EarthquakeHazardsProgram

Documentation
SeismicHazardMapsforPuertoRicoandtheU.S.VirginIslands
C.S.Mueller,A.D.Frankel,M.D.Petersen,andE.V.Leyendecker
U.S.GeologicalSurvey,Golden,CO

Introduction
WepresentresultsofanewprobabilisticseismichazardassessmentforPuertoRicoandtheU.S.VirginIslands(PRVI).Thestudy
area(Figure1)islocatedalongtheboundarybetweenthenortheasternCaribbeanSeaandtheAtlanticOcean,attheintersectionofthe
GreaterandLesserAntillesIslandchains.TheseislandsdemarcatetheboundarybetweentheNorthAmericanandCaribbeantectonic
plates,withtheNorthAmericanplatemovingwestsouthwestwardrelativetotheCaribbeanplateataratedeterminedfromGPS
geodesyof19.4mm/yr(Jansmaandothers,2000).WestofPRVIthetwoplatesmovealongtypicaltransformstructures(theeast
weststriking,leftlateralOrienteandEnriquilloPlantainGardenfaults,andrelatedstructures).SoutheastofPRVItheNorthAmerican
platesubductswestwardbeneaththeCaribbeanplate,formingatypicalvolcanicislandarc(thenorthsouthtrendingLesserAntilles).
PlateinteractionnearPRVI,incontrast,occursina250kilometerwide,eastwesttrendingzoneofcomplextranspressional
deformation,delimitedbythePuertoRicoTrenchinthenorthandtheMuertosTroughinthesouth.PuertoRicoandtheVirginIslands
lieonashallowsubmarinebankwithinthiscomplexdeformationalzone.
TheregionishometoapproximatelyfourmillionUnitedStatescitizens,andhasalonghistoryofdestructiveearthquakes.Historical
recordsshowthatmajorearthquakeshavestruckPRVIseveraltimesduringthepast500years,althoughthelocationsandsizesof
eventsthathaveoccurredmorethanafewdecadesagoarepoorlyknown.MajorearthquakeshavedamagedPuertoRicoin1520,
1615,1751,1776,1787(magnitude~8.0,thoughttohaverupturedtheplateinterfacesouthofthePuertoRicoTrench,offshore
northernPuertoRico),1867(~7.3,AnegadaPassage,offshoresoutheasternPuertoRico),1918(~7.5,MonaPassage,offshore
northwesternPuertoRico),1943(~7.7,plateinterface,offshorenorthwesternPuertoRico),and1946(~8.0,plateinterface,northeastern
Hispaniola)(e.g.,McCann,1985DolanandWald,1998).The1867and1918earthquakeswereaccompaniedbydestructivetsunamis.
SeismicitynearPRVIisprimarilyrelatedto:1)highlyobliquesubductionoftheNorthAmericanplatebeneaththeterranesoftheplate
boundaryzonealongthemainplateinterfacesouthofthePuertoRicoTrench,and2)theinteractionsofseveralprobablemicroplates
withinthecomplexboundaryzone.GeodesyandseismicitydatasuggesttheexistenceofaPuertoRiconorthernVirginIslands
microplatethatisrelativelyrigidandseismicallyquiescentinternally(MassonandScanlon,1991Jansmaandothers,2000).Mostof
themajorseismogenicsourcesareconcentratedoffshorethus,estimatesofactivityratesonspecificstructurescanbehighly
uncertain,oftenbasedonindirectevidencesuchasseismicitypatternsandfocalmechanisms,bathymetryandshallowseafloor
seismicimagery,regionalgeodesy,kinematicreasoning,andtectonicanalogs.TheGreatNorthernandGreatSouthernPuertoRico
faults,majorleftlateralstrikeslipsystemsactiveonPuertoRicofromtheearlyCretaceoustotheearlyMiocenearenowconsidered
largelyquiescent,althoughtheyseemtobeassociatedwithverysmallearthquakes,andmayrepresentinheritedzonesofweakness
(McCann,1985).Prenticeandothers(2000)havedeterminedarecurrencerateforonefaultonshoresouthwesternPuertoRicothat
theyconsidertobecurrentlyactiveseveralothercandidatefaultshavebeenidentifiedinwesternPuertoRico,butnotyetevaluated
paleoseismically.
Seismicsourcesrelatedtodeformationalongthemainplateboundaryinclude:megathrustfaultingalongtheplateinterface,southward
deepeningintraslabfaultingwithinthesubductingNorthAmericanplate,andstrikeslipfaultingalongseveralstructuresthatstrike
subparalleltothePuertoRicotrenchnorthandnorthwestofPuertoRico(Figure1).TheseincludetheSeptentrionalfault,themajor
plateboundarystructureincentralHispaniola,whichextendseastwardacrossthenorthernMonaPassagetowardPuertoRico,andthe
socalledNorthandSouthPuertoRicoSlopefaultzonesandrelatedstructures.Sourcesrelatedtomicroplateinteractionsincludetwo
broadzonesofroughlyeastwesttectonicextension,onewestofPuertoRicoroughlycoincidentwiththeMonaPassage,andone
southeastofPuertoRicoroughlycoincidentwiththeAnegadaPassage.Extensionwithinthesezonesisthoughttoberelatedto
differencesinratesofeastwardmotion(relativetoNorthAmerica)ofcrustalblockssouthofthemainplateboundary(e.g.,McCann
andothers,1987Jansmaandothers,2000):theCaribbeanplatemoveseastwardrelativelyunrestricted,whileblockswithinthe
boundaryzonearerestrictedbyrelativelyhighstandingtectonicfeaturesliketheBahamaBankandMainRidge(Figure1).As
discussedabove,weincludeoneterrestrialfault,theSouthLajasfaultonshoresouthwesternPuertoRico(Prenticeandothers,2000),
inthehazardmodel.
WeapplytheprobabilistichazardmethodologydevelopedbytheU.S.GeologicalSurvey(USGS)asdescribedbyFrankelandothers
(1996,2002),andpresentmapsofprobabilisticgroundmotions:peakgroundacceleration(pga),1.0secondspectralresponse,and
0.2secondspectralresponse,with2%and10%probabilityofexceedancein50years,correspondingtoreturntimesofapproximately
2500and500years,respectively.LikeothersintheUSGSseismichazardseries,thesemapswillbeusedinearthquakemitigation
andresponseplanning,andderivedengineeringdesignmotionmapswillbeconsideredforadoptininfutureupdatesofbuildingcodes
andotherstructuraldesignstandards(Leyendeckerandothers,2000).TheUSGSmethodologyisbasedprimarilyon1)griddedand
smoothedhistoricalseismicity,generalizedusingexponentialmagnitudedistributionswithregionallydeterminedbvalues,and2)
specificfaultsourceswithpublishedsliprateorrecurrenceinformation.Wherethereisreasontosuspectthattheseismicityorfault
componentsofthemodelareincomplete,theycanbesupplementedwithsourcesbasedongeodeticorotherdeformationdata.
Earthquakesareassumedtooccurrandomlyintimetheprobabilisticgroundmotionsrepresenttimeindependentseismichazard.
SpecificcomponentsofthePRVIhazardmodel(Figure2)include:griddedandsmoothedhistoricalseismicity(momentmagnitude
greaterthanorequalto4.5,19632001)dividedintofourdepthranges,megathrustfaultingalongthemainsubductioninterfacesouthof

