Global Warming - Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia

11/13/2009
Global warming - Wikipedia, the free
Global warming
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the

Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and
its projected continuation. Global surface temperature increased
0.74 0.18 C (1.33 0.32 F) during the last century.[1][A] The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that
most of the observed temperature increase since the middle of the
20th century was caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse
gases resulting from human activity such as fossil fuel burning and
deforestation.[1] The IPCC also concludes that variations in natural
phenomena such as solar radiation and volcanoes produced most of
the warming from pre-industrial times to 1950 and had a small
cooling effect afterward.[2][3] These basic conclusions have been
endorsed by more than 40 scientific societies and academies of
science,[B] including all of the national academies of science of the
major industrialized countries.[4]
Climate model projections summarized in the latest IPCC report
indicate that the global surface temperature will probably rise a
further 1.1 to 6.4 C (2.0 to 11.5 F) during the twenty-first
century.[1] The uncertainty in this estimate arises from the use of
models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations
and the use of differing estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions.
Some other uncertainties include how warming and related changes
will vary from region to region around the globe. Most studies focus
on the period up to the year 2100. However, warming is expected
to continue beyond 2100 even if emissions stop, because of the
large heat capacity of the oceans and the long lifetime of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere.[5][6]
An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and
will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, probably
including expansion of subtropical deserts.[7] The continuing retreat
of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice is expected, with warming being
strongest in the Arctic. Other likely effects include increases in the
intensity of extreme weather events, species extinctions, and
changes in agricultural yields.
Comparison of ground based (blue) and

satellite based (red: UAH; green: RSS)
records of temperature variations since
1979. Trends plotted since January 1982.
Global mean surface temperature

difference from the average for 19611990
Mean surface temperature change for the

period 1999 to 2008 relative to the average
temperatures from 1940 to 1980
Political and public debate continues regarding climate change, and

what actions (if any) to take in response. The available options are mitigation to reduce further emissions;
adaptation to reduce the damage caused by warming; and, more speculatively, geoengineering to reverse global
warming. Most national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing greenhouse
gas emissions.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming
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Contents
1 Temperature changes
2 Radiative forcing
2.1 Greenhouse gases
2.2 Aerosols and soot
2.3 Solar variation
3 Feedback
4 Climate models
5 Attributed and expected effects
5.1 Environmental
5.2 Economic
6 Responses to global warming
6.1 Mitigation
6.2 Adaptation
6.3 Geoengineering
7 Debate and skepticism
8 See also
9 Notes
10 References
11 Further reading
12 External links
Temperature changes
Main article: Temperature record
The most commonly discussed measure of global warming is the trend in
globally averaged temperature near the Earth's surface. Expressed as a linear
trend, this temperature rose by 0.74C 0.18C over the period 19062005. The rate of warming over the last half of that period was almost
double that for the period as a whole (0.13C 0.03C per decade, versus
0.07C 0.02C per decade). The urban heat island effect is estimated to
account for about 0.002 C of warming per decade since 1900.[8]
Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.12 and
0.22 C (0.22 and 0.4 F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite
temperature measurements. Temperature is believed to have been relatively
stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with regionallyvarying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age.
Two millennia of mean surface

temperatures according to
different reconstructions, each
smoothed on a decadal scale.
The unsmoothed, annual value
for 2004 is also plotted for
reference.
Based on estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2005

was the warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements
became available in the late 1800s, exceeding the previous record set in 1998 by a few hundredths of a
degree.[9] Estimates prepared by the World Meteorological Organization and the Climatic Research Unit
concluded that 2005 was the second warmest year, behind 1998.[10][11] Temperatures in 1998 were unusually
warm because the strongest El Nio in the past century occurred during that year.[12] Global temperature is
subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative
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stability in temperature from 1999 to 2009 is consistent with such an episode.[13] [14]
Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as
ocean temperatures (0.25 C per decade against 0.13 C per decade).[15] Ocean temperatures increase more
slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean
loses more heat by evaporation.[16] The Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere
because it has more land and because it has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to the
ice-albedo feedback. Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere
this does not contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to
mix between hemispheres.[17]
The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can take
centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse
gases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.5 C (0.9 F) would still occur.[18]
Radiative forcing
Main article: Radiative forcing
External forcing is a term used in climate science for processes external to the climate system (though not
necessarily external to Earth). Climate responds to several types of external forcing, such as changes in
greenhouse gas concentrations, changes in solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth's orbit
around the Sun.[2] Attribution of recent climate change focuses on the first three types of forcing. Orbital cycles
vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and thus are too gradual to have caused the temperature changes
observed in the past century.
Greenhouse gases
Main articles: Greenhouse gas and Greenhouse effect
The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of
infrared radiation by gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower
atmosphere and surface. It was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824
and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896.[19]
Existence of the greenhouse effect as such is not disputed, even by those
who do not agree that the recent temperature increase is attributable to
human activity. The question is instead how the strength of the greenhouse
effect changes when human activity increases the concentrations of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of
about 33 C (59 F).[20][C] The major greenhouse gases are water
vapor, which causes about 3670 percent of the greenhouse effect;
carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 926 percent; methane (CH4),
which causes 49 percent; and ozone (O3), which causes 37
percent.[21][22] Clouds also affect the radiation balance, but they are
composed of liquid water or ice and so are considered separately from
water vapor and other gases.
Greenhouse effect schematic

