CAN

HE
WIN?

Executive Summary
Ted Cruz has committed his entire life to the Foundational principles that made
America great. From reciting the Constitution to Chambers of Commerce as a
teenager; to his time in the Bush Administration; to his powerful victories before
the Supreme Court; and finally, as one of the leading conservatives in the Senate,
Ted has been a Courageous Conservative.
If Republicans nominate a conservative in 2016, there is a good chance we can
win the White House
The Establishment however never seems to learn that moderates dont win
The 2016 Primary will be completely different from past primaries due to changes
to the primary calendar and the number of well-funded candidates
Ted Cruzs leadership role on the most important issues that matter to primary
voters: Marriage, Religious Freedom, Immigration, Common Core, ObamaCare,
Debt and the Second Amendment uniquely position him to build the coalition of
votes necessary to win a crowded primary
Cruz has the most complete portfolio of campaign assets

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE

with a terrible campaign almost won.
Romney lost by only 428,000 votes in just five states:
Ohio 103,000
Florida 70,000
Colorado 113,000

New Mexico 76,000

Nevada 66,000

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE

with a terrible campaign almost won.
He was the one man on the planet who could not use ObamaCare as a
wedge issue
Romney HAD NO WEDGE OR MAGNET ISSUE to turn out the voters
he needed
Social media amateurs
Campaign manager could not harness the power of data analytics for
message creation, message targeting, and performance evaluation
NO GROUND GAME Moderates dont attract block-walkers
Terrible performance with Hispanics

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE

with a terrible team almost won Florida.
In 2012, 49% of the states Cuban Voters supported Obama while 47%
supported Romney
Bush won 75% and 78% of the Cuban Vote in 2000 and 2004.
Obama carried Florida by only 70,000 votes
There are 1,400,000 Cubans in Florida
Cuban Cruz would have only needed 66% of the Cuban vote in order to have
won Florida

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE

with a terrible campaign lost Ohio due to record
African-American turnout.

African-American Voter Participation increased 50% with Obama

In 2012 African-Americans made up 15% of Ohio Voters and they went 96% for
Obama

In 2004, African-Americans made up 10%

Black population is flat to declining, roughly 12.1% of Ohios total population

Assuming that African-American support for the Democratic candidate had

reverted the 2004 levels results in a vote swing of 193,648 Republicans would
have won

Hillary will have to drive African-American turnout 25% over 2004 levels to win
Ohio

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE

with a terrible campaign managed to lose Virginia.

Since 2000, African-American citizen voting-age population actually shrank

from 20% to 18.7% in Virginia by 2012

Likewise, since 2000, the Hispanic share of potential voters also shrank from 3.4%
to 2.5% by 2012

Yet Romney managed to generate a turnout rate among non-Hispanic whites

(66.4%) that was not only lower than among African-Americans (69.5%), but lower
than among Hispanics (71.9%)

If African-American turnout just reverts to 2004 levels (54.8%) and nothing else
changes the Republican presidential nominee will win the state in 2016

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE

with a terrible campaign did not win New Mexico because his
Vermont based Campaign Czar did not understand Hispanics.

46% of state is Hispanic

Romney lost New Mexico, who has a Republican Governor, by 10 points or

81,000 votes

Romney only captured 21% of the Hispanic vote compared with Bush, who got
40% in 2004

Romneys disgraceful performance was hurt further by the fact that New Mexico
former Governor, Gary Johnson, ran as a Libertarian garnering 3.5%

Rafael Ted Cruz can achieve George Bush totals giving him 62,000 additional
Hispanics, while the Democrats lose 62,000, would more than offset Romneys
81,000 loss margin

IN 2012 A TERRIBLE CANDIDATE

with a terrible campaign did not win Colorado because his
Vermont based Campaign Czar did not understand Hispanics.

