Professional Documents
Culture Documents
RICS Economics
H2 2014
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1994
per acre
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
* where residential value is estimated to be less than 50% of total value (based on a 4 quarter moving average)
**Series started in 2003
Net balance, %
80
2014
Rising
60
40
20
-20
-40
-60
Commercial
Falling
1999
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
per acre
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
Scotland North Eastern South
East
East
East
Mids
Wales
80
Net balance, %
West
Mids
Rising
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
joshuamiller@rics.org
See notes to editors on
next page descripon of
data and methodology.
2001
Source: RICS
9000
Residential
-80
-60
-80
Commercial
Residential
-100
Falling
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Source: RICS / RAU
Graphs, charts and data are available to the media on request. Contact the RICS Press office on: (0)20 7695 1634/ +44 (0)20 7334 3736
Notes to editors
The statistics provided by RICS members in England, Wales and Scotland, are collated by the Royal Agricultural
University, Cirencester.
Rents:
Rental figures refer to the typical rent paid for let land for all grades, expressed as a median of all responses of five
or more.
England and Wales rent figures are the weighted average of regional results.
England and Wales yield figure is simple average for all data collected.
ATA = Agricultural Tenancies Act 1995; AHA = Agricultural Holdings Act 1986.
Land prices:
Figures refer to the typical prices paid, in per acre for bare land.
Regional figures expressed as a median of all responses of five or more.
England and Wales figure is the weighted average (by region).
Non-residential land: where estimated residential value is less than 50%.
Residential land: where estimated residential value is greater than 50%.
The RICS transaction based measure of farm land prices is based on actual sales and includes a residential component, where that component is estimated to be worth less than 50% of the total value of the plot.
The RICS opinion based measure of farm land prices is a hypothetical estimate of bare land only i.e. it excludes the
residential component. As a result, the opinion based measure will tend to be less than the transaction based measure.
Farmland purchasers:
Regional figures for each category are based upon the average response of surveyors responding.
Figures may not aggregate to 100% due to rounding errors.
National balances refer to Great Britain and are based upon a simple average across all respondents.
Net balances:
Balance = Proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in demand/availability minus those reporting a fall (if 30% reported a rise and 5% reported a fall, the net balance will be 25%).
Demand and supply balances based on change over previous year.
Expectations balances based on change over next year.
National balances refer Great Britain and are based upon a simple average across all respondents.
Net balance data is opinion based; it does not quantify actual changes in an underlying variable.
Net balance data can range from -100 to +100.
A positive net balance implies that more respondents are seeing increases than decreases (in the underlying variable), a negative net balance implies that more respondents are seeing decreases than increases and a zero net balance implies an equal number of respondents are seeing increases and decreases.
Therefore, a -100 reading implies that no respondents are seeing increases (or no change), and a +100 reading
implies that no respondents are seeing decreases (or no change).
A change from +30 to +60 does not mean that the variable grew by 30% in one period and by 60% in the next period, but it does indicate that twice as many surveyors reported an increase compared to a decrease than in the previous period.
Likewise, if the net balance reading drops from +90 to +5, this still means that more respondents are reporting increases than decreases overall, but the breadth of those reporting increases has fallen dramatically; meanwhile, a
shift in the reading from -90 to -5 still means that more respondents are reporting decreases than increases overall,
but the breadth of those reporting decreases has fallen dramatically.
prices.
Scotland
Malcolm Taylor FRICS, Bell
Ingram, Forfar, 01307 462516 Demand for prime arable land still
strong especially land for
vegetables and potatoes. Sales up
to 12k per acre have been
agreed. Demand for poorer land
or land difficult to work has slipped.
Arable and stock units, and units
with limited arable potential will
become less attractive in the
coming year as commodity prices
fall in the spring 2015.
Mark Mitchell FRICS, Bell Ingram
Limited, Perth, 01738 621121
The two main issues faced in
2014 were the referendum and
CAP Review. Both of these
impacted significantly on land
sales in the second half of 2014.