showing energy flows between
space, the atmosphere, and earth's
surface. Energy exchanges are
expressed in watts per square
meter (W/m2).
Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount
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of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative

forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous
oxide. The concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 36%
and 148% respectively since the mid-1700s.[23] These levels are much
higher than at any time during the last 650,000 years, the period for which
reliable data has been extracted from ice cores.[24] Less direct geological
evidence indicates that CO2 values this high were last seen about 20
million years ago.[25] Fossil fuel burning has produced about threequarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20
years. Most of the rest is due to land-use change, particularly
deforestation.[26]
Recent atmospheric carbon

dioxide (CO2) increases. Monthly
CO2 measurements display
seasonal oscillations in overall
yearly uptrend; each year's
maximum occurs during the
Northern Hemisphere's late spring,
and declines during its growing
season as plants remove some
atmospheric CO2.
CO2 concentrations are continuing to rise due to burning of fossil fuels and land-use change. The future rate of
rise will depend on uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments. Accordingly, the
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios gives a wide range of future CO2 scenarios, ranging from 541 to
970 ppm by the year 2100.[27] Fossil fuel reserves are sufficient to reach these levels and continue emissions
past 2100 if coal, tar sands or methane clathrates are extensively exploited.[28]
The destruction of stratospheric ozone by chlorofluorocarbons is sometimes mentioned in relation to global
warming. Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduction of
stratospheric ozone has a cooling influence, but substantial ozone depletion did not occur until the late 1970s.[29]
Tropospheric ozone contributes to surface warming.[30]
Aerosols and soot

Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance
at the Earth's surface, has partially counteracted global warming from 1960
to the present.[31] The main cause of this dimming is aerosols produced by
volcanoes and pollutants. These aerosols exert a cooling effect by increasing
the reflection of incoming sunlight. James Hansen and colleagues have
proposed that the effects of the products of fossil fuel combustionCO2
and aerosolshave largely offset one another in recent decades, so that net
warming has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases.[32]
In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation,
aerosols have indirect effects on the radiation budget.[33] Sulfate aerosols act
as cloud condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more and
smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently
than clouds with fewer and larger droplets.[34] This effect also causes
droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth of raindrops and
makes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight.[35]
Ship tracks over the Atlantic

