CLSA Forum Voices Clean Disruption Why Conventional Energy and Transport Will Be Obsolete by 2030

Stanford BUS45 - Leading Market Disruption-
CLEAN DISRUPTION
WHY CONVENTIONAL ENERGY AND
TRANSPORTATION WILL BE OBSOLETE BY
2030
PRESENTATION TO
!
!
Hong Kong, HK
"#$%&!'#(#&)#!
16 Sept 2015
!! %&'($)"vestors Forum *+,"-$.*#/0$1"$2*"3$4*"3$$
51.6$/$7*89-$*"$3:*;/:$1"-./;1:1.0$/"#$Chinas new normal$
$
"#$
Tony Seba
#$%&"#$%%Monday 14 September 2015: CLSA Limited (CLSA), Asias leading and longest'
www.tonyseba.com
ning brokerage and investment group opens today the 22nd CLSA Investors Forum, one
*+%,-.$+/)%-#0%,+-01#$%$,"2-,%1#3+/)4+#)%5"#(+.+#5+/%1#%)*+%-//+)%4-#-$+4+#)%1#06/).78%%
e 22nd CLSA Investors Forum provides more than 1400 global fund managers and 230
01#$% ,1/)+0% 5".9".-)1"#/% (."4% :;% 5"6#).1+/% -% 9,-)(".4% (".% 01/56//1"#% -#0% 0+2-)+% "#%
.<+)% 0.13+./% 1#5,601#$% (".+1$#% 9",157% -#0% 56..+#57% 3",-)1,1)7=% (1#-#51-,>% 9",1)15-,% -#0%
65)6.-,%.+(".4=%5-91)-,%9.+/+.3-)1"#>%5".9".-)+%$"3+.#-#5+%-#0%4".+8%%
-1#/)% -% 2-5<0."9% "(% $,"2-,% 6#5+.)-1#)7% -#0% *+1$*)+#+0% .+$1"#-,% 5"49,+@1)7>% ABC?%
-1.4-#%-#0%ADE%F"#-)*-#%C,"#+%/-7/%?/1-%9.+/+#)/%-%5"49,+@%915)6.+%1#%G;HI8%%
A Stroll down
Memory Lane
ith%4-.<+)%/+#)14+#)%0.131#$%21$%/J1#$/>%)*+.+%1/%-%#++0%)"%.+("56/%"#%(6#0-4+#)-,/%-/%
%,"#$%)+.4%$."J)*%0.13+./8%K#%)*+%5-/+%"(%A*1#->%5"#)1#6+0%6.2-#1L-)1"#%-#0%0+3+,"94+#)%
*+%/+.315+%/+5)".%J1,,%9."310+%-%2-/1/%"(%$."J)*%J*1,+%A*1#-%-0M6/)/%1)/%1#06/).1-,%/+5)".%)"%
realities of excess capacity in a more mature domestic economy, Slone said. %
?%9."310+/%-%0+)-1,+0%31+J%"#%A*1#-%)*."6$*%/+3+.-,%#+J%.+9".)/%)"%2+%1//6+0%)*1/%J++<8%
$%&'(#)%'"*+(+,"#-, CLSAs Head of China'!&%C).-)+$7%N.-#51/%Aheung looks at why Chinas
"#"47%*-/%J+-<+#+0%-#0%*"J%)*+%/+.315+%/+5)".>%#"J%)*+%,-.$+/)%+49,"7+.%-#0%,-.$+/)%
)%"(%)*+%+5"#"47>%J1,,%"((/+)%4-M".%.1/</%-#0%9.+3+#)%-%*-.0%,-#01#$8%%
Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba

ear since it was announced, Chinas One Belt, One Road strategy is reviewed by CLSAs
-0% "(% A*1#-% K#06/).1-,% O+/+-.5*>% ?,+@1"6/% B++>% 1#% -% M"1#)% .+9".)% J1)*% AKPKA% C+56.1)1+/8%
.01#2+34#/&3(#'"5#2&'#0,'5%.+31+J/%)*+%5"6#).1+/%-#0%/+5)"./%)*-)%J1,,%2+#+(1)%4"/)%(."4%
nas brilliant plan to export its overcapacity, e/)-2,1/*% /).-)+$15% $+"'9",1)15-,% -,,1-#5+/>%
#+//%+#+.$7%/+56.1)7%-#0%(".4%-%$1-#)%#+J%(.++').-0+%L"#+8%%
Clean Disruption - Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
um delegates will hear from more than 40 CLSA analysts on Chinas banking, energy,

5th Ave New York City, April 15, 1900
1900:
Where
is THE
?
CAR?
Photo: Fifth Ave NYC on Easter Morning 1900

Source: US National Archives
5th Ave New York City, March 23, 1913
1913:
Where is
THE
HORSE?
Photo: Easter 1913, New York. Fifth Avenue looking north.

