THE KASHMIR HAZARA EARTHQUAKE AND ITS 1

IMPLICATIONS ON JHELUM THRUST ZONE

2

Mahdi, Syed Kazim & Muhammad Siddique 3

ABSTRACT
The devastating Kashmir Hazara earthquake struck the northern Pakistan, Azad
Kashmir and adjacent parts of Afghanistan and India on October 08, 2005. It was felt for
several minutes and heavy damages were recorded in the towns of Balakot, Mansehra and
Batagram in NWFP and Muzaffarabad, Bagh and Rawalakot in Azad Kashmir. In the
south it was felt as far as Lahore and Kalabagh. The most affected areas of Balakot (X-XI
on MMS) and Muzaffarabad (IX-X on MMS) lie in the axial region of tongue like
projection, where the rocks are under high stress/strain. At Mangla/Mirpur and Tarbela
the intensity was VII on MMS. Building collapses were also reported as far as Mansehra
and Islamabad.
Due to high release of stresses by the mega earthquake a number of tectonic
features got reactivated, including the Jhelum Thrust Zone (JTZ), which acts as an active
lateral ramp along the western limb of Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis (HKS). The thrust traces
extends from north of Muzaffarabad to near Jhelum towards south i.e. along the axis of
HKS. After the massive earthquake, the landslides, mudflows and uplifted, tilted and
deformed river traces are present along the JTZ from Balakot to Mangla. The SSP data
after the October 08, 2005 earthquake, indicate concentration of seismic activity, with
many earthquakes greater than M = 4.0, along the Jhelum river north of Mangla. The
seismicity is observed to align not only along the mapped portion of the JTZ, but also to
extend north and south of this mapped fault. On March 10, 2006 an earthquake measuring
5.3 on Richter scale was felt with Intensity V at Mangla. Around the epicenter, its
intensity was VII and was located at 33.19 N and 73.97 E, 20 km east of Mangla. The
Fault Plane Solutions (FPS) exhibited that the earthquake originated due to the seismic
activities along the JTZ. Many research studies, presence of active mudflows and
significant gap in the seismicity along the JTZ, suggest that major seismic activity is due
in the near future, which may affect the areas along the fault. In future construction of
structures in the Mirpur area must be according to the new Building Codes, being
computed by NESPAK. The future strain buildup, uplift rates, slip rates, recurrence
intervals, and seismicity along the JTZ need to be monitored continuously, in order to
avoid any human disaster. Dams and critical structures should be monitored through
seismic instruments.
Keywords: HKS, Jhelum Thrust Zone, Seismic Activity, Building Code, Monitoring.
1

International Conference on Earthquake Engineering, UET Lahore, Pakistan, September 8-9, 2006.
Deputy Director Seismology, Seismic Studies Program, WAPDA, Mangla, sspkazim@hotmail.com
3
General Manager (P&D), Water, WAPDA House, Lahore, Pakistan, gmpdw@lhr.paknet.com
2

1.0

INTRODUCTION

The Seismic Studies Program (SSP), WAPDA, Mangla located the mega event of
October 08, 2005, at shallow depth of 16.20 km. and measured its moment magnitude as
Mw = 7.7. The epicenter of this earthquake was computed at Lat. 34.45 N, Lon. 73.65 E,
about 22 km NE of Muzaffarabad and 95 km NE of Islamabad. The epicenter positioned
in one of the most tectonically complex regions of Himalaya (Figure-1).

The death toll due to this earthquake exceeded 85,000 people and millions were
rendered homeless due to collapse of houses. The earthquake was followed by a series of
more than four thousand aftershocks, over fifteen hundred of them with Mw greater than
4.0. The earthquake was caused by movements/rupture along Himalayan Frontal Thrust
(HFT), which is a northern most part of the Riasi Thrust, which in turn is a main branch
of MBT. Ground ruptures and landslides have been observed along this fault at many
places. Aftershocks data and distribution of damages indicates that more than 120 km of
this fault between Batagram and Bagh districts ruptured during the major earthquake. The
Fault Plane Solution (FPS) for the main shock shows predominant thrust motion.

