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ECON 330: Econometrics

Fall Semester 2015-2016


Course Outline
Muhammad Farooq Naseer
Office: 244 (Extn: 8073)
Email: farooqn@lums.edu.pk
Office Hours: Mon-Wed 12:15-1:15 PM
Description

This is the second course in the statistics/econometrics sequence and looks


at the broad range of estimation problems that often arise in economic
applications. In particular, we look at the criteria used to select a particular
estimation method and the scenarios under which the OLS estimator
becomes sub-optimal. The purpose of this course is to teach students the
basics of econometric theory and also to give them hands-on experience
with using a statistical package Stata, which will be helpful in later
applications especially for those students who choose to do an empirical
senior project.

Goals

On successful completion students will:


be able to develop a suitable regression model for a variety of empirically
interesting problems and validate the selected model via a battery of tests
be able to compare different estimators based on their finite sample and
asymptotic properties
develop a basic understanding of time series econometrics and be able to
handle and make use of panel data
be proficient in the use of Stata for econometric analysis

1.
2.
3.
4.
Prerequisites

<Probability AND Statistics> OR <Statistics and Data Analysis>;


Microeconomics 1 Or Principles of Microeconomics; Macroeconomics 1
Or Principles of Macroeconomics
Text Book

Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. 2006. Introductory Econometrics. 3rd edition.


Thomson South-western.

Reference Texts
1. Kohler, Ulrich and Frauke Kreuter. 2012. Data Analysis using Stata. Stata
Press.
2. Banerjee, Abhijit V., and Esther Duflo. 2011. Poor Economics: A Radical
Rethinking of the Way to Fight Global Poverty. Public Affairs.
3. Hamilton, Lawrence C. 2006. Statistics with Stata. Thomson Brooks/Cole.
4. Levitt, Steven D., and Stephen J. Dubner. 2009. Freakonomics: A Rogue
Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything. Harper Perennial.

Lectures
Two lectures of 100 minutes plus one 50-minute lab session (led by the TAs)
per week. The course outline below refers to sections from your textbook.
Relevant sections of the textbook are included in your course reading package
and the reference texts may be obtained from the Library.
Online Resources
To learn STATA you may use:
http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/
STATA illustrations for all our text book examples are at:
http://fmwww.bc.edu/gstat/examples/wooldridge/wooldridge.html
The power-point slides for the book are also available at:
http://www.swlearning.com/economics/wooldridge/wooldridge2e/powerpoint.html

Grading
Assignments (6)
Project
Quizzes (5)
Final

20%
15%
30%
35%

Course Policies
Quizzes: There will be four announced in-class quizzes, which will take place through
the semester. There will be one announced in-lab quiz towards the end of the term.
Lab Attendance: Attendance in the labs is highly recommended and we will be taking
attendance during each lab session. Anyone who does not arrive within the first 15
minutes of the lab will be marked as absent from that lab. An individual who is absent in
more than THREE labs will be given a grade of zero in one of his highest scoring lab
assignments.
Lab Submission: Students are encouraged to work on the assignments in groups of 2-3
students. However, the submission of assignment is to be done individually by each
student in their own handwriting. There will be group grading of assignments (an
individuals assignment from within a group will be picked randomly for grading and the
same grade will be assigned to the entire group for that lab). Please note that it is possible
under this grading scheme for all group members to get zero even if one group member
does not submit the assignment (or its correct solution). This is to improve learning by
encouraging discussion within groups while also ensuring that everyone gets to do the
assignment. Please note that sharing or discussing assignments with anyone outside your
own group is NOT allowed and makes grounds for a disciplinary action. Group formation
is voluntary but some groups may need to be adjusted.
Project: The objective of the project is to provide you an opportunity to apply the skills
you learn in class to a real world application. Several data sets will be made available to
students for this purpose. The project would require you to pick a data set from this
collection and write a short paper based on your analysis. The project grade will be
determined on the basis of an intelligent use of this data to address the research question
and an appropriate interpretation of results. Like the labs, the project would be group-