Source: George Grantham Bain Collection
2

Technology-based
Disruption
Rodin Thinker -
Photo: Tony Seba
What is a Disruption?
A disruption happens when a new
product or service helps
!create a new market

and
! significantly weaken,
! transform, or
! destroy an existing product /

market category / industry.
! Ex: car -> horse, PC -> typewriter, iPod->Walkman
Photo: Tony Seba

Images Source: Wikipedia
3

Fast Forward to 1985
1985
Image Source: GMAuthority.com
Mainstream Disruption Forecasts

! In the mid-1980s AT&T hired
McKinsey & Co to forecast cell-phone
adoption by the year 2000
! Their (15-year) prediction:
900,000 subscribers.
! The
actual number was
109 million
! They were off by a factor
of 120x
Leading
Clean
Market
DisruptionDisruptionCopyright
Copyright
2001-2015
2001-2015
by Tony
by Tony
Seba
Seba
Motorola DynaTAC 8000X from

1984. Source: Wikimedia
Source: Economist
4

AT&T Disrupted and $$ Trillions Created

120,000,000
Actual
Subscribers
109,000,000
100,000,000
80,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
Forecast
$2.4 trillion - Market Cap Top 15 Global Internet

Public Companies (2)
!!AT&T's landline telephony market was disrupted,

!!It Missed out on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity!
Subscriber Data Source: CTIAThe Wireless Association
Internet Companies: Internet Report 2015 - Mary Meeker
It's usually the 'Experts' and 'Insiders' who
dismiss disruptive opportunities

"The Internet will catastrophically collapse in
1996."
-Robert Metcalfe, 1995.
"There is no reason anyone would want a
computer in their home."
- Ken Olson, CEO, Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
"I do not believe the introduction of motor-cars

will ever affect the riding of horses."
- Scott-Montague, United Kingdom MP, 1903
5

Why do smart people at

smart organizations
Consistently Fail to
Anticipate or Lead Market
Disruptions?
Rodin Thinker -
Photo: Tony Seba
4 Reasons Why Organizations Consistently

Fail to Anticipate or Lead Market Disruption
1.! Disruption Models

2.! Exponential
Technologies
3.! Business Model
Innovation
4.! Product Innovation
Leading Market Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
6

Exponential
Technologies
If the rate of change on the outside is greater than the rate
of change on the inside, the end is near.
- Jack Welch
Computing: Moores Law (1971-2011)
Logarithmic Scale
1 billion X
! # of transistors doubles (roughly) every two years.

! Annual Improvement Rate ~ 41.4%
! Exponential Growth in # of Transistors
Source: Wikipedia
7

!!Technologies improving
at exponential rates.
!! Data Storage Kryders Law
!! Hard Disk $ cost per bit down
50%
every 18 months.
!! Digital Imaging Hendy's Law

! Pixels per $ - 59%
/ year
Logarithmic Scale
PC / Internet / Mobile Phone industries:

Covergence of Exponential Technologies
!! Network Capacity: Butters Law of

Photonics
!! The $ cost of transmitting a bit decreases
by
50% every 9 months.

Kryders Law: Storage
Source: Wikipedia
2015: Key Exponential Technologies

1.! Sensors / Internet of Things
2.! 3D Printing
3.! Machine Learning / Artificial Intelligence
4.! Robotics
5.! 3D Visualization
6.! Solar PV
7.! Energy Storage
8.! Mobile Internet & Cloud
9.! Big Data / Open Data
10.!Unmanned Aerial Vehicles / Nano Satellites
11.! eMoney / eFinance
8

Clean Disruption of Energy & Transportation
1.!Solar
2.!Energy Storage
3.!Electric Vehicles
4.!Self-Driving Cars
1. THE SOLAR
DISRUPTION
If you evaluated rooftop solar a year ago, or even three
months ago, you are way out of date.
- David Crane, CEO, NRG Energy
9

Solar PV Costs: DOWN 200X

Learning Curve: 22%
$100/W
50/W
200x
Graph Source: BNEF Economics of PV Power
Market: Solar PV Installed Capacity: UP 132X

200,000
180,000
Global Installed Solar PV (MW)
185,356
160,000
141,156
140,000
120,000
102,156
100,000
80,000
71,061
60,000
40,670
40,000
20,000
6,946 9,521
1,400 1,765 2,235 2,820 3,952 5,364
16,229
23,605
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
! Solar PV Market CAGR 2000-2014 ~42%

! Solar PV installed Capacity 2000-2014 Growth ~ 132X
Data Source: EPIA, PV Magazine
10

Energy = 100% Solar by 2030 ?

