Professional Documents
Culture Documents
SE ASON
H E ATS UP
TREND TRADING
TRADER MAGAZINE
MADE SIMPLE
US
INTEREST
RATE HIKE
OPTIONS
ST R AT E GY
COT &
VO LUM E
PROFILE
STRATEGY
YEN
MIDYE AR
REVIEW
yuan
growing
global
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CONTENTs
FX
48
REVOLUTIONIZE THE
WAY YOU TRADE
28
07 EDITORS NOTE
YUAN SPECIAL REPORT
6 0 Chinas Growth Path to
Internationalization: fundamental
analysis and Yuan trading recommendations
42 A Supranational Reserve Currency:
The solution to reach global stability and
avoid conflicts of interest
58 Interview with Yi Gang, State
Administration of Foreign Exchange
Director
GLOBAL MARKET WATCH
12 Whats in store for investors in the
second half of 2015? A look at the major
issues which will create volatility on the
market
MONETARY POLICIES
18 Central Bank Season Heats Up. How
to interpret Central Banks decisions to
find major directions and trends for weeks,
months, and even years
26
US INTEREST RATE HIKE: A
MATTER OF WHEN, NOT IF
What the next three months hold for
the US dollar
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
34 Mexico wants to attract more investors:
Implications for the USDMXN
CURRENCY WATCH:
24 Japanese Yen: Breather continues
BOOK REVIEW
OPTIONS STRATEGY
64 FX Options, an elephant in the room:
How to generate returns from anomalies
and biases in the FX option market
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
70 Trend Trading Made Simple: A
trading method which uses the basics of
technical analysis combined with price
projections
TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
36 How to eliminate emotions from trading
by gauging the emotions surrounding the
market and applying some consistent rules
73 Seven trading affirmations to transform
your trading success. Discusses the
positive, battle-tested trading affirmations
based on the habits of successful traders
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CONTRIBUTORS
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CONTRIBUTORS
ZURICH PRIME
Rob Colville has trained thousands of
private investors around the globe. He
founded The Lazy Trader to teach his
simple and honest approach to trading
and investing. Rob is member of the
Society of Technical Analysts (STA)
and regularly writes for FX Street, Forex
Peace Army and FX Trader Magazine.
Rob also works as a Business Mentor
for The Princes Trust in London where
he coaches budding entrepreneurs from
disadvantaged backgrounds on how they
can build and develop their own business.
www.thelazytrader.com
Sam Barry is the CEO of Littlefish
FX, who are seeking to democratise the
foreign exchange market by providing
educational
materials,
analytical
tools, trading systems and alternative
investments based on order flow
concepts and strategies (traditionally the
preserve of large financial institutions).
Learn more about this, and sign up for
their Forex course including marketleading indicators, at LittlefishFX.com.
Samuel Tay is the founder of Grentone
Capital Management Ltd. He has more
than a decade of experience trading
and managing global financial market
investments. He worked a proprietary
trader, investment banker, investment
manager, market maker, dealer, and
speaker for several global institutions.
Samuel made appearances in Chinese
financial media, and spoke for several
global financial institutions. He adopts
a top-down approach investment
strategy, with the use of fundamental
analysis to discover intrinsic values. He
also uses Elliott Wave Theory, Intermarket Analysis, Sentiment Indicators,
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FX
Central Banks quantitative easing Reserves approach to raising interest voted in on an anti-austerity ticket, so
program and more recently renewed rates from their all-time historical this is just one of the high hurdles needed to
optimism of a deal for Greece, although low. Both have been hotly debated be overcome. Ultimately though a deal
their impressive gains have dwindled throughout the year intensifying as we would be a short-term fix that only buys
somewhat in the second quarter, Indian reach breaking point.
Greece a few more months time before
stocks are largely negative and the only
we will see the problem resurface.
real standout is the Shanghai Composite Lets look at the Greece issue first as by Without some sort of debt restructuring
seeing over a 40% gain so far. In the the time this article is published the a bailout resolution will mean prolonging
FX world the
of what is widely
dollar has added
being
accepted
to the impressive
as inevitable and
returns it made
in the eyes of
in the latter part
many investors
of 2014, with
when Greece does
the dollar index
finally leave the
up over 5% year
euro, such a breakto date and the
up further down
majority of those
the line should be
gains coming at
more manageable.
the expense of the
A default and
yen and euro. Its
resultant Grexit
not just the dollar
will cause much
that has benefitted
short-term pain,
from
euro
but is potentially
weakness
with
better in the long
sterling up 8%
run for Greece and
against the single
its creditors as now
currency and the
contagion risk is
Two major issues cast a long shadow over
pound has held its
less than it was
the
rest
of
this
year:
the
ongoing
Greece
own against the
three years ago.
mighty US dollar,
The only problem
saga, and the Federal Reserves approach
up just over 1%
with the latter
to raising interest rates
year to date.
scenario, which
is the reason why
Whilst the first
there has been
half shows a very mixed picture when it country will probably have been thrown so much time and resource vested in
comes to returns across asset classes, it yet another lifeline by the EU and other negotiations, is that it means an end to
suggests bifurcation amongst investors creditors in the form of 7.2 billion to a single currency project that was never
and indicates a wide ranging concern shore up the countrys finances through supposed to fail and if its alright for
about what the second half has in store. the summer. Investors have been one member to see an end to austerity
There are two major issues casting a long showing relief with equity markets whilst having their outstanding debts
shadow over the rest of this year with bouncing, but even if a deal is agreed, written off, then other members such
the first being the ongoing Greece saga it then has to be ratified by the Greek as Spain, Portugal, Ireland and even
and the second being the US Federal parliament who have of course been Italy will be asking why isnt it the same
FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 13
FX
As if this wasnt
enough
of
a
headache
for
investors theres
the other issue
of having to
deal with the
com mencement
Ultimately, the
of central bank
world is going
m o n e t a r y
to find interest
tightening.
rate hikes hard to
Whilst a few
stomach as weve
central
banks
been used to near
around the globe
zero rates in many
continue to ease
major developed
monetary policy,
economies
for
for example earlier
Investors,
businesses
and
consumers
almost
seven
in the year the
years.
At
least
European Central
have been used to ultra-low interest rates
we can be safe
Bank introduced
for
years
and
are
nervous
about
monetary
to assume that
its long awaited
tightening
when rate hikes
quantitative easing
do come, they
program and more
are likely to be
recently the Bank
of Korea, Reserve Bank of Australia interest rates has ramifications beyond gradual rather than precipitous,
and Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the shores of the US, in particular with the tightening cycle for the
their interest rates, the Federal Reserve emerging markets as it makes their Fed expected to peak around 3.00%
and Bank of England are getting debt, much of it dollar denominated, towards the end of 2017. But this may
twitchy trigger fingers to commence more expensive. We saw the potential not be enough to put investors minds
hiking.
of an emerging market rout back in at rest during the remainder of 2015.