Hispanics made up 14% in 2012 and expected to make up 15% in 2016

Romney only received 23% of Hispanic vote versus 40% for Bush in 2004

Cruz achieving Bush numbers with Hispanics and turning out Republicans makes
Colorado, who just elected a conservative Senator, a very achievable target

Cruz would still need to turn out additional married, white people in order to carry
state

Cruz positioned to do well with the Libertarians in the state

Looking to 2016

242

296

Hillary 2016 Strategy

MAKE THE RACE ABOUT HISTORY, NOT HER
Hold on to as many African-American voters as she can
Increase turnout amoung single women to offset reduction of African-American
vote and potential losses with Hispanics

Republican Must Dos for 2016

Perform better with Latino voters in Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and
Nevada - Target George Bushs average of 40% (he got 56% in Florida)
Shrink the gender gap that has increased to 4% favoring women
Turn out white, married people over the age of 40 by focusing on wedge issues
and targeting evangelicals

Republicans win with wedge and magnet issues

that drive their voters to turnout
Reagan 1980: The Economy and National Security
Bush (Atwater South Carolina Conservative) 1988:
Willie Horton/Flag Burning *A+

Bush (Baker Establishment Republican) 1992: No Wedge Issue

Bush 2000: Gay Marriage, Restore Honor and Dignity to the White House
Midterms 2010: ObamaCare
Midterms 2014: ObamaCare/Immigration

Every Senator in 2014 ran as a Ted Cruz Republican

Moderate Candidates are Losers

More Conservative

GW Bush (2000)"
GW Bush (2004)"
Reagan (1980)"
Reagan (1984)"
McCain (2008)"
Romney (2012)"
GHW Bush (1988)"

GHW Bush (1992)"

Ford (1976)"
Dole (1996)"

0"

12"

23"

35"

46"

= winning campaign

Rove won for Bush by driving Evangelical turnout Now he loses by doing the opposite
Exception was when Bush 41 ran as a hard conservative in 1988 with Atwater and Reagans help

58"

The Establishment Never Learns

Operate under the Media-created myth that moderates win elections
Give away through candidate selection key wedge and magnet issues that are
must-haves in order to drive turnout and win
Successful Wedge Issues in the past have been:
- Willie Horton/flag burning in 1988
- Gay Marriage, Restoring Honor to the White House in 2000
- ObamaCare in 2010 and 2014
In 2012 they chose the one man on the planet who could not take advantage
of the most effective wedge issue: ObamaCare

The Establishment Never Learns

For 2016 they have chosen, Jeb Bush. The one person on the planet that
forfeits Republicans on every Hillary wedge issue:
- National Security
- Immigration
- Future Not Past
- Common Core

- Foreign Money

Ted Cruz is the only leading candidate

who has a consistent/strong record
on the top Clinton wedge issues
Common
Core

Immigration

Future
Not Past

National
Security

Foreign
Money

NO

NO

CRUZ
BUSH

NO

NO

NO

HUCKABEE

NO

NO

PAUL

NO

RUBIO
WALKER

NO

NO

NO

Immigration and Common Core Very Important

White Vote Shrank in 2012

Evangelicals are not voting

Number
of
# of Evenfelloel Voters
% of Eleotorete
#of CVAPEvangelicals
# of Evangelical Voters who

sta ed tiome

22.1
million
21%
74.5
million
52.4
million

Evan euca I
Voters

25.7 million
21%
79.4 million
53.7
million

30.2 mill
ion
23%
83.2
million
53
million

29.7
million
23%
86.7 million
57
million

In 2004 Rove drove conservative and religious

voter growth to new highs but that progress
slowed and stopped
-0.1

POPULATI
ON

. .
..

0.3
-0.4

-0.5

-0.6

..
.
.CONSERVATIVES.. .
.
..: ../.............
..... .
.
.
.
: ...........
.:
.
:
.
.

..
.

l
.: ..
RELIGIOUS.

........

'04

'08

'12

.
'96

The only time Republicans got

more of the popular vote since 1988.

WHERE WE ARE
TODAY

GOP NOMINATION CONSIDERATION II

METHODOLOGY
! 739 autodial phone interviews
conducted nationwide among likely
Republican primary voters
! Conducted May 15-16, 2015
! Margin of error is +/- 3.6%
! Comparative data results pulled
from February 2015 polling

OF NOTE
!

This is a baseline study of Republican

primary voter attitudes. The Republican
field and attitudes of primary voters are
dynamic and we fully expect the underlying
structure of the electorate to continue
evolving in the coming months.
Successful vote coalitions among the early
primary and caucuses may likely only
require 20-40% support.
This survey was conducted by TargetPoint
Consulting for its own use and was not
conducted on behalf of any candidate or
associated organization.

