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ABSTRACT
Margala Hills near Pakistan's Capital, Islamabad is an
area where lot of recreational and hotelling activities are
planned to construct on its Northern slopes. This paper
investigates
seismotectonics and
seismic risk
assessment for the future development in the light of
Oct 8, 2005 earthquake that caused a huge damage of
human life and property in the effected areas. It
registered 7.6 on the moment magnitude scale making it
a major earthquake. With the help of recent data,
geological interpretations were carried out and high
seismic areas have been identified.
Computer modeling studies with the use of historic
and recent seismic data provided peak ground
acceleration, peak ground velocity, response spectra
and maximum credible earthquake of the investigated
area. This study indicated that Peak Ground
Acceleration (PGA) for soil and rock is 258 gals (0.26 g),
Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) for soil is 31.70 cm/sec and
for rock 21.69 cm/sec. Response Spectra Acceleration
(200 year return period) for soil site= Max PSA 755 gals
occurred at period of 0.2 secs; for rock site = Max PSA
777 gals occurred at period of 0.15 secs. Maximum
Credible Earthquake (MCE) includes both the low and
high values of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) in the
context of Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) are 0.46g and
1.02g respectively. Recommendations were made for
the earthquake resistant design of structures and
buildings in the vicinity of Margala Hills.
INTRODUCTION
Earthquakes are caused by different reasons. They may
be caused by sudden slip on faults or movement/grinding of
tectonic plates or due to volcanic activities. Causes of
earthquakes and active faults in northern Pakistan are
associated with the movement of the Indian Plate
northwardly at a rate of about 40 mm/yr and colliding with
the Eurasian continent. This collision is causing uplift of
mountains. As a result it produces the highest mountain
peaks in the world including the Himalayan, the Karakoram,
the Pamir and the Hindu Kush ranges.
As the Indian plate moves northward, it is being
subducted or pushed beneath the Eurasian plate. Much of
the compressional motion between these two colliding plates
has been and continues to be accommodated by slip on a
_______________________________________________
1
66
.4174
Kotla
.4525
Study Area
Pir Suhawa
Gokina
Margala
Nilan N
Road
. 4484
Forest Boundary
Sara
0
1000 m
Scale
Zulfiqar et al.
QUATERNARY SYSTEM
Quaternary system that widely distributes on Potwar
Plateau is composed of highly cemented conglomerate
named Lei Conglomerate and unconsolidated Alluvial
deposits. Lei conglomerate is composed of highly
consolidated gravel layers by the deposition of calcium
carbonate. It has no specific horizon and sporadically
distributed with several tens of meter in maximum thickness.
Alluvial deposits consist of unconsolidated silt, sand, gravels
and boulders and they bear main aquifers in the study area.
Their maximum thickness is supposed to be more than 150
m. Because materials become coarser toward the
mountains, moderate yield aquifers are distributed along the
foot of the mountains. Few of the shallow (50 m) and deepseated (122 m) water wells were reported to be pumping
muddy water in the Islamabad watershed after the event of
October 08, 2005 earthquake.
GEOLOGICAL STRUCTURE
The bedrocks in the study area are highly folded, faulted
and over thrusted because of Himalayan uplift during
Pliocene epoch. The deformational axes are running in
ENE-WSW direction. Among the many deformational units,
MBT is the major fault. It has considerably wide fractured
zone accompanied with many derivative faults and moreover
some epicenters of earthquake have concentrated along
certain part of this fault. Figure 2 shows the tectonic features
of the area.
67
68
Zulfiqar et al.
Panjal Thrust
Jhelum Fault in N-S trend
Manshera Thrust
Murree Thrust
P E AK G R O U N D V E L O C IT Y R O C K
140
120
100
PGA (Gals)
69
80
60
40
20
0
10
100
1000
10000
100000
R e tu rn P e rio d (Y e a rs )
200
180
160
P
140
G
V 120
(c 100
m / 80
se 60
40
20
0
10
100
1000
10000
100000
P E AK G R O U N D V E L O C IT Y R O C K
140
120
PGA (Gals)
100
80
60
40
20
0
10
100
1000
10000
100000
R e tu rn P e rio d (Ye a rs )
70
1800
1600
PSA1 200 y
1400
PSA2 500 y
1200
PSA3 1000 y
1000
PSA4 2000 y
800
600
400
200
0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Building Height
2 story
5 story
10 story
20 story
30 story
1800
1600
PSA1 200 y
1400
PSA2 500 y
1200
PSA3 1000 y
1000
PSA4 2000 y
800
600
400
200
0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Zulfiqar et al.
71
Table 1. Summary results of maximum credible earthquake, peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity.
MAXIMUM CREDIBLE EARTHQUAKES
[ PGA & PGV ]
For Source at Islamabad Buildings/structures
Sources
Magnitude
r0
Low High
(km)
PGA
PGV
PGA Low
(km)
(km)
(g)
PGV(Rock)
High
Low
(g)
(cm/sec)
PGV(Soil)
High
Low
High
(cm/sec) (cm/sec)
(cm/sec)
MBT
6.7
8.2
4.12
64.129
348.382
94.854
515.294
Margala Thrust
6.7
7.7
0.5
4.03
65.629
202.811
97.072
299.980
Hazara Thrust
6.7
7.5
15
15.52
0.206 0.315
15.909
39.231
23.530
58.027
Panjal Thrust
6.8
7.7
26
26.31
9.853
27.199
14.573
40.230
Jhelum Fault
7.0
7.5
45
6.421
11.288
9.498
16.696
Manshera Thrust
6.5
7.3
70
2.027
4.999
2.999
7.394
Murree Thrust
6.7
7.2
80
80.1
2.095
3.682
3.098
5.446
17
250
2.5
PSA(Low)
PSRV (cm/sec)
PSA (g)
200
PSA(High)
2
1.5
1
150
100
PSV(Low)
50
0.5
0
PSV(High)
Period (Sec)
Period (Sec)
400
2.5
PRSV (cm/sec)
PSA(High)
PSA (g)
350
PSA(Low)
1.5
1
300
250
200
150
100
PSA(Low)
0.5
50
PSA(High)
0
0
Period (Sec)
2
3
Period (Sec)
72
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Mr. M. Iqbal, Principal Geologist at HDIP Islamabad is
acknowledged for critical technical review and suggestions.
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