thePuertoRicotrench,MonaPassageandAnegadaPassageextensionalzoneswithseismicactivityratesdeterminedfromGPS
geodesy,theSeptentrionalfault,theSouthPuertoRicoSlopefault,andtheSouthLajasfault.Becausesomesourcesoverlap
spatially,magnituderangesinthemodelareadjustedtoavoiddoublecountinghazardcontributions.LikeLaForgeandMcCann(2003),
weexcludetheNorthPuertoRicoSlopefaultzonefromourmodelbecauseitislocatedmorethan100kmfromthenorthshoreof
PuertoRicoandonlyafewkilometerssouthofthedeformationfrontofthesouthdippingPuertoRicoTrench(Figure1)subduction
interface(alsoDolanandWald,1998).WeexcludetheMuertosTrough(Figure1)andrelatedstructuresoffshoresouthernPuertoRico
fromourmodelbecausetheirratesofactivityareverypoorlyknown.(WenotethatLaForgeandMcCann,whoincludethesestructures
intheirmodel,suggestthatratesofactivityonthesestructuresmustbelowincomparisonwithothermodelcomponents,andagree
withthemthattheirproximitytothesouthcoastofPuertoRicomakesthemimportanttargetsforfutureresearch.)
AlternativegroundmotionpredictionrelationsforauniformNEHRPB/Cboundary(Vs30=760m/s)siteconditionareincludedusinga
logictreeformalism.Fortheshallowseismicity,extensionalzone,andcrustalfaultsources,weuseamixofrelationsforcrustal
earthquakesderivedfromwesternNorthAmericanandworldwidedata.Forthedeepseismicityandsubductionsources,weuseamix
ofintraslabandinterplaterelations,respectively,derivedfromworldwidedata.(Specificgroundmotionrelationsarediscussedbelow
foreachhazardmodelelement.)AnewgroundmotionrelationrecentlydevelopedfromCaribbeandatabyMotazedianandAtkinson
(2003)(M&A)isincludedfortheshallowseismicity,extensionalzone,andcrustalfaultsources.(Roughly2/3oftheearthquakesin
theirdatasetareshallowerthen50kmtheydonotdistinguishbetweenshallowanddeepseismicityintheirrelation,butweuseitfor
crustalsourcesonly.)WeadjusttheirrelationforNEHRPB/Cboundarysiteconditionsusingfactorscalculatedfromequationsin
Booreandothers(1997).Geologically,onemightexpectgroundmotionattenuationtobelowerinPRVIthaninwesternNorthAmerica,
butweareconcernedthathighfrequencygroundmotionsfromthenewrelationaremuchhigherthanthosefromcomparablewestern
NorthAmericanrelations(seetheDiscussionbelow).PendingfurtherevaluationofthenewM&Arelation,itreceivesroughlyonehalf
theweightgiventomoreestablishedrelationsinthegroundmotionrelationlogictree.
Withasitegridspacingof0.05degreeinlatitudeandlongitude,wecomputehazardcurvesforapproximately16000siteswithinthe
areamappedinFigure2.