CANDIDATE AWARENESS AND

CONSIDERATION

CANDIDATE AWARENESS
Please rate each candidate on a 7-point scale. Press 1 if you would almost certainly vote for that candidate. Press 2 if you would
strongly consider supporting that candidate. Press 7 if you would almost certainlynever vote for that candidate. Press 6 if it is unlikely you would
ever support that candidate. Press 4 if you are completely neutral. However, you can use any number from
1-7 to rate these candidates.If you dont know the candidate well enough to rate them, Press 9. Those who selected 1-7 for a candidate were
considered Aware, while those who selected 9 were considered Not Aware.
1-7 Aware

Total
February
Awareness

9 Not Aware

94

JEB BUSH

MIKE
HUCKABEE
RAND PAUL

94

91

92

90

10

89

CHRIS CHRISTIE

86

14

89

MARCO RUBIO

86

14

85

TED CRUZ

84

16

80

DONALD TRUMP

84

17

RICK
PERRY
RICK SANTORUM
SCOTT WALKER
BEN CARSON

19

86

81

19

83

75

26

75

75

25

70

70

LINDSEY
GRAHAM
BOBBY JINDAL
CARLY
FIORINA
JOHN KASICH

82

30

69

32

66
57

35
43

69
50
59

CANDIDATE CONSIDERATION
Please rate each candidate on a 7-point scale. Press 1 if you would almost certainlyvote for that candidate. Press 2 if you
would strongly consider supporting that candidate. Press 7 if you would almost certainlynever vote for that candidate. Press 6 if it is
unlikely you would ever support that candidate. Press 4 if you are completely neutral. However, you can use any number from 1-7 to
rate these candidates.If you dont know the candidate well enough to rate them, Press 9.
1 Certainly Consider

2-3 Consider

22

MARCO RUBIO

18

33

MIKE HUCKABEE

18

32

15

6
6

26

RICK SANTORUM

26

CHRIS CHRISTIE

CARLY FIORINA

*Chart order is by total 1-3 consideration.

13

17

16

52

11

11

3.90

3.88

17

4.08
4.42
4.09

35

3.31
3.80

13
11

16
45

3.51

22

59

29

12

13

18

3.01

3.48

12

39

2.99

12

13
15

Mean
Scores

3.57

46

15

15

10

38

20

DONALD TRUMP

14

26

31

15

37

23

13

31

31

7
5

24

34

RICK
PERRY
BOBBY JINDAL

JOHN KASICH

21

29

11

RAND PAUL

37

33

19

BEN CARSON

7 Certainly Not Consider

24

29

JEB BUSH

TED CRUZ

5-6 Not Consider

39

24

SCOTT WALKER

LINDSEY GRAHAM

4+9 Neutral

4.00
4.91

22

4.63

HIGHEST CONSIDERATION V. AWARENESS

Unannounced Candidates

Comparing the total awareness of each candidate to their 1-3 consideration score we
see candidates who have higher awareness and popularity overall (Bush, Rubio,
Huckabee, Paul, and Cruz) and we see that a group clustered toward the bottom left
quadrant that are less unknown.

Announced Candidates

Rubio

71%

Walker

71%

Carson

64%

Cruz

57%

Huckabee

55%

Bush

54%

Paul

50%

Jindal

46%

Perry

45%

Santorum

40%

30

Kasich

39%

20

Fiorina

38%

Christie

34%

Trump

24%

Graham

23%

100

WELL-KNOWN LESS POPULAR CANDIDATES

WELL-KNOWN TOP CHOICES

Paul

Bush
Huckabee

Christie
Trump
Perry
Santorum

90
80

Graham

Rubio

Cruz
Walker

Jindal

70

Carson

Fiorina
60

Total Awareness %

CONSIDERATION
CONVERSION RATE

Kasich
50
40

10
LESS KNOWN/UNDERPERFORMING

POPULAR LOWER-RECOGNITION

0
0

10

20

30

40

50

Total Consideration % 1-3

*Announced/Unannounced candidates are listed based on current status at the time of the poll and does not account for
candidates with end of May and June planned announcements

60

70

*Conversion rate was calculated by

dividing the total consideration (1-3)
score by total awareness 1-7.

COMPARED CONSIDERATIONS
Below is the total consideration (1-3) for each candidate from our February poll and our current May poll.

61
58
54

53

54
51

51 50

48

47 47
43 44

43

43
37
34 33

35
32

33
29
25
23 22
20

FEBRUARY
MAY

16

Rubio

Walker

13

0
Bush

Huckabee

Cruz

Carson

Paul

Perry

Jindal Santorum Christie Fiorina

*not included in February Poll

Kasich

Trump* Graham*

CHANGE IN CONSIDERATION
Below is the change in consideration(1-3) for each candidate from our February poll to our May poll.

