simulation
Select system states based on

their respective sampling
mechanism (e.g., sequential or
random sampling)
Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS)

AI based algorithm used in
State selection as an
alternative to MCS (for ex.
PSO, GA, etc)
Pattern classification
techniques for state
evaluation as an aid to
MCS
18
Simulation Methods: Remarks (1)

The most significant difference between MCS and AI
based search algorithm lies in their sampling
mechanism.
MCS Method: Some Remarks
system states are sampled based on their occurrence probability, and both success
and failure states sampled contribute to the estimation of reliability indices.
ability to model complex systems in more detail and accuracy than is possible in
analytical methods;
can not only calculate the expected value of reliability indices but also their
distributions
Even though the state is a repeated sample, is still count for index calculation
when MCS is used to deal with highly reliable systems, its efficiency may become
low since a large number of system states need to be sampled and evaluated. (e.g.
quite time-consuming)
25/05/11
19
Simulation Methods: Remarks (2)
AI based Search Method: Some Remarks
25/05/11
Unlike MCS, AI based search method is rather problem-dependent,

where system states with higher failure probabilities have higher
chances to be selected and evaluated.
the failure probability of system state is used to guide the search.
Also, unlike MCS, in AI based search method only the failure states
are useful in estimating reliability indices.
20
MCS for Composite Reliability Evaluation

MCS: the non-sequential and the sequential
MCS
the non-sequential approach samples the system states
randomly,
while in sequential approach the system states preserve the

Computational
steps for the of
non-sequential
chronological characteristics
the system
MCSSelect a state of the power system,

1.
2.
by random
sampling the states of all components and the load levels.
Characterize (or classify) the selected state, x, (success or failure)
through test function f(x) , by performing the adequacy analysis,
which usually involves optimal power flow (OPF) analysis.
3.
Update the estimate, E(f )
4.
If the stopping criterion is satisfied, stop; otherwise return to step 1.
25/05/11
21
IEEE-RTS-79 Test System

Unit 22
(1400 MW)
Unit 23
(1400 MW)
BUS 18
Unit 24~29
(650 MW)
BUS 17
BUS 21
BUS 22
BUS 23
Unit 21
(1155 MW)
BUS 16
BUS 19
Unit 30~31
(2155 MW)
Unit 32
(1350 MW)
BUS 20
BUS 14
Synch.
Cond.
BUS 15
Unit 12~14
(3197MW)
Unit 15~19
(512 MW)
Unit 20 (1155
MW)
BUS 13
(slack bus)
BUS 24
BUS 11
BUS 12
138 kV
BUS 9
BUS 10
cable
BUS 6
BUS 4
BUS 5
BUS 8
cable
BUS 1
Unit 1~2
(220 MW)
Unit 3~4
(276 MW)
25/05/11
BUS 2
Unit 5~6
(220 MW)
Unit 7~8
(276 MW)
BUS 7
Unit 9~11
(3100 MW)
230 kV (dominated by
generation, 2721 MW)
Ckts are, fully available at all
times
Load buses are considered to
the fully correlated with the
total system load
230 kV
BUS 3
24 buses (10 generation buses

and 17 load buses), 38 Ckts, 32
generating units, Total installed
capacity: 3405 MW and peak
load: 2850MW
Two well defined areas:
138 kV (dominated by load)
22
Load Profile of IEEE RTS-79

1
0.9
Load (pu)
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
8736
Hours
Case 1: Fixed peak load =

2850 MW
Case 2: Multiple load levels
Case 3: Time varying load
25/05/11
Load
Prob.
Load
Prob.
Load
Prob.
1681.5
0.08333
2109.0
0.04167
2679.0
0.04167
1710.0
0.08333
2365.5
0.04167
2707.5
0.04167
1795.5
0.08333
2451.0
0.04167
2736.0
0.12500
1909.5
0.04167
2593.5
0.04167
2821.5
0.04167
2080.5
0.04167
2650.5
0.04167
2850.0
0.08333
23
MCS-LSSVM: Flowchart
Testing patterns obtained
by random states
sampling (MCS
computation-step 1)
Input/output training
data set obtained by
MCS procedure
Extract the training