Figure-2 FPS, Strike, Dip & Slip of Kashmir Hazara Earthquake

Landslides were a major secondary hazard due to the earthquake. The slides
varied from major slides to disrupted slides, which pose a fore most danger in future
earthquakes or during heavy rainfall. It is estimated that the landslides may have occurred
up to a distance of about 200 km from the epicenter.
2.0

LOCAL SEISMOTECTONIC SETUP

Northern parts of Pakistan and adjoining areas have their peculiar geological and
seismic conditions causing frequent occurrence of severe earthquakes. These areas have
remained under detailed study of several geoscientists/seismologists. A brief description
of main tectonic features in Figure-1 is given below:
2.1

Main Mantle Thrust (MMT)

Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) is a northward dipping regional thrust, which

separate the Indian Plate from the Kohistan Island Arc. It extends from Khar in the west
to the north of Naran in the east, where it takes a NE ward bend towards the east of Bunji
and gets truncated by Raikot Fault. The thrust inclines steeply near the surface; however,
this inclination is believed to decrease considerably with depth likewise as interpreted for
3

other local thrust faults of the region. Structurally the Main Mantle Thrust is
characterized by a number of northwest dipping high angle imbricate thrusts, which
converge together in the east. MMT is almost aligned sub-parallel to the MKT in the
north and MBT in the south.
2.2

Main Boundary Thrust (MBT)

The Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) is the main frontal thrust of Himalayan Range, which
runs along the Himalayan Arc for almost 2500 km from Assam in the east to Kashmir in
the west. MBT along with other associated thrusts forms a sharp conspicuous HKS bend.
This syntaxial bend is the most dominant tectonic feature of the area as all local major
fault systems and geologic structures follow its trend. On the west side of bend, the MBT
initially follows a rather SW trend and then extend westward. A number of large to major
earthquakes have occurred along Himalayan Arc east of the Hazara-Kashmir syntaxis
during the last two centuries, which places it amongst the most active regions of the
world. A lot of seismicity recorded during the last century is associated with surface and
subsurface extensions of MBT and other associated thrusts. Based on this data, Seeber et
al. (1981) have shown that great earthquakes occurring along Himalayan Arc are
probably related to slips taking place along this quasi-horizontal surface. Based on the
above, the MBT is considered active having seismic potential sufficient enough to
generate large to major earthquakes.
2.3

Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT)

Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT) is northwest-southeast dipping intra-formational

thrust fault which cuts across Miocene Molasse cover present at the core of HazaraKashmir Syntaxis. It is located in the frontal zone of Himalayan Fold Belt and most
probably an extension of the Riasi thrust, a main branch of MBT. The southern extension
of HFT from Muzaffarabad to Chikar Kas runs almost parallel to the Jhelum River while
remaining on its right bank. The northern extension of HFT continues in the northwest
direction from Muzaffarabad up to Balakot and north of Bana village in Allai valley.
Detailed neotectonic studies conducted along the Jhelum River and adjoining areas
upstream of Muzaffarabad revealed conclusive evidences concerning probable trace of
this thrust plane. Amongst these evidences include presence of nearly 100 to 300 meter
wide and deeply penetrating shear zone on the right bank of Jhelum River. Exceptional
wideness of the river valley in this reach also indicates presence of this shear zone.

2.4

Panjal Thrust

Panjal Thrust is an important active tectonic feature of regional significance. on the

western side of HKS it runs northwards and parallel to the Main Boundary Thrust. Both
the faults; while coming gradually closer to each other join together about 5 km north of
Balakot. A left lateral strike slip fault cuts across both the Panjal Thrust and MBT
approximately 6 km south of Balakot, from where onwards the Panjal Thrust continues
its independent journey southwards. It is traceable up to Garhi Habibullah from where it
gets concealed under the Quaternary deposits. The thrust comprises several segments
4

having accumulated length of about 130 km. Towards west the fault passes through
Gandghar range near Haripur and joins Khairabad fault located on the northern side of
Attock-Cherat range, hence it is sometimes referred as Punjal-Khairabad thrust.
2.5

Salt Range Thrust (SRT)

Salt Range Thrust (SRT) runs along the southern extremity of the Salt Range
between Jhelum and Indus Rivers. It is marked by thrusting of highly deformed old rocks
of the Salt Range over the relatively less deformed Tertiary Sequence of Jhelum Plains.
Irregular escarpments rise explicitly from the Plains; however, on the northern side
gently dipping strata merge into the Potwar Plateau. It is about 300 km long, having a
general trend in east-northeast direction. The fault segments exhibit considerable off-sets
at various locations. A significant part of SRT is covered by fanglomerates, while at
places near Jalalabad and Kalabagh the thrust trace is clearly visible where Paleozoic
rocks overlay the Neogene strata. In contrast to other parts of the frontal zones in
Pakistan, the Salt Range Thrust is marked by low level of seismic activity which is
mainly attributed to aseismic nature of underlying Cambrian Salt deposits.
2.6