2013 when the Fed commenced the
Whilst we are still some way off those tapering of its quantitative easing
Angus Campbell
first rate rises with question marks and even though most emerging
Senior Analyst
over whether even the Federal Reserve market currencies have depreciated
FxPro
Steve Ward
Traders Coach
answers your questions
FX
Write to
FXTraderMagazine
Ask your question
to our professional
traders coach by
sending an email to
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FX
Steve Ward
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per formance or psycholog y
question answe red by Steve
please send it to askthecoach@
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FX MONETARY POLICIES
by Chris Pulver
MONETARY POLICIES
Figure 1 - US Federal Reserve QE programs relative to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
FX
FX MONETARY POLICIES
Since January 2015, over 20 central
banks have participated in changes
to monetary policy with the majority
being rate cuts - see for yourself at
http://www.cbrates.com/decisions.
htm. Summer 2015 will play host to
additional central bank decisions with
the US Federal Reserve and RBNZ
as some of the
more noteworthy.
The US Fed is
contemplating a
raise in interest
rates for the first
time in six years
while the RBNZ
is contemplating
a cut in interest
rates after a period
of
tightening
and
increasing
throughout 2014.
MONETARY POLICIES
Figure 3 - EURUSD price action behavior in the wake of ECB Monetary Policy
FX
FX MONETARY POLICIES
market picture. If traders understand
that a certain central bank is constantly
mentioning and reiterating the desire
for a weaker currency, the central bank
will most likely get it in some fashion.
Chris Pulver
Expert analyst
Market Traders Institute
The author, Caspar Marney, manages assets for some of the worlds leading investment banks and
financial institutions. He predicted the huge Yen move of 1998 on live television, a move larger than the
Pounds exit from the ERM on Black Wednesday. Caspar started his trading career as a spot currency
trader and technical analyst with HSBC in London and moved to SBC Warburg, later UBS, as Global Head
of Technical Analysis for FX and precious metals, where he became one of the banks most successful
proprietary traders. He is a regular commentator on financial news channels, a visiting University
lecturer, a frequent guest speaker at trading events as well as regular contributor to trading publications.
FX
CURRENCY WATCH
by Keith Raphael
Breather Continues
CURRENCY WATCH
FX
Keith Raphael
President
Crosscurrents Investment Advisory
FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 25
FX
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
by Jarratt Davis
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
FX
Jarratt Davis
FX trader, Funds Manager and Mentor
Author of
How to Trade a Currency Fund
FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 27
FX TRADING METHOD
by Sam Barr y
TRADING METHOD
FX
FX TRADING METHOD
THE COT (COMMITMENT OF
TRADERS) REPORT
Now lets explore what happens
when we actually consider plotting
some information about the
underlying orders alongside our
longer timeframes.
TRADING METHOD
FX
MARKET PROFILE
Many of you may use these charts or
a version of these charts already. But
lets take a market profile of what is
happening to create our price chart.
Fundamentally all this is doing is
showing you the scale of the orders
filled to create each price point we hit.
Before we look at the charts, lets just
consider what that means.
FX TRADING METHOD
This includes two simplified looks at how
orders are working on lower timeframes
and the COT chart as previously
described at the bottom. Instead of
presenting a lot of information we are
however simply colouring areas to give
us a view of whether the pressure is to the
upside or to the downside in the market.
If we then use our Volume Profile
on intraday basis we can then build
strategies for getting more efficient entry
and exit prices.
FINDING THE INFO:
ONLY HALF THE BATTLE
Chart 7
Jarratt Davis has been ranked among the best performing FX traders between 2008 and 2012 by Barclay Currency
Traders Index. In this book, Jattatt shares his journey from Forex novice to a fully fledged Forex Fund trader.
After establishing his career in 2006 and mastering the art of FX trading by teaching himself techniques
online, Jarratt became one of the few self-taught traders to reach an institutional level. He traded on
behalf of companies and funds in Hong Kong and London, pumping trades worth up to $10 Million a
time on a daily basis, and today he is regularly ranked within the top 10 performing currency traders.
Today, Jarratt and his team train investors, traders and industry professionals. Jarratt Davis is also
regularly featured on Bloomberg TV, FX Trader magazine, Currency Trader magazine and FXStreet.com.
FX
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
by Yann Quelenn
infrastructure are
antiquated
(adding to production issues)
and create more midstream issues
which makes the oil transportation
challenging.
NORTH AMERICAN
TRADE AGREEMENT
FREE
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Agreement in order to boost
investment and consequently
growth.
Investments
have
marginally supported oil and gas
production. Yet, it appeared that
those investments have not been
entirely sufficient to reverse the
decrease of oil
production over
the last ten
years.
While demand
and price for oil
remained high,
exports
have
decreased and
for this reason.
Ironically,
Mexico had to
import
even
more
natural
gas from the
United States
in order to
support its oil
and electricity
production.
FX
As a result of
those facts, we
remain bearish
on the M X N
as oil foreign
investments
are still of a
concern
and
low oil price is
set to continue
as
OPEC
decided to keep
production
Ironically, Mexico had to import more
l e v e l
unchanged and
natural gas from the United States in
The
market
therefore
to
order to support its oil and electricity
reality is now
oversupply the
production
pushing Mexico
market.
We
to liberalize its
target the pair
energ y markets,
U S D M X N
in
particular
infrastructure hand by utilizing monetary policy to reach 16.00 within the next
investments are highly requested. tools. For the time being, its policy three months against a backdrop
New reforms will take place rate remains unchanged at 3.00%, of US recover y.
allowing
foreign
private keeping policy accommodating.
Yann Quelenn
companies to drill Mexican oil
Market Analyst
and above all bring investments The stable inf lation below 3%
Swissquote
Bank
to the sector.
leaves room for further easing
FX
TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
by Efthivoulos Grigoriou
In this article, the author unveils his personal trading approach, which he built during his professional trading
career, and which allows to remove the emotional part of trading by gauging the emotions surrounding the market
or a specific instrument, and by applying some consistent rules.
TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
FX
FX
TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
When analysing
the market, the
Fear and greed, or
first thing to do
trying to beat the
from a technical
market, can lead
perspective
is
to cutting winning
to identify the
trades short and
market
trend
letting losing trades
and
determine
run out of control.
the support and
Remember,
the
resistance
levels.
true battle is not
How do we do
between you and
that? By drawing
the market, but
trend lines. How
in learning how
exactly these lines
to control your
are drawn will be
own
emotional
discussed in another
impulses.
article, since it
The world of trading has very little room
is a complicated
for
emotions.
