Professional Documents
Culture Documents
OVERVIEW
Krishnan Balasubramaniam
MOTIVATION
COURSE OUTLINE
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
COURSE OUTLINE
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
COURSE OUTLINE
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
COURSE OUTLINE
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
COURSE OUTLINE
Week 13
Week 14
PROJECT PRESENTATIONS.
Week 15
PROJECT PRESENTATIONS
ADVANCED NDE
WEEK 1
Relevance of NDT in industries, Basic methods of NDE
INSTRUCTOR: Krishnan Balasubramaniam
CAN WE DO THIS???....Always??
Reliability
Productivity
Dimensional Measurements
What
Flaws
Material Properties
Process Properties
Structural Properties
&
WHY?
Improve Safety
Increase Performance
Residual Life
Assessment
Enhance Productivity
Re-engineering
Security Information
Cracks
Voids
Corrosion
Delamination
Disbonds
Material Variations
Detect
Locate
Characterize
Size
Evaluate Criticality.
Nondestructive Evaluation
Excitation
Source
Input Transducer
Test
Specimen
Output Transducer
Signal
Conditioning
Inverse
Model
Methods of NDT
Visual
Visual Inspection
Most basic and common
inspection method.
Tools include
fiberscopes,
borescopes, magnifying
glasses and mirrors.
Radiography
The radiation used in radiography
testing is a higher energy (shorter
wavelength) version of the
electromagnetic waves that we
see as visible light. The radiation can
come from an X-ray generator or a
radioactive source.
X-ray Generator
or Radioactive
Source Creates
Radiation
Radiation
Penetrate
the Sample
Exposure Recording Device
Coil's
magnetic field
Eddy current's
magnetic field
Eddy
currents
Conductive
material
Ultrasonic Imaging
High resolution images can be produced by plotting signal strength or
time-of-flight using a computer-controlled scanning system.
Inspection Following
Secondary Processing
Machining
Welding
Grinding
Heat treating
Plating
etc.
Inspection For
In-Service Damage
Cracking
Corrosion
Erosion/Wear
Heat Damage
etc.
Probe
Signals produced
by various
amounts of
corrosion
thinning.
Cameras on long
articulating arms
are used to inspect
underground
storage tanks for
damage.
Aircraft Inspection
Nondestructive testing is used
extensively during the
manufacturing of aircraft.
NDT is also used to find cracks
and corrosion damage during
operation of the aircraft.
A fatigue crack that started at
the site of a lightning strike is
shown below.
Rail Inspection
Special cars are used to inspect
thousands of miles of rail to find
cracks that could lead to a
derailment.
Bridge Inspection
The US has 578,000
highway bridges.
Pipeline Inspection
NDT is used to inspect pipelines
to prevent leaks that could
damage the environment. Visual
inspection, radiography and
electromagnetic testing are some
of the NDT methods used.
Special Measurements
Boeing employees in Philadelphia were given the
privilege of evaluating the Liberty Bell for damage using
NDT techniques. Eddy current methods were used to
measure the electrical conductivity of the Bell's bronze
casing at a various points to evaluate its uniformity.
New World
Affordable
and
Reliable
Inspection
Rapid
Inspection
IMPROVED
FLAW
DETECTION,
LOCATION,
SIZING
FLAW
DETECTION,
LOCATION,
SIZING
NDE for
Manufacturing
Structural
Health
Monitoring
NDE for
Measurements
Advanced NDE
Week 1
Mechanics, Statistics, and Probability
Basics for NDE
Stress Levels
Material Properties
(Crack Growth Parameters,
Fracture Toughness)
Fracture
Mechanics
Flaw Size
Remaining Life
y , y
u , uts
f , % RA
n
r, r
Fracture
KIC
CVN
Fatigue
C
m
Remaining life
Creep
Creep strain parameters
CAUTION
Distributions
Probability
Bayes Theorm
Statistics is...
a standard method for...