Solar Installed Base (GW)
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
! If Solar PV continues to grow at ~42% CAGR
! 100% of all energy (not just electricity) in the world would be

solar by 2030
Source: Clean Disruption
Can Solar Continue

Growing at this Rate?
Rodin Thinker -
Photo: Tony Seba
11

!"#$%&'"!(&(%)*+!&
,!&&
'"*,)*(-"*$#&)*)%./&
Since 1970 Prices for conventional resourcebased energy sources are up 6X 16X
Oil
Nat Gas
Nuclear
Coal
Sources: DOE, Clean Disruption
12

Solar Cost Improvement vs Conventional Energy

Solar PV Cost
Improvement
relative to:
Times
improvement
(1970-2015)
Petroleum
3,165x
Nuclear
2,600x
Natural Gas
2,965x
Coal
1,164x
Oil at $50/bbl
! Since 1970 Solar PV has improved cost by thousands of times

relative to most conventional forms of energy.
!
Note: unsubsidized cost of solar PV
Source: "Clean Disruption"
01!-*)!!&2&3-*$*'-$#&
4"+)#&-**",$(-"*&
13

Zero Money Down Solar 3rd Party Finance

! ~80% of California Residential Solar PV is third-party
owned & financed (March 2012) (1)
! This includes PPA and Leasing.
! CA 3rd-party finance = substantially
all growth in
residential solar
Cash
3rd-party
Colorado Excel Energy
California Solar Initiative

Images Source: GTM Research
(1) PV Solar Report
3:;B;?:B5&2&0F@:;8@@&46E85&-;;6GBD6;@&
!"#$#%"$&'(')*+"#,++'-./,&'"##.0$1.#+'$2,&56789:;<&=>8&?6@=&
6A&?BC:=B5'$#/'B??8589BD;<&@65B9&BE6CD6;&
34!'(>:9EHIB9=J&3:;B;?8&
! 556'7'8,$+,'
94!':.&$2'8.$#+'
;4!'/:85E'6&
<4!'56=>'?'52.@,2AB'6++,++,/'=&,$#'>#,2CB'
D4!'E.#/?556'FB)2"/'
G4!'=2.H/!*#/"#C'
I4!J85'?'J$+A,2'8"-"A,/'5$2A#,2+K"@'L'
M4!'N>OP'Q'N,$&'>+A$A,'O#0,+A-,#A'P2*+A'L'
'6CJ9:<>=&KLMMNHLMOP&QJ&(6;J&!8QB&&&
14

Grid Parity in 80% Global Markets by 2017
! Solar at/below grid parity in 100's of markets globally TODAY.

! Deutsche Bank: Solar Below Grid Parity in
! 47 states in the US by 2016
! Up to 80% of Global markets by 2017

Source: Deutsche Bank
Solar PV costs to drop another 50%+ by 2020

$100/W
Total Res. System
Cost = $l.12/W
25/W
! Solar PV costs down 400X from 1970-2020
! Citi: installed cost of Residential solar ~$1.12/W by 2020
! Installed cost is already <$1.4/W in Australia. (2)
1) RenewEconomy (2) SolarChoice.net.au
Graph Source: Citibank and GTM
15

By 2020: Solar Cost vs Conventional Energy

Solar PV Cost
Improvement
relative to:
Times
Times
improvement improvement
(1970-2020)
(1970-2015)
Petroleum
Nuclear
3,165x
2,600x
6,329x
5,200x
Natural Gas
2,965x
5,911x
Coal
1,164x
2,329x
! Solar PV will keep improving unit cost by thousands of times

relative to conventional forms of energy.
Assumption: conventional energy prices in 2020 = 2014 Oil @$50/bbl
Solar Growth Rate

may Accelerate!
(Tech S-Curve)
Rodin Thinker -
Photo: Tony Seba
16

most innovations go through a process of discovery

or development of concept, laboratory demonstration,
Stanford BUS45 - Leading
Market Disruptionfield trials,
and early commercial trials, before they
are generally introduced to the market. Once you
Percentage
Technology Adoption S-Curve (Color TV % US)

100
Color TV
80
Installed base
Consumer Adoptions 2008
60
40
Price
20
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Data Source: eBrain Market Research
2000
Time
Source: Technology
Inc.
! Solar PV is a technology. Tech adoption
is not Futures,
linear
but follows an S-Curve.
Figure 4 US Color Television Adoption
Graph Source: Technology Futures, Inc
4)
we felt that lack of

problem in the 1990
1950s for color TV.
Perhaps we should
the problems likely
turned out, in 1993,
vidual proposals for
to form a Grand A
the new system beg
second HDTV stud
standards approval
in 1997, and 1 % pe
and a half later than
before final approva
vened, demanding p
scanning. The resul
promise was reache
of scanning, the FC
December 24, 1996
Lawrence K. Vanston, Curt Rogers, and Ray L. Hodges, Advanced Video Services: Analysis and
Providers, Technology Futures, Inc., 1995.
182
Solar GOD Parity

