Professional Documents
Culture Documents
11
ASSISTANT COMMISSIONER - ENGINEERING AND RESEARCH
DENVER, COLORADO
DOWNSTREAM HAZARD
CLASSIFICATION
GUIDELINES
December 1988
PREFACE
The purpose of this document is :
l.
To define the Safety Evaluation of Existing Dams
assigning a dam's hazard classification ;
(SEED)
method for
2.
To provide guidance and present methods, for the purpose of downstream
hazard classification, for estimating the downstream area susceptible to
flooding due to a dam failure ;
3.
To provide
hazards ; and
To
bring
4.
classification .
guidance
and
objectivity
criteria
and
for
identification
consistency
into
of
downstream
downstream
hazard
Although these guidelines are intended to be used for all dams, they are
especially useful for small dams, and/or dams whose failure flood would affect
only a small population . For larger dams, downstream hazard classification is
usually obvious .
This ACER Technical Memorandum was written by Douglas J . Trieste of the Dam
Safety Inspection Section at the Denver Office . Deep appreciation goes out to
all of those who have offered valuable review, information, and suggestions
which greatly helped in preparing this document .
This
document
replaces
in entirety the previous hazard classification
guidelines, "Dam Safety Hazard Classification Guidelines," United States
Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Division of Darn Safety,
Questions or comments regarding the materials presented herein
October 1983 .
should be directed to the Chief, Dam Safety Office (D-3300) at the Denver
Office .
Assistant Commissioner
Engineering and Research
CONTENTS
Page
Preface
I .
A.
B.
C.
II .
A.
B.
C.
III .
A.
B.
C.
D.
IV .
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
G.
H.
V.
VI .
. . . . . . .
. . .
. .
. . . .
. . .
. . .
.
.
. . . .
. . .
1
1
INTRODUCTION . . .
. . .
iii
. . .
Lives-in-Jeopardy . . .
Economic Loss . . . . .
Multiple Dams . . . . .
.
.
.
.
.
.
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
. . . . .
.
.
.
. .
. .
4
6
6
. . . .
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
. .
. . . .
Downstream
. . . . . . .
. . . . .
.
Flood Routing
. . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
.
.
.
7
8
8
.
.
.
.
.
8
9
15
16
20
. . .
Introduction
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Existing Inundation Study . . . . . . . . .
Engineering Judgment
. . . . . . . .
.
Performing a Dam-Break/Inundation Study for
Hazard Classification .
. .
. . . . .
1.
Assuming a Dam Failure Scenario
. . . .
2.
Determining Downstream Terminal Point of
Recommended Analytical Procedure . . . .
3.
4.
Peak Flood Depths and Velocities . . . .
IDENTIFICATION OF HAZARDS . .
. .
Introduction
. . .
. . . . . .
. . . .
Permanent Residences, Commercial and Public
Buildings, and Worksite Areas . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Mobile Homes
Roadways
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
Pedestrian Routes .
. .
. . .
. . .
Designated Campgrounds and . Recreational Areas
Mixed Possible Hazard Sites . . . . . . . . .
Economic Loss . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
.
. . . .
. . . .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. . . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
. .
.
. . . .
21
21
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
24
26
28
30
33
34
34
CONCLUDING REMARKS .
. .
. .
. . .
35
REFERENCES
. .
. . .
. . . .
36
. .
CONTENTS - Continued
APPENDIXES
A.
B.
Bibliography
FIGURES
. . .
10
. . . .
25
. . "
27
. .
29
. .
. .
. . .
. . .
. . .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
A-5
A-6
A-7
. . . .
. .
31
32
TABLE
No .
1 Downstream hazard classification system
. . .
A.
INTRODUCTION
hazard
condition of
classification
a dam
and
its
is
not
appurtenant
of
potential
adverse
impact
The cost
the dam,
pipelines,
hazard
etc .),
on
related facilities
and project
Also,
classification.
losses
the
with
or
the existing
the anticipated
developments
of
associated
structures
human
(e .g .,
are not
life
pump
and
stations,
considered
consequences
of
in
is a
downstream
canals,
downstream
rapid
reservoir
drawdown ; due to a dam failure, on persons upstream from the dam are not
considered in downstream hazard classification .
Only the direct effects
of a dam-break flood on persons, property, or outstanding natural
The
Part 753
Department
[2],
of
the
establishes
Interior
that
(DOI)
hazard
Departmental
classification
which
dams
are
to
undergo
are
excluded,
to
be
for determining
whereas
those
having
1 Numbers in brackets
Manual,
is
identify references
a significant or
listed in section VI .
high
For
large dams,
almost
all
classification
hazard
large dams
it
Although
is with the smaller structures that these guidelines become most useful,
all
dams
classification
small
of
depth
dams
is
loss
of
analysis
often
if
uncertain
needed .
The hazard
and requires
detailed
technical
For
of
life
situation
regardless
(app . A) .
can always
how remote
be
imagined
that
the
location
of
dam
and/or
in
would result
how
Thus,
define
To
classification
2.
To
the
SEED
method
for
assigning
provide
guidance
downstream hazard
and
present methods,
for
dam's
the
hazard
purpose
of
3.
To
bring
objectivity
and
consistency
into
downstream
hazard
classification .
Section
III
on
estimating
inundated
area
is
included
to
present
by analysts
study techniques .
to
section
this,
hazards
IV
on
is
often controversial
identification
expected,
that
into
equate
the identification
flood
depth
and
of
hazards
and/or nebulous .
is
in
of downstream hazards .
velocity
presented
relationships
to
New concepts
hazard
iden-
It is
very
hazard
to
important
note
that
purposes,
classification
these
but
not
guidelines
for
studies
are not
an
are
intended
preparation of
for
inundation
or hazard assessments .
exact
science,
and guidelines
and criteria
intent .
similarities,
are still
there
major differences ;
Dam-break/inundation
opposed
to
hazard
performed
classification)
pose
for
hazard
still
another
assessments
set of
(as
criteria .
Such studies focus upon risk analysis which uses expected values . Thus,
guidelines and criteria for these studies are based upon the highest
probability of what is expected to occur [3] .
II .