FIORINA

+12

RUBIO

+7

CRUZ

+5

PAUL
CARSON

-4

-5
-6

+1
0

-1

HUCKABEE

-1

JINDAL

-1

KASICH

-3

BUSH

-3

SANTORUM
CHRISTIE
WALKER
PERRY

*Lindsey Graham and Donald Trump were not included in February Poll

CANDIDATE PREFERENCES
Generally speaking
what type of
candidate do you
prefer nominating?
29

FEBRUARY
Social Conservative

Do you think that the Republican nominee, if elected president,

should reach out to Democrats and work to find
reasonable compromises to get things done, or should
they try to lead on strong conservative principles and not
compromise, even if things dont get done in the short-run?

MAY

28
24

Mainstream

25
20

Tea Party

16
14
Could Support Any

Stand by
principles

44

Get Things
Done

56

15
5

Libertarian

6
8
Unsure

In our February poll, the party was

split on this issue.

ISSUE PREFERENCES
How would you describe your views in the
area of social/fiscal issues?

30% of Republican primary voters

are both very socially and very
fiscally conservative.
70% are both socially conservative
and fiscally conservative.
16% are socially moderate or liberal
and fiscally conservative.

51
41
32

34

17
FISCAL

SOCIAL

12

Very
Cons

5
Somewhat
Cons

Moderate

2
Somewhat
Lib

1
Very
Lib

17
#

UPDATED POLITICAL CLUSTERING

Below is the politicalbreakdown of our designated clusters. The dotted circles represent the
clusters from our February polling and the red circles represent where the clusters are now.

16%

Since our February Poll, we no longer

Percentage of cluster that is both

very fiscally and socially conservative

Social
Conservatives

see a cluster of mainstream

conservatives. Our February group of
establishment voters has fragmented into
what we show as mainstream
moderates and pragmatic partisans.
We have also seen the equilibrium of

16%
Tea Party

17%
Undecided
Conservatives

the party move slightly less

conservative and more pragmatic.

8%
Dissatisfied

14%
Uncommitted
Moderates

Percentage of cluster that chose get things done

Bubble sizes represent relative size of each cluster.

19%
Pragmatic
Partisans

10%
Mainstream
Moderates

POTENTIAL GROWTH
We looked at each candidates total consideration score (1-3) and
subtracted their derived ballot score to show the potential growth of each
candidate. Below are the current and potential ballot results.
Current Derived Ballot

MARCO RUBIO

SCOTT WALKER

TED CRUZ

MIKE HUCKABEE

JEB BUSH

Potential Growth

52
44
43
41
40
39
38

11

BEN CARSON

RAND PAUL

35

RICK PERRY
BOBBY JINDAL

32
30
26

RICK SANTORUM
CHRIS CHRISTIE

CARLY FIORINA

25
20
18

JOHN KASICH
DONALD TRUMP
LINDSEY GRAHAM
*Candidates are rank ordered by potential growth.

16

BALLOT AND NOMINEE TYPE

We looked at the top derived ballot scores based on voter preference for a particular nominee:
social conservative, mainstream, tea party, any, or libertarian candidate. Below are each of their top 6
choices and the number of undecided voters based on these nominee types.

Social Conservatives

Mainstream

HUCKABEE

12

BUSH

BUSH

11

RUBIO

WALKE
R

10

HUCKABEE

CARSON

RUBIO

CRUZ

UNDECIDED

32

Tea Party

19

11

Could Support Any

14

CRUZ

CARSON

WALKE
R

PAUL

CARSON

CARSON

HUCKABEE

CHRISTIE

RUBIO

24

UNDECIDED

27

12

BUSH

10

WALKE
R

CARSON

HUCKABEE

CHRISTIE

PAUL

RUBIO

BUSH

23

PAUL

11

WALKE
R

UNDECIDED

17

RUBIO

11

WALKE
R

Libertarian

UNDECIDED

34

UNDECIDED

32

TED HAS REAL

GROWTH POTENTIAL
WITH EVANGELICALS
AND LIBERTARIANS.

