Audi BMW and Mercedes-Benz Vying For Sales Supremacy

AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR
SALES SUPREMACY
March 2012
INTRODUCTION
PREMIUM BRANDS, PREMIUM INCOMES
THREE GERMAN BRANDS

FOUR MARKETS
OUTLOOK REVIEW
INTRODUCTION
Scope
This report compares the demand for passenger cars from the Audi, BMW and
Mercedes-Benz premium brands, and considers potential future sales.
All data refers to passenger cars. For consistency, sales of the Mercedes-Benz
Vans division are excluded as neither Audi nor BMW offer commercial
vehicles.
2011
Global Passenger Car Sales
1.30m units
(+19.2%)
Euromonitor International
1.38m units
(+12.8%)
Disclaimer
Much of the information in this
briefing is of a statistical nature and,
while every attempt has been made
to ensure accuracy and reliability,
Euromonitor International cannot be
held responsible for omissions or
errors.
Figures in tables and analyses are
calculated from unrounded data and
may not sum. Analyses found in the
briefings may not totally reflect the
companies' opinions, reader
discretion is advised.
Audi, BMW and MercedesBenz are all vying to dominate

the premium car market.
Success hinges on the four key
markets of China, Germany, the
UK and the US, which account
for more than 60% of the trios
combined sales. The close
relationship between affluent
households and the
performance of these three
leading premium players
suggests the outlook is good for
future sales volumes.
1.28m units
(+8.6%)
AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
PASSPORT 3
INTRODUCTION
Key findings
4 million sales in 2011
Combined. the leading premium automotive brands, Audi, BMW and MercedesBenz, bounced back from recession in 2010 and delivered a record of almost 4
million units in 2011
4 key markets 60% of Sales in the 4 key markets - China, Germany, the UK and the US accounted for
sales
60% of the combined sales volume of Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz in 2011
Audi overtakes
Mercedes
Audi increased sales in all four key markets more than BMW and Mercedes, and
outsold the Mercedes-Benz Cars division for the first time ever in 2011
UK out of the medals
The UK has been relegated to being the 4th largest market for Audi, BMW and
Mercedes-Benz passenger cars since 2010. That said, the three brands posted
10% sales growth in the UK in 2011 - despite the hike in VAT from 17.5% to 20%
China going for gold
Germany remained the largest market for the premium German trio combined in
2011, but China became Audi's largest market in 2011 and will be the #1 sales
country for the BMW brand and Mercedes-Benz Cars division by 2014 at the latest
Premium brands,
premium incomes
Combined car sales of the Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz brands equate to at
least 10% of the number of households with an annual disposable income over
US$100,000 in China, Germany and the UK but just 2% in the US
1 million sales in the US The US market for Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz cars (and SUVs) will easily
exceed 1 million units by 2020
Global sales in 2020
Based on the rise in wealthy households globally, the 3 German premium brands
will sell over 5 million units in 2015 and over 8 million units in 2020, but with an
upside scenario of over 11 million units in 2020
PASSPORT 4
INTRODUCTION
THREE GERMAN BRANDS

FOUR MARKETS
OUTLOOK REVIEW
The historic link
100
10
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Audi, BMW, M-B sales