CatalogandGriddedSeismicity
Auniformseismicitycatalogisconstructedfromfoursourcecatalogs:
1. AcompilationbyEngdahlandVillasenoroflarge,carefullyrelocatedglobalearthquakes(calledEVhere,downloadedfromftpsite
ciei.colorado.edu/pub/user/engdahl/Handbook/CENT.CAT).
2. TheInternationalSeismologicalCentreglobalcatalog(ISC,downloadedfromtheUSGSNationalEarthquakeInformationCenter).
3. TheUSGSPreliminaryDeterminationofEpicentersglobalcatalog(PDE,downloadedfromtheUSGSNationalEarthquake
InformationCenter).
4. ThePanamericanInstituteofGeologyandHistorycatalog(IPGH,downloadedfromthewebsiteoftheMiddleAmericaSeismograph
Consortium:midas.upr.clu.edu/mdsipgh.html).
Awareofwelldocumentedpastproblemswithmagnitudedeterminations(e.g.,LaForgeandMcCann,2003),wechoosenottoinclude
datafromthelocalPuertoRicoSeismicNetworkcatalog.Thefoursourcecatalogsarereformatted,concatenated,andchronologically
sorted.WeremoveduplicatesanddependenteventsgenerallyfollowingtheapproachdescribedbyMuellerandothers(1997):
duplicatesareremovedusingtheaboveorderofsourcecatalogpreference,andaftershocksandforeshocksareremoved(inorderto
insurethestatisticalindependenceoftheearthquakesusedinthehazardanalysis)usingthealgorithmofGardnerandKnopoff(1974).
OurfinalPRVIcatalogisjudgedtobecompletedowntomomentmagnitude4.5from1963to2001,andcontains15EVevents,354
ISCevents,137PDEevents,and20IPGHevents.
Thecatalogisdividedintofoursubcatalogsbydepth:050km,5080,80120,andgreaterthan120.Spatialrelationshipsofthedeeper
than50kmhypocenterssuggestthattheseearthquakesareprimarilyassociatedwith(locatedwithin)thesouthwardsubductingNorth
Americanplate.Theseismicitydata,bothshallowanddeep,areconsistentwithabvalueof1.0(whichissubsequentlyappliedforall
hazardmodelelements).10avaluegridsarecomputedforeachsubcatalog(Weichert,1980)andspatiallysmoothed(usingatwo
dimensionalGaussianfunctionwitha50kmcorrelationdistanceforthe050kmdeepseismicity,anda30kmGaussianforthedeeper
seismicity).Thesegridsareusedtocomputethehazardcontributionfromseismicityfordistancerange0to200kmandmoment
magnituderange5.0to7.0.(ForgridcellsthatfallwithintheMonaandAnegadaextensionalzones,themaximummagnitudeforthe0
50kmseismicityisreducedfrom7.0to6.5toavoidoverlappinghazardcontributionsseebelow.)Forthe050kmseismicityweuse
thenewM&Agroundmotionrelationplusfourwellestablishedrelationsforshallowcrustalearthquakeswithcoefficientsforreverse
oblique(oraveragedreverseslip/strikeslip)faulting:Booreandothers(1997)forVs30=760m/s,Sadighandothers(1997)forrock,
CampbellandBozorgnia(2003)adjustedforVs30=760m/s,andAbrahamsonandSilva(1997)forrock.Thelatterfourrelationswere
usedforthenonextensionalwesternUSinthe2002updateoftheUSGSnationalhazardmaps(Frankelandothers,2002).M&A
receives10%weightandeachoftheotherfour22.5%inthegroundmotionrelationlogictree.Forseismicitydeeperthan50kmwe
usetwointraplategroundmotionrelations:Youngsandothers(1997)andAtkinsonandBoore(2003)eachwithequal50%weight.
MapsofprobabilisticpgafortheshallowanddeepseismicitymodelsareshowninFigure3AandFigure3Brespectively.