THIS PRIMARY IS
REALLY DIFFERENT.
Schedule is significantly different than past years favors more conservative
candidate
The first 14 states (through Super Tuesday) have 574 delegates (83%) that will
come from conservative states
At least six well-funded candidates making it very difficult for Establishment to
destroy the conservative challenger

The Calendar leans

SOUTH
DELEGATES THROUGH SUPER TUESDAY

Sou
th
Nor
th
Tot
al

47
7

69/o

216

31
/o

693

The Calendar leans

RIGHT
DELEGATES THROUGH SUPER TUESDAY

Conservativ
e
Moderat
e
Tota
l

507

731
0

186

271
0

693

The Calendar leans

CRUZ

A number of well-financed candidates

Historically, the Establishment Candidate uses his financial resources to destroy the leading
challenger who has already been weakened by the other challenger candidates.

TED IS
WELL-POSITIONED
TO WIN THE
PRIMARY.

Cruz has been consistently right on the issues

that matter most to primary voting blocs.
BUSH

HUCKABEE

CRUZ

PAUL

RUBIO

WALKER

EDUCATION
/ COMMON CORE

IMMIGRATION

SOCIAL / RELIGIOUS
ISSUES

STRONG NATIONAL
DEFENSE
DEFICIT / GOVT
SPENDING

OBAMACARE

SECOND
AMENDMENT

Sources: "
https://www.conservativereview.com/2016-presidential-candidates"
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJNBCpoll05042015.pdf "
"

http://www.ontheissues.org/Jeb_Bush.htm "
http://www.ontheissues.org/Scott_Walker.htm "

Cruz campaign has the most

complete portfolio of Assets
Small Dollar
Donors

Large Super
PAC

Social Media
Followers

Grass Roots
Support

NO

NO

Sophisticated
Data Analytics

CRUZ
BUSH

HUCKABEE

NO

PAUL

NO

NO

RUBIO

WALKER

Cruz in best position to run an Obama caliber

campaign in 2016

A proven data-driven infrastructure that is a small dollar fundraising and voter ID

juggernaut. Eight full-time data scientists on staff.

Raised $10 million from 90,000 donors in the first 100 days of campaign

Campaign managed by great executives not people who can write and produce TV
commercials

Creative/Messaging Team led by one of the worlds premier firms hired by the
Establishment to rebrand the Party - They want to work with Ted. The creative minds
behind the Salvation Army Campaign, Chick-fil-A, Home Depot, Paul Harvey I am a
farmer Superbowl ad

Cruz in best position to run an Obama caliber

campaign in 2016
Cruz has set a new standard for social media for Republicans both in the quantity
of
follower but just as importantly the effectiveness of the interactions.
Has 8 million email addresses

Grassroots organization is nationwide not just Iowa the only candidate even close is
Paul

Great communicator that can appeal to young people

Ted showing great strength

in must-win South Carolina
Straw Poll Results
Greenville

Anderson County

Spartanburg

Aiken

Dorchester

Cruz

28%

27%

32%

36%

30%

Bush

5%

1%

N/A

N/A

N/A

Carson

9%

1%

N/A

N/A

16%

Graham

3%

6%

N/A

N/A

4%

Huckabee

3%

9%

N/A

N/A

N/A

Paul

3%

1%

7%

6%

7%

Rubio

8%

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Walker

22%

25%

30%

32%

25%

Greenville and Spartanburg victories are most impressive as they are two
largest and most populated GOP counties in the state

Enhancing Cruz Brand

A powerful biography comes out in late June
Associated book tour
Richards Group hired along with a team of branding experts

Keep the Promise rolls out a positive campaign in key primary states around
the first debate
Real upside potential - Ted is polling very low with Evangelicals as many are
unaware of his deep faith

3 of the Top 10 Donors on Ted Cruz

Top Individual Donors to Conservative Super PACs 2012
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Donor
Adelson, Sheldon & Miriam
Simmons, Harold
Perry, Robert
RickeEs, John
Mercer, Robert
Thiel, Peter
Childs, John
Perenchio, A Jerrold & Margaret
Rowling, Robert
McNair, Robert

Total Given
$91,780,000
$25,665,000
$23,450,000
$13,050,000
$5,409,354
$4,735,000
$4,225,000
$4,100,000
$3,635,000
$3,175,000

To elect a principled conservative, donors cant

wait until November or December to decide
Television rates start to skyrocket in December making it impossible for
candidates to define themselves and their views so therefore are defined by the
Media
By January there is limited space at any price
In September the major news organizations will decide which reporters will
cover which candidates the stronger the candidate is with money is the key
factor to get the most well-known reporters which translates into earned
media
Fundraising success breeds fundraising success
The competition for grassroots leaders is intense and fundraising momentum
is a key driver

CAN
HE
WIN?