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How Humans Impact the Environment

Jonathan M. Links, PhD
Johns Hopkins University

Environmental Sciences

The natural environment

Ecology
Mans impact on the natural environment
Ecology and environmental engineering
The environments impact on man
Environmental health sciences

The Environment and Health

The natural environment

The built environment
The social environment

Human/Environment Impact Circle

Humans
Environment

Precepts

The physical environment, our habitat, is the most important

determinant of human health
Protection of the environment and preservation of
ecosystems are the most fundamental steps in preventing
human illness
Environmental problems are global and long-term
Human belief systems are part of the problem

The Earth as a Fishbowl

Ecosystem
Solar
energy

Natural Resources
Energy Resources
Environmental Services

Heat

Small Population and Little Technology

Small population and little technologysociety has low

impact on environment

ENVIRONMENT
Deplete

Pollute
SOCIETY
Traditional
economics

Our Expanding Numbers

10

World population growth throughout history and near-term future

9
8

2.5 M
yrs ago

7000
B.C.

4000
B.C.

6 billion1998

5 billion1987

4 billion1974

3 billion1959

2 billion1938

1 billion1830

1000
B.C.

A.D. A.D.
1 2040

Billions of People

Larger Population and Increased Technology

Larger population and increased technologysociety has

great impact on environment

ENVIRONMENT

Deplete

SOCIETY

Pollute

Environmental economics
10

Societal Needs and Wants

N
E
E
D
S

W
A
N
T
S

W
A
N
T
S

ENVIRONMENT

11

Why Do We Pollute the Environment?

Driving forces
Population
Technology
Economic, political,
and social values

Human
behavior
Needs
Wants Mitigating forces
Environmental laws
Market adjustments
Informal social
regulation

Environmental
change

12

The Industrial Process and the Environment

Chemical inputs
(raw materials)
Power inputs
(gas, oil coal)
Other inputs
(water)

I
N
D
U
S
T
R
Y

Air
pollution
Water
pollution
Toxic
waste

The product
itself
13

Environmental Impact (A Model)

I=PxAxT
I = environmental impact; P = population;
A = affluence; T = technology

Growth in
environ. impact

Growth in
population

Growth in
affluence

Growth in
technology

Consumption
14

U.S. Material Consumption Trends

Million Metric Tons

800
Indust. Minerals
Metals
Nonfuel Organics
Paper
Wood
Agriculture

600
400
200
0
1910

1930

1950

1970

1990

15

U.S. Household Ownership of Appliances

100

Percent

80
60
40
20
0
1960
Color TV

1970
Air Conditioners

1980
Microwave

1990

2000

Video Recorders
16

Million Tons of Oil Equivalent

World Fossil Fuel Use

9000
7500
6000
4500
3000
1500
0
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

17

Sulfur and Nitrogen Emissions from Fossil Fuel Burning

Worldwide emissions from burning fossil fuels

Million Tons

80
60
40
20
0
1950

1960

1970
Sulfur

1980

1990

2000

Nitrogen Dioxide
18

The London Killer Smog of 1952

Daily concentrations of smoke and sulfur dioxide are related

to the number of excess deaths each day in London

Adapted by CTLT from.

19

World Automobile Production and Fleet

600

30
400
20
200

Fleet (millions)

Production (millions)

40

10

0
1950

1960

1970
Production

1980

1990

2000

Fleet

20

MSW and Per Capita Generation of MSW

Municipal solid waste (MSW) and per capita generation of
MSW
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1960

1970

1980

Million Tons of MSW

1990

Pounds/Person/Day

Million Tons

2000

Pounds/Person/Day
21

The Big Questions

1.
2.

What is this pollution doing to us?

What can we do about it?

22

Problem-Solving Paradigm: Six Steps

1.
2.
3.
4.

5.
6.

Define the problem

Measure its magnitude
Understand key determinants
Develop intervention/
prevention strategies
Set policy/priorities
Implement and evaluate

Risk assessment

Risk management

23

Risk Assessment and Management

Hazard
identification

Exposure
assessment

Doseresponse
assessment

Risk characterization
Risk
communication

Risk management
24

Dose-Response Curve

100%
R
e
s
p
o
n
s
e

Carcinogens
Non-carcinogens

0
Dose
25

Dose-Response Curve

Observable
Range
R
e
s
p
o
n
s
e

Range of Inference

Dose
26

Risk Management Approaches

Engineering
Process controls
Emission reduction
Social and behavioral
Worker training
Risk communication and risk reduction

27

Risk Management Approaches

Regulatory
Emission limits
Mandated processes

28

Perceived vs. Actual Risk

Underprotection

Optimum
Protection

Public
Policy

Public
Policy

Public
Policy

Perceived
Risk

Perceived
Risk

Perceived
Risk

Overprotection

Actual
Risk
29

Recognition of a Broader Environmental Impact

Food security
Climate change
Deforestation
Desertification
Land degradation
Stratospheric ozone depletion
Loss of biodiversity

30