There
is
only
room
for
Dont forget, its
subject. Ive had
very important to
the opportunity to
calculated, well-planned decisions
understand that all
meet some traders
instruments price
who draw trend
action is completely dependent on the When I think back on my early trading lines just with one glance at the market.
emotional reactions of the various market career, I remember the times when This is not the approved method and, if
participants. Without emotions, prices I continuously changed my trading you have this habit, youd better get rid of
would sit flat, since people are the main technique in order to achieve the best it. Why? Because you must have some strict
catalysts for market moves.
results. But no matter what technical rules and these rules will make your trade
indicator or trading system I used, I easier and free from emotions. Generally,
Price Is King!
always yielded the same result: losses. It rules demolish emotions and emotions
did not matter what I did, I had to fix demolish our trading accounts. Therefore,
I have read a lot of books and attended the real problem, and that was in my less emotions mean more opportunities
a lot of seminars, all of which ended by mind. Therefore, I had to control my for better results.
TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
This brings us to my theory, which I
discovered through my own trading
experience. The theory is that by gauging
the emotions surrounding the market or
a specific instrument, and by having some
consistent rules, you can control and even
eliminate your emotions when trading.
Trend lines that
serve to identify the
market trend and
determine support
and resistance levels
are the primary
tool I use to gauge
the
emotions
surrounding an
instrument or the
market overall.
FX
FX
TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
timeframe rather than a daily one.
Psychological levels occur when prices
end in multiple 0s. Traders tend to
be drawn to these psychological price
levels for several reasons. One is that
these prices have been important in the
past and traders know they are likely to
be important again. If a level worked
in the past, as a support or resistance,
the trader may assume that it will
provide solid support or resistance
again in the near future, like 1.2000
in EUR/USD, 1.7000 in GBP/USD
and 175.00 in GBP/JPY.
TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
FX
Conclusion
Efthivoulos Grigoriou
Head of Global Research and Analysis
JFD Brokers
FX
MACROECONOMICS
by Justin Lin
MACROECONOMICS
FX
FX
MACROECONOMICS
MACROECONOMICS
FX
to
capital-goods-exporting
countries, such as Japan and
Germany, also running large trade
surpluses. Because of the boom
in demand in both developing
cou nt r ie s
and
some
high-income
countries, the
demand
for
commodities
increased,
causing
a
commodity
price
boom
after 2000. A ll
the countries,
except
for
the
US,
accumulated
r e s e r v e s
because
of
trade surpluses
and
capital
Global imbalances and the global crisis
inf lows, which
they
used
were triggered by the current international
to
purchase
monetary system that uses the dollar as a
assets in the
US to earn a
global reserve, combined with some policy
return for their
mistakes in the US
reser ves.
At the same
time, the US
government,
because of the
Afghanistan
and Iraq wars,
also
ran
a
deficit. By that
time,
China
produced many
of the goods
exported
to
the US market,
resulting
in
China running
a large trade
surplus
with
the US because of the high levels
of consumption by the latter
countr y. This excess of liquidity
and low interest rates also
encouraged speculative outf low.
So in 2000, total capital outf low
from the US to developing
countries was $200 billion,
The hypothesis
stated at the start of this article
only characterises the reserve f lows
from the acquisitive countries back
to the US. In fact, those reserves
were first created in the US. So
how can we prevent a similar
crisis again? From my analysis, the
situation only occurs because the
FX
MACROECONOMICS
Could people
accept it? That
depends
on
many factors.
But if we opt for
If
we
want
multiple reserve
to prevent a
currencies,
similar situation
and
if
all
recurring,
we
the
multiple
need to address
reserve currency
the conflict of The SDR is a basket of national currencies, countries
have
interests associated so it will not address the root cause of certain
kinds
with
using
a
of
structural
the
crisis
that
is,
the
conflict
between
national currency
p r o b l e m s
as a global reserve
domestically, the
national interest and global interest
currency.
Many
system is likely to
parties believe the
remain unstable,
International Monetary Funds P-gold would have the advantage which is a lose-lose situation for
special drawing rights (SDR) can of gold, but as it would be fiat reserve currency and non-reserve
be a reserve or can be a way to money there could also be an currency countries.
solve the issue. But the SDR is a increase in the supply of this
Justin Lin
basket of national currencies, so it reserve according to certain fixed
Former Chief Economist at the
will not address the root cause of rules, such as the k-percent or
World Bank
the crisis - that is, the conf lict Taylor rules. To me, the needs are
Leading adviser to the Chinese
between national interest and growth in the global economy and
government
global interest. For this reason, I international trade. It would also
Steve Ward is currently one of the most respected trading performance and psychology coaches,
who works with traders, trading desks and fund managers at investment banks, funds, energy
companies and proprietary trading groups across the globe. He provides coaching and training
programs for top tier trading institutions, as well as retail traders. He worked as consultant performance
coach to BBC2s Million Dollar Traders and co-managed a team of 40 professional proprietary traders in London. He is
also an approved regular trainer at the London Stock Exchange and has written for many leading trading publications.
FX
MACROECONOMICS
The world needs to be
prepared for a system
where the dollar,
euro and yuan will
all be consequential
international
and
reserve currencies
MACROECONOMICS
Capital account
l ibera l isation
will accelerate
this
year,
making
the
renminbi more
freely usable
FX
Progress
of
capital
account
liberalisation
and further renminbi
i nter n at iona l i z at ion
will have a deep impact
on the global financial
markets
by Li Cui
MACROECONOMICS
The shortcomings and vulnerabilities
of the current global financial system,
the rising outreach of Chinese trade
and investment, and the progress of
Chinas financial and capital account
reforms,
have
all shaped the
renminbis steady
rise on the global
stage.
FX
FX
MACROECONOMICS
MACROECONOMICS
In 2009, PBOC governor Zhou
Xiaochuan proposed that the
currency basket of the SDR should be
expanded to include emerging market
currencies such as the renminbi, to
make its currency composition more
representative of the reality of global
economic power.
This year, the IMF
will undertake its
five-yearly
SDR
review,
where
the
possibility
of including the
renminbi will be
assessed.
FX
FX
MACROECONOMICS
MACROECONOMICS
FX
FX
MACROECONOMICS
MACROECONOMICS
FX
full currency convertibility. There There are, however, active debates on domestic financial restructuring
are a few compelling arguments in how renminbi internationalisation before liberalising capital flows.
favour of capital account reforms and the associated liberalisation of The main question facing Chinese
over time. First, capital account capital flows should be positioned officials is whether the speed of
liberalisation is likely to help in the financial reform agenda the external opening-up is too fast
improve allocative efficiency and is (it should be emphasised that the compared with domestic reforms.
in line with the
The
standard
g o v e r n m e n t s
dilemma is the
view
that
impossible
the
market
trinity, where
should play a
an open capital
decisive role in
account, coupled
the
economy.
with the limited
A l t h o u g h
flexibility of the
China does not
currency, makes
rely on global
it difficult to
funding
for
control domestic
growth (unlike
monetary policy
other emerging
i nd ep end enc e .