patterns through Kmeans clustering
LSSVM classifier modeling

and supervised training
(10-fold cross validation)
Once LSSVM is trained
Identify most
relevant input
variables
Power system state

space pre-classification
by the trained LSSVM
model instead of OPF
Classifier accuracy
assessment and
calculate reliability
indices by analyzing
only failure states
classified by LSSVM
# Naran M. Pindoriya, Panida Jirutitijaroen, Dipti Srinivasan, and Chanan Singh, Composite reliability
evaluation using MCS and least squares support vector classifier, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Feb.
2011 (Accepted and available for early access).
25/05/11
24
Introduction to SVM
SVM provides an approach to the two-category (operating or
failed) classification problem with clear connections to the
underlying statistical learning theory
Let, the problem of separating the set of training
vectors (N data points) belongs to two separate
classes:
D=
{ ( x , y ) ,..., ( x
1
with a hyperplane:
, y N ) , x n , y { 1,1}
H : y = w
xb = 0
w (weight vector) and b (bias) are the

parameters that control the function.
the
is
b /the
w perpendicular distance to the origin.
Linear
separation
25/05/11
Optimization problem:
1
Min wT w , s.t. yi ( w
x b ) 1
w ,b 2
LR augmented optimization function

25
Non-linear SVM: If the surface separating the two classes is not

linear, the data points can be transformed to another high
dimensional feature space where the problem is linearly separable
( ) the
Let, the transformation be
then
lagrangian function in the high dimensional
feature space is:
LD = i
i
1
i j yi y j 1( 4xi 2) 4( x3j )
2 ij
(
k xi , x j
Mapping the input space to the feature space,

where linear classification is possible
25/05/11
26
LSSVM
In contrast to the standard SVM,
the LSSVM uses a least squares cost function and involves
equality constraints instead of inequalities in the problem
formulation.
As a result, the solution is obtained by solving a set of
linear equations instead of QP and hence, LSSVM can
reduce the computational complexity.
Kernel functions
25/05/11
27
Input Data Projection

Input data projection (Case 2)
1800
Input data projection (Case 3)

2500
Success state
Success state
1500
1150
800
450
Failure state
Generation Reserve (MW)
Generation Reserve (MW)
Failure state
25/05/11
200
400
600
800
1000
Unavailable Generation Capacity (MW)
1200
2000
1500
1000
500
300
600
900
1200
Unavailable Generation Capacity (MW)
1500
28
Case 1 (Fixed peak load = 2850 MW)

Training patterns are generated
by
MCS
Algorithm
runs until coefficient of
0.5
250
0.4
200
No. of total samples = 873
No. of success states = 783
No. of failure states = 90
LOLP = 0.1031, EPNS = 187.19 MW
Execution time for MCS= 17.78

Sec
SVM training data patterns
Inputs : [ unavlbe_gen, res_gen ]

Training samples = 270 [failure
state (1): success states(2)]
Obtained using K-means
clustering algo.
LOLP/Coefficient of variation
LOLP
Coeff. of variation
EPNS
0.3
150
0.2
100
0.1
50
100
200
300 400
500 600
Number of iterations
700
800
0
900
EPNS(MW)
variation () converge to 10%
Case 1 (Fixed peak load)

Case-1 : Simulation
results
LSSVM Classifier Performance (Case 1)
MCS-LSSVM
MCS
(benchmark)
Linear kernel
RBF kernel
# success states
24269
23967
24269
# failure states
2285
2587
2285
Sensitivity (%)
NA
98.76
100
Specificity (%)
NA
100
100
g-mean (%)
NA
99.38
100
Composite Reliability Indices Comparison (Case 1)

LOLP
Esti.
index
Error
(%)
Esti.
index
Error
(%)
Total
Comp.
time
(sec)
0.08609
--
174.05
--
603
Linear
kernel
0.08609
0.000
174.05
0.000
70
RBF
kernel
0.08609
0.000
174.05
0.000
64
MCS
(benchmark)
# Naran M. Pindoriya, Panida Jirutitijaroen,
Dipti Srinivasan, and Chanan Singh, Composite
reliability evaluation using MCS and least
squares support vector classifier, IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, Feb. 2011
(Accepted and available for early access).
MCSLSSVM
EPNS (MW)
Case 2 (Multiple load levels)