Passenger car sales (million)
Million households
The world's leading premium car brands (Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz) naturally depend on affluent
households for their sales. In fact, global demand most closely follows the growth pattern of households
with an annual disposable income (ADI) of over US$200,000 in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms.
Audi, BMW and Mercedes sales suffered as a result of the financial crisis, and clearly benefited far less
than mainstream players from industry stimulus packages around the world. However, demand recovered
to exceed pre-crisis levels in 2010, and a new record of nearly 4 million units delivered was seen in 2011.
Economic fragility, weak consumer confidence and tighter lending conditions continue to dampen new car
sales, especially in Europe, but the positive medium- and long-term outlook for wealthy households
suggests that there is potential for strong sales of Germany's leading premium brands.
World: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales, and Households by
Income 2002-2011
ADI> US$100,000
ADI> US$125,000
ADI> US$150,000
ADI> US$200,000
2011
PASSPORT 6
The outlook
Deliveries of passenger cars bearing Audi, BMW or Mercedes badges equated to 14.5% of the number of
homes with an ADI greater than US$200K in 2011. This was a significant rise on 2009, when the sales ratio
dipped to just 12.5%, due to the economic turmoil and, moreover, was almost back to the pre-crisis ratio of
over 15%.
Globally, households with an ADI of over US$200K are forecast to number 37 million and 56 million in 2015
and 2020, respectively.
Based upon the 14.5% ratio achieved in 2011, the global market for the leading German premium brands
would be 5.4 million units in 2015 and 8.2 million in 2020.
However, sales could be higher if economic stability translates into a return of pre-crisis ratios in the US
and key European markets.
100
10
80
60
40
20
Million households
World: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Car Sales, 2005-2011, and Affluent
Households 2005-2020
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
ADI> US$150,000
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
ADI> US$200,000
PASSPORT 7
INTRODUCTION
THREE GERMAN BRANDS

FOUR MARKETS
OUTLOOK REVIEW
THREE GERMAN BRANDS
Global sales performance

The BMW brand has outsold the Mercedes-Benz Cars division since 2005, assisted by the addition of the
1-Series to its portfolio in 2004. Both brands suffered similar declines during the financial crisis, although
the launch of the new E-Class range helped Mercedes recover quicker in 2010. BMW fought back in 2011
though, buoyed by demand for the replacements of the 5-Series and X3 models.
Nevertheless, Audi continues to be the rising star, due largely to its stronger presence in China and lesser
exposure to the slow US market than its rivals. Consequently, Audi increased its sales in 2008 and global
demand only fell by 5.4% in 2009.
World: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales
Moreover, deliveries for
2002-2011
Audi overtook the
Mercedes-Benz Cars
1.4
division for the first time
1.2
ever in 2011, aided not
only by higher volume
1.0
growth in China than
0.8
Mercedes but also at
home in Germany, as a
0.6
result of strong demand
0.4
for the Q5 SUV and the
first full year of sales of
0.2
the A1 small car.
0.0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Audi
BMW
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Mercedes-Benz
PASSPORT 9
THREE GERMAN BRANDS
Audi: Sales in key markets

Audi sales in China have exceeded both the UK and the US since 2007, and it became
Audi's biggest market ahead of Germany in 2011. Phenomenal growth in China is
thus underpinning the ongoing global march of the brand.
Passenger car sales (000)
Audi deliveries to the UK and the US were at their highest ever levels in 2011, and sales
in Germany are essentially back to pre-crisis levels unlike the total car market in the
country.
Audi: Sales in China, Germany, UK and US 2005-2011
The US market still
350
remains Audi's Achilles'
heel (both BMW and
300
Mercedes sell twice as
many cars there) but
250
the brand only lost
10,000 units of sales
200
between 2007 and
2009, and has enjoyed
150
double-digit growth
100
since, returning sales
back above UK levels
50
for the first time since
2006.
0
2005
2006
2007
China
2008
Germany
2009
UK
2010
2011
US
PASSPORT 10
THREE GERMAN BRANDS
BMW: Sales in key markets

As a result of the dramatic crisis-induced decline in demand in the US, Germany has
returned to being the largest market for the BMW brand since 2008.
Despite the UK recovering to pre-crisis levels in 2011, because of healthy growth in

business and fleet sales, China relegated this market to being BMW's fourth largest in
2010 (even though the scrappage incentive was still in effect).
BMW Brand: Sales in China, Germany, UK and US
2005-2011
350
300
Demand for premium

cars continues to rise in
both the US and
Germany in 2012, and
the sales boom in
China also shows no
sign of abating. China is
therefore vying to
become the largest
market for the BMW
brand some years
earlier than expected
prior to the global
recession.
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005
2006
2007
China
2008
Germany
2009
UK
2010
2011
US
PASSPORT 11
THREE GERMAN BRANDS
Mercedes-Benz: Sales in key markets