To
some
m a r k e t
observers,
countries, where
d o m e s t i c
the
funding
r e f o r m s
gap was the
such as bank
primary reason
restructuring
for opening up
and state-owned
internationally),
In a recent speech, PBOC governor Zhou
enterprise
high domestic
indicated that capital account liberalisation
reforms should
s a v i n g s
precede capital
are
largely
will accelerate this year, making the
a c c o u n t
concentrated in
renminbi more freely usable
opening-up, so
domestic assets
that the system
(deposits
and
is
sufficiently
real estate) with
limited diversification. Second, debate is largely on how, rather than resilient to deal with volatile
international
capital
flows
operationally, as trade size grows, it whether, to liberalise).
that have caused crises in other
is difficult to maintain watertight
controls on capital f lows. And Chinas
approach
has
been emerging markets (Yu Yongding).
third, from the governmental unorthodox, as the Chinese Others, however, believe that it is
perspective, the liberalisation of government
pushed
capital feasible that reforms be conducted
capital f lows could also be used as account reforms and domestic iteratively without the pitfalls
a catalyst for institutional reforms, financial reforms iteratively and suffered by other emerging market
mirroring the success of trade simultaneously, in contrast to the peers because: the Chinese economy
liberalisation two decades ago.
textbook advice of completing is large, and is not just a price
FX
MACROECONOMICS
MACROECONOMICS
FX
FX
INTERVIEW
Yi Gang,
State Administration of Foreign
Exchange director, discusses five
changes in Chinas foreign exchange
management as well as the long-term
value of the renminbi
INTERVIEW
What progress has been made in
deepening reform, streamlining and
decentralising administration, and
promoting free trade investment?
What are the next steps?
We have stressed five changes in
our foreign exchange management
philosophy that are vital for the
development of our long-term
administrative framework. The move
from an approval-based approach
to a monitoring-based approach,
the switch from pre-regulation to
management in the aftermath of
an issue, and also the change from
behaviour-based management to
subject-based supervision - whether it
is a financial institution or a company,
we will supervise it and it will be
responsible for its conduct. Fourthly,
we switched from an assumption
of guilty until proven innocent
to a philosophy of innocent until
proven guilty and finally from using
a positive list of approved activities/
INTERVIEW
What do
you make of
the recent
depreciation of
the renminbi?
A
countrys
foreign exchange
rate is one of the
main instruments
measuring
the
overall soundness
of its economy
and its finances.
In 2014, the euro
and yen fell by
more than 10%
against the US
dollar, while the
renminbi declined
by 2%. This means the real effective
exchange rate and nominal effective
exchange rate of the renminbi has
increased compared with the euro, the
yen and a basket of global currencies.
If the US dollar is the strongest
currency, it is fair to say that the
renminbi is the second-strongest
one. In many developing countries,
FX
FX
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
A slowing economy
with a soaring stock
market witnessing
the Sell in May and
Go Away adage
Trading
positions
depend on whether
the renminbi will be
included in the SDR
currency basket
by Samuel Tay
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
FX
A Soaring
Market
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Figure 3.
FX
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Figure 4.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
FX
Samuel Tay
Founder
Grentone Capital Management
FX
OPTIONS STRATEGY
by Jessica James and Jonathan Fullwood
Premium vs Payout
The phrase the elephant in the room is
usually used to refer to a fact which is
glaringly obvious once pointed out, but
to which people have been oblivious for
some time. There is an elephant in the
FX options room.
FX options are a huge market.
The latest Bank of International
Settlements survey in 2013 found that
there was over 300 billion USD worth
of flow every trading day. Spreads are
tiny and liquidity is large. So how can
1
Note that these are puts and calls on the exchange rate, ie, on the base currency
OPTIONS STRATEGY
FX
This is the research which underlies the book we have recently completed, published by Wiley, called FX Option Performance.
FX TRADER MAGAZINE July - September 65
FX
OPTIONS STRATEGY
of the cost of the forwards, once more
including premium and bid-offer costs.
Additionally, in case the cheaper option
hedges provided poor protective qualities,
we examined the hedge cash flows in the
worst ever depreciation periods for the
EM currencies. In the vast majority of
cases, the option hedges provided similar
protection, to about 90% of the level
provided by the forward contracts. While
remaining vastly cheaper, they still deliver
value during high risk times.
forward cost. Twenty out of the twentyfive currency pairs tested have the option
cost as less than the forward cost, and the
five exceptions have smaller data sets. In
the past at least, options have delivered
far cheaper hedges. We repeated the
backtest using 25-delta out-of-the money
long call option positions. We found
that the supposedly more exotic OTM
options are actually cheaper hedges
again than both the ATMF options
and the long forward contracts. In this
case they are on average about one third
OPTIONS STRATEGY
would be keen to know whether this is an
area which could yield diversified alpha
in a world of ultra-low yields.
Above in Figure 4 we show the
returns to a systematic straddle selling
strategy in USDJPY. The puts and
the calls offset each other elegantly
and the result is a surprisingly smooth
and profitable series. However, this
includes only premium and payout
the marked-to-market variation would
have added considerable volatility. But
nevertheless, it is clear that even this
very simple strategy holds potential, and
there are likely to be more to discover.
Where did the elephant come
from?
Can we discover where these very
significant anomalies originate?
Lets take a look at the payoff to a
Spot rate at
inception
Long put
payoff
Long
call payoff
Premium cost
of ATMF option
Most likely range
for spot at expiry
FX
Carry cost
of forward
FX
BOOK REVIEW
FX Option Performance
An Analysis of the Value Delivered by FX
Options since the start of the Market
BOOK REVIEW
FX
FX
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
by Razvan Mihai
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The father of modern technical
analysis, Charles H. Dow, said in his
studies that the market is moving
in trends and that there are two
main directions: up and down. The
sideways moves were lines which
were part of a rising or descending
trend.
FX
Chart 1
Chart 2
Chart 3
FX
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
parameters based on the traded
instrument, time frame and risk
appetite.
Let us get back to the exit points.
After the confirmation of the setup
and entering the trade a good Stop
Loss can be set under the last higher
low. A break below this one would
increase the probability of a reversal.
Chart 4
Chart 5
Razvan Mihai
TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
FX
by Rob Colville
FX
TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
Affirmation 1:
Affirmation 3:
Affirmation 4:
Im a profitable trader
TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
traded using that strategy will yield
a more representative overview of its
effectiveness.
