Oil SURVEY

August 14, 2015

These survey results represent the opinions of 22 of the worlds top energy analysts and
strategists.
They responded to CNBCs invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on August 11 through August 13, 2015. Participants were not required to answer
every question.
This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.

1. Where do you see WTI's price trending in the short term

(September-October) and where do you think it will end
the year?
Sept-Oct

End of Year

70%
62%
60%

50%

40%
32%
29%

30%

32%

23%
20%
14%
10%

10%

0%

0% 0%
Below $30

0%
Between
$30-$40

Between
$40-$50

CNBC Oil Survey August 14, 2015

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Between
$50-$60

More than
$60

0% 0%
Don't
know/unsure

Oil SURVEY

August 14, 2015

2. Where do you see Brents price trending in the short
term (September-October) and where do you think it will
end the year?
Sept-Oct

End of Year

80%
71%
70%

60%

50%

40%

36%
32%

32%

30%
24%
20%

10%
5%
0%

0%

Below $40

0%
Between
$40-$50

Between
$50-$60

CNBC Oil Survey August 14, 2015

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Between
$60-$70

0% 0%

0% 0%

More than
Don't
$70
know/unsure

Oil SURVEY

August 14, 2015

3. What do you think is the most important factor impacting
oil right now?
70%

60%

57%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

19%

10%

10%
5%

0%

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0%

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August 14, 2015

4. How do you think US oil supply will trend through the
end of the year?
50%

45%

41%
40%

35%

32%
30%

27%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
Fall

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Flat line

Rise

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August 14, 2015

5. Do you think Saudi Arabia will cut production in a
meaningful way this year?
100%

96%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

5%
0%
Yes

CNBC Oil Survey August 14, 2015

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No

Don't know/unsure

Oil SURVEY

August 14, 2015

6. When you think Iranian oil will come to market?
30%

27%
25%

23%

23%

20%

15%

14%

14%

10%

5%

0%

0%
4Q 2015

2Q 2016

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2017 or later

Oil SURVEY

August 14, 2015

7. For the rest of 2015, global demand for crude oil will:

50%

45%

46%
41%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

14%

15%

10%

5%

0%

0%
Rise

Fall

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Stay the same

Don't know/unsure

Oil SURVEY

August 14, 2015

8. If demand falls, which region would have the most
impact?
60%

55%
50%

40%

30%

23%
20%

14%
10%

5%

5%

0%
China

US

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Eurozone

All of the
above

Don't
know/unsure

Oil SURVEY

August 14, 2015

9. What do you estimate is the average breakeven price for
US shale producers?
0%

5%

10%

15%

Less than $35

10%

$35-$45

10%

20%

25%

30%

24%

$55-$65

5%

$65-$75

Don't know/unsure

0%

10%

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40%

45%

43%

$45-$55

More than $75

35%

50%

Oil SURVEY

August 14, 2015

Comments:
Kyle Cooper, IAF Advisors: This bear market will eventually end
as all do. The end does not appear likely in the near term.
Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letter: As long as the term
structure for Brent and WTI remain in contango that is evidence that
supplies are more than ample and that crude is bidding for storage.
This is rarely anything other than bearish for crude oil prices.
Anthony Grisanti, GRZ Energy: Once summer demand ends--oil
will start to build supply---unless production drops--I see oil trading
in the 30s until the spring of 2016
Alan Harry, Spartan Commodity Fund: I feel the key to where
crude will go this year will be largely influenced by the increased
supply of Iran coming online and the increased economic condition
throughout the world.
Jim Iuorio, TJM Institutional Services: One of the primary
drivers of the oil and commodities plunge has been the notion that
the U.S. is tightening while the rest of the world is easing, resulting
in dollar strength. If anything comes into conflict with that thesis
commodities could easily reverse course.
John Kilduff, Again Capital: The refinery maintenance season and
the growing global glut of diesel fuel will enable the next phase lower
for crude oil prices with at least $30 being hit as the low point for
this cycle.
Jeff Kilburg, KKM Financial: As shorts have control of the futures
markets, anticipate continued volatility as price discovery develops
into the upper $30s. That being said, I believe the $30s will be
CNBC Oil Survey August 14, 2015
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Oil SURVEY

August 14, 2015

short-lived and the price of WTI should float back to the $50 level
after all of the carnage has transpired.
Tom Kloza, OPIS: WTI almost certainly will overreact and slide into
the high $30s. But it shouldn't match the 2008 slide that came with
great financial unwinding, and it shouldn't return to the much lower
prices a generation ago. The market is many times bigger with much
more financial underpinning than in the pre-2003 period.
Scott Nations, Nations Shares: Crude supply continues to outpace
demand by about 2 million barrels per day, which is bad, but the fact
that crude oil storage is nearing capacity is even worse for crude
prices near term.
Dan Pickering, Tudor Pickering: What started the year as a
supply problem has now become a supply AND demand problem,
with fears of a China slowdown being the biggest recent influence.
While China supply will almost certainly not decline, the unknown is
a powerful influencer of near term oil price. Lower for longer has
become consensus thinking, but as supply declines in the U.S.
become more evident later this year, oil prices should find healthy
support well above the current low $40s level.
Elliott Warren, GFI Group: It's going to $33.

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