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publication, or for any errors which, despite careful preparation and checking, may appear.
European Commission
Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs
EUROPEAN ECONOMY
7/2009
FOREWORD
The European economy is in the midst of the deepest recession since the 1930s, with real GDP projected
to shrink by some 4% in 2009, the sharpest contraction in the history of the European Union. Although
signs of improvement have appeared recently, recovery remains uncertain and fragile. The EUs response
to the downturn has been swift and decisive. Aside from intervention to stabilise, restore and reform the
banking sector, the European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP) was launched in December 2008. The
objective of the EERP is to restore confidence and bolster demand through a coordinated injection of
purchasing power into the economy complemented by strategic investments and measures to shore up
business and labour markets. The overall fiscal stimulus, including the effects of automatic stabilisers,
amounts to 5% of GDP in the EU.
According to the Commission's analysis, unless policies take up the new challenges, potential GDP in the
EU could fall to a permanently lower trajectory, due to several factors. First, protracted spells of
unemployment in the workforce tend to lead to a permanent loss of skills. Second, the stock of equipment
and infrastructure will decrease and become obsolete due to lower investment. Third, innovation may be
hampered as spending on research and development is one of the first outlays that businesses cut back on
during a recession. Member States have implemented a range of measures to provide temporary support
to labour markets, boost investment in public infrastructure and support companies. To ensure that the
recovery takes hold and to maintain the EUs growth potential in the long-run, the focus must
increasingly shift from short-term demand management to supply-side structural measures. Failing to do
so could impede the restructuring process or create harmful distortions to the Internal Market. Moreover,
while clearly necessary, the bold fiscal stimulus comes at a cost. On the current course, public debt in the
euro area is projected to reach 100% of GDP by 2014. The Stability and Growth Pact provides the
flexibility for the necessary fiscal stimulus in this severe downturn, but consolidation is inevitable once
the recovery takes hold and the risk of an economic relapse has diminished sufficiently. While respecting
obligations under the Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact, a differentiated approach across countries
is appropriate, taking into account the pace of recovery, fiscal positions and debt levels, as well as the
projected costs of ageing, external imbalances and risks in the financial sector.
Preparing exit strategies now, not only for fiscal stimulus, but also for government support for the
financial sector and hard-hit industries, will enhance the effectiveness of these measures in the short term,
as this depends upon clarity regarding the pace with which such measures will be withdrawn. Since
financial markets, businesses and consumers are forward-looking, expectations are factored into decision
making today. The precise timing of exit strategies will depend on the strength of the recovery, the
exposure of Member States to the crisis and prevailing internal and external imbalances. Part of the fiscal
stimulus stemming from the EERP will taper off in 2011, but needs to be followed up by sizeable fiscal
consolidation in following years to reverse the unsustainable debt build-up. In the financial sector,
government guarantees and holdings in financial institutions will need to be gradually unwound as the
private sector gains strength, while carefully balancing financial stability with competitiveness
considerations. Close coordination will be important. Vertical coordination between the various strands
of economic policy (fiscal, structural, financial) will ensure that the withdrawal of government measures
is properly sequenced -- an important consideration as turning points may differ across policy areas.
Horizontal coordination between Member States will help them to avoid or manage cross-border
economic spillover effects, to benefit from shared learning and to leverage relationships with the outside
world. Moreover, within the euro area, close coordination will ensure that Member States growth
trajectories do not diverge as the economy recovers. Addressing the underlying causes of diverging
competitiveness must be an integral part of any exit strategy. The exit strategy should also ensure that
Europe maintains its place at the frontier of the low-carbon revolution by investing in renewable energies,
low carbon technologies and "green" infrastructure. The aim of this study is to provide the analytical
underpinning of such a coordinated exit strategy.
Marco Buti
Director-General, DG Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission
EU-25
EU-27
Currencies
EUR
BGN
CZK
DKK
EEK
GBP
HUF
JPY
LTL
LVL
PLN
RON
SEK
euro
New Bulgarian lev
Czech koruna
Danish krone
Estonian kroon
Pound sterling
Hungarian forint
Japanese yen
Lithuanian litas
Latvian lats
New Polish zloty
New Romanian leu
Swedish krona
EU-10
EU-15
iv
Belgium
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Denmark
Germany
Estonia
Greece
Spain
France
Ireland
Italy
Cyprus
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Hungary
Malta
The Netherlands
Austria
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovenia
Slovakia
Finland
Sweden
United Kingdom
SKK
USD
Slovak koruna
US dollar
Other abbreviations
BEPG
Broad Economic Policy Guidelines
CESR
Committee of European Securities Regulators
EA
Euro area
ECB
European Central Bank
ECOFIN
European Council of Economics and Finance Ministers
EDP
Excessive deficit procedure
EMU
Economic and monetary union
ERM II
Exchange Rate Mechanism, mark II
ESCB
European System of Central Banks
Eurostat
Statistical Office of the European Communities
FDI
Foreign direct investment
GDP
Gross domestic product
GDPpc
Gross Domestic Product per capita
GLS
Generalised least squares
HICP
Harmonised index of consumer prices
HP
Hodrick-Prescott filter
ICT
Information and communications technology
IP
Industrial Production
MiFID
Market in Financial Instruments Directive
NAWRU
Non accelerating wage inflation rate of unemployment
NEER
Nominal effective exchange rate
NMS
New Member States
OCA
Optimum currency area
OLS
Ordinary least squares
R&D
Research and development
RAMS
Recently Acceded Member States
REER
Real effective exchange rate
SGP
Stability and Growth Pact
TFP
Total factor productivity
ULC
Unit labour costs
VA
Value added
VAT
Value added tax
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This special edition of the EU Economy: 2009 Review "Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes,
Consequences and Responses" was prepared under the responsibility of Marco Buti, Director-General for
Economic and Financial Affairs, and Istvn P. Szkely, Director for Economic Studies and Research.