Point of No Return
Image: RedOrbit.com
17

God Parity by 2020 - $ Rooftop Solar < $ Transmission

Transmission
Costs /kWh
4-5
4-5/kWh
/kWh
! God Parity: cost of rooftop solar lower than

cost of transmission!
! Centralized Generation can't compete
! Obsolete: Nuclear, Natural Gas, and Coal
Solar Growth Rate

may Accelerate even
more!
(S-Curve)
Rodin Thinker -
Photo: Tony Seba
18

But Not all power generation

will be rooftop, right?
What about
Utility Scale?
Rodin Thinker -
Photo: Tony Seba
1D5:=J&!?B58&!65B9&:;&1!$&]Z&PS2TU>&&&
! LMOP&1!$&II$&RP&S2TU>&VW2H&&OS2TU>X&
OY! *,&);89<J&!65B9&II$&HZ&[YN\&S2TU>&RX*&'Y3DS&VLX&
VOX&
! !BFE:&$9BQ:B&II$&^Y_&2TU>&VF;@FQX&R6*C'Y3DS'V[X&
'6CJ9:<>=&KLMMNHLMOP&QJ&(6;J&!8QB&&&
R3S':.*2%,T'UPJ'N,+,$2%K'R9S'5V'J$C$W"#,'R;S'=&,$#P,%K#"%$'
19

Energy = 100% Solar by 2030?

Solar Installed Base (GW)
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
! If Solar PV continues to grow at ~42% CAGR

! 100% of all energy in the world will be solar by 2030
2. ENERGY
STORAGE
While there are many kinds of stories, there's only
one plot: things are not as they seem.
- Jim Thompson, film-maker
20

Li-on Battery costs dropping exponentially
Laptop Li-on battery costs

dropped ~14% per year
over 15 years. (1)
Investments in battery tech
increasing dramatically:
! Now 3 multi-trillion $
industries investing:
1.!IT/Electronics
2.!Automotive &
3.!Energy
Photo: Wirkipedia
Photo: Telegraph.uk
! Since 2010, battery costs have dropped

at ~16%/year -> ACCELERATING
(1) Clean Disruption
Cost of Li-On Battery Storage ($/kWh)
Projected Cost of Li-On Battery $/kWh

$500
$450
$400
$350
$200/kWh
$100/kWh
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba
$-
Assumptions: 16%/year
cost improvement
'58B;&+:@9FCD6;H&'6CJ9:<>=&K&LMMOHLMOP&QJ&(6;J&!8QB&
21

Tesla's Battery GigaFactory
! $5 billion investment (6,500 jobs)

!
Battery pack output: 50 GWh/year -> 500,000
year
Double world battery production
Tesla Gigafactory!
!
Gigafactory Projected Figures
cars/
New Local
Renewables !
Solar and Wind!
! Reduce battery pack costs by 30+%
2020 Tesla Vehicle Volume
2020 Gigafactory Cell Output
2020 Gigafactory Pack Output

Space Requirement
Total Land Area (acres)
Employees
500,000/yr
35 GWh/yr!
50 GWh/yr!
Up to 10M ft2!
w/ 1-2 levels!
500-1000
6,500
Rendering!
Source: Tesla
Tesla's Battery Ahead of the Curve
!
!
!
Tesla PowerWall Residential Battery:

! $350/kWh (7kWh or 10kWh)
Tesla Microgrid/Commercial Battery:
! $250/kWh for commercial/microgrid (100kWh)
Market reaction:
Tesla received
$800+
million in
orders /
reservations
first week!
Sources: Tesla, Bloomberg
Image: Tesla,
22

Battery Megafactories are coming!
! BYD plans to add 6 GWh every year.

! Could ramp up to 34 GWh by 2020 matching Tesla's 35 GWh
(1)
! Foxconn and LG
Chem could add
combined 22 GWh
(2)
Plus Samsung SDI, Apple,

etc.
! Tech Cost Curve

could accelerate!
Picture 2015 by Tony Seba
(1) Reuters (2) Benchmark Minerals
)*)%./&!("%$.)&
01!-*)!!&4"+)#&
-**",$(-"*&
23

Business Model Innovation:

Storage As A Service
Image: Stem
! Stem and GreenCharge Networks offering storage-asservice to reduce DEMAND CHARGES for businesses
! Zero-money down, 10 years
! Lower utility bills by 10-50% (1)
! Similar business model that made solar skyrocket
(1) Source: Bloomberg
!=69B<8&+:@9FCD6;&]&%8@:E8;DB5&B;E&'6``89?:B5&
! 60,2$C,'6-,2"%$#'%.#+*-,+'Z[;'\]K(-.#AK'?^'_';[\]K(/$B'
! EB'9[9['"A'H"&&'%.+A'a[bYN2`6;=>'RaOYL2EBJS'`.2'$'
`*&&'/$B'.`',&,%A2"%"AB'+A.2$C,&
Monthly Cost of
Residential Storage
Target Year ->
Purchase Cost of Battery Storage

System ($/kWh) ->
SaaS Services
$600
2014
$500
$300
2020
2024
2028
$200
$100
$50
$1.5
$0.8
$0.4
Hours kWh Storage: Monthly Cost
Demand Response
1.25
$4.6
$3.8
Avoid peak, buy low & shift usage