The referendum brought the
market to a standstill with sellers
being nervous about placing
property on the market. The lack of
any real detail about the Basic
Scheme made both sellers and
purchasers wary, in particular what
entitlements might or might not be
transferable and the likely level of
future payment. All in all a year of
little sales activity due to
considerable uncertainty for both
sellers and purchasers.
James Galbraith MRICS, CKD
Galbraith, Edinburgh, 01312
406962 The lower subsidy
payments will affect land values,
particularly following a difficult year
in 2013 and with lower commodity
2015.
Jennifer Whitton MRICS,
Howkins & Harrison, Rugby,
01788 564694 The second
half of 2014 has seen an
increase in land being offered,
especially smaller blocks of offlying bare land. Land is
generally being sold where
farmers are retiring or families
have split up. A number of
properties sold this half have
been purchased by existing
farmers and the majority of
interest has come from farmers,
both locally and nationally if
there is a house and buildings
with the land. We are also
finding that location and type of
land is having a much bigger
impact on land sales and values
and a bigger gap is being seen
between well located quality
land and badly located poor
land. Rollover relief continues to
play a big part in rising land
values which is unlikely to
change until development
ceases.
Andrew Pearce MRICS, Savills,
Lincoln, 01522 508933
Supply will be restricted
particularly in relation to
commercial arable units but
much will depend on bank
borrowing and low commodity
prices which may force more
land on to the open market.
Demand will continue to remain
strong with purchasers
competing for the available
units. We predict that there will
be increased interest in the
better located residential
holdings on the back of the
improving residential market.
Demand is particularly strong for
the larger commercial arable
holdings and we predict that the
volume of private deals will
increase further in 2015 to as
much as possibly 35% of overall
sales.
Charlotte Smithson MRICS,
Smiths Gore, Lincoln, 01522
507310 Investor buyers
continue to push up land values
in Lincolnshire on larger blocks.
Smaller blocks are still being
purchase predominantly by
farmers.
Sam Holt MRICS, Strutt & Parker
LLP, London, 02073 185172
Blocks of land over 100 acres
remain attractive to agribusinesses with diverse income
streams. Smaller farmers have
been affected by lower commodity
prices, and as a result we may see
some of these come to the market
in the next six to twelve months.
Some large parcels of land have
traded without coming to the open
market, which has resulted in a
premium, but often only where
marriage value is concerned.
Rental values have been
compressed due to the lack of
return in the second half of 2014.
North East
David Coulson FRICS, Addisons
Chartered Surveyors, Crook,
07779 623371 The continuing
shortage of quality farms continues
to distort the market. There is a
premium for quality farms and bare
land but demand for other land has
eased slightly. We have
experienced a huge variation in
sale prices across the north east
with a variation of as much as 30%
for arable land. Upland hill farms
lacking decent buildings can be
difficult to sell as stock needs to be
wintered when brought down from
the hill. Small parcels of grassland
under 10 acres have been making
substantial prices with many well in
excess of 10,000 per acre.
Sam Johnson MRICS, Carter
Jonas, Harrogate, 07768 658217General scarcity continues to be
the prevailing factor responsible for
the preservation of high values.
The market however is incredibly
discerning and values vary greatly
across the region and as such, an
appreciation of the local market is
key. It has been clearly
demonstrated that there are good
quality purchasers willing to pay a
premium for large, good quality,
commercial blocks of agricultural
land and well equipped units.
Properties with sporting value in
the region are also generating
significant interest from the
market.
perceptions appear to be
encouraging landowners to hold
onto farmland in the expectation
that prices will continue to
increase and/or stabilise (but
not go down). The limited
supply of farmland to the open
market continues to create
fierce competition for the best
commercial blocks of farmland
but buyers appear increasingly
discerning with significant
discounts being applied to land
with shortcomings.
Comparatively less interest
residential farms despite
recovery in housing markets.
