Professional Documents
Culture Documents
com
ScienceDirect
The International Journal of Accounting 50 (2015) 31 52
Abstract
Modern portfolio theory suggests that investors minimize risk for a given level of expected return
by carefully choosing the proportions of various assets. This study sets out to determine the role of
the institutional investor in monitoring risk and rm performance. Using a sample of Australian rms
from 2006 to 2008, our empirical study shows a positive association between rm-specic risk, riskmanagement policy, and performance for rms with increasing institutional shareholdings. The study
also nds that the signicance of this association depends on the institutional investor's ability to
inuence management, which in turn depends on the size of ownership and whether the investee rm
does not have potential business dealings with the investor. We also nd that when rms are
nancially distressed, institutional investors engage in promoting short-term performance or exit
rather than support long-term value creation. The results are robust while controlling the potential for
endogeneity and using sensitivity tests to control for variants of performance and risk. These ndings
add to the growing body of literature examining institutional ownership and the importance of
understanding the role of risk-management in the risk and return relation.
Crown Copyright 2014 University of Illinois. All rights reserved.
JEL classification: M40; G34
Keywords: Institutional investors; Corporate governance; Risk and performance
1. Introduction
Many researchers and practitioners have identified excessive risk-taking as the major
contributor to the global financial crisis (GFC) and highlight the importance of institutional
Corresponding author.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.intacc.2014.12.004
0020-7063/Crown Copyright 2014 University of Illinois. All rights reserved.
32
investors in this scenario (Callen & Fang, 2013; Gorter & Bikker, 2013). The GFC highlights
the importance of an appropriate corporate governance structure for managing risk. The
purpose of this study is to determine the role of institutional investors in the riskreturn
relation in a period of increasing risk-taking, the GFC. The question is whether institutional
investors actively engage or seek out information on the risk-management practices of their
portfolios or whether they pursue aggressive risk-taking and favor short-term profits.
This question is particularly important in a country such as Australia, where employers in
all sectors are required to contribute to a compulsory employee superannuation scheme.1 This
means that Australia has the fourth-largest pension fund pool in the world, creating enormous
investment opportunities.2 In addition, the global financial crisis provides a unique setting to
determine the consequences of institutional investors' involvement in, and influence over,
corporate management and board behavior in the period leading up to the crisis. The OECD
countries that experienced the fastest economic growth in the 15 years prior to the global
financial crisis including the US, the UK, Australia, and Ireland were also the countries
with the greater financial sector deregulation (Pomfret, 2009). However, financial
deregulation increases vulnerability to a financial crisis (Pomfret, 2009). When the global
financial crisis unfolded, it was regarded as unexpectedly sudden (Sidhu & Tan, 2011).
Although it is generally accepted that the Australian market suffered less of an
economic downturn than other economies (Reserve Bank of Australia, RBA, 2010), the
downturn increased business risk through, inter alia, its impact on equity and credit
markets (Xu, Jiang, Fargher, & Carson, 2011). While we can evaluate the impact of the
global financial crisis in hindsight, there was a climate of uncertainty in the investment
community from the global effects, and it is in this environment of escalating uncertainty
that we examine the risk-return relationship.
In our study, we model firm performance as a function of firm-specific risk, riskmanagement practices and the size of institutional ownership. While controlling for potential
endogeneity, we determine whether the size of institutional investor has any influence over
the association between risk and performance, measured as return on assets. The results of
the 3SLS regression show that increasing levels of firm-specific risk and a comprehensive
risk-management policy is associated with increasing institutional ownership and firm
performance. Further investigation reveals that this association is only significant for
pressure-resistant institutional investors. Research defines pressure-resistant investors as
those who do not have the scope for economic bonds and who are less averse to challenging
management. Pressure-sensitive institutional investors have the potential for business
relations with investee firms and are therefore less likely to challenge management for fear of
losing business (Brickley, Lease, & Smith, 1988).
This study contributes to the literature relating to the influence of institutional investors
on the relationship between risk and firm performance in several ways. First, our results
demonstrate that firm-specific risk and risk-management practices are an important
determinant of the size of institutional investment. Our study helps to explain previous
conflicting results on whether institutional investors consider the governance practices of
1
Employers are required by law to pay an additional amount based on a proportion of an employee's salaries
and wages (currently 9.25%) into a complying superannuation fund.
2
http://www.asx.com.au/documents/research/nancial_sector_factsheet.pdf.
33
the firms in which they invest. This information can enable diversified investors to
structure their portfolios in accordance with their risk preference. Second, we contribute to
the question on whether large institutional investors are active in ways that improve firm
performance by investigating whether institutional investors monitor the risk and
performance relationship. Third, further analysis reveals that institutional investors exit
financially-distressed firms in the long term.
The results of this study are important because they shed some light on the influence of
institutional investors in periods of increasing risk. Since the global financial crisis, researchers
have called for more research into this area. Bebchuk and Weisbach (2010: 6) wrote:
The financial crisis has intensified the ongoing debate about the role that
shareholders should play in corporate governance. To some, increasing shareholder
power and facilitating shareholder intervention when necessary is part of the
necessary reforms. To others, activism by shareholders who potentially have shortterm interests is part of the problem, not a solution. To what extent (and when) can
shareholder activism improve firm value and performance? To what extent (and
when) can shareholder activism produce distortions that make matters worse?
Research by financial economists that seeks further light on these questions will
provide valuable input to the questions with which decision-makers are wrestling.
2. Background and hypothesis development
The traditional capital asset pricing model (CAPM) suggests that there is no economic gain
to diversified investors from reducing firm-specific risk, because they will not receive a higher
risk premium on the asset. Only non-diversifiable (systematic or market) risk (beta) is rewarded.
A sufficiently diversified portfolio limits the risk exposure to systematic risk only, and the level
of systematic risk is not affected by the failure of any one firm. Therefore, excessive managerial
risk-taking is not considered problematic to a diversified shareholder because one firm's failure
will not affect a diversified investor's portfolio in any directional way.