Store all solar self-generation
$2.3
$18.4
$15.3
$9.2
$6.1
$3.1
$1.5
10
$36.8
$30.7
$18.4
$12.3
$6.1
$3.1
Self-sufficiency
16
20
$73.6
$61.3
$36.8
$24.5
$12.3
$6.1
Off-grid
24
30
$110.4
$92.0
$55.2 $ 36.8
$18.4
$9.2
Assumptions: 4% cost of capital (mortgage) over 20 years

:.*2%,T'=&,$#'a"+2*@1.#'
24

3. The Electric Vehicle

Disruption
Photo Tesla Motors
Nov 16, 2012

Motor Trend
2013 Car of the Year: Tesla Model S
It drives like a sports car, eager and agile and instantly

responsive. But it's also as smoothly effortless as a Rolls-Royce and
carry almost as much stuff as a Chevy Equinox. Oh, and it'll sashay up
to the valet at a luxury hotel like a supermodel working a
Paris catwalk.
Consumer Reports:
Best Car EVER!
(1)
Best-selling high-end
large luxury car in
America!
Image -Tony Seba
(2)
Sources: Motor Trends, (1) Consumer Reports, (2) Extremetech.com
25

But who can afford an

Electric Vehicle?
Photo Tony Seba
Is the Electric
Vehicle
Disruptive?
(You always need to ask)
Photo by Tony Seba
26

1. Electric Motor 5X more Energy Efficient

Internal Combustion
Engine
40
70
20
Energy Efficiency
80
10
90
0
50
60
30
17%-21%
40
50
100
60
30
70
20
80
10
90
100
Electric Motor
90%-95%
Energy Efficiency
Sources: ICE DOE, EM Wikipedia

Images Source: ICE - Tony Seba , Electric: BradMerritt.com
2. EVs are 10X cheaper to charge / fuel

! It costs $15,000 to fill up
a (gas) Jeep Liberty over five
years (Consumer Reports).
! An Electric Jeep Liberty would
cost
!
$1,565 in electricity.
Improvements in
power electronics
will increase 10X.
Assumptions:
!
12,000 miles/year
!
Tesla Roadster: 4.6 miles per kWh.
!
Ave retail electricity in the U.S.: 12 /kWh
!
5 year-cost = (60,000 miles * 0.12 $/kWh) / 4.6 miles/kWh = $1,565.
Image: Jeep.com
Source: Tesla
Sources: Consumer Reports, DOE, Clean Disruption
27

3. Maintenance - Gasoline Car:

2,000+ moving parts
(1)
Photo Todd McLellan

(1)! Baron Funds
3. EVs: 100X fewer Moving Parts

Electric Vehicle (EV)
ICE (Gas) vehicle
2,000+ moving parts
(1)
18 moving parts
Transmission, driveshaft, clutch, valves,

differentials, pistons, gears, carburetors,
crankshafts...
(1)
Photos: Tony Seba
EVs 10X-100X cheaper to maintain!
! Tesla: Infinite Mile Warranty!

(2)
(1)! Baron Funds (2) Tesla blog
28

4 EVs FAR MORE powerful than ICE
EV Torque
ICE Torque
Teslas EV SUV will have the performance

of a Porsche 911 Carrera! - Elon Musk, Tesla
Image Source: BRD Motorcycles
EVs Shift the Price/Performance equation ->

Disrupt the BASIS of COMPETITION
High $$$
Porsche 911 Carrera
Price
Medium $$
Buick Enclave
Tesla Model X
Low $
High
Performance
EVs: Porsche performance for Buick prices!
Low
Car Images Source:WikiMedia
29

Ok, so the EV is
DISRUPTIVE.
How long will the transition
take?
Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by

Tony Seba
Disruption from Above:

Cost of EV with 200-mile (320 Km) range
$80,000
Cost of Electric Vehicle
$70,000
$60,000
gas "Affordable
SUV": $35-$40K
Ave gas Car
cost in US: $31K
$50,000
$40,000
Ave cost of Low-end

gas car in US: $22K
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$-
Clean Disruption- Copyright

2001-2015 by Tony Seba
Assumptions: 4 miles/kWh, 50kWh batteries,16% yearly improvement in battery costs,

Source:Program
Clean Disruption
Source: US DOE Vehicle Technologies
EV Costs = 3X cost of battery
30

ComputerWorld
Sept 4, 2014
Foxconn to make EV for $15,000

Foxconn, the maker of the Apple iPhone
to invest $811m to develop Electric Cars."
"Foxconn CEO
Terry Gou said they
are targeting EVs
priced at less than
$15,000. " (1)

Image Copyright 2015 by Tony Seba
4 - The Autonomous
Vehicle Disruption
Photo Wikipedia
31

Financial Times
May 5, 2015
Nevada approves Autonomous Trucks
Daimler Benz autonomous self-driving truck approved in Nevada
Reuters
Video: WSJ
June 3, 2014
Nissan autonomous Car by 2016
32