Increasing supply of pasture
land and small arable blocks to
rental market.
South West
Kit Harding FRICS, Carter
Jonas, Bath, 01225 747271 The farmland market in the
west country continues to see a
lack of supply. Premium prices
are being paid for well equipped
farms and larger blocks of
arable land. A greater
divergency between the value of
pasture land and arable land is
becoming evident and prices for
both are dictated by local
demand and quality. In some
less fashionable areas land is
proving more difficult to sell.
David Kivell FRICS, D R Kivell
and Partners, Tavistock, 01822
810810 - The 2014 farm and
land market suffered at the
hands of a late wet spring and
lower commodity prices.Low
milk prices will make banks less
keen to support land purchases
although prospects for beef and
sheep appear more optimistic.
Large scale pig farmers are very
bullish in the land market. The
change from single to basic
payment scheme is looking like
no more than a storm in a tea
cup. Residential buyers seem
poised to re-enter the residential
farm market.
William Fox Grant MRICS, Fox
Grant, Salisbury, 01722 782727
There is a dire shortage of
supply of farms and bare land of
any quantity. In the 25 years of
marketing farmland I can not
remember a time with such a
West Midlands
Tim Main MRICS, Balfours,
Shrewsbury, 01743 353511
Quality land is still selling well.
Buyers are still more conscious of
problems such as bad access.
Contributor details
England National
Ben Taylor
MRICS,
Bidwells,
Cambridge,
01223 559459
Scotland National
Malcolm Taylor
FRICS, Bell
Ingram, Forfar,
01307 462516
Stewart
Hamilton
MRICS, Bell
Ingram, Forfar,
01307 462516
Mark Mitchell
FRICS, Bell
Ingram Limited,
Perth, 01738
621121
Alison Muir
MRICS, CKD
Galbraith, Ayr,
01292 292533
Rachel Myles
MRICS, CKD
Galbraith,
Cupar, 01334
659 989
James
Galbraith,
MRICS, CKD
Galbraith,
Edinburgh,
01312 406962
Rod Christie
FRICS, CKD
Galbraith,
Elgin,01343
546362
Mike Thompson
MRICS, CKD
Galbraith,
Galashiels,
01896 662823
William Inglis
MRICS, CKD
Galbraith, Isle
of Islay, 07920
273991
Colin Stewart
MRICS, CKD
Galbraith,
Perth, 01738
448144
Charlotte Lane
MRICS, CKD
Galbraith,
Stirling, 07899
877728
Gordon
McConachie,
CKD Galbraith,
Aberdeen,
01224 860710
Walter Barbour
FRICS, CKD
Galbraith,
Perth, 01738
456 069
Rhona Booth
MRICS,
Davidson &
Robertson
Rural, Forfar,
01307 490220
Stuart Sharp,
GM Thopson,
Stranraer,
07874 158270
James Denne
MRICS, Knight
Frank LLP,
Lauder, 01578
722814
Jennifer
Campbell
MRICS, Peter
Graham &
Associates
LLP, Avoch,
01463 811942
James Boulton
MRICS, Smiths
Gore, Wooler,
01668 280812
Wales National
Tim Main
MRICS,
Balfours,
Shrewsbury,
01743 353511
Iwan Jones
MRICS, BJP,
Carmarthen,
01267 236363
Eifion Bibby
MRICS, DMPC,
Colwyn Bay,
01492 510360