Jhelum Fault

The Jhelum Fault is a north-east dipping strike-slip fault following the western
margin of HKS bend. Rocks belonging to Miocene, Cambrian and Pre-Cambrian periods
exposed along its trace are highly deformed due to recurring shear zones. Individual
blocks of Panjal Volcanics and Triassic limestones have been found dragged for several
kilometers southward. An accumulative left-lateral offset of about 31 km is indicated on
the western limb of the Syntaxis. It apparently dislocates from the Main Boundary Thrust
and terminates at the eastward continuation of some of the geological structures of North
West Himalayan Fold and Thrust Belts. These tectonic relationships indicate Jhelum
fault as the youngest major tectonic feature in the syntaxial zone. The fault is located at a
distance of about 50 km east of Islamabad. This fault was reported by original
researchers to extend along Jhelum River from north of Muzaffarabad to near Jhelum and
further southward to Chaj Doab area. During recent studies it was investigated whether
this fault extends southward up to Jhelum or not. Oil and Gas Development Company
Ltd. (OGDCL), has mapped a fault parallel to Jhelum River up to Palala Mallah, beyond
which it takes a southwest bend and extends parallel to other faults (Dil Jabba, Lehri) of
the area as a thrust fault.
3.0 THE SEISMIC CATALOGUE
The instrumental recording of earthquakes started in 1904. The number of seismic
stations remained small in South Asian region until 1960 when the installation of high
quality seismograph under World Wide Standard Seismograph Network (WWSSN)
increased the quality of earthquake recording. The Seismic Studies Program (SSP) of
WAPDA, Mangla, has prepared a comprehensive catalogue of earthquakes since 1960. It
has collected seismic data from the Mangla, Tarbela, USGS and ISC. Based on their
homogeneous tectonic and seismic characteristics the area around Mangla has been
divided into six seismic zones viz. MMT, MBT, Riasi, Hazara, Salt Range and Jhelum

Thrust Zone (JTZ). The data for each zone was complied for each zone through
FORTRAN IV computer program SEISMOTECTONIC, written by Mahdi et. al. in
2003. The data indicates a lot of seismic activity along the three seismic zones lying in
the NE portion of Mangla. The seismicity along JTZ, before the major earthquake of
October 08, 2005, shows a moderate behavior (Table-1).
TABLE-1
MAGNITUDE FREQUENCY DATA
JHELUM THRUST ZONE DURING 1960-2005*

Magnitude

Number Of
Seismic Events

Cumulative Number Of
Seismic Events greater than the
given Magnitude

Cumulative Number Of
Seismic Events/Year
(45 yrs period)

0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.2

1
2
6
5
14
7
10
14
12
16
22
24
33
39
49
69
42
49
43
40
37
45
41
48
33
28
32
25
27
19
16
18
16
15
7
10
9
10
7
5
9
7
7
8
5
3
1
0

985
984
982
976
971
957
950
940
926
914
898
876
852
819
780
731
662
620
571
528
488
451
406
365
317
284
256
224
199
172
153
137
119
103
88
81
71
62
52
45
40
31
24
17
9
4
1
0

21.888
21.866
21.822
21.688
21.577
21.266
21.111
20.888
20.577
20.311
19.955
19.466
18.933
18.200
17.333
16.244
14.711
13.777
12.688
11.733
10.844
10.022
9.022
8.111
7.044
6.311
5.688
4.977
4.422
3.822
3.400
3.044
2.644
2.288
1.955
1.800
1.577
1.377
1.155
1.000
0.888
0.688
0.533
0.377
0.222
0.088
0.022
0.000

5.3
5.4
5.5

0
0
0

0
0
0

0.000
0.000
0.000

* Data before the mega earthquake of October 08, 2005.