Unlike BMW and Audi, demand for Mercedes-Benz brand cars in Germany was still
some 20% off the pre-crisis pace in 2011. Nevertheless, Germany remains the largest
market for the company.
However, the persistent crisis in the Euro-zone continues to trouble, Germany and the
short-term outlook for premium vehicle demand is therefore far healthier in the US and
China. In fact, all three markets are converging, with similar levels of demand for
Mercedes-Benz cars in 2012.
As with BMW, China

relegated the UK market
to fourth place in the
Mercedes rankings in
2010.
Mercedes-Benz Cars Division: Sales in China, Germany, UK

and US 2005-2011
350
300
As is already the case for

Audi and will soon be for
BMW, China is destined to
be the largest market for
Mercedes-Benz cars in
2013, or 2014 at the
latest.
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005
2006
2007
China
2008
Germany
2009
UK
2010
2011
US
PASSPORT 12
INTRODUCTION
THREE GERMAN BRANDS

FOUR MARKETS
OUTLOOK REVIEW
FOUR MARKETS
Four markets now account for 60%+ of Audi, BMW and M-B sales
China, Germany, the US and the UK are the four largest markets for Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz.
Despite the contraction of the US, UK and German premium car markets in 2009, the extraordinary growth
in China means that demand for the three German premium car brands fared better in these four markets
than in the rest of the world.
Skyrocketing premium car sales in China in 2010 and 2011, along with recovery in Germany, the US and
the UK, lifted the share of global sales for Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz accounted for by these four
markets to over 60% in 2011. They are therefore critical battlegrounds for these brands.
Passenger Car Sales of the Three German Brands in the Four Key Markets and the
Rest of the World and Percentage Share of Global Sales 2005-2011
62
61
2.0
60
1.5
59
1.0
58
0.5
% share of global sales
2.5
57
0.0
56
2005
2006
2007
Four Key Markets
2008
Rest of World
2009
2010
2011
Share of Global Sales
PASSPORT 14
FOUR MARKETS
Four key markets in comparison

Despite deliveries remaining below pre-crisis levels, Germany remains the largest market for the combined
sales of Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz.
However, demand in China overtook the UK in 2009 and the US in 2010, and is challenging Germany for
the top spot.
Combined deliveries of Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz brand cars in China fell short of Germany by just
32,000 units in 2011, and the economic uncertainty in the Euro-zone means it is almost certain that China
will be the largest premium car market, from 2012 three years after it became the world's largest vehicle
market overall.
Four Markets: Passenger Car Sales of the Three German Premium Brands
2005-2011
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2005
2006
2007
China
2008
Germany
2009
UK
2010
2011
US
PASSPORT 15
FOUR MARKETS
China: German premium brand passenger car sales

Audi remained the leading premium car brand in China in 2011. With 313,000 deliveries, Audi sold a third
more cars than BMW in 2011 and almost 50% more than Mercedes-Benz.
To put this into historical perspective, however, Audi car sales in China were more than double those of
BMW and treble those of Mercedes-Benz as recently as 2007. Audi demand has trebled since, but BMW
deliveries have more than quadrupled, while Mercedes has multiplied its sales almost seven-fold over the
same period. In fact, Mercedes-Benz sales were just 2,000 units below those of BMW in China in 2010
(boosted by the introduction of the new E-Class range) but trailed by 6,000 units in 2011 as BMW launched
its LWB version of the new 5-Series, which was specifically designed for the Chinese market.
China: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales 2005-2011
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
Audi
BMW
2009
2010
2011
Mercedes-Benz
PASSPORT 16
FOUR MARKETS
China: German premium car sales outpace household growth