0.1
200
100
Coefficient of variation
0.05
EPNS(MW)
LOLP
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
500
1000
1500 2000 2500

No. of samples
3000
3500
0
4000
500
1000
1500 2000 2500

No. of samples
3000
3500
Training patterns are generated by MCS
Algorithm runs until coefficient of variation () converge to

0.15
Execution time for MCS= 180.76 Sec
4000

INPUT DATA PROJECTION
1800
1600
1600
Generation reserve (MW)

1800
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
1400
1200
1000
800
600
200
400
600
800
1000 1200
Unavailable generation capacity (MW)
1400
No. of success states =

3603
LOLP = 0.0265
EPNS = 144.28 MW
400
200
400
600
800
1000 1200
1400
SVM training data patterns

clustering algo.

LSSVM Classifier Performance (Case 2)
MCS
(benchmark)
MCS-LSSVM
Linear
kernel
RBF
kernel
# success states
84079
83119
83487
# failure states
2430
3391
3023
Sensitivity (%)
NA
98.86
99.29
Specificity (%)
NA
100
99.60
g-mean (%)
NA
99.43
99.44
Composite Reliability Indices Comparison (Case 2)

LOLP
25/05/11
Comp.
time
(sec)
Esti.
index
Error
(%)
Esti.
index
Error
(%)
0.02811
--
156.76
--
2639
Linear
kernel
0.02811
0.00
156.76
0.00
100
RBF
kernel
0.02800
-0.4032
155.18
-1.010
99
MCS
(benchmark)
MCSLSSVM
EPNS (MW)
33
Case 3 (Time varying load)

-3
x 10
120
1
0.9
80
1.5
60
40
0.5
20
5000
10000
No. of samples
15000
Coefficient of variation ( )
100
EPNS(MW)
LOLP
2.5
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
2000 4000
6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000

No. of samples
Training patterns are generated by MCS
Algorithm runs until coefficient of variation () converge to

0.2
Execution time for MCS= 350.78 Sec

TRAINING SAMPLES

2500
2400
success state
2200
failure state
2000
2000
1500
1000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
500
500
1000
1500
No. of success states = 16493
LOLP = 0.0015
EPNS = 98.54 MW
400
500
1000
1500
SVM training data

patterns
clustering algo.

INPUT DATA PROJECTION (TESTING SET)
2500
MCS (Benchmark)
Testing samples through MCS until it

reaches ( = 0.05) = 2,97,139
Execution time for MCS= 20753.21 Sec.
Success states = 2,96,739 and Failure
states = 400
LOLP = 0.001346, EPNS = 120.516 MW
2000
1500
1000
500
MCS-LSSVM
200
400
600
800 1000 1200 1400
LOLP
EPNS (MW)
Kernel
type
# Success
states
# Failure
stats
Sensitivity
(%)
Specificity
(%)
g-mean
Esti.
index
Error
(%)
Esti.
index
Error
(%)
LSSVM+
OPF
time (sec)
[A]
Lin. kernel
RBF kernel
Poly. kernel
295890
295702
296175
1249
1437
964
99.71
99.65
99.81
99.75
100
100
99.73
99.83
99.91
0.001343
0.001346
0.001346
-0.25
0.00
0.00
120.768
120.516
120.516
0.21
0.00
0.00
26.35
33.25
20.74
1600
1800
Total
(MCS for
tra. patt.
=350.8+A)
377.15
384.05
371.54

