SRA468 Visual Analytics

Homework 2: Risk Analysis for Earthquake Hazards

Mark Chandley | mac6374
This homework prepares you for subsequent work on the term project. It includes two parts:
Part I: Examine worldwide Earthquake activity
Part II: Examine Earthquakes in the US
Learning objectives

Explain how earthquakes relate to plate boundaries.

Query earthquake attributes to reveal how depth and magnitude relate to spatial location.
Map earthquake faults to determine plate interaction.
Create a report of countries affected by tsunamis, a secondary earthquake hazard.
Map earthquake data and local geology to determine seismic hazard.

Part I: Examine worldwide earthquake activity

In this exercise, you will use ArcGIS to visualize where earthquakes are most common and where the
largest earthquakes occur throughout the world. You will then take a detailed look at earthquakes to
discover where earthquakes of varying depths occur. Finally, you will examine the worldwide distribution
of tsunamis, large ocean waves often triggered by underwater earthquakes.
Before you begin
The data for this exercise is in the following folder:
\\UP.IST.LOCAL\VA\data\GeoHazards\Earthquake\World\
The datasets you are going to work on are:
Data file name
CITIES
Countries
Plates
PlateBoundaries
Quak7093
Tsunamis
W_eq-zones

Step 1

Descriptions
World cities
Geographic boundaries of countries
Tectonic plates
Boundaries between tectonic plates
Earthquake events during 1970 and 1993
Historical instances of Tsunamis
World Earthquake zones

Start ArcMap and open a document

Start ArcMap. Open WorldEarthquakes.mxd from the folder \\UP.IST.LOCAL\VA\data\GeoHazards\

Save a personal copy of this to \\UP.IST.LOCAL\VA\SRA468\XXXX folder.
Design a map showing the distribution of the tectonic plates and boundaries around the world.
projection of the dataframe to be World_Robinson

Set the map

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SHOW RESULT
Develop a map showing where major earthquakes around the world have occurred between 1970 and 1993.
(data about earthquakes are in the layer quake7093)

SHOW RESULT
Step 2 Examine areas with high levels of seismic activity. Generate visual evidences (in the
form of properly symbolized map) to support the following observation or hypotheses. You
may use more than one map if necessary
(2.1) Most major earthquakes are concentrated in narrow geographic belts. For example, one of
these belts surrounds the Pacific Ocean with a large concentration of earthquakes in Southeast
Asia.

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SHOW RESULT
Make a bookmark of this map in ArcMap and save. Name the bookmark as Southeast Asia.

(2.2) The heavily populated region of Southeast Asia experiences an enormous amount of
seismic activity. Another concentration of major earthquakes extends from the Mediterranean
Sea to the Himalayas.
SHOW RESULT
Make a Bookmark for this map, and name it as Mediterranean.

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Examine the distribution of the earthquake locations around the Mediterranean Sea.
Why do you think earthquakes occur lined up in some regions? Offer your explanation and illustrate it with a map.

This is probably because the Med sits on the Alpine belt which extends from Java to
Sumatra through the Himalayas, the Mediterranean, and out into the Atlantic. This belt
accounts for about 17 percent of the world's largest earthquakes, including some of the
most destructive

Step 3
Examine earthquake locations in relation to plate boundaries
Produce one or more maps to support the following hypothesis.
[Hypothesis] Most major earthquakes occur along the narrow boundary zones between the plates.
[Hint] In ArcMap, turn on the Plates layer and show it together with countries and Earthquakes. Set the projection
of the data frame to be Miller Cylindrical (World). Set the view to Full Extent. Using interactive query functions
to examine the plates of the Earths crust and their boundaries.
When you are finished, turn off the Plates layer.
As you can see by my maps, all the blue selected earthquakes are earthquakes that are 7.0 are above on the
Richter scale, which is classified as a major earthquake by the USGS. You can also clearly see that most all
of these major earthquakes are right on the boundaries of major plates.

