BMO Nesbitt Burns - Research Highlights - March 5

Friday, March 5, 2010
*Click on title to view Comments **Click here to view Calendar of Events
Large Cap Stocks

TD Bank Q1/10 Earnings: A Strong Start to 2010 J. Reucassel
Bonavista Energy Trust Q4/09 Results: Glauc and Load G. Tait
Canadian Natural Res. Q4/09: Starting to Allocate the ‘Wall of Cash’ R. Ollenberger
Canadian Western Bank Q1/10 Results: Another Strong Quarter J. Reucassel
Fort Chicago Energy C. Kirst
4Q EPU Beat; 2010 Sees Power Pressure
Partners
Groupe Aeroplan Follow-Up on Downgrade to Market Perform C. Proulx
Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Target Price Increased to $18; Underperform Rating Maintained B. Powell
Small Cap Stocks

Q4/09 Results Above Expectations: Bright Future Justifies Above-Average M. Mazar
Calfrac Well Services
Valuation
Cascades Inc. Q4/09 Results Above Expectations S. Atkinson
Evertz Technologies Ltd. Target Price Lowered to $19; Q3/10 Results B. Piccioni
Target Price Lowered to $34; Outperform Rating Maintained; Thesis B. Powell
ShawCor
Remains Intact
Does It Really Matter?: Q4/09 Results Below Expectations but Well M. Mazar
Total Energy Services
Positioned Going Forward
Constellation Software Q4/09 Results: Better Revenues, Softer Margins T. Moschopoulos
Newalta Q4/09 Results: Industry Outlook Improves G. Tait
Corporate Debt
Canadian Natural Resources J. Parker
2009 Proves to Be the Year of the Balance Sheet Boost
Ltd.
TD Bank Strong Q1/10 Earnings; Credit Continues to Be a Drag G. Lazarevski
Industry/Macro Comments
North American
Energy - Oil & Gas Crude Thoughts: Weekly Commodity Commentary
Energy Team
Energy - Oil & Gas: Refiners Facing Reality; Refiners Report Disappointing Q4/09 J. Byrne
J. Reucassel/
Financials Federal Budget Good News for Canadian Financials
H. Brown
Quantitative Analysis Market Elements M. Steele
Economic Research A.M. Notes Economics
Disclosure Statements
To view important Disclosure Statements go to http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/Company_Disclosure_Public.asp
Friday, March 5, 2010
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Earnings & Conference Calls

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN) EPSQ4/09 BMO EPS ($0.01) vs. ($0.29) last year; First Call Mean $0.00
416-644-3418 or 877-974-0446; Replay: 877-289-8525 (Passcode: 4224434#);
 10:00 am
Webcast: www.AlgonquinPower.com
Capital Power Income L.P. (CPA.UN) EPU Q4/09 BMO EPU ($0.13) vs. ($0.91) last year; First Call Mean ($0.15)
416-340-8018 or 866-223-7781; Replay: 800-408-3053 (Passcode: 1237034);
 1:00 pm
Webcast: www.capitalpowerincome.ca
Celtic Exploration (CLT) CFPS Q4/09 BMO CFPS $0.91 vs. $0.78 last year
Trican Well Services (TCW) EPS Q4/09 BMO EPS ($0.01) vs. $0.31 last year; First Call Mean $0.01
866-223-7781 or 416-340-8018; Replay: 800-408-3053 (Passcode: 8014660#);
 11:00 am
Webcast: www.trican.ca
Union Drilling (UDRL) EPS Q4/09 BMO EPS (US$0.15) vs. US$0.19 last year; First Call Mean (US$0.17)
480-629-9722; Replay: 303-590-3030 (Passcode: 4209011#); Webcast:
 10:00 am
www.uniondrilling.com
SNC-Lavalin (SNC) EPS Q4/09 BMO Consolidated EPS$0.45 vs. $0.49 last year; First Call Mean $0.53
647-427-7450/514-807-9895 or 888-231-8191; Replay: 800-642-1687 (Passcode:
 54084670); Webcast: 2:00 pm
www.snclavalin.com/investors.php?lang=fr&action=quarterly&year=2009
Today's Events & Marketing

Keith Bachman
(Enterprise Hardware & Imaging  Marketing in Europe
Analyst)
David Radclyffe & David Cotterell

(Metals and Mining Analysts)  Marketing in Vancouver
Edward Sterck
(Metals & Mining Analyst)  Marketing in Toronto
Economics/Industry Data
Time Data Period BMO Capital Previous Consensus
Markets Estimate Period
8:30 am U.S. Unemployment Rate Feb. (e) 9.9% 9.7% 9.8%
Upcoming Events & Marketing

Edward Sterck
(Metals & Mining Analyst)  Marketing in Toronto Mar. 5-8
Karen Short
(Food Retailing Analyst)  Marketing in Vancouver Mar. 8
Jeffrey Logsdon
(Entertainment & Gaming Analyst)  Marketing in Texas Mar. 8-10

(Metals and Mining Analysts)  Marketing in Toronto Mar. 8-9
BOK Financial (BOKF)  Company presentation in the Mid-Atlantic Mar. 8-9

BMO Capital Markets Calendar of Events
Carl Kirst
(North American Pipeline Analyst)  Marketing in Montreal Mar. 9
Company presentation in Toronto. Mario Longhi (President, CEO & Director) and
Gerdau Ameristeel (GNA)  Mauricio Werneck (Treasurer).
Mar. 9
Edward Sterck
(Metals & Mining Analyst)  Marketing in Montreal Mar. 9
Company presentation in Montreal. Steve Douglas (President), Bryan Davis (CFO) and
Brookfield Properties (BPO)  Melissa Coley (Investor Relations).
Mar. 9
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)  Company presentation in Los Angeles. Jim Burns (Investor Relations). Mar. 9-10
Company presentation in Montreal & Toronto. Thomas W. Toomey (President & CEO)
UDR (UDR)  and H. Andrew Cantor (VP, Investor Relations).
Mar. 9-10

(Metals and Mining Analysts)  Marketing in Montreal Mar. 10
Edward Sterck
(Metals & Mining Analyst)  Marketing in Vancouver Mar. 10
Company presentation in Toronto & Montreal. Neil Manning (CEO) and John Hamilton
Wajax Income Fund (WJX.UN)  (CFO).
Mar. 10-11
Stephen Atkinson
(Paper & Forest Products Analyst)  Marketing in Chicago Mar. 11
Peter Rhamey
(Telecommunications Analyst)  Marketing in Connecticut Mar. 11
Edward Sterck
(Metals & Mining Analyst)  Marketing in Boston and New York Mar. 11-12

(Metals and Mining Analysts)  Marketing in Boston and New York Mar. 11-12
Gymboree (GYMB)  Company presentation in Denver. Jeff Harris (CFO) and Blair Lambert (COO). Mar. 12
Company presentation in New York. Joseph DePaolo (CEO), Eric Howell (CFO) and
Signature Bank (SBNY)  George Klett (EVP, Real Estate Lending).
Mar. 15
Ken Zaslow
(Food & Agribusiness Analyst)  Marketing on the West Coast Mar. 15-16
Randy Ollenberger
(Oil & Gas Producers & Integrated Oils  Marketing in Boston Mar. 15-16
Analyst)
Mike Mazar
(Oil & Gas Services Analyst)  Marketing in Boston Mar. 16
Tim Long
(Communications Equipment Analyst)  Marketing in Vancouver Mar. 16
Page 2  March 5, 2010 (Back to Index)

Jeff Silber
(Staffing & Education Analyst)  Marketing in Denver Mar. 16
Alan Laws
(Oil Services Analyst)  Marketing in the Mid-West Mar. 16-17
Company presentation in Boston. Andy Hove (President, OSK Defense Segment) and
Oshkosh (OSK)  Patrick Davidson (Director of Investor Relations).
Mar. 16-17
Andrew Kaip
(Precious Metals & Mining Analyst)  Marketing in Europe Mar. 16-19
Karen Short
(Food Retailing Analyst)  Marketing in Chicago Mar. 17
Tony Robson
(Metals & Mining Analyst)  Marketing in Vancouver Mar. 17-18
Tim Long
(Communications Equipment Analyst)  Marketing in San Francisco Mar. 17-18
Randy Ollenberger
(Oil & Gas Producers & Integrated Oils  Marketing in Boston & New York Mar. 17-19
Analyst)
Paul Adornato & Richard Anderson

(U.S. REITs Analysts)  Marketing in Chicago Mar. 18
Jim Byrne
(Integrated Oils & Refiners Analyst)  Marketing in Montreal Mar. 18
Charles Brady
(Diversified Industrials Research)  Marketing in New York Mar. 18
Wayne Hood
(Broadline Retailing Analyst)  Marketing in Minneapolis Mar. 19
Dan McSpirit
(Energy & Power Analyst)  Marketing in New York Mar. 19
Home Capital Group (HCG)  Company presentation in Vancouver Mar. 22
Company presentation in Europe. Rick Clark (CEO) and Simon Jackson (VP, Corporate
Redback Mining (RBI)  Development).
Mar. 22-26
Atul Shah
(Diversified Financials Analyst)  Marketing in Vancouver Mar. 23
Company presentation in Toronto & Montreal. Paul McElligott (President & CEO) and
TimberWest Forest (TWF.UN)  Bev Park (Executive VP & CFO; President & COO – Couverdon Real Estate).
Mar. 23-24
Company presentation in the Pacific Northwest & San Francisco. Robert Weiss
The Cooper Cos. (COO)  (President & CEO) and Kim Duncan (Director, IR).
Mar. 23-24
Company presentation in Houson, Austin and Dallas. Tom Webb (CFO), Laura
CMS Energy (CMS)  Mountcastle (VP & Treasurer) and Phil McAndrews (Investor Relations).
Mar. 24-25

Bert Powell
(Special Situations Analyst)  Marketing in Vancouver Mar. 25
Christopher Brown
(Oil & Gas International Producers  Marketing in Europe Mar. 25-26
Analyst)
Peter Sklar
(Auto Parts & Special Situations  Marketing in Vancouver Mar. 26
Analyst)
Company presentation in Montreal. Linda Hasenfratz (CEO) and Mark Stoddart (Chief
Linamar (LNR)  Technology Officer & Executive VP, Marketing).
Mar. 26
Company presentation in Chicago. Armin Martens (President & CEO) and Jim Green
Artis REIT (AX.UN)  (CFO).
Mar. 31
Dan Salmon
(Marketing Services & Advertising  Marketing in Chicago Mar. 31-Apr. 1
Agencies Analyst)
Wayne Hood
(Broadline Retailing Analyst)  Marketing in New York Apr. 5-6
If you are interested in any of the above events, please contact your BMO Capital Markets Institutional Equity/Fixed Income salesperson, or the following:
Toronto Events: Laura Heuff 416-359-5816
Montreal Events: Marjorie Heppell at 514-286-7231
Western Canada Events: Jennifer Crombie 604-443-1452
U.S. Events: Angela Dong 212-702-1969
Europe Events: Hannah Pead 44-207-246- 5418
Sources: BMO Capital Markets; Thomson StreetEvents (www.streetevents.com)

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March 5, 2010
TD Bank Research Comment
Toronto, Ontario
(TD-TSX; TD-NYSE)
Stock Rating: Outperform

John Reucassel, CFA
Industry Rating: Market Perform
(416) 359-4379
Member of: Top 15 Large Cap Stock Selections John.Reucassel@bmo.com
Top 15 Income Stock Selections Assoc: John Fong, CFA, FSA
Top 15 Quantitative Stock Selections
Price (4-Mar) $69.71 52-Week High $70.00