Paul van den Noord, Adviser in the Directorate for Economic Studies and Research, served as the global
editor of the report.
The report has drawn on substantive contributions by Ronald Albers, Alfonso Arpaia, Uwe Bwer,
Declan Costello, Jan in 't Veld, Lars Jonung, Gabor Koltay, Willem Kooi, Gert-Jan Koopman,
Martin Hradisky, Julia Lendvai, Mauro Griorgo Marrano, Gilles Mourre, Micha Narony,
Moiss Orellana Pea, Dario Paternoster, Lucio Pench, Stphanie Riso, Werner Rger, Eric Ruscher,
Alessandra Tucci, Alessandro Turrini, Lukas Vogel and Guntram Wolff.
The report benefited from extensive comments by John Berrigan, Daniel Daco, Oliver Dieckmann,
Reinhard Felke, Vitor Gaspar, Lars Jonung, Sven Langedijk, Mary McCarthy, Matthias Mors,
Andr Sapir, Massimo Suardi, Istvn P. Szkely, Alessandro Turrini, Michael Thiel and David Vergara.
Statistical assistance was provided by Adam Kowalski, Daniela Porubska and Christopher Smyth. Adam
Kowalski and Greta Haems were responsible for the lay-out of the report.
Comments on the report would be gratefully received and should be sent, by mail or e-mail, to:
Paul van den Noord
European Commission
Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs
Directorate for Economic Studies and Research
Office BU-1 05-189
B-1049 Brussels
E-mail: paul.vandennoord@ec.europa.eu
vi
CONTENTS
Executive Summary
Part I:
2.
3.
1.
1.1.
Introduction
1.2.
1.3.
9
10
14
2.1.
Introduction
14
2.2.
14
2.3.
18
2.4.
20
23
1.
2.
3.
4.
Part III:
1.
2.
Part II:
24
1.1.
Introduction
24
1.2.
24
1.3.
27
1.4.
30
35
2.1.
Introduction
35
2.2.
Recent developments
35
2.3.
37
2.4.
38
41
3.1.
Introduction
41
3.2.
41
3.3.
43
3.4.
44
46
4.1.
Introduction
46
4.2.
46
4.3.
48
4.4.
50
Policy responses
55
1.
2.
56
1.1.
Introduction
56
1.2.
58
1.3.
59
62
vii
3.
4.
2.1.
Introduction
62
2.2.
Banking support
62
2.3.
Macroeconomic policies
64
2.4.
Structural policies
71
78
3.1.
Introduction
78
3.2.
78
3.3.
Crisis prevention
80
82
4.1.
Introduction
82
4.2.
82
4.3.
85
References
87
LIST OF TABLES
II.1.1.
II.1.2.
27
III.1.1.
58
III.2.1.
63
III.2.2.
27
71
LIST OF GRAPHS
I.1.1.
I.1.2.
I.1.3.
I.1.4.
I.1.5.
10
I.1.6.
12
I.1.7.
12
I.2.1.
15
I.2.2.
I.2.3.
World industrial output during the Great Depression and the current crisis
16
I.2.4.
16
I.2.5.
16
I.2.6.
Unemployment rates during the Great Depression and the present crisis in the
II.1.1.
24
II.1.2.
24
US and Europe
viii
9
10
15
18
II.1.3.
27
II.1.4.
29
II.1.5.
30
II.1.6.
30
II.1.7.
31
II.1.8.
II.1.9.
31
31
II.1.10.
32
II.2.1.
35
II.2.2.
36
II.2.3.
37
II.2.4.
38
II.2.5.
40
II.2.6.
40
II.2.7.
40
II.2.8.
II.2.9.
40
II.2.10.
40
II.2.11.
40
II.2.12.
Germany
40
Kingdom
40
II.3.1.
41
II.3.2.
42
II.3.3.
42
II.3.4.
42
II.3.5.
43
II.3.6.
44
II.3.7.
44
II.3.8.
45
II.4.1.
46
II.4.2.
49
II.4.3.
50
II.4.4.
51
II.4.5.
52
III.2.1.
65
III.2.2.
65
III.2.3.
65
III.2.4.
66
III.2.5.
66
III.2.6.
66
III.2.7.
67
III.2.8.
68
III.2.9.
68
III.2.10.
69
I.1.1.
11
I.2.1.
17
II.1.1.
25
II.1.2.
28
LIST OF BOXES
II.1.3.
33
II.1.4.
Financial crisis and potential growth: evidence from simulations with QUEST
34
II.4.1.
49
III.1.1.
57
ix
III.2.1.
70
III.2.2.
73
III.2.3.
76
III.2.4.
77
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
Aware of the risk of financial and economic meltdown central banks and governments in the
European Union embarked on massive and
coordinated policy action. Financial rescue policies
have focused on restoring liquidity and capital of
banks and the provision of guarantees so as to get
the financial system functioning again. Deposit
guarantees were raised. Central banks cut policy
interest rates to unprecedented lows and gave
financial institutions access to lender-of-last-resort
facilities. Governments provided liquidity facilities
to financial institutions in distress as well, along
with state guarantees on their liabilities, soon
followed by capital injections and impaired asset
relief. Based on the coordinated European
Economy recovery Plan (EERP), a discretionary
fiscal stimulus of some 2% of GDP was released
of which two-thirds to be implemented in 2009 and
the remainder in 2010 so as to hold up demand
and ease social hardship. These measures largely
respected agreed principles of being timely and
targeted, although there are concerns that in some
cases measures were not of a temporary nature and
therefore not easily reversed. In addition, the
Stability and Growth Pact was applied in a flexible
and supportive manner, so that in most Member
States the automatic fiscal stabilisers were allowed
to operate unfettered. The dispersion of fiscal
stimulus across Member States has been
substantial, but this is generally and
appropriately in line with differences in terms of
their needs and their fiscal room for manoeuvre. In
addition, to avoid unnecessary and irreversible
destruction of (human and entrepreneurial) capital,
support has been provided to hard-hit but viable
industries while part-time unemployment claims
were allowed on a temporary basis, with the EU
taking the lead in developing guidelines on the
design of labour market policies during the crisis.