- collecting, organizing, summarizing,
presenting, and analyzing data
- drawing conclusions
- making decisions based upon the
analyses of these data.
used extensively by engineers (e.g.,
quality control)
53
56
Sample Mean
1
x
n
x
i 1
Where:
x is the sample mean
xi are the data points
n is the sample size
57
Population Mean
1
x
i 1
Where:
is the population mean
xi are the data points
N is the total number of observations in the
population
58
Mode continued
Example of a grade distribution with
mean C, mode B
25
20
15
10
5
0
F
60
62
Standard Deviation
63
Standard Deviation
Population
Sample
1
N
2
(
x
)
i
Variance = 2
i 1
Deviation
n
1
2
s
( xi x )
(n 1) i 1
Variance = s2
64
N versus n-1
n-1 is needed to get a better estimate of the
population from the sample s.
65
A Valuable Tool
Gauss invented standard deviation circa 1700
to explain the error observed in measured star
positions.
Today it is used in everything from quality
control to measuring financial risk.
66
Frequency Distribution
67
F (x j )
f (x )
x j xi
F ( x) f(x)dx
-
f(x)dx
dF ( x)
f ( x)
dx
68
For
continuous
random
variable
N
1
sx
( xi x ) 2
( N 1) i 1
Note
i
N
( x 2 ) Nx 2 i 1
N
i 1
N
N
1
2
2
sx
(
x
2
x
x
x
)
i
i
( N 1) i 1
i
N
N
(2 xi x ) 2 x xi 2 Nx 2 2 i 1
N
i 1
i 1
N
i
n
2
x
i 1
i
N
s x i 1
N 1
N
Nx
i 1
N 1
69
1
x
N
( f x )
i 1
sx
i 1
f i xi
2
f i xi i 1
N
N 1
i 1
f i xi Nx 2
2
N 1
f i wi i 1
Fi
( f j wj )
2
j 1
71
Sx
Cx
x
x X ( x , S x ) x X (1, C x )
72
Example 1
Five tons of 2-in round rod of 1030 hot-rolled steel
has been received for work piece stock. Nine
standard-geometry specimens have been
machined from random locations in various rods.
In the report, the ultimate tensile strength was
given in kpsi.
Find the mean, the standard deviation, and the
coefficient from the sample, such that these are
best estimates of the parent population (the stock
your plant will convert to product)
73
Sut
x2
62.8
3 943.84
64.4
4 147.36
65.8
4 329.64
66.3
4 395.69
68.1
4 637.61
69.1
4 774.81
69.8
4 872.04
71.5
5 112.25
74
5 476.00
S611.8
S41 689.24
1 9
611.9
x
xi
N i 1
9
x 67.98kpsi
n
2
x
N
x
i
2
sx
i 1
N 1
41689.24 9 * 67.982
sx
3.543kpsi
9 1
S x 3.543
Cx
0.0521
x 67.98
74
Example 2
The data in Eg. 1 have come to the designer in
the histographic form. Using the data in this
form, find the mean, standard deviation and
the coefficient of variation
75
Class
Class
f.x
midpoint frequency f
x
63.5
2
127
f.x2
66.5
133
8 844.50
69.5
208.5 14 480.75
72.5
145
Total
613.5 41 912.25
76
8 064.50
10 513.50
1
x
N
613.5
( f i xi )
68.17 kpsi
9
i 1
2
f i xi
n
2
2
i 1
613
.
5
f i xi
41912.25
N
9
i 1
sx
N 1
9 1
s x 3.391kpsi
N
S x 3.391
Cx
0.0497
x 68.17
77
z x / x
Area = 1.00
1
z2
2
e
f ( x)
x 2
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-4.0
78
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
80
Z-transform
Excel
z x /
=STANDARDIZE(x,mean,stddev)
Example:
=STANDARDIZE(85,75,10) gives 1.0
82
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
Excel
=NORMSDIST(z)
2.0
3.0
4.0
Example:
=NORMSDIST(1.0)
=0.8413
83
Example
=NORMDIST(85,75,10,true)
= 0.8413
84
Inverse Problem
Given , and probability, find x
=NORMINV(prob,mean,stddev)
Given probability, find z
=NORMSINV(prob)
Note: The probability is the area under the curve
from minus infinity to x (or z)
85
Inverse Problem:
Example 1
A batch of bolts have length =5.00 mm, =0.20 mm.
99% of the bolts are shorter than what length?