Q1/10 Earnings: A Strong Start to 2010 Target Price $80.00 52-Week Low $34.31
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)
Price: High,Low,Close Earnings/Share
6.5
80
Event 70
6.0
5.5
Release of first-quarter cash EPS of $1.57. 60
5.0
50 4.5
Impact 40 4.0
Positive. Q1/10 results driven lower PCLs, better trading, and cost containment. 30 3.5
Volume (mln)
Overall, TD reported good growth in relatively high multiple businesses: 100 100
50 50
Canadian P&C and wealth management.
0 0
TD Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
150 150
Forecasts
100 100
We increased our 2010E and 2011E cash EPS to $5.70 and $6.55 from $5.25
50 50
and $6.10, respectively. The higher forecasts reflect lower PCL estimates in 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Last Data Point: March 3, 2010
both 2010 and 2011 as well as benefits from strong volume growth. Results in
U.S. retail are expected to remain modest. (FY-Oct.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS - cash $5.39 $4.19 $5.70 $6.55
P/E 12.2x 10.6x
Valuation EPS - GAAP $5.00 $3.61 $5.14 $5.99
P/E 13.6x 11.6x
We increased the target price to $80 from $74, reflecting higher 2010 and 2011
cash EPS estimates. The target multiple is 12.2x 2011E cash EPS. Cash ROE 16.2% 14.2% 14.8% 15.8%
Specific Prov. ($mm)$1,063 $2,016 $2,172 $1,285
Dividend $2.36 $2.44 $2.44 $2.44
Tier One Capital 9.8% 11.3% 11.6% 12.3%
Recommendation
Quarterly EPS - cash Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
TD remains Outperform rated. Management’s outlook for 2010 was more 2008A $1.42 $1.24 $1.34 $1.38
2009A $0.96 $0.82 $1.16 $1.25
upbeat than at the end of Q4/09, reflecting some more confidence on credit and 2010E $1.57a $1.37 $1.37 $1.39
strong results from the Canadian P&C and wealth management businesses. Dividend $2.44 Yield 3.5%
Given the uncertainty on capital rules, we do not believe that any dividend Book Value $41.86 Price/Book 1.7x
Shares O/S (mm) 862.0 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $60,090
increases, buybacks, or major acquisitions are currently contemplated. However, Float O/S (mm) 862.0 Float Cap ($mm) $60,090
Wkly Vol (000s) 19,047 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $1,049.5
we would not be surprised if the bank continued to look for medium-sized U.S. Net Debt ($mm) na Next Rep. Date 27-May (E)
acquisitions once capital rules and any new tax or fees in the U.S. have been Notes: All values in C$; EPS fd; CEPS add back amort. of intang. &
goodwill; 2006 EPS ex. gain on AMTD & other
finalized. Hopefully, economic conditions will also have improved and provide Major Shareholders: Widely held
a better picture of long term profitability in the U.S. operations. In the First Call Mean Estimates: TORONTO-DOMINION BANK (C$)
2010E: $5.48; 2011E: $6.50
meantime, Canada should continue to generate attractive earnings results.
Changes Annual EPS Annual EPS Quarterly EPS Target

2010E $5.25 to $5.70 2010E $4.69 to $5.14 Q2/10E $1.29 to $1.37 $74.00 to $80.00
2011E $6.10 to $6.55 2011E $5.55 to $5.99 Q3/10E $1.34 to $1.37
Q4/10E $1.37 to $1.39
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 6 to 9.
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March 5, 2010
Bonavista Energy Trust Research Comment
Calgary, Alberta
(BNP.UN-TSX)

Gordon Tait, CFA
(403) 515-1501
Gordon.Tait@bmo.com
Q4/09 Results: Glauc and Load Price (4-Mar)

Target Price
$24.57
$26.00 
52-Week High
52-Week Low
$24.85
$12.25
Bonavista Energy Trust (BNP.UN)

Event Price: High,Low,Close
40 40
Bonavista reported Q4/09 results. 35 35
30 30
Impact 25 25
20 20
Slightly Positive. Operating cash flow totalled $135.5 million ($0.93/unit),
15 15
compared with our forecast of $119.8 million ($0.82/unit) and the First Call 10 10
Volume (mln)
Mean estimate of $0.88/unit. 20 20
10 10
Forecasts 0
BNP.UN Relative to S&P/TSX Comp TRI
0
150 150
We have increased our CFPU estimates to $3.36 from $3.16 in 2010 and to
100 100
$3.70 from $3.55 in 2011. Our cash distribution per unit estimates are
unchanged at $1.92 in both years. 50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
50
Valuation (FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E

CDPU $3.60 $2.00 $1.92 $1.92
Our $26 target price is based on 9.2x 2010E debt-adjusted cash flow, compared P/CDPU 12.8x 12.8x
with the peer group average of 8.7x. CFPU $5.64 $3.46 $3.36 $3.70
P/CFPU 7.3x 6.6x
Recommendation Oil & Liq (b/d) 24,079 23,484 24,000 25,000

Nat. Gas (MMcf/d) 174.7 190.9 231.0 240.0
Bonavista’s Q4 results were generally better than expected. The trust’s most Boe/d (6:1) 53,190 55,299 62,500 65,000
EV/EBITDA 5.6x 7.8x 9.1x 8.0x
recent Glauconite wells are performing better than previously drilled wells and
Quarterly CDPU Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
are costing less. In addition to the 245 identified Glauconite drilling locations, 2008A $0.90 $0.90 $0.90 $0.90
we believe Bonavista has opportunities for horizontal Cardium oil development 2009A $0.56 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48
2010E $0.48 $0.48 $0.48 $0.48
on up to 150 net sections of its Cardium lands in its Central Alberta core area.
Annual Dist. $1.92 Yield 7.8%
Bonavista is a low-cost operator and has consistently demonstrated above- Book Value $11.80 Price/Book 2.1x
Units O/S (mm) 146.1 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $3,590
average recycle ratios. The trust has 1.3 million net acres of undeveloped land Float O/S (mm) 124.6 Float Cap ($mm) $3,061
and the recently closed acquisition of Hoadley lands has increased its drilling Wkly Vol (000s) 1,726 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $33.9
Net Debt ($mm) $869.8 Next Rep. Date May (E)
inventory to 860 locations. We believe this should provide BNP with years Notes: All values in C$; Units O/S incl. exchangeable shares; Net
worth of development opportunities to replenish reserves and to maintain/grow debt incl. convertible debentures
Major Unitholders: Management & Directors (15%)
its production profile. Based on our total return outlook, we rate Bonavista First Call Mean Estimates: BONAVISTA ENERGY TRUST (C$/DI)
2009E: $2.01; 2010E: $1.92; 2011E: $1.92
Energy Trust Outperform.
Changes Annual CFPS

2010E $3.16 to $3.36
2011E $3.55 to $3.70
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March 5, 2010
Canadian Natural Res. Research Comment
Calgary, Alberta
(CNQ-TSX; CNQ-NYSE)

Randy Ollenberger
(403) 515-1502
Member of: Top 15 Large Cap Stock Selections Randy.Ollenberger@bmo.com
Assoc: Jared Dziuba
Q4/09: Starting to Allocate the ‘Wall of Cash’ Price (4-Mar)

Target Price
$71.96
$90.00 
52-Week High
52-Week Low
$79.00
$37.80
Canadian Natural Res. (CNQ)

120 120
Canadian Natural reported strong fourth-quarter financial results, driven by 100 100
lower operating costs and strong realized pricing. Reported cash flow per share 80 80
from operations was $3.14 versus our estimate of $2.78 and consensus of $2.91. 60 60
Production averaged 574,857 boe/d compared to our estimate of 576,700 boe/d
40 40
and consensus of 577,000 boe/d. The company also announced a 43% increase
20 20
in its quarterly dividend to $0.15/share, as well as a share repurchase program of 100
Volume (mln)
100
up to 2.5% of shares, and plans to split the shares on a two-for-one basis. 50 50
0 0
CNQ Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
Impact 200 200
Mixed. 100 100
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Forecasts Last Data Point: March 3, 2010
We are revising our financial estimates to reflect year-end results and updated (FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
CFPS $12.00 $11.04 $11.11 $12.74
guidance. We are lowering our 2010 cash flow estimate to $11.11 from $11.64, P/CFPS 6.5x 5.6x
and our 2011 estimate to $12.74 from $12.87, primarily reflecting guidance for
EPS $6.46 $5.11 $5.14 $6.06
higher cash taxes. Our outlook assumes production of 611,686 boe/d in 2010 P/E 14.0x 11.9x
and 649,872 boe/d in 2011. NAV $90.02 $100.24 $103.19 $114.10

ROCE (%) 13% 9% 10% 12%
Valuation D/CF 1.8x 1.7x 1.6x 1.2x
Quarterly CFPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
We believe Canadian Natural shares are attractive at current levels given the 2008A $2.99 $3.24 $3.12 $2.65
combination of strong organic growth and free cash flow. We estimate that the 2009A $2.64 $2.51 $2.77 $3.13
2010E $2.69 $2.51 $2.91 $3.00
company can deliver production growth of 6% in 2010 and 2011 while
Dividend $0.60 Yield 0.8%
generating free cash flow of more than $3.3 billion, which suggests ample room Book Value $35.82 Price/Book 2.0x
for further increases in dividends, share buybacks or potential acquisitions to Shares O/S (mm) 542.3 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $39,024
Float O/S (mm) 520.8 Float Cap ($mm) $37,479
enhance shareholder value. Our $90 target price implies a 2011E cash flow Wkly Vol (000s) 21,656 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $1,297.9
Net Debt ($mm) $10,172.0 Next Rep. Date May (E)
multiple of 7.1x and a 13% discount to our 2010 net asset value estimate of
Notes: All values in C$; EPS (Diluted), CFPS (Diluted Disc.)
$103.19. Major Shareholders: Fidelity (6.8%), Capital World Investors (5.0%)
First Call Mean Estimates: CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES
(C$/CF) 2009E: na; 2010E: na; 2011E: na
Recommendation
Canadian Natural is rated Outperform.
Changes Annual EPS Annual CFPS Quarterly CFPS

2010E $4.91 to $5.14 2010E $11.64 to $11.11 Q1/10E $2.91 to $2.69
2011E $5.26 to $6.06 2011E $12.87 to $12.74 Q2/10E $2.65 to $2.51
Q3/10E $3.13 to $2.91
Q4/10E $2.95 to $3.00
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March 5, 2010
Canadian Western Bank Research Comment
Toronto, Ontario
(CWB-TSX)

John Reucassel, CFA
(416) 359-4379
John.Reucassel@bmo.com
Assoc: John Fong, CFA, FSA

Q1/10 Results: Another Strong Quarter Target Price $27.00 52-Week Low $7.52
Canadian Western Bank (CWB)

35 1.8
Event 30 1.6
CWB reported Q1/10 EPS of $0.52. Excluding some one-time items, EPS were 25 1.4
$0.44, higher than our estimate of $0.38 and consensus of $0.39, reflecting 20 1.2
stronger spreads improvement and cost controls. 15 1.0
10 0.8
5 0.6
Impact Volume (mln)
20 20
Positive. Spreads widened sooner than we expected but loan growth remains 10 10
modest given the soft business conditions. 0 0
CWB Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
200 200
Forecasts 100 100
We increased our 2010E and 2011E cash EPS to $1.80 and $2.05 from $1.65 0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
and $1.90, respectively, reflecting higher spreads from Q1/10 and continued Last Data Point: March 3, 2010
growth in non-interest income. (FY-Oct.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E

EPS - cash $1.58 $1.47 $1.80 $2.05
P/E 12.2x 10.7x
Valuation
EPS - GAAP $1.58 $1.47 $1.80 $2.05
We are increasing our target price to $27 from $25, which represents 13.2x our P/E 12.2x 10.7x
2011 cash EPS forecast. CWB continues to operate in a part of Canada that Cash ROE 15.9% 13.2% 14.0% 14.3%
should generate above-average economic growth and this should be positive for Specific Prov. ($mm) $12 $14 $15 $13
Dividend $0.42 $0.44 $0.44 $0.44
the bank’s long-term valuation. Tier One Capital 8.9% 11.3% 11.5% 11.5%
Quarterly EPS - cash Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2008A $0.40 $0.39 $0.41 $0.38
Recommendation 2009A $0.40 $0.30 $0.38 $0.39
2010E $0.52a $0.41 $0.43 $0.44
CWB is rated Outperform. CWB reported another good quarter based on rising
spreads. We expect organic loan growth to improve later in 2010 and 2011 as Dividend $0.44 Yield 2.0%
Book Value $12.67 Price/Book 1.7x
business conditions improve. CWB continues to attract new sources of revenue Shares O/S (mm) 64.0 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $1,407
Float O/S (mm) 64.0 Float Cap ($mm) $1,407
from other lines of business (i.e., insurance, trust & management services), Wkly Vol (000s) 1,134 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $18.9
Net Debt ($mm) na Next Rep. Date 03-Jun (E)
which should provide another leg to earnings growth over the next few years.
Notes: All values in C$; EPS are fully diluted
Major Shareholders: Widely held
First Call Mean Estimates: CANADIAN WESTERN BANK (C$)
2010E: $1.62; 2011E: $1.90
Changes Annual EPS Annual EPS Quarterly EPS Target