The
system
presented
in
table 1
is
used
by
the
SEED
Program
for
Classification
Low
Significant
High
Lives-injeopardy
0
1-6
More than 6
Economic loss
Minimal (undeveloped agriculture,
occasional uninhabited structures,
or minimal outstanding natural
resources)
Appreciable (rural area with notable
agriculture, industry, or worksites,
or outstanding natural resources)
Excessive (urban area including
extensive community, industry,
agriculture, or outstanding natural
resources)
A.
Lives-in-Jeopardy
Lives-in-jeopardy
boundaries who,
dam
failure
situations such
flood .
as
Thus,
lives-in-jeopardy
does
not
consider
a washed out highway crossing (after the flood wave has passed) .
Lives-in-jeopardy
is
divided
into
permanent
and
temporary
Permanently
used
for
ties,
inhabited
housing
dwellings
people
including mobile
(structures
that
are
homes ; three
residents
per
use .
currently
to
utili-
dwelling
are
areas
that
contain workers on
a daily
(workweek)
basis .
(powerplants, water
industrial
plants
or
operations
including
materials
roads
along
the
channel,
on
the
crest
of
the
dam,
or
areas
criteria
for
significant-
the
lives-in-jeopardy of
and
high-hazard
"few" and
categories,
"more than
respectively .
few"
The
values
in
the table
two
average
seemed reasonable
households
average U .S .
as
It
as
"few ."
to
According to
the 1980
six persons,
lives-in-jeopardy
for
the
low-hazard
classification,
which
census,
had
The
been
"none
is
the
failure
likely
number
of fatalities
is
a forecast
life" .
that
Estimated loss of
would result
based on
from
a dam
the
the "estimated
loss
Memorandum No . 7 [3] .
Determining
judgment
good
flooding
of
by
the
analyst .
1 . to
2 feet
porary use .
of
loss
flood .
of
an
that
(0 .3-0 .6 m))
life,
if
any,
may be
such
a small
with
that will
that
if
safe
indicate
catastrophic
indicating
obvious loss
low velocities
in
areas of
tem-
dam
they remain
a person
current
buildings,
by the
automobiles,
failure,
is
safe
to
wade,
but i t i s conceivable
may
People
area
Analyses
life
in ACER Technical
residents
may
not
receive warning
or
factors
to
consider
regarding
flooding
but be
estimating
loss
of
life
may
are
its occupants .
allow
the most inopportune time of day (11 :00 p .m . to 6 :00 a .m .), thus, allowing
for little or no warning to downstream residents .
Due to
regard
to estimated
is
B.
Economic Loss
Economic
loss
commercial
is
that
buildings,
loss
resulting
industries,
from
croplands,
etc .
damage
residences,
to
utilities,
pasturelands,
within
officially
Also,
if
declared
toxic
parks,
harmful
or
significant quantities in
preserves,
substance
is
the impoundment,
wilderness
known
to
areas,
be
etc .
present
in
in
value of
uses
of
the
real
downstream
property
property,
the
loss
does
classification .
changes over
attempt
time
and varies
according to
is
made
to
assign
the
loss
of
the
due to economic
loss
is based on
no
guidelines .
Economic
hazard
not
include
dollar
dam
values
and
the
as
associated
project facilities .
Hazard classification
the analyst .
problem because it
economic
judging economic
However,
loss
is
is
rarely addressed .
involved,
if
a dam
is
lives-in-jeopardy,
value is,
then
only then
as
in most cases,
usually lives-in-jeopardy is
low
not a
classification will
classified
the judgment of
or
a factor
be based solely on
significant
hazard
that .
based
on
Multiple Dams
If
failure
of
an
upstream
dam
could
contribute
to
dam(s) .
be
the
same
as
the
highest
classification
of
failure
of
upstream dam
the
downstream
III .
A.
Introduction
Determining hazard classification based on the downstream hazard classification scheme presented in table 1 is straightforward providing the
lives-in-jeopardy
and/or
failure is known .
economic
loss
that
would
result
from
dam
Engineering judgment, or
Performing a dam-break/inundation analysis .
.
The
methods
purposes
presented
only,
as
here
opposed
publication (e .g ., EPPs) .
l.
terminated
at
the
recommended
are
to
preparation
downstream
downstream
justified .
always
from
Studies
consider
classification
inundation
of
maps
hazard
channel
classification
location
such
that
study
the
for
used
dam
if
high
channel
reach
to
inundation
the
channel
classification
hazard
for preparation of
full
is
the hazard
reached .
downstream
reach
hazard
for
maps
downstream
is
almost
terminal
point .
2.
The analytical
simply
engineering judgment
analytical
methods .
to
the most
detailed,
state-of-the-art
Hazard
times,
classification
whereas EPPs
do .
has
no
relevance
to
flood
wave
travel
B.
Many
dams
have
comprehensive dam-break/inundation
If these studies exist,
classification .
hazard
Frequently,
studies
these inundation
analytical
techniques,
and consequently
can be
dam-break/inundation
study
normally
contains
map
sufficient data
used
with
con-
depicting
the
likely be included
so
that
Regional
Emergency
Offices,
Management
the
Agency
U .S .
(FEMA),
Army
Corps
State
C.
of
and
local
Federal
governments,
and
Engineering Judgment
the
downstream
neering judgment
using
topographic maps .
l.
2.
a
classification
information from
is
based
a field
solely
on
survey and/or
engi-
current
For example,
community
from a dam,
hazard
in
located
the flood
plain
immediately downstream
or
point
where
the
contained within
water (e .g .,
failure
the main
flood
channel
would
obviously attenuate
banks,
or
reach
large
and
be
body of
or economic loss .
In the first case, the dam would be an obvious high-hazard facility, and
in
computational analysis
D.
No
Classification
If
hazard
comprehensive
dam-break/inundation
classification
is
not
obvious,
study does
then
an
not exist,
analysis
or
should
the
be
performed
information is desired .
"
1.
procedure .