Ocean on the east coast of the
United States. The climatic
impacts from aerosol forcing
could have a large effect on
climate through the indirect
effect.
Soot may cool or warm, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited. Atmospheric soot aerosols directly
absorb solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere and cools the surface. Regionally (but not globally), as much
as 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric brown clouds.[36] When
deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower surface albedo can also directly heat the
surface.[37] The influences of aerosols, including black carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics and subtropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics and southern
hemisphere.[38]
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Solar variation
Main article: Solar variation
Variations in solar output have been the cause of past climate changes.[39]
Although solar forcing is generally thought to be too small to account for a
significant part of global warming in recent decades,[40][41] a few studies
disagree, such as a recent phenomenological analysis that indicates the
contribution of solar forcing may be underestimated.[42]
Greenhouse gases and solar forcing affect temperatures in different ways.
Solar variation over the last
While both increased solar activity and increased greenhouse gases are
thirty years.
expected to warm the troposphere, an increase in solar activity should warm
the stratosphere while an increase in greenhouse gases should cool the
stratosphere.[2] Observations show that temperatures in the stratosphere have been steady or cooling since
1979, when satellite measurements became available. Radiosonde (weather balloon) data from the pre-satellite
era show cooling since 1958, though there is greater uncertainty in the early radiosonde record.[43]
A related hypothesis, proposed by Henrik Svensmark, is that magnetic activity of the sun deflects cosmic rays
that may influence the generation of cloud condensation nuclei and thereby affect the climate.[44] Other research
has found no relation between warming in recent decades and cosmic rays.[45][46] A recent study concluded that
the influence of cosmic rays on cloud cover is about a factor of 100 lower than needed to explain the observed
changes in clouds or to be a significant contributor to present-day climate change.[47]
Feedback
Main article: Effects of global warming
A positive feedback is a process that amplifies some change. Thus, when a warming trend results in effects that
induce further warming, the result is a positive feedback; when the warming results in effects that reduce the
original warming, the result is a negative feedback. The main positive feedback in global warming involves the
tendency of warming to increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. The main negative feedback in
global warming is the effect of temperature on emission of infrared radiation: as the temperature of a body
increases, the emitted radiation increases with the fourth power of its absolute temperature.
Water vapor feedback
If the atmosphere is warmed, the saturation vapor pressure increases, and the amount of water vapor in
the atmosphere will tend to increase. Since water vapor is a greenhouse gas, the increase in water vapor
content makes the atmosphere warm further; this warming causes the atmosphere to hold still more water
vapor (a positive feedback), and so on until other processes stop the feedback loop. The result is a much
larger greenhouse effect than that due to CO2 alone. Although this feedback process causes an increase
in the absolute moisture content of the air, the relative humidity stays nearly constant or even decreases
slightly because the air is warmer.[48]
Cloud feedback
Warming is expected to change the distribution and type of clouds. Seen from below, clouds emit infrared
radiation back to the surface, and so exert a warming effect; seen from above, clouds reflect sunlight and
emit infrared radiation to space, and so exert a cooling effect. Whether the net effect is warming or
cooling depends on details such as the type and altitude of the cloud. These details were poorly observed
before the advent of satellite data and are difficult to represent in climate models.[48]
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Lapse rate
The atmosphere's temperature decreases with height in the troposphere. Since emission of infrared
radiation varies with temperature, longwave radiation escaping to space from the relatively cold upper
atmosphere is less than that emitted toward the ground from the lower atmosphere. Thus, the strength of
the greenhouse effect depends on the atmosphere's rate of temperature decrease with height. Both theory
and climate models indicate that global warming will reduce the rate of temperature decrease with height,
producing a negative lapse rate feedback that weakens the greenhouse effect. Measurements of the rate
of temperature change with height are very sensitive to small errors in observations, making it difficult to
establish whether the models agree with observations.[49]
Ice-albedo feedback
When ice melts, land or open water takes its place. Both land and
open water are on average less reflective than ice and thus absorb
more solar radiation. This causes more warming, which in turn causes
more melting, and this cycle continues.[50]
Arctic methane release
Warming is also the triggering variable for the release of methane in
the arctic.[51] Methane released from thawing permafrost such as the
Aerial photograph showing a
frozen peat bogs in Siberia, and from methane clathrate on the sea
section of sea ice. The lighter
floor, creates a positive feedback.[52]
blue areas are melt ponds and
the darkest areas are open
Reduced absorption of CO2 by the oceanic ecosystems
water, both have a lower
Ocean ecosystems' ability to sequester carbon is expected to decline
albedo than the white sea ice.
as the oceans warm. This is because warming reduces the nutrient
The melting ice contributes to
levels of the mesopelagic zone (about 200 to 1000 m deep), which
the ice-albedo feedback.
limits the growth of diatoms in favor of smaller phytoplankton that are
poorer biological pumps of carbon.[53]
CO2 release from oceans
Cooler water can absorb more CO2. As ocean temperatures rise some of this CO2 will be released. This
is one of the main reasons why atmospheric CO2 is lower during an ice age. There is a greater mass of
CO2 contained in the oceans than there is in the atmosphere.
Gas release
Release of gases of biological origin may be affected by global warming, but research into such effects is
at an early stage. Some of these gases, such as nitrous oxide released from peat, directly affect
climate.[54] Others, such as dimethyl sulfide released from oceans, have indirect effects.[55]
Climate models
Main article: Global climate model
The main tools for projecting future climate changes are mathematical models
based on physical principles including fluid dynamics, thermodynamics and
radiative transfer. Although they attempt to include as many processes as
possible, simplifications of the actual climate system are inevitable because of
the constraints of available computer power and limitations in knowledge of
the climate system. All modern climate models are in fact combinations of
models for different parts of the Earth. These include an atmospheric model
for air movement, temperature, clouds, and other atmospheric properties; an
ocean model that predicts temperature, salt content, and circulation of ocean
waters; models for ice cover on land and sea; and a model of heat and
Calculations of global warming

prepared in or before 2001
from a range of climate
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moisture transfer from soil and vegetation to the atmosphere. Some models
also include treatments of chemical and biological processes.[56] Warming
due to increasing levels of greenhouse gases is not an assumption of the
models; rather, it is an end result from the interaction of greenhouse gases
with radiative transfer and other physical processes in the models.[57]
Although much of the variation in model outcomes depends on the
greenhouse gas emissions used as inputs, the temperature effect of a specific
greenhouse gas concentration (climate sensitivity) varies depending on the
model used. The representation of clouds is one of the main sources of
uncertainty in present-generation models.[58]
Global climate model projections of future climate most often have used
estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from the IPCC Special Report on
Emissions Scenarios (SRES). In addition to human-caused emissions, some
models also include a simulation of the carbon cycle; this generally shows a
positive feedback, though this response is uncertain. Some observational
studies also show a positive feedback.[59][60][61] Including uncertainties in
future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate sensitivity, the IPCC
anticipates a warming of 1.1 C to 6.4 C (2.0 F to 11.5 F) by the end of
the 21st century, relative to 19801999.[1]
from a range of climate

models under the SRES A2
emissions scenario, which
assumes no action is taken to
reduce emissions and
regionally divided economic
development.
The geographic distribution of