Demand for Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz cars has ballooned in China in recent years, with the 3
German brands selling over five times more cars in 2011 than in 2006.
Combined sales of the Audi, BMW and Mercedes marques equated to just 11% of Chinese households
with an annual disposable income in excess of US$200,000 in 2006, but growth in sales significantly
outpaced the growth in this income bracket between 2006 and 2011.
Deliveries of the three premium German marques in 2011 equated to 14% of the households with an ADI
over US$100,000 and even 9% of those with an ADI over US$75,000.
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Million households
China: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales and Households by
Income 2005-2011
0.0
2005
2006
2007

ADI> US$125,000
2008
ADI> US$75,000
ADI> US$150,000
2009
2010
2011
ADI> US$100,000
ADI> US$200,000
PASSPORT 17
FOUR MARKETS
China: Emergence of affluent households supports three Germans

Despite the cooling economy, the ongoing emergence of affluent middle-class households in China,
especially in second and third tier cities, bodes well for Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz sales.
Even if demand continues to equate to the same proportion of the number of households with an
ADI>US$100,000 as in 2011, this suggests that the German premium marques will deliver 1.3 million units
in 2015 and 2.8 million in 2020.
However, sales are trending towards equalling 10% of the number of homes with an annual disposable
income of just US$75,000. At this level, a sales volume of 3.4 million units would be achieved in 2020.
35
3.5
30
3.0
25
2.5
20
2.0
15
1.5
10
1.0
0.5
China: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales and

Households by Income 2005-2020
Million households
The proposed ban on

Chinese government
officials buying
foreign cars would
naturally have a
detrimental impact on
sales, especially for
Audi, but new model
activity will inevitably
compensate for this,
and the removal of
the stigma of being
the cars of officialdom
might even benefit
demand.
0.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ADI> US$75,000
ADI> US$100,000
ADI> US$125,000
ADI> US$150,000
ADI> US$200,000
PASSPORT 18
FOUR MARKETS
Germany: German premium brand passenger car sales

The recovery of Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz car sales in their home market was negligible in 2010 but
demand increased by 6% in 2011.
However, growth was still lower than for the total passenger car market, which expanded by 9%, and the
addition of the A1 small car to Audi's portfolio and the new versions of the BMW 5-Series and X3 boosted
the market more than any major structural improvement. Mercedes-Benz sales actually declined slightly in
2011, despite the launch of the new C-Class Coupe, CLS, SLK and the revised C-Class.
German premium car sales had already suffered as a result of the increase in VAT from 16% to 19% in
2007, and the financial crisis meant that demand was down 13% from a peak in 2006 to a trough of 2009.
The premium brands clearly did not benefit from the scrappage incentive scheme.
Germany: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales 2005-2011
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
Audi
BMW
2009
2010
2011
Mercedes-Benz
PASSPORT 19
FOUR MARKETS
Germany: Sales of the three Germans to 1-in-5 affluent households
Nevertheless, the 1:5 ratio

of sales of Audi, BMW and
Mercedes-Benz cars to
households with ADIs over
US$100K is far short of the
1:3 ratio achieved in 2005.
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Moreover, the growth in

demand in 2010 and 2011
is again tracking the
development of affluent
households, as it did until
the VAT rise in 2007.
Germany: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car

Sales and Households by Income 2005-2011
Million households
Despite the weakness of

Audi, BMW and MercedesBenz passenger car sales
in 2011 by historical
standards, demand still
equated to 20% of the
number of German
households with an annual
disposable income in
excess of US$100,000.
0.0
2005
2006
2007

ADI> US$125,000
ADI> US$200,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
ADI> US$100,000
ADI> US$150,000
PASSPORT 20
FOUR MARKETS
Germany: Affluence and the end of thrift support steady growth