Assuming
- The results of
inundation
scenario
study would be
priori .
the most
However,
accurate
if
for dam-break/inundation
studies,
failure
scenario
possibilities
a sudden
damage
structural
due to
Discharges
and
are
downstream
nearly
infinite .
this
dam
breakdown on
a large flood,
a dam-break/
from
a clear day,
erosion due to
flooding
due
to
from structural
overtopping,
different
dam
etc .
failure
conservativeness,
scenario
which
seeks
the
reasonable
is suggested .
intensive .
Fortunately,
the
potential
"sunny-day"2
for
failure
highest
This
it
procedure
is
for
selecting
hazard
approach
scenario
Usually,
in
large
Bureau
classification
dams .
may be
But,
for
borderline
smaller
between
dams
an
assumed
downstream
categories
is
sufficient
failure
that
classification,
results
dam
classification
could be
rarely used .
high-hazard
the
(table
hazard
1),
the
Assign dam
high hazard
classification
Step 2
Determine hazard
classification
Step 3
'H/C - Downstream
hazard classification
10
Assign H/ C of
dam break plus
PMF Scenario
MR,
Step 4
No
Sunnyday Failure
H/C is low ,
"
danger
flood for significant (or
1
possible)
Perform dambreak/inundation
study for dambreak flood
plus incipient danger flood
H/C increases
to significant
Yes ,,
No
Determine incipient
danger flood for
high H/ C
Assign significant
hazard classification
H/C \
increases
to high?
No
Assign
Significant
H/C
Step
1.
Assume
inundation
classification
scenario
is,
"sunny
study
inflow
failure
III .D .3) .
If
high-hazard
sufficient .
is
day"
(subsec .
for
flood)
the
dam-break/inundation
study
(that
would
not
less
than
conditions ;
with
high , then
that
large
is,
it
is
necessary to
determine
inflow
flood
the loading
increase
would
result
in
an
increase
in
the
hazard classification .
The easiest method
scenario
that
maximum
in
making
combines
flood
this
determination
is
to
(PMF) .
PMF
The
is
used,
rather
create
the probable
than
the
inflow
design flood (IDF) because the IN may be a less severe flood than
the PMF .
The
has
to
not
increase
tion
intent
account
for
from
an
confidence .
then
some
specific
with
classification .
the
If
"sunny
in
increase
with
combined
to evaluate
PMF .
a worst case
the hazard
obtained
change with
is
the
the
But,
day"
failure
the
inflow
hazard
flood
scenario
classification
can
dam-break discharge,
This
does
not
if
size
scenario which
classification
inflow flood,
occur,
it will
referred to
is
such
raised,
that
when
as
the "threshold
when
the
dam-break
classification
higher
assumption,
becomes
it
plus
than
PMF
that
for
necessary
to
"sunny
determine
flooding .
The
reason
in
flood results
for
this
day"
the
hazard
failure
incremental
is
separate
That is,
a borderline
flooding
hazard,
resulting
from
then
a
would
dam
the
failure
dam
can
actually
have
higher
hazard
a natural
the
due to
is
to
flooding
additional
cause
flood .
(incremental)
the
"borderline
classification
under
For example,
inundation
of
one
dwelling
downstream .
13
But,
if
the
hazard
classification
dam
fails
combined
is
evaluated
during
with
the
the
PMF
PMF
under
event
PMF
and
discharge),
assumptions
the
the
(that
dam-break
dam
is
the
is,
discharge
rated
low
is
hazard
dwelling
is
by
inundated
the
PMF
whether
not
or
fails) .
the
dam
Increasing the loading conditions does not always raise the hazard
classification .
For example,
consider
a small
floods .
failure
flood
The
dam . i s
conditions .
(not
However,
including
large loss
of
life
low hazard
downstream
failure
dam
with
imperceptible .
such
Thus,
under
flooding
discharge)
rated
loss .
from
day"
a runoff
would
result
in
a flood would
the
"sunny
be
negligible
be
and
rated low
hazard .
Because
situations
similar to
is important .
Step
3.
place)
and
the
Route
determine
PMF
alone
the
manner as
(without
"hazard
considering
classification"
the dam
in
the
that obtained from the dam failure discharge plus PMF scenario
obtained,
break
here
then
plus
is
hazard
effects
the
PMF
that
hazard
scenario
the
of
classification
is
assigned
incremental
classification
in
same
above
to
effects of
that
for
obtained
the dam .
from
the
is
dam
The reasoning
PMF
alone ;
inundation
hence,
the
should
not
be ignored .
Step 4 .
raises
the
that
incremental
classification
"incipient
question
effects
are
danger
determining
the
incipient flooding .
that
from
of
flood"
is
To
sized .
discharge
hazard",
that
see
"sunny
make
day"
flood
this
This
subsec .
on
the
then
hazard
evaluation,
is
results
failure,
accomplished
in
IV .A .)
the
to
hazard
the
by
in
experience
floodwater reaching
results in
dam-break
evaluated .
flood
("possible
house having
obtained
a roadway just
14
is
danger
flood
to
dam-break ;
with
combined
dam-break
flood,
and
the
by
or
determining
an
inflow
hydrograph
flood
such that when routed to the downstream hazard site, its peak will
equal the incipient danger flood peak .
downstream hazard classification is determined by
The incremental
incremental
the
low-danger
differences
zone,
then
in
depths
and
velocities
incremental
the
If
are within
lives-in-jeopardy
is
section IV .
If
hazard
the
classification
flooding
increased
from
specific-size natural
is
capable
dam
the
flood .
of inundation
raises,
Thus,
then
it
failure
is
the
result
of
with
combined
that
by the
2.
break
flood
routing
needs
only
to
be
performed
for
distance
downstream from the dam until the hazard classification can be ascerFor
tained, or until "adequate floodwater disposal" is reached .
example, if a community located 1 mile (1 .6 km) downstream from a dam
would be inundated by a dam failure flood and hence the dam would be
assigned a high-hazard classification, then additional downstream
analysis
is
not
necessary,
because
additional
analysis
would
not
This
includes such
situations
as :
" No human occupancy
15
Recommended Analytical
General .
a.
compromise
sive
The
between
procedure
presented
simplistic
in
in
studies .
hydraulics
background,
this
subsection
This
procedure
dam-break/inundation
performing
result
Procedure . -
and will
is
methods for
not require an
will
exten-
results .