based and we may conduct vivas from any of the group members. Students are
encouraged to discuss their project with me (during office hours) or with their TAs.
Missed Quizzes/Assignments: As per the rules of the Student Handbook, students must
contact the instructor with a petition form and valid supporting documents either before
or within three days of missing an instrument. The decision on such petitions will be
made on a case-by-case basis and may involve grade deduction before assigning the
students quiz average. Under ordinary circumstances, there will be no make-up for
missed assignments.
Instrument Grading: All the course instruments are checked as thoroughly and fairly as
possible and the process consumes a lot of your TAs and instructors time. Therefore,
and to ensure uniformity in grading across all students, there will be no ad-hoc
adjustment of marks ex-post. While we encourage student queries meant to improve
learning, please note that your TAs are not authorized to change your marks once an
instrument has been graded.

Detailed Course Outline


Sr.
No.
1

Topic

Readings

Weeks

Introduction
What is econometrics?
Steps in empirical economic analysis
The structure of economic data; random sampling
Simple Regression Model
Deriving the OLS estimates
Algebraic properties
Deriving statistical properties: mean and variance
Multiple Regression: Estimation
[[Causality and Marginal effects]]
Mechanics and Interpretation of OLS
Classical Linear Model Assumptions
The Gauss-Markov Theorem
Properties of OLS Mean and Variance

Ch1. 1.1, 1.2, 1.4

1.5

Ch.2.1, 2.2, 2.4


Appendix B
Ch. 3

Topics in OLS:
Effects of Data Scaling: 6.1
Functional Form: 6.2
Goodness-of-Fit and Model Selection: 6.3
Functional form mis-specification: 9.1
3

Multiple Regression: Inference


Sampling Distribution of the OLS estimators
The t-test testing a single restriction
Confidence Intervals
Testing multiple restrictions
Multiple Regression Analysis: OLS Asymptotics
Law of Large Numbers and Central Limit Theorem

1.5

Ch. 4

Ch. 5;
Appendix C

Consistency
Asymptotic Normality and Large Sample Inference
4

Functional Form and Dummy Variables


Dummy independent variables
Using dummy variables for multiple categories
Interactions using dummy variables
Dummy dependent variable

Ch. 7

More Topics in OLS


Prediction and Residual Analysis: 6.4
Missing Data, Outliers: 9.4

Ch. 6.4, 9.4

0.5

Heteroskedasticity
Consequences of Heteroskedasticity
Robust inference
Testing for heteroskedasticity
Weighted Least Squares

Ch. 8

Instrumental Variable Estimation and 2SLS


Correlation between X and error; Omitted variable
bias (3.3); OLS under measurement error (9.3);
Using Proxy Variables for Unobserved Explanatory
Variables (9.2); IV estimation and the 2SLS; Testing
for endogeniety and over-identifying restrictions;
Simultaneous Equation Models
The nature of simultaneous equation models;
simultaneity bias in OLS; Identifying and estimating
a structural equation (vs. reduced form); systems
with more than two equations
Regression with Time Series Data
Nature of time series data; Examples of TS models;
Finite sample properties of OLS under GaussMarkov assumptions; Functional form, dummy
variables, index numbers; Trends and seasonality;
Panel Data Models
Pooling independent cross-sections across time; twoperiod panel data; differencing with more than two
time periods: fixed-effects estimation; randomeffects models; grouped data; policy analysis
(difference-in-difference and panel estimation)
Limited Dependent Variable Models and Sample
Selection
Logit and Probit models for binary response;
[Depending on time: the Tobit model for cornersolution responses; Censored and Truncated
regression;] Sample selection corrections

Ch 3.3, 9.2, 9.3,


15.1-15.5;

Ch 16.1-16.3

0.5

Ch. 10

Ch 13.1-13.5;
14.1-14.3

1.5

Ch 17.1-17.5
(excl. 17.3)

10

11

* The readings are all from the Wooldridge textbook unless otherwise indicated

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