The EU has played an important role to provide
guidance as to how state aid policies including to
the financial sector could be shaped so as to pay
respect to competition rules. Moreover, the EU has
provided balance-of payments assistance jointly
with the IMF and World Bank to Member States in
Central and Eastern Europe, as these have been
exposed to reversals of international capital flows.
Executive Summary
Crisis resolution
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
Crisis prevention
Executive Summary
3.
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
Part I
Anatomy of the crisis
4
2
0
-2
Oct-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Apr-09
Feb-09
Sep-08
-4.0
-4.3
CF-EA
EC-EA
Nov-08
CF-UK
EC-UK
May-08
Jan-08
Mar-08
-6
CF-NMS
EC-NMS
Jul-08
-4
Oct-10
Aug-10
Jun-10
Feb-10
Dec-09
EC-EA
Sep-09
CF-EA
EC-UK
Jul-09
CF-UK
EC-NMS
May-09
-6
CF-NMS
Jan-09
-4
Apr-10
-2
Mar-09
Nov-07
Nov-08
INTRODUCTION
1.1.
1.
Part I
Anatomy of the crisis
1.2.
500
Default of Lehman
Brothers
400
300
200
100
0
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
EUR
Jan-03
Jan-04
USD
Jan-05
Jan-06
JPY
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
GBP
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
16
14
house purchases
households
Non-financial corporations
basis points
350
250
150
50
12
10
8
6
4
-50
Corp AA rated
Corp BBB rated
-150
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: European Central Bank.
2
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
10
1.3.
Part I
Anatomy of the crisis
(4)
1760
31538
834
488
35%
407
238
-23.1%
-13.5%
-10%
-30.8%
-22.2%
11
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
12
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
United States
euro area
United Kingdom
Source: OECD
500
300
400
200
300
200
100
100
22.08.08
07.11.07
25.01.07
12.04.06
05.07.05
22.09.04
05.12.03
25.02.03
14.05.02
0
27.07.01
0
12.10.00
03.01.00
Source: www.stoxx.com
Part I
Anatomy of the crisis
13
2.
2.1.
(7) The present crisis has not yet got a commonly accepted
name. The Great Recession has been proposed. It remains
to be seen if this term will catch on.
(8) See for example Smits, Woltjer and Ma (2009).
14
2.2.
Part I
Anatomy of the crisis
2007-2014
120
1907-1913
115
1929-1939
110
100
1907=100
1929=100
2007=100
90
85
80
World War I
30
95
World War II
105
25
20
15
10
11
10
5
0
1865
1885
1905
1925
1945
1965
1985
15
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
Graph I.2.3: World industrial output during the Great Depression and the current crisis
100
90
April 2008=100
80
70
60
1
11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Months into the crisis
Source: League of Nations Monthly Bulletin of Statistics from Eichengreen and O'Rourke (2009) and ECFIN database.
Mar
100
90
90
Apr
Feb
Aug
Jun
80
80
70
70
60
Mar
Sep
Feb
Oct
Jan
Nov
60
Jan
Jul
Dec
Aug
Nov
Sep
Dec
Oct
Notes: Light blue from Jun-1929 to Jul-1932 (minimum Jun-1929); dark blue from Aug-1932.
Source: League of Nations Monthly Bulletin of Statistics from Eichengreen and O'Rourke (2009).
Notes: Light blue from Jun-1929 to Jul-1932 (minimum Jun-1929); dark blue from Aug-1932.
Source: League of Nations Monthly Bulletin of Statistics from Eichengreen and O'Rourke (2009).
16
May
100
Part I
Anatomy of the crisis
Box I.2.1: Capital flows and the crisis of 1929-1933 and 2008-2009
Capital mobility was high and rising during the
classical gold standard prior to 1914. An
international capital market with its centre in
London flourished during this first period of
globalisation. See Graph 1 which presents a
stylized view of the modern history of capital
mobility as full data on capital flows are difficult to
find.
Graph 1: A stylized view of capital mobility, 1860-2000
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
Source: Obstfeld and Taylor (2003, p. 127).
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010*
2012*
2014*
(12) See Francois and Woerz (2009) for a brief analysis of the
present decline in trade.
17
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
40
35
30
25
20
1929-1939*
15
10
USA
USA - forecast
Europe**
Euro area - forecast
2008-2010
5
0
1
10
11
2.3.
18
Part I
Anatomy of the crisis
19
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
20
2.4.
Part I
Anatomy of the crisis
21
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
22
Part II
Economic consequences of the crisis
1.1.
1.2.
INTRODUCTION
65
24
30
60
20
55
10
50
45
-10
40
35
30
US: C&I
US: Mortgages
ECB: Large company loans
ECB: Mortgages
-20
PMI US (lhs)
PMI euro area (lhs)
World trade (rhs)
25
-30
-40
-50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
1.