The
procedure
is
simply
Service Simplified
and
criteria
application
Dam-Break Model
given
for
of
(SMPDBK)
determination
parameters .
Tests of SMPDBK
DAMBRK model
[6),
the
versus
National
[5],
of
with
Weather
guidelines
model
all
input
Weather Service
the National
flood forecasting model, have indicated accuracy of SMPDBK in computing peak flood depths and velocities to be less than 20 percent
of those computed from using DAMBRK, as long as model
are
violated .
not
This
particularly
applies
assumptions
backwater
to
con-
input parameters
still
be
"correct ."
Due
this,
to
SMPDBK
results
can also
vary
range
from
liberal
to
conservative ;
that
is,
and
depths
this
while
discharges
tion
resulting
in
reasonable upper-limit
maximum values
tions,
and velocities .
peak
breach
Such reasonable
with
downstream flooding .
The
breach
(width
of
parameters
rectangular
TFM
(time
breach)
for
need
breach
to
special
develop)
well
as
peak breach
(app .
16
A) .
When
BW
these values
as
attention .
and
Many
different methods
are
applied
to
specific
typically results .
different
analysts
results,
can
and
be
Also,
using
consequently
dependent
parameters
and/or
recommended
on
dam,
the
wide
method
values
hazard
used
for
discharge .
equations
range of
method .
downstream
breach
prediction
very
same
the
the
peak
different TFMs
the
from
study
classification,
predicting
Because of
breach
this,
presented
the
in
the following
section for determining TFM and BW are a combination of policy and
the consideration of historical failure data, intended to satisfy
one of the overall purposes of these guidelines, that of bringing
consistency and objectivity into downstream hazard classification .
Also,
the
parameter
inexperienced
analyst
background .
equations
and/or
are
very
helpful
for
proper
the
technical
the
majority
SMPDBK will
may have
of
downstream
hazard
to be
analyzed
that
classification
studies,
SMPDBK,
of SMPDBK .
contrary',
simplistic
facilities
may not be
calculations
available .
may
be
Should
adequate,
this
be
is
included
state-of-the-art
methods
studies .
that
they
However,
to
provide
of
information
performing
or
computer
the case,
on
the
various
dam-break/inundation
be
a method
applied
other
when
than
the
situation requires
"recommended
their
procedure"
use .
should
- SMPDBK
RIVN
IDAM
HDE
BME
VOL
17
SA
BW
TFM
- Time
QO
NS
NCS
CMS
D(I)
FLD(I)
- Depth (ft)
be computed
- Elevation (m .s .l .)
BS(K,I)
Criteria
determining
input
values
follow .
Should
an
may
be
but
done,
should
classification report .
be
documented
in
the
hazard
normal
pool,
failure
1 .0
foot
1 .0 foot .
enter normal
where
(for
dam
is
pool
elevation .
assumed
example),
enter
to
fail
dam
assumed to
fail
at
For an overtopping
when
crest
overtopped
elevation
by
plus
and
stone-masonry
dam :
Same as
for
earthen
dam
to BME .
BW .
Earthen dam :
BW = 3 (HDE - BME) .
BW = 0 .375
BW = 0 .3
(CL + BL) .
(CL + BL) .
BW = 2 .5 (HDE - BME) .
TFM = 0 .20 BW .
instantaneous failure .
0 .050 BW .
Stone-masonry dam :
Rock-placed dam :
Q0 .
Use
maximum
or
TFM = 0 .075 BW
TFM = 0 .125 BW
spillway,
outlet,
and
overtopping
(when
NS .
Use
sufficient
than
cross
for
channels
section geometry .
that
in
vary significantly
cross
Note
that
the
slope
used
in
Thus,
sections
the
so
it
that
dam can
be
is
the
important
true
slope
calculated
as
model .
FLD(I) . - Enter 0 .
HS(K,I),
BS(K,I),
determined
However,
or
15 m),
select
accurately
and BSS(K,I) .
than
typical
values
ties
1988
cross
from
by
the
can usually be
commensurate
possible
Use
two
downstream
- These values
as
these
lacking,
may be necessary.
CM(K,I) .
sub-
- D(1)] / [Elev(2) -
immediately
when
to
discharge
breach
with
When
large
in doubt,
40 ft, or
10
a field survey
floods
range of values .
rather
select values
Peak Flood Depths and Velocities . - Both peak depths and velociare needed for the criteria specified in
version
of
SMPDBK
velocity .
area
of
flow
outputs
To
at
peak
depths
determine peak
section IV .
at
each
velocity,
The March
cross
section,
compute cross-
interest
and divide
many
hazard
classifications
are
to
be
performed using
SMPDBK,
IDENTIFICATION OF HAZARDS
IV .
A.
Introduction
impact
hazard
of
is
one
constitute
that
has
hazard,
been
but
identified
field
as
work
having
and/or
the
A possible
possibility to
analysis
needs
hazards
surveys,
and
situation that
or
economic
are
is
loss
identified
from
information
from
suspicious
due to
analysis
downstream
is
not
hazard
necessary
Some
classification
because
maps,
"locals ."
photographs,
They
of having potential
a dam failure .
section II .
Sometimes,
topographic
include
any
for lives-in-jeopardy
examples
is
be
to
are
obvious .
lives would be
in
in
listed
That
is,
jeopardy,
an
and/or
property damage would occur, with little doubt, due to a dam failure .
Analysis
does
not
always
prove
possible
hazard
to
be
that
but will
this
will
by
Analysis may
in
loss
of
life?
If
floodwater
or
go
out of
of water,
confirmed
control
If not, will
due to
a vehicle be
hydroplaning?
Or,
a vehicle crash due to a damaged road or bridge after the flood has
passed?
Questions
and
gray
areas
regarding
such
as
these
identification
are
of
the
underlying
downstream hazards .
B.
E.
through
through
6)
that
contain
are
indicative
with
agreement
Associates [9] .
with
Inc .