surface warming during the
21st century calculated by the
HadCM3 climate model if a
business as usual scenario is
assumed for economic growth
and greenhouse gas emissions.
In this figure, the globally
averaged warming
corresponds to 3.0 C
(5.4 F).
Models are also used to help investigate the causes of recent climate change
by comparing the observed changes to those that the models project from
various natural and human-derived causes. Although these models do not
unambiguously attribute the warming that occurred from approximately 1910
to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects, they do indicate that the warming since 1970 is dominated
by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.[62]
The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past climates.[63] Current
climate models produce a good match to observations of global temperature changes over the last century, but
do not simulate all aspects of climate.[26] While a 2007 study by David Douglass and colleagues found that the
models did not accurately predict observed changes in the tropical troposphere,[64] a 2008 paper published by
a 17-member team led by Ben Santer noted errors and incorrect assumptions in the Douglass study, and found
instead that the models and observations were not statistically different.[65] Not all effects of global warming are
accurately predicted by the climate models used by the IPCC. For example, observed Arctic shrinkage has
been faster than that predicted.[66]
Attributed and expected effects

Environmental
Main articles: Effects of global warming and Regional effects of global warming
It usually is impossible to connect specific weather events to global warming.
Instead, global warming is expected to cause changes in the overall
distribution and intensity of events, such as changes to the frequency and
intensity of heavy precipitation. Broader effects are expected to include
glacial retreat, Arctic shrinkage, and worldwide sea level rise. Some effects
on both the natural environment and human life are, at least in part, already
being attributed to global warming. A 2001 report by the IPCC suggests that
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glacier retreat, ice shelf disruption such as that of the Larsen Ice Shelf, sea
level rise, changes in rainfall patterns, and increased intensity and frequency
of extreme weather events are attributable in part to global warming.[67]
Other expected effects include water scarcity in some regions and increased
precipitation in others, changes in mountain snowpack, and some adverse
health effects from warmer temperatures.[68]
Sparse records indicate that

glaciers have been retreating
since the early 1800s. In the
1950s measurements began
that allow the monitoring of
glacial mass balance, reported
to the WGMS and the NSIDC.
Social and economic effects of global warming may be exacerbated by

growing population densities in affected areas. Temperate regions are projected to experience some benefits,
such as fewer cold-related deaths.[69] A summary of probable effects and recent understanding can be found in
the report made for the IPCC Third Assessment Report by Working Group II.[67] The newer IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report summary reports that there is observational evidence for an increase in intense tropical
cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Ocean since about 1970, in correlation with the increase in sea surface
temperature (see Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), but that the detection of long-term trends is complicated by
the quality of records prior to routine satellite observations. The summary also states that there is no clear trend
in the annual worldwide number of tropical cyclones.[1]
Additional anticipated effects include sea level rise of 0.18 to 0.59 meters (0.59 to 1.9 ft) in 2090-2100 relative
to 1980-1999,[1] new trade routes resulting from arctic shrinkage,[70] possible thermohaline circulation slowing,
increasingly intense (but less frequent) hurricanes and extreme weather events,[71] reductions in the ozone layer,
changes in agriculture yields, changes in the range of climate-dependent disease vectors,[72] which has been
linked to increases in the prevalence of malaria and dengue fever,[73] and ocean oxygen depletion.[74] Increased
atmospheric CO2 increases the amount of CO2 dissolved in the oceans.[75] CO2 dissolved in the ocean reacts
with water to form carbonic acid, resulting in ocean acidification. Ocean surface pH is estimated to have
decreased from 8.25 near the beginning of the industrial era to 8.14 by 2004,[76] and is projected to decrease
by a further 0.14 to 0.5 units by 2100 as the ocean absorbs more CO2.[1][77] Heat and carbon dioxide trapped
in the oceans may still take hundreds years to be re-emitted, even after greenhouse gas emissions are eventually
reduced.[6] Since organisms and ecosystems are adapted to a narrow range of pH, this raises extinction
concerns and disruptions in food webs.[78] One study predicts 18% to 35% of a sample of 1,103 animal and
plant species would be extinct by 2050, based on future climate projections.[79] However, few mechanistic
studies have documented extinctions due to recent climate change,[80] and one study suggests that projected
rates of extinction are uncertain.[81]
Economic
Main articles: Economics of global warming and Low-carbon economy
The IPCC reports the aggregate net economic costs of damages from
climate change globally (discounted to the specified year). In 2005, the
average social cost of carbon from 100 peer-reviewed estimates is US$12
per tonne of CO2, but range -$3 to $95/tCO2. The IPCC's gives these cost
estimates with the caveats, "Aggregate estimates of costs mask significant
differences in impacts across sectors, regions and populations and very
likely underestimate damage costs because they cannot include many nonquantifiable impacts."[82]
One widely publicized report on potential economic impact is the Stern
Review, written by Sir Nicholas Stern. It suggests that extreme weather
might reduce global gross domestic product by up to one percent, and that in
Projected temperature increase

for a range of stabilization
scenarios (the colored bands).
The black line in middle of the
shaded area indicates 'best
estimates'; the red and the blue
lines the likely limits. From
IPCC AR4
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IPCC AR4.
a worst-case scenario global per capita consumption could fall by the

equivalent of 20 percent.[83] The response to the Stern Review was mixed.
The Review's methodology, advocacy and conclusions were criticized by several economists, including Richard
Tol, Gary Yohe,[84] Robert Mendelsohn[85] and William Nordhaus.[86] Economists that have generally
supported the Review include Terry Barker,[87] William Cline,[88] and Frank Ackerman.[89] According to
Barker, the costs of mitigating climate change are 'insignificant' relative to the risks of unmitigated climate
change.[90]
According to United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), economic sectors likely to face difficulties
related to climate change include banks, agriculture, transport and others.[91] Developing countries dependent
upon agriculture will be particularly harmed by global warming.[92]
Responses to global warming