2010E $1.65 to $1.80 2010E $1.65 to $1.80 Q2/10E $0.39 to $0.41 $25.00 to $27.00
2011E $1.90 to $2.05 2011E $1.90 to $2.05 Q3/10E $0.44 to $0.43
Q4/10E $0.45 to $0.44
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March 4, 2010
Fort Chicago Energy North American Pipelines

Carl Kirst, CFA
Partners BMO Capital Markets Corp.
713-546-9756
carl.kirst@bmo.com
(FCE.UN-TSX)
Danilo Juvane, CFA
Stock Rating: Market Perform 713-546-9741
Industry Rating: Market Perform danilo.juvane@bmo.com
4Q EPU Beat; 2010 Sees Power Pressure Securities Info

Price (3-Mar) $10.48 Target Price $11
52-Wk High/Low $11/$7 Distribution $1.00
Mkt Cap (mm) $1,462 Yield 9.5%
Event Units O/S (mm) 139.5 Float O/S (mm) 139.4
Options O/S (mm) na ADVol (25-day, 000s) 371
FCE reported 4Q09 clean EPU of $0.14 vs. our $0.10 and $0.12 consensus. CFPU
Price Performance
of $0.40 was also ahead of our $0.33, while distributable cash of $0.25 was slightly
Fort Chicago Energy (FCE.UN)
below our $0.28 expected. The earnings delta was mainly due to a $0.04 beat in Price: High,Low,Close Earnings/Share
0.9
NGLs (net of taxes). Of note was a $78.1mm charge due to a California regulatory
14 0.8
decision which rendered FCE’s Ripon and San Gabriel plants less economic.
While the upfront charge is non-cash, the impact will reduce ongoing annual cash 12 0.7
flows by $3-$4mm (the more important capacity revenues were unaffected) and 10 0.6
makes the prospects of extending PPA contracts beyond 2016/2018 expiration 8 0.5
more challenging. Other take-aways: 1) FCE slightly improved 2010 distributable 6 0.4
Volume (mln)
cash guidance to $0.85-$1.30 (we’re at $1.34 on the strength of frac spreads); 2) the 20 20
Glen Park hydro acquisition (1Q10 close) will add $5-$6mm of annualized 10 10
EBITDA in 2010, increasing thereafter as NY power prices recover; 3) Prairie 0 0

FCE.UN Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
150 150
Rose gathering pipe began flowing associated Bakken gas into Alliance/Aux Sable
last month; 4) the pipeline extension from the recently-acquired Septimus plant to 100 100
Alliance will be in service 2Q10; and 5) FCE reiterated its intent to convert to a 50 50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
corporation before year end, maintaining its $1.00 distribution turned dividend. Last Data Point: March 2, 2010
Valuation/Financial Data
Impact (FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
EPU Pro Forma $0.54 $0.61 $0.53 $0.67
Mixed. 4Q operations positive, but CA power decision will drag going forward. P/EPU 19.8x 15.6x
EPU GAAP $0.46 $0.28 $0.53 $0.67
OCF $1.68 $1.62 $1.43 $1.59
Forecasts P/OCF 7.3x 6.6x
EBITDA ($mm) $328 $274 $352 $388
We’re reducing our 2010/2011 EPU forecast to $0.53 and $0.67 on lower power EV/EBITDA 9.3x 8.4x
Rev. ($mm) $701 $649 $688 $749
sales and a larger 2H10 maintenance outage at Aux Sable than previously modeled. EV/Rev 4.7x 4.3x
Quarterly EPU 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2009A $0.10 $0.15 $0.23 $0.14
Valuation 2010E $0.03 $0.13 $0.17 $0.20
Our C$11 target is unchanged based on a blend of 4 methods yielding $10-$12. Balance Sheet Data (09/30/09)
Net Debt ($mm) $1,796 TotalDebt/EBITDA 5.2x
Total Debt ($mm) $1,828 EBITDA/IntExp 3.5x
Net Debt/Cap. na Price/Book 1.9x
Recommendation Notes: All values in C$.
Source: BMO Capital Markets estimates, Bloomberg, FactSet, Global
We maintain our MARKET PERFORM, although we do see the current 9.5% yield Insight, Reuters, and Thomson Financial.
as solid.
Changes Annual EPU Annual OCF Quarterly EPU

2010E $0.59 to $0.53 2010E $1.51 to $1.43 Q1/10E $0.10 to $0.03 Q3/10E $0.19 to $0.17
2011E $0.71 to $0.67 2011E $1.66 to $1.59 Q2/10E $0.19 to $0.13 Q4/10E $0.10 to $0.20
Please refer to pages 4 to 6 for Important Disclosures, including the Analyst's Certification.
Back to Index
March 5, 2010
Groupe Aeroplan Research Comment
Montreal, Quebec
(AER-TSX)
Stock Rating: Market Perform

Claude Proulx, CFA
(514) 286-3501
Claude.Proulx@bmo.com
Assoc: Dean Ciura

Follow-Up on Downgrade to Market Perform Target Price $11.50 52-Week Low $6.70
Groupe Aeroplan Inc. (AER)
2.5
Event 25
2.0
Aeroplan (AER) reported weaker-than-expected Q4/09 results and held a 20
1.5
conference call.
15 1.0
10
Impact 0.5
5 0.0
Mixed. Although consolidated adjusted EBITDA was below expectations, some Volume (mln)
40 40
of the reasons behind the miss are one-time in nature. Excluding $11 million of
20 20
one-time SG&A expenses, AER generated about $80 million of adjusted 0 0
EBITDA, down from $85 million last year, $13 million below our estimate and 150
AER Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
150
$2 to $4 million below consensus. Management is guiding for modest growth in 100 100
adjusted EBITDA from its existing programs, excluding the launch costs of the
50 50
Italian program. Adjusted EBITDA should also grow from the contribution of 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
recently acquired Carlson Marketing.
(FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
Adj. EPS $1.41 $0.91 $1.11 $1.22
Forecasts P/Adj. EPS 9.9x 9.1x
Based on this additional information, we are increasing our adjusted EBITDA CFPS $1.43 $0.97 $1.14 $1.12
P/CFPS 9.6x 9.9x
for 2010 and 2011 to $333 million and $361 million, respectively, up from $327
Gr. Billngs $1,421 $1,363 $1,991 $2,090
million and $348 million, which translates into adjusted EPS of $1.11 and $1.22 EV ($mm) $2,618 $2,438
for 2010 and 2011, respectively. Adj. EBITDA $319 $282 $333 $361
EV/EBITDA 7.9x 6.8x
Quarterly Adj. EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Valuation 2008A $0.35 $0.31 $0.32 $0.43
2009A $0.22 $0.26 $0.23 $0.20
Based on our new forecasts, Aeroplan looks well valued, trading at a small 2010E $0.25 $0.26 $0.29 $0.31
discount to Canada’s best media companies based on 2010E EV/EBITDA. Dividend $0.50 Yield 4.5%
Shares O/S (mm) 199.4 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $2,195
Recommendation Float O/S (mm) 199.4 Float Cap ($mm) $2,195
Wkly Vol (000s) 3,315 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $30.0
We lowered our rating to Market Perform on March 4 given the stock’s Net Debt ($mm) $551.6 Next Rep. Date May (E)
appreciation over the last eight months and continued concern toward Air Notes: All values in C$; We exclude $400 million of cash from EV for
future redemption
Canada’s financial situation in the medium-to-long term. Our revised target Major Shareholders: Widely held
First Call Mean Estimates: GROUPE AEROPLAN INC (C$) 2009E:
price of $11.50 assumes that AER will be valued at roughly 7x our 2011 $0.97; 2010E: $1.13; 2011E: $1.23
EBITDA forecast, 12 months from now.
Changes Annual EPS Annual CFPS Quarterly EPS Target

2010E $1.11 to $1.11 2010E $1.17 to $1.14 Q1/10E $0.27 to $0.25 $11.00 to $11.50
2011E $1.18 to $1.22 2011E $1.27 to $1.12 Q2/10E $0.30 to $0.26
Q3/10E $0.30 to $0.29
Q4/10E $0.34 to $0.31
Back to Index
March 5, 2010
Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Research Comment
Toronto, Ontario
(RBA-NYSE; RBA-TSX)
Stock Rating: Underperform

Bert Powell, CFA
Industry Rating: Outperform
(416) 359-5301
Bert.Powell@bmo.com
Assoc: Luigi Di Pede, CFA

Target Price Increased to $18; Target Price $18.00 52-Week Low $14.00
Underperform Rating Maintained Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers (RBA)
Price: High,Low,Close(US$) Earnings/Share(US$)
0.9
30
0.8
Event 25 0.7
20 0.6
Ritchie Bros. reported Q4/09 adjusted EPS of $0.20 versus our expectation of
15 0.5
$0.19 and the Mean estimate of $0.20. Gross Auction Proceeds (GAP) were
10 0.4
$891.1 million, up 4.4% year over year and consistent with previously
5 0.3
announced GAP results. The Auction Revenue Rate (ARR) was 10.90%, above Volume (mln)
40 40
our forecast of 10.25%. 20 20
0 0
Impact 400
RBA Relative to S&P 500
400
Neutral. 200 200
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Forecasts Last Data Point: March 3, 2010
For 2010, we forecast GAP of $3.70 billion, Auction Revenues of $389.8 (FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS $0.82 $0.88 $0.70 $0.87
million and EPS of $0.70. For 2011, we forecast GAP of $4.07 billion, Auction P/E 30.8x 24.8x
Revenues of $425.7 million and EPS of $0.87.
CFPS $1.15 $1.23 $1.14 $1.34
P/CFPS 18.9x 16.1x
Valuation Rev. ($mm) $355 $377 $390 $426
EV ($mm) $2,572 $2,392 $2,414 $2,365
Our US$18.00 target price is based on 23.8x our 2011E EPS estimate of $0.87 EBITDA ($mm) $160 $163 $159 $186
discounted back one year at 15.0%. EV/EBITDA 16.1x 14.7x 15.2x 12.7x
Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2008A $0.16 $0.37 $0.11 $0.18
Recommendation 2009A $0.18 $0.37 $0.12 $0.20
2010E $0.11 $0.34 $0.07 $0.18
We continue to believe GAP growth will continue to be below management
expectations. We expect that consignors could continue to abstain from the Book Value $5.12 Price/Book 4.2x
market, and this phenomenon will persist through 2010. Improving equipment Shares O/S (mm) 106.0 Mkt. Cap (US$mm) $2,286
Float O/S (mm) 99.5 Float Cap (US$mm) $2,146
prices may entice some consignors to auction, but we expect that there will still Wkly Vol (000s) 3,066 Wkly $ Vol (USmm) $69.1
Net Debt ($mm) $99.9 Next Rep. Date 20-May (E)
be a contingent that will sit tight in anticipation of a recovery. We have revised
Notes: *Calculations on as reported basis; All values in US$
our estimates to reflect a lower GAP growth profile and higher operating Major Shareholders: D. Ritchie (8.0%), C. Cmolik (6.5%), Mgmt and
directors (1.0%)
expenses. We have revised our target price to US$18, but continue to rate the First Call Mean Estimates: RITCHIE BROS AUCTIONEERS INC
(US$) 2009E: $0.86; 2010E: $0.93; 2011E: $1.04
stock Underperform.