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Step 4
Examine earthquake attributes

Notice that the attribute table contains fields for the magnitude, depth, and date of each earthquake. These are
common attributes for earthquake data. Within the GIS environment, these attributes can be used for visualizing and
analyzing earthquake data.
To determine the range, mean, and standard deviation of an attribute, you can calculate basic descriptive statistics.
Right-click MAGNITUDE and choose Statistics. The statistics window appears.
[Question ] What is the range of earthquake magnitudes shown in this layer?
(A) 0 - 9.7
(B) 0.7 - 5.6
(C) 4 - 8.2
(D) 4.2 8

Step 5
Symbolize earthquakes by magnitude
Symbolize the earthquakes according to their magnitude. Use Graduated Symbols (symbol size from 4
to 8), form 5 classes using Quantities on magnitudes
SHOW RESULT

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Try another way to visualize Earthquake magnitude. This time, form 5 classes using Manual method and
set the break Values to 5.00, 6.00, 7.00, 8.00, and 8.20, respectively.
SHOW RESULT

[Question] In which regions have the strongest earthquakes occurred?

The strongest earthquakes have occurred along the pacific plate.

Step 6
Select earthquake magnitudes greater than 6
Earthquakes of a magnitude greater than six are considered large earthquakes. Show a map of locations
of only the large earthquakes.
SHOW RESULT

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On the map, all locations of earthquakes greater than six are selected.
Most large earthquakes have occurred along the plate boundaries.
[Question] Why are there also large earthquakes within the plates?

This can happen as a result because as plates continue to move and plate boundaries change
over geologic time, weakened boundary regions become part of the interiors of the plates.
These zones of weakness within the continents can cause earthquakes in response to stresses
that originate at the edges of the plate or in the deeper crust.

Step 7
Query to find shallow earthquakes
Shallow earthquakes are those that originate less than 70 kilometers beneath the surface of the earth.
These earthquakes are common along transform (strike-slip) faults and tend to cause the most damage.
Show a map of those shallow earthquakes occur all over the world.
SHOW RESULT

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Step 8 Query to find intermediate earthquakes
Intermediate earthquakes occur between 70 and 300 kilometers beneath the surface and are most common
in subduction zones.
SHOW RESULT

[Question] In which regions do intermediate earthquakes occur?

Much of Southeast Asia and the Med as well as the Northwest tip of the South American
plate and the Caribbean plate.

Step 9
Query to find deep earthquakes
So far, you have identified where shallow and intermediate earthquakes have occurred. You will now use
ArcMap to locate the deep earthquakes, which, like intermediate quakes, are most common in subduction
zones.
SHOW RESULT

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Which regions experience deep earthquakes?

It appears that most of the deep earthquakes occur on the intersection of the pacific,
Philippines sand Eurasian plates with a few others occurring on the northeast edge of the
South American Plate.

Step 11 Analyze tsunami data

Earthquakes that occur beneath the ocean floor can generate very large and destructive sea waves, called
tsunamis. In this step you will add tsunami run-up locations to your map.
Design a map showing where tsunamis hit the coastline during the years 1970 to 1993.
SHOW RESULT

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Step 12
Select countries affected by tsunamis
With the tsunamis and country data both in ArcMap, you can select the countries that have been struck by
tsunamis. (Use SELECT by LOCATION and spatial relationship of
SHOW RESULT

[Question}. Which countries were affected by tsunamis from 1970-1993?

Please see screenshot for step 13

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Step 13
Create a report of countries affected by tsunamis
From the Tools menu, choose Reports, then click Create Report to open the Report Properties dialog box.
If necessary, select the Fields tab. Here you need to specify which fields will be used to create the report.
From the Layer/Table drop-down menu, choose Countries.
In the Available Fields list, double-click CNTRY_NAME to move it into the Report Fields list.
Make sure that Use Selected Set is checked.
For easier reading, you want the countries to appear in alphabetical order.
Click the Sorting tab. Click the first record under Sort (where it says None), then click Ascending.
Click Generate Report.
Examine the report of countries affected by tsunamis.
SHOW RESULT

Creating a report enables you to list attribute data that match the criteria of an attribute (or a spatial)
query.
Close the Report Viewer and the Report Properties dialog box.
Choose Yes when prompted to save the report. Navigate to your \\UP.IST.LOCAL\VA\SRA468\XXXX
folder and save the report with the name of your choice.

