[2015 BUDGET POLL]

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 3,199 Albertans by Smart IVR on November 1st, 2015.
A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of Error: +/- 1.73%, 19 times out of
20. Regional margins of error: Edmonton: +/- 3.07%; Calgary +/-2.99%; Rest of Alberta :
+/-2.95%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based on the 2011
Canadian Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

43% DISAPPROVE OF ALBERTA BUDGET

November 2, 2015 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds 43% of Albertans disapprove of
the budget while one in four have not made up their mind. With 3,199 respondents the poll has a margin of
error of +/- 1.73 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
While the budget doesnt have wide support several measures within it do, said David Valentin,
Executive-Vice President of Mainstreet Research. There is strong support for new sin taxes and for the job
creation incentive program despite warnings from Economists and the opposition that it will do little to
spur employment. 71% approve of the job creation incentive program while 59% approve of increases to the
cost of cigarettes and liquor.
The poll found most Albertans want to move ahead with capital spending, 55% say spending on capital
projects should not be cut while 49% approve of the provinces capital spending plan.
A real strength for the government on this has been that theyve been specic about some of the projects
that are included in the infrastructure plan. There has been a strong desire for a comprehensive cancer
centre in Calgary as well as the ring road, and there is of course a real need for new schools that have been
announced and re-announced time and time again, continued Valentin. Despite the cost Albertans are
onboard with the infrastructure plan.
When looking at the provincial horserace the NDP and Wildrose are in a deadheat. The Wildrose are down
2% to 33% while the NDP are up 2% to 32%. The numbers are within the margin of error but its a bit
counter-intuitive that while the NDP have delivered a tough budget that they would remain stable and
trend slightly upward, continued Valentin. I think low expectations for the budget certainly played a role.
Certainly it has not helped the Wildrose that the conversation has been about their opposition to 9 AM
sittings rather than some of the measures in the budget.
Most Albertans, 58%, say Alberta is headed in the wrong direction. Theres not a great deal of optimism for
the provincial economy. Weve seen this in many of our polls from this year. Its not a surprise to see these
numbers when layos continue to be reported, nished Valentin.
ABOUT MAINSTREET
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the
only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

If a provincial election were

held today,
which party would you support?
LEANING
AND DECIDED

35
30
25
20
15
10

All Voters
NDP

Wildrose

ALBERTA NDP
WILDROSE
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
ALBERTA LIBERAL
ALBERTA PARTY
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
ALBERTA NDP
WILDROSE
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
ALBERTA LIBERAL
ALBERTA PARTY
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

4%

3%

20%

37%

36%

11%

4%

3%

18%

33%

32%

Decided & Leaning

PCs

Liberal

18-34
32%
41%
14%
3%
6%
5%
456

Alberta

35-49
35%
27%
19%
2%
3%
14%
612

Edmonton
52%
18%
11%
5%
6%
8%
1021

Undecided

50-64
28%
32%
21%
3%
2%
14%
1008
Calgary
34%
31%
15%
4%
5%
10%
1073

65+ Male Female

33% 31%
33%
32% 39%
28%
20% 18%
18%
2%
2%
4%
2%
4%
3%
11%
7%
14%
1123 1432 1767
Rest of Alberta
25%
39%
21%
1%
2%
12%
1105

A4

From everything you have

seen, read
or heard,
do you approve or disapprove
LEANING
AND
DECIDED
of the new budget released by the Alberta government this week?

26%
31%

43%

TOTAL APPROVAL: 31%

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

TOTAL DISAPPROVAL: 43%

18-34
8%
24%
10%
28%
29%

35-49
11%
16%
14%
34%
25%

Edmonton
14%
22%
12%
36%
16%

50-64
14%
19%
12%
32%
23%
Calgary
12%
17%
13%
31%
27%

NOT SURE: 26%

65+ Male Female
17% 12%
12%
19% 18%
21%
10% 11%
12%
30% 32%
30%
24% 27%
25%
Rest of Alberta
11%
20%
11%
30%
29%

A5

The new budget is forecasting a record

$6.1 billion
decit.
The government says it needs to run a decit
LEANING
AND
DECIDED
because of low energy prices and to avoid cutting front-line sta. But critics say its taking on too much red
ink. In your opinion is the decit too big, not big enough or the right amount?