Kathryn Perkins
MRICS,
Edward Perkins
Chartered
Surveyors,
Haverfordwest,
01437 760730
James
Andrews
MRICS,
Llewellyn
Humphreys,
Carmarthen,
01267 237812
Gareth Wall
MRICS,
McCartneys
LLP, Kington,
01544 230316
Glyn Owens
FRICS,
McCartneys
LLP, Knighton,
01547 528621
Victoria Rees
MRICS, Owen
and Owen,
Pembroke,
01646 621500
David Powell
MRICS,
Powells,
Monmouth,
01600 714140
Gareth Lloyd
FRICS, Watts &
Morgan,
Cowbridge,
01446 774152
Eastern
DH Sinfield
FRICS,
Alexanders,
Huntingdon,
01480 432220
Barry Hawkins,
Barry L
Hawkins ,
Downham
Market, 01366
387180
Ben Taylor
MRICS,
Bidwells,
Cambridge,
01223 559459
Jim Major
FRICS,
Brown&Co,
Kings Lynn,
07768 465748
Robert Hurst
FRICS, Fisher
German,
Newark, 01636
642504
Ashley
Dodgson
MRICS, GSC
Grays, Bedale,
01677 422400
Mark Russell
MRICS, Carter
Jonas,
Cambridge,
01223 346 628
Jennifer
Whitton
MRICS,
Howkins &
Harrison,
Rugby, 01788
564694
James Boulton
MRICS, Smiths
Gore, Wooler,
01668 280812
Chris Leney
MRICS,
Robinson &
Hall, Ipswich,
01473 835253
Adrian Wilson
MRICS, Savills,
Cambridge,
01223 347231
Giles Allen
MRICS, Strutt &
Parker, Ipswich,
01473 214841
Tom Goodley
MRICS, Strutt &
Parker,
Norwich, 01603
617431
Tim Fagan
MRICS, Strutt
and Parker,
Chelmsford,
07702 199588
East Midlands
Rupert Harrison
FRICS, Andrew
Granger,
Loughborough,
01509 243720
Julia Hayhurst
MRICS,
Bagshaws,
Uttoxeter,
01889 562811
Ben Taylor
MRICS,
Bidwells,
Cambridge,
01223 559459
Elizabeth Allen
MRICS, Brown
& Co, Spalding,
01775 717894
Rupert West
FRICS, King
West, Market
Harborough,
01858 435970
Peter Horne
FRICS,
Merryweathers,
Doncaster,
07836 310565
Camilla
Shipley, Pygott
& Crone,
Sleaford,
01529 414555
Andrew Pearce
MRICS, Savills,
Lincoln, 01522
508933
Charlotte
Smithson
MRICS, Smiths
Gore, Lincoln,
01522 507310
Sam Holt
MRICS, Strutt
& Parker LLP,
London, 02073
185172
North East
David Coulson
FRICS,
Addisons
Chartered
Surveyors,
Crook, 07779
623371
Sam Johnson
MRICS, Carter
Jonas,
Harrogate,
07768 658217
William
Douglas
MRICS, Smiths
Gore, York,
01904 756303
Charles Raine
FRICS,
YoungsRPS,
Hexham, 07730
546422
North West
Graham
Bowcock
MRICS, Berrys,
Northwich,
01606 818953
Craig Brough
MRICS, H&H
Land &
Property,
Carlisle, 01228
406260
Andrew Coney
MRICS, P
Wilson &
Company,
Preston, 01772
882277
Jo Edwards
MRICS,
PFKLand
Agency,
Penrith, 01768
866611
Tony Rimmer
MRICS,
Rostons,
Chester, 01829
773000
William
Douglas
MRICS, Smiths
Gore, York,
01904 756303
South East
Matthew Allen
MRICS, Fisher
German,
Banbury, 01295
271555
Ian Calverley
MRICS, Fisher
German,
Retford, 01777
861 927
Neal
Thompson
FRICS, Edwin
Thompson,
Berwick upon
Tweed, 01289
304432
Julian Sayers
FRICS, Adkin,
Wantage,
07850 397667
Russell Parkes
MRICS,
Batcheller
Monkhouse,
Pulborough,
01798 872081
David Kivell
