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MEMORANDUM FOR REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE MEMBERS
FROM: Bill Steiner, Director of Strategy
DATE: March 16, 2010
Just 30%...
Our recent national survey of likely voters found that 27% of all voters are currently undecided
on the generic ballot test (37% GOP, 36% Dem, 27% und). Among these undecided voters just
30% favor the Democrats’ health care bill while 60% oppose it.
In fact, unfavorable impressions among all voters of President Obama’s health care proposal
are in danger of eclipsing the embarrassingly high unfavorable impressions of Nancy Pelosi
(29% Favorable, 56% Unfavorable). Support for the legislation among all voters has fallen
below 40%, with more voters in strong opposition than total support. Unease over spending,
Medicare cuts, higher taxes, and a growing deficit is high. And numerous public surveys have
shown Independent voters mirroring Republican disgust with the legislation.
Amazingly in the face of this clear and obvious opposition, Nancy Pelosi remains determined to
lead her members to a vote this week.
But while the wheeling and dealing goes on in Washington to secure the votes Pelosi needs, the
pay‐back from the Obama Administration that Democratic members are bargaining for may not
be the only pay‐back that Democrat incumbents receive this year. The reality is that Democrat
incumbents face an increasingly hostile electorate heading into November, and the impending
health care vote only exacerbates the problems they will have at the polls.
While Republicans currently lead on the generic ballot, the narrow advantage for Republican
candidates belies the real trouble that the health care vote creates for Democrat incumbents.
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The quarter (27%) of the electorate who are currently undecided on the generic ballot – those
voters who incumbents and challengers of both parties must appeal to before November – are
even less enamored with President Obama’s health care legislation and less supportive of
candidates who might vote for that legislation than the electorate at‐large.
• Twice as many undecided voters oppose the legislation than support it, with 60%
opposing it and 45% strongly opposing it.
• Over 65% of undecided voters say that the current bill should be scrapped, while only
20% say the current bill should be passed as soon as possible.
• Only a quarter (25%) of undecided voters said they’d be more likely to vote for a
candidate who voted for President Obama’s health care bill, while a majority (51%)
said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who voted for the bill.
• When reminded of the bill’s $400 billion in cuts to Medicare and Medicaid, over two‐
thirds (69%) of undecided voters said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate
who voted for the legislation. A majority (52%) are “much less likely.” Less than 10%
are more likely to vote for a candidate who voted for the bill.
• The “backroom deals” that have characterized the Democrat deliberations in Congress
make the legislation even less palatable to undecided voters. 77% of undecided
voters say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who made these backroom
deals, while 67% say that they would be much less likely.
And thinking about the election more generically:
• More than twice as many undecided voters (46%‐19%) prefer a “Republican candidate
who would be a check and balance to President Obama and the Democrats in
Congress” to a “Democrat candidate who would help President Obama and Democrats
in Congress pass their agenda.”
• Undecided voters by a 22 point margin (53%‐31%) agree that they would “consider
voting for a Republican for Congress to send a message to President Obama and the
Democrats and make them listen to voters like me.”
Furthermore, with over 80% of Democrats already lending their support to Democratic
candidates, Democratic incumbents are left with little room to grow within their own base.
Democrat incumbents should do some simple math in their districts before they cast their vote.
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