SUNDAY PRINT EXCLUSIVE

The main cause: Arctic oscillation

Air pressure and winds around the Arctic that switch between two phases help determine weather in January
through March. The current pattern has brought colder than normal weather for much of the country.

Warm phase Stro winds

Strong
In the warm phase, higher cir
circling the
pressure at mid latitudes arctic
drives ocean storms farther ccold air
north. Changes in the FFrigid
i id arctic
ti air
i
circulation pattern bring
wetter weather to Alaska,
Scotland and Scandinavia,
as well as drier conditions Cold
ld Atlantic
Atl
A tlantic
ti
to the western United storrms keep
storms eep
States and the Dry
Mediterranean.
Europe wetet
Frigid winter air does Warm with mild
not extend as far into temperature
tempe atures
temperatures
Atlantic
the middle of North Ocean
America as it would
during the cold
phase of the
oscillation.
By Sam Upshaw Jr., The Courier-Journal
Annabelle Ott, 5, left, and Lizzy Tiano, 10, roll a huge mound of snow as they build the trunk of
snowman at the Westport Village.

Why all Cold phase

ned this winter)
(what happened
Relatively high pressure over the polar region
and low pressure at mid latitudes. Weather Win
Winds around

the weird patterns in the cold phase are, in aarctic are

general, "opposite" to those w
wea
weak and the
of the warm phase. ccold air can
co
Frigid arctic air mo south
move

weather?
Mild weather Cold Cold blasts
dominates east now
bring snow
of the Rockies and ice to
Europee

he main culprit behind this winter’s snow and

cold is a natural change in an arctic wind
pattern.
Some years it blows strong and tight Frigid arctic
around the top of the Earth, holding in much air with Atlantic
snow Ocean
of the cold air. This year, the pattern has been
looser, and more of that cold air has slipped free and
ridden a jet stream directly into the Louisville area and
deeper south.
Meanwhile, barreling in from the west below us was the
Unusual temperatures
How temperatures differed from normal over the last three months
jet stream from El Niño and the moisture it picked up in
the Pacific. Warmer
When the upper edge of that warm, moist air from the than Warmer
west met the frigid arctic air, snow fell from the sky. While normal than
El Niño took much of its moisture south of Louisville, the normal
air was cold enough to make more snow than normal.
Colder
than
Louisville weather: By the numbers normal
More snow ... ... less liquid precipitation
In inches 20.1 In inches compared with normal
12.7 14.6
2.85 2.85
7.1 0.84 0.43 1.86 0.5
0.3
-3° -2° -1° 0° +1° +2° +3° +4°
Dec. Jan. Feb. Total Normal December 2009 January February
2009 2010

Annual snow history Other factors: El Niño and the jet stream
In inches Niños cycle of warming up the equatorial
El Niño’s eq waters in the eastern Pacific occurs every three to seven
19.8 19.8 years and affects weather around tthe globe. In the United States, a moderate El Niño makes winter
wetteer and
wetter andd cooler
cooller aacross
cros
cro s the south
southern third of the country and warmer and drier across the North.
15.5
10.6 10.7 11.1
5.7 5 4.5 CANADA
3.6 4.8 Warmer
and drier Colder
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* and Warmer and drier
Pacific
PPaci
ificc wetter Atlantic
Calendar year *Through Feb. 23 Ocean Colder and Ocean
wetter
Winter temperatures Colder and
Average temperature, and departure from normal drier Colder and
Pacific jet
stream wetter
All day average High Low
36.6° 43.8° MEXICO
O
30.1° 29.9° 36.6° 36.2° 29.9° 24.9° 28.5°
-1.0° -2.9° -7.7° -1.6° -4.4° -9.4° -0.5° -1.4° -6.0° The global picture
Dec. Jan. Feb. Dec. Jan. Feb. Dec. Jan. Feb. Though climate-change skeptics have pounced on the cold weather, scientists point out that a few
weeks of snow in one area of the globe have nothing to do with the long-term climate changes
2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010
around the world. And while it might have been frigid locally, it's been unusually warm in many other
parts of the world.

Drier
Dry here, than normal
wet there Wetter
25% than normal
Percent 50% Wetter
of normal 75% than normal
for Drier
January 125% than normal Temperature
2010 Wetter difference
150% than normal from
normal for
175% January 2010

-5° -4° -3° -2° -1° 0° +1° +2° +3° +4° +5°
Sources: National Snow and Ice Data Center.; NOAA; University of Washington; Celsius
National Weather Service; the University of Louisville By Steve Reed, The Courier-Journal