Managing Security Tensions in

the South China Sea

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Presentation to Session 3, Indo-Pacific Maritime Security
Conference: Challenges & Cooperation
The National Security College and Embassy of Japan
The Australian National University
Canberra, 16-17 March 2016

Outline
1. Some Problems with Definitions
2. Options for Managing Tensions in
the South China Sea
3. Tensions in the South China Sea
and Confidence Building Measures

1. Some Problems with Definitions

Land Reclamation is not taking place
Construction of artificial islands

Freedom of Navigation
China has not declared baselines or promulgated
maritime zones

Militarization
Undefined by the United States and China
Militarization is a spectrum of activities

Militarization
To give a military
character to

To make preparations
for war
Dual civilmilitary

Red Line?

2. Options for Managing Tensions in

the South China Sea
China-U.S. Action-Reaction Cycle
Freedom of Navigation Patrols and Chinas
Response/bilateral dialogues necessary

Post-Arbitral Tribunal Decision

Win, Lose, or Draw support for international law
International community united front

Reinforcing ASEAN centrality

Coordination of Multilateral Diplomacy

ASEAN Centred Mechanisms

Comparison of Joint Statements from:

18th ASEAN-China Summit
3rd ASEAN-U.S. Summit
10th East Asia Summit
ASEAN-U.S. Special Summit Sunnylands
ASEAN Ministerial Meeting Retreat

ASEAN, China, U.S. All Agree On

Peace, security and stability of region

Freedom of navigation and over flight
Implementation of DOC/Conclusion of COC
Self-restraint
Non threat or use of force
Peaceful resolution of disputes
International law including UNCLOS

ASEAN-U.S. Sunnylands Summit

Areas of bilateral agreement

Maritime security and safety

Full respect for legal and diplomatic processes
Other lawful uses of the sea
Unimpeded lawful maritime commerce
Non-militarization
Address common challenges in the mariitme
domain
*included in AMM Retreat Statement

ASEAN Ministerial Meeting Retreat

Vientiane (27 Feb 2016)
Expeditious establishment of COC and
substantive development of the COC
Ministers remained seriously concerned* over
recent and ongoing developments and took note
of the concerns expressed by some Ministers on
the land reclamations and escalation of activities
in the area, which have eroded trust and
confidence, increased tensions and may
undermine peace, security and stability in the
region
*also expressed by 10th EAS Statement

3. Tensions in the South China Sea and

Confidence Building Measures
2. The Parties are committed to exploring
ways for building trust and confidence in
accordance with [UN Charter, UNCLOS,
ASEAN TAC, Five Principles of Peaceful
Coexistence, and other universally recognized
principles of international law] and on the
basis of equality and mutual respect
Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South
China Sea (November 2002

Operationalizing Self-Restraint
5. The Parties undertake to exercise selfrestraint in the conduct of activities that
would complicate or escalate disputes and
affect peace and stability including, among
others, refraining from action of inhabiting on
the presently uninhabited islands, reefs,
shoals, cays, and other features and to handle
their differences in a constructive manner.
DOC (2002)

To Build Trust and Confidence

a. holding dialogues and exchange of views as
appropriate between their defense and military
officials;
b. ensuring just and humane treatment of all
persons who are either in danger or in distress;
c. notifying, on a voluntary basis, other Parties
concerned of any impending joint/combined
military exercise; and
d. exchanging, on a voluntary basis, relevant
information.

Cooperative Activities
a. marine environmental protection;
b. marine scientific research;
c. safety of navigation and communication at
sea;
d. search and rescue operation; and
e. combating transnational crime, including
but not limited to trafficking in illicit drugs,
piracy and armed robbery at sea, and illegal
traffic in arms.

Conclusion
Support for ASEAN Centrality
Define militarization
Transparency by all claimants

Management of U.S. and China military-tomilitary encounters/FONOP essential

Mobilize international community to support
Arbitral Tribunal decisions
Preserve status quo (dont cross red line)

Managing Security Tensions in

the South China Sea
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Presentation to Session 3, Indo-Pacific Maritime Security
Conference: Challenges & Cooperation
The National Security College and Embassy of Japan
The Australian National University
Canberra, 16-17 March 2016