Oct 2, 2014
TheVerge
Tesla capable of Self-Driving

90% of the time by 2015
90% of your miles

to be autonomous.
For sure on
highways." (Elon Musk)
Photo: Tony Seba
"Legal, regulatory issues must be

overcome." (1)
(1) UK Daily Mail
High End: Semi-Autonomous Capabilities
"! High-end cars already have autonomous

('Drivers Assist') tech
Graphic Source: Audi
33

What about the

COST of
Autonomous Vehicles?
What an Autonomous Car Sees
""! Google Car: 3D Machine Vision uses LIDAR

GraphicPopular Science
34

Exponential Technologies:
Machine Vision LIDAR Sensors
"! In 2012 Google announced that the cost of technology in its
self-driving car was ~$150k.
"! LIDAR Sensor (for Machine Vision) was
$70k in 2012
! By the end of
2013, the next-gen
LIDAR was: $10k
! By Oct 2014, a SV
startup company
announced LIDAR
for $1k
Graphic Source Wikipedia
Mark VIII (M8) & Solid State (S3) LiDARs
LIDAR: From $70,000 to $1,000 to $90

Designs focus simultaneously on cost,
performance, size and reliability
Gen 1: mechanical LiDAR (M8)
Gen 2 & 3: solid state LiDAR (S3)
Disruptive Pricing:
Gen 1: <$1,000
Gen 2: <$250
Gen 3: <$100
Clean Disruption of Energy &Transportation
One beam is pointed skyward to prevent

blind spots in the event of pitch or roll
Disruptive LiDAR Solutions for Autonomous Vehicles,

3D Mapping, Navigation and Location Based Services
Louay Eldada
CEO, Co-Founder
Quanergy Systems, Inc.
$1,000
!! 2015 LIDAR: ~
8 Patents
Pending
!! Gen 2 (solid state):
$250
June 9, 2015
2015 Quanergy Systems, Inc.
15 Patent Apps in prep

covering Gen 1, 2 & 3
!! Gen 3 (postage stamp):

2015 Quanergy Systems, Inc.
$90
Source Quanergy
35

Autonomous Vehicles = Computers on Wheels
!!What is the Cost Curve of Computing Power?

!! to process sensor input?
Image Copyright 2015 by Tony Seba
Year 2000: World's 1st 1-TeraFlops Computer

ASCI RED Sandia National Labs
"! Space = 1,600 sq ft (150 m2)

"! Power Consumption = 850 kW
"! Cost = $46
Image: ExtremeTech
million
Source Wikipedia
36

Exponential Technologies:
GPU: NVIDIA Drive PX
!! Dual Tegra X1 GPU Processor
!! 2.3 TeraFlops
!! Power Consumption =
15 W
#!56,666X improvement
#! Cost =
$59
#!~1 million X improvement
#! Built for Self-Driving Cars

! Surround Computer Vision (CV) with Advanced Rendering
! Deep Learning S/W, and
! Over-the-air updates
'58B;&+:@9FCD6;H&'6CJ9:<>=&KLMO^&QJ&(6;J&!8QB&
Image & Data Source: NVIDIA
Ok, cost is not an

issue...but
Is the Market Ready
for Self-Driving Cars?
Rodin Thinker -
Photo: Tony Seba
37

Are consumer ready for Autonomous cars?

2.8b people
Clean Disruption- Copyright 2014 by Tony Seba
Source: Cisco Systems
Cool! I can
and also
while NOT driving!
But what's the
disruptive
impact?
Rodin Thinker -
Photo: Tony Seba
38

01!-*)!!&4"+)#&
-**",$(-"*&
My Smartphone On-Demand
Transportation
Plan & schedule ALL transportation
needs with Apps
1.! Buses: NextBus
2.! Trains: CaltrainMe, iBART
3.!Car-Sharing: Zipcar
4.!Ride-Sharing: Uber, Lyft
5.! Parking: PayByPhone
6.! EV Charging: ChargePoint
Photos:
Tony
Seba
Image 2015
by Tony
Seba
39

CAR- Sharing
Zipcar:
!! On-demand individual transportation
!! By the hour, by the day
!! 760k members and $270m in revenues (2012)
!!Share-to-own ratio: 15
!! Each shared zipcar replaces

15 cars on the road.
Images: Tony Seba
On-Demand Mobility:
changing the concept of
"Car Ownership"
!!while reducing the need for
new cars
RIDE- Sharing
Companies disrupting private and public
transportation.
"! =.##,%1#C'*+,2+'H"AK'/2"0,2+'
"! >bT'c),2d'8Be'
"! Uber (started 2009):

"! May '15 - 311 cities in 58 countries (1)
"! Est. 2015 Bookings = $10 billion(2)

"! 1 million drivers (global) (3)
San Francisco Figures
!! # Uber Drivers (2015): 22,000
!! # of Taxicabs (2012): 1,825 (4)
!!Carpooling ~= half of Uber Rides