SubductionZone
WesubdividethesubductioninterfacesouthofthePuertoRicotrenchintoPuertoRicoandHispaniolasegments(Figure2),generally
followingpublishedideasabouttectonicsegmentation,theestimatedsizesofpastmegathrustearthquakes,andregionalvariationsin
seismiccouplingalongthethrustinterface(e.g.,Frankelandothers,1980DolanandWald,1998LaForgeandMcCann,2003).Inour
model,thrustinterfaceearthquakesonthePuertoRicosegmentaremodeledascharacteristicfloatingmagnitude7.9ruptureswith
190yearrecurrencetimes,correspondingtoapproximately20%seismiccouplingforaGPSdeterminedsliprateof16.9mm/yr
betweenNorthAmericaandPRVI(Jansmaandothers,2000).ThrustinterfaceearthquakesontheHispaniolasegmentaremodeledas
characteristicfloatingmagnitude8.0ruptureswith200yearrecurrencetimes,correspondingtoapproximately80%seismiccoupling.
Historically,the1943northernMonaPassageand1946northeasternHispaniolaearthquakesrupturedthePuertoRicoandHispaniola

subductionsegments,respectively(DolanandWald,1998),andthegreatearthquakeof1787probablyrupturedthePuertoRico
subductionsegment(McCann,1985).Locationsoftheupdipanddowndipedgesoftherupturezonescorrespondtoplatetopdepthsof
10and40km,respectively.Weapplytwogroundmotionrelationsforthesubductionmodels:Youngsandothers(1997)andSadigh
andothers(1997),eachwith50%weightouttoacrossoverdistance(58km),beyondwhichtheYoungsrelationreceivesfullweight.
TheSadighrelation,developedfromcrustalearthquakedata,offsetsatendencyforrelationsbasedontheempiricalinterface
earthquakedatasetalonetounderpredictgroundmotionsatshortdistancesfromsimulatedlargethrustevents(Youngsandothers,
1997).MapsofprobabilisticpgaforthetwosubductionmodelsareshowninFigure3CandFigure3D.

