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Statistical Models for Computer Science

Paper: CSE-405
UNIT-I
1.

(a)

Describe the possible sample space if an if then else statement is


executed four times.

(b)

(10)

Use the axioms of algebra of events to prove the following

relations :

2.

(i)

AU A= A

(ii)

AUS=S

(iii)

A=

(c)

Define the independence of events and also the term Reliability.

(a)

What do you mean by Probability model ? What is Sample space ? State


and prove Bayes rule.

(b)
3.

(6)

Write down all axioms of algebra of events.

(4)

(12)
(8)

In manufacturing a certain component, two types of defects are likely to occur


with respective probabilities 0.05 and 0.1. What is the probability that a
randomly chosen component?
i)
Does not have both kinds of defects?
ii)
Is defective?
iii)
Has only one kind of defect given that it is found to be defective? (10)

4.

A series of n-jobs arrive at a computing center with n processors. Assume


that each of the nn possible assignment vectors (processors for job1,,
processor for job n) is equally likely. Find the probability that exactly
one processor will be idle.
(10)
5. (a) If a1 and a2 are any two events, prove that
P(a1 ua2) =p(a1)+p(a2)-p(a1a2).
Extend this result to n events by using mathematical Induction.
(10)
(b) In a party of five person, compute the probability that
(i) Two person have the same birthday (month/day).
(ii) At least two person have the same birthday.(month/day)

(10)

6. (A) Derive the product law of reliabilities for series system and product laws of
unreliabilitys for parallel system.
(10)
(b) consider four computer firms A,B,C,D bidding for a certain
contract. A survey of past bidding success of these firms on similar contracts shows
the following probabilities of winning :

P(A)=0.35,p(B)=0.15,p(c)=0.3,p(d)=0.2
Before the decision is made to award the contract, firm B withdraws its bid. Find the
new probabilities of winning for A, C &D.
(10)
7. What is Bayes Rule? The source of incoming jobs at a university computation centre is
15% from duke, 35% from North Carolina and 50% from North Carolina State. Suppose that
the probabilities that a job is initiated from these universities require set-up are 0.01, 0.05 and
0.02 respectively. Find the probability that a job is chosen at random is a non set-up job. Also
find the probability that the randomly chosen job comes from the University of North
Carolina given that it is a non set-up job.
(10)
8. Define Bernoulli trial and generalized Bernoulli trial. Compute reliabilities of m-Out-fn System as a function of reliability R using n= 3 and m=1,2,3.
(10)
UNIT-II
1.

(a)

Define PGF. Show that the sum of two independent random variables is
the product of their PGFs.

(b)

(10)

IC chips are purchased in lab. Let X and Y denote the times to failure of
these chips purchased from two different suppliers. The joint pdf of X and
Y is estimated by f (x, y) = 1 2e -( 1x+ 2y) where 0 < x < and 0 < y < .
Find the marginal densities of X and Y. Find the joint distribution. (10)

2.

(a)

What if MTTF? Give MTTF for any two distributions.

(b)

Let X and Y be two random varibables. Then prove that

(c)

(4)

(i)

If Z = X + Y, then E[Z] = E[X] + E[Y]

(ii)

E[XY] = E[X]E[Y], if X and Y independent random variables.

(iii)

Var [X + Y] = Var [x] + Var [Y]

(12)

If component lifetime is exponentially distributed with parameter then


obtain the MTTF for a series system consisting of n components. (4)

3.

A mischievous student wants to break into a Computer File, Which


is a password protected. Assume that there are n equally likely passwords,
and the student chooses password independently and at random and tries
them. Let Nn be the number of trials required to break into the file.
Determine the pmf of Nn.
a)
If unsuccessful passwords are not eliminated from further selection.
b)
If they are.
(20)

4. (a) Define expectation.


Prove that E [XY]=E[X] E[Y], X and Y are independent random variables.
(b) Write short notes on Computation of mean time to failure.
(10*2=20)

5. (a) suppose we are observing the arrive of number of jobs at a computer centre in the
interval (0,t), let the arrival rate be which
depends upon user population. Show that the probability of k jobs arriving in this interval
is given by poison PMF

(b) Two discrete random variables X and Y have joint PMF given by the following table:

Computer the probability of each of the following events:


(a)x1 (b)X is odd: (c)XY is even;
(d) Y is odd given that X is odd.

(10*2)

6. (a) Find moment generating function (MGF) or Z-transform of Geometric distribution


and subsequently find its mean and variance using the MGf.
(10)
(b) The phase X of a sine wave is uniformly distributed over (-/2,/2); that is,

(10)

7. (a) Define Joint distributed random variables. Write the properties of joint distributed
function.

