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Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Himalaya
Pradeep K. Mool
ICIMOD, GPO Box 3226, Kathmandu, Nepal.
email: pmool@icimod.org
Abstract:
Glacial lakes dammed by moraines and or ice core of retreating glaciers in the Himalaya due
to accelerated global warming. Sudden breach of the unstable moraine dams resulting
discharges of huge amounts of water and debris known as Glacial Lake Outburst Flood or
GLOF often have catastrophic effects downstream. Even the small glacial lake associated
with hanging glaciers poses high potential for breaching and resulting to GLOF. At least
twenty GLOF events recorded in Himalaya in the last seven decades that resulted in heavy
loss of human lives and their property, destruction of infrastructure besides damages to
agriculture land and forests. Information and knowledge on GLOF is required for the planning
for water resources and flood hazards management. International Centre for Integrated
Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and its partner institutes, in collaboration with United
Nations Environment Programme, the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research
(APN) and the global change SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training (START), carried
out the study of glaciers, glacial lakes and GLOF of selected basins in Himalaya. The studies
generated the baseline information for future monitoring of glaciers, glacial lakes and GLOFs
of the region due to climate change, for the development of monitoring and early warning
systems, for planning and prioritizing disaster mitigation efforts, for estimating future
available water resources and their planning and management. Study also reviled several
potential dangerous glacial lakes in Himalaya. Some of the past GLOF events have damaging
effects in the lower riparian countries. Regional cooperation is required for knowledge
management on GLOF issues due to trans-boundary nature of GLOF phenomena.
Glaciers are natures valuable source of fresh water in the form of frozen reservoirs from
which large amounts of melt ice release to many of the major rivers of the Hindu Kush
Himalaya (HKH) (Xu Jianchu et.al. 2007; Zemp, M., et. al., 2007). They supply water for
drinking, and the needs of agriculture, hydropower, and industry for the millions of people
living downstream.
Glaciers are also repositories of information for exploring quaternary climate changes, as they
remain sensitive to global temperature conditions. This is indicated by the continuous retreat
of glaciers, and the formation of many glacial lakes at the toe of glaciers dammed by the loose
moraine. The rapid accumulation of water in glacial lakes can lead to a sudden breach of their
unstable moraine dams, however. The resultant discharges of huge amounts of water and
debris a glacial lake outburst flood often have catastrophic effects downstream. A number
of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have been reported in the region in the last few
decades, particularly from the eastern sector of the region. GLOFs have resulted in many
deaths for downstream populations as well as destruction of property and infrastructure.
Climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect has increased the rate of glacier
melting and thereby the frequency of GLOFs in recent years. Since industrialization, human
activities have resulted in steadily increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere, leading to fears of enhanced greenhouse effect. The worlds average surface
temperature has increased between 0.3 and 0.6oC over the past hundred years. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its third assessment report, revealed
that the rate and duration of the warming in the 20th century is larger than at any other time
during the last one thousand years. The 1990s was likely to be the warmest decade of the
millennium in the Northern Hemisphere, and the year 1998, the warmest year (IPCC, 2001a).
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), year 2002 and 2003 have been
the 2nd and 3rd hottest years, respectively ever since climate statistics have been monitored
and documented.
Climate change is causing the net shrinkage and retreat of glaciers and the increase in size and
number of glacial lakes, especially in the high mountains. Studies using satellite data have
tried to correlate present area under glaciers with historical records, and with fluctuations in
temperature. Results show that the recession rate has increased with rising temperature. For
example, with the temperatures rising by 1oC, Alpine glaciers have shrunk by 40% in area and
by more than 50% in volume since 1850 (IPCC, 2001b & CSE, 2002). Evidence also show
that the changes in temperature are more pronounced at higher altitudes. Analysis of air
temperature trends across 49 stations in Nepal between 1977-1994, for example, revealed a
clearly rising trend, with the change much more pronounced in the higher altitude regions of
the country. (Shrestha et al. 1999)
This has a twofold impact on the mass balance of glaciers. The direct result is to accelerate
their melting. Furthermore, it induces precipitation to occur in liquid instead of solid form,
even at very high altitudes. The absence of a blanketing layer of snow on the ice lowers its
albedo, making glaciers further prone to radiative melting (Mool, P.K et al, 2001a).