The broad agreement among climate scientists that global temperatures will continue to increase has led some
nations, states, corporations and individuals to implement responses. These responses to global warming can be
divided into mitigation of the causes and effects of global warming, adaptation to the changing global
environment, and geoengineering to reverse global warming.
Mitigation
Main article: Mitigation of global warming
Mitigation of global warming is accomplished through reductions in the rate
of anthropogenic greenhouse gas release. Models suggest that mitigation can
quickly begin to slow global warming, but that temperatures will appreciably
decrease only after several centuries.[93] The world's primary international
agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions is the Kyoto Protocol, an
amendment to the UNFCCC negotiated in 1997. The Protocol now covers
more than 160 countries and over 55 percent of global greenhouse gas
emissions.[94] As of June 2009, only the United States, historically the
world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has refused to ratify the treaty.
The treaty expires in 2012. International talks began in May 2007 on a future
treaty to succeed the current one.[95] UN negotiations are now gathering
pace in advance of a meeting in Copenhagen in December 2009.[96]
Many environmental groups encourage individual action against global
warming, as well as community and regional actions. Others have suggested
a quota on worldwide fossil fuel production, citing a direct link between fossil
fuel production and CO2 emissions.[97][98]
Carbon capture and storage

(CCS) is an approach to
mitigation. Emissions may be
sequestered from fossil fuel
power plants, or removed
during processing in hydrogen
production. When used on
plants, it is known as bioenergy with carbon capture
and storage.
There has also been business action on climate change, including efforts to improve energy efficiency and limited
moves towards use of alternative fuels. In January 2005 the European Union introduced its European Union
Emission Trading Scheme, through which companies in conjunction with government agree to cap their
emissions or to purchase credits from those below their allowances. Australia announced its Carbon Pollution
Reduction Scheme in 2008. United States President Barack Obama has announced plans to introduce an
economy-wide cap and trade scheme.[99]
The IPCC's Working Group III is responsible for crafting reports on mitigation of global warming and the costs
and benefits of different approaches. The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report concludes that no one
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technology or sector can be completely responsible for mitigating future warming. They find there are key
practices and technologies in various sectors, such as energy supply, transportation, industry, and agriculture,
that should be implemented to reduced global emissions. They estimate that stabilization of carbon dioxide
equivalent between 445 and 710 ppm by 2030 will result in between a 0.6 percent increase and three percent
decrease in global gross domestic product.[100]
Adaptation
Main article: Adaptation to global warming
A wide variety of measures have been suggested for adaptation to global warming. These measures range from
the trivial, such as the installation of air-conditioning equipment, to major infrastructure projects, such as
abandoning settlements threatened by sea level rise.
Measures including water conservation,[101] water rationing, adaptive agricultural practices,[102] construction of
flood defences,[103] Martian colonization,[104] changes to medical care,[105] and interventions to protect
threatened species[106] have all been suggested. A wide-ranging study of the possible opportunities for
adaptation of infrastructure has been published by the Institute of Mechanical Engineers.[107]
Geoengineering
Main article: Geoengineering
Geoengineering is the deliberate modification of Earth's natural environment on a large scale to suit human
needs.[108] An example is greenhouse gas remediation, which removes greenhouse gases from the atmosphere,
usually through carbon sequestration techniques such as carbon dioxide air capture.[109] Solar radiation
management reduces absorbed solar radiation, such as by the addition of stratospheric sulfur aerosols [110] or
cool roof techniques.[111]. No large-scale geoengineering projects have yet been undertaken.
Debate and skepticism

Main articles: Global warming controversy and Politics of global warming
See also: Scientific opinion on climate change and Climate change denial
Increased publicity of the scientific findings surrounding global warming has
resulted in political and economic debate.[112] Poor regions, particularly
Africa, appear at greatest risk from the projected effects of global warming,
while their emissions have been small compared to the developed world.[113]
The exemption of developing countries from Kyoto Protocol restrictions has
been used to justify non-ratification by the U.S. and a previous Australian
Government.[114] (Australia has since ratified the Kyoto protocol.[115])
Another point of contention is the degree to which emerging economies such
as India and China should be expected to constrain their emissions.[116] The
U.S. contends that if it must bear the cost of reducing emissions, then China
should do the same[117][118] since China's gross national CO2 emissions now
exceed those of the U.S.[119][120][121] China has contended that it is less
obligated to reduce emissions since its per capita responsibility and per
capita emissions are less that of the U.S.[122] India, also exempt, has made
similar contentions.[123]
Per capita greenhouse gas