(5)

(b) Five percentage of the disk controller produced by a plant are known to be
defective. A sample of 15 controllers is drawn randomly from each months production
and the number of defectives noted. What proportion of these monthly sample would
have at least 2 defectives?

(10)

8. (a) Explain and derive the expression for negative binomial pmf. Show that the
expression for its PGF is given by [pz/1-z(1-p)]r.

(10)

(b) Define and explain exponential distribution. Discuss its Markov property in detail. 0
UNIT-III
1.

Define the following :


(a)

Stochastic process.

(b)

Strictly stationary process.

(c)

Markov process.

(d)

Wide-sense stationary process.

(20)

2. Show that the first-order interarrival time of the non-homogenous Bernoulli process in
not memory less.
(10)
3. (a) Give the detailed classification of Stochastic processes.
(b) Explain the concept of:
i)
Superposition of Independent Poisson Processes
ii)
Decomposition of Poisson process.
(10*2)
4. (a)Give that n1 arrivals have occurred in the interval (0,t),the interval (0,t), the
conditional PDF of the arrival times T1,t2,tn is given by:

(10)
(b) Consider a computer system with poisson job arrival system at an average rate of 60
per hour. Determine the probability that the time interval between job arrivals is
(1) Longer than 4 minutes.
(2) Shorter than 8minutes.

(3) Between two and six minutes.

(10)

5. (a) What are the condition for a stochastic process to be called wide sense stationary? (5)
(b) Show that the continuous parameter discrete state random telegraph process {x(t)-<
<} with state space l={-1, 1} is wide sense stationary, if
(1) P[X(t)=-1]=P[X(t)=1]=.
(2) The number of flips N() from one value to another ,in the duration is poisson distributed
with parameter .
(10)
6. Define Bernoulli process. Derive the relation for Gy(z).
(10)

UNIT-IV
1. What is a M /G/ 1 queuing system? Find its transition probability matrix.
Computer scientist Kleinrock proves that
lim P[N(t) =k] = lim P(Xn = k) and G A (z) = aj zj = LB [(1-z)]. (10)
Obatin G(z). You must explain the meaning of various terms and symbols used.
2.

(a)

Explain the Birth-death process for a discrete parameter Markov chain.


Draw its state diagram and obtain steady state probability, Pk.

(b)

3.

(11)

Exlain following briefly :


(i)

Pure birth process.

(ii)

Pure death Process.

(iii)

Non-birth-death process.

(3x3)

Consider a system with two components. We observe the state of the system
every hour. A given component operating at time n has the probability p of failing
before the next observation at time n+1. A component that was in failed condition
at time n has the probability r of being repaired by time n+1, independent of how
long the component has been in failed state. The failures and repairs are mutually
independent if Xn be the number of components in operation at time n and {Xn,
n=0, 1..} is a discrete parameter homogenous Markov chain with state space I =
{0, 1, 2}. Determine:
a) Transition probability matrix P, State Transition diagram.
b) Steady state probability vector, if exists.
(15)

4. (a) Analyze the problem of computing average number of requests completed per
memory cycle in a multiprocessing system with two processors and two memory
modules using the concept of irreducible finite Markov chains with aperiodic
states.
(15)
(b) Define Birth-Death process for continuous parameter Markov chain.
(5)

5. (a) Give a two state markov chain with transition probability matrix

Show that the n-step transition probability matrix


P(n)=Pn is given by

(b) Describe state classification of a markov chain explaining transient recurrent and
absorbing state.
(10*2)
6. (a) Assume that a computer system is in one the three states; busy, idle or undergoing
repair, respective denoted by state 0,1 and 2 . Observing its state 2p.m each day, we believe
that the system approximately behaves like a homogeneous markov chain with transition
probability matrix

Prove that the chain is irreducible, and determine the steady state probabilities.
(b) Explain the concept of discrete parameter birth-death process.
7. Derive the relation for Chapman-kolomogorov backward and forward equation for
continue parameter Markov chain.
(10*2)

8. Explain the concept of memory interference in multiprocessor system using irreducible


Markov chain. Derive the equation for average number of memory requests completed per
memory cycle.
(10)
9. Explain discrete parameter birth death process. Also compute the steady state probability
vector v.
(10)
10. Write short note on the following:
(i)
M/G/1 queuing system.
(ii)
Non-birth death process.
(iii)
M/M/m queuing system.
(15)

CRITERIA FOR INTERNAL ASSESSMENT


Internal Assessment: 25
Marks of Att.: 7.5
Marks of Assignment: 7.5
Marks of Sessional: 10