Gordon (2010: 4) explains diversified investor attitude to risk: Competitors of the failed
firm may do better; suppliers to the failed firm may do worse, but the consequences are
unbiased. If all firms are taking good bets, however, then on average the diversified investor
will be better off. Consequently, shareholders are risk neutral. Institutional investors can
invest in different equities to diversify risk and maintain liquidity. We expect a positive
association between the size of institutional ownership and firm risk, because research tells
us that shareholders prefer more risk (Jensen & Meckling, 1976; Pathan, 2009) due to the
anticipated higher return for greater risk. Subsequently, firms are likely to take on more highrisk projects to attract greater institutional investment. This leads to our first hypothesis:
H1. The level of firm risk is positively associated with institutional ownership.
2.1. The role of institutional investors and risk-management
In contrast to the CAPM's assumption of a trade-off of higher risk for higher return,
modern portfolio theory suggests that investors minimize risk for a given level of expected
34
return by carefully choosing the proportions of various assets. While more investment risk
typically results in higher expected returns, it can also lead to a mismatch between portfolio
assets and liabilities, thereby eroding beneficiaries' future returns as demonstrated by the
recent global financial crises.
Modern portfolio theory suggests that even large institutional investors might want to
reduce firm-specific risk because large investors internalize, at least partially, the
consequences of firm failure (systemic risk) and are wary of excessive risk-taking
(Gordon & Muller, 2011). These firm-specific risks include such things as the risk created
by poor risk-management practices. Consequently, institutional investors are more likely to
invest in firms with governance practices that concur with their fiduciary duties (Hawley &
Williams, 2000) and reduce their costs of monitoring (Bushee & Noe, 2000).
Institutional investors with a large investment in a firm have a direct incentive to seek
more comprehensive information on the risk-management practices of their portfolio firms
and to respond through exit or engagement (Harper Ho, 2010). These large institutional
investors influence the firm directly through ownership in the investee firm or indirectly by
trading their shares in the firm (Gillan & Starks, 2003). Heavy selling by these investors can
cause the share price to decline, or can be interpreted as bad news, thereby triggering sales by
other investors, further contributing to a decline in share price (Baysinger, Kosnik, & Turk,
1991; Parrino, Sias, & Starks, 2003) and an ensuing increase in the cost of capital.
While some research finds that institutional investors reduce agency costs (e.g., Gillan &
Starks, 2000, 2007), others argue that they can also create agency costs (Stapledon, 1996;
Webb, Beck, & McKinnon, 2003). They suggest that there are several disincentives for
institutional investors to actively participate in the governance of portfolio firms. Webb et al.
(2003) refer to: high transaction costs; the use of index-tracking funds; the inability of
investors to influence company strategy; and, the free-ride of other investors on the
acquisition cost of the institutional investor.
Agency theory suggests that the divergent risk preferences of risk-neutral (diversified)
shareholders and risk-averse managers necessitate monitoring by the board (Jensen &
Meckling, 1976; Subramaniam, McManus, & Zhang, 2009). Consequently, without
monitoring, risk-averse managers may reject profitable (risky) projects that are attractive to
diversified investors. The challenge for diversified investors is to encourage managers to
take all positive net present value investment opportunities despite the likelihood that some
risky projects will turn out badly, thus increasing the probability of bankruptcy.
Despite the assertion by some researchers that diversified investors are not concerned
with corporate governance of individual firms (Callen & Fang, 2013), we suggest that how
firms manage risk is important to all types of investors, particularly those with substantial
skin in the game. Firms design their governance practices to monitor managerial
behavior and to curb suboptimal risk-taking. Recent research shows that suboptimal risktaking is reduced by corporate governance, as firm-specific risk is negatively associated
with the governance variables of board independence and director qualifications (Christy,
Matolcsy, Wright, & Wyatt, 2013).3
Christy et al. (2013) use stock return volatility as their measure of risk when testing the association between
corporate governance variables and risk.
35
36
a nine-year period for over 1500 companies in 85 different industries, and found that
higher returns (ROE) carried lower risk, and lower returns carried higher risk (Raynor,
Ahmed, & Shulz, 2010).
Raynor et al. (2010: 105) state that risk is prospectiveforward-looking and
unavoidably based on subjective assessments of the probability of future outcomeswhile
results (the returns to the investment) are retrospective and much more nearly in the realm
of facts. The objective of this study is not to prove or disprove Bowman's hypothesis,
only to report what we have observed from the data.
We posit that large institutional shareholders are more likely to influence the risk/
performance relation and are more likely to influence proxy voting if their demands are not
met (Johnson, Schnatterly, Johnson, & Chiu, 2010). Subsequently, we expect the size of
institutional investment to influence the association between risk and performance. The
more skin in the game institutional investors have, the greater the motivation to monitor
the risk/return of the investee firm. Recently, Callen and Fang (2013) find that institutional
ownership by public pension funds is significantly negatively associated with the risk of
future stock price crash. Based on the preceding discussion, the following hypothesis is
posited:
H3. A positive association between risk and performance depends on the size of
institutional investment.
3. Method
3.1. Sample selection
The sample period 20062008 is relevant, as the study looks at the association between
risk and performance in a period of escalating risk (the global financial crisis). The
corporate governance profile of the investee firms is examined from 2006, as this provides
a sufficient time lag to account for the Australian Securities Exchange Corporate
Governance Council best practice guidelines that were first introduced in 2004 (Australian
Security Exchange Corporate Governance Council, 2007). The global financial crisis
essentially impacted Australia by the end of January 2008, when the stock market dropped
17% with an ensuing bear market (Brown & Davis, 2008); accordingly, the sample period
ends in 2008.
The sample was constructed from the Top 400 firms in terms of market capitalization
listed on the ASX, which was reduced to 316, as each firm is required to be in the Top 400
for each year (20062008) and to lag variables into 2005. The sample was further reduced
due to the lack of institutional investor data for some companies. The final sample consists
of an unbalanced panel data set of 256 firms listed on the Australian Securities Exchange
for the years 2006 to 2008 (712 observations), based on the availability of the relevant data.