2010E $0.85 to $0.70 2010E $1.17 to $1.14 Q1/10E $0.20 to $0.11 $16.00 to $18.00
2011E $0.98 to $0.87 2011E $1.32 to $1.34 Q2/10E $0.33 to $0.34
Q3/10E $0.09 to $0.07
Q4/10E $0.23 to $0.18
Back to Index
March 5, 2010
Calfrac Well Services Research Comment
Calgary, Alberta
(CFW-TSX)

Michael Mazar, CFA
(403) 515-1538
Michael.Mazar@bmo.com
Assoc: Jason A. Zhang
Q4/09 Results Above Expectations: Bright Future Price (4-Mar)

Target Price
$25.99
$30.00
52-Week High
52-Week Low
$25.99
$6.40
Justifies Above-Average Valuation Calfrac Well Services (CFW)
Price: High,Low,Close
50 50
Event 40 40
30 30
Calfrac reported Q4/09 diluted EPS of $0.02, above our estimate for a loss per
20 20
share of $0.04 and consensus for breakeven.
10 10
Impact 0
Volume (mln)
0
10 10
Slightly Positive.
5 5
0 0
Forecasts 200
CFW Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
200
We are raising our financial and operating forecasts in light of the better-than- 100 100
expected quarterly results, the continuing trend toward increased frac intensity
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
in North America and further evidence of a recovery in the North American Last Data Point: March 3, 2010
pressure pumping market. We are increasing our 2010 EPS estimates to $0.60
(FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
from $0.38 and our 2011 estimate to $1.29 from $0.77. EPS $0.47 -$0.28 $0.60 $1.29
P/E 43.5x 20.1x
Valuation CFPS
P/CFPS
$2.14 $1.42 $2.54
10.2x
$3.41
7.6x
Following the increases to our financial estimates, Calfrac’s shares now offer
Total Debt ($mm) $160 $267 $232 $129
compelling value, at 10.2x 2010E and 7.8x 2011E EBITDA. While these are ROCE (%) 4% 1% 5% 10%
LT Liab. (%) 24% 35% 30% 16%
slight premiums compared to its Oilfield Services peer group, we believe this is EV/EBITDA 6.1x 15.2x 10.2x 7.8x
warranted in light of the company’s high level of exposure to the supportive Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
secular trend toward more horizontal and directional drilling and increasing frac 2008A $0.38 -$0.41 $0.30 $0.21
2009A $0.15 -$0.39 -$0.07 $0.02
intensity in the North American shale gas plays, coupled with a resurgent crude 2010E $0.29 -$0.20 $0.20 $0.31
oil-directed market in Canada. We expect increased activity levels and Dividend $0.10 Yield 0.4%
improved pricing in 2010 to drive earnings growth and help “back-fill” the Shares O/S (mm) 42.9 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $1,115
premium valuation. Float O/S (mm) 35.6 Float Cap ($mm) $926
Wkly Vol (000s) 632 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $9.5
Net Debt ($mm) $242.3 Next Rep. Date May (E)
Recommendation Notes: All values in C$
Major Shareholders: Matco (17.0%)
We are maintaining our Outperform rating and, commensurate with our revised First Call Mean Estimates: CALFRAC WELL SERVICES LTD (C$)
2009E: -$0.16; 2010E: $0.67; 2011E: $1.49
earnings forecast, increasing our target price to $30 from $28, based on 8.8x
2011E EBITDA.

2010E $0.38 to $0.60 2010E $2.23 to $2.54 Q1/10E $0.27 to $0.29 $28.00 to $30.00
2011E $0.77 to $1.29 2011E $2.59 to $3.41 Q2/10E -$0.24 to -$0.20
Q3/10E $0.12 to $0.20
Q4/10E $0.23 to $0.31
Back to Index
March 4, 2010
Cascades Inc. Research Comment
Montreal, Quebec
(CAS-TSX)

Stephen Atkinson
(514) 286-7309
Stephen.Atkinson@bmo.com
Assoc: Joe Licursi, CMA

Q4/09 Results Above Expectations Target Price $13.50  52-Week Low $1.70
Cascades Inc. (CAS)
1.5
Event 15
1.0
On February 26, Cascades reported Q4/09 EPS from continuing operations of
10
$0.27 compared to the First Call Mean of $0.18 and our forecast of $0.16. 0.5
Adjusted EBITDA was $110 million compared to our estimate of $99 million. 5 0.0
The outperformance was in Boxboard, at $33 million, mainly due to $8 million

0 -0.5
in cost reductions and $2 million in exchange gains. Volume (mln)
20 20
10 10
Impact 0 0
CAS Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
Positive. 200 200
100 100
Forecasts 0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Our Q1/10 EPS forecast is $0.15. The run-up in wastepaper costs will squeeze Last Data Point: March 3, 2010
profits in the near term. However, the US$40/ton increase in January has held (FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
and we assume a US$30/tonne increase in April. This augurs well for the latter EPS -$0.02 $1.12 $1.07 $1.40
P/E 7.7x 5.9x
half of the year. Our linerboard price forecasts are US$545/ton in 2010 and
CFPS $1.57 $3.09 $3.18 $3.47
US$570/ton in 2011. We have assumed partial (50%) success of the US$60/ton P/CFPS 2.6x 2.4x
linerboard price increase but recognize that if current tight conditions remain, EV/EBITDA 8.6x 5.0x 4.7x 4.1x
the full increase will go through. Export markets are strong and comprise about ROE nm 9% 8% 9%
Gross Margin 8% 12% 11% 12%
16% of U.S. linerboard production. FCF -$83 $166 $145 $148
Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2008A -$0.09 -$0.11 $0.06 $0.12
Valuation 2009A $0.21 $0.28 $0.36 $0.27
2010E $0.15 $0.22 $0.32 $0.37
The stock is one of the most inexpensive we follow. Our target price of $13.50
represents 5x 2011E EV/EBITDA. Dividend $0.16 Yield 2.0%
Shares O/S (mm) 97.5 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $798
Float O/S (mm) 72.6 Float Cap ($mm) $595
Recommendation Wkly Vol (000s) 1,605 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $8.9
Net Debt ($mm) $1,533.0 Next Rep. Date April (E)
Liquidity is $540 million mostly comprised of available line of credit. We
Notes: All values in C$
expect Cascades to generate about $300 million in free cash flow over the next Major Shareholders: Bernard Lemaire (13.91%); Laurent Lemaire
(11.5%)
two years. Our rating is Outperform. First Call Mean Estimates: CASCADES INCORPORATED (C$)
2010E: $0.76; 2011E: $1.08
Changes Annual EPS Annual CFPS Quarterly EPS

2010E $1.03 to $1.07 2010E $3.25 to $3.18 Q2/10E $0.28 to $0.22
2011E $1.36 to $1.40 2011E $3.57 to $3.47 Q4/10E $0.29 to $0.37
Back to Index
March 5, 2010
Evertz Technologies Research Comment
Toronto, Ontario
(ET-TSX)

Brian Piccioni, CFA
(416) 359-5761
Member of: Top 15 Small Cap Stock Selections Brian.Piccioni@bmo.com
Assoc: Rami Nasser

Target Price Lowered to $19; Q3/10 Results Target Price $19.00 52-Week Low $10.45
Evertz Technologies Ltd. (ET)
1.4
Event 40
1.2
Fiscal Q3/10 revenues were $66.2 million (down 17% year over year and down 30
1.0
9% sequentially) versus our estimate of $79.6 million and the First Call Mean of 20 0.8
$74.1 million.
10 0.6
0 0.4
Impact Volume (mln)
4 4
Negative. 2 2
0 0
ET Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
Forecasts 400 400
We now forecast Q4/10 revenue of $65.7 million versus $80.4 million 200 200
previously. We forecast Q4/10 Operating EPS of $0.24 (GAAP $0.21) versus 0 0

2006 2007 2008 2009
$0.29 (GAAP $0.28) previously. Our 2010 revenue forecast is now $277 million Last Data Point: March 3, 2010
versus $305 million previously. Our 2010 Operating EPS forecast is now $1.01 (FY-Apr.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
(GAAP $0.84) versus $1.13 (GAAP $0.99) previously. EPS $1.20 $1.37 $1.01 $1.17
P/E 14.4x 12.5x
CFPS $1.11 $1.22 $1.20 $1.11

Valuation P/CFPS 12.2x 13.1x
Evertz is trading at a modest 13.9x trailing operating EPS and a similar multiple Rev. ($mm) $273 $316 $277 $304
Gross Margin 59% 61% 59% 61%
to our next four-quarter Operating EPS forecast. A $19 target price is 17.1x our R&D % of Sales 5% 7% 8% 8%
next four-quarter operating EPS forecast. Our prior $22 target price was based EBT Margin 46% 44% 38% 41%
on a 17.7x Operating EPS multiple. Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2008A $0.32 $0.33 $0.27 $0.28
2009A $0.30 $0.43 $0.34 $0.30
2010E $0.29a $0.27a $0.22a $0.24
Recommendation
We are maintaining our Outperform rating on Evertz and lowering our target Book Value $4.06 Price/Book 3.6x
price to $19 from $22. Shares O/S (mm) 73.2 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $1,068
Float O/S (mm) 24.8 Float Cap ($mm) $362
Net Debt ($mm) -$132.0 Next Rep. Date June (E)
Major Shareholders: Douglas Debruin (33.5%), Romolo Margarelli
(33.5%)
First Call Mean Estimates: EVERTZ TECHNOLOGIES LTD (C$)
2010E: $0.97; 2011E: $1.21

2010E $1.13 to $1.01 2010E $1.11 to $1.20 Q4/10E $0.29 to $0.24 $22.00 to $19.00
2011E $1.39 to $1.17 2011E $1.26 to $1.11
Back to Index
March 5, 2010
ShawCor Research Comment
Toronto, Ontario
(SCL.A-TSX)

Bert Powell, CFA
(416) 359-5301
Member of: Top 15 Quantitative Stock Selections Bert.Powell@bmo.com
Assoc: Luigi Di Pede, CFA
Target Price Lowered to $34; Outperform Rating Price (4-Mar) $27.29 52-Week High $31.35
Target Price $34.00 52-Week Low $15.69
Maintained; Thesis Remains Intact
ShawCor Ltd. (SCL.A)
Price: High,Low,Close
40 40
Event 35 35
ShawCor reported Q4/09 headline EPS of $0.44 versus our expectation and the 30 30
Mean estimate of $0.41. Revenues of $260.9 million were below our 25 25

20 20
expectation of $282.0 million. Backlog improved 71.1% sequentially to $410.5
15 15
million and portends to a strong H2/10. 10 10
Volume (mln)
20 20
Impact 10 10
Neutral. 0 0
SCL.A Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
150 150
Forecasts 100 100
For 2010, we forecast revenues of $1.21 billion, EBITDA of $265.5 million and 50 50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS of $2.09. For 2011, we forecast revenues of $1.42 billion, EBITDA of Last Data Point: March 3, 2010
$309.6 million and EPS of $2.45. (FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS $2.09 $1.87 $2.09 $2.45
P/E 13.1x 11.1x
Valuation
CFPS na $2.65 $2.96 $3.42
Our $34 target price represents 7.7x EV/EBITDA and 16.0x P/E, based on our P/CFPS 9.2x 8.0x
2011E forecasts discounted back one year at 15.0%. Rev. ($mm) $1,380 $1,184 $1,210 $1,419
EV ($mm) $1,881 $1,741 $1,665 $1,509
EBITDA ($mm) $266 $254 $266 $310
Recommendation EV/EBITDA 7.1x 6.9x 6.3x 4.9x
Our thesis on ShawCor remains intact. We expect continued investment in Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2008A $0.36 $0.46 $0.46 $0.81
pipeline infrastructure as energy demand grows, and depleted resources are 2009A $0.45 $0.49 $0.47 $0.46
replaced with production from more remote, challenging and diffuse locations. 2010E $0.35 $0.45 $0.64 $0.66
The backlog has improved significantly over Q3/09, but timing is expected to Dividend $0.28 Yield 1.0%
benefit the second half of 2010, which implies a slow start to 2010. Shares O/S (mm) 70.5 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $1,924
Management indicated that activity levels are healthy, and that there is the Float O/S (mm) 49.4 Float Cap ($mm) $1,348
potential for the timetable on projects that were further out in the future to be Net Debt ($mm) -$197.7 Next Rep. Date 20-May (E)
moved up. ShawCor’s balance sheet remains very strong and management Notes: All values in C$; Subordinate Voting
Major Shareholders: Mackenzie Financial (12.2%), Columbia
indicated that acquisition targets are more attractively valued than in the recent Wanger (7.0%), Bluewater Investment (5.2%)
First Call Mean Estimates: SHAWCOR LTD (C$) 2009E: $1.83;
past. We continue to like ShawCor’s prospects and are maintaining our 2010E: $2.10; 2011E: $2.39
Outperform rating, but have reduced our target price to $34 from $35.