22%

37%

23%

18%
Too Big

Not Big Enough

Right Amount

TOO BIG
NOT BIG ENOUGH
THE RIGHT AMOUNT
NOT SURE

18-34
37%
14%
24%
26%

TOO BIG
NOT BIG ENOUGH
THE RIGHT AMOUNT
NOT SURE

Edmonton
43%
17%
21%
19%

35-49
41%
20%
19%
20%

Not Sure

50-64
35%
20%
27%
18%
Calgary
37%
17%
22%
24%

65+
33%
22%
21%
24%

Male Female
37% 36%
17%
20%
23% 22%
22% 22%

Rest of Alberta
35%
19%
24%
22%

A6

The province is going to borrow more money

for capital
projects, ramping up spending on project such as
LEANING
AND DECIDED
roads, schools and hospitals. It will spend $34 billion over the next ve years. Do you approve or disapprove of
this capital spending?

10%

49%

41%

TOTAL APPROVAL: 49%

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

TOTAL DISAPPROVAL: 41%

18-34
37%
12%
24%
14%
15%

35-49
41%
13%
19%
20%
7%

Edmonton
43%
9%
21%
17%
10%

50-64
35%
8%
27%
20%
10%
Calgary
37%
15%
22%
17%
9%

NOT SURE: 10%

65+
33%
16%
21%
22%
8%

Male Female
38%
36%
12%
12%
23%
22%
17%
20%
10%
11%
Rest of Alberta
35%
11%
24%
19%
11%

A7

Should the government cut

capital spending
on roads, schools and hospitals?
LEANING
AND DECIDED

16%
29%

55%

Yes

No

Not Sure

YES
NO
NOT SURE

18-34
28%
53%
18%

YES
NO
NOT SURE

Edmonton
32%
52%
16%

35-49
28%
56%
16%

50-64
30%
56%
14%
Calgary
28%
56%
16%

65+
29%
59%
12%

Male Female
28% 30%
56% 55%
17%
15%

Rest of Alberta
28%
56%
16%

A8

Starting next year, the province will start

borrowingAND
to fund
day-to-day operating spending for government
LEANING
DECIDED
programs and public-sector employee salaries. Do you approve or disapprove?

20%

46%

35%

TOTAL APPROVAL: 46%

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

TOTAL DISAPPROVAL: 35%

18-34
36%
11%
19%
12%
22%

35-49
36%
11%
16%
19%
17%

Edmonton
37%
10%
16%
14%
23%

50-64
33%
10%
19%
17%
21%
Calgary
34%
13%
18%
15%
20%

NOT SURE: 20%

65+ Male Female
32% 37%
32%
14% 11%
12%
16% 18%
18%
20% 15%
18%
17% 19%
20%
Rest of Alberta
34%
11%
19%
18%
19%

A9

The governments plan is to run four LEANING

consecutiveAND
decits
totaling $18 billion before getting back into a
DECIDED
surplus in 2019-2020 due to low energy prices and to avoid cutting front-line sta and programs.
Critics say its taking on too much debt and the decits are too large.
Do you approve or disapprove of the governments plan?

29%

31%

40%
TOTAL APPROVAL: 29%
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

TOTAL DISAPPROVAL: 40%

18-34
8%
22%
10%
28%
33%

35-49
11%
15%
13%
31%
31%

Edmonton
13%
21%
10%
34%
21%

50-64
13%
17%
11%
30%
29%
Calgary
12%
16%
12%
29%
31%

NOT SURE: 31%

65+
15%
18%
9%
28%
29%

Male Female
11%
11%
17%
19%
11%
11%
31%
28%
30%
31%
Rest of Alberta
10%
18%
11%
28%
33%

A10

The NDP government initially promised LEANING

to balance its
books
in 2018-19 before pushing it back a year. Should
AND
DECIDED
it balance the books sooner, even if it has to raise taxes or cut services?