emissions in 2000, including
land-use change.
Per country greenhouse gas

emissions in 2000, including
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land-use change.
In 2007-2008 the Gallup Polls surveyed 127 countries. Over a third of the
world's population were unaware of global warming, developing countries less aware than developed, and
Africa the least aware. Awareness does not equate to belief that global warming is a result of human activities.
Of those aware, Latin America leads in belief that temperature changes are a result of human activities while
Africa, parts of Asia and the Middle East, and a few countries from the Former Soviet Union lead in the
opposite.[124] In the western world, the concept and the appropriate responses are contested. Nick Pidgeon of
Cardiff University finds that "results show the different stages of engagement about global warming on each side
of the Atlantic" where Europe debates the appropriate responses while the United States debates whether
climate change is happening.[125]
Debates weigh the benefits of limiting industrial emissions of greenhouse gases against the costs that such
changes would entail.[100] Using economic incentives, alternative and renewable energy have been promoted to
reduce emissions while building infrastructure.[126][127] Business-centered organizations such as the Competitive
Enterprise Institute, conservative commentators, and companies such as ExxonMobil have downplayed IPCC
climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus, and provided their own
projections of the economic cost of stricter controls.[128][129][130][131] Environmental organizations and public
figures have emphasized changes in the current climate and the risks they entail, while promoting adaptation to
changes in infrastructural needs and emissions reductions.[132] Some fossil fuel companies have scaled back their
efforts in recent years,[133] or called for policies to reduce global warming.[134]
Some global warming skeptics in the science or political community dispute all or some of the global warming
scientific consensus, questioning whether global warming is actually occurring, whether human activity has
contributed significantly to the warming, and on the magnitude of the threat posed by global warming. Prominent
global warming skeptics include Richard Lindzen, Fred Singer, Patrick Michaels, John Christy, and Robert
Balling.[135][136][137]
See also
Glossary of climate change
Index of climate change articles
Notes
A. ^ Increase is for years 1905 to 2005. Global surface temperature is defined in the IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report as the average of near-surface air temperature over land and sea surface temperature. These error
bounds are constructed with a 90% uncertainty interval.
B. ^ The 2001 joint statement was signed by the national academies of science of Australia, Belgium, Brazil,
Canada, the Caribbean, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand,
Sweden, and the UK. The 2005 statement added Japan, Russia, and the U.S. The 2007 statement added Mexico
and South Africa. The Network of African Science Academies, and the Polish Academy of Sciences have
issued separate statements. Professional scientific societies include American Astronomical Society, American
Chemical Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Physics, American Meteorological
Society, American Physical Society, American Quaternary Association, Australian Meteorological and
Oceanographic Society, Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Meteorological
and Oceanographic Society, European Academy of Sciences and Arts, European Geosciences Union, European
Science Foundation, Geological Society of America, Geological Society of Australia, Geological Society of
London-Stratigraphy Commission, InterAcademy Council, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics,
International Union for Quaternary Research, National Association of Geoscience Teachers
(http://www.nagt.org/index.html) , National Research Council (US), Royal Meteorological Society, and World
Meteorological Organization.
C. ^ Note that the greenhouse effect produces an average worldwide temperature increase of about 33 C (59 F)
11/24
11/13/2009
compared to black body predictions without the greenhouse effect, not an average surface temperature of 33
C (91 F). The average worldwide surface temperature is about 14 C (57 F).
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2006/sep/20/oilandpetrol.business. Retrieved 2007-08-09.
^ "Exxon cuts ties to global warming skeptics (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16593606) ". MSNBC. 200701-12. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16593606. Retrieved 2007-05-02.
^ Sandell, Clayton (2007-01-03). "Report: Big Money Confusing Public on Global Warming
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^ U.S. Global Change Research Program (2009-06-06). "New Report Provides Authoritative Assessment of
National, Regional Impacts of Global Climate Change (http://www.globalchange.gov/images/cir/pdf/ClimateImpacts-PR_june-6-2009.pdf) " (PDF). Press release. http://www.globalchange.gov/images/cir/pdf/ClimateImpacts-PR_june-6-2009.pdf. Retrieved 2009-06-27.
^ "Greenpeace: Exxon still funding climate skeptics
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^ Ceres (2004-04-28). "Global Warming Resolutions at U.S. Oil Companies Bring Policy Commitments from
Leaders, and Record High Votes at Laggards (http://www.ceres.org/news/news_item.php?nid=56) ". Press
release. http://www.ceres.org/news/news_item.php?nid=56. Retrieved 2007-07-27.
^ de Granados, Oriana Zill (2007-04-24). "The Doubters of Global Warming
(http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/hotpolitics/reports/skeptics.html) ". Frontline.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/hotpolitics/reports/skeptics.html. Retrieved 2009-07-31.
^ Revkin, Andrew C. (2009-03-08). "Skeptics Dispute Climate Worries and Each Other
(http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/09/science/earth/09climate.html?
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(http://www.climatewise.org.uk/storage/610/financial_risks_of_climate_change.pdf) .
http://www.climatewise.org.uk/storage/610/financial_risks_of_climate_change.pdf.
Barnett, TP; Adam, JC; Lettenmaier, DP (2005-11-17). "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water
availability in snow-dominated regions
(http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v438/n7066/abs/nature04141.html) " (abstract). Nature 438 (7066):
303309. doi:10.1038/nature04141 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1038%2Fnature04141) . PMID 16292301
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v438/n7066/abs/nature04141.html.
Behrenfeld, MJ; O'malley, RT; Siegel, DA; Mcclain, CR; Sarmiento, JL; Feldman, GC; Milligan, AJ;
Falkowski, PG et al. (2006-12-07). "Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity
(http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/~davey/MyPapers/Behrenfeld_etal_2006_Nature.pdf) " (PDF). Nature 444
(7120): 752755. doi:10.1038/nature05317 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1038%2Fnature05317) . PMID 17151666
http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/~davey/MyPapers/Behrenfeld_etal_2006_Nature.pdf.