Part II
Economic consequences of the crisis
GDP
-2
Consumption
Trade balance
-3
-4
Source: Commission
services
1Q
4
2Q
4
3Q
4
4Q
4
5Q
4
6Q
4
7Q
4
8Q
4
9Q
4
10
Q
4
-5
-10
Capital stock
-15
Residential
investment
-20
Source: Commission
services
-25
1Q
4
2Q
4
3Q
4
4Q
4
5Q
4
6Q
4
7Q
4
8Q
4
9Q
4
10
Q
4
25
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
Box (continued)
Graph 3: Inflation
0
-1
-2
GDP deflator
-3
-4
-5
-100
-250
Source:
Commission
services
-300
Graph 6: Spreads
Deposits
Interbank deposits
Stock value banks
Source: Commission
services
250
200
Loan spreads 5yr
150
ib_spread_3m
100
50
Source: Commission
services
1Q
4
2Q
4
3Q
4
4Q
4
5Q
4
6Q
4
7Q
4
8Q
4
9Q
4
10
Q
4
Loans
300
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
-9
1Q
4
2Q
4
3Q
4
4Q
4
5Q
4
6Q
4
7Q
4
8Q
4
9Q
4
10
Q
4
5 years
-200
26
3 months
-150
1Q
4
2Q
4
3Q
4
4Q
4
5Q
4
6Q
4
7Q
4
8Q
4
9Q
4
10
Q
4
-7
-50
1Q
4
2Q
4
3Q
4
4Q
4
5Q
4
6Q
4
7Q
4
8Q
4
9Q
4
10
Q
4
Source: Commission
services
-6
Part II
Economic consequences of the crisis
% year on year
5
3
1
-1
-3
PC
GC
GFCF
STOCKS
NX
GDP
-5
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-0.1
-0.4
-0.4
-2.9
10.9
1.3
1.3.
2009
Belgium
1.2
-3.5
Germany
1.3
-5.4
Ireland
-2.3
-9.0
Greece
2.9
-0.9
Spain
1.2
-3.2
France
0.7
-3.0
Italy
-1.0
-4.4
Cyprus
3.7
0.3
Luxembourg
-0.9
-3.0
Malta
1.6
-0.9
Netherlands
2.1
-3.5
Austria
1.8
-4.0
Portugal
0.0
-3.7
Slovenia
3.5
-3.4
Slovakia
6.4
-2.6
Finland
0.9
-4.7
Euro area
0.8
-4.0
Bulgaria
6.0
-1.6
Czech Republic
0.2
-2.7
Denmark
-1.1
-3.3
Estonia
-3.6
-10.3
Latvia
-4.6
-13.1
Lithuania
3.0
-11.0
Hungary
0.5
-6.3
Poland
4.8
-1.4
Romania
7.1
-4.0
Sweden
-0.2
-4.0
United Kingdom
0.7
-3.8
European Union
0.9
-4.0
United States
1.1
-2.9
Japan
-0.7
-5.3
Source: European Commission Spring Forecast
2010
-0.2
0.3
-2.6
0.1
-1.0
-0.2
0.1
0.7
0.1
0.2
-0.4
-0.1
-0.8
0.7
0.7
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.3
-0.8
-3.2
-4.7
-0.3
0.8
0.0
0.8
0.1
-0.1
0.9
0.1
27
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
Box II.1.2: The growth impact of the current and previous crises
2
1
t=0
t+4
t+8
t+12
-2
-3
20
t-8
t-4
t =0
t+4
t+8
t+12
-4
-5
0
-1 t-12
10
0
t-12
10
0
-10
t-12
t-8
t-4
t=0
t+4
t+8
t-4
t=0
t+4
t+8
t+12
-20
Note: y-o-y grow th rates during tw elve quarters before and after the
beginning (0) of a finanical stress episode. Dotted lines refer to
forecasts. Sources: IMF, OECD, European Commission.
t-8
-10
-30
t-4
4
3
Note: y-o-y grow th rates during tw elve quarters before and after the
beginning (0) of a finanical stress episode. Dotted lines refer to
forecasts. Sources: IMF, OECD, European Commission.
t+12
-20
-30
Note: y-o-y grow th rates during tw elve quarters before and after the
beginning (0) of a finanical stress episode. Dotted lines refer to
forecasts. Sources: IMF, OECD, European Commission.
28
t-8
Note: y -o-y grow th rates during tw elve quarters before and after the
beginning (0) of a financial stress episode. Dotted lines refer to
forecasts. Sources: IMF, OECD, European Commission.
Graph 1: GDP
% year on year growth
The four graphs below compare the quarterly yearon-year growth rates of GDP, consumption and
investment for the euro area, the United Kingdom
and the United States to their median values for
113 historical episodes of financial stress between
1980 and 2008, as compiled by IMF (2008b). The
graphs cover a period of twelve quarters before and
twelve quarters after the beginning of a financial
stress episode, with "t = 0" denoting the beginning
of each crisis. The current crisis is assumed to start
in the third quarter of 2007 for the euro area and
the fourth quarter of 2007 for the United Kingdom
and the United States.
Part II
Economic consequences of the crisis
14
IE
ES
12
EE
LV
LU
LT
PT
10
CY
Sl
CZ
8
6
R = 0.176
EL
HU
EA
SK
PL
BG
IT
FR
-80
-40
FI
DK
BE
DE
UK
4
-120
AT
40
SE
NL
80
29
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
-4
2000
2001
GC
2002
GFCF
2003
2004
STOCKS
2005
2006
NX
2007
GDP
2008
Note: w eighted average of EU countries w hose cumulative current account position over the period 1999-2008 exceeded that of the euro
area. Source: European Commission
6
4
2
0
-2
PC
GC
GFCF
STOCKS
NX
GDP
-4
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Note: w eighted average of EU countries w hose cumulative current account position over the period 1999-2008 w as below that
of the euro area. Source: European Commission
1.4.