Ownership data is collected from the Osiris database, and archival data on firms' corporate
governance characteristics is hand collected from company annual reports. Financial
variables are provided by Aspect FinAnalysis. Risk measures are obtained from the Centre
for Research in Finance (CRIF) risk measurement service of the Australian School of
Business, University of New South Wales.
37
Next, we test the impact of increasing institutional ownership on firms' riskmanagement practices by considering the interaction between the size of institutional
investment and firm-specific risk on the comprehensiveness of firms' risk-management
policy. The instrumental variable is firm size measured as the log of total assets. The
regression equation for H2 is:
RISKMGT 0 1 INDADJSTD 2 ALLINST 3 LNTA :
38
and performance more closely. The instrumental variables are prior-year performance,
market capitalization, industry, and year. The model for testing H3 is:
PERFORMt 0 1 PERFORMt1 2 INDADJSTD 3 RISKMGT 4 ALLINST
5 LNMKTCAP 6 INDY 7 YEAR :
3
3.3. Endogenous variables
3.3.1. Firm performance
As there are various measures of firm performance used in prior research, this study
uses two measures of performance: accounting performance and firm value. Accounting
performance, the firm's return on assets (ROAt), is likely to be influenced by the firm's
managerial risk-taking behavior. ROAt is an indication of the ability of the firm to produce
accounting-based revenues in excess of actual expenses from a given portfolio of assets
measured as amortized historical costs (Carter, D'Souza, Simkins, & Simpson, 2010).
ROAt is measured as net income plus interest expense multiplied by (1-corporate tax rate)
and divided by total assets less outside equity interests at year end t.
As a measure of firm value, we use Tobin's Q. Tobin's Q is measured as the market
value of the firm divided by replacement value of assets. If Tobin's Q is greater than one,
the market value of shareholder and creditor investment is greater than the amortized
historical cost of the assets. Because Tobin's Q measures the market value of shareholder
and creditor investment, it encompasses a market assessment of the investment opportunity
set and future cash flows of the firm.
This study adopts a simple measure of Tobin's Q as adopted by Agrawal and Knoeber
(1996). The market value of the firm is the market value of equity (total number of issued
shares by the ordinary share price at year end) and debt (total of short and long-term debt).
The replacement value of the firm's assets is the book value of total assets. This simple
measure of Tobin's Q is adopted because it is highly correlated (0.93) with the traditionally
inflation-adjusted figures and for ease of computation. This measure is particularly
relevant, as Australian firms report the re-valued asset figures for property, plant, and
equipment.
3.3.2. Risk
Risk is measured by the standard deviation of the firm's daily stock returns for each
fiscal year (STDEV). It is measured as the standard deviation of the rate of return on equity
for the company, and is expressed as a rate of return per month computed from the
(continuously compounded) equity rates of return for the company's equity.7 The standard
deviation is a measure of historical volatility, and is used by investors to gauge the amount
of expected volatility. This measure encompasses both systematic and unsystematic risk
7
It is measured over the four-year period ending at the companies' annual balance date. All measurable monthly
returns in the four-year interval are included. Individual monthly returns measure total shareholder returns for the
company, including the effects of various capitalization changes such as bonus issues, renounceable and nonrenounceable issues, share splits, consolidations, and dividend distributions.
39
(Carr, 1997), and has been used extensively. We control for industry risk by using i net of
industry risk (INDADJSTD), which results in a measure closer to firm-specific risk.
Similar to pension funds, these are large listed rms that exist solely to invest in other rms.
40
Table 1
Descriptive statistics for all years and each year.
2006 (N = 220)
2007 (N = 241)
2008 (N = 251)
Mean
Median
Std.dev
Mean
Median
Std.dev
Mean
Median
Std.dev
Mean
Median
Std.dev
ALLINST
SENSITIVE
RESISTANT
BDINDEP
BDSIZE
ROAt
TOBQt
MKTCAP ($A000)
MBVE
STDEV
INDADJSTD
ALTMANZSCORE
54.31%
10.47%
43.84%
52%
6.44
0.07
2.58
4,548,105
4.11
11.07
6.51
14.24
47.72%
6.44%
39.17%
50%
6.00
0.07
1.81
547,150
2.65
9.10
4.80
3.46
40.63%
12.31%
32.82%
24%
2.12
0.14
2.68
17,494,656
5.77
6.40
6.01
62.53
43.75%
6.31%
37.44%
51%
6.38
0.06
2.74
4,190,038
4.32
10.07
5.55
12.00
38.01%
3.12%
34.15%
50%
6.00
0.08
1.87
463,694
2.91
8040
3.90
3.66
31.68%
8.233%
27.35%
24%
2.17
0.14
2.91
15,622,609
8.18
6.11
5.79
3.89
47.05%
10.58%
36.46%
52%
6.46
0.07
2.95
5,242,508
5.03
9.80
5.87
15.86
41.06%
7.14%
32.24%
56%
6.00
0.08
2.06
664,432
3.23
8.00
4.40
3.58
35.23%
12.08%
27.78%
24%
2.14
0.14
2.97
19,282,235
6.51
5.77
5.38
53.60
70.55%
14.01%
56.54%
52%
6.48
0.07
2.22
4,195,210
2.94
13.16
7.96
14.62
66.51%
10.31%
51.19%
50%
6.00
0.07
1.40
489,787
1.95
11.20
6.10
3.09
47.02%
14.21%
37.64%
25%
2.06
0.13
2.54
17,191,798
3.64
6.71
6.50
84.58
Variable-dichotomous
Coding
No. of
firms in
sample
% of
sample
Coding
No. of firms
in sample
% of
sample
Coding
No. of
firms in
sample
% of
sample
Coding
No. of
firms in
sample
% of
sample
RISKMGT
0
1
2
1
1
72
217
423
579
142
10.1%
30.5%
59.4%
81.3%
25.8%
0
1
2
1
1
39
108
169
249
39
12.3%
34.2%
53.5%
78.8%
23.0%
0
1
2
1
1
30
99
187
253
44
9.5%
31.3%
59.2%
80.1%
22.5%
0
1
2
1
1
39
108
169
260
59
12.3%
34.2%
53.5%
82.3%
31.6%
AUDITOR
ZSCORE
Definitions:
ALLINST: all institutional ownership divided by total issued shares; SENSITIVE: bank and insurance company ownership divided by total issued shares; RESISTANT:
pension funds, investment firms, and hedge fund ownership divided by total issued shares; BDINDEP: number of independent directors divided by board size; BDSIZE:
number of directors on the board; ROAt: current year ROA [Net Income + Interest Expense (1 Corporate Tax Rate)] / [Total Assets Outside Equity Interests];
TOBQt: the market value of equity and debt divided by the book value of total assets in year t; MBVE: closing share price on the last day of the company's financial year /
shareholders' equity per share; STDEV: total risk is calculated as the standard deviation of firm daily stock returns for each fiscal year; INDADJSTD: total risk is calculated
as the standard deviation of firm daily stock returns for each fiscal year, which is subtracted from the industry standard deviation of daily stock returns;
ALTMANZSCORE = Altman Z score for financial distress; RISKMGT: dummy variables 2 = rigorous RM policies with oversight of a dedicated (separate) committee,
1 = formal RM policies but no separate committee oversight (oversight by board), 0 = no formal RM policies (or dedicated committee oversight); AUDITOR: dummy
variable 1 if audited by top-tier auditor, 0 otherwise; ZSCORE: dummy variable 1 if ZScore b 1.81, 0 if N2.99.