Choi, Onelack; Fisher, Ann (May 2005). "The Impacts of Socioeconomic Development and Climate Change
on Severe Weather Catastrophe Losses: Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and the U.S.
(http://www.springerlink.com/content/m6308777613702q0/) ". Climate Change 58 (12): 149170.
doi:10.1023/A:1023459216609 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1023%2FA%3A1023459216609) .
http://www.springerlink.com/content/m6308777613702q0/.
Dyurgerov, Mark B.; Meier, Mark F. (2005) (PDF). Glaciers and the Changing Earth System: a 2004
Snapshot (http://instaar.colorado.edu/other/download/OP58_dyurgerov_meier.pdf) . Institute of Arctic and
Alpine Research Occasional Paper #58. ISSN 0069-6145 (http://www.worldcat.org/issn/0069-6145) .
http://instaar.colorado.edu/other/download/OP58_dyurgerov_meier.pdf.
Emanuel, K (2005-08-04). "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years.
(ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/NATURE03906.pdf) " (PDF). Nature 436 (7051): 686688.
doi:10.1038/nature03906 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1038%2Fnature03906) . PMID 16056221
ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/NATURE03906.pdf.
Hansen, James; et al. (2005-06-03). "Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications
(http://pangea.stanford.edu/research/Oceans/GES205/Hansen_Science_Earth's%20Energy%20Balance.pdf)
" (PDF). Science 308 (5727): 14311435. doi:10.1126/science.1110252
(http://dx.doi.org/10.1126%2Fscience.1110252) . PMID 15860591
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Hinrichs, Kai-Uwe; Hmelo, Laura R.; Sylva, Sean P. (2003-02-21). "Molecular Fossil Record of Elevated
Methane Levels in Late Pleistocene Coastal Waters". Science 299 (5610): 12141217.
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Hirsch, Tim (2006-01-11). "Plants revealed as methane source
(http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4604332.stm) ". BBC.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4604332.stm.
Hoyt, Douglas V.; Schatten, Kenneth H. (199311). "A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations,
17001992 (http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-bib_query?
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Karnaukhov, A. V. (2001). "Role of the Biosphere in the Formation of the Earths Climate: The Greenhouse
Catastrophe (http://avturchin.narod.ru/Green.pdf) " (PDF). Biophysics 46 (6).
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Kenneth, James P.; et al. (2003-02-14). Methane Hydrates in Quaternary Climate Change: The Clathrate
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Keppler, Frank; et al. (2006-01-18). "Global Warming - The Blame Is not with the Plants
(http://www.mpg.de/english/illustrationsDocumentation/documentation/pressReleases/2006/pressRelease200
601131/index.html) ". Max Planck Society.
http://www.mpg.de/english/illustrationsDocumentation/documentation/pressReleases/2006/pressRelease200
601131/index.html.
Lean, Judith L.; Wang, Y.M.; Sheeley, N.R. (200212). "The effect of increasing solar activity on the Sun's
total and open magnetic flux during multiple cycles: Implications for solar forcing of climate
(http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002GeoRL..29x..77L) " (abstract). Geophysical Research Letters 29 (24):
2224. doi:10.1029/2002GL015880 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1029%2F2002GL015880) .
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002GeoRL..29x..77L.
Lerner, K. Lee; Lerner, K. Lee; Wilmoth, Brenda (2006-07-26). Environmental issues: essential primary
sources. Thomson Gale. ISBN 1414406258.
Muscheler, Raimund, R; Joos, F; Mller, SA; Snowball, I (2005-07-28). "Climate: How unusual is today's
solar activity? (http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/raimund/publications/Muscheler_et_al_Nature2005.pdf) "
(PDF). Nature 436 (7012): 10841087. doi:10.1038/nature04045
(http://dx.doi.org/10.1038%2Fnature04045) . PMID 16049429
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/raimund/publications/Muscheler_et_al_Nature2005.pdf.
Oerlemans, J. (2005-04-29). "Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records
(http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU05/04572/EGU05-J-04572.pdf) " (PDF). Science 308 (5722): 675
677. doi:10.1126/science.1107046 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1126%2Fscience.1107046) . PMID 15746388
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(http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint/306/5702/1686.pdf) " (PDF). Science 306 (5702): 1686.
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint/306/5702/1686.pdf.
Purse, BV; Mellor, PS; Rogers, DJ; Samuel, AR; Mertens, PP; Baylis, M (February 2005). "Climate change
and the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe
(http://www.nature.com/nrmicro/journal/v3/n2/abs/nrmicro1090_fs.html) " (abstract). Nature Reviews
Microbiology 3 (2): 171181. doi:10.1038/nrmicro1090 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1038%2Fnrmicro1090) .
PMID 15685226 (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15685226) .
http://www.nature.com/nrmicro/journal/v3/n2/abs/nrmicro1090_fs.html.
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(http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/25/science/earth/25core.html?
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http://www.whfreeman.com/ruddiman/.
Ruddiman, William F. (2005-08-01). Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of
Climate. New Jersey: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-12164-8.
Solanki, SK; Usoskin, IG; Kromer, B; Schssler, M; Beer, J (2004-10-23). "Unusual activity of the Sun
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External links
Research
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www.ipcc.ch) collection of IPCC reports
Climate Change at the National Academies (http://www.nas.edu/climatechange) repository for reports,
workshops, and meetings
Nature Reports Climate Change (http://www.nature.com/climate/index.html) free-access web resource
Met Office: Climate change (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/) UK National Weather Service
Global Science and Technology Sources on the Internet (http://www.istl.org/01-fall/internet.html)
extensive commented list of internet resources
Educational Global Climate Modelling (http://edgcm.columbia.edu/) (EdGCM) research-quality climate
change simulator
DISCOVER (http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/) satellite-based ocean and climate data since 1979 from NASA
Global Warming Art (http://www.globalwarmingart.com/) collection of figures and images
Educational
What Is Global Warming? (http://green.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/gwoverview.html) by National Geographic
Global Warming Frequently Asked Questions (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html)
from NOAA
Understanding Climate Change - Frequently Asked Questions
(http://www.ucar.edu/news/features/climatechange/faqs.jsp) from UCAR
Global Climate Change: NASA's Eyes on the Earth (http://climate.jpl.nasa.gov/) from NASA's JPL and
Caltech
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11/13/2009
OurWorld 2.0 (http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/series/climate/) from the United Nations University