Image:
Seba Insider
(1) (2) Tony
(3) Business
(4) Wikipedia
40

Cars: Hugely Inefficient Use of Assets
Cars are our 2nd largest

Capital Expense.
! Ave. car costs = $31k

!
Plus OpEx: gasoline,

insurance, maintenance, etc
cars are
parked 96% of
But
the time!
(1)
! 4% Asset Utilization is a
disruption waiting to happen!
Photo: Tony Seba
(1) Donald Shoup
!)#3H+%-,-*.&W&'$%!c$%-*.d&
'"*,)%.)*')&"3&
()'c*"#"./&e&01!-*)!!&
4"+)#&-**",$(-"*&
41

Feb 2, 2015
The Verge
UBER announced Self-Driving Car

Project
Uber announced plans with Carnegie Mellon
University to create the Uber Advanced Technologies
Center: R&D of autonomous
vehicles."
"When there's no [driver], the cost of

taking an Uber anywhere becomes
cheaper than owning a vehicle...and
car ownership
goes away." said Uber's
then
CEO
Image: Tony Seba
Helsinki, Finland: Clean Disruption by 2025

"! Helsinki announced intention to build 'mobility on
demand' platform based on self-driving cars by 2025.
"! Mobile platform / app
would knit together:
"! Driverless cars,
"! Little buses,
"! Shared bikes and
"! Ferries,
"! into a seemless "mobility
on demand" service.
"! Objective: make
car
ownership (in the
city) obsolete
Image: Fool.com
(1) Guardian
42

The Self-Driving Car Disruption
1.!Car-as-a-service (CarSharing +
Self-Driving Vehicles) will make
Individual Car Ownership Obsolete
2.! New Car Market to shrink by ~80%.
! Disruption of Auto industry
! Disruption of Car insurance industry
3.!~80% parking space not needed
! Citiscape to be re-designed
!144$%/&
43

Summary: On the Cusp of a major

Disruption in Energy and Transportation
2015:
we
are
HERE
Source: US National Archives
2015 Clean Disruption of Energy & Transportation

!! The technologies, skills, organizations, and culture of the
industrial revolution have run out of steam
!! They are being disrupted by the technologies, skills, organizations,
and culture of the "Silicon Valley" technology revolution
1.!
2.!
3.!
4.!
Solar
Energy Storage
Electric Vehicles
Self-Driving Vehicles
!! Generation, Storage, and Intelligence pushed to the edges

!! Distributed, Mobile, grid-independent
!! Bits + photons are replacing atoms (coal, nukes, gas, oil)

!! Electric + ICT replacing combustion
Image: Tony Seba
44

Clean Disruption - By 2030
1.! ALL Energy will be Solar (+Wind)

!
!
Disruption of Conventional Electric Utilities

Obsolete: Nukes, Coal, Gas, Diesel
2.! ALL NEW Vehicles will be Electric

!
!
Disruption of Conventional Car Industry

Obsolete: ICE Vehicles, Petroleum
Disruption of Conventional Car Industry, Car

Insurance, Parking
3.! ALL NEW Vehicles will be driverless
Clean Disruption of Energy & Transportation
This disruption is
not in the future.
It is NOW!
45

(c$*f!g&
'
!
!
"#$%&!'#(#&)#!
www.tonyseba.com
($)"vestors Forum *+,"-$.*#/0$1"$2*"3$4*"3$$

9-$*"$3:*;/:$1"-./;1:1.0$/"#$Chinas new normal$
$
4 September 2015: CLSA Limited (CLSA), Asias leading and longest'

nvestment group opens today the 22nd CLSA Investors Forum, one
$%$,"2-,%1#3+/)4+#)%5"#(+.+#5+/%1#%)*+%-//+)%4-#-$+4+#)%1#06/).78%%
CLEAN DISRUPTION
WHY CONVENTIONAL ENERGY AND

s Forum provides more than
1400 global fund managers
and 230
TRANSPORTATION
WILL
BE OBSOLETE BY
"#/% (."4% :;% 5"6#).1+/% -% 9,-)(".4% (".% 01/56//1"#% -#0% 0+2-)+% "#%
#$% (".+1$#% 9",157% -#0% 56..+#57% 3",-)1,1)7=% (1#-#51-,>%P9",1)15-,%
-#0% TO
RESENTATION
,%9.+/+.3-)1"#>%5".9".-)+%$"3+.#-#5+%-#0%4".+8%%
2030
(% $,"2-,% 6#5+.)-1#)7% -#0% *+1$*)+#+0% .+$1"#-,% 5"49,+@1)7>% ABC?%