41
4. Results
Table 1 reports the descriptive statistics for the variables related to institutional
investment, firm governance, and financial performance characteristics for the three years.
The results show that there is very little change in the governance variables over time, and
this is to be expected (see Brown, Beekes, & Verhoeven, 2011). However, there is
considerable growth in institutional ownership from 2006, with a mean of 44% of issued
shares, to 2008, where institutional investment is 71% of issued shares on average. We also
identify that the period under investigation is one of increasing total risk. Total risk
(STDEV) is 10.07 in 2006, growing to 13.16 in 2008. Industry adjusted risk is 5.55 in 2006
and 7.96 in 2008.
The results of correlating the transformed variables are reported in Table 2. There are
significant correlations between risk-management, risk, performance, and institutional
ownership, providing some support for the hypotheses. Variance inflation statistics were
run to test the issue of multicollinearity. The VIFs were all below 3, indicating that
multicollinearity is not an issue with the data.
4.1. GLS regression results
Table 3 provides the results of the 3SLS regression model. Column 1 of Table 3 Panel A
shows the effect of institutional ownership on firm-specific risk, as specified by Eq. (1).
Column 2 shows the effect of risk and institutional ownership on risk-management (Eq. (2)).
Column 3 shows the effect of firm-specific risk, risk-management, and institutional
ownership on ROA (Eq. (3)). Panel B shows the same associations using Tobin's Q as the
measure of firm performance.
In Panel A and B of Table 3 we find that firm-specific risk (INADJSTD) is positively
associated with institutional ownership (B = 0.072; p b 0.001), thus supporting H1,
indicating that institutional investors desire more risk-taking. While testing H2, we find
risk-management policy is negatively associated with firm-specific risk (B = 0.059;
p b 0.001) and positively associated institutional ownership (B = 0.004; p b 0.001),
suggesting that institutional investors increase their ownership in firms with a more
comprehensive risk-management policy, because these firms bear the cost of monitoring
suboptimal risk-taking.
Column 3 shows the results from testing H3. Firm accounting performance (ROA) is
positively associated with institutional ownership (B = 0.001; p b 0.001). Thus, even
while directly and simultaneously controlling for endogeneity with 3SLS, the study shows
that increasing the size of institutional ownership is associated with increasing accounting
performance. We interpret this result as suggesting that large investors have sufficient
ownership (skin in the game) to encourage investee firms to monitor and increase
short-term returns.
Next, we determine whether the increase in short term accounting performance is made
to the detriment of long-term firm value (Tobin's Q), which includes the markets'
subjective assessment of future performance. Table 3 Panel B shows the same association
as Panel A when using Tobin's Q as the measure of performance. Tobin's Q is positively
associated with the size of institutional ownership (B = 0.025; p b 0.01). This result is
42
ROAt
TOBQt
INDADJSTD
ALLINST
RISKMGT
NETINTCOV
NETGEAR
LNMKTCAP
INDY
2006
2007
2008
ROAt
TOBQt
INDADJSTD
ALLINST
RISKMGT
NETINTCOV
NETGEAR
LNMKTCAP
INDY
2006
2007
2008
1
0.052
0.406***
0.177***
0.223***
0.001
0.003
0.194***
0.230***
0.031
0.009
0.021
1
0.323***
0.108**
0.113**
0.003
0.208***
0.025
0.161**
0.001
0.094**
0.094***
1
0.141***
0.287***
0.004
0.145***
0.321***
0.428***
0.102**
0.080*
0.178***
1
0.337***
0.023
0.124***
0.290***
0.005
0.175***
0.128***
0.296***
1
0.004
0.19.***7
0.312***
0.174***
0.111**
0.004
0.111**
1
0.070*
0.004
0.020
0.051
0.010
0.039
1
0.184***
0.073*
0.003
0.005
0.002
1
0.015
0.091**
0.109***
0.019
1
0.227***
0.119***
0.102***
1
0.476***
0.495***
1
0.529***
Definitions:
ROAt: current year ROA [Net Income + Interest Expense (1 Corporate Tax Rate)] / [Total Assets Outside Equity Interests; TOBQt: the market value of equity and
debt divided by the book value of total assets in year t; INDADJSTD: total risk is calculated as the standard deviation of firm daily stock returns for each fiscal year, which
is subtracted from the industry standard deviation of daily stock returns; ALLINST: institutional ownership as a percentage of total issued shares; RISKMGT: dummy
variables 2 = rigorous RM policies with oversight of a dedicated (separate) committee, 1 = formal RM policies but no separate committee oversight (oversight by board),
0 = no formal RM policies (or dedicated committee oversight); LNMKTCAP: closing share price on the last day of the company's financial year number of shares
outstanding at the end of the period, logged; NETGEARING: (Short term debt + long term debt cash) / shareholders' equity; NETINTCOV: earnings before interest and
tax / net interest (income expense); INDY: dummy variable 1 for metals and mining industry, 0 otherwise; YEAR: dummy variable 1 for 2006, 2007, and 2008; 0
otherwise.