[10],
University
case,
and
by
has
depth
versus
dangerous
velocity
floodflows for
the
theoretical
Figure
analysis
performed
is
by
in
reasonable
Simons,
Li
and
a theoretical
research
by
theoretically
of
of
curves
Abt
been
analysis
laboratory
and
done
there would be
performed by David J .
flume
Wittler
on
this
study
using
topic ;
monoliths
however,
discrepancies which
21
Love
performed
cannot
at
[11] .
even
be
if
and Associates,
Colorado
State
Very little
this
were
the
many
initial
assumptions
variables that
sized
by
subjects,
the
have
Abt
to
in
even
ability of
very
be
have
[111
be
made,
laboratory
subject to
large
very
and philosophy .
who conclude,
a controlled
the
to
considered,
and Wittler
that
of
"Physical
tests of
environment,
number
human
indicated that
conditions
dif-
is
reasonable
depth-velocity
three zones :
danger
flood
level
relationships
velocity
zone .
combination
lives-in-jeopardy
assumed to be zero .
High-danger
velocity
that
If
possible
plotting
associated
zone .
If
combination
within
with
this
is
within
subject
zone,
possible
possible
plotting
hazard
then
to
the
downstream
hazard
is
subject
this
zone,
then
depth-
number
hazards
to
it
zone .
two extremes
- The low-danger
of
two
is
assumed
assessing
extremes
exists
lives-in-jeopardy .
is
of
depth-
Judgment
into
An explanation of
divided
are
zone
of
respectively .
uncertainty
Because
every
with
flood
of
no
Between
respect
situation
to
is
analyst
jeopardy .
agreement
use
to
engineering
Whenever
among
determination .
include :
possible,
analysts
very
be
for
determining
opinions,
reached
in
and
lives-ina
making
common
this
several
should
- A designated campground,
very
judgment
total
time
during
facilities may be
a year
(e .g .,
visited for a
100 person-hours) .
22
figure 5 or 6,
is
sidered zero .
very small
- The total time that the flood depths and velocities reach magnitudes within the judgment zone .
from
a small
reservoir that
little
rapidly reaches
a peak
discharge,
use,
then
the
chance
of
flooding
heavily
traveled
a vehicle
being
highway
that
could
receive
likely to be "caught"
in a flood situation .
should
considered possible .
- A
residence
zone
may
be
subject
a
to
be
used
such
that
a flood depth-velocity
three-story,
well-built,
brick
loss of
in
and
life
is
the judgment
home .
In
such
a case, the assumption could be made that the occupants are not
in
serious
danger
short duration .
especially
However,
if
the flooding
occupants
of
is
of
fairly
a single-story,
poorly
frame
houses
be
may
provide
However,
aware of
safety
to
should be
occupants
the flood
(e .g .,
not sleeping)
and
in
the
ditions
in
low-danger
the
zone,
high-danger
figures 2 through 6 .
However,
or
zone,
no
If the
lives are
then
such
in jeopardy
reasoning
can
for conoverride
many
hazard
classifications,
especially
where
large
dams
and
because of
hazard
classification
of
a dam
23
is
But,
for situations
an
vehicle)
may
situations,
be
in
danger,
these
and velocity,
"with
the possible
hazard
should
used .
be
In
such
confidence "
site
figures
as to
at
the floods
depths
and
conservative
in
the
velocities
approach
path
of
cannot
should
dam-break
be
be
predicted with
used
flood
that
is
But,
depths
used
the susceptibility of
for estimating
velocities,
downstream
hazard
Then,
should
performing
predicted depths
sensitivity analyses
routing parameters .
If
and
a possible
the analysts
and velocities
on
critical
predicted depths
is
considered
confident
be confirmed as
danger
then
in
downstream hazard .
confidence,
hazard to
impacts
can decide
if
the
a downstream hazard,
can be
ascertained
by
and velocities
at
a specific
parameters,
confidence ."
then
More
used
is
of
stated .
economic
Thus,
loss
is
the decision
depth-velocity-damage
of the analyst,
relationship
as
curves
previously
and Public
and Worksite
Buildings,
Areas
Permanent residences
and hooked
to
are considered
utilities .
Some
dwellings
attached
basis .
This
includes
to foundations,
farm
oil
foun-
IV .C .
to
and
a daily (work
gas
operations,
24
However,
but
3 .0
10
15
Velocity (ft/s)
20
25
only
if
justifiable ,
occupants of
within
lives-in-jeopardy
dwellings subject to
the judgment
occupants
no
of
zone .
dwellings
a flood
has
to
to
with
associated
depth
Lives-in-jeopardy is
subject
be
associated with
always
combination
flood
of
and
depth
velocity
flood
depth
and
velocity
cannot
be
predicted with
reasonable
con-
situations
where
pedestrians
may
be
factor
in
the
downstream
IV .E .
Mobile Homes
Mobile
home
parks
in
flood plains
due to zoning
occupants
as
of
mobile
from relatively
relationships
homes,
small
(fig .
floods .
are
very
susceptible
than
those
for
houses
lives-in-jeopardy
within
depth
the
and
However,
inundation
velocity
but
associated with
includes
all
occupants
boundaries,
plotting
only
if
subject
above
the
justifiable ,
occupants
of
to
movement
other
3),
they
mobile
of
to
homes
combination
low-danger
no
on
mobile
zone
of
located
of
flood
figure
lives-in-jeopardy
homes subject to
level
foundations,
has
to
3.
be
a combination of
Lives-in-
combination
of
flood
depth
and
velocity
plotting
within
the
high-danger zone except very special cases where the analyst can present
strong justification .
If
flood
depth
and
velocity
cannot
be
predicted with
reasonable
con-
inundated
area
with
no
reference
to
depth
and velocity,
and
the
HIGH DANGER ZONE - Occupants of almost any size mobile home are in
danger from flood water.
JUDGEMENT ZONE - Danger level is based upon engineering judgement.
LOW DANGER ZONE - Occupants of almost any size mobile home are not seriously
in danger from flood water.
0.5
3
.0
4 .0 Velocit (m/s)
8
Velocity (ft/ s)
10
12
14
16
D.
Roadways
inundates a roadway,
in a canyon .
These include :
However,
impacts
from
dam-break
flood
(subsec .