MonaPassageandAnegadaPassageExtensionalZones
TheMonaPassagebetweenPuertoRicoandHispaniolacoincideswithabroadzoneofactivecrustalextension.Bathymetry,subsea
seismicimaging,andfocalmechanismdataareallsuggestiveofnormalfaultingongenerallynorthsouthtrendingstructuresandeast
westdirectedextension.OneofthelargestbathymetricfeaturesinthePassage,thenorthsouthtrendingMonaCanyon,isthoughtto
benormalfaultcontrolled,andwasprobablythesite(MercadoandMcCann,1998)ofamagnitude~7.5,tsunamigenicearthquakein
1918thatdamagednorthwesternPuertoRicowithlargelossesoflifeandproperty(LaForgeandMcCann,2003).Weassignarateof
eastwestextensionof5mm/yrbasedonrecentGPSgeodesyresults(Jansmaandothers,2000),assumeabvalueof1.0,and
proratefaultinguniformlyintoeachgridcellinthezone,usingthemethoddescribedbyFrankelandothers(1996)forcomputinghazard
fromarealzones.Thecorresponding10avaluegridsaresmoothedusingatwodimensionalGaussianfunctionwitha20kmcorrelation
distance,eliminatingthesharpzoneboundary.Thezoneshape(Figure2)issimilartothatsuggestedbyMcCann(1998).Italso
accountsforincreasedseismicityinsouthwesternPuertoRicothatisseeninsomemapsofsmallearthquakes(e.g.,LaForgeand
McCann,2003),butnotreflectedinourcatalog.Hazardiscomputedforthedistancerange0to200kmandmomentmagnituderange
6.5to7.5.(Forgridcellsthatfallwithin10kilometersofthetraceoftheSouthLajasfault,themaximummagnitudeisreducedfrom7.5
to7.0toavoidoverlappinghazardcontributionsseebelow.)Themodelpredictstheoccurrenceofamomentmagnitude6.5orgreater
earthquakeinthezoneaboutevery50yearsourcatalogcontainstwoM=6.5orgreaterearthquakesandnineM=6.0orgreater
earthquakessince1860,includingtheM~7.5eventof1918.Groundmotionsarecomputedwiththesamegroupoffiverelationsused
aboveforshallowseismicity,usingcoefficientsforstrikeslipfaulting,andaddingarelationfromSpudichandothers(1999)for
extensionaltectonicregimes.M&Areceives10%weight,andeachoftheotherfive18%inthegroundmotionrelationlogictree.
TheeastnortheaststrikingAnegadaPassage,offshoresoutheasternPuertoRico,coincideswithaseriesoffaultboundedbasinsand
azoneoftectonictranstensionwheredisplacementfromtheeasternendoftheMuertosTroughisthoughttobetransferredtothe
PuertoRicoTrench(e.g.,Jansmaandothers,2000).Theextensionalzonemayhavebeeninitiallyformedduringapreviousepisodeof
counterclockwiserotationofthePRVImicroplate,butcurrenttectonismisenigmatic,withnegligiblemovementbetweenGPSsiteson
St.CroixandVirginGordaconstrainingpossiblesliprates.Thezoneshape(Figure2)followsMcCann(1993)asextended
northeastwardbeyondtheVirginIslands(W.McCann,personalcommunication,2003).Jansmaandothersproposethatslipacross
thezonemustbelessthan2mm/yr.LaForgeandMcCann(2003)use2.4mm/yrforconsistencywiththerateassignedtotheMuertos
Troughsystemintheirmodel.Weassign1mm/yrofeastwestextensiontotheAnegadaPassagezone.Themodelpredictsthe
occurrenceofamomentmagnitude6.5orgreaterearthquakeinthezoneaboutevery300yearshistorically,theM~7.3earthquakeof
1867occuredintheAnegadaPassage.ThehazardanalysisissimilartothatdescribedabovefortheMonaPassageextensionalzone.
AmapofprobabilisticpgafortheMonaPassageandAnegadaPassagemodelsisshowninFigure3E.