In order for your trading results
catalogued in your trade journal to be
as scientific as possible, its imperative
to keep the risk
on any trade as a
constant variable,
no matter how
good the set-up
may look at first
glance.
Keeping the risk
low for every trade
placed is a must.
There is nothing
more chilling than
watching a losing
trade bleed your
account to death,
especially
when
you know that the
loss would have
only been minimal
had you risked 1%
of your accounts
value...rather than
10%!
FX
All
too
frequently, the
rookie trader
falls into the
Trading is an art that cannot be
deadly trap of
s e l f- s a b o t a g e
mastered overnight. A skill that can be
by
watching
accomplished after years of dedication.
the
progress
of their trades
Just like a university degree.
currently
in
play. This often
Remember,
becomes
an
financial markets
are a very different kind of animal Trading is an art that cannot simply emotionally exhausting experience
where anything can happen at anytime... be mastered overnight but, rather, a as every flicker between both
sometimes for no real rhyme or reason. life skill that can be accomplished after positive and negative balances on
years of dedication and hard graft...just their broker profit and loss account
is often the cause of a veritable
Affirmation 6:
like a university degree.
emotional rollercoaster!
My ambitions in trading are for long Affirmation 7:
term gain as opposed to a quick buck
Rob Colville
I will not become emotionally attached
Founder
Managing expectations will be key in to the outcome of any trade set-up
TheLazyTrader.com
FX TECHNICAL REPORT
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
MAJOR US DOLLAR RATES - FEATURED MARKET USD/JPY
USD/JPY has moved steadily higher since
completing a 2 year Head & Shoulders base at
the end of 2012 when resistance around 84.1685.53 was cleared. Losses from the 2007 lower
top at 124.14 have since been fully retraced, the
recent push above 124.14 having also penetrated
the 25 year downtrend connecting the 1990 &
1998 peaks at 160.26 & 147.61. Furthermore,
the 12, 60 & 120 month (1, 5 & 10 year) moving
averages are all rising. As yet, there are no
Current level
Major trend
Major targets
EUR/USD
1.1230
Down
0.9700 / 0.8232
1.2875
GBP/USD
1.5500
1.4234 / 1.3500
1.6366
USD/JPY
123.60
Down
Up
USD/CHF
0.9310
USD/CAD
1.2355
Up
AUD/USD
.7730
Down
130.55 / 137.50
Flat
105.31
.8701 / 1.0238
1.3063 / 1.3464
1.1074
.7208 / .7017
.9404
TECHNICAL REPORT FX
MAJOR CROSS-RATES FEATURED MARKET EUR/SEK
EU R / S E K p e a ke d a t 1 1 . 7 8 4 2 i n Ma r c h 2 0 0 9 ,
a n e w a l l- ti m e tr a d e d h i g h . A p r o l o n g e d
decline
followed,
e v ent ua l l y
reaching
8 . 1 7 7 3 i n Au g u s t 2 0 1 2 , b e f o r e tr a c i n g o ut
a mu l ti -m o nth d o u b l e b o t t o m a t 8 . 1 7 7 3 /
8 . 2 5 6 1 , c o m p l e t e d i n Jun e 2 0 1 3 b y th e b r e a k
a b o v e 8 . 7 9 3 7 . G a i n s a c c e l er a t e d t o a p e a k
o f 9 . 7 1 5 1 i n D e c em b e r 2 0 1 4 , a h e a d o f th e
l a t e s t s e tb a c k . A p o s s i b l e y e a r - l o n g h e a d
& s h o u l d e r s t o p i s b e i n g tr a c e d o ut a b o v e
a 9 . 0 5 6 8 - 9 . 0 6 7 9 n e c k- l i n e , w i th th e r i s k
s e en f o r a r e v er s a l t o wa r d s s up p o r t - t urn e dr e s i s ta n c e a t 8 . 7 0 1 3 - 8 . 7 9 3 7 o v er c o m i n g
m o nth s . We s e e s c o p e f o r a h i g h er l o w t o
th e n d e v e l o p , s e t ti n g up a f r e s h r e c o v er y
p ha s e t o wa r d s s up p o r t - t urn e d-r e s i s ta n c e
a r o un d 9 . 9 7 3 3 - 1 0 . 0 3 7 4 a n d p o s s i b l y f o rm er
s up p o r t a t 1 0 . 3 8 4 4 , a h e a d o f a s u b 1 0 . 5 3 6 8
l o w e r t o p e v ent ua l l y b e i n g l e f t f o r a r e t urn
t o un d e r l y i n g w e a kn e s s .
Current level
Major trend
Major targets
EUR/GBP
.7235
Down
.6702 / .6537
.8062
GBP/JPY
191.65
Up
199.89 / 215.85
168.08
EUR/JPY
138.60
Flat
149.73 / 159.60
126.11
EUR/CHF
1.0525
Down
1.0071 / 0.8599
1.2033
EUR/NOK
8.7340
Up
9.3002 / 9.8687
8.3146
EUR/SEK
9.2015
Up
9.7151 / 9.9808
8.7013
FX TECHNICAL REPORT
FX EMERGING MARKETS FEATURED RATE EUR/CZK
EUR/CZK was in a 9 year downtrend from the March
1999 peak at 38.705, this reached as low as 22.925 in
July 2008, ahead of a strong recovery which retraced
between 38.2% & 50% of the entire decline to reach
29.671 in February 2009, before heading lower. The
majority of the 22.925-29.671 recovery was retraced,
eventually leaving a higher low at 23.934 in January
2011, ahead of a renewed recovery phase. A base
pattern was completed in late 2013 by the break above
Current level
Major trend
Major targets
EUR/CZK
27.270
Up
29.671 / 30.815
25.485
EUR/HUF
313.00
Up
349.93 / 374.81
295.73