Numerous studies carried out during 1999-2001 lend credence to the link between climate
change and glacier melting. All the glaciers in the Himalaya have retreated by approximately a
kilometer since the Little Ice Age [AD 1550-1850] (Mool P.K et al,2001a). The Dokriani
Bamak Glacier in the Himalaya (India) retreated by 20 meters in 1998, compared to an
average retreat of 16.5 meters over the previous five years. (Matny, L., 2000). A long-term
study entitled, The Chinese Glacier Inventory, by the Chinese Academy of Sciences has
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Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Himalaya
Pradeep K. Mool
Page 2
reported that during the last 24 years there has been a 5.5 % shrinkage in volume of Chinas
46,928 glaciers, equivalent to the loss of more than 3000 sq km of ice. The study predicts that
if climate continues to change at the present rate, two-thirds of Chinas glaciers would
disappear by 2050, and almost all would be gone by 2100 (China Daily, 23 September 2004).
Evidence have been conclusive enough to make glacier melting and retreat an important
indicator for climate change.
Table 1: Some recorded GLOF events in Nepal, Tibet Autonomous Region of China and Bhutan
No
Date
Lake
Aug-35
Tara-Cho
21-Sep-64
Gelhaipco
1964
Zhangzangbo
25-Aug-64
Longda
1968
Ayaco
1969
Ayaco
18-Aug-70
Ayaco
River Basin
Boqu (Tibet) /
Sun Koshi
(Nepal)
PumQu
(Tibet) / Arun
(Nepal)
Boqu (Tibet) /
Sun Koshi
(Nepal)
Gyrong (Tibet) /
Trisuli (Nepal)
PumQu
(Tibet) / Arun
(Nepal)
PumQu
(Tibet) / Arun
(Nepal)
PumQu
(Tibet) / Arun
(Nepal)
Source
Country Effected
Cause of GLOF
Tibet (China)
Dam Piping
Tibet (China)
Glacier surge
Tibet (China)
Piping
Tibet (China)
Not known
Tibet (China)
Not known
Tibet (China)
Not known
Tibet (China)
Not known
3-Sep-77
Nare
Dudh Koshi
Nepal
Nepal
Moraine collapse
23-Jun-80
Nagma Pokhari
Tamor
Nepal
Nepal
Moraine collapse
10
11-Jul-81
Zhangzangbo
Tibet (China)
Glacier surge
11
27-Aug-82
Jinco
Tibet (China)
Glacier surge
12
4-Aug-85
Dig Tsho
Dudh Koshi
Nepal
Nepal
Ice avalanche
13
12-Jul-91
Chubung
Tama Koshi
Nepal
Nepal
Moraine collapse
14
3-Sep-98
TamPokhari
Nepal
Nepal
Ice avalanche
15
10-Jul-40
Qunbixiama-Cho
Tibet (China)
China
Ice avalanche
16
10-Jul-54
Sangwang-Cho
Dudh Koshi
KangboquAhmchu
Nianchu
Tibet (China)
China
Glacier advance
17
26-Sep-64
Damenlahe-Cho
Nyang
Tibet (China)
China
Ice avalanche
18
23-Jul-72
Poge-Cho
Xibaxiaqu
Tibet (China)
China
Ice avalanche
Tibet (China)
China
Ice avalanche
Boqu (Tibet) /
Sun Koshi
(Nepal)
PumQu
(Tibet) / Arun
(Nepal)
19
24-Jun-81
Zari-Cho
Yarlung
Zangbo
20
14-Jul-88
Mitui-Cho
Palong Zangbo
Tibet (China)
China
Ice avalanche
21
7-Oct-94
Lugge-Tsho
Pho Chu
Bhutan
Bhutan
Moraine collapse
Some of the glacial lakes in China in Poiqu basin, which is trans-boundary basin and join with
SunKoshi-BhoteKoshi in Nepal, such as LumuChimi lake and GangxiCo lake have grown
almost double in size within last twentyfive years. These lakes pose potential threat of GLOFs
which most often have devastating effects on local people and the surrounding environment.
While human activities cause climate change, and climate change accelerates glacier melting
and GLOFs, GLOFs in turn cause widespread damage in the human and natural systems.
Glacier melting and GLOFs exacerbate land degradation, increase variations in the
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Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Himalaya
Pradeep K. Mool
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Page 4
Figure: Map of the Hindu Kush-Himalaya showing the areas covered by the Inventory of Glaciers and
Glacial Lakes Studies
Table 2: Summary of glaciers and glacial lakes in the mountains of
Pakistan, India, and China/Tibet Autonomous Region compiled by
ICIMOD.
Glaciers
Glacial Lakes
River Basins
Total
number
Area
(km2)
Total
number
Area
(km2)
Pakistan Himalaya
Indus Basin
5218
15040.7
2420
126.35
Himachal Pradesh
2554
4160.58
229
379.72
Uttaranchal
1439
4060.04
127
2.49
Tista River
285
576.51
266
20.20
India Himalaya
1578
2864.33
824
85.19
A summary of the inventoried glaciers and glacial lakes in the Himalaya of Pakistan, India,
Tibet Autonomous Region (Peoples Republic of China), Nepal, and Bhutan is given in Table
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Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Himalaya
Pradeep K. Mool
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2. The database indicates that the number of glacial lakes and glacial lake outburst floods in
the eastern Himalaya is comparatively higher than in the western Himalaya.