Table 2
Pair-wise correlations of variables. This table provides the correlation coefficients of variables. The tests are significant at 0.01***; 0.05**; 0.10* levels (N = 676).
43
Table 3
Determinants of firm performance (ROA and Tobin's Q). This table presents the instrumental variables in the form
of 3SLS regression models. The first-stage model is not reported for parsimony. The results of simultaneously
testing the three equations for the role of institutional investors on risk, risk management, and performance are
presented. Two-tailed Z statistics in parentheses significant at 0.01***; 0.05**; 0.10* levels.
Panel A: ROAt
CONS
INADJSTD
RISKMGT
ROAt
INADJSTD
RISKMGT
TOBQt
27.160
(21.32)***
1.584
(13.47)***
0.059
( 20.85)***
0.212
( 2.04)**
0.003
(0.72)
0.147
( 2.37)***
0.001
(3.08)***
25.921
(17.65)***
1.156
(8.48)***
0.061
( 15.67)***
30.129
(7.61)***
1.029
(5.39)***
3.311
( 1.19)
0.025
(2.12)**
INDADJSTD
RISKMGT
ALLINST
NETGEARING
NETINTCOV
16.478
( 17.46)***
0.072
0.004
(6.73)***
(7.58)***
0.044
(0.40)
0.00004
( 0.14)
LNMKTCAP
15.395
( 13.43)***
0.064
0.004
(6.08)***
(7.27)***
0.087
(0.58)
0.0001
( 0.58)
0.021
(3.33)***
LNTA
0.003
(0.52)
ROAt 1 / TOBQt 1
INDY
2007
2008
N
CH12
p
Panel B: TOBQt
688
382.37
0.00
688
559.36
0.00
1.493
(6.96)***
0.007
(0.85)
0.573
(13.07)***
0.119
( 4.39)***
0.005
(0.43)
0.013
( 0.71)
688
675
513.49
222.08
0.00
0.00
675
406.06
0.00
0.092
(0.78)
6.912
( 5.97)***
0.955
(2.21)**
1.764
( 2.41)***
675
195.62
0.00
Definitions:
INDADJSTD: total risk is calculated as the standard deviation of firm daily stock returns for each fiscal year,
which is subtracted from the industry standard deviation of daily stock returns; ROAt: current year ROA [Net
Income + Interest Expense (1 Corporate Tax Rate)] / [Total Assets Outside Equity Interests; ROAt 1:
prior year ROA; TOBQt: the market value of equity and debt divided by the book value of total assets in year t;
TOBQt 1: prior year TOBQ; RISKMGT: dummy variables 2 = rigorous RM policies with oversight of a
dedicated (separate) committee, 1 = formal RM policies but no separate committee oversight (oversight by
board), 0 = no formal RM policies (or dedicated committee oversight); ALLINST: institutional ownership as a
percentage of total issued shares; LNMKTCAP: closing share price on the last day of the company's financial
year number of shares outstanding at the end of the period, logged; NETGEARING: (Short term debt + long
term debt cash) / shareholders' equity; NETINTCOV: earnings before interest and tax / net interest (income
expense); LNTAt = Total assets, logged; INDY: dummy variable 1 for metals and mining industry, 0 otherwise;
YEAR: dummy variable 1 for 2006, 2007, and 2008; 0 otherwise.
contrary to Velury, Reisch, and O'Reilly's (2003) prediction that institutional investors
prefer short term profit (accounting profit) over long-term future returns (Tobin's Q).
Consequently, this paper provides some preliminary findings that show that institutional
44
Table 4
Determinants of firm performance (ROA and Tobin's Q). This table presents the second-stage results of the
Heckman's (1979) two-step procedure of the determinants of institutional ownership, which is a probit model that
determines when the dependent variable (institutional ownership) in the second stage is not missing for
performance. The first-stage is not reported for parsimony. This table presents the second-stage of testing the
determinants of firm performance using random effects GLS with cluster robust standard errors. MILLS is the
correction term computed from the probit model in the first stage. A three-way interaction term for: risk,
risk-management, and institutional ownership test the three equations. Two-tailed Z statistics in parentheses
significant at 0.01***, 0.05**, and 0.10* levels.
CONS
ROAt-1/TOBQt-1
INDADJSTD
ALLINST
RISKMGT
INDADJ RISKMGT ALLINST
LNMKTCAP
INDY
MILLS
2007
2008
N
Firms
Wald
Rsq
ROAt
TOBQt
Coef.
Coef.
0.023
(0.42)
0.450
(6.01)***
0.003
( 2.19)**
0.00003
(0.20)
0.003
( 0.46)
0.00002
(2.18)**
0.003
(0.76)
0.040
(2.59)***
0.025
(1.36)
0.003
( 0.36)
0.009
( 1.16)
710
255
352.18***
0.775
1.62
( 1.31)
0.372
(3.59)***
0.154
(3.87)***
0.008
(2.14)**
0.082
(0.47)
0.001
( 3.22)***
0.115
(1.90)*
0.109
(0.31)
0.628
(1.36)
0.089
(0.57)
0.755
( 4.72)***
697
250
100.16***
0.638
Definitions:
ROAt: current year ROA [Net Income + Interest Expense (1 Corporate Tax Rate)] / [Total Assets Outside
Equity Interests]; ROAt 1: prior year ROA; TOBQt: the market value of equity and debt divided by the book value of
total assets in year t; TOBQt 1: prior year TOBQ; INDADJSTD: total risk is calculated as the standard deviation of
firm daily stock returns for each fiscal year, which is subtracted from the industry standard deviation of daily stock
returns; ALLINST: institutional ownership as a percentage of total issued shares; RISKMGT: dummy variables 2 =
rigorous RM policies with oversight of a dedicated (separate) committee, 1 = formal RM policies but no separate
committee oversight (oversight by board), 0 = no formal RM policies (or dedicated committee oversight);
INDADJ RISKMGT ALLINST: interaction of risk, risk-management, and institutional ownership; LNMKTCAP:
closing share price on the last day of the company's financial year number of shares outstanding at the end of the
period, logged; INDY: dummy variable 1 for metals and mining industry, 0 otherwise; MILLS: Inverse Mills Ratio
computed from the first stage regression; YEAR: dummy variable 1 for 2006, 2007, and 2008; 0 otherwise.