)*-#%C,"#+%/-7/%?/1-%9.+/+#)/%-%5"49,+@%915)6.+%1#%G;HI8%%
Hong Kong, HK
!
!
"#$%&!'#(#&)#!
16 Sept 2015
)%0.131#$%21$%/J1#$/>%)*+.+%1/%-%#++0%)"%.+("56/%"#%(6#0-4+#)-,/%-/%
!!"#$%&'($)"vestors Forum *+,"-$.*#/0$1"$2*"3$4*"3$$
13+./8%K#%)*+%5-/+%"(%A*1#->%5"#)1#6+0%6.2-#1L-)1"#%-#0%0+3+,"94+#)%
51.6$/$7*89-$*"$3:*;/:$1"-./;1:1.0$/"#$Chinas new normal$
%9."310+%-%2-/1/%"(%$."J)*%J*1,+%A*1#-%-0M6/)/%1)/%1#06/).1-,%/+5)".%)"%
$
pacity in a more mature domestic economy, Slone said. %
#$%&"#$%%Monday 14 September 2015: CLSA Limited (CLSA), Asias leading and longest'
Tony Seba
www.tonyseba.com
ning brokerage and investment group opens today the 22nd CLSA Investors Forum, one
0%31+J%"#%A*1#-%)*."6$*%/+3+.-,%#+J%.+9".)/%)"%2+%1//6+0%)*1/%J++<8%
*+%,-.$+/)%-#0%,+-01#$%$,"2-,%1#3+/)4+#)%5"#(+.+#5+/%1#%)*+%-//+)%4-#-$+4+#)%1#06/).78%%
SAs Head of China'!&%C).-)+$7%N.-#51/%Aheung looks at why Chinas
e %-#0%*"J%)*+%/+.315+%/+5)".>%#"J%)*+%,-.$+/)%+49,"7+.%-#0%,-.$+/)%
22nd CLSA Investors Forum provides more than 1400 global fund managers and 230
Clean Disruption
- Copyright
Tony Seba
01#$%
,1/)+0% 5".9".-)1"#/%
(."4% :;%
5"6#).1+/%
-% 2001-2015
9,-)(".4% (".%by
01/56//1"#%
-#0% 0+2-)+% "#%
,%"((/+)%4-M".%.1/</%-#0%9.+3+#)%-%*-.0%,-#01#$8%%
.<+)% 0.13+./% 1#5,601#$% (".+1$#% 9",157% -#0% 56..+#57% 3",-)1,1)7=% (1#-#51-,>% 9",1)15-,% -#0%

65)6.-,%.+(".4=%5-91)-,%9.+/+.3-)1"#>%5".9".-)+%$"3+.#-#5+%-#0%4".+8%%
46

CLSA Forum Voices Clean Disruption Why Conventional Energy and Transport Will Be Obsolete by 2030

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

CLSA Forum Voices Clean Disruption Why Conventional Energy and Transport Will Be Obsolete by 2030

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Stanford BUS45 - Leading Market Disruption-

Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba

Stanford BUS45 - Leading Market Disruption-

5th Ave New York City, April 15, 1900

Photo: Fifth Ave NYC on Easter Morning 1900

Source: US National Archives

5th Ave New York City, March 23, 1913

Photo: Easter 1913, New York. Fifth Avenue looking north.

Source: George Grantham Bain Collection

Clean Disruption - Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba

Stanford BUS45 - Leading Market Disruption-

Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba

Photo: Tony Seba

!create a new market

! destroy an existing product /

Photo: Tony Seba

Clean Disruption - Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba

Stanford BUS45 - Leading Market Disruption-

Fast Forward to 1985

Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba

Mainstream Disruption Forecasts

actual number was

Motorola DynaTAC 8000X from

Clean Disruption - Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba

Stanford BUS45 - Leading Market Disruption-

AT&T Disrupted and $$ Trillions Created

$2.4 trillion - Market Cap Top 15 Global Internet

!!AT&T's landline telephony market was disrupted,

Internet Companies: Internet Report 2015 - Mary Meeker

It's usually the 'Experts' and 'Insiders' who

dismiss disruptive opportunities

"I do not believe the introduction of motor-cars

Clean Disruption - Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba

Stanford BUS45 - Leading Market Disruption-

Why do smart people at

Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba

Photo: Tony Seba

4 Reasons Why Organizations Consistently

1.! Disruption Models

Clean Disruption - Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba

Stanford BUS45 - Leading Market Disruption-

Computing: Moores Law (1971-2011)

! # of transistors doubles (roughly) every two years.

Clean Disruption - Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba

Stanford BUS45 - Leading Market Disruption-

!! Digital Imaging Hendy's Law

PC / Internet / Mobile Phone industries:

!! Network Capacity: Butters Law of

50% every 9 months.

Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba

2015: Key Exponential Technologies

Clean Disruption- Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba

Clean Disruption - Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba

Stanford BUS45 - Leading Market Disruption-

Clean Disruption of Energy & Transportation

Clean Disruption - Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba

Stanford BUS45 - Leading Market Disruption-

Solar PV Costs: DOWN 200X

Graph Source: BNEF Economics of PV Power

Market: Solar PV Installed Capacity: UP 132X

Global Installed Solar PV (MW)

! Solar PV Market CAGR 2000-2014 ~42%

Data Source: EPIA, PV Magazine

Clean Disruption - Copyright 2001-2015 by Tony Seba