Solution 1:
=NORMINV(0.99,5,0.2) gives 5.47 mm
Solution 2:
=NORMSINV(0.99) = 2.33
5.00+0.20*2.33 = 5.47 mm
86
Example
In a shipment of 250 connecting rods, the
mean tensile strength is found to be 45 kpsi
and the standard deviation 5 kpsi.
Assuming a normal distribution, how many
rods can be expected to have a strength less
than 39.5 kpsi?
How many are expected to have a strength
between 39.5 and 59.5 kpsi?
87
p= f(z59.5)- f(z39.5)=0.99813-0.1357=0.86243
250* 0.862 43=215.5; about 215 rods are
between 39.5 and 59.5 kpsi
89
x LN x , x
y ln x
y N y , y
90
x has a lognormal
distribution, after
transforming to y, y
has normal
distribution
2 y
e
g(x)
x y 2
x0
g(x) 0, x 0
1 2
y ln x ln 1 C ln x C x
2
2
x
y ln 1 C x2 C x
91
92
Example 2.4
One thousand specimens of 1020 steel were
tested to rupture and the ultimate tensile
strengths were reported as grouped in Table
etc
Class
Frequ xi*fi
midpoint ency
fi
xi
xi2*fi
Observ Normal
ed PDF density
fi/(Nw) f(x)
Lognor
mal
density
g(x)
56.5
113.0
6 384.5
0.002
0.0026
1 000
63 625
4 054 864
1.00
93
0.0035
1
x
N
63625
( f i xi )
63.625kpsi
1000
i 1
2
f i xi
n
2
2
i 1
63625
f i xi
4054864
N
1000
i 1
sx
N 1
1000 1
s x 2.594kpsi
N
Sx
2.594
Cx
0.0408
x 63.625
94
Treated as normal
distribution
Example 5
1 x 63.625 2
exp
2 2.594245
f(x)
x0
2.594245 2
y ln x ln 1 C x2
y ln 63.625 ln 1 0.040782 4.1522
y ln 1 C x2 ln 1 0.040782 0.0408
1 ln x 4.1522 2
exp
2 0.0408
Lognormal
g(x)
x 0 distribution
0.0408 x 2
95
Distribution Parameters
Scale Parameter
The scale parameter is the most common type of parameter. All distributions in this
reference have a scale parameter. In the case of one-parameter distributions, the sole
parameter is the scale parameter. The scale parameter defines where the bulk of the
distribution lies or how stretched out the distribution is. In the case of the normal
distribution, the scale parameter is the standard deviation.
Shape Parameter
The shape parameter, as the name implies, helps define the shape of a distribution.
Some distributions, such as the exponential or normal, do not have a shape parameter
since they have a predefined shape that does not change. In the case of the normal
distribution, the shape is always the familiar bell shape. The effect of the shape
parameter on a distribution is reflected in the shape of the pdf.
Location Parameter
The location parameter is used to shift a distribution in one direction or another. The
location parameter, usually defines the location of the origin of a distribution and can be
either positive or negative. In terms of lifetime distributions, the location parameter
represents a time shift.
97
Location Parameter
Realistically, the calculation
of a negative location
parameter is indicative of
quiescent failures (failures
that occur before a product
is used for the first time) or
of problems with the
manufacturing, packaging
or shipping processes.
98
100
Exponential Distribution
f(x) e
( x )
101
x0
Example 7
A round bar subject to a bending load has a
diameter d=LN(2.000,0.002) inch
This equivalency states that the mean
diameter is 2.000 in and the standard
deviation is 0.0002
Find the mean and the standard deviation of
the second moment of area
102
Linear Regression
Regression
Obtaining a curve that best fits a set of data points
If the best fitting is a straight line, it is linear
regression
y mx b
yi mxi b i
i yi y
103
Linear Regression
104
i yi mxi b
2
d
d
0,
0
dm
db
N xi yi xi yi
m
2
2
N xi xi
m xi
N
y m x
105
x y Nx y
x Nx
i
i
2
Correlation Coefficient r
sx
r m
sy
sm
s y. x
x x
sb s y. x
1
x2
N xi x 2
y m x y
y
b
i i i i
2
s y. x
N 2
106
r=0, no
correlation,
r=1 or 1
perfect
correlation.
Negative
sign means
negative
slope
Example 8
A specimen of a medium carbon steel was tested in
tension. With an extensometer in place, the specimen
was loaded then unloaded, to see if the extensometer
reading returned to the no-load reading, then the next
higher load was applied.