30
Part II
Economic consequences of the crisis
Capital
Total
-1
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
3
2
Labour
Capital
TFP
Total
1
0
-1
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
4
3
Labour
Capital
TFP
Total
2
1
0
-1
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
31
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
BG
SK
2009-2013 (%)
LU
RO
PL
CZ
CY
SI
LT
EL
AT
DE
IT
PT
DK BE
FR
NL
EE
ES
UK
FI
MT
IE
SE
LV
HU
0
0
32
1999-2008 (%)
Part II
Economic consequences of the crisis
Table 1:
Crisis and potential growth regression results
(1)
(2)
(3)
Dependent variable: Potential growth
Coeff.
(t-stat)
Coeff.
(t-stat)
Coeff.
(t-stat)
er ca ita
Potential growth per capita
Lag 1
0.46***
(4.71)
0.46***
(4.78)
0.36***
(3.58)
Lag 2
0.15**
(2.09)
0.16**
(2.29)
0.15**
(2.09)
Lag 3
0.15**
(2.58)
0.16***
(2.69)
0.17***
(2.82)
Lag 4
-0.09*
(-1.87)
-0.09*
(-1.81)
0.01
(0.05)
Beginning of crisis (dummy)
-0.41**
(-2.07)
Lag 1
-0.71***
(-4.07)
Lag 2
-0.63***
(-3.72)
Lag 3
0.08
(0.27)
Lag 4
-0.18
(-0.66)
Average year of crisis (dummy)
-0.48***
(-4.42)
-0.27***
(-2.16)
First post-crisis year (dummy)
-0.03
(-0.10)
0.03
(0.11)
Second post-crisis year (dummy)
0.64
(1.31)
0.64
(1.48)
Log per capita GDP (lagged)
-0.91***
(-3.36)
Population growth (lagged)
-0.57***
(-4.22)
Gross capital formation
0.04**
(2.31)
Openness (lagged)
0.01***
(3.78)
Quality of regulation
0.26***
(4.46)
Sample size/ R
793
0.81
793
0.82
617
0.83
Notes : OLS, t-statistics based on robust standard errors. Time fixed effects and constant terms included. Banking crisis dummies equals 1 if the
country was in banking crisis according to the extended Laeven and Valencia (2008) database; the severe banking crisis dummy applies if the
fall in credit-to-GDP three years after a crisis year exceeded the average fall according to the Laaven and Valencia (2008) criterion. Other
sources : Potential growth: AMECO, OECD; Population growth (%) (WDI). Openness: Sum of imports and exports on GDP (%) Penn World
Tables; Quality of regulation: Fraser Institute.
33
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
Box II.1.4: Financial crisis and potential growth: evidence from simulations with QUEST
-3
-4
Contribution
GDP
-3
Potential
-4
-5
Source: European
Commission
Contribution
Contribution
GDP
Potential
-4
-5
-2
Contribution
-2
-1
-5
34
Source: European
Commission
Contribution
Contribution
GDP
Potential
Source: European
Commission
2.
2.1.
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
INTRODUCTION
25
20
2008
15
2009 July
2010 forecast
10
0
ES LV LT IE EE PL SK EA HU EU FR DE SE BE US PT EL IT UK FI BG RO MT CZ SI AT LU DK JP NL CY
Source: Commi ssion services.
35
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
2009Q1
2008
2007
LU
EA
NL
MT
BE
FR
UK
GR
IT
CZ
PL
AT
SE
DK
EU27
DE
RO
FI
CY
BG
HU
LV
SK
SI
ES
IE
LT
-8
PT
-6
EE
% change year-on-year
2000-2006
36
Part II
Economic consequences of the crisis
100
-18.6
-15.1
80
-3.2
-8.4
-11.6
60
40
6
0.8
-6.0
-6.3
-4.3
20
-6.0
-3.4
-2.4
-4.8
-8.9
-4.9
1.7
-3.5
-3.4
-5.4
-6.2
-3.5
-3.1-5.6
-4.5
-6.7
LT
DE
NL
BE
SK
FR
AT
RO
PL
LU
EA
SI
BG
MT
EU27
CZ
LV
FI
EE
SE
DK
HU
UK
GR
IT
PT
CY
IE
ES
-20
2.3.
37
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
20
15
Unemployment rate
10
%
5
0
-5
-10
CY
BE
FR
CZ
BG
AT
DK
NL
SK
HU
FI
IT
SE
DE
IE
EE
LT
38
2.4.
Part II
Economic consequences of the crisis
39
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
(p.p change)
2
1
-1
-2
Months
-6
2007m10
12
2002m07
18
24
2000m10
30
Months
-1
-6
1991m10
18
24
30
1992m04
100
(p.p change)
80
60
12
(p.p change)
80
6
2007m10
100
60
40
40
20
20
Months
-20
-20
-40
-6
2007m10
12
2002m07
18
24
2000m10
30
Months
-40
-6
1991m10
12
18
2007m10
30
24
1992m04
2
2
1
1
0
0
Months
-1
-6
12
2007m10
2002m04
18
24
1995m04
30
1990m10
Months
-1
-6
100
18
24
30
1990m01
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
-20
-20
Months
-40
-6
6
2007m10
40
12
(p.p change)
80
6
2007m10
12
2002m04
18
1995m04
24
30
1990m10
Months
-40
-6
6
2007m10
12
18
24
1990m01
30
3.
3.1.
INTRODUCTION
TRACKING
DEFICITS
DEVELOPMENTS
IN
FISCAL
Graph II.3.1: Tracking the fiscal position against previous banking crises
4.0
EU-27 (1), (2)
EU-15 (1),(3)
2.0
% of GDP
0.0
Notes:
(1) Based on 49 crises episodes as presented in European
Commission (2009c). Unweighted country averages. t = start of the
crisis.
(2) Includes crisis episodes in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia,
Finland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovak,
Republic, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden. For new Member States
data from 1991.
(3) Includes crisis episodes in Finland, Spain and Sweden.
