Professional Documents
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Chapter 9:
NPV
Siqi Wei
Overview
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
FIN3113-009
Chapter 9
Net Present Value (NPV) and Other
Investment Criteria
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
Siqi Wei
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Department of Finance
Spears School of Business
Oklahoma State University
Spring 2016
Overview
FIN3113
Chapter 9:
NPV
Siqi Wei
Overview
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
4
5
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
6
7
Overview
Outline
Capital Budgeting
Payback & Discounted Payback Rule
Payback Rule
Dicounted Payback
Net Present Value
Internal Rate of Return
IRR
Nonconventional Cash Flows
Multiple IRRs
Mutually Exclusive Investments and Crossover Rate
Modified IRR
Profitability Index
Excercises
Overview
FIN3113
Chapter 9:
NPV
Siqi Wei
Overview
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Objectives
FIN3113
Chapter 9:
NPV
Siqi Wei
Overview
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Tools
FIN3113
Chapter 9:
NPV
Siqi Wei
Overview
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
Investment Criteria
Payback Rule
Discounted Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Profitability Index
Payback Rule
FIN3113
Chapter 9:
NPV
Siqi Wei
Overview
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Overview
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Drawbacks?
Siqi Wei
Overview
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Discounted Payback
How long does it take to get the initial cost back after you
bring all of the cash flows to the present value.
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Dicounted Payback-interpretation
FIN3113
Chapter 9:
NPV
Siqi Wei
Overview
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Overview
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
NPV
The difference between the market value of a project (or
investment) and its cost.
NPV=PV of future cash inflows initial outlays
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
CF1
CF2
CFn
+
+ ... +
NPV =
CF0
(1 + r )1
(1 + r )2
(1 + r )n
n
X
CFt
CF0
=
(1 + r)t
t=1
NPV
FIN3113
Chapter 9:
NPV
Siqi Wei
Overview
Steps
Estimate the future cash flows
Estimate the required return for projects of this risk level.
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Find the present value of the cash flows and subtract the
initial investment.
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Estimate NPV
FIN3113
Chapter 9:
NPV
Siqi Wei
Overview
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Estimate NPV
FIN3113
Chapter 9:
NPV
Siqi Wei
Overview
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
NPV Example
Imagine we are thinking of starting a business to produce and
sell a new product, an organic fertilizer. suppose we believe the
cash revenues from our fertilizer business will be $20,000 per
year. Cash costs (including taxes) will be $14,000 per year.
We will wind down the business in 8 years. The plant,
property, and equipment will be worth $2,000 as salvage at
that time. The project costs $30,000 to launch. We use a
15% discount rate. Is this a good investment? If there are
1,000 shares of stock outstanding, what will be the effect on
the price per share of taking this investment?
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Siqi Wei
Overview
Outline
if the cash flows are in the form of annuity, use the annuity
formula, or just input [PMT],[I/Y],[N],[FV] and solve for [PV]1 ,
or use CF and adjust CF frequency
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
if the cash flows are in the form of growing annuity, use the
growing annuity formula
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Keep in mind
Always identify Cash Flow Patterns first
1
Be careful, this PV is not your NPV, its just the PV of future CFs; To
calculate the NPV, you need to take the difference between the PV of
future CF and CF0
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
CFt
CFt
CFt
$0 =
+
+ ... +
CF0
(1 + IRR)t
(1 + IRR)t
(1 + IRR)t
n
X
CFt
=
CF0
(1 + IRR)t
t=1
CF0 =
n
X
t=1
CFt
(1 + IRR)t
IRR
FIN3113
Chapter 9:
NPV
Siqi Wei
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
IRR
FIN3113
Chapter 9:
NPV
Siqi Wei
Overview
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
IRR
Suppose we have a sequence of cash flows in the form of a
two-period, $60 annuity. At 10% of discount rate, what is
NPV? What is IRR that makes NPV=0?
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
NPV:
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
60
60
+
IRR =?