EasternSeptentrionalfaultandSouthPuertoRicoSlopefault
TheSeptentrionalfaultsystemextendseastsoutheastward,subparalleltothePuertoRicoTrench,fromnorthernHispaniolatoward
PuertoRico(Figure2).Thistransitionalfeatureaccommodatesanincreasingpartitionofleftlateralstrikeslipmotionwithincreasing
distancewestofPRVI,untilitbecomesthemajorplateboundarystructureincentralHispaniola(e.g.,Prenticeandothers,1993,2003)
withupwardsof9mm/yrofslip.AmajorconcerninassessingtheseismichazardofPuertoRicoisestimatingtheimportanceofthe
easternreachoftheSeptentrionalfaultanditspossibleeastwardextensionacrossMonaCanyon,theSouthPuertoRicoSlopefault
zone.DeformationatthelongitudeofPuertoRicomaybetakenupalongotherstrikeslipstructuresthatliefarthernorth,closertothe
PuertoRicoTrench,suchastheNortheasternHispaniolaSlopefaultandtheNorthPuertoRicoSlopefaultzone(Grindlayandothers,
1997Dolanandothers,1998LaForgeandMcCann,2003U.tenBrink,personalcommunication,2003),structuresthatdonotposea
significantgroundmotionthreattoPuertoRico.Unfortunately,itisdifficulttoestimatetherelativeimportanceofthesestructures
directly.
TheeasternreachoftheSeptentrionalfaultapparentlyintersectsMonaCanyonnear67.5degreeswestlongitude,butdoesnotoffset
thecanyon,anditspossibleextensioneastofMonaCanyonisunknown.The350kmtotallengthofthefaultcorrelateswithmagnitude
8.0,usingtherelationsofWellsandCoppersmith(1994).Prenticeandothers(2003)findasliprateof9mm/yrincentralHispaniola
frompaleoseismicanalysis.LaForgeandMcCann(2003)argue,however,thatthesliprateandmaximummagnitudemustdecrease
alongtheeasternreachofthefault,anduseamagnitudeof7.3andasliprateof2mm/yrintheirmodel.Therearenodirectestimates
ofthesliprate,andabouttheonlyconstraintontheparametersrequiredfortheseismichazardcalculationistheobservationthatthere
havebeennomajorearthquakesassociatedwiththeeasternSeptentrionalfaulthistorically.InTable1weconsiderseveralend
memberrupturescenarios,andusethisweakconstrainttotesttheirplausibility.Recurrencetimesimpliedbythetwohighsliprate,
momentmagnitude7.3scenariosaretooshortthesurvivingfourscenariosarecombinedascharacteristicrupturesinalogictreewith
equal0.25weights.Groundmotionsarecomputedwiththesamegroupoffourrelationsusedforshallowseismicity,usingcoefficients
forstrikeslipfaulting.
Table1.Septentrionalfaultscenarios
MomentMagnitude

SlipRate(mm/yr)

ImpliedRecurrence(yr)

Comment

7.3

70

toofrequent

7.3

130

toofrequent

7.3

310

OK?

8.0

770

OK

8.0

1400

OK

8.0

3600

OK

EstimatesofthesliprateontheSouthPuertoRicoSlopefaultzonerangefrom9mm/yr(astheeastwardextensionofthe
Septentrionalfault)tozero(thetransversecomponentofdeformationisfullyaccommodatedalongstructuresfarthertothenorth).
LaForgeandMcCann(2003assignitasliprateof1mm/yrintheirmodel,butnotethatitmaybeinactive.The160kmtotallengthof
thefaultcorrelateswithmagnitude7.6,usingtherelationsofWellsandCoppersmith(1994).FollowingLaForgeandMcCann,weassign
asliprateof1mm/yr(correspondingtoarecurrenceof3900years),andusethesamesuiteoffourgroundmotionrelationsthatwere
usedfortheSeptentrionalfault.ThesensitivityofprobabilisticgroundmotionsinPuertoRicotothechoiceofsliprateontheSouth
PuertoRicoSlopefaultzoneisdiscussedbelow.

SouthLajasfault
Prenticeandothers(2000)havetrenchedtheeastweststrikingSouthLajasfaultinsouthwesternPuertoRico,findingevidencefortwo
surfacerupturingearthquakesinthelast7500years.The50kmtotallengthofthefault(LaForgeandMcCann,2003)correlateswith
momentmagnitude7.0usingtherelationsofWellsandCoppersmith(1994).Weincludethefaultinthehazardmodelasa
characteristicearthquakewithmomentmagnitude=7.0andrecurrencetime=3500years,usingthesamesuiteoffourgroundmotion
relationsthatwereusedfortheSeptentrionalfault.