2010E $2.23 to $2.09 2010E $3.10 to $2.96 Q1/10E $0.47 to $0.35 $35.00 to $34.00
2011E $2.54 to $2.45 2011E $3.51 to $3.42 Q2/10E $0.48 to $0.45
Q3/10E $0.63 to $0.64
Q4/10E $0.66 to $0.66
Back to Index
March 5, 2010
Total Energy Services Research Comment
Calgary, Alberta
(TOT-TSX)

Michael Mazar, CFA
(403) 515-1538
Michael.Mazar@bmo.com
Assoc: Jason A. Zhang

Does It Really Matter?: Q4/09 Results Below Target Price $10.50 52-Week Low $3.06
Expectations but Well Positioned Going Forward Total Energy Services Inc. (TOT)
1.4
20
Event 15
1.2
Total reported Q4/09 EPS of $0.07, below our estimate and consensus of $0.12. 10 1.0
5 0.8
Impact
0 0.6
Slightly Positive. While the Q4/09 financial results were below expectations, we Volume (mln)
5 5
see this as largely irrelevant given the dramatic improvement in the Canadian
energy services space in the more than two months since Q4/09 ended and the 0 0
TOT Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
fact that Total increased the size of its Rentals division by roughly 80% 200 200
subsequent to the quarter and has gained a leading position in Cardium play in 100 100
its contract drilling segment since the end of Q4/09. Therefore, the Q4/09
0 0
results do not adequately reflect the potential of the company as it is positioned 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
today.
(FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS $0.86 $0.42 $0.62 $0.89
P/E 14.2x 9.9x
Forecasts
CFPS $1.44 $0.87 $1.66 $2.11
We are increasing our 2010 and 2011 EPS estimates to $0.62 and $0.89 from P/CFPS 5.3x 4.2x
$0.34 and $0.50, respectively.
Total Debt ($mm) $13.3 $43.7 $49.9 $0.1
ROCE (%) 15% 8% 10% 14%
LT Liab. (%) 21% 18% 19% -5%
Valuation EV/EBITDA 2.8x 6.0x 5.7x 4.7x
Despite the 10% increase in Total’s shares since early February, we continue to Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2008A $0.33 $0.03 $0.21 $0.30
believe that the company’s shares are attractively valued, at 5.7x 2010E 2009A $0.29 -$0.02 $0.08 $0.07
EBITDA and 4.7x 2011E EBITDA, which are modest discounts to its small-cap 2010E $0.32 -$0.04 $0.16 $0.18
Canadian energy services peers. We expect the discount to narrow as the Dividend $0.12 Yield 1.4%
benefits of the DC Energy acquisition in the Rentals business and the Shares O/S (mm) 29.1 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $256
company’s increased exposure to the Cardium oil play begin to show up in the Float O/S (mm) 29.1 Float Cap ($mm) $256
earnings numbers. Net Debt ($mm) $35.0 Next Rep. Date May (E)
Major Shareholders: Mackenzie Financial (14.2%), Acuity (10.1%)
Recommendation First Call Mean Estimates: TOTAL ENERGY SERVICES INC (C$)
2009E: $0.44; 2010E: $0.90; 2011E: $1.17
We are maintaining our Outperform rating and increasing our target price to
$10.50 from $9.00. Our revised target is based on 5.4x 2011E EBITDA.

2010E $0.34 to $0.62 2010E $0.95 to $1.66 Q1/10E $0.21 to $0.32 $9.00 to $10.50
2011E $0.50 to $0.89 2011E $1.21 to $2.11 Q2/10E -$0.03 to -$0.04
Q3/10E $0.07 to $0.16
Q4/10E $0.09 to $0.18
Back to Index
March 5, 2010
Constellation Software Research Comment
Toronto, Ontario
(CSU-TSX)

Thanos Moschopoulos, CFA
(416) 359-5428
Thanos.Moschopoulos@bmo.com
Q4/09 Results: Better Revenues, Softer Margins Price (4-Mar)

Target Price
$41.49
$45.00
52-Week High
52-Week Low
$41.49
$24.97
Constellation Software Inc. (CSU)
Price: High,Low,Close Earnings/Share(US$)
45 3.2
Event
40
Constellation reported Q4/09 results. Revenues of $131.9 million (+34% y/y) 3.0
35
exceeded consensus of $117.9 million, as the revenue contribution from 30 2.8
Continental PTS was greater than expected. Organic growth, ex PTS, was 3% 25
2.6
y/y. Adjusted EBITDA was $22.2 million, slightly below consensus of $22.9 20
million, while adjusted EPS were $0.69, or $0.76 ex a forex loss and a one-time 15 2.4
Volume (mln)
gain, versus the consensus of $0.80. 2 2
1 1
0 0
Impact 400
CSU Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
400
Mixed. Currency had an impact on the quarter, leading to slightly weaker-than-
200 200
expected margins. However, going forward we expect much of the Canadian
0 0
dollar’s impact to be offset by an improving macro climate and potential 2006 2007 2008 2009
accretion from new acquisitions (such as Gladstone).
(FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS $2.57 $2.95 $3.44 $3.98
Forecasts P/E 11.6x 10.0x
We have raised our revenue forecasts and reduced our margin assumptions. We CFPS $2.96 $3.90 $3.39 $4.00
P/CFPS 11.7x 9.9x
have raised our FY2011 earnings estimates, while FY2010 is largely unchanged.
Rev. ($mm) $330.5 $437.9 $538.9 $555.9
EV ($mm) $524 $866 $786 $712
Valuation EBITDA ($mm) $64 $88 $96 $110
We are raising our target price to $45, reflecting 8.8x 2010E EV/EBITDA (7.0x Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2011E EV/EBITDA). 2008A $0.52 $0.57 $0.58 $0.90
2009A $0.79 $0.77 $0.69 $0.69
2010E $0.80 $0.84 $0.88 $0.93
Recommendation Dividend $0.26 Yield 0.7%
We are maintaining our Market Perform recommendation. Our recommendation Shares O/S (mm) 21.2 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $879
is largely a relative call; while we believe there is modest room for upside from Float O/S (mm) 7.2 Float Cap ($mm) $299
the stock’s current levels, in our view Constellation’s organic growth may lag Net Debt ($mm) $9.9 Next Rep. Date 03-Jun (E)
the sector in a broader macro recovery. Further, while we expect that MAJES Notes: Share price, mkt cap, float and $ volume in C$, all other in
US$
and PTS will ultimately prove to be good acquisitions, the challenge of Major Shareholders: OCP Holdings (34.4%); Birch Hill Equity
Partners (16.2%); Management and Directors (16.0%)
modeling these businesses (due to contingent losses associated with long-term First Call Mean Estimates: CONSTELLATION SOFTWARE INC
(US$) 2009E: $3.08; 2010E: $3.49; 2011E: $3.82
contracts) reduces the level of confidence we have in our 2010/11 forecasts.

2010E $3.42 to $3.44 2010E $3.60 to $3.39 Q1/10E $0.79 to $0.80 $40.00 to $45.00
2011E $3.82 to $3.98 2011E $3.89 to $4.00 Q2/10E $0.83 to $0.84
Q3/10E $0.87 to $0.88
Q4/10E $0.92 to $0.93
Back to Index
March 5, 2010
Newalta Corporation Research Comment
Calgary, Alberta
(NAL-TSX)

Gordon Tait, CFA
(403) 515-1501
Gordon.Tait@bmo.com
Q4/09 Results: Industry Outlook Improves Price (4-Mar) $8.72 52-Week High $9.99
Target Price $10.50 52-Week Low $2.27
Newalta Inc (NAL)
Newalta reported Q4/09 results. 30 30
20 20
Impact
10 10
Slightly Positive. Operating cash flow totalled $19.2 million ($0.41/share), 5%
above our $18.3 million ($0.39/share) estimate. 0 0
Volume (mln)
10 10
Forecasts 5 5
0 0
Primarily due to our outlook for higher levels of oil and gas industry activity NAL Relative to S&P/TSX Comp TRI
200 200
and higher commodity prices, we are increasing our per share cash flow from
100 100
operations (CFPS) estimates to $1.88 from $1.80 in 2010 and to $2.05 from
$1.95 in 2011. 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
Valuation (FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E

EPS $1.40 $0.07 $0.81 $0.98
Our target price of $10.50 is based on 7.1x 2010E EV/EBITDA. P/E 10.8x 8.9x
CFPS $2.29 $1.40 $1.88 $2.05

P/CFPS 4.6x 4.3x
Recommendation
CF Payout % 95% 13% 11% 10%
Newalta’s Q4/09 results came in generally within our expectations as revenue EV ($mm) $748 $568 $737 $738
and operating expenses both exceeded our forecasts by a similar amount. While EBITDA ($mm) $126 $80 $116 $124
landfill processing volumes in Ontario will likely remain soft, the company’s Quarterly Div. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
financial outlook has improved. First, crude oil and lead prices have recovered 2008A $0.56 $0.56 $0.56 $0.56
2009A $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05
from their respective lows and drilling activity in Western Canada continues to 2010E $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05
show improvement. Second, we expect continued growth in the company’s
heavy oil/SAGD onsite service. Third, cost reductions should give Newalta Book Value $11.14 Price/Book 0.8x
Shares O/S (mm) 48.5 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $423
more operating leverage if business conditions improve. Based on our total Float O/S (mm) 48.5 Float Cap ($mm) $423
return outlook, we continue to rate Newalta Market Perform. Net Debt ($mm) $303.1 Next Rep. Date May (E)
Notes: Net debt and units O/S are Q4/09
Major Shareholders: Widely held
First Call Mean Estimates: NEWALTA CORP (C$) 2009E: $0.12;
2010E: $0.60; 2011E: $0.79
Changes Annual EPS Annual CFPS Target

2010E $0.78 to $0.81 2010E $1.80 to $1.88 $9.50 to $10.50
2011E $0.93 to $0.98 2011E $1.95 to $2.05
Back to Index
March 5, 2010
Canadian Natural Research Comment
Corporate Debt – Oil & Gas Producers
Resources Ltd. Jason Parker, CFA

(416) 359-5410
jason.parker@bmo.com
Assoc: Ewa Bzorek, CA
2009 Proves to Be the Year of the Balance

Sheet Boost
Event: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) reported Q4/09 results.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.
Impact: Positive. 2, 3, 5 Yr Indicative Spreads
540
Key Points: CNQ reported Q4/09 adjusted net earnings from 480
operations of $667 million, down from $697 million in Q4/08 due 420 2 Yr
to reduced natural gas sales volumes, higher royalty and production 360
3 Yr
expenses, and increased DD&A costs, partially offset by improved 5 Yr
300
realized pricing and higher crude oil sales volumes. We view 240
CNQ’s Q4/09 and 2009 results as positive from a corporate debt
180
perspective. The company’s balance sheet continued to improve,
120
with debt leverage down to 33.2% and total balance sheet debt
60
declining by $3.4 billion to $9.7 billion. Unfortunately, the
0
company experienced operational problems at Horizon related to Jan- 99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan- 02 Jan- 03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan- 06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan- 09 Jan- 10
both equipment and ore composition, which curtailed production

levels and will linger through Q1/10. Source: BMO Capital Markets
Credit and Spread Implications

Relative Value
Near Term: Credit fundamentals should improve further in the
Sector Value: Although CNQ plans to direct free cash flows in
near term, as management said the first priority for expected 2010
2010 primarily toward debt reduction, we nonetheless remain
free cash flows is to pay down debt. However, the company does
cautious on firms involved in the oil sands, particularly those with
plan to file an NCIB for 2.5% of its shares.
projects that have yet to undergo significant ramp-ups toward full
Medium Term: Successful implementation of the additional stages capacity. In this context, we prefer the stronger current balance
of Horizon and incremental production from the company’s current sheet of EnCana.
major projects (e.g., Pelican Lake, Primrose East expansion, Olowi)
Credit Curve: At 40 basis points, we observe CNQ’s 2s-5s curve
will boost output and hence cash flows over the medium term,
is reasonably steep, suggesting there is some value in the
allowing for further balance strength.
company’s 5-year spreads.
Recommendation
We believe CNQ’s spreads are appropriately valued within the short

end of the Oil and Gas sector, somewhere between Suncor and
EnCana. Spreads should tighten closer to EnCana once Horizon
DBRS S&P Moody’s
begins to consistently function at capacity. We do not currently
recommend any Oil and Gas issuer in the middle part of the curve. BBB (High) BBB Baa2
Stable Stable Stable
Back to Index
March 5, 2010
TD Bank Research Comment
Corporate Debt – Banks
George Lazarevski, CFA

(416) 359-7488
george.lazarevski@bmo.com
Assoc: Gaurav Dhiman
Strong Q1/10 Earnings; Credit Continues to

Be a Drag
Event: TD Bank released Q1/10 results.
bps
Toronto Dominion Bank
Impact: Neutral. Subordinated Debt Indicative Spreads
500
Key Points: This was a strong quarter for TD Bank. The Canadian 450
P&C division reported record earnings, despite loan loss provisions 10 Yr