I .A .),
situations
such
as
vehicle crash resulting from road damage after the flood wave has passed
are
not
that
considered
when
estimating
or
lives-in-jeopardy
inundation
plotting
boundaries
above the
includes
subject
It
is
assumed
is inundated .
The
lives-in-jeopardy .
all
to
occupants
of
a combination
low-danger zone
of
figure 4 .
vehicles
of
within
and
depth
it
the
velocity
but only if
However,
subject to
the judgment
occupants
of
vehicles
Lives-in-jeopardy is
subject
to
always
combination
of
associated with
flood
depth
and
velocity plotting within the high-danger zone except very special cases
where the analyst can present strong justification .
If
flood
depth
fidence,
likely
then
to
be
and
velocity
and
the
in
velocity
number
the
the
cannot
of
predicted with
lives-in-jeopardy
inundated
downstream
be
area
with
hazard
no
reasonable
includes
reference
classification
all
persons
depth
to
can
con-
be
and
assigned
accordingly .
A roadway will
fication
of
simplified
be a factor
a dam,
way of
only
when
accounting
it
for
is
paved .
the
amount,
This
criteria
frequency,
provides
and
speed
a
of
Velocity (m/s)
1 .0
2 .0
3 .0
4 .0
8
Velocity
(ft/s)
10
12
14
16
contrary .
For example,
in
located
a very
remote
Such a case
assumed to occur .
occur in
late spring
(rain-on-snow flood)
when
a roadway located in
an
in
road
if
can
resulting
thereby
classification
gravel
roads
unpaved
proper
also
in
present
justification
lives-in-jeopardy
significantcan
or
be made .
high-hazard
An
example is
This
canyon,
a dam
passes
through
likely result
in
long
narrow
loss
includes
replacement costs of
only .
E.
Pedestrian Routes
Pedestrian
trails .
routes
include sidewalks,
Separate
and walking/hiking
danger
bicycle paths,
relationships
figures
for
adults
for
adults
and
children
respectively .
and children,
(versus one
for
figure
all
only
are included
residential
figures 5 and 6)
120 pounds
decision
(54
of
population .
so possible
areas .
kg) .
the
An
The choice
analyst
However,
based
when
adult
is
5 feet
of
on
considered
(150 cm)
using either
knowledge
populations
are
and
tall
(for
the
use
figure
5 or
6 is
understanding
mixed
of
(i .e .,
of
adults
the
the
and
are
not
treated
separately ;
instead,
30
they
are
assumed
to
be
0 .5
1 .0
Velocity (m/s)
1 .5
2 .0
2 .5
3 .0
3.5
any size :- duns rn<- :
mos
danger from flood water .
Danger level is based upon
engineering judgement.
Almost any size adult is not
seriously threatened by
flood water .
5
6
7
Velocity (ft/ s)
10
11
12
0.5
4
5
Velocity (ft/ s)
0m
The
lives-in-jeopardy
inundation
includes
boundaries,
all
subject
to
pedestrians,
located
combination
of
within
flood
the
and
depth
high-danger zone except very special cases where the analyst can present
strong justification .
If
flood
fidence,
the
depth
and
velocity
cannot
be
predicted
with
reasonable
inundated
area
with
no
reference
to
depth
and
velocity
treated
that
is
hookups,
to
operated,
may
golf
and
the
scenic
advertised
facilities
intended
for
attractions,
courses,
during
Such
by
a Government
via signs,
intended
for
brochures,
trails,
in
jeopardy,
maps,
recreational
etc .
vehicle
and
hunting
dam
the
For
failure
number
by
Recreational
fishing
flood
(unless
the
failure
agency or
primitive camping .
hiking
routes .
and maintained
is
include
facilities
include
areas,
and/or recreational
interests,
Campgrounds
areas
campground
owned,
private
be
and
A designated
is
con-
of
people
likely
to
scenario
For estimating
use
the
facility
such
the dam failure is combined with a large runoff flood occurring during a
certain time period
(e .g .,
spring runoff) .
In
such
For
example,
if
in estimating
lives in
the
facility only for the case when failure occurs during the spring runoff,
then
mating lives-in-jeopardy .
the spring
should
be
considered when
esti-
G.
A typical
all
subsections
comprised
IV .B .
of
through
permanent
F.
For
residences
of
all,
or
example,
on
some
if
foundations,
of the criteria
small
community
mobile
homes,
in
is
and a
Economic Loss
stated
economic
in
subsection
loss .
economic loss
This
is
II .C .,
However,
alone,
because
in
lives-in-jeopardy
no
hazard
dollar value is
classification
so judging economic
most
is
situations
consideration
loss
where
economic
also .
rarely
Rarely
based
on
not required .
usually is
loss
does
is
involved,
situation
loss
will
occur
resulting
in
significant-
or
it
is
best
lives-in-jeopardy
assign
to
before
lives-in-jeopardy is
the dam a
economic
loss
hazard
is
considered .
loss
is
is
less
than high,
based on
Then,
if
the
a high-hazard classi-
classification
high-hazard
economic
loss
However,
should
if the hazard
be evaluated to
V.
Downstream
hazard
CONCLUDING REMARKS
classification
is
important
as
management
tool
because it could be the deciding factor that determines whether or not a
formal safety evaluation and possible modification are performed on a
dam .
Determining hazard
classification
a "windshield
survey" or glancing at a topographic map to analyses requiring detailed
field data, sophisticated analytical models needing a high-speed digital
computer, and extensive user training and experience .
While hazard classification may be obvious for many large dams, it often
requires detailed analysis combined with good judgment for small dams .
However, detailed analysis does not always result in a firm hazard
classification .
buildings, roads,
etc .
tivity
Due to
and
consistency
in
assigning
hazard
classifications .
These
VI .
[11
"Federal
for
Guidelines
Committee on
Science
REFERENCES
Dam
Safety,"
Dam Safety of
Engineering
and
the Federal
Technology,
Ad
Hoc
Coordinating Council
for
prepared
the
by
Washington,
D .C .,
June 25,
1979 .
[21
"Departmental
Manual,
Part
753,
Dam
Safety
Program,"
U .S .
[31
U .S .