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Step 14
Save your map
Final_WorldEarthquakes.mxd.
In this exercise, we have mapped worldwide earthquake locations in relation to plate boundaries. We
found that most earthquake activity occurs along the boundaries between the tectonic plates. An attribute
query of earthquake magnitude showed that large earthquakes are generally distributed along the plate
boundaries. An attribute query of earthquake depth demonstrated that extremely deep earthquakes occur
along the plate boundaries around the Pacific Ocean, usually in subduction zones. A spatial query of
tsunami run-up locations and countries illustrated that tsunamis primarily affect countries around the
Pacific Ocean.

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Part II: Examine Earthquake in the US.

Learning objectives:

Become familiar with the US earthquake data that you will use in the term project.
Use GIS to identify critical infrastructure, facilities, and lifelines in the New Madrid hazard
zone
Analyze the population likely to be affected by an earthquake,
Map the risk to allow government agencies to better plan and prepare for such an event.

Large earthquakes in the western United States, such as the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake
(magnitude 7.1) near San Francisco, or the 1994 Northridge event (magnitude 6.7) near Los
Angeles, while destructive, are not surprising because earthquakes along plate boundaries are
quite common. What is surprising, however, is that some of the largest earthquakes ever to strike
the United States occurred well within the North American Plate.
During the winter of 1811 1812, four great earthquakes rocked the central Mississippi valley,
near New Madrid, Missouri. In recent years, concern has been growing over the possibility of a
similar event hitting the central United States in the future. This exercise gives you the
opportunity to examine the probable effects on the population if such an event were to happen
today.
Step 0: Preparation:
Make a copy of the folder NewMadrid
\\UP.IST.LOCAL\VA\data\GeoHazards\Earthquake\
to your personal space at \\UP.IST.LOCAL\VA\SRA468\xxx\. This can be accomplished in
ArcCatalog. First, make a folder connection to
\\UP.IST.LOCAL\VA\data\GeoHazards\Earthquake\,
and then right click on the NewMadrid to copy the
folder. Next, make another folder connection to
\\UP.IST.LOCAL\VA\SRA468\xxx\, and then paste
here the NewMadrid folder.
Step 1 Load data
Start ArcMap. From the Catalog sidebar, find the
NewMadrid folder in your personal space at
\\UP.IST.LOCAL\VA\SRA468\xxx\ (this is what you
copied in step 0). You will see something similar to the
picture on the right.

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Open the NewMadrid-Earthquake.mxd by dragging it to the table of content panel of
ArcMap.
You see a map of the United States containing maximum Modified Mercalli intensities (MMI)
that might result from an earthquake of magnitude 7.6 in the central U.S. You also see Modified
Mercalli intensities for the Northridge and Loma Prieta, California, earthquakes for comparison.
In all three areas, only intensities VI and stronger are represented.
In general, earthquakes in the eastern U.S. are felt over a much larger area than similarly sized
earthquakes in the western U.S. because of differences in geologic structure east and west of the
Rocky Mountains.
Step 2 View historic earthquakes
In the table of contents, right-click New Madrid MMI, and choose Zoom to Layer.
Planning for future geologic hazards often starts with examining the past, so you will start by
examining historic earthquakes greater than magnitude 5.0 that have occurred in the region
since 1800. Turn on the Quakes 5 layer.
INSERT YOUR MAP

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You see the 1811-1812 earthquakes in the center of your screen. You should also notice a large
earthquake that occurred in Charleston, South Carolina, in 1886 (lower right of the map display).
Use the Identify button

to learn more about these earthquakes.

Step 3 Compare population centers to the hypothetical earthquake

At the time of the 1811-1812 earthquakes, the central U.S. was sparsely populated. New Madrid,
Missouri, was the largest settlement between St. Louis and New Orleans. Today, many major
urban centers are found in the region.
Turn on the Urban Areas layer. Using interactive selection method to examine the urban areas
that are close to the 1811-1812 earthquakes.
Show a map of Earthquakes, MMI, and the four urban centers (selected).

Answer the following question:

Which major urban area is likely to suffer the most damage in this event?
Memphis, Tennessee
Nashville, Tennessee
St. Louis, Missouri
Evansville, Indiana

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Now you will determine the names of all the urban centers likely to experience at least intensity
VI-related damage.
From the Selection menu, choose Select By Location.
In the Select By Location dialog box, select features in the Urban Areas layer that
intersect the features in the New Madrid MMI layer.
INSERT YOUR MAP

Open the attribute table for the Urban Areas layer.