FRICS, D R
Kivell and
Partners,
Tavistock, 01822
810810
Matthew Peters
FRICS, Bruton
Knowles,
Gloucester,
01452 880184
William Fox
Grant MRICS,
Fox Grant,
Salisbury, 01722
782727
Richard
Liddiard
FRICS, Carter
Jonas,
Newbury,
01635 263012
Martyn Venner
MRICS,
Greenslade
Taylor Hunt,
Bridgwater,
01278 425555
Ed Smith,
MRICS, Carter
Jonas LLP,
Oxford, 01865
404443
Will Handel
MRICS,
Greenslade
Taylor Hunt,
Honiton, 01404
46222
Martin Allen,
MRICS, Elgars,
Canterbury,
01227 720557
Matthew Allen
MRICS, Fisher
German,
Banbury, 01295
271555
Rowan Allan
MRICS, HJ
Burt, Steyning,
01903 879488
Andrew Brown
MRICS,
Marriotts
Property LLP,
Faringdon,
01367 242422
Matthew
Sudlow MRICS,
Strutt & Parker
LLP, London,
02073 184668
Simon Male
MRICS,
Woolley &
Wallis,
Salisbury,
01722 424515
South West
Richard
Greasby
MRICS, Butler
Sherborn,
Cirenecster,
01285 883740
Kit Harding
FRICS, Carter
Jonas, Bath,
01225 747271
Richard Webber
MRICS,
Greenslade
Taylor Hunt,
South Molton,
01769 574500
Charles Lucas
FRICS,
Humberts,
Marlborough,
01672 519111
Stuart Hext
MRICS,
Luscombe
Maye,
Kingsbridge,
01548 857474
Andrew Brown
MRICS,
Marriotts
Property LLP,
Faringdon,
01367 242422
Ryan Kuszek
MRICS, National
Trust, Bristol,
01275 378440
Philip Hodgkin
MRICS, Smiths
Gore, Taunton,
01823 446986
Andrew Dodds
MRICS, Stags,
South Molton,
01769 575244
Stuart Gray
MRICS, Strutt &
Parker LLP, St
Albans, 01727
738297
Contributor details
Adrian Cannon
MRICS, Tayler
& Fletcher LLP,
Bourton-on-theWater, 01451
820913
Tom Pullin
MRICS, Voyce
Pullin, Bristol,
01454 269486
Simon Male
MRICS,
Woolley &
Wallis,
Salisbury,
01722 424515
Richard Banks
MRICS, G
Herbert Banks,
Great Witley,
01299 896968
Jennifer
Whitton,
MRICS,
Howkins &
Harrison,
Rugby, 01788
564694
Gareth Wall
MRICS,
McCartneys
LLP, Kington,
01544 230316
West Midlands
Julia Hayhurst
MRICS,
Bagshaws,
Uttoxeter,
01889 562811
Tim Main
MRICS,
Balfours,
Shrewsbury,
01743 353511
Mike Taylor
FRICS, Barbers
Rural, Market
Drayton, 01630
692500
Jeremy Jehan
MRICS,
Brightwells,
Hereford,
01432 261325
Matthew Peters
FRICS, Bruton
Knowles,
Gloucester,
01452 880184
Victoria Pocock
MRICS, Carter
Jonas,
Shrewsbury,
01939 210101
Charles
Meynell
FRICS, Fisher
German LLP,
Stafford, 01785
273999
Glyn Owens
FRICS,
McCartneys
LLP, Knighton,
01547 528621
Jack Tavernor
MRICS, Strutt
and Parker,
Shrewsbury,
01743 284206
Yorkshire &
Humberside
Sam Johnson
MRICS, Carter
Jonas,
Harrogate,
07768 658217
Ashley
Dodgson
MRICS, GSC
Grays, Bedale,
01677 422400
Peter Horne
FRICS,
Merryweathers,
Doncaster,
07836 310565
William
Douglas
MRICS, Smiths
Gore, York,
01904 756303
William Fox
Grant MRICS,
Fox Grant,
Salisbury,
01722 782727
RAU
Diane Martin MRICS, FAAV
Senior Lecturer in Valuation
T: + 44 (0)1285 652531
diane.martin@rau.ac.uk
10