While German consumers on the whole have maintained a degree of caution in terms of purchasing and
borrowing, there has been something of a return to pre-crisis habits. More consumers have been willing to
spend money on bigger ticket purchases, such as large household appliances, holidays and home
improvements.
This willingness to spend and the steady rise in affluent households means that even if demand for the
dominant premium players' products equates to one in five homes with an ADI>US$100,000, as in 2011,
Audi, BMW and Mercedes will sell 1 million cars at home in 2015 and 1.5 million in 2020.
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
ADI> US$100,000
2012
2013
2014
ADI> US$125,000
2015
2016
2017
2018
ADI> US$150,000
2019
Million households
On the upside, if the demand to households ratio returns to the 2007 level (the year of the VAT rise), of
27%, sales volume will exceed 2 million units in 2020.
Germany: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales and Households by
Income 2005-2020
2020
ADI> US$200,000
PASSPORT 21
FOUR MARKETS
UK: German premium brand passenger car sales

The UK passenger car market declined by 4% overall in 2011, as the scrappage scheme ended and VAT
was increased from 17.5% to 20%. However, combined sales of the three leading German premium brands
increased by 10% outpacing the 5% growth in fleet sales and setting an all-time record of 312,000 Audi,
BMW and Mercedes-Benz registrations.
At brand level, Audi was the clear star performer, increasing sales by 14% and smashing its previous
record set in 2008 in the process buoyed in particular by demand for the new A1.
BMW and Mercedes-Benz sales increased by 7% and 9%, respectively, in 2011 bolstered by new
versions of the BMW 5-Series and X3, and the Mercedes CLS, SLK and C-Class, as well as the addition of
the C-Class Coupe.
UK: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales 2005-2011
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
Audi
BMW
2009
2010
2011
Mercedes-Benz
PASSPORT 22
FOUR MARKETS
UK: German premium brand sales track US$100K households

In 2011, registrations of Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz passenger cars again followed the development
pattern of Britain's affluent homes, as they have done consistently, except in 2008.
UK sales of the three premium market leaders approached 13% of the number of households with an
annual disposable income in excess of US$100,000 in 2011. This percentage is a recovery from the
weakness of 2009 and 2010, and actually slightly higher than the proportion in 2008, when the financial
crisis unfolded.
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Million households
UK: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales and Households by
Income 2005-2011
0.0
2005
2006
2007
ADI> US$100,000
2008
ADI> US$125,000
2009
2010
ADI> US$150,000
2011
ADI> US$200,000
PASSPORT 23
FOUR MARKETS
UK: Consumer confidence remains a sticking point

The effects of the VAT increase are fading in the UK, and consumer confidence is rising as positive
economic data and lower inflation improve expectations of the future economic situation.
However, consumer confidence levels remain well below pre-crisis levels, negatively impacting consumers'
willingness to spend.
Nevertheless, even if demand for the German premium brands equates to 13% of the number of homes
with an ADI over US$100,000, as it did in 2011, Audi, BMW and Mercedes are on track to sell 400,000 cars
in 2015 and over half a million in 2020.
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Million households
If the demand to households ratio returns to average pre-crisis levels, sales volume will exceed 600,000
units in 2020.
UK: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales and Households by
Income 2005-2020
0.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
ADI> US$100,000
2012
2013
2014
ADI> US$125,000
2015
2016
2017
2018
ADI> US$150,000
2019
2020
ADI> US$200,000
PASSPORT 24
FOUR MARKETS
US: German premium brand autos sales

With 14% growth in 2011, Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz autos sales (passenger cars and SUVs, which
are registered as light trucks in the US) outpaced the total market's recovery. As in Germany though, sales
remained stubbornly below the 2007 peak.
BMW managed to fend off a strong challenge from Mercedes-Benz in 2011 and both brands have sales
double those of Audi.
However, as in China, Germany and the UK, Audi enjoyed the highest percentage growth of all three
brands in 2011. Audi is seeking to replicate the recent successes of its Volkswagen sibling by offering
products tailored to US tastes, such as a sedan version of the A3, which is scheduled for launch in 2014.
US: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Autos Sales 2005-2011
350
Autos sales (000)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
Audi
BMW
2009
2010
2011
Mercedes-Benz
PASSPORT 25
FOUR MARKETS
US: Weak penetration but consistent development

