Thayer Consultancy

Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

North Koreas Nuclear Test: Six

Explanations
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 7, 2016
[client name deleted]
Could you comment on North Korea's nuclear testing today? Why did they do that
this particular time?
ANSWER: North Koreas claim to have carried out a more advanced test of a nuclear
bomb than previously has not been confirmed by independent sources. The United
States government has cast doubt on North Koreas claim it conducted a test of a
hydrogen bomb. It is clear that an explosion of some type was set off on January 6th
as claimed. It measured 5.1 on the Richter scale and was located in the area where
North Korea has conducted three previous nuclear tests.
In order to confirm whether or not North Koreas claim that it successfully conducted
its first H-bomb test it will be necessary for reconnaissance aircraft to collect air
samples of the gasses emitted by the test. John Carlson, the former head of
Australias nuclear safeguards office, speculated that North Korea carried out a lowyield boosted explosion in which tritium, a hydrogen isotope, underwent partial
fusion.
Decision-making in North Korea is opaque at the best of times. There are at least six
explanations for the timing of this nuclear test.
First, North Korean scientists must continue to test nuclear weapons in order to
develop a miniaturized warhead for deployment on an intercontinental ballistic
missile. The timing of the nuclear explosion, according to this view, was that North
Korean scientists had reached the technical standards required for the test. The last
North Korean nuclear test was in 2013.
Second, North Korean leaders, and the current leader Kim Jung-un in particular,
relish being unpredictable. When they feel that North Korea is being ignored by the
international community, they resort to provocative actions. This form of
brinkmanship is designed to force the five other members of the Six Party Talks
(China, South Korea, Japan, Russia and the United States) to deal with North Korea
and perhaps even offer economic incentives to get North Korea to halt its nuclear
program.
Third, the nuclear test was carried out to bolster Kim Jong-un status as undisputed
leader of North Korea on the eve of his birthday (January 8) and in advance of the

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May congress of the Korean Workers Party, the first such congress in thirty-five
years. In December last year Kim made an ambiguous statement that implied North
Korea had developed a hydrogen bomb and this test is a confirmation of that claim.
Fourth, the nuclear test was designed to influence China from putting increased
pressure on North Korea to abandon its nuclear program.
Fifth, the nuclear test was carried out to convince the United States that its policy of
sanctions and isolation of North Korea was a failure.
Sixth, North Korea carried out the nuclear test to develop a deterrent against attack
by the United States. North Koreas official statement noted this test is a measure
for self-defense to firmly protect the sovereignty of the country from the evergrowing nuclear threat and blackmail by the U.S.-led hostile forces
These six explanations are not mutually exclusive. Several of these explanations in
combination could explain the timing of the test.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, North Koreas Nuclear Test: Six Explanations
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 7, 2016jdlondon@cityu.edu.hk. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy

Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

North Korea: Ramifications of

Its Nuclear Test
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 9, 2016
[client name deleted]
As you see, the latest North Koreas move by claiming they had successfully tested
Hydrogen Nuclear Bomb has caused worldwide concerns. So, I would like to ask for
your opinions about what is happening:
Q1: Does North Koreas move really affect the world security? Especially according to
Reuters, North Korea boosted frontline troop strength as South readies broadcasts.
ANSWER: North Koreas explosion of a nuclear devise affects world and regional
security in two major respects. First, it undermines the authority of the United
Nations Security Council to control the global proliferation of nuclear weapons and
their means of delivery. This could embolden other states, such as Iran, to follow a
similar path of flouting the Security Council. Any undermining of the Security Council
weakens global order in general.
Second, North Koreas continued development of nuclear weapons directly affects
the security of South Korea and Japan because they are non-nuclear countries. If
North Korea continues its nuclear weapons program this could produce domestic
pressures in Japan and South Korea to develop their own nuclear weapons. South
Korea once embarked on this path but ended its program under U.S. pressure. Both
Japan and South Korea, faced by a nuclear armed North Korea, will intensify their
defense relations with the United States. The United States is considering deploying
ballistic missile defences to South Korea. This will cause concern in China. The United
States will be threated if North Korea developed intercontinental ballistic missiles
capable of reaching the United States.
Q2: Under the pressure of having a close tie to North Korea before, what will China
do to keep things under control?
ANSWER: China is caught between a rock and a hard place. There are no easy
choices for China. China does not want a nuclear armed North Korea on its doorstep
with an unpredictable leader such as Kim Jong-un. If a nuclear war broke out on the
Korean peninsula China would suffer greatly. A North Korea that used the threat of
nuclear blackmail could act against Chinese wishes.
But there are limits as to how much pressure China can put on North Korea to get it
to act as China wants. If China imposed severe economic sanctions this could

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contribute to the collapse of the North Korean regime. South Korea and its ally, the
United States, would benefit from a reunified Korea. China would bear the costs of
refugees fleeing across the border. This would cause domestic instability in China.
Q3: What do you think about the possible affect on North Korea from the expected
United Nations Security Council sanctions?
ANSWER: United Nations Security Council Sanctions will have only a marginal impact
on North Koreas future policies. North Koreas leaders ensure their survival and
well-being first and let the general public suffer. UN sanctions will only reinforce
North Koreas leadership embattled mindset. In the past, North Korea has attempted
to manipulate a situation such as this to extract concessions or rewards from hostile
powers. If Kim Jong-un buckled to UN sanctions he would lose power. UN sanctions
could encourage some individuals inside North Korea to overthrow Kim but their
chance of success appears slim.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, North Korea: Ramifications of Its Nuclear

Test, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 9, 2016. All background briefs
are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing
list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.