400
5 Yr
remaining elevated, and Wholesale continued to outperform. 350
2 Yr
Trading revenues remained elevated this quarter, at $549 million, 300
down only 2% from the prior quarter. We do not believe these
250
levels are sustainable and we expect trading revenues to begin to
200
level off over the next couple of quarters. The U.S. retail segment
150
came in above our expectations due to lower loan loss provisions
100
partially offset by a decline in the net interest margin. Asset quality
50
was in line with management’s expectations, with loan loss
provisions and new impaired formations remaining elevated. 0
Jan-99 Jan- 00 Jan- 01 Jan- 02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan- 05 Jan-06 Jan- 07 Jan-08 Jan- 09 Jan-10
Capital was right in line with our expectations, with a Tier 1 ratio of
11.5% and a Tangible Common Equity ratio of 9.9%. Source: BMO Capital Markets
Credit and Spread Implications Relative Value
Near Term: TD has one of the lowest Canadian dollar maturities in Sector Value: TD Bank trades the tightest among large Canadian
2010 of the large Canadian banks, which should bode well for bank alternatives and we believe it will maintain this premium due
credit spreads. to its strong domestic franchise and the expectation for new
Medium Term: We expect TD credit to continue to trade at a issuance levels to remain below historical levels.
premium compared to its peers over the medium term. Credit Curve: Given the steepness of the credit curve, we
recommend that investors extend the term in TD bank credit.
Recommendation
TD Bank remains one of our preferred credits among Canadian

large bank alternatives due to its strong domestic franchise and
robust capital position. We do not believe the earnings in the
Wholesale segment are sustainable and should begin to level off in
the near term. Credit quality continues to be a challenge,
particularly in the U.S. segment, which saw impaired loan
DBRS S&P Moody’s
formations tick up again this quarter. Loan loss provisions have
likely peaked in the Canadian segment but are likely to remain AA AA- Aaa
elevated in the U.S. segment throughout 2010. Stable Stable Negative
Back to Index
March 5, 2010
Energy - Oil & Gas Research Comment
BMO Capital Markets Energy Team
Crude Thoughts: Weekly Commodity Commentary

Weekly Inventory Reports: The U.S. Energy Information Administration Summary
(EIA) reported that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 4 million barrels
last week, much higher than the expected build of 1.4 million barrels. U.S.  Crude oil prices moved higher this week but
gasoline stocks increased by 800,000 barrels, slightly higher than the build of again stalled out just above the US$80/bbl
600,000 barrels that was expected, partly due to weaker demand. U.S. mark. Crude prices continue to be more
distillate inventories fell by 800,000 barrels, generally in line with the influenced by the U.S. dollar than petroleum
expected draw of 900,000 barrels. On the natural gas side, the EIA reported a market fundamentals while the commodity
withdrawal of 116 Bcf, below expectations for a draw of 126 Bcf. This week's market holds out hope that economic indicators
withdrawal is below the five-year average of 124 Bcf but above last year’s will start to justify the bullishness. So far, that
draw of 101 Bcf. U.S. working gas is at 1,737 Bcf, 1.2% above the five-year has failed to materialize. In the meantime,
average of 1,716 Bcf but now 3.9% below last year's level of 1,808 Bcf. product inventories remain at record levels and
Chart/Table of the week: U.S. petroleum product inventories remain at crude oil inventories are steadily building. If
record levels, despite refinery utilization rates that are below breakeven levels. there is no improvement in underlying market
Chart 7 and Table 5 show U.S. petroleum product balances. Product fundamentals soon, crude oil prices could
inventories are 8% above last year and 10% above the five-year average. come under enough downward pressure to
Anybody Want Some Products?: U.S. refinery utilization has been stuck in push them toward the bottom end of the
the low-80% range since the end of the 2009 summer driving season. Despite US$70-80 trading range.
the low run-rates, petroleum product inventories have remained at record  We are maintaining our Outperform rating for
levels due to weak end-use demand. Adding in the surplus in Europe and the U.S. Oilfield Services, Market Perform
volume reported to be in floating storage and the outlook becomes even rating for the Integrated Oils, Oil & Gas
bleaker. We think these inventories will keep a lid on any upward rally in Producers and Canadian Oilfield Services, and
crude oil prices, at least one that is being driven by underlying supply and Underperform rating for the Independent
demand fundamentals. Rising demand for end-use products will likely first be Refiners. Our top oil and gas recommendations
include Baytex, Canadian Natural, Crescent
met from inventories before refiners start buying more crude oil to
Point, Crew, Hess, Occidental, Pacific
manufacture even more petroleum products. This dynamic should keep
Rubiales, PetroBakken, Suncor and
petroleum product prices (and by extension crude oil prices) in check for the
Talisman.
next couple of quarters.
Please see pages 13 to 16 for analyst coverage.
Randy Ollenberger (403) 515-1502 Alan Laws, CFA (303) 436-1125 Gordon Tait, CFA (403) 515-1501
BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. (Canada) BMO Capital Markets Corp. (U.S.) BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. (Canada)
Jim Byrne, P.Eng., CFA (403) 515-1557 Mike Mazar, CFA (403) 515-1538 Dan McSpirit (303) 436-1117
BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. (Canada) BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. (Canada) BMO Capital Markets Corp. (U.S.)
Mark Leggett, CFA (403) 515-1508 Christopher Brown, P.Eng. (403) 515-1574
BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. (Canada) BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. (Canada)
This report was prepared in part by an analyst(s) employed by a Canadian affiliate, BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a
research analyst(s) under FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 13 to 16.
Back to Index
March 5, 2010
Energy - Oil & Gas: Research Comment
Calgary, Alberta
Refiners Jim Byrne, P.Eng., CFA

(403) 515-1557
Jim.Byrne@bmo.com
Assoc: Graham Cooke, CFA
Industry Rating: Underperform
Facing Reality; Refiners Report Disappointing Q4/09
Despite tepid optimism from the refining industry, market conditions remain
weak. Gasoline and Distillate inventories remain at or near record highs and
Summary
year-to-date refined product demand is roughly 9% below the glory days of  With surplus refining capacity and narrow
2007. With so much capacity no longer needed, refining utilization rates are quality differentials, Q4/09 was a very
at the lowest levels in over a decade, limiting the industry’s pricing power. difficult quarter for the independent refiners.
To make matters worse, crude quality differentials remain narrow relative to Reported margins averaged just $3.86/bbl,
historical levels, reducing the impact of recent capital spending projects aimed
considerably below our estimated cash
at lowering feedstock costs.
breakeven level of $5.79/bbl.
With surplus refining capacity and narrow quality differentials, Q4/09 was a  The Refining sector reported Q4/09 losses
very difficult quarter for the independent refiners. Reported margins averaged across the entire sector with a median decline
just $3.86/bbl, considerably below our estimated cash breakeven level of of 187% year over year and 283% quarter
$5.79/bbl. At these levels, we expect the industry to be capable of treading over quarter.
water for another year; however, we expect some of the weaker facilities to
 We have lowered our 2010 and 2011
either shut down or permanently reduce capacity.
estimates by roughly 34% and 8%,
The Independent Refining sector reported Q4/09 losses across the board with respectively, due to the weakness in Q4/09
a median decline of 187% year over year and 283% quarter over quarter. and our negative outlook.
Despite the decline, our expectations were not low enough, as Q4/09 earnings  With our negative outlook and the sector’s
were roughly 26% below our quarterly estimates. However, the market was inability to improve the situation, we believe a
less optimistic, as Q4/09 results were roughly 8% below consensus. We have
revaluation is unlikely to occur. As a result,
lowered our 2010 and 2011 estimates by roughly 34% and 8%, respectively,
we continue to rate the Independent Refiners
due to fourth-quarter results short of already lowered expectations and our
Underperform.
negative outlook.
With our negative outlook and the sector’s inability to improve the situation,
we believe a revaluation is unlikely to occur. As a result, we continue to rate
the Independent Refiners Underperform.
Back to Index
March 5, 2010
Financials Research Comment
Toronto, Ontario
John Reucassel, CFA/Hugh Brown, CFA

(416) 359-4379/4303
Industry Rating: Banks – Market Perform Firstname.lastname@bmo.com
Life Insurance – Outperform Assoc: John Fong, CFA, FSA
Federal Budget Good News for Canadian Financials
We believe yesterday’s Federal Budget represents some good news for Canada’s financial institutions, particularly the banks. On
numerous occasions, the government highlights how well Canada’s financial sector is performing and its objective of making
Canada a global financial sector leader. This is in stark contrast to historical experience where there has been an uneasy relationship
between the Federal Government and the large banks (the insurers have historically had an easier relationship with the Federal
Government). Included among a number of financial sector initiatives is the commitment to establish a national securities regulator
(other measures deal with negative billing, loan prepayment penalties, reduced cheque hold periods, a new code for credit and debit
cards, etc.).
From a high-level standpoint, the two biggest positives for Canada’s banks and other financial institutions is the commitment to
maintain and improve Canada’s relative strength within the G7 and to reduce corporate taxation. Relative to its other G-7 peers,
Canada’s fiscal situation is much stronger and recent economic developments support a widening gap between Canada and its G-7
peers.
In addition, contrary to our earlier fears, (see Jan 28, 2010 report “Tax Tailwind Coming to an End), the Conservative government is
following through on its commitment to reduce the federal corporate rate from 19.0% in 2009 to 15.0% in 2012. Together with a
reduced provincial corporate tax rates, the overall Canadian corporate tax rate is expected to decline from 31.6% in 2009 (and
42.3% in 2000) to close to 25.0% in 2012, making Canada the lowest tax jurisdiction in the G7 (Japan and U.S. near 39%, France
and Italy near 34%, Germany at 30% and the U.K. at 28%). Moreover, our view would be that these other jurisdictions are likely to
see higher tax rates over the next few years, which should widen the gap relative to Canada.
For Canada’s banks, the reduced tax burden should increase their bottom line by over $1 billion, or 5% by 2012, and increase
industry return on equity (ROE) by about 1%. In other countries, banks are facing an increased tax burden as payback for the recent
pain they have inflicted on taxpayers and to create a fund to cover future bailouts. The global competitive position of Canadian
banks has never been stronger.
The impact on the Canadian lifecos is more muted at a 1–2% benefit to earnings by 2012. The more muted impact reflects the much
larger non-Canadian operations at the lifecos and effective tax rates that are already lower than bank tax rates.
Overall, a relatively positive earnings season for the Canadian banks and the prospect of continued tax reduction in Canada (where
they earn most of their profits) provides a relatively strong backdrop for Canadian bank share prices relative to their global peers.
Back to Index
Market Elements
March 5, 2010
Research Comment
Quantitative/Technical Research
Mark Steele
(416) 359-4641
mark.steele@bmo.com
Assoc: Tiberiu Stoichita
 Stocks spent the session digesting the strong gains of the week.  Commodities suffered a bout of profit taking; base metals, which
 Treasuries were little changed; Greek yields suffered a bout of enjoyed the sharpest advance recently, led the declines.
profit taking.  Relative Strength Filter Highlights: The Upward Bias.
 The U.S. dollar rebounded against most crosses; commodity  53 companies are slated to report earnings today – see link
currencies ended mixed.
Stock Benchmarks Fixed Income/Currency Commodities Most Active* (Canada/U.S.)