(4) Includes crisis episodes in Finland, Norway, Sweden, Japan and
Spain.
(5) Includes crisis episodes in Argentina (2001), Indonesia, Korea,
Malaysia, Mexico (1994), Philippines, Thailand and Turkey (2000).
(6) All EU27 countries, t = 2008
Sources: Calculations based on IMF International Financial
Statistics and AMECO.
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
t-4
t-3
t-2
t-1
41
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
10
5
% of GDP
0
-5
-3% Maastricht criteria
-10
2007
-15
2008
2009
2010
Series5
BG
CY
FI
LU
ML
EE
SE
DK
IT
HU
CZ
SK
RO
EL
AT
DE
BE
NL
SL
PT
EA
FR
EU
LT
PO
ES
UK
LV
IE
-20
Source: European Commission
4
CZ
BG
MT
EL
IT
FR SK HU
AT
DE NL
EAPO
BESE
SL
EU
DK FI
-4
-8
UK
-12
R = 0.146
LV
ES
IE
-16
4
6
8
10
12
Employment in construction 2007 (% of total)
14
0
IT
-4
FR
EA
NL
DE
-8
DK
FI
SE
UK
R = 0.124
-12
ES
IE
-16
50
42
100
150
200
Part II
Economic consequences of the crisis
3.3.
Graph II.3.5: Tracking general government debt against previous banking crises
90
80
70
% of GDP
60
Notes:
(1 ) Based on 49 crises episodes as presented in European
Commission (2009c). Unweighted country averages. t = start of the
crisis.
(2) Includes crisis episodes in Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary,
Latvia, Poland, Slovak Republic, Spain and Sweden. For new
Member States data from 1991.
(3) Includes crisis episodes in Finland, Spain and Sweden.
(4) Includes crisis episodes in Finland, Norway, Sweden, Japan
and Spain.
(5) In principle includes Argentina (2001), Indonesia, Malaysia,
Mexico (1994), Turkey (2000), Philippines and Thailand. But data
for the last three are missing.
(6) Excludes Nicaragua which in 2003 (t+4) received a public debt
relief.
(7) All EU27 countries, t = 2008
Sources: Calculations based on IMF International Financial
Statistics and AMECO.
50
40
30
20
10
0
t-4
t-3
t-2
t-1
43
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
140
120
2007
% of GDP
100
2008
2009
2010
80
60
40
20
0
EE LU BG RO LT DK SL SK CZ FI SE CY LV PO ES NL ML AT DE EU IE PT UK HU EA FR BE EL IT
Source: European Commission
3.4.
Gross debt
Tax shortfalls
Non-discretionary expenses
40
Current account
Contingent liabilities
Total
20
0
-20
-40
NL
EE
SK
CZ
RO
LT
LV
PL
SE
DE
DK
BG
SI
LU
FI
AT
FR
UK
HU
MT
BE
IE
ES
IT
CY
PT
EL
-60
Note: Conting ent liabilities represent the potential level of problematic banking assets to the extent these are likely to affect public
finances; tax shortfalls are estimated assuming that corporate and property tax proceeds return to their pre-bubble ratio to GDP;
non-discretionary expenses are the sum of interest payments on debt and social benefit payments as a per cent of GDP. All five
indicators are normalised around their 1999 EU averages. For details, see European Commission (2009c).
Source: European Commission
44
Part II
Economic consequences of the crisis
300
EL
250
200
IE
150
IT
PT BE
ES
100
R2 = 0.50
AT
SK
FI
FR
50
0
NL
DE
SE
-50
-60
-10
40
45
4.
4.1.
INTRODUCTION
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
China
United States
Japan
Euro area
46
United Kingdom
Fuel exporters
Part II
Economic consequences of the crisis
47
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
4.3.
48
Part II
Economic consequences of the crisis
1.5
140
1.0
120
100
0.5
80
0.0
60
-0.5
40
Jan-09
0
Jul-08
20
-1.5
Oct-08
-1.0
Apr-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
May-08
Oct-07
Sep-07
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-06
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-05
Jan-05
May-05
-60
Apr-07
-40
Jan-07
0
-20
Jul-06
20
Oct-06
40
Apr-06
Jan-06
49
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
other
EA
CH
JP
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2000
-100
2003
2002
4.4.
2001
Middle East
Source: BEA, billion of US$. Among the "other" regions, Africa, Mexico and
emerging Asian economies figure most prominently.
50
Part II
Economic consequences of the crisis
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
Brazil
China
Japan
-200
Russia
US
RoW
UK
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
-250
1996
1995
Source: Eurostat
51
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
20
Graph II.4.5: China's GDP growth rate and current account to GDP ratio
15
10
5
0
-5
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook
GDP growth
52
Current account
Part II
Economic consequences of the crisis
53
Part III
Policy responses
1.
1.1.
56
Part III
Policy responses
57
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
Table III.1.1:
Crisis policy frameworks: a conceptional illustration
Crisis prevention
Crisis resolution
EU coordination frameworks
Financial policy
Regulation, supervision
(micro- and macroprudentional)
EU supervisory committees,
Single Market, Competition
policy, joint representation in
international fora (G20)
Monetary policy
Conventional and
unconventional expansions
Fiscal policy
Structural policy
EU coordinated tools
1.2.
58
Part III
Policy responses
Actual policy making in the European Union postSeptember 2008 largely followed this logic, but
shortcomings have been exposed. Specifically, the
exits from supportive policy stances have yet to be
designed and committed to. Serious shortcomings
have been revealed in the prevention and control of
financial crises, and these need to be addressed as
well. Moreover, in the light of the large spillover
effects of national policy actions in a context of
integrated financial and product markets, it is
essential that the EU coordination framework be
consolidated and developed further, in particular
within the euro area. Monetary policy in the euro
area is centralised, and this should facilitate the
cooperation between the monetary authorities in
the EU and globally. And fiscal policies in the EU
are coordinated in the framework of the Stability
and Growth Pact (SGP). Indeed, had the SGP not
existed it would have to be reinvented for the
purpose of managing financial crises. A soft
59
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
60
Part III
Policy responses
61
2.