Regular assessment monitoring of glaciers and glacial lakes and adaptation measures
including engineering structure and policy linkage for potential dangerous glacial lakes are
required. Field validation of these glaciers and glacial lakes are also needed.
Advanced scientific knowledge of potential GLOF hazards, building capacity among local
institutions and agencies for undertaking or monitoring these studies, and linking this
knowledge to policy and planning are, therefore, of immense importance to the lives of
millions of mountain dwellers and their downstream neighbors
(http://dev.icimod.org/elibrary/index.php/search/publication/169
http://books.icimod.org/index.php/search/publication/131
http://books.icimod.org/index.php/search/publication/286
http://ekh.unep.org/m-eKH/GLOF_NEPAL/GUIDE/movie.html
http://www.rrcap.unep.org/issues/glof/glof/index.htm)
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) is undertaking several
projects on study of glacial lakes and glaciers in the region.
ICIMOD with support of the World Bank and in collaboration with partners from Nepal is
implementing the project entitled GLOF Assessment and Mitigation Study of Potential
Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) lakes in Nepal from September 2008. The objectives of
the study project are (1) to develop recommendations for adaptation and mitigation against
GLOF hazards against potential dangerous glacial lakes in Nepal, and (2) to assist Nepal in
the development of an overall strategy on how to address risk from GLOF s in the future.
ICIMOD is also implementing since 2008 for three year Sida funded project Too much
Water, Too little water- Adaptation strategies to climate induced water stress and hazards in
the Greater Himalayan region. Among the four major activities of the project, the first
activity is to strengthen the capacity within ICIMOD, and its national partners, to undertake
regular monitoring of glaciers, snow and ice fields, and pro-glacial lakes, on a regional scale,
with the purpose of supporting researchers and policy and decision makers in the region and
beyond with timely and adequate data and information on the status of these features.
ICIMOD together with the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research,
Oslo (CICERO) and UNEP will undertake a feasibility study for a Himalayan Climate Change
Impact and Adaptation Assessment (HICIA). This study will take place during 2008 and 2009.
During initial planning meetings it was decided that the feasibility phase shall focus on a
GLOF and flash flood risk assessment. The feasibility phase of HICIA will also foster an
inventory of ongoing modeling activities and capacity in the region as those tools are of
strategic importance to understand the impact of climate change on water resources in the
HKH.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Bajracharya, S. R., Mool, P. K., Shrestha, B. R, (2007), Impact of climate change on Himalayan glaciers and
glacial lakes: case studies on GLOF and associated hazards in Nepal and Bhutan. ISBN 978 92 9115 032 8
ICIMOD, Nepal. 119p (http://books.icimod.org/index.php/search/publication/169)
Center for Science and Environment (2002) Melting into Oblivion, Down To Earth, 15 May 2002
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Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Himalaya
Pradeep K. Mool
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ICIMOD (2003, 2004, 2005), Reports of APN 2004-03-CMY Project Inventory of Glaciers and Glacial Lakes
and the Identification of Potential Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) Affected by Global Warming in the
Mountains of India, Pakistan and China/Tibet Autonomous Region
(http://www.icimod-gis.net/gis/naturalhazard.php)
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Ives, J.D(1986), Glacial Lake Outburst Floods and Risk Engineering in the Himalaya, ICIMOD Occasional
Paper No.5, ICIMOD, Nepal, 42 p. (http://books.icimod.org/index.php/search/publication/379)
Matny, L. (2000) Melting of Erths Ice Cover Reaches New High. Worldwatch News Brief, 06 March 2000.
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Kaltenborn, B.P., Karki, M., Kaser, G., Kotlyakov, V.M., Lambrechts, C., Li, Z.Q., Molina, B.F., Mool, P.,
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(2007): Glaciers and ice caps. Part I: Global overview and outlook. Part II: Glacier changes around the world. In:
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Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Himalaya
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Acknowledgement:
I would like to thank, ICIMOD for support, to my colleagues and other study team members from ICIMOD and
partners for their contribution in preparing the information.
Contact address:
Pradeep K Mool
Remote Sensing Specialist
Action Area Team Leader for
Monitoring and Assessment of Ice and Water Resources
Integrated Water and Hazard Management Programme
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Khumaltar, Lalitpur
PO Box 3226 Kathmandu, Nepal.
Email : pmool@icimod.org
Phone: 977-1-5003222 (Office);
Fax: 977-1-5003299;
URL: www.icimod.org
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Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Himalaya
Pradeep K. Mool
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