(1 + IRR)1 (1 + IRR)2
Now, allowing for different levels of discount rates (0%, 5%, 10%,
15%, 20%), what would happen to the NPVs?
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Question: Are the IRR and NPV rules always lead to identical
decisions?
The answer is yes, as long as two very important
conditions are met.
First, the projects cash flows must be conventional,
meaning that the first cash flow (the initial investment)
is negative and all the rest are positive.
Second, the project must be independent, meaning that
the decision to accept or reject this project does not affect
the decision to accept or reject any other
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Multiple IRRs
More than one IRR
resulting from a
capital budgeting
project with a
nonconventional
cash flow pattern;
the maximum
number of IRRs
for a project is
equal to the
number of sign
changes in its
cash flows.
Overview
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
*To illustrate the problem with the IRR rule and mutually exclusive
investments, consider the following cash flows from two mutually
exclusive investments:
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
IRRA = 24% > IRRB = 21%, Can we make decision based on this?
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Overview
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
*The IRR is the interest rate that makes the NPV of the project
equal to zero
**To find the crossover rate, we subtract the cash flows from one
project from the cash flows of the other project, and find the IRR of
the differential cash flows.
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Siqi Wei
Overview
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
T0 : $60 +
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
T1 : 0
T2 : $155 (1 + 20%)1 = $186
then solve for the IRR of these new cash flows
MIRR=19.87% 2
Profitability
Index
Excercises
$100
= $129.44, Discount back CF
(1 + 20%)2
There are many ways of calculating MIRR; in this course, you only
need to know the combination approach, the Method # 3 on your book
Capital
Budgeting
MIRR Excercise
Calculate the MIRR. The opportunity cost is 7%
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
MIRR excercise
FIN3113
Chapter 9:
NPV
Siqi Wei
Overview
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
PI =
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Decision rule
Accept if PI > 1.0
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Example: PI
If a project costs $200 and the present value of its future cash
flows is $220, the profitability index value would be
$220/200 = 1.1. This tells us that, per dollar invested, $1.10
in value or $.10 in NPV results, that is, the value created
per dollar invested.
PI normaly can be used as a measure of performance for
government or other not-for-profit investments. Also,
when capital is scarce, it may make sense to allocate it to
projects with the highest PIs.
PI is closely related to NPV, generally leading to identical
decisions.
PI may lead to incorrect decisions in comparisons of
mutually exclusive investments.
Excercises: Q1
FIN3113
Chapter 9:
NPV
Siqi Wei
Overview
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Excercise: Q2
FIN3113
Chapter 9:
NPV
Siqi Wei
Overview
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Q2
Below are the cash flow forecasts for two mutually exclusive
projects
Which project would you choose if the opportunity cost is
2%?
Which project would you choose if the opportunity cost is
12%?
Why does your answer change?
What is the crossover rate?
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Excercise: Q3
FIN3113
Chapter 9:
NPV
Siqi Wei
Overview
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Q3
Batesville Casket Company is evaluating the opening of a new
casket and vault production operation. The project will provide
a net cash inflow of $90,000 next year. Demand is very steady,
therefore cash flows are projected to grow at a rate of 4% each
year forever. The project requires an initial cash outflow of
$1,500,000. The firm has an opportunity cost of 11%. Should
BCC begin construction of the new factory? The firm has
experienced difficulty estimating the growth rate, therefore
what is the break-even growth rate that would provide a NPV
of -0-?
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Excercises: Q4
FIN3113
Chapter 9:
NPV
Siqi Wei
Overview
Outline
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
Q4
XYZ Company is evaluating the following project. Calculate
the MIRR using the Combination Approach (Discount negative
cash flows using the discount rate and compound positive cash
flows at the reinvestment rate, then calculate the I/Y with the
new initial cash outflow and future cash inflow). The
opportunity cost is 7%.
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises
Capital
Budgeting
Payback
Payback Rule
Disc. Payback
NPV
IRR
IRR
Nonconventional
CF
Multiple IRRs
Mutually
Exclusive
MIRR
Profitability
Index
Excercises