S ym bo l Le v e l C hg( %) S ym bo l Le v e l C hg S ym bo l Le v e l C hg( %) S ym bo l Le v e l C hg( %) Vo l (m)
SP TSX Co mp  11824.97 –0.2 CDN3M 0.18 0.00 DJ A IG  133.94 –1.4 LUN 4.64 –2.2 7.6
SP TSX 60  693.37 –0.2 CDN2Y 1.47 0.00 WTI Oil  80.21 –0.8 EQN 3.59 –1.4 6.2
SPTSX Cmpl  755.19 –0.5 CDN10Y  3.42 –0.00 NM X Gas 4.58 –3.8 SU 31.63 –0.2 5.2
SPTSX SC  589.56 –0.4 US3M 0.14 0.00 A ECO Gas 4.33 –1.1 RY 57.21 0.5 4.4
SPTSX Incm  128.01 –0.9 US2Y 0.81 0.00 YRI 11.53 –5.3 4.3
Go ld  1132 –0.7
S&P 500  1122.97 0.4 VT 10.05 –1.3 4.1
US10Y  3.62 0.00 P latinum  1572 –0.4
ABX 41.45 –1.2 3.6
NA SDA Q  2292.31 0.5 US30Y  4.59 0.00 Silver 17.15 –0.3
RUS2000 H 652.47 0.6 NOVL 6.08 –1.2 48
DXY  80.57 0.74% CM X Cu  3.36 –1.7 BAC 16.37 0.2 30
Phil Bank  47.43 0.1 JP Y/$  89.28 0.92% LM E A l  1.01 0.4 C 3.40 0.9 23
S&P Glb1200  1296.45 –0.1 $ /EUR  1.358 –0.84% LM E Ni  10.12 –2.4 F 12.69 0.8 19
Nikkei 225  10362 1.1 $ /CA D  0.970 0.14% LM E Zn 1.02 –2.6 P FE 17.32 0.1 18
VIX  18.72 –0.6 $ /A UD  0.900 –0.62% CM E Lum  258 –0.4
S&P Global 1200 S&P/TSX Composite

Daily Sector Return (%) Daily Stock Return (%) Daily Sector Return (%) Daily Stock Return (%)
Global 1200 15 to 12 ANF US Hlth Care 15 to 12 SXC
Financials 12 to 10 Financials 12 to 10
Info Tech 10 to 7 FDO US, AIG US Cons Stap
10 to 7
Cons Disc SDR LN, MBI US, AKS US Utilities
7 to 5 7 to 5
Cons Stap S&P/TSX
5 to 2 5 to 2 PRE, GNA, FNX
Industrials Industrials
2 to 0 2 to 0
Energy Cons Disc
0 to –2 0 to –2
Telecom Sv Energy
–2 to –5 –2 to –5
Materials Telecom
–5 to –7 YRI, HBM, EGU, CLC-U
–5 to –7 YRI CN
Hlth Care Info Tech
AER CN AER
Utilities –7 to –10 Materials –7 to –10
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0

* Most active list includes stocks in the S&P/TSX Composite Index (Canada) and the S&P 1500 Supercomposite Index (U.S.). Source: BMO Capital
Markets, Bloomberg
This report was prepared in part by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s)
under FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 7 to 8.
Market Elements
Market Movers
ET: announced results SXC: results beat PIF-U: posted results above
RBA: results in line
after hours expectations forecasts (after close)
Hardware Software/Health Care Telecom/Utilities Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Industrials

S ym bo l Le v e l %C hg S ym bo l Le v e l %C hg S ym bo l Le v e l %C hg S ym bo l Le v e l %C hg S ym bo l Le v e l %C hg S ym bo l Le v e l %C hg
CSCO H 24.95 0.4 ABT 6.06 –1.3 B A -U 25.33 0.1 M G.A  60.50 0.8 P JC.A 9.74 0.2 B B D.B  H 6.04 0.8
A LU-N 3.28 0.9 OTC  49.60 –0.2 B CE  29.93 –0.9 LNR  17.21 –1.7 SC  44.29 0.1 CA E  8.96 V –0.4
RCM 20.55 0.1 MN 3.90 –0.3 M BT  32.07 0.3 B LD 2.40 0.8 A TD.B  20.03 1.2 RB A 22.29 V 0.3
RIM 72.16 –1.2 GIB .A  15.45 1.2 T  35.46 –0.2 DII.B  31.75 0.7 EM P .A 49.21 0.4 SNC  50.15 –1.0
SW 8.90 0.0 SXC  H 60.34 14.8 RCI.B  33.87 –0.8 GIL  25.68 1.4 L  36.61 –0.2 TIH  29.53 –0.8
EXF  6.10 3.4 CSU H 41.49 2.4 EM A  23.75 –1.0 A ER  11.01 –7.4 LIQ-U  16.34 V –3.8 A TA 6.96 –0.6
AAH  33.26 –0.7 M DA  41.13 –1.1 B RC-U  21.01 0.8 THI  31.92 –0.3 M RU.A H 41.80 2.2 FTT  17.68 –0.6
WIN  2.97 0.7 DSG  6.31 –1.4 KEY-U  25.16 –1.4 CJR.B  19.00 2.2 WN  68.25 –0.2 RUS  18.64 –0.9
CDV 3.41 0.9 CRY  3.20 3.2 FTS  28.50 0.6 SJR.B  20.47 –0.3 B CB  7.13 –0.7 WTE-U  15.85 –0.3
DELL 13.67 –0.3 CLC-U  L 12.22 V –6.6 P IF-U  17.75 –0.6 A CM .A  34.97 0.1 VT 9.92 –1.3 B IN  18.04 –0.1
ET 14.59 –1.1 M DS  8.55 –0.9 IP L-U  12.01 0.8 CRW-U 1.14 –3.4 A G-U 3.15 2.3 TFI  9.69 –2.1
FLEX  7.21 0.8 P TI 2.64 –0.8 FCE-U  10.49 0.1 YLO-U   6.10 2.3 A GT  34.95 0.1 TCL.A  12.84 –0.8
JB L  16.63 1.1 QLT  5.01 –2.3 A CO.X  50.39 –0.3 QB R.B  30.67 0.0 M FI 10.69 –1.3 SP B  13.81 0.1
CLS  11.23 –0.4 TH 4.87 –0.8 CU  45.55 0.5 TRI  36.24 –1 .8 PBH  14.60 0.1 A CE.B  6.74 –0.3
INTC  20.53 0.0 B VF  15.88 –0.8 TA  22.10 –1.3 TS.B H 8.50 V 9.4 RSI-U  4.79 –0.2 WJA  13.83 –1.0
GND  6.04 –0.2 P LB  19.79 0.2 CP A -U  17.02 1.1 CTC.A  54.10 V 1.8 SA P  30.25 0.0 TRZ.B 18.47 –2.4
VNP 5.45 0.0 COM  5.61 –1.8 JE-U  14.10 0.4 RET.A  15.73 0.1 SOY 3.38 2.4 CNR  56.69 –0.5
ZL  1.65 0.6 A NP 1.11 –13.3 NP I-U H 13.79 1.3 RON  15.22 –1.8 CB Y  50.69 0.4 CP  55.17 0.6
NG: announced US$100mm private placement ( after close )

Financials I Financials II Materials I Materials II Energy I Energy II
S ym bo l Le v e l %C hg S ym bo l Le v e l %C hg S ym bo l Le v e l %C hg S ym bo l Le v e l %C hg S ym bo l Le v e l %C hg S ym bo l Le v e l %C hg
BM O  H 59.32 0.3 CF 9.42 V 9.5 ABX 40.94 –1.2 M DI  27.65 –4.4 P D-U 8.55 –0.1 CNQ  71.96 0.3
B NS  49.12 0.6 DW  13.91 –0.8 A EM 61.83 –1.6 DM L 1.45 –1.4 ESI 14.90 –0.7 ECA  34.81 –0.9
CM  H 73.28 1.2 GM P  13.68 2.9 ELD 13.35 –2.9 CCO  27.91 –0.7 TDG  7.58 1.1 NXY 23.62 –0.6
NA  62.06 0.2 GWO  27.00 0.0 G 40.66 –1.9 UUU  2.94 –3.3 TLM  19.03 –1.3
RY  57.50 0.5 IA G  33.70 0.3 GSC 3.49 0.6 EQN 3.54 –1.4 FES 11.99 –0.7 CM T 0.87 –1.1
TD  H 69.71 2.0 M FC 19.75 2.3 IM G 15.60 –2.6 FM 80.38 –2.6 SCL.A  27.29 –1.7 CP G  38.60 –0.6
CWB  22.00 1.6 SLF 30.75 2.2 K 19.38 –1.8 HB M 13.25 –5.7 TCW  14.74 2.4 NVA  13.75 –1.8
LB  42.30 0.7 FFH 372.00 2.4 NG 6.29 –0.2 IM N  55.65 –3.8 FES 11.99 –0.7 PM G  H 29.99 1.7
P OW   30.41 0.7 KFS 1.70 –4.0 YRI 10.92 –5.3 IVN  16.34 –0.5 CFW H 25.99 V 1.9 IE  3.55 3.2
P WF H 32.17 0.9 IFC  43.10 –0.3 CG 12.82 –4.2 FNX H 14.29 3.3 M TL 15.18 –0.3 NKO 97.58 –1.4
X   28.50 –0.5 M RC  H 38.06 1.5 SSO 18.20 –1.4 S  8.10 0.0 ENB  47.20 0.4 P OU  17.91 –1.0
QC  1.30 2.4 B A M .A  24.87 0.2 SLW 15.57 –2.7 LUN 4.54 –2.2 TRP  35.84 1.2 P WT-U  21.24 –1.8
A GF.B  16.98 1.5 BPO  14.49 –3.5 PAA 23.23 –0.1 TCK.B  40.47 –1.7 HSE  26.90 0.3 ERF-U 23.79 –1.0
CIX  20.80 1.1 FCR  21.45 V 0.6 HW 10.48 –3.0 WTN  3.90 0.0 IM O  39.30 –1.4 A ET-U  21.76 –2.3
DC.A  13.25 0.2 M IM .A 13.00 0.7 CFP  8.61 0.2 TCM 14.29 –2.3 SU 31.57 –0.2 P GF-U  11.21 –1.6
HCG  41.29 1.4 HR-U  16.80 0.4 TRE H 21.40 1.7 GNA 8.12 3.3 COS-U  28.03 –2.0 B TE-U  33.62 –1.3
IGM  43.20 –0.0 REI-U  18.73 0.0 NB D  18.36 –0.5 CLM  8.87 0.7 OP C 1.89 –0.0 P EY-U  13.70 –1.5
P NP 1.84 –2.1 A P -U  19.35 –1.0 WFT H 37.02 1.6 MX  26.00 –0.0 CLL 1.41 0.0 P VE-U  8.55 0.5
OCX   26.83 1.5 EXE-U  H 10.46 0.5 UFS  59.90 0.1 A GU  69.17 z –1.2 UTS  2.46 –1.6 B NP -U  24.57 –0.4
DHF-U  16.62 –0.3 B EI-U H 40.45 1.9 CA S 8.13 –0.7 P OT 118.48 z –0.5 PBG  54.38 –0.5 P RQ 12.45 0.2
CWB: results TD: results above CF: to acquire Genuity for SSO: results out after TRP: announced $300mm BNP-U: posted results CNQ: results out; raised
above consensus expectations $286mm in cash and shares close preferred share offering after close dividend
Symbol guide: H/L: a stock has hit a new 52-wk H/L, /: a stock is within 10% of its 52-wk H/L, V/z: a stock had a H/L volume day relative to the last 52-week period, /: a stock has hit
a new 52-wk RS H/L (relative to S&P/TSX Composite Index), /: a stock has hit a new 3-mth RS H/L (relative to S&P/TSX Composite Index) Source: Bloomberg

Market Elements
Relative Strength Filter Highlights: The Upward Bias
 We have two morning peaks to see which way the wind  This morning, all major currencies are higher against the
blows for North American equity markets – the credit market U.S. dollar and yen.
and the currency market. o Friday is shaping up nicely for bulls like us.
 In FX land, the move of the Asian Dollar Index continues to
correlate with the equity market. A rising ADXY means a
rising equity market – Figure 1.
o The slope of the trend might be in question (bottom
panel), but the upward bias is not.
Figure 1: S&P 500 Index and the Asian Dollar Index (ADXY)
Source: BMO Capital Markets, Bloomberg, Thomson, Markit

Back to Index
Economic Research
March 5, 2010
Research Comment
Dr. Sherry Cooper (800) 613-0205