EUR/PLN
4.1575
Up
4.2236 / 4.2525
4.1074
EUR/RON
4.4900
Flat
4.2913 / 4.5697
USD/ILS
3.8390
Flat
3.4014 / 4/0978
USD/RUB
54.70
Up
78.39 / 100.00
36.782
USD/TRL
2.7375
Up
3.1335 / 3.5000
2.1905
13.098 / 13.856
USD/ZAR
12.415
Up
EUR/RUR
61.50
Flat
EUR/ZAR
13.950
Up
10.828
52.40 / 70.20
15.489 / 16.788
12.653
TECHNICAL REPORT FX
SELECTED ASIAN FX RATES FEATURED MARKET NZD/USD
NZD/USD completed a 3 year top pattern in January
when the 2013, 2012 and late 2011 lows at .7685, .7461
& .7373 were lost. A retracement of close to 50% of
the 2009-2011 .4901-.8840 advance has so far occurred,
with the 10 year moving average having been lost and a
dead-cross of the 1 & 5 year moving averages also now
evident. With MACD back into negative territory for
the first time in 5 years, we see the risk of a continued
retreat over coming months, with the 2010 / 2007 lows
at .6565-.6649 the next key target area and possibly as
far as .5831-.5930 (76.4% retrace of .4901-.8840 / 2006
low) further out, where potentially a key long-term
Current level
Major trend
Major targets
.8541
1.4244 / 1.4732
1.2830
NZD/USD
.6985
Down
USD/SGD
1.3460
Up
USD/MYR
3.7515
Up
3.8283 / 4.0000
3.5333
USD/THB
33.700
Up
34.459 / 36.280
31.750
AUD/CAD
.9555
Flat
AUD/NZD
1.1085
Down
.9781 / .9000
.9398 / 1.0065
1.1302
EUR/AUD
1.4540
Down
1.3189 / 1.2221
1.5331
EUR/NZD
1.6125
Down
1.2667 / 1.0594
1.6437
FX
Type
Description
Conference
Metropolitan Club,
NYC, USA
Conference
Lagos, Nigeria
Expo
FX Week USA,
14 July 2015
Midtown Hotel,
NYC, USA
Conference
Conference
Expo
Conference
London, UK
Conference
FX Week Asia,
10 September 2015
Singapore
Conference
Shanghai Mart,
Shanghai, China
Training
course
Expo
Conference
Conference
Training
course
Conference
INTERNATIONAL DATA
FX
FX SPOT MONITOR
Country
Flag
USD Spot
Last vs USD
% Ch 3M
% Ch 12M
12mth High
12mth Low
Eurozone
EUR=
1.1169
1.8%
-17.9%
1.3691
1.0493
UK
GBP=
1.5729
5.7%
-7.5%
1.7163
1.4629
Japan
JPY=
123.94
3.7%
21.4%
125.61
101.15
Switzerland
CHF=
0.9341
-2.7%
4.4%
1.02
0.86
Australia
AUD=
0.7732
-1.4%
-17.6%
0.9496
0.7589
Canada
CAD=
1.2324
-1.5%
14.6%
1.2788
1.0631
New Zealand
NZD=
0.6847
-10.0%
-21.3%
0.882
0.6847
Sweden
SEK=
8.259
-2.7%
23.1%
8.8211
6.6822
Norway
NOK=
7.8233
-0.2%
27.9%
8.31
6.111
Iceland
ISK=
132.26
-2.0%
16.3%
140.18
112.43
Israel
ILS=
3.7558
-4.7%
9.2%
4.0452
3.4007
South Africa
ZAR=
12.167
2.7%
14.3%
12.5755
10.5035
Egypt
EGP=
7.625
-0.1%
6.6%
7.63
7.15
Saudi Arabia
SAR=
3.7498
0.0%
0.0%
3.7595
3.7465
Czech Rep.
CZK=
24.334
-2.4%
20.8%
25.985
20.037
Poland
PLN=
3.724
0.0%
21.7%
3.948
3.0212
Hungary
HUF=
277.07
1.7%
23.4%
290.95
224.48
Russia
RUB=
53.78
-6.2%
56.1%
69.0825
33.7115
Turkey
TRY=
2.6779
3.6%
25.2%
2.7509
2.0859
China
CNY=
6.2066
-0.1%
-0.3%
6.2741
6.1107
Hong Kong
HKD=
7.752
0.0%
0.0%
7.7706
7.7495
Singapore
SGD=
1.3407
-2.2%
7.4%
1.3924
1.2362
Taiwan
TWD=
30.877
-1.1%
3.0%
31.995
29.839
India
INR=
63.5968
1.9%
5.7%
64.1557
59.6875
South Korea
KRW=
1105.73
0.4%
8.3%
1137.12
1008.8
Thailand
THB=
33.76
3.9%
4.0%
33.9
31.74
Malaysia
MYR=
3.7376
2.0%
16.0%
3.766
3.1465
Indonesia
IDR=
13250
2.1%
10.7%
13374
11495
Philippines
PHP=
45.084
0.8%
2.8%
45.27
43.2
Mexico
MXN=
15.3963
2.7%
18.6%
15.7035
12.9119
Brazil
BRL=
3.0748
-3.9%
38.0%
3.2915
2.1934
Chile
CLP=
632.9
2.0%
13.9%
640.79
548.14
Venezuela
VEB=
2150
0.0%
0.0%
2150
2150
Colombia
COP=
2550.53
0.4%
35.5%
2685.5
1837.5
FX
INTERNATIONAL DATA
CENTRAL BANKS
Country
Flag
Central Bank
Rate Name
Actual
Previous
USA
FED
Fed funds
-0.25
-0.25
Eurozone
ECB
Refi
2.00
2.00
UK
BOE
Bank Repo
0.75
0.75
Japan
BOJ
O/N Call
3.25
3.50
Switzerland
SNB
3 mth Libor
-0.25
-0.25
Australia
RBA
Cash
1.00
1.25
Canada
BOC
O/N Funding
5.75
5.25
New Zealand
RBNZ
Cash
0.1
0.10
Sweden
Riksbank
Repo
5.75
5.75
Norway
Norges Bank
Depo
9.75
9.75
Iceland
CBI
Policy
0.05
0.05
Israel
BOI
1.50
1.50
South Africa
Reserve Bank
Repurchase
1.5
1.65
Egypt
CBE
O/N Depo
8.25
8.25
Czech Rep.
CNB
2 Week Repo
7.5
7.50
Poland
NBP
28 Day Intervention
6.00
6.56
Hungary
MNB
2 Week Depo
1.50
1.50
Russia
CBR
Refinancing
7.25
7.50
Turkey
TCMB
O/N Borrowing
1.49
1.49
China
PBC
1 Year Lending
1.75
1.75
Taiwan
CBC
Discount
7.50
7.50
India
RBI
Repo
4.00
4.00
South Korea
BOK
O/N Call
3.00
3.00
Thailand
BOT
Repo
13.75
13.25
Indonesia
BI
BI
3.0
3.00
Philippines
BSP
Repo
4.0
4.00
Mexico
BDM
Target
3.00
3.00
Brazil
BCB
Selic
12.75
12.25
Chile
CBC
MPR
3.00
3.00
INTERNATIONAL DATA
FX
ECONOMIC DATA
GDP
CPI
Industrial Production
Unemployment
y-o-y
y-o-y
y-o-y
level
USA
2.39
0.0
-0.2
5.5
Eurozone
1.0
0.3
0.1
11.1
UK
2.4
0.1
0.4
5.5
Japan
0.6
0.3
1.2
3.3
Switzerland
1.1
-1.2
NA
3.3
Australia
2.3
1.3
NA
6.0
Canada
-0.6
0.9
NA
6.8
2.6
0.1
NA
69.6
Sweden
2.5
0.1
2.0
8.0
Norway
0.2
2.1
-2.9
2.7
South Africa
2.1
4.6
-2.00
26.4
Czech Rep.