Pew Center on Global Climate Change (http://www.pewclimate.org/) business and politics
Best Effort Global Warming Trajectories - Wolfram Demonstrations Project
(http://demonstrations.wolfram.com/BestEffortGlobalWarmingTrajectories/) by Harvey Lam
Koshland Science Museum - Global Warming Facts and Our Future (http://www.koshland-sciencemuseum.org/exhibitgcc/) graphical introduction from National Academy of Sciences
The Discovery of Global Warming - A History (http://www.aip.org/history/climate) by Spencer R.
Weart from The American Institute of Physics
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Global warming - Wikipedia, the free

Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the

Comparison of ground based (blue) and

Global mean surface temperature

Mean surface temperature change for the

Political and public debate continues regarding climate change, and

Global warming - Wikipedia, the free

Two millennia of mean surface

Based on estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2005

Global warming - Wikipedia, the free

Greenhouse effect schematic

Global warming - Wikipedia, the free

of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative

Recent atmospheric carbon

Aerosols and soot

Ship tracks over the Atlantic

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Calculations of global warming

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from a range of climate

The geographic distribution of

Attributed and expected effects

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Sparse records indicate that

Social and economic effects of global warming may be exacerbated by

Projected temperature increase

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a worst-case scenario global per capita consumption could fall by the

Responses to global warming

Carbon capture and storage

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Debate and skepticism

Per capita greenhouse gas

Per country greenhouse gas

Global warming - Wikipedia, the free

Global warming - Wikipedia, the free

Global warming - Wikipedia, the free

Global warming - Wikipedia, the free

surface temperature records since 1600 (http://www.fel.duke.edu/~scafetta/pdf/2007JD008437.pdf) ". Journal

Global warming - Wikipedia, the free

Global warming - Wikipedia, the free

Global warming - Wikipedia, the free

Global warming - Wikipedia, the free

Global warming - Wikipedia, the free

Global warming - Wikipedia, the free

Today. 2007-05-18. http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/globalwarming/2007-05-18-greenpeaceexxon_N.htm. Retrieved 2007-07-09.

Global warming - Wikipedia, the free

doi:10.1126/science.1079601 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1126%2Fscience.1079601) . PMID 12595688

Global warming - Wikipedia, the free

(http://www.whfreeman.com/ruddiman/) . New York: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-7167-3741-8.

Global warming - Wikipedia, the free

OurWorld 2.0 (http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/series/climate/) from the United Nations University

Retrieved from "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming"

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