The loads and extensometer elongations were reduced to
stress and strain, see the data
Find the mean Youngs modulus and its standard
deviation. Since the extensometer seems to have an
initial reading at no load, use y=mx+b
107
Data
5033
10 068
15 104
20 143
35 267
0.000 20
0.000 30
0.000 50
0.000 65
0.001 15
Worksheet
x2
xy
y2
5033
0.000 20
0.04E-6
1.006 600
25 330 089
0.130E-6
0.002 80
2.125E-6 65.229
2.004E9
0.556E-6
( x x )2
Summation
85615
108
N xi yi xi yi
N xi xi
2
565.229 0.002885615
2
50.000002215 0.0028
31.03E 6 psi E
y
m xi
N
254.69 psi
109
sx
3162163E 4
r m
31.03E 6
0.998
sy
11601.11
s y. x
2
i
b yi m xi yi
N 2
52
811.1 psi
sm
s y. x
x x
811.1
0.000000558
1.086 E 6 psi
110
111
In LE:
Looking at the next word in a text
Having your system perform a certain task
114
(ELEMENTARY) OUTCOMES
The results of an experiment:
In a coin toss, HEAD or TAILS
In a race, the names of the horses involved
Or if we are only interested in whether a particular
horse wins: WIN and LOSE
In LE:
When looking at the next word: the possible
words
In the case of a system: RIGHT or WRONG
115
EVENTS
Often, we want to talk about the likelihood of
getting one of several outcomes:
E.g., with dice, the likelihood of getting an even
number, or a number greater than 3
SAMPLE SPACES
The SAMPLE SPACE is the set of all possible outcomes:
For the case of a dice, sample space S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
117
Probability Functions
The likelihood of an event is indicated using a
PROBABILITY FUNCTION P
The probability of an event E is specified by a
function P(E), with values between 0 and 1
P(E) = 1: the event is CERTAIN to occur
P(E) = 0: the event is certain NOT to occur
Probabilities and
relative frequencies
In the case of a die, we know all of the possible outcomes ahead of time,
and we also know a priori what the likelihood of a certain outcome is. But
in many other situations in which we would like to estimate the likelihood
of an event, this is not the case.
For example, suppose that we would like to bet on horses rather than on
dice. Harry is a race horse: we do not know ahead of time how likely it is
for Harry to win. The best we can do is to ESTIMATE P(WIN) using the
RELATIVE FREQUENCY of the outcome `Harry wins
Suppose Harry raced 100 times, and won 20 races overall. Then
P(WIN) = WIN/TOTAL NUMBER OF RACES = .2
P(LOSE) = .8
119
Joint probabilities
We are often interested in the probability of TWO events
happening:
When throwing a die TWICE, the probability of getting a 6 both
times
The probability of finding a sequence of two words: `the and
`car
We use the notation A&B to indicate the conjunction of two events,
and P(A&B) to indicate the probability of such conjunction
Because events are SETS, the probability is often also written as
We use the same notation with WORDS: P(the & car)
P( A B)
120
121
122
Conditional probability
Conditional probability is DEFINED as follows:
P( A & B)
P( A | B)
P( B)
Intuitively, you RESTRICT the range of trials in
consideration to those in which event B took place,
as well (most easily seen when thinking in terms of
relative frequency)
123
Example
Consider : Horse has won in rain 15 times. The
season is 100 days and it has rained on 30 days.