Denver,
Colorado, 1986 .
[41
Dams,"
Bureau
of
Reclamation,
Engineering
and
Simplified
Dam
Wetmore,
Break
Jonathan
and
D.
Forecasting
Flood
Microcomputers,"
Hydrology,
N .,
L.
Model
Hydrologic
National
Fread,
"The
for
Desk-Top
Research
Weather
NWS
and
Laboratory,
Service,
National
Hand-Held
Office
Oceanic
of
and
[71
Trieste, D .
Floods,
J .,
Proceedings,
Speciality
ASCE
Irrigation
Irrigation
Conference,
Black,
R.
D .,
Agriculture
Report,
Flood
Proofing
Engineering,
prepared for
Rural
Cornell
the U .S .
Drainage
Division
and
1987 .
Residences,
University, A
Department
"Project
of
Agnes"
Ruh-Ming,
Li,
"Car
Floatation
Analysis,"
Simons,
Li,
and
[10]
David
J.
and Associates,
Love
Zone,"
Flood
Prepared
for
Inc .,
the
"Analysis of
City
of
Abt, S . R .,
and R . J . Wittler,
Study,
Verification
Fort
City
Flood
of
Boulder
Boulder,
[12]
Fread,
of
Collins,
Civil
Engineering,
Colorado
Utility,
80523,
Department
of
Colorado 80306 .
D . L .,
Hazard
Colorado,
Department
State University,
a High
Boulder,
Colorado
Prepared
Public
for
Works,
[13]
National
Bulletin
Discharges,
No .
U .S .
210-6-19,
Department
of
Subject :
Eng-Dam
Agriculture,
Breach
Soil
Peak
Conservation
Costa, John E .,
[16]
1985 .
Hagen,
V.
of
Dam
Failures,"
Journal
of
Hydraulic
K .,
"Re-evaluation
Transactions,
of
International
Design
Commission
Floods
on
Large
Dams,
vol .
1,
Froehlich,
D.
Proceedings
C .,
of
1987 :
the
Embankment-Dam
1987
National
Breach
Conference
Parameters,
on
Hydraulic
Fread, D . L .,
ASCE Fall
[19]
Wurbs,
Ralph
A .,
"Dam-Breach
Hydraulic Engineering,
[20]
[21]
vol . 113,
Flood
Wave
Models,"
1981 .
Journal
of
No . 1, January 1987 .
Hydraulics , McGraw-Hill,
1966 .
1966 .
37
[221
APPENDIXES
B.
C.
D.
APPENDIX B - BIBLIOGRAPHY
APPENDIX A
METHODS FOR PERFORMING A DAM-BREAK/INUNDATION STUDY
Dam-break/inundation studies are both an art and a science .
Although
many advances in computer models and analytical methods have been made
in recent years, much knowledge and judgment by the analyst are still
necessary for meaningful results .
The purpose for this appendix is to present an overview of state-ofthe-art dam-break/inundation study methods of varying complexities, for
persons not familiar with or wanting more information on such methods .
From this, an individual can choose a method best suited for his/her
specific needs, resources (time, money), and computing facilities (or
lack of) .
As stated in subsection III .D .3 ., other analytical methods
can be used if the analyst has good reason to do so ; this appendix
presents such "other methods .
A.
If the breach size, slope, and time to develop are known, the breach
outflow can be determined using hydraulic principles .
However, unless a
major structural weakness and obvious failure condition are known,
estimating the breach parameters is based on previous experience and
engineering judgment .
Many assumptions can be made and scenarios envisioned regarding a dam
failure .
For example, a dam could fail from overtopping by a large
inflow flood or by piping on a clear day .
A thin arch dam may burst
almost in its entirety, or just a section of it may fail .
The complete
breaching of an embankment dam may take as little as 30 minutes to form,
or 2 hours or longer ; it can vary widely in size and shape .
The
reservoir may be half full or at its maximum capacity .
These factors
can only be speculated prior to a dam failure .
The type of failure (assumed)
and dam should be considered when
estimating a peak breach discharge .
Two basic categories of failure are
possible .
The first is an "overtopping failure ."
This failure of a dam
by erosion and/or structural damage is due to the reservoir overtopping
the dam .
The reservoir storage and discharge capability of the
appurtenances are insufficient during the occurrence of a large flood of
significant magnitude and duration to prevent overtopping of the dam for
a significant time period .
The other failure category is a "sunny day" or "normal pool" failure .
Basic assumptions are that the reservoir's water surface elevation is at
the normal pool level and the reservoir is receiving average inflow
(usually insignificant) when dam failure occurs .
Failure mechanisms in
this
case
include seepage,
piping,
embankment slope
instability,
structural weakness, reservoir rim landslide induced, and earthquake
induced .
discharge
can be
estimated based
on
four
Physically based,
Parametric,
Predictor, and
Comparison .
A discussion of each follows :
1.
Physically based . - Physically based methods are those such as
BREACH [121 which computes a breach size and shape using principles
of hydraulics, sediment transport, soil mechanics, and material properties of the dam .
2.
Parametric . - Parametric models use observations of previous dam
failures to estimate the size, shape, and time to failure of a
breach .
The breach is developed by time-dependent linear geometric
increments to its assumed final dimensions, and the discharge is comDAMBRK [61 and
puted at each increment using hydraulic principles .
SMPDBK [51 are examples of models that use this approach .
3.
has no
constraints .
C and m
A- 3
the highest value may not be a good choice for a conservative peak
breach discharge ; instead, it could be considered an outlier .
The
engineer performing the analysis must have a strong knowledge of dam
failure mechanics and hydraulics and be very familiar with historical
dam failures .
Only then can the engineer use good judgment in
determining a reasonable peak breach discharge .
Fortunately, estimates of peak breach discharge can usually vary
considerably
without
affecting
the
final
results
(hazard
classification) .
The difference in flood depths computed from
routing different
breach
discharges
downstream diminishes
with
distance downstream from the dam (fig . A-1) and eventually becomes
negligible .
This
distance
is
dependent on
the difference
in
discharge at the dam, reservoir storage, and channel configuration,
slope, and roughness .
This topic is treated quantitatively by Fread
[181 .
