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Appendix B Chapter 8

Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition


Problems
NOTE: Many of the AON graphics in this solutions set depict the start day of the
successor activity to be the same day as the completion of the predecessor. This is
consistent with the presentation in the text. It is not consistent with the result that would
be obtained using Microsoft Project, where the start day of the successor is always the
next working day after the completion of the predecessor.
Problem 2:

Problem 4:
a)

The critical path is B-E-G.

b)

23 work periods.
Problem 6:
PDM Diagram 6a

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Appendix B Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition

PDM Diagram 6b
Problem 8:

Please see note about network depiction preceding Problem 1


a)

The critical path activities are A, C, E, and G.

b)

The projects duration is 22 days.

c)

Yes, activity B can be delayed one day without delaying the completion of
the project.

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Appendix B Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
Problem 10:

a) The critical path is AC CB BE EF.


b) The only event with slack is D at 3 days.
c) If D were the final event in the network, then the critical path would be AC CB
BD.
d) The following spreadsheet excerpt illustrates the calculation of the probability of
completion in 14 days:
Task

Expected

Variance

Std Dev.

AB

6.0

1.00

1.00

AC

4.0

1.00

1.00

CB

3.0

1.00

1.00

CD

3.0

0.00

0.00

CE

3.0

1.00

1.00

BD

1.0

1.00

1.00

BE

5.0

1.00

1.00

DF

10

5.0

1.00

1.00

DE

1.0

0.00

0.00

EF

4.0

1.00

1.00

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Appendix B Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
Sum of
Expected Variances
Desired Project
Critical
Duration Duration
Path
14

16.0

4.00

Probability

-1

15.9%

e) If CD slips to six days the critical path is unchanged but slack on D is reduced. If
CD slips to seven days then there are two critical paths: AC CB BE EF and AC
CD DF. If CD slips to eight days then the critical path shifts to AC CD DF and
the project duration extends to 17 days.
Problem 12:

Figure 8.12a shows the PDM network for the data from Table A of Problem
8-12 assuming that the data were applied as shown in Figure 8.12b.
Please see note about network depiction preceding Problem 1
1)

The critical path is 2,3,4,5,7,8,9.

2)

The slack for activity 1 is 11.7 days. The slack for activity 6 is 4 days.

2) The following table shows the calculation of the expected completion time:
Activity

Expected

10

13

10.2

6.2

13

15

21

15.7

10

12

14

12.0

11

20

30

20.2

5.3

3.0

10

6.3

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Appendix B Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
9

Expected
Project
Duration
66.4

Problem 14:

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3.0

Appendix B Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
Figure 8.14a shows the original network diagram for problem 14.
Please see note about network depiction preceding Problem 1
1) The critical path activities are A, D, G, and J. Activities B and E should be closely
monitored as a near critical path.

Figure 8.14b shows the impact of the projects performance to date.


2)
The project will be completed in 12.5 days instead of the 13 days originally
expected. The near critical path (B, E, G, J) is now critical. Activities A, D, F, and H are
now near critical activities.
Problem 16:
Using critical path analysis with the data provided gives the following table:
Activity Expected Std Dev.

Variance

2.0

2.00

4.00

3.0

1.00

1.00

4.0

0.00

0.00

2.0

3.00

9.00

1.0

1.00

1.00

6.0

2.00

4.00

4.0

2.00

4.00

2.0

0.00

0.00

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Appendix B Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition

Expected Sum of
Desired Project Variances
Duration Duration Critical Path

Probability

12

13.0

9.00

-0.33

36.9%

13

13.0

9.00

0.00

50.0%

16

13.0

9.00

1.00

84.1%

17.3

13.0

9.00

1.43

92.5%

For this problem the variance has to be calculated from the standard deviation, and the
durations provided are assumed to be the expected durations. As can be seen there is
about an 84% chance of completing the project within the drop dead time. If a little more
than a week is added to the duration, the chance of completing the project on time rises to
92.5%.

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Appendix B Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
Problem 18:

Problem 20:

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Appendix B Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
Figure 8.20 shows the network diagram for problem 20.
Please see note about network depiction preceding Problem 1
a)

The critical path is A, D, E, G, I, J.

b)

The slack on process confirmation (F) is 20 days.

c)

The slack on test pension plan (C) is 61 days.

d)

The slack on verify debt restriction compliance (H) is 20 days.