2.1.
2.2.
BANKING SUPPORT
62
Part III
Policy responses
Table III.2.1:
Public interventions in the banking sector
% of GDP
Ireland
Belgium
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Sweden
Latvia
Austria
Germany
Spain
France
Portugal
Greece
Denmark
Hungary
Slovenia
Slovakia
Romania
Poland
Malta
Lithuania
Italy
Finland
Estonia
Czech Republic
Cyprus
Bulgaria
European Union
Euro area
Guarantees on bank
Relief of impaired
Liquidity and bank
Capital injections
liabilities
assets
funding support
Total
Approved Effective Approved Granted Approved Effective Approved Effective Approved Effective
5.1
2.1
225.2
225.2
230.3
227.3
4.2
5.7
70.8
16.3
5.7
5.0
NA
NR
74.6
35.3
3.5
2.6
21.7
9.5
25.1
18.7
50.3
30.8
7.9
7.9
34.3
5.7
4.9
5.8
42.2
24.3
6.9
7.9
12.4
NR
19.3
18.5
1.6
0.2
48.5
8.8
0.1
50.2
9.0
1.4
10.9
2.8
10.9
6.1
23.2
8.9
5.0
1.7
27.3
5.1
0.4
0.4
27.3
1.5
60.0
8.7
4.2
1.6
18.6
7.3
3.6
0.4
NR
26.4
6.3
9.3
2.8
2.8
1.8
12.1
4.6
1.2
0.8
16.6
3.1
2.3
0.3
20.1
4.2
2.4
12.5
3.0
14.9
3.0
2.0
6.1
0.4
3.3
1.7
11.4
2.1
6.1
0.3
253.0
NR
NA
NR
243.8
0.5
1.1
0.1
5.9
7.0
0.1
32.8
32.8
1.3
NA
1.3
27.7
27.7
2.6
0.5
24.7
7.8
12.0
0.5
4.3
3.0
43.6
11.8
2.6
1.4
20.6
8.3
12.0
0.7
1.3
0.7
36.5
11.1
Note: Countries ranked by total effective support, NR = not reported by the Member State, NA = not available. Source: European Commission.
63
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
64
MACROECONOMIC POLICIES
Part III
Policy responses
Fiscal/Monetary
tightening
2007
2006
Fiscal tightening/
1.0 Monetary easing
2005
2004
-0.5
2003
2002
2008
-2.0
-3.5
Fiscal
easing/
Monetary
tightening
2009
Fiscal/Monetary
-5.0 easing
-4
-3
-2
-1
-1.5
Fiscal/Monetary
2007
tightening
2005
2002
-3.0
2008
Fiscal
easing/
Monetary
tightening
-4.5
Fiscal/Monetary
-6.0
easing
-7.5
-4
-3
2004
2009
-2
-1
1.0
2005
Fiscal/Monetary
tightening
2006
2004
-0.5
-2.0
-3.5
-5.0
2007
200
3
Fiscal
easing/
Monetary
tightening
2008
Fiscal/Monetary easing
-4
-3
-2
2002
2009
-1
65
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
5
4
3
2
1
0
Jan-08 Apr-08
Jul-08
6
5
25
% of GDP
25
Fed
BoE
ECB
20
20
15
15
10
10
1
0
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
66
3/07/09
3/09/08
3/11/08
3/01/09
3/03/09
3/05/09
3/07/08
3/11/07
3/01/08
3/03/08
3/05/08
3/09/07
3/05/07
3/07/07
3/01/07
3/03/07
Part III
Policy responses
% of GDP
2.5
2.0
Fiscal impulse
Impact lower extreme: if stimulus is permanent
Impact upper extreme: if stimulus is temporary and accommodated
Impact if stimulus is temporary
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
BG DK HU LT LV MA SK CY EE EL
IT
NL
IE
BE FR PT
FI PO CZ EA EU SL LU SE DE UK AT ES US
67
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
% of GDP
3.0
2.5
Fiscal impulse
Impact lower extreme: if stimulus is permanent
Impact upper extreme: if stimulus is temporary and accommodated
Impact if stimulus is temporary
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
BG CY DK EL HU LT LV MA SK UK PT FR NL
IT
FI
EE BE CZ
IE
SL EU SE ES EA LU AT PO DE US
68
US
ES
2
AT
1.5
SE
LU
EU SL
EA
PT
FR
FI
BE PO
1
0.5
IE
EE
0
-9
-8
UK
DE
NL EL
IT
LT
DK
CZ
BG
HU
MA
SK
CY
LV
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
Output gap, %
Source: European Commission.
Part III
Policy responses
ES
2
AT
DE
UK
LU
SL
PT
FR FI
SE
CZ
PO
BE
0.5
EL
IE
IT
CY
0
-80
-60
-40
2.5
1.5
NL
MA
-20
SK
BG
HU DK
LV
LT
EE
20
40
69
European Commission
Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
Box III.2.1: Measuring the economic impact of fiscal stimulus under the EERP
Table 1 reports the fiscal multipliers for the first
year for different fiscal measures computed with
the Commission's QUEST model (Roeger and in 't
Veld 2009). The macroeconomic impact of fiscal
stimulus depends crucially on whether the shock is
credibly temporary or perceived to be permanent.