4.2
0.7
4.3
6.4
Poland
3.6
-0.90
2.8
10.8
Hungary
3.6
0.5
6.30
7.6
Russia
-4.2
0.4
5.50
5.6
China
1.2
6.1
NA
India
7.3
NA
4.1
NA
Mexico
2.5
0.12
1.10
4.31
Brazil
-1.6
0.74
-7.60
6.40
FX POLL
3 Month
Poll Median
Poll Min
Poll Max
Poll Mean
Std Deviation
Spot@Poll Date
EurUsd
19
1.070
1.000
1.1600
1.0697
0.0410
1.1237
GbpUsd
19
1.510
1.400
1.6300
1.5089
0.0465
1.5364
AudUsd
19
0.750
0.680
0.8400
0.7586
0.0277
0.7687
UsdJpy
19
124.00
118.00
129.00
123.66
2.4800
123.90
UsdChf
19
0.970
0.910
1.0600
0.9798
0.0411
0.9333
UsdCad
19
1.250
1.170
1.3100
1.2503
0.0343
1.2502
EurJpy
19
131.99
123.42
149.64
132.16
5.2900
139.70
EurChf
19
1.0500
0.980
1.1000
1.0455
0.0254
1.0490
EurGbp
19
0.7092
0.6667
0.7616
0.7085
0.0175
0.7310
GbpJpy
19
186.92
168.94
207.69
186.58
6.7300
191.06
1 Year
Poll Median
Poll Min
Poll Max
Poll Mean
Std Deviation
Spot@Poll Date
EurUsd
19
1.0400
0.9200
1.1900
1.0477
0.0670
1.1237
GbpUsd
19
1.5100
1.2900
1.6700
1.507
0.0826
1.5364
AudUsd
19
0.7313
0.6500
0.8700
0.7391
0.0466
0.7687
UsdJpy
19
127.00
118.00
135.00
126.86
3.7100
123.90
UsdChf
19
1.0200
0.8800
1.2200
1.0244
0.0631
0.9333
UsdCad
19
1.2500
1.1000
1.39
1.2519
0.0576
1.2502
EurJpy
19
132.45
114.68
153.51
132.48
7.7500
139.70
EurChf
19
1.0800
0.9500
1.1500
1.0686
0.0485
1.0490
EurGbp
19
0.6929
0.6259
0.7984
0.6946
0.0335
0.7310
GbpJpy
19
190.39
163.83
216.48
191.14
11.5000
191.06
Levels Date:
23-Jun-15
FX
INTERNATIONAL DATA
MARKETS VIEW
Stock Indices
Last
% Ch 6M
% Ch 12M
Commodities
Gold
Last
% Ch 6M
% Ch 12M
1175.51
0%
-11%
MSCI World
1797.81
4%
3%
Silver
15.81
1%
-24%
18144.07
1%
7%
Brent DTD
60.21
3%
-47%
WTI
61
11%
-43%
S&P 500
2230.512
12%
32%
Nasdaq 100
4548.74
6%
20%
Eurostoxx 50
3629.58
15%
11%
Bonds
UK FTSE 100
6856.87
4%
1%
5Y Euro
Last
% Ch 6M
% Ch 12M
0.148
147%
-62%
Dax
11539.46
17%
16%
10Y Euro
0.867
44%
-35%
Cac 40
5058.31
19%
12%
10Y US Treasury
2.409
12%
-8%
FT MIB
23591.11
24%
9%
30Y US Treasury
3.201
17%
-7%
Swiss SMI
9131.02
1%
6%
10Y UK Gilt
2.111
15%
-23%
Nikkei 225
20868.03
18%
36%
0.169
-53%
-76%
Australia AORD
5672.744
5%
4%
HK Hang Seng
27404.97
17%
20%
Money Markets
Last
% Ch 6M
% Ch 12M
Shanghai Comp.
4690.0836
50%
132%
US 6M Depo
0.4438
25%
36%
Singapore StraitT.
3354.96
1%
3%
EUR 6M Depo
0.0480
-73%
-84%
India BSE30
27916.86
1%
12%
GBP 6M Depo
0.7284
7%
4%
Brazil Bovespa
53772.43
7%
-1%
CHF 6M Depo
-0.7230
4255%
-1133%
965.06
19%
-30%
JPY 6M Depo
0.1364
-6%
Russia RTSI
Levels Date: 23-Jun-15
-22%
Source: Thomson Reuters
Economic Calendar
FX
8:30am
July
Wed 1
Thu 2
Fri 3
Mon 6
Tue 7
Wed 8
Thu 9
Fri 10
Tue 14
Wed 15
GBP
1:00am
CNY
Manufacturing PMI
8:30am
GBP
1:30am
AUD
12:30pm
CAD
1:45am
CNY
12:30pm
USD
PPI m/m
2:00pm
CAD
2:00pm
CAD
8:30am
GBP
Manufacturing PMI
12:15pm
USD
Wed 15
2:00pm
USD
2:00pm
CAD
Overnight Rate
Tentative
NZD
Tentative
NZD
12:30pm
USD
3:15pm
CAD
12:30pm
USD
Unemployment Claims
11:45am
EUR
12:30pm
USD
Unemployment Rate
1:30am
AUD
1:30am
AUD
Trade Balance
8:30am
GBP
Services PMI
2:00pm
CAD
Ivey PMI
12:30pm
Thu 16
Fri 17
12:30pm
EUR
12:30pm
USD
Unemployment Claims
2:00pm
USD
12:30pm
CAD
USD
Building Permits
2:00pm
USD
12:30pm
USD
CPI m/m
10:00pm
NZD
12:30pm
USD
1:30am
AUD
2:00pm
USD
4:30am
AUD
Cash Rate
1:45am
CNY
4:30am
AUD
7:00am
EUR
8:30am
GBP
Construction PMI
7:30am
EUR
8:30am
GBP
12:30pm
CAD
12:30pm
CAD
Trade Balance
1:30am
AUD
12:30pm
USD
Trade Balance
8:00am
EUR
12:30pm
CAD
1:30am
AUD
CPI q/q
12:30pm
GBP
6:00pm
USD
1:30am
AUD
Employment Change
1:30am
AUD
Unemployment Rate
1:30am
CNY
CPI y/y
Tentative
CNY
Trade Balance
11:00am
GBP
Mon 20
Tue 21
Wed 22
Thu 23
8:30am
GBP
9:00pm
NZD
9:00pm
NZD
1:00am
NZD
Tentative
JPY
Tentative
JPY
8:30am
GBP
Tentative
GBP
12:30pm
CAD
12:30pm
USD
Unemployment Claims