4.0

THE MARCH 10, 2006 JTZ EARTHQUAKE

For this study and to keep the earthquake locations accurate/homogenous the 10
km area on both sides of Jhelum fault is known as Jhelum Thrust Zone (JTZ). By
studying the instrumental seismic data (since 1960) along JTZ, a quiescence of
magnitude greater than 5.0 earthquakes is observed (Table-1). Seismicity is mostly
concentrated along the northern and southern portions of JTZ, while its central segment
shows significant gap in seismicity. However, during 1999 and 2000, south of
Muzaffarabad near tunnel, active mudflows occurred along the JTZ.
After the mega Kashmir Hazara earthquake of October 08, 2005 the landslides,
mudflows, and uplifted, tilted, and deformed river traces are observed along the JTZ from
Balakot to Mangla. The newly identified Ambore reverse fault runs parallel to the Jhelum
fault near Muzaffarabad. The Holocene river gravels are aligned parallel to the brittle
shear zone of the fault. The fault shows the Holocene (< 0.5 Ma) rupture. The successive
Holocene uplift along the Jhelum River and Ambore faults caused tilting of the upper and
lower Chatter river traces. Seismic data computed by SSP, WAPDA, Mangla seismic
network, indicate that the massive earthquake has reactivated the Jhelum and Ambore
faults. Within eight months of the massive earthquake more than 650 seismic events of
magnitude ranging from 1.5 to 5.3 were located along the JTZ. The seismicity is
observed to align not only along the mapped portion of JTZ, but also extends north and
south of this mapped zone.
On March 10, 2006 an earthquake measuring 5.3 on Richter scale was felt with
Intensity V at Mangla and VI in Mirpur. Around the epicenter its intensity was VII and
was located at 33.19 N and 73.97 E, just 20 km east of Mangla. In the epicentral area of
Afzalpur major cracks/collapses in buildings were reported. The Fault Plane Solutions
(FPS) exhibited that the earthquake originated due to the seismic activities along the JTZ.
It was followed by a series of aftershocks, five of them (M = 4.4, 4.5, 4.6, 4.6 and 4.8),
were felt in and around Mangla/Mirpur with maximum intensity of IV on MMI. Even on
June 02, 2006 an earthquake (M = 4.5) presenting a FPS like JTZ was felt around Mirpur
with Intensity IV and III at Mangla. This indicates strain buildup along the JTZ. The
presence of active mudflows after the massive October 08, 2005 earthquake, many
located events and significant gap in seismicity along JTZ, suggest that the major
earthquake (M = 6 to 8) can occur in near future. This earthquake will affect the areas
along the JTZ, from Muzaffarabad to Mangla/Mirpur and Salt Range/Kalabagh. The
future strain buildup, uplift rates, slip rates, recurrence intervals, and seismicity in the
areas along the JTZ, need to be monitored continuously in order to avoid major human
disaster like the October 08, 2005 earthquake. For this purpose the existing seismic
networks in the area need to be upgraded and more instruments may be installed along
future dams and allied structures. More Strong Motion Accelerographs (SMAs) may also

be got installed along existing and future critical structures. Most of the
commercial/residential structures in Mirpur/Mangla and surrounding areas along the JTZ
are not constructed according to Building Codes and there is an urgent need for the
preparation of proper Building Codes (BC).
5.0

STRONG GROUND MOTION AND ATTENUATION EQUATIONS

Strong Motion Accelerographs (SMA) are installed along dams and allied
structures to study the acceleration responses during earthquakes. The data is used for
safety monitoring of existing structures and at the same time modeling of same types of
future/proposed structures. The accelerographs are also installed along rock and alluvium
to develop attenuation equations. The attenuation relations are helpful in seismic hazard
analysis.
Table-2. Accelerations records on October 08, 2005.
Acceleration in g
SMA Location
Vertical Longitudinal Transverse Resultant
Abbottabad
0.087
0.231
0.197
0.316
Mirpur/Mangla
0.040
0.065
0.055
0.152
Tarbela
0.065
0.075
0.024
0.150
Diamer Basha Project
0.030
0.081
0.067
0.130
Ghazi (Barrage)
0.070
0.079
0.069
0.190
Attock (Power Complex) 0.061
0.074
0.070
0.120
Murree
0.069
0.078
0.075
0.128
In the Northern Pakistan some SMAs belonging to WAPDA and PAEC are
installed for study of acceleration response at different locations and structures. Table-2
gives the available acceleration records at various locations for the October 08, 2005
event. The acceleration is expressed in units of gravity g, which is equal to 9.81 m/s2.
Table-3. Computed values of Attenuation Equations.
Location

Krinitzsky

Dahle et al

Campbell

Schmidt

Ambraseys et al

Distance From Fault

(1988)

(1995)

(1997)

(1997)

(2005)

Stiff

Soft

Stiff

Soft

Stiff

Soft

Stiff

Soft

Stiff

Soft

Muzaffarabad (4 km.)