In the latter case, economic agents will anticipate
higher taxes and raise their savings. In general,
GDP effects are larger for public spending shocks
(government consumption and investment) than for
tax reductions and transfers to households. If
monetary policy is assumed to be more
accommodative towards the fiscal stimulus, first
year GDP effects are considerably larger as they
are accompanied by lower real interest rates.
Spending shocks and investment subsidies display
the largest multipliers. Increasing investment
subsidies yields sizeable effects especially if it is
temporary since it leads to a reallocation of
investment spending into the period the purchase of
new equipment and structures is subsidised.
Government investment yields a somewhat larger
GDP multiplier than purchases of goods and
services. However, it is mainly the long run GDP
multiplier (not shown) which shows a significant
difference because of the productivity enhancing
effects of government investment. An increase in
government transfers has a smaller multiplier, as it
goes along with negative labour supply incentives.
Temporary reductions in value added and labour
taxes show smaller multipliers. Tighter credit
constraints tend to increase the multiplier of these
measures. A temporary reduction in consumption
taxes is more effective than a reduction in labour
taxes as also forward looking households respond
to this change in the inter-temporal terms of trade.
Table 1:
First year GDP effects of fiscal shocks of 1% of GDP
Fiscal measures:
Temporary stimulus
(one year)
Investment subsidy
0.46
1.37
Government investment
0.84
1.07
1.40
Government consumption
0.36
0.99
1.40
Consumption tax
0.37
0.67
0.99
Government transfers
0.22
0.55
0.78
Labour tax
0.48
0.53
0.68
0.32
0.03
0.05
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Policy responses
Table III.2.2:
Labour market and social protection measures in Member States' recovery programmes
Member States
Improving job placement and investing in re-training
Reinforcing activation
Supporting household purchasing power
Supporting employment by cutting labour costs
Encouraging flexible working-time
Mitigating the impact of financial crisis on individuals
AT, BE, BG, CZ, DK, DE, EL, ES, FI, FR,
HU,IE, IT, MT, NL, PT, RO, SE, SI, SK, UK
AT, BE, BG, CZ, DK, DE, EL, ES, FI, FR, IE,
IT, LT, LU, MT, PL, SE, SI, SK
AT, BE, BG, DK, DE, ES, FI, FR, IT, LU, LV,
MT, PL, PT, RO, SE, SK, UK
AT, BE, BG, DK, DE, ES, FR, HU, LT, LU, LV,
NL, PT, RO, SE, SI, SK
AT, BE, BG, CY, CZ, DK, DE, FR, HU, IT, LT,
LU, NL, PT, SI, SK
AT, BG, CZ, EE, ES, FI, FR, HU, IE, IT, LT, LU,
PT
Number of
Member
States
Number of
measures
Consistency with
principles/criteria
hi
medium
low
21
64
33
33
19
34
31
18
48
42
17
35
11
26
16
20
15
13
27
25
BE, BG, EL, FI, FR, IE, IT, LV, PT, RO, SE, UK
12
21
17
Others
AT, BE, CZ, DK, EE, FI, FR, LT, LV, RO, SE
11
12
10
10
Note: Information inlcuded up to 31 March 2009. A single measure can be classified under several headings and thus the totals do not sum up. Each measure is
assessed relative to the agreed principles using criteria such as timeliness, the degree of targeting, the consistency of short-term support measures with long-term policy
such as those in the Lisbon strategy, and the possible need for coordination in light of cross-border spillovers. An attempt has been made to assess the consistency of
measures relative to the principles/criteria. A 'high' degree of consistency is considered to occur when the measures are considered to be ambitious and comprehensive
enough. A 'medium' degree of consistency is considered to occur when measures go in the right direction but are relatively limited in scope. A 'low' degree of consistency
is considered to occur when measures potentially go in the wrong direction.
Source: European Commission
2.4.
STRUCTURAL POLICIES
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Box III.2.3: Labour market and social protection crisis measures: examples of good
practice
Labour market and social protection measures in
Member States' recovery programmes can be
ranked according to criteria such as timeliness,
degree of targeting, temporariness and consistency
with the Lisbon goals. The following three cases
are examples of measures with particularly high
scores on these criteria.
The United Kingdom developed a comprehensive
strategy on employment, notably through the "New
Opportunities White Paper". The employment
package includes: increased training opportunities
for the unemployed; strengthened pre-redundancy
support; further support for those who are still
unemployed after six months, there including and
expanded range of work and training options. The
Jobseeker's Allowance has been reformed with the
introduction of a personalised, contracted Personal
New Deal to provide the right support for skills
and back-to-work activity, through a staged
programme of support for all Jobseeker's
Allowance customers. A National Employment
Partnership has been also set up to examine what
more employers can do to tackle unemployment,
supported by a substantial expansion of JobCentre
Plus Local and of JobCentre Plus Rapid Response
Centre for employers.
Germany extended the period of receipt of shorttime allowance from 12 to 18 months limited to
2009; simplified the application and procedure for
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3.
3.1.
3.2.
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3.3.
CRISIS PREVENTION
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4.
4.1.
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4.3.
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Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
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European Economy - 7/2009 Economic Crisis in Europe: Causes, Consequences and Responses
Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities
2008 x, 90 pp. 21 x 29.7 cm
ISBN 978-92-79-11368-0
doi 10.2765/84540
KC-AR-09-007-EN-C
In this special report, published on 14 September 2009, the Commission takes stock
of Europes deepest recession since the 1930s. The report examines the anatomy of the
crisis and concludes that the EUs response was swift and decisive. But decision-makers are
now grappling with how best to design exit strategies from temporary support measures,
and the focus of the policy debate is shifting from crisis control to longer-term measures
supporting a return to growth. Key challenges will be balancing financial stability and
competition, and restoring fiscal probity without compromising recovery. The EU will have
an important coordinating role in ensuring an orderly crisis resolution.