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Appendix B Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition

Problem 22:

Figure 8.22 shows the network diagram for problem 22.


Please see note about network depiction preceding Problem 1
b)

The critical path is B, F, H.

c)

Week 9.

d)
If activity E requires one extra week, the time will be absorbed in free float and
will not affect any other activity. If activity E requires two extra weeks, then a second
critical path will be created for activities B, E, G. If activity E requires three weeks,
negative float will be created and the project cannot complete in nine weeks. The new
completion time will rise to 10 weeks.

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Appendix B Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition

Problem 24:

Figure 8.24a shows the network diagram for problem 24a.


b)

The critical path is B, E, G, H.

Figure 8.24c shows the network diagram solution to problem 24c.

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Appendix B Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
Please see note about network depiction preceding Problem 1
d)
Given a float value of 6 weeks, activity F seems to be the best candidate to supply
resources needed to crash the project. Since the float is almost 50% of the activitys
duration, using its resources to work other activities is unlikely to convert activity F into a
near-critical activity. Since activity D is both critical and concurrent to activity F, the
resources should be transferred there.

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Appendix B Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
Problem 26:

Figure 8.26a shows the network, critical path and slack times.
Tabulating the calculations for expected durations and probability looks like this:
Task

1-2

10

0.44

0.67

1-3

0.11

0.33

1-4

0.00

0.00

2-6

0.00

0.00

2-7

10

11

12

11

0.11

0.33

3-6

12

14

16

14

0.44

0.67

4-5

11

1.00

1.00

4-9

11

0.44

0.67

5-6

10

12

10

0.44

0.67

5-9

0.00

0.00

6-7

14

15

16

15

0.11

0.33

6-8

10

12

14

12

0.44

0.67

7-10

12

15

12

1.00

1.00

8-10

14

5.44

2.33

9-11

0.00

0.00

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Expected Variance Std Dev.

Appendix B Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
Task

10-11

Expected Variance Std Dev.


8

0.11

Probability

1.65

95.0%

Desired Expected Project Sum of Variances


Duration
Duration
Critical Path
61.69

59.0

2.67

0.33

The next longest path is 1-3, 3-6, 6-7, 7-10, 10-11 at 55 days. It will only be a concern if
under some circumstances; its duration exceeds the actual critical path of 59 days. Using
the same technique for calculating the probability of exceeding a particular duration gives
the following table for this path:
Probability for path 1-3-6-7-10-11
Desired
Duration
59

Expected
Path
Sum of Path
Duration Variances
55.0

1.78

Probability

3.00

99.9%

Clearly the chance of exceeding 59 days is quite small. The same technique can be
applied to the next longest path 1-4, 4-5, 5-6, 6-8, 8-10, 10-11 which while relatively
short has high variance:
Probability for path 1-4-5-6-8-10-11
Desired
Duration
59

Expected
Path
Sum of Path
Duration Variances
49.0

7.44

Probability

3.67

100.0%

Again it is clear that it is unlikely that this path will cause problems with the overall
project duration.

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Appendix B Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
Problem 28:

Figure 28a shows the PDM network diagram for problem 28.
The following table tabulates the variances and probability for this project:
Task

Expected

Variance

Std Dev.

10

14

10

1.78

1.33

0.11

0.33

16

20

30

21

5.44

2.33

0.44

0.67

0.11

0.33

10

13

10

1.00

1.00

0.11

0.33

0.44

0.67

0.00

0.00

10

0.11

0.33

11

0.11

0.33

12

0.11

0.33

Probability

1.05

85.2%

Sum of
Expected Variances
Desired Project
Critical
Duration Duration
Path
44

41.0

8.22

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Appendix B Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
Problem 30:
The setup for problem 30 is similar to that for problem 29. First the spreadsheet in Excel
is prepared with the calculations for the paths:
1
10

1-2-4-5
19

2
1

3
22

4
5

Activities
5
6
3
10

Paths
1-2-4-7-8-11-12 1-2-4-7-9-10-12
23
25

7
2

8
2

1-3-9-10-12
39

9
2

10
3

1-3-6
42

11
1

Project
Completion
42

Then, similar to problem 29, triangle distributions are established to calculate the
durations for all activities except 9 (no variation in the estimate).
The resulting forecast for the duration of the project and corresponding statistics are:

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Appendix B Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition

Note that the probability of completing the project in 44 days has dropped to about 70%.
Problem 32:
The Pert Entry Form in Microsoft Project is used to enter the three durations. After
they are in the Calculate Pert button is clicked to populate the Duration field with the
expected durations. Note that MSP uses the non-standard terminology Expected in lieu
of Most Likely.