B.
The
dam-break
hydrograph will
disperse
as
it
travels
downstream
resulting in attenuation of the peak discharge .
This is illustrated on
figure A-2 .
To determine the amount of attenuation so that the
discharge can be computed at selected points of interest (such as
possible hazards), the dam-break flood is routed downstream .
Normally,
for the purpose of hazard classification, only the peak discharge is
routed .
Many factors
primary ones
figure A-3 .
Small attenuation
Large reservoir volume
Small channel
and overbank
storage
Steep channel slope
Little frictional
to flow
Supercritical flow
resistance
Subcritical flow
Many
methods
and models
are
available for
predicting
the flow
characteristics of a flood wave resulting from a breached dam .
Some of
the more popular, state-of-the-art methods are discussed and compared in
a recent study by Wurbs [19] .
Wurbs concludes "The National Weather
Service (NWS) Dam-Break Flood Forecasting Model (DAMBRK) is the optimal
choice of model for most practical applications .
The computer program
DAM
A-
- Dam-break discharge
AT DAM
hydrograph dispersion and attenuation
HYDROGRAPH
Distance
DAM
Figure
2.
SMALL ATTENUATION
d
m
16.
v
w
LARGE ATTENUATION
DAM
is widely used, well documented, and readily available from the NWS .
Some civilian as well as military applications require the capability
to perform an analysis as expeditiously as possible . The Simplified
Dam-Break Flood Forecasting Model (SMPDBK) is the optimal choice of
model for most of these types of applications ."
After using both models
in numerous dam-break/flood routing studies, the author concurs with
this conclusion.
In addition, both DAMBRK and SMPDBK have microcomputer
versions available from NWS .
SMPDBK [5] routes and attenuates the dam-break flood peak by a channel
storage technique that uses channel geometry data and attenuation curves
developed from DAMBRK [6] .
This method is physically based, accurate,
relatively easy to use, and not very labor and time intensive .
It is
an excellent model for hazard classification purposes when complicated
channel hydraulics are not involved and the highest degree of accuracy
is not needed .
If more accuracy is needed, and/or more hydraulic detail should be
accounted for, DAMBRK is a recommended model .
This model employs
the dynamic wave method of flood routing .
Only the dynamic wave method
accounts for the acceleration effects associated with the dam-break
flood waves and the influence of downstream unsteady backwater effects
produced by channel constrictions, dams, bridge-road embankments, and
tributary inflows .
DAMBRK routes the complete hydrograph, rather than
only the peak flow, downstream .
The DAMBRK manual states :
"The
hydrograph
is
modified
(attenuated,
lagged,
and
distorted) as it is routed through the valley due to the
effects of valley storage, frictional resistance to flow,
flood
wave
acceleration
components,
and
downstream
obstructions and/or flow control structures .
Modifications to
the dambreak flood wave are manifested as attenuation of the
flood peak elevations, spreading-out or dispersion of the
flood wave volume, and changes in the celerity (translation
speed) or travel time of the flood wave .
If the downstream
valley contains significant storage volume such as a wide
flood plain, the flood wave can be extensively attenuated and
its time of travel greatly increased ."
Most dam-break models (such as DAMBRK and SMPDBK) use some form of the
Manning equation for open-channel hydraulic calculations .
The Manning
equation is discussed in most open-channel flow hydraulics textbooks .
of
the input variables
One
that
requires
special
attention
due
characteristics
to
of
dam-break floods
is
the Manning roughness
coefficient, n .
To account for energy losses other than boundary friction, a much higher n-value for dam-break floods is used (or any other
large flood) than for typical within-bank flows .
The use of traditional
values of n will result in significant error because computed discharge
is inversely proportioned to n .
Trieste and Jarrett [16] discuss this
problem and make recommendations for selecting n-values used for openchannel computations of large floods .
in
the
dam-break flood models
improvements have evolved in
Many
flood
simulate
dam-break
State-of-the-art methods can
last decade .
discharges and depths within 5 to 10 percent if the key parameters are
That is, using data from historic dam failures that have been
known .
extensively studied (such as Teton Dam), modern state-of-the-art models
Unfortunately,
can very accurately simulate the actual failure flood .
study,
and these
most parameters are not known before a dam-break flood
studies
.
Some of
unknowns result in large error in performing such
these unknowns are described by Fread [18] :
" When will a dam fail?
" When and~to what extent will
a dam be overtopped?
A-9
" What is the size, shape, and time of formation of the breach?
" What is the storage volume and hydraulic resistance of the
downstream channel valley?
" Will debris and sediment transported by the flood wave
significantly affect its propagation?
" Can the flood wave be approximated adequately by the one-dimensional
flow equations?
It is very important that the analyst have an understanding of these
sources of error so that the results of a dam-break flood study are
interpreted properly .
These errors and limitations are presented to emphasize that dam-break/
inundation studies are not exact .
The engineer must be very cautious
when important decisions regarding hazard classification are based on
the results of an analysis .
For instance, if the results of a study
indicate that water levels from a dam failure will flood a community by
1 foot
(for example), a low hazard
should not be
classification
concluded .
Sensitivity of various parameters and different dam failure
scenarios should be evaluated to determine that if given the right
combination of circumstances and model variable values, the flood depths
at the community could be significantly greater .
Sensitivity analyses on important and questionable parameters are highly
suggested .
This is done by varying parameter values within reasonable
limits and plotting critical model results (such as breach discharge,
downstream discharge, and depths) against the variable .
In this way,
the analyst can decide if a variable value that initially may be a rough
estimate at best requires more care in its selection, and/or if field
Also, parameters that are determined to be
data are necessary.
insensitive can be used with confidence, thus eliminating concern and
possible future justification .
APPENDIX B
BIBLIOGRAPHY
In addition to the references listed in this document, other
reference materials for hazard classification purposes are :
useful
and R .
N.
K . Simons, Qualitative Comparison of Three
Routing Models,
"Proceedings,
Dam-Break Flood Modeling
U .S . Water Resources Council, Washington, D .C, pp . 292-311,
Proceedings, Dam-Break
Resources
Council,
GPO 859233
B-2