LSSVM Classifier
Performance
# Naran M. Pindoriya, Panida Jirutitijaroen,
Dipti Srinivasan, and Chanan Singh, Composite
reliability evaluation using MCS and least
squares support vector classifier, IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems, Feb. 2011
(Accepted and available for early access).
LOLP
Linear
kernel
RBF kernel
Polynomial
kernel
# success states
305362
303581
304520
304790
# failure states
400
1242
1468
972
Sensitivity (%)
NA
99.72
99.65
99.81
Specificity (%)
NA
99.60
99.88
100
g-mean (%)
NA
99.66
99.76
99.90
Esti.
index
Error
(%)
Esti.
index
Error
(%)
Com.
time (sec)
[A]
0.00131
--
126.41
--
21080
NA
Lin. kernel
0.00130
-0.400
126.86
0.355
26.02
376.75
RBF kernel
0.00131
-0.125
126.53
0.1026
33.33
383.79
Poly. kernel
0.00131
0.000
126.41
0.000
20.74
371.97
MCS
(benchmark)
MCSLSSVM
EPNS (MW)
MCS-LSSVM
MCS
(benchmark)
Total [MCS
for tra. patt.
(=350.8) +A]
Composite Reliability
Indices Comparison
Concluding Remarks
LSSVM classifier takes the equality constraints in place of
the inequality counterparts with SVM, and the solution
follows from solving a set of linear equations, instead of
quadratic optimization problem for SVM.
Because the LSSVM is fast and effective nonlinear
classifier in compare to ANN classifiers, it has used to preclassify the entire system operating states into success or
failure, so then only failure states are fully evaluated for
adequacy analysis to calculate composite reliability
indices.
MCS LSSVM allows to avoid the adequacy analysis of
success states (which are usually much greater than the
number of failure states in power systems) and hence it
provides significant reductions in the computational cost
required while evaluating composite reliability.
25/05/11
38
Case Studies
ERCOT System with wind energy

Augmented IEEE RTS with PV generation
Power System Reliability Analysis with

Renewable energy sources
25/05/11
39
Objective
Reliability analysis of power system including RES,
with an emphasis of bus loads and intermittent
behavior of RES such as wind and solar power
q
ERCOT System with wind energy
Zhen Shu and Panida Jirutitijaroen, Latin Hypercube Sampling Techniques for Power Systems Reliability
Analysis With Renewable Energy Sources, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Jan. 2011 (Accepted and
available for early access).
25/05/11
40
Augmented IEEE RTS with PV

generation
Weekly load and PV curves in IEEE RTS

case
PV power generated from MIT Weather Station in
2009, Available: http://pvbase.mit.edu/cgibin/index.py.
Zhen Shu and Panida Jirutitijaroen, Latin Hypercube Sampling Techniques for Power Systems Reliability
Analysis With Renewable Energy Sources, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Jan. 2011 (Accepted and
available for early access).
25/05/11
41
Thank you for your attention !!!
Questions ???
25/05/11
42

Power System Reliability Analysis with RES

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Power System Reliability Analysis

Dr. Naran M. Pindoriya

Power system Reliability

MCS-SVM Model for Composite

Component /system modeling

Relate to the absence of failures, that due to random

How to model Uncertainty ?

Frequency of failure (failure rate)

How to quantify reliability ?

Example : Transmission Lines

Given that each transmission lines has the following

Cost (million Rs)

Which system is more reliable?

System Reliability Analysis

Component/ System Modeling

Describe state of each components in the system

Ex: a generator has two states (either up or down)

In terms of probability distribution

Ex: a generator fails with probability of failure =

System Reliability Analysis Contd

Need to define intended function.

Ex: Minimization of load curtailment

Each component described by random variables

System states constructed from possible combinations of

Objective of Reliability Analysis

Power system Reliability

Uncertainties in Power Systems

Transmission line capacity

assessed using the power flow

Analyzed either on deterministic

assessed using dynamic calculation

Areas of Power System Reliability Analysis

Composite system reliability

Concern with generation and

Composite Power System Reliability

Power Systems Reliability Indexes

Do not take into

Reflect uncertainties in the

Probability that generation

How often does the system

Power Systems Reliability Criterion

Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS): Introduction

Simulation results for different case studies

MCS-SVM Model for Composite Reliability

Reliability Evaluation: Methods

use some device to

State space pruning,

Select system states based on

Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS)

Simulation Methods: Remarks (1)

Simulation Methods: Remarks (2)

AI based Search Method: Some Remarks

Unlike MCS, AI based search method is rather problem-dependent,

MCS for Composite Reliability Evaluation

while in sequential approach the system states preserve the

MCSSelect a state of the power system,

Update the estimate, E(f )

If the stopping criterion is satisfied, stop; otherwise return to step 1.

IEEE-RTS-79 Test System

24 buses (10 generation buses

138 kV (dominated by load)

Load Profile of IEEE RTS-79

Case 1: Fixed peak load =