Where:
This gives:
0.15
P(WIN | RAIN )
0.5
0.3
124
Independence
Additional information does not always help. For example, knowing
the color of a dice usually doesnt help us predicting the result of a
throw; knowing the name of the jockeys girlfriend doesnt help
predicting how well the horse he rides will do in a race; etc. When
this is the case, we say that two events are INDEPENDENT
The notion of independence is defined in probability theory using
the definition of conditional probability
Consider again the basic form of the chain rule:
P(A&B) = P(A|B) P(B)
We say that two events are INDEPENDENT if:
P(A&B) = P(A) P(B)
P(A|B) = P(A)
126
Bayes theorem
Suppose youve developed an Information Retrieval
system for searching a big database (say, the Web)
Given any search, about 1/100,000 documents is
relevant (REL) i.e. P(REL) =0.00001
Suppose your system is pretty good:
P(YES|REL) = .95
P(YES| REL) = .005
Bayes Theorem
Bayes Theorem is a pretty trivial consequence of the
definition of conditional probability, but it is very useful
in that it allows us to use one conditional probability to
compute another
We already saw that the definition of conditional
probability can be rewritten equivalently as:
P(A&B) = P(A|B) P(B)
P(A&B) = P(B|A) P(A)
P( A | B) P( B)
P( B | A)
128 P ( A)
0.95 0.00001
0.002
0.95 0.00001 0.005 0.99999
129
130
131
132
133
134
Outline
135
136
Reference: Grandt
Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008
137
138
139
140
This 1969 failure of a new F-111 aircraft was caused by an undetected forging defect
that quickly grew to failure by fatigue in the high-strength steel wing pivot fitting
structure.
Reference: Grandt
Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008
141
142
143
Reference: Grandt
Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008
144
Reference: Grandt
Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008
145
Outline
146
147
Nature of Inputs
Probabilistic
Deterministic
Normalized stress intensity function at critical locations
Fatigue crack growth curve
148
Damage Tolerance for High Energy Turbine Engine Rotors, Federal Aviation
Administration Advisory Circular AC 33.14-1, ANE-110 (January 8, 2001).
Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008
149
150
151
Outline
152
Determination of POD
153
Reference: Rummel
154
Reference: Rummel
155
Reference: Rummel
156
Reference: Rummel
157
NumberDetected
POD
Total Number
Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008
158
Challenges
Want high confidence (resolution in POD)
How confident are you that a POD estimate based on particular
experiment is close to the correct answer?
Resolution in POD improves when number of samples
increases
159
Reference: Rummel
160
Reference: Rummel
161
A Parametric Approach
Assume a model between test POD and size
Use data to determine parameters of model
Two variations
Hit/miss data
Flaw response data ( versus a)
For each flaw, record response () and size (a)
More information than hit/miss
More precise estimates (narrower confidence bounds)
162
Reference: Rummel
163
Obtain and plot data of log (flaw response) versus log (flaw size),
known as a a-hat versus a
Perform a linear regression
When distribution about regression line is normal, POD determined
by:
Mean
Standard deviation
Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008
164
Threshold
Reference: Annis
165
166
Outline
167
Reference: Rummel
168
169
170
171
172
173
http://www.cnde.iastate.edu/MAPOD/
Short Course - QNDE for Pipes_July 2008
174
MAPOD Strategy
175
MAPOD Example
mc
CRACKS
crack response
Flat Plate
bc
NOTCHES
notch response
crack depth
Crack
Response
Notch
=
Response
10
10
mcxc + bc
mnxn + bn
mn
bn
Complex Geometry/Notch
nothc depth
POD
POD
Variability Data
Complex Geometry/Notch
Notch size
Crack size
176
Outline
177
178
http://www.cnde.iastate.edu/MAPOD/
179
MAPOD Strategy
180
Ultrasonic testing
Interferometry
Thermography
X-Ray Imaging
Eddy current
1 mm
Macroscopic defects
Cracks
Pores
Inclusions
Thickness loss
Adapted from Mayendorf et. Al.
1 m
Micro defects
Initial corrosion pits
Micro cracks
Micro pores
1 nm
Microstructure
Grain boundaries
Precipitations
Voids
Materials Characterisation
Is Failure Predictable ?
Step 3: Prognosis
FEA
(Specimen level)
Damage Analysis
VALIDATION
Predicted Damage
Measured Damage
No
Application to
Component
Courtesy: Dr. Vikas Kumar, DMRL, Hyderabad
No
Yes
Good Comparison
?
Prognosis Benefits
SUMMARY
NDE has a very WIDE and CRITICAL role in the industry.
NDE improves productivity and safety.
Understanding the physics, capabilities, and limitation
of different modalities on NDE is key to best practices
in the industry.
Probability and Statistics play a very key role in
providing realistic expectations from NDT.
Theoretical Models may go a long way.
NDE plays a key role in the Prognosis of Critical
Components, however, only when understood in
conjunction with other key partnering technologies
including Materials Science, Modeling, Mechanics, etc.