12:30pm
USD
Unemployment Claims
12:30pm
CAD
Employment Change
12:30pm
CAD
Unemployment Rate
8:30am
GBP
CPI y/y
9:00am
EUR
12:30pm
USD
12:30pm
USD
10:45pm
NZD
CPI q/q
2:00am
CNY
GDP q/y
2:00am
CNY
Mon 27
Tue 28
Wed 29
Thu 30
12:30pm
USD
10:45pm
NZD
Trade Balance
8:30am
GBP
2:00pm
USD
CB Consumer Confidence
6:00pm
USD
FOMC Statement
6:00pm
USD
1:30am
AUD
12:30pm
USD
12:30pm
USD
Unemployment Claims
FX
Fri 31
Economic Calendar
1:30am
AUD
12:30pm
CAD
PPI q/q
GDP m/m
August
Sat 1
Mon 3
Tue 4
Wed 5
Thu 6
Fri 7
Sun 9
Tue 11
Wed 12
1:00am
CNY
9:30am
Wed 12
Manufacturing PMI
1:45am
CNY
8:30am
GBP
Manufacturing PMI
Thu 13
GBP
9:30am
GBP
10:45pm
NZD
11:50pm
JPY
12:30pm
USD
12:30pm
USD
12:30pm
USD
Unemployment Claims
6:00am
EUR
12:30pm
CAD
12:30pm
USD
PPI m/m
2:00pm
USD
1:30am
AUD
1:30am
AUD
Trade Balance
4:30am
AUD
Cash Rate
4:30am
AUD
2:00pm
USD
2:00pm
CAD
Ivey PMI
1:30am
AUD
Tentative
NZD
10:45pm
NZD
10:45pm
NZD
Unemployment Rate
8:30am
GBP
12:15pm
Fri 14
8:30am
GBP
CPI y/y
12:30pm
USD
Building Permits
Tentative
NZD
Services PMI
3:00am
NZD
USD
8:30am
GBP
12:30pm
CAD
Trade Balance
12:30pm
USD
CPI m/m
12:30pm
USD
Trade Balance
USD
2:00pm
USD
6:00pm
USD
1:30am
AUD
Employment Change
1:45am
CNY
1:30am
AUD
Unemployment Rate
Tentative
JPY
8:30am
GBP
Tentative
JPY
11:00am
GBP
7:00am
EUR
Tentative
GBP
7:30am
EUR
12:30pm
USD
Unemployment Claims
8:30am
GBP
1:30am
AUD
12:30pm
CAD
Tentative
CNY
Trade Balance
12:30pm
USD
Unemployment Claims
8:30am
GBP
Construction PMI
2:00pm
USD
12:30pm
CAD
12:30pm
CAD
Employment Change
12:30pm
CAD
Unemployment Rate
12:30pm
USD
12:30pm
USD
Unemployment Rate
1:30am
CNY
CPI y/y
1:30am
AUD
5:30am
CNY
9:00am
EUR
8:30am
GBP
8:30am
GBP
Tue 18
Wed 19
Thu 20
12:30pm
CAD
12:30pm
CAD
Mon 24
8:00am
EUR
Tue 25
2:00pm
USD
CB Consumer Confidence
12:30pm
USD
10:45pm
NZD
Trade Balance
1:30am
AUD
8:30am
GBP
12:30pm
USD
12:30pm
USD
Unemployment Claims
1:00am
NZD
Fri 21
Wed 26
Thu 27
Mon 31
Economic Calendar
September
1:00am
Tue 1
Thu 3
Fri 4
Mon 7
Tue 8
Wed 9
Fri 11
PPI m/m
USD
1:30am
AUD
Cash Rate
9:00am
EUR
12:30pm
USD
12:30pm
USD
Tentative
NZD
8:30am
GBP
CPI y/y
12:30pm
CAD
12:30pm
USD
CPI m/m
Core CPI m/m
1:45am
CNY
4:30am
AUD
4:30am
AUD
8:30am
GBP
Manufacturing PMI
12:30pm
CAD
GDP m/m
2:00pm
USD
NZD
1:30am
AUD
Fri 11
Tue 15
Wed 16
AUD
GDP q/q
12:30pm
USD
12:15pm
USD
10:45pm
NZD
GDP q/q
1:30am
AUD
7:30am
CHF
Libor Rate
1:30am
AUD
Trade Balance
7:30am
CHF
8:30am
GBP
Services PMI
8:30am
GBP
11:45am
EUR
8:30am
GBP
12:30pm
CAD
Trade Balance
12:30pm
USD
Building Permits
12:30pm
EUR
12:30pm
USD
Unemployment Claims
12:30pm
USD
Trade Balance
2:00pm
USD
12:30pm
USD
Unemployment Claims
6:00pm
USD
2:00pm
CAD
Ivey PMI
6:00pm
USD
FOMC Statement
2:00pm
USD
6:00pm
USD
12:30pm
CAD
Employment Change
6:30pm
USD
12:30pm
CAD
Unemployment Rate
8:30am
GBP
12:30pm
USD
12:30pm
USD
Unemployment Rate
Thu 17
Fri 18
Mon 21
12:30pm
CAD
12:30pm
CAD
1:45am
CNY
7:00am
EUR
7:30am
EUR
Tentative
JPY
Tentative
JPY
8:00am
EUR
GBP
8:30am
GBP
Construction PMI
1:30am
AUD
Tentative
CNY
Trade Balance
8:30am
GBP
9:00am
GBP
1:30am
CNY
CPI y/y
12:30pm
CAD
8:30am
2:00pm
CAD
12:30pm
2:00pm
CAD
Overnight Rate
9:15am
EUR
Targeted LTRO
9:00pm
9:00pm
NZD
NZD
12:30pm
USD
12:30pm
USD
Unemployment Claims
9:00pm
NZD
Fri 25
12:30pm
USD
1:30am
AUD
Employment Change
Mon 28
9:45pm
NZD
Trade Balance
AUD
Unemployment Rate
Tue 29
1:30am
Thu 10
USD
2:00pm
Manufacturing PMI
1:30am
Wed 2
12:30pm
CNY
Tentative
FX
11:00am
GBP
Tue 22
Wed 23
Thu 24
Tentative
GBP
12:30pm
USD
Unemployment Claims
5:30am
CNY
Wed 30
CAD
2:00pm
USD
CB Consumer Confidence
12:00am
NZD
8:30am
GBP
Current Account
12:15pm
USD
12:30pm
CAD
GDP m/m
give light
and people will find their way
www.fxtradermagazine.com