45
46
47
Table 5
Determinants of firm performance (ROA and Tobin's Q). This table presents the instrumental variables in the form
of 3SLS regression models. The first-stage model is not reported for parsimony. The results of simultaneously
testing the three equations for the role of institutional investor type (pressure sensitive and pressure resistant) on
risk, risk management, and performance are presented. Two-tailed Z statistics in parentheses significant at
0.01***, 0.05**, and 0.10* levels.
Panel A: ROAt
CONS
RISKMGT
ROAt
INADJSTD
RISKMGT
TOBQt
27.609
(21.58)***
1.593
(14.13)***
0.059
( 21.22)***
0.217
( 2.06)**
0.003
(0.75)
0.145
( 2.31)**
0.0007
(1.18)
0.001
(3.51)***
26.440
(17.87)***
1.537
(8.93)***
0.060
( 16.02)***
30.483
(7.61)***
1.033
(5.44)***
3.110
( 1.11)
0.009
( 0.32)
0.033
(3.02)***
INDADJSTD
RISKMGT
SENSITIVE
RESISTENT
NETGEARING
NETINTCOV
Panel B: TOBQt
INADJSTD
16.739
( 17.84)***
0.156
(4.16)***
0.050
(3.48)***
0.040
(0.38)
0.00004
( 0.13)
0.009
(4.25)***
0.003
(3.62)***
LNMKTCAP
0.009
(4.27)
0.003
(3.46)***
1.491
(7.00)***
0.021
(3.33)***
LNTA
0.002
(0.48)
ROAt 1 / TOBQt-1
INDY
2007
2008
N
CH12
p
15.717
( 13.71)***
0.148
(4.16)***
0.043
(3.15)***
0.083
(0.58)
0.0002
( 0.69)
688
401.48
0.00
688
576.79
0.00
0.006
(0.77)
0.573
(13.10)***
0.119
( 4.40)***
0.007
(0.57)
0.013
( 0.70)
688
516.61
0.00
675
232.35
0.00
675
419.42
0.00
0.092
(0.78)
6.918
( 6.02)***
1.088
(2.64)***
1.736
( 2.44)**
675
198.74
0.00
Definitions:
INDADJSTD: total risk is calculated as the standard deviation of firm daily stock returns for each fiscal year,
which is subtracted from the industry standard deviation of daily stock returns; ROAt: current year ROA [Net
Income + Interest Expense (1 Corporate Tax Rate)] / [Total Assets Outside Equity Interests; ROAt 1:
prior year ROA; TOBQt: the market value of equity and debt divided by the book value of total assets in year t;
TOBQt 1: prior year TOBQ; RISKMGT: dummy variables 2 = rigorous RM policies with oversight of a
dedicated (separate) committee, 1 = formal RM policies but no separate committee oversight (oversight by
board), 0 = no formal RM policies (or dedicated committee oversight); SENSITIVE: bank and insurance
company ownership divided by total issued shares; RESISTANT: pension funds, investment firms, and hedge
fund ownership divided by total issued shares; LNMKTCAP: closing share price on the last day of the company's
financial year number of shares outstanding at the end of the period, logged; NETGEARING: (Short term
debt + long term debt cash) / shareholders' equity; NETINTCOV: earnings before interest and tax / net
interest (income expense); LNTAt = Total assets, logged; INDY: dummy variable 1 for metals and mining
industry, 0 otherwise; YEAR: dummy variable 1 for 2006, 2007, and 2008; 0 otherwise.
48
financial distress and default risk (Aslan & Kumar, 2012; Becker & Stromberg, 2012;
Bryan et al., 2013).
Altman (1968) derived a cut-off point, or optimum Z value, by observing firms that
were misclassified by the DA model in the initial sample. He concluded that all firms with
a Z score of greater than 2.99 clearly fall into the non-bankrupt sector, while those firms
with a Z below 1.81 are bankrupt.13 Consequently, firms are classified as firms with a Z of
1.81 as a high probability of bankruptcy and coded 1, and firms with a Z of 2.99 as a
low probability of bankruptcy and coded 0, thus excluding the gray area due to the
propensity of misclassification. Altman (1968) suggests that the predictive model is useful
for screening out undesirable investments, as investors tend to underestimate the extent of
financial difficulties of the firms that eventually go bankrupt.
The results reported in Table 6 Panel A, where firm performance is measured as ROA,
are consistent with the results using firm-specific risk. That is, only pressure-resistant
institutional investors monitor the short-term performance of potentially financiallydistressed firms as short-term performance increases with pressure-resistant institutional
ownership. However, when using Tobin's Q, which measures firm value, while taking into
consideration future cash flows, we find that Tobin's Q is negatively associated with the
size of both types of institutional ownership. This result suggests that all types of institutional
investors exit rather than monitor or pressure financially-distressed firms to increase
long-term value.
This result is consistent with Frino, Jones, Lepone, and Wong (2014), who find that
following the announcement of financial distress, some institutional investors exit the
stock. However, the withdrawal is gradual and is driven by active institutional investors
reacting to the release of the financially-distressed firm's last publicly released financial
report. Their sample of Australian firms (19952006) is before the GFC, while our sample
is in the period leading up to and including the GFC. Interestingly, we find a particularly
strong positive relationship between a comprehensive risk-management policy and Tobin's
Q for distressed firms. This result suggests that in times of distress, stringent riskmanagement is needed to take into account long-term value creation.