The penetration of Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz is understandably weak in the US due to strong
competition from both domestic upmarket players, such as Cadillac and Lincoln, as well as from the
Japanese premium brands Acura, Infiniti and Lexus.
Nevertheless, demand still tracks the development of wealthy US homes, although sales of the three
German marques typically equate to only 2% of the number of households with an ADI of over US$100,000
(compared to 13-14% in the UK and China and 20% in Germany in 2011).
40
4.0
35
3.5
30
3.0
25
2.5
20
2.0
15
1.5
10
1.0
0.5
Autos sales (million)
Million households
US: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Autos Sales and Households by Income
2005-2011
0.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
ADI> US$100,000
ADI> US$125,000
ADI> US$200,000
ADI> US$250,000
ADI> US$300,000
2010
2011
ADI> US$150,000
PASSPORT 26
FOUR MARKETS
US: Less belt-tightening, more credit

The widespread belt-tightening began to abate in 2011 as a slight increase in employment brought cheer to
many US citizens. However, lenders remain cautious in issuing loans for home, auto and other purchases,
although the situation is improving.
This, and the stable outlook for growth in the number of affluent US homes suggests that even if the ratio of
the three German premium brands' sales to households over US$100,000 is maintained, Audi, BMW and
Mercedes will sell more than 700,000 autos in 2015 and over 900,000 in 2020.
60
50
40
30
20
10
Autos sales (million)
Million households
If the demand to households ratio returns to pre-crisis level, the leading German premium brands will easily
top sales of 1 million units in 2020.
US: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Autos Sales and Households by Income
2005-2020
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
ADI> US$100,000
ADI> US$125,000
ADI> US$200,000
ADI> US$250,000
ADI> US$300,000
2017
2018
2019
2020
ADI> US$150,000
PASSPORT 27
INTRODUCTION
THREE GERMAN BRANDS

FOUR MARKETS
OUTLOOK REVIEW
OUTLOOK REVIEW
Market outlook: Base case

The ratio of sales of the premium German brands to the number of households with an ADI over
US$100,000 naturally varies by market.
Considering the outlook for the number of these households and by simply applying the (historically weak,
except in China) percentage ratio of 2011, provides a cautious outlook by market.
Even in this scenario, China is set to become the largest single market for the 3 German premium brands
under review in 2012 and to be nearly twice the size of Germany in 2020.
Global sales of over 5 million units are implied in 2015, rising to over 8 million units in 2020.
Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales 2005-2011, 2015 and 2020
9
8
7
6
Rest of the World
US
UK
Germany
China
1
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2015
2020
PASSPORT 29
OUTLOOK REVIEW
Market outlook: Upside scenario

Applying the healthier pre-crisis percentage ratios of premium car sales by market to the outlook for
households provides a more bullish view.
As premium car sales in China continue to outpace the growth in the number of households over all
disposable income levels, the bullish outlook here assumes that this trend will continue, and equates
premium car sales to 10% of households that are forecast to have an ADI in excess of US$75,000 in 2015
and 2020.
In this scenario, global sales of almost 7 million units are implied in 2015 and 11 million units in 2020.
12
10
Rest of the World

US
UK
Germany
China
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2015
2020
PASSPORT 30
OUTLOOK REVIEW
Brand outlook: Base case

Regardless of new model activity, Audi is expected to pull further ahead of the Mercedes-Benz Cars
division in the coming years, as a result of the phenomenal growth potential in China.
However, Audi still trailed the BMW brand by 80,000 units in 2011 and, unless it can gain share through
new model activity, it is expected to lag BMW through 2015 in our cautious base case as BMW stands to
benefit more than Audi from growth in the US and the rest of the world (ie outside the four key markets
under review).
10
9
8
7
6
Mercedes-Benz
BMW
Audi
4
3
2
1
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2015
2020
PASSPORT 31
OUTLOOK REVIEW
Brand outlook: Upside scenario