Click the Selected button at the bottom of the table.
Right-click the DESCRIP field and choose Summarize.
In the Summarize dialog box, choose DESCRIP as the field to summarize. For the output table,
save the file as UrbanRisk in your Personal directory under
\\UP.IST.LOCAL\VA\SRA468\XXX. Check the box to summarize on the selected records
only.

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add the result table to the map.

Close the Selected Attributes of Urban Areas table.
Clear all selected features.
Open the UrbanRisk table.
Answer the following question
How many urban centers would experience at least a VI level of intensity?
19
48
91
396
Today, it is estimated that a repeat of the central Mississippi Valley, New Madrid earthquakes of
1811 - 1812 would result in approximately 6,000 fatalities and $50 billion in earthquake related
damage.
Turn off the Quakes 5 layer.
Step 4 Calculate population density
GIS can be used to analyze the population likely to be affected by a given earthquake. Knowing
how many people are in harm's way and which of those may need special care, such as the
elderly, can help government officials plan for such an event. For example, government agencies
can better allocate resources; plan where to set up shelters; and decide how much food, water,
and medical supplies they need to stockpile.

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Next, you will examine the population within each of the five MMI zones.
Click the Display tab at the bottom of the table of contents.
Turn on the Counties layer.
INSERT YOUR MAP

The counties are symbolized by 2001 population using graduated color (grey) to show 5 classes
in natural break. This provides a general idea of the county population within the MMI zones,
but it does not tell you how many people are within each of the zones. You will need to overlay
the Counties and New Madrid MMI layers to get an estimate of the population within each zone.
Since the overlay procedure retains all of the original attributes from both layers, you will need
to adjust the population values for any county polygons that are split by an MMI zone.
To do this you will use Area Proportion, a GIS technique that redistributes spatial values
throughout an area. This methodology assumes that the population is evenly distributed over the
original area. While this is not always true, it serves as an inexpensive method for generating
estimates quickly and impartially without resorting to more accurate, costly techniques.
You'll start by adding a new field to store the population density.
Open the attribute table for Counties, click Options, then choose Add Field.
Name the new field Pop_Density and change the type to Double. Click OK.
Scroll to the far right of the attribute table, right-click Pop_Density, and choose Field Calculator.
(If a warning appears asking if you want to continue calculating outside an editing session, click
Yes.)

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Calculate the Pop_Density field by dividing POP2001 by the Shape_Area.
(Hint: Build or copy and paste the following expression in the Field Calculator.)
[POP2001] / [Shape_Area]
Click OK.
The resulting value represents persons per square meter.
Close the table.
Step 5 Estimate population within MMI zones
Now you can overlay the counties with the MMI zones.
In ArcToolbox, click the plus sign (+) to the left of the Analysis Tools toolbox to expand its
contents.
Expand the Overlay toolset.
Double-click the Intersect tool.
Under Input Features, click the drop-down arrow and choose Counties from the drop-down list.
Click the drop-down arrow again and choose New Madrid MMI.
The dialog box automatically created a name for your output feature class.
Scroll all the way to the end of the path and change the output feature class name to
CountyMMI.
Click OK, then click Close when the process completes.
Click the display tab at the bottom of the table of contents. Drag Country MMI under New
Madrid MMI, then return to the Source tab.

INSERT YOUR MAP

Next page

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The result contains only those counties within the MMI zones. Some of the counties are
completely within a single zone and others have been split between multiple zones.
Now you'll adjust the population.
Open the attribute table for CountyMMI and add a new Long Integer field named
POP2001ADJ.
Calculate the POP2001ADJ field by multiplying Pop_Density by the new Shape_Area.
(Hint: Build or copy and paste the following expression in the Field Calculator.)
[Pop_Density] * [Shape_Area]
Now that you have adjusted the population totals to the new areas, you can summarize the
population within each of the MMI zones.

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Right-click the MMI field and choose Summarize.
In the Summarize dialog box, choose MMI as the field to summarize. For summary statistics,
choose to summarize the POP2001ADJ field by its Sum.
Name the output table PopMMI, saving it as a Personal Geodatabase table in your
NewMadrid.mdb geodatabase.
Click OK.
Click Yes to add the result table to the map.
Close the Attributes of CountyMMI table.
Open the PopMMI table.
INSERT YOUR RESULT

You can now see the number of people that would be affected in each of the MMI zones for this
earthquake scenario.
How many people live within the MMI zones?
Hint: Calculate statistics on the Sum_POP2001ADJ field.
567,355
14,256,314
60,088,857
465,000,053
Leave the Attributes of PopMMI table open.
Step 6 Visualize population within MMI zones
Next, you will create a graph to help you better see the results.
Click Options and choose Create Graph.
Choose to create a Vertical Bar graph.