5. Conclusion
The global financial crisis has focused attention on the consequences of short-term
investment strategies and urges a reassessment of the balance between risk-taking and
risk-management (Harper Ho, 2010). Kashyap, Rajan, and Stein (2008) suggest that the
global financial crisis resulted from excessive risk-taking, highlighting the importance of
monitoring risk. In the period leading up to the global financial crisis, investors sanctioned
high levels of risk in the pursuit of high returns. Consequently, it is important to determine
whether institutional investors differ in their ability to influence managements' pursuit of
short-term returns or firm value.
13
In Altman's revised model (2000), analyzing rms up to 1999, he nds that the gray area is wider as the lower
boundary is 1.23. However, he suggests that the revised model is weaker than the original. Consequently, the
original model is used in this study.
49
Table 6
Determinants of firm performance (ROA and Tobin's Q). This table presents the instrumental variables in the form
of 3SLS regression models. The first-stage model is not reported for parsimony. The results of simultaneously
testing the three equations for the role of institutional investor type (pressure sensitive and pressure resistant) on
the probability of bankruptcy risk (ZSCORE: Dummy variable 1 if ZScore b 1.81, 0 if N2.99), risk management,
and performance are presented. Two-tailed Z statistics in parentheses significant at 0.01 ***; 0.05**; 0.10* levels.
Panel A: ROAt
CONS
RISKMGT
ROAt
ZSCORE
RISKMGT
TOBQt
0.119
(1.34)
1.027
( 3.13)***
0.301
( 2.14)**
0.170
( 1.22)
0.033
( 0.69)
0.130
( 1.00)
0.001
(1.27)
0.001
(2.21)**
0.031
(0.32)
0.666
(2.08)**
0.040
( 0.28)
107.47
(7.19)***
47.627
( 12.98)***
87.75
(10.51)***
0.410
( 5.80)***
0.133
( 5.29)***
ZSCORE
RISKMGT
SENSITIVE
RESISTANT
NETGEARING
NETINTCOV
0.010
(0.14)
0.003
(1.69)*
0.001
(1.85)*
0.095
(6.94)***
0.0002
(1.18)
0.008
(2.81)***
0.003
(2.49)***
LNMKTCAP
0.080
(1.07)
0.02
(1.29)
0.001
(1.46)***
0.088
(6.45)***
0.0002
(1.50)
0.007
(2.63)***
0.002
(2.22)**
10.199
( 8.60)***
0.019
(1.37)
LNTA
0.120
(6.78)***
ROAt-1/TOBQt-1
INDY
2007
2008
N
CH12
p
Panel B: TOBQt
ZSCORE
550
81.74
0.00
550
100.22
0.00
0.099
(5.75)***
0.516
(7.55)***
0.089
( 1.91)*
0.004
(0.21)
0.002
( 0.08)
550
431.63
0.00
540
80.52
0.00
540
91.26
0.00
0.205
( 1.80)*
26.737
( 8.00)***
9.956
( 7.40)***
12.631
( 8.09)***
540
398.96
0.00
Definitions:
ZSCORE: dummy variable 1 if ZScore b 1.81, 0 if N2.99; ROAt: current year ROA [Net Income + Interest
Expense (1 Corporate Tax Rate)] / [Total Assets Outside Equity Interests; ROAt 1: prior year ROA;
TOBQt: the market value of equity and debt divided by the book value of total assets in year t; TOBQt 1: prior
year TOBQ; RISKMGT: dummy variables 2 = rigorous RM policies with oversight of a dedicated (separate)
committee, 1 = formal RM policies but no separate committee oversight (oversight by board), 0 = no formal RM
policies (or dedicated committee oversight); SENSITIVE: bank and insurance company ownership divided by
total issued shares; RESISTANT: pension funds, investment firms, and hedge fund ownership divided by total
issued shares; LNMKTCAP: closing share price on the last day of the company's financial year number of
shares outstanding at the end of the period, logged; NETGEARING: (Short term debt + long term debt cash) /
shareholders' equity; NETINTCOV: earnings before interest and tax / net interest (income expense);
LNTAt = Total assets, logged; INDY: dummy variable 1 for metals and mining industry, 0 otherwise; YEAR:
dummy variable 1 for 2006, 2007, and 2008; 0 otherwise.
50
51
Aguilera, R. V., Rupp, D. E., Williams, C. A., & Ganapathi, J. (2007). Putting the S back in CSR: A multi-level
theory of social change in organizations. Academy of Management Review, 32(3), 836863.
Almazan, A., Hartzell, J., & Starks, L. (2005). Active institutional shareholders and managerial compensation.
Financial Management, 34, 534.
Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Journal of
Finance, 189209.
Altman, E. I. (2000). Predicting financial distress of companies. Retrieved from http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~ealtman/
Zscores.pdf
Aslan, H., & Kumar, P. (2012). Strategic ownership structure and the cost of debt. Review of Financial Studies,
25(7), 22572299.
Australian Security Exchange Corporate Governance Council (2007). Corporate governance principles and
recommendations (2nd ed.). Sydney: Australian Security Exchange Corporate Council.
Baysinger, B. D., Kosnik, R. D., & Turk, T. A. (1991). Effects of board and ownership structure on corporate
strategy. Academy of Management Journal, 34(1), 205214.
Bebchuk, L. A., & Weisbach, M. S. (2010). The state of corporate governance research. Review of Financial
Studies, 23(3), 939961.
Becker, B., & Strmberg, P. (2012). Fiduciary duties and equity-debt holder conflicts. Review of Financial
Studies, 25(6), 19311996.
Bowman, E. H. (1980). A risk/return paradox for strategic management. Sloan Management Review, 21, 2731.
Bryan, D., Fernando, G. D., & Tripathy, A. (2013). Bankruptcy risk, productivity and firm strategy. Review of
Accounting and Finance, 12(4), 309326.
Brickley, J., Lease, R., & Smith, C. (1988). Ownership structure and voting on antitakeover amendments. Journal
of Financial Economics, 20, 267292.
Brown, P., Beekes, W., & Verhoeven, P. (2011). Corporate governance, accounting and finance: A review.