0.079

0.968

0.458

0.635

0.720

0.800

0.751

0.835

0.659

0.805

Balakot (10 km.)

0.078

0.964

0.345

0.478

0.471

0.548

0.531

0.591

0.486

0.594

Abbottabad (39 km.)

0.073

0.903

0.160

0.221

0.124

0.155

0.210

0.234

0.194

0.237

Islamabad (98 km.)

0.056

0.692

0.079

0.110

0.031

0.040

0.094

0.104

0.094

0.115

Attock (140 km.)

0.046

0.563

0.057

0.079

0.017

0.023

0.065

0.072

0.071

0.087

Mirpur (140 km.)

0.046

0.563

0.057

0.079

0.017

0.023

0.065

0.072

0.071

0.087

Mangla (145 km.)

0.042

0.558

0.052

0.072

0.012

0.020

0.060

0.064

0.065

0.085

Ground motion relations are key element in seismic hazard evaluations. They
provide the link between the occurrence of earthquake and the resulting ground motion at
a particular site, which a structure must be able to withstand. At present there is no
attenuation equation derived for Pakistan. More SMAs are required to be installed in
important cities/towns and along critical structures, such as dams and big buildings, in
order to develop data base for attenuation equations. Till the data base is available, an
attempt is done to select attenuation relations that can be used to arrive at some
conclusions. Keeping in view the seismological parameters of October 08, 2005
earthquake, the candidate attenuation relations and results for important sites are given in
Table-3. Based on this table, two attenuations equations i.e. Campbell (1977) and
Ambraseys et al (2005) can be feasible for Northern Pakistan tectonic conditions. It is
emphasized that constructions may be carried out keeping in view these values, until the
new Buildings Codes for Pakistan are prepared. However, the Critical Structures require
special studies and geotechnical investigations.
6.0

CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS
1. Description of the local tectonic features suggest that the whole of the Northern
Pakistan lies in the collision zone of the northern part of Indian Plate, with
associated faults that show evidences of fault movement during Quaternary period
and should therefore be considered seismically active.
2. The October 08, 2005 earthquake was caused by the movement due to rupture
along a thrust fault named Muzaffarabad fault or Himalayan Frontal Thrust
(HFT), which is northern most part of the Riasi Thrust, a main branch of MBT.
3. The Kashmir Hazara earthquake reactivated a number of related tectonic features
including the Jhelum Thrust Zone (JTZ), which is a backsteepen left-lateral
reverse fault. It acts as an active lateral ramp along the western limb of Hazara
Kashmir Syntaxis (HKS). The thrust traces extends from north of Muzaffarabad
to near Salt Range/Jhelum towards south i.e. along the axis of HKS. The
seismicity data indicate that in near future, an M = 6 to 8 earthquake is expected
along JTZ.
4. Landslides were a major secondary hazard due to the earthquake. The slides
varied from major slides to disrupted slides, which pose a major danger in future
earthquakes or during heavy rainfalls. It was estimated that the landslides may
have occurred to a distance of about 200 km from epicenter.
5. It is recommended that a detailed seismic hazard assessment is carried out in the
affected areas prior to the commencement of reconstruction. This study should be
comprehensive and should also incorporate the latest information on geology,
tectonics and seismicity in the area. A detailed seismic hazard assessment would
allow the ground motions to be estimated in order to be used for seismic design
and the evaluation of the impacts by secondary hazards such as landslides.
6. The substantial damage to building stock in the area suggests the lack of seismic
resistant design and construction practice in the region. It is therefore important
that the reconstruction is carried out in accordance with proven seismic methods.

7. A large proportion of buildings damaged were residential and hence their

reconstruction will be locally driven, there is need for a good education program
in seismic resistance construction practices using local materials and local
available technologies.
8. The future strain buildup, uplift rates, slip rates, recurrence intervals and
seismicity in the area along the JTZ, need to be monitored continuously, in order
to avoid major human disasters like the October, 08, 2005 earthquake. It requires
installation of seismic networks and SMA.

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11