Discussion
Mapsofprobabilisticpga,1.0secondspectralacceleration,and0.2secondspectralacceleration,includingthecontributionsfromall
modeledsources,foraprobabilityofexceedanceof2%in50years(approximately2500yearreturntime)areshowninFigure4,Figure
5,Figure6respectively.Correspondingmapsforanexceedanceprobabilityof10%in50years(approximately500yearreturntime)
areshowninFigure7,Figure8,andFigure9.
TherangeofprobabilisticgroundmotionsforPRVIisroughlycomparabletothatfoundintheBasinandRangeprovinceofthewestern
UnitedStates.LaForgeandMcCann(2003)conductaseismichazardanalysisforsitesatthefourcornersoftheislandofPuertoRico.
ForwesternPuertoRicoourpgavaluesagreewiththeirstowithin510%ForeasternPuertoRicoourpgavaluesaresystematically10
15%greaterthantheirs.WenotethestrongclustersofseismicitynearandnorthoftheVirginIslands(Figure3A,(Figure3B)thatare
strongcontributorstothehazardineasternPuertoRicoandtheVirginIslandsinourmodel(seebelow),whereasbackground
seismicityisdistributedintoauniformarealzoneintheLaForgeandMcCannapproach.Additionally,weuseamaximummoment
magnitudevalueof7.0forthesesources,insteadoftheir6.5.
ThesensitivityofourresultstothechoiceofsliprateontheSouthPuertoRicoSlopefaultzoneisexploredinFigure10Figure10.
Themapsshowprobabilisticpgafromallmodeledsources,comparing9mm/yr(440yearrecurrence)and1mm/yr(3900year
recurrence)characteristicscenariosfortheSPRSFZ.Nearthefault(upperleftcornerofeachmap)therearesignificantpga
differences,butclosersourcesdominatethehazardinPuertoRico,anddifferencestherearenegligible(note,forexample,the50%g
contourthatcutsacrossthenorthwestcoastoftheisland).
Figure11andFigure12explorethesensitivityofourresultstothechoiceofweightgiventotheMotazedianandAtkinson(2003)
relationinthegroundmotionrelationlogictree.Themapsshowprobabilistic0.2second(Figure11)and1.0second(Figure12)spectral
accelerationfromallmodeledsources,comparing50%and10%weightsfortheM&Arelation.Figure11showsmuchlarger0.2second
groundmotionsfor50%weightasmuchas60%largerinthesouthwesterncornerofPuertoRicowherethehazardisdominatedby
theMonaPassageextensionalzoneandSouthLajasfaultsources(seebelow),bothofwhichusetheM&Arelation.Fromageologic
pointofview,onemightexpectlowerattenuationinPRVIthanintectonicallyactiveCalifornia,butconcernovertheverylargehigh
frequencymotionsaccountsforthelowweightusedforM&Ainthefinalhazardmodelpendingfurtherevaluationoftherelation.
Figure12showsthat1.0secondgroundmotiondifferencesaresmall.
Figure13showshazardcurveswithcontributionsfromindividualmodelelementsforsixsites.AtSanJuan(Figure13A)forboth2%
and10%probabilityofexceedancein50years(PE50)shallowseismicity,deepseismicity,andthePuertoRicosegmentsubduction
account,aboutequally,foressentiallyallthehazard.AtMayaguez(Figure13B)andPonce(Figure13C)theMonaPassage
extensionalzonedominatesthehazard(increasinglyatlongerreturntimes),withsmallercontributionsfromshallowanddeep
seismicity.AtCharlotteAmalie,St.Thomas(Figure13D)shallowanddeepseismicitydominatethehazard,equallyat2%PE50,with
muchsmallercontributionsfromthePuertoRicosegmentsubductionandtheAnegadaPassageextensionalzone.AtChristiansted,
St.Croix(Figure13E)deepseismicitydominatesthehazard(moresoat10%PE50than2%PE50),withsmallercontributionsfrom
shallowseismicityandtheAnegadaextensionalzone.Finally,Figure13FshowspgahazardcurvesforapointinsouthwesternPuerto
RiconeartheSouthLajasfaultitscontributionequalsthatoftheMonaPassageextensionalzonefor2%PE50,anddominatesthe
hazardforlongerreturntimes,demonstratingtheimportanceoftargetingpossibleactiveonshorefaultsforfutureresearch.

ListofFigures

Figure01

Figure02

Figure03A

Figure03B

Figure03C

Figure03D

Figure03E

Figure04

Figure05

Figure06

Figure07

Figure08

Figure09

Figure10

Figure11

Figure12

Figure13A

Figure13B

Figure13C

Figure13D

Figure13E

Figure13F

Acknowledgements
WegratefullyacknowledgediscussionswithRolandLaForge,BillMcCann,CarolPrentice,ChristavonHillebrandt,GailAtkinson,
DariushMotazedian,SteveHarmsen,andC.B.Crouse.Wereceivedvaluableinputfromparticipantsoftheworkshoponseismicand
tsunamihazardsofPuertoRicoheldinSanJuaninMarch1999,andfeedbackonapreliminaryversionofthehazardmodelfrom
membersoftheTS1subcommitteeoftheBuildingSeismicSafetyCommissionchairedbyC.B.Crouse.Thefiguresinthispaper
weremadewiththeGenericMappingTools(GMT)software(WesselandSmith,1991).

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