Robert Kavcic (416) 359-8329
Sal Guatieri (416) 359-5295
A.M. Notes
Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist

sherry.cooper@bmonb.com
416-359-4112
NORTH AMERICA – Sal Guatieri

The Canadian dollar showed little reaction to yesterday’s Federal Budget, which largely met expectations but, in our view,
generally favourable for the loonie. Though lacking in major initiatives, the Budget pledged to deliver on the measures announced
in last year’s Economic Action Plan, which, combined with provincial measures, amount to stimulus of $25 billion this year, a nice
1.6% boost to GDP (akin to last year’s lift). As well, the elimination of tariffs on imported materials and equipment used in
manufacturing should provide modest support to investment. The fiscal support should help sustain the economic recovery and
keep the Bank of Canada on track to begin tightening policy in July. As well, the Budget laid out a credible plan to virtually
eliminate the current $54 billion deficit in five years time, pledging to grow program spending by less than 2% annualized over the
next five years, which is less than inflation and far less than the austerity measures taken in the mid-1990s. The revenue projections
also rely on conservative assumptions about economic growth and interest rates, suggesting the potential for smaller-than-projected
deficits in coming years. The plan to balance the budget, even if five years out, is in stark contrast with the dire fiscal
situation in many other countries. The U.S. government, for example, doesn’t even have a plan to put its budget deficit on a
sustainable course, let alone eliminate it. On the political front, the prospect that this Budget will trigger an early election seems
remote. While the opposition Liberal Party says it won’t support the Budget, it doesn’t plan to bring down the government and send
reluctant Canadians to the polls.
For more details and insight, see Douglas Porter and Michael Gregory’s write-up on our website at:
(Link to Article)
The only major economic report on either side of the border today is arguably the most important one…The consensus expects U.S.
nonfarm payrolls to decline 68,000 in February, a moderate setback from January’s 20,000 decline but an improvement on the
average losses in previous quarters (103k Q4, 260k Q3, 478k Q2 and 753k Q1). Recent better-than-expected ISM survey results
suggest some upside risk to the report. The consensus also looks for an uptick in the unemployment rate to 9.8%, putting it three-
tenths below October’s 26-year high. Expect ongoing losses in construction (-75k in January, extending a 2½ year slide), but further
signs of recovery in professional/business services (up modestly the past four months) and manufacturing (we could see a first back-
to-back increase in nearly four years based on the five-year high ISM manufacturing jobs measure).
Sector Comment Economic Research
Two special factors will pull the February payroll figure in opposite directions: the East
Coast snowstorms and Census hiring. The first of two major blizzards early in the month
lasted a couple of days during the payroll survey week. Based on past experience, some analysts
expect the storm to lop off more than 100,000 from payrolls. However, the impact on the
reported number of losses might not be that significant because most employees were likely
paid for at least part of the survey week, and thus would have been counted as employed in the
month. If the snowstorm had a large impact, it will affect industries with a large number of
hourly-paid employees, such as retail, rather than industries where compensation is more salary
based, such as professional/business services. As well, the household survey tally of
employment should not be affected by the storm. Pulling the other way, government hiring for
the 2010 Census could add up to 50,000 new payroll jobs in February (9,000 were added in
January, and the bulk of the more than one million temporary Census jobs will arrive in April
and May). To control for this effect simply strip the federal government component out of the
headline figure, or better yet focus on the private-sector figure (-12k in January and -123k in
December).
The Fed’s recent Beige Book noted that hiring plans remain soft. As in the last two post-
recession periods, the recent recovery remains jobless. With consumer credit still contracting
(January figures out at 3:00 are likely to show an unprecedented 12th straight decline) and
households still rebuilding savings, the current recovery is probably more dependent on job and
income growth than the previous two. On a more positive note, U.S. business confidence (at
least for large firms) is on an upswing (see AM charts), which explains the recent upturn in
capital spending and should lead to renewed hiring soon.
In other news:
“Fed Presidents Say Rates Need to Be Low Early in U.S. Recovery: Chicago Fed President
Charles Evans told reporters in Chicago yesterday he needs to see signs of “highly
sustainable” growth before supporting steps toward tighter monetary policy. St. Louis Fed
President James Bullard said after a speech in St. Cloud, Minnesota that, with the economy at
an early stage of renewal, policy makers want to remain “very accommodative.”” Bloomberg
(Link to Article)
“House Adopts $15 Billion Plan to Spur Job Creation: The House on Thursday approved a
$15 billion measure intended to spur job creation by granting tax breaks to businesses that hire
workers, as Democrats, bracing for new jobless figures, tried to show that Congress was doing
something about stubborn unemployment.” New York Times (Link to Article)
“Ottawa moves to eliminate tariffs: Canada will eliminate all tariffs on imports of machinery
and other goods used in manufacturing, the government said yesterday, a move in its 2010
budget aimed at lowering the cost of doing business and helping the country boost its poor
productivity.” National Post (Link to Article)
OVERSEAS – Robert Kavcic

Overnight action… The mood is positive overseas with equities rising more than 2% in Japan
and close to 1% across Europe—the Nikkei posted its strongest week of the year as the yen
weakened amid speculation that the BoJ will undertake further easing. Meantime, a successful
10-year bond sale by Greece (which raised €5 bln), and stronger-than-expected factory data, are
giving Europe a lift, though the euro is little changed. Commodity prices are higher across the
board, with oil above $80, gold up $2.50 to $1,135 and other base metals firm.

Sector Comment Economic Research
On the data front… It’s very quiet overseas this morning. German factory orders rose a
better-than-expected 4.3% in January, lifting the annual rate to +19.6% y/y—that’s the biggest
one-year jump on record dating back to 1992. Domestic orders were strongest, rising 7.1%, led
by a 10% gain in capital goods. Meantime, U.K. producer prices rose 4.1% y/y in February,
the quickest pace since the end of 2008. Input prices rose 6.9% y/y in the month, down from
+7.7% y/y in the prior month.
China to target 8% economic growth rate… “China will target a growth rate of 8 per cent in
the economy this year, Premier Wen Jiabao said on Friday, although he warned that the
authorities would slow the number of new investment projects, and that the banking sector
contained “latent risks”.” FT. However, the Premier also said that a turnaround in the
economy should not be interpreted as a fundamental improvement because “there is insufficient
internal impetus driving economic growth”. With respect to the currency, he said the yuan
would remain “basically stable”.
Currency Market
Current Change High Low
6:46 AM
US$ Index 80.55 -0.01 80.623 80.46
C$ 1.0312 -0.0005 1.0329 1.0302
C$ (US cents) 96.98 +0.06 96.82 97.07
GBP 1.5034 +0.0002 1.5063 1.5011
EUR 1.3588 +0.0007 1.3605 1.3573
JPY 89.34 +0.32 89.41 89.00
A$ 0.9031 +0.0030 0.9033 0.8988
CNY 6.8265 +0.0001
DataWatch
Germany—Factory orders: +4.3% in January (+19.6% y/y), better than expected

U.K.—PPI (input): +0.1% in February (+6.9% y/y), softer than expected
U.K.—PPI (output): +0.3% in February (+4.1% y/y), slightly firmer than expected
AM CHARTS
 Ottawa Aims For Balance In 5 Years
 Bond-Friendly Decline in Labour Costs
 U.S. Business Confidence Fully Recovers
 U.S. Housing Market Continues to Fizzle
 Shoppers Braved The Elements to Shop
ON THE WEB: (Link to Chart)

BMO Capital Markets Disclosure Statements
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Analyst's Certification
As to each com pany covered in this report, each analyst hereby certifies that the views expressed accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about
the subject securities or issuers. Each analyst also certifies that no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to
the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Analysts who p repared this r eport are compens ated b ased upon (a mong other f actors) th e ov erall prof itability of BMO Capital Mar kets and th eir
affiliates, which includes th e overall profitability of inv estment banking services . Compensation for research is based on eff ectiveness in generating
new ideas and in communication of ideas to clients, performance of recommendations, accuracy of earnings estimates, and service to clients.
Company Specific Disclosures

For Important Disclosures on the stocks discussed in this report, please go to
http://researchglobal.bmocapitalmarkets.com/Company_Disclosure_Public.asp
Distribution of Ratings (Dec. 31, 2009)
Rating BMOCM US BMOCM US BMOCM US BMOCM BMOCM First Call

Category BMO Rating Universe* IB Clients** IB Clients*** Universe**** IB Clients***** Universe
Buy Outperform 32.2% 12.3% 38.3% 36.1% 47.9% 50%
Hold Market Perform 62.6% 10.2% 61.7% 56.9% 48.9% 43%
Sell Underperform 5.3% 0% 0% 6.9% 3.2% 7%
* Reflects rating distribution of all companies covered by BMO Capital Markets Corp. equity research analysts.
** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets Corp. has received compensation for Investment Banking services
as percentage within ratings category.
*** Reflects rating distribution of all comp anies fro m which BMO Capital Mark ets Corp. has r eceived compensation for Investment Banking
services as percentage of Investment Banking clients.
**** Reflects rating distribution of all companies covered by BMO Capital Markets equity research analysts.
***** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets has received compensation for Investment Banking services as
percentage of Investment Banking clients.
Ratings and Sector Key

We use the following ratings system definitions:
OP = Outperform - Forecast to outperform the market;
Mkt = Market Perform - Forecast to perform roughly in line with the market;
Und = Underperform - Forecast to underperform the market;
(S) = speculative investment;
NR = No rating at this time;
R = Restricted – Dissemination of research is currently restricted.
Market performance is measured b y a benchmark index such as the S&P/TSX Composite I ndex, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, as appropri ate for each
company. BM O Capital Markets eight Top 15 lis ts guide inv estors to our bes t ideas according to different objectives (Canadian large, small, growth,
value, income, quantitative; and US large, US small) have replaced the Top Pick rating.
Other Important Disclosures

For Important Disclosures on the stocks discussed in this report, please go to
http://researchglobal.bmocapitalmarkets.com/Company_Disclosure_Public.asp or write to Editorial Department, BMO Capital Markets, 3 Times
Square, New York, NY 10036 or Editorial Department, BMO Capital Markets, 1 First Canadian Place, Toronto, Ontario, M5X 1H3.
Prior BMO Capital Markets Ratings Systems

http://researchglobal.bmocapitalmarkets.com/documents/2009/prior_rating_systems.pdf
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Page 1 • March 5, 2010 (Back to Index)

BMO Capital Markets Disclosure Statements
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*Click on title to view Comments **Click here to view Calendar of Events

Large Cap Stocks

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Earnings & Conference Calls

Today's Events & Marketing

David Radclyffe & David Cotterell

Upcoming Events & Marketing

David Radclyffe & David Cotterell

BOK Financial (BOKF)  Company presentation in the Mid-Atlantic Mar. 8-9

David Radclyffe & David Cotterell

David Radclyffe & David Cotterell

Page 2  March 5, 2010 (Back to Index)

Paul Adornato & Richard Anderson

Home Capital Group (HCG)  Company presentation in Vancouver Mar. 22

Page 3  March 5, 2010 (Back to Index)

Sources: BMO Capital Markets; Thomson StreetEvents (www.streetevents.com)

Page 4  March 5, 2010 (Back to Index)

Stock Rating: Outperform

Price (4-Mar) $69.71 52-Week High $70.00

Changes Annual EPS Annual EPS Quarterly EPS Target

Stock Rating: Outperform

Q4/09 Results: Glauc and Load Price (4-Mar)

Bonavista Energy Trust (BNP.UN)

Last Data Point: March 3, 2010

Valuation (FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E

Recommendation Oil & Liq (b/d) 24,079 23,484 24,000 25,000

Changes Annual CFPS

Stock Rating: Outperform

Q4/09: Starting to Allocate the ‘Wall of Cash’ Price (4-Mar)

Canadian Natural Res. (CNQ)

Mixed. 100 100

and 649,872 boe/d in 2011. NAV $90.02 $100.24 $103.19 $114.10

Changes Annual EPS Annual CFPS Quarterly CFPS

Stock Rating: Outperform

Price (4-Mar) $22.00 52-Week High $24.00

Canadian Western Bank (CWB)

stronger spreads improvement and cost controls. 15 1.0

Forecasts 100 100

growth in non-interest income. (FY-Oct.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E

Changes Annual EPS Annual EPS Quarterly EPS Target

Fort Chicago Energy North American Pipelines

4Q EPU Beat; 2010 Sees Power Pressure Securities Info

EBITDA in 2010, increasing thereafter as NY power prices recover; 3) Prairie 0 0

Changes Annual EPU Annual OCF Quarterly EPU

Stock Rating: Market Perform

Price (4-Mar) $11.01 52-Week High $12.44

Changes Annual EPS Annual CFPS Quarterly EPS Target

Stock Rating: Underperform

Price (4-Mar) $21.57 52-Week High $26.81

Neutral. 200 200

Changes Annual EPS Annual CFPS Quarterly EPS Target

Stock Rating: Outperform

Q4/09 Results Above Expectations: Bright Future Price (4-Mar)

Changes Annual EPS Annual CFPS Quarterly EPS Target

Stock Rating: Outperform

Price (3-Mar) $8.19 52-Week High $9.80

The outperformance was in Boxboard, at $33 million, mainly due to $8 million

Changes Annual EPS Annual CFPS Quarterly EPS

Stock Rating: Outperform

Price (4-Mar) $14.59 52-Week High $17.32

previously. We forecast Q4/10 Operating EPS of $0.24 (GAAP $0.21) versus 0 0

CFPS $1.11 $1.22 $1.20 $1.11

on a 17.7x Operating EPS multiple. Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4