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Appendix B Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
Using the calculated durations, the Gantt chart looks like this:
ID
1

Task Name
Start

Duration
0 days

Start
Sun 12/11/05

2
3

Finish
Predecessors
Sun 12/11/05

7.5 days

Mon 12/12/05

Wed 12/21/05 1

8 days

Mon 12/12/05

Wed 12/21/05 1

6 days

Wed 12/21/05

Thu 12/29/05 2

14.5 days

Thu 12/22/05

7 days

Wed 1/11/06

Fri 1/20/06 4,5

11.5 days

Fri 1/20/06

Mon 2/6/06 3,6

8 days

Tue 2/7/06

Thu 2/16/06 7

End

0 days

Thu 2/16/06

Thu 2/16/06 8

Dec '05
Jan '06
4 11 18 25 1
8
12/11

Feb '06
15 22 29 5 12 19 26

Wed 1/11/06 2,3

2/16

The figure shows the default Gantt chart view of the problem, with a project start day of
Sunday December 11, 2005. Note that MSP moves the beginning of the first task to the
first workday of Monday the 12th. This display shows the default calendar of 5 day 40 hr.
weeks with no holidays. A Start and End milestone have been inserted to insure that
all activities have at least one predecessor and successor.
The tracking Gantt view can be used to display the critical path:
Dec '05
Jan '06
Duration
4 11 18 25 1
8
0 days
12/11

ID
1

Task Name
Start

7.5 days

0%

8 days

0%

6 days

14.5 days

7 days

11.5 days

8 days

End

0 days

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Feb '06
15 22 29 5 12 19 26

0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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Appendix B Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
The network diagram can be displayed directly from MSP using the Network Diagram
view. A portion of it with the default format settings looks like this:
a

Start

Start: 12/12/05 ID: 2

Milestone Date: Sun 12/11/05

Finish: 12/21/05 Dur: 7.5 days

ID: 1

Res:

b
Start: 12/12/05 ID: 3
Finish: 12/21/05 Dur: 8 days
Res:

The slack values are automatically calculated by MSP. They can be revealed in a number
of different views:
Nov '05
Dec '05
Jan '06
Total Slack
27 4 11 18 25 1
8
0 days

ID
1

Task Name
Start

Start
Sun 12/11/05

Finish
Sun 12/11/05

Late Start
Mon 12/12/05

Late Finish
Mon 12/12/05

Free Slack
0 days

Mon 12/12/05

Wed 12/21/05

Mon 12/12/05

Wed 12/21/05

0 days

0.5 days

Mon 12/12/05

Wed 12/21/05

Mon 12/12/05

Wed 12/21/05

0 days

0 days

Wed 12/21/05

Thu 12/29/05

Tue 1/3/06

Wed 1/11/06

9 days

9 days

Thu 12/22/05

Wed 1/11/06

Thu 12/22/05

Wed 1/11/06

0 days

0 days

Wed 1/11/06

Fri 1/20/06

Wed 1/11/06

Fri 1/20/06

0 days

0 days

Fri 1/20/06

Mon 2/6/06

Fri 1/20/06

Mon 2/6/06

0 days

0 days

Tue 2/7/06

Thu 2/16/06

Tue 2/7/06

Thu 2/16/06

0 days

0 days

End

Thu 2/16/06

Thu 2/16/06

Thu 2/16/06

Thu 2/16/06

0 days

0 days

Feb '06
Mar '06
Apr '06
15 22 29 5 12 19 26 5 12 19 26 2
9

9 days

This view shows the View Detail Gantt combined with the Schedule Table. Note
that the Gantt chart also displays the slack as a green line.

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