Accounting and Finance, 51(1), 96172.
Brown, C., & Davis, K. (2008). The sub-prime crisis down under. Journal of Applied Finance, 18, 1628.
Bushee, B. J., & Noe, C. (2000). Corporate disclosure practices, institutional investors and stock return volatility.
Journal of Accounting Research, 38(supplement), 171202.
Callen, J. L., & Fang, X. (2013). Institutional investor stability and crash risk: Monitoring versus short-termism?
Journal of Banking and Finance, 37, 0473063.
Carr, L. L. (1997). Strategic determinants of executive compensation in small publicly traded firms. Journal of
Small Business Management, 35(3), 112.
Carter, D., D'Souza, F., Simkins, B., & Simpson, W. G. (2010). The gender and ethnic diversity of US boards and
board committees and firm financial performance. Corporate Governance: An International Review, 18(5),
396414.
Christy, J. A., Matolcsy, Z. P., Wright, A., & Wyatt, A. (2013). Do board characteristics influence the
shareholders' assessment of risk for small and large firms? Abacus. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/Abac.12005.
Frino, A., Jones, S., Lepone, A., & Wong, J. B. (2014). Market behavior of institutional investors around
bankruptcy announcements. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 41(1,2), 270295.
Gillan, S. L., & Starks, L. T. (2000). Corporate governance proposals and shareholder activism: The role of
institutional investors. Journal of Financial Economics, 57, 275305.
Gillan, S. L., & Starks, L. T. (2003). Institutional investors, corporate ownership, and corporate governance:
Global perspectives. In L. Sun (Ed.), Ownership and governance of enterprises: Recent innovative
developments (pp. 3668). New York: Palgrave/Macmillan.
Gillan, S. L., & Starks, L. T. (2007). The evolution of shareholder activism in the United States. Journal of
Applied Corporate Finance, 19, 5573.
Gordon, J. N. (2010). Executive compensation and corporate governance in financial firms: The case for
convertible equity-based pay. Available at http://ssrn.com/abstract=1633906
Gorter, J., & Bikker, J. A. (2013). Investment risk taking by institutional investors. Applied Economics, 45(33),
46294640.
Gordon, J. N., & Muller, C. (2011). Confronting financial crisis: Dodd-Franks dangers and the case for a systemic
emergency insurance fund. Yale Journal on Regulation, 28(1), 151211.
Gow, I. D., Ormazabal, G., & Taylor, D. J. (2010). Correcting for cross-sectional and time-series dependence in
accounting research. The Accounting Review, 85(2), 483512.
52
Graves, S. B. (1988). Institutional ownership and corporate R&D in the computer industry. Academy of
Management Journal, 31(2), 417428.
Harper Ho, V. E. (2010). Enlightened shareholder value: Corporate governance beyond the shareholder
stakeholder divide. Journal of Corporate Law, 36, 59112.
Hawley, J. P., & Williams, A. T. (2000). The rise of fiduciary capitalism: How institutional investors can make
corporate American more democratic. University of Pennsylvania Press.
Heckman, J. J. (1976). The common structure of statistical models of truncation, sample selection and limited
dependent variables and a simple estimator for such models. Annals of Economic and Social Measurement,
5(4), 475492.
Jensen, M. C., & Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behaviour, agency costs and ownership
structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 305360.
Johnson, R. A., Schnatterly, K., Johnson, S. G., & Chiu, S. -C. (2010). Institutional investors and institutional
environment: A comparative analysis and review. Journal of Management Studies, 47(8), 15901613.
Johnston, J., & DiNardo, J. (1997). Econometric methods. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Kashyap, A., Rajan, R., & Stein, J. (2008). Rethinking capital regulation. Working paper. University of Chicago.
Parrino, R., Sias, R. W., & Starks, L. T. (2003). Voting with their feet: Institutional investors and CEO turnover.
Journal of Financial Economics, 68, 346.
Pathan, S. (2009). Strong boards, CEO power and bank risk-taking. Journal of Banking and Finance, 33(7),
13401350.
Petersen, M. (2009). Estimating standard errors in financial panel data sets: Comparing approaches. The Review of
Financial Studies, 22(1), 435480.
Pomfret, R. (2009). The post-2007 financial crisis and policy challenges facing Australia. Economic Papers,
28(3), 255263.
Raynor, M., Ahmed, M., & Shulz, J. (2010). It's a mad, mad, mad, mad world. Deloitte Review, 7, 101111.
Reserve Bank of Australia, RBA (2010). The global financial crisis and its impact on Australia. Year Book
Australia, 200910, 1301.0.
Setia-Atmaja, L., Tanewski, G. A., & Skully, M. (2009). The role of dividends, debt and board structure in the
governance of family controlled firms. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 36(7,8), 863898.
Sidhu, B., & Tan, H. C. (2011). The performance of equity analysts during the global financial crisis. Australian
Accounting Review, 21(1), 3243.
Stapledon, G. P. (1996). Disincentives to activism by institutional investors in listed Australian companies. Sydney
Law Review, 18, 152192.
Subramaniam, N., McManus, L., & Zhang, J. (2009). Corporate governance, firm characteristics and riskmanagement committee formation in Australian companies. Managerial Auditing Journal, 24(4), 316339.
Velury, U., Reisch, J. T., & O'Reilly, D. M. (2003). Institutional ownership and selection of industry specialist
auditors. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 21, 3548.
Walker, D. (2009). A review of corporate governance in UK banks and other financial industry entities: Final
recommendations. Retrieved 20 May 2010. from http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/walker_review_261109.pdf
Webb, R., Beck, M., & McKinnon, R. (2003). Problems and limitations of institutional investor participation in
corporate governance. Corporate governance: An international review, 11, 6573.
Woidtke, T. (2002). Agents watching agents? Evidence from pension fund ownership and firm value. Journal of
Financial Economics, 63, 99131.
Xu, Y., Jiang, L., Fargher, N., & Carson, E. (2011). Audit reports in Australia during the Global Financial Crisis.
Australian Accounting Review, 21(1), 2231.