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If necessary, select PopMMI for the Layer/Table value.
Select the Sum_POP2001ADJ field as the Value field to graph. Select MMI for X label field.
Uncheck Add to legend.
Click Next.
Change the title of the graph to Population by MMI.
If necessary, set the Bottom Axis (X axis) label to MMI.
INSERT YOUR RESULT

Click Finish then close the Attributes of PopMMI table.

This graph shows the number of people affected within each of the MMI zones.
When you are finished, close the graph and turn off the CountyMMI layer.
Step 7 Identify vulnerable interstates
In addition to examining the population at risk, GIS can also be used to quickly identify
infrastructure in high hazard areas, including key bridges, primary roads, freeway overpasses,
hospitals, and hazardous material storage facilities. In the next few steps, you will identify
lifelines (i.e., interstate highways and railroads) that are likely to experience damage during the
hypothetical 7.6 earthquake.
First you will identify the interstates at risk. The risk associated with an interstate comes not only
from damage to the actual structure of the interstate itself, but also from the inability of drivers to
maintain control of their vehicles. In this step, you will use the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale
to identify the MMI zones where vehicle operation would be disturbed.
Since Modified Mercalli intensities are represented by Roman numerals, it is helpful to convert
them to integers to make them easier to select.

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Open the attribute table for New Madrid MMI and add a new field.
Name the new field MMI_num, and make sure that the type is set to Short Integer.
Add the Editor Toolbar, if necessary, and click Start Editing on the Editor menu.
Click Start Editing on the Starting to Edit in a Different Coordinate System warning dialog box.
Populate the MMI_num field with the corresponding numeric values for each of the MMI values.
For example, the Roman numeral VI is 6.
Using the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale, select the polygons in the New Madrid MMI layer
that have an MMI value greater than or equal to the intensity in which vehicle operation would
be disturbed. [Hint: refer to the MMI scale description to determine the criterion
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercalli_intensity_scale]
SHOW RESULT MAP

Close the Selection dialog box and the New Madrid MMI attribute table, if necessary.
Now that you isolated the MMI zones where driving would be disturbed, you are ready to
identify vulnerable interstates.
Turn on the Interstates layer.
You will now clip the Interstates layer to the selected features of the New Madrid MMI layer.
In ArcToolbox, expand the Analysis toolbox and its Extract toolset, then open the Clip tool.
For Input Features, choose Interstates from the drop-down list.
For Clip features, choose New Madrid MMI.
Save the Output feature class as IstateRisk in your
\\UP.IST.LOCAL\VA\SRA468\xxx\NewMadrid.mdb geodatabase.
Click OK.

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The clip output feature class is added as a new layer to the map. Rename the layer Interstates at
Risk, change the symbol to Highway, and set the line width to 1.
Turn off the Interstates layer. Clear all selected features.
SHOW RESULT MAP

Step 8
Identify vulnerable railroads
Now, you will identify railroads at risk.
Turn on the Rail layer.
Using the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale, select the polygons in New Madrid MMI that have
an MMI value greater than or equal to the intensity in which rails would be bent. (MMI=10)
Zoom to the selected features.
SHOW RESULT MAP

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Now use the Clip tool again, this time to clip the railroads layer to the selected features of New
Madrid MMI layer.
Save the Output feature class as rrRisk in your EqHuman\NewMadrid\NewMadrid.mdb
geodatabase.
Rename the layer Railroads at Risk.
Using the Symbol selector, change the symbol for Railroad at Risk to railroad.
Turn off the Rail layer and clear all selected features.
SHOW RESULT MAP

When you are finished examining your map, turn off the Interstates at Risk and Railroads at Risk
layers.
Zoom to the extent of the New Madrid MMI layer.

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Step 9
Identify secondary hazards
In this step, you will identify critical facilities at riskthose whose failure threatens life and
property far beyond their immediate surroundingssuch as nuclear reactors, dams, and
petroleum storage