In our bullish scenario, which is largely led by a more optimistic outlook for premium car sales in China,
BMW is still forecast to sell more cars globally than Audi in 2015.
However, the gap between Audi and BMW global sales is set to narrow to less than 50,000 units in 2015,
with Audi set to deliver 2.33 million units compared to 2.37 million for the BMW brand.
However, these scenarios assume a similar competitive situation and all three brands, are naturally looking
to extend their respective portfolios.
12
10
8
Mercedes-Benz
6
BMW
Audi
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2015
2020
PASSPORT 32
OUTLOOK REVIEW
Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz sales: The upshot
Audi's strong position in China

stands the brand in good stead,
but this alone will not be enough
to surpass BMW brand sales
globally by 2015, especially
given Audi's weaker presence in
the US.
However, the addition of the 5door variant of the A1 and a
sedan derivative of the next
generation A3 could yet help to
push Audi sales ahead of BMW.
BMW has been the leading

premium car brand since 2005,
but will face stiffer competition
from Audi as Chinese demand
continues to boom. However,
BMW will benefit more from any
recovery in the US.
Even if Audi does manage to
overtake BMW, the comparison
is skewed as only Audi offers
small cars, for which BMW
utilises the Mini brand.
Deliveries of the MercedesBenz Cars division trailed Audi

for the first time ever in 2011.
This was essentially because
Audi particularly benefited from
the boom in demand for
premium cars in China, and the
addition of the A1 small car.
However, the comprehensively
redesigned A-Class family will
inevitably boost MercedesBenz's sales from 2012.
PASSPORT 33
REPORT DEFINITIONS
Briefing definitions
Definitions of industry-specific terminology/abbreviations used in this report:
LWB Long Wheelbase: Refers to extended versions of passenger cars. These are typically favoured by
Chinese consumers, and LWB versions of European models are therefore commonly developed for the
Chinese market.
SUV Sports Utility Vehicle: Refers to the Audi Q5 and Q7, BMW X1, X3 and X5, Mercedes-Benz GLK, M
and GL model ranges. Sports Utility Vehicles are not registered as passenger cars in the US, but as light
trucks. However, they have been included here for the sake of consistent comparison.
PASSPORT 34
Experience more...
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the commercial environment. Also available from Euromonitor
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PASSPORT 35

Audi BMW and Mercedes-Benz Vying For Sales Supremacy

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AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR

THREE GERMAN BRANDS

Audi, BMW and MercedesBenz are all vying to dominate

AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY

UK out of the medals

China going for gold

THREE GERMAN BRANDS

PREMIUM BRANDS, PREMIUM INCOMES

The historic link

Audi, BMW, M-B sales

AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY

PREMIUM BRANDS, PREMIUM INCOMES

Passenger car sales (million)

Audi, BMW, M-B sales

AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY

THREE GERMAN BRANDS

THREE GERMAN BRANDS

Global sales performance

Passenger car sales (million)

AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY

THREE GERMAN BRANDS

Audi: Sales in key markets

Passenger car sales (000)

AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY

THREE GERMAN BRANDS

BMW: Sales in key markets

Despite the UK recovering to pre-crisis levels in 2011, because of healthy growth in

Demand for premium

AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY

THREE GERMAN BRANDS

Mercedes-Benz: Sales in key markets

As with BMW, China

Mercedes-Benz Cars Division: Sales in China, Germany, UK

As is already the case for

AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY

THREE GERMAN BRANDS

% share of global sales

Passenger car sales (million)

Share of Global Sales

AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY

Four key markets in comparison

AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY

China: German premium brand passenger car sales

Passenger car sales (000)

AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY

China: German premium car sales outpace household growth

Passenger car sales (million)

Audi, BMW, M-B sales

AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY

China: Emergence of affluent households supports three Germans

Passenger car sales (million)

China: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales and

The proposed ban on

AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY

Germany: German premium brand passenger car sales

Passenger car sales (000)

AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY

Germany: Sales of the three Germans to 1-in-5 affluent households

Nevertheless, the 1:5 ratio

Passenger car sales (million)

Moreover, the growth in

Germany: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car

Despite the weakness of