21%
27%

52%

Yes

No

Not Sure

YES
NO
NOT SURE

18-34
27%
50%
23%

YES
NO
NOT SURE

Edmonton
31%
50%
19%

35-49
27%
53%
21%

50-64
29%
53%
19%
Calgary
27%
53%
20%

65+ Male Female

27% 26% 28%
54% 52%
51%
19% 21%
21%
Rest of Alberta
26%
52%
21%

A11

The budget calls for a job creation incentive

program
starting next year, will give businesses up to
LEANING
ANDthat,
DECIDED
$5,000 for each new full-time position created by eligible employers.
The two-year program is projected to create 27,000 new jobs, but critics say it wont work. Do you approve
or disapprove of the new job creation incentive program?

6%

23%

71%

TOTAL APPROVAL: 71%

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

TOTAL DISAPPROVAL: 23%

18-34
39%
23%
4%
25%
8%

35-49
53%
20%
6%
18%
3%

Edmonton
49%
19%
4%
19%
9%

50-64
58%
16%
5%
13%
8%
Calgary
47%
19%
7%
18%
9%

NOT SURE: 6%
65+
58%
18%
2%
15%
6%

Male Female
51%
50%
19%
21%
4%
5%
20%
17%
6%
7%
Rest of Alberta
53%
21%
4%
18%
5%

A12

Under the new budget, cigarette taxes are

rising byAND
$5 a carton
and liquor store markups are rising ve per
LEANING
DECIDED
cent equal to 24 cents per 12-pack or 18 cents on a bottle of wine. Do you approve or disapprove?

10%

31%
59%

TOTAL APPROVAL: 59%

STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
STRONGLY APPROVE
SOMEWHAT APPROVE
SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

TOTAL DISAPPROVAL: 31%

18-34
34%
20%
7%
29%
11%

35-49
43%
18%
11%
21%
7%

Edmonton
42%
18%
8%
22%
11%

50-64
48%
14%
10%
17%
11%
Calgary
39%
14%
11%
23%
12%

NOT SURE: 10%

65+ Male Female
47% 42%
42%
15% 16%
18%
8%
8%
9%
20% 24%
21%
10%
9%
10%
Rest of Alberta
43%
18%
8%
22%
8%

A13

The province announced all MLAs and political sta will have their salaries frozen for the rest of the
LEANING AND DECIDED
governments term. Should the government freeze wages for all public-sector employees when their
collective agreements expire or as soon as possible?

16%

12%

72%

Yes

No

Not Sure

YES
NO
NOT SURE

18-34
64%
15%
21%

YES
NO
NOT SURE

Edmonton
70%
22%
8%

35-49
74%
12%
14%

50-64
76%
9%
15%
Calgary
67%
11%
22%

65+
78%
10%
12%

Male Female
71%
72%
12%
12%
17%
16%

Rest of Alberta
74%
9%
17%

A14

Should the government increase

taxes
to raise
revenue and balance its books?
LEANING
AND
DECIDED

10%

42%

48%

Yes

No

Not Sure

YES
NO
NOT SURE

18-34
37%
48%
15%

YES
NO
NOT SURE

Edmonton
45%
46%
10%

35-49
39%
54%
7%

50-64
47%
43%
10%
Calgary
39%
52%
9%

65+ Male Female

50% 42% 42%
46% 48% 48%
4% 10%
10%
Rest of Alberta
37%
53%
10%

A15

Is Alberta headedLEANING
in the rightAND
direction
or the wrong direction?
DECIDED

19%

22%

58%

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Not Sure

RIGHT DIRECTION
WRONG DIRECTION
NOT SURE

18-34
18%
57%
25%

RIGHT DIRECTION
WRONG DIRECTION
NOT SURE

Edmonton
24%
55%
21%

35-49
21%
68%
11%

50-64
26%
56%
18%
Calgary
24%
56%
19%

65+
9%
15%
76%

Male Female
22% 22%
58% 58%
19% 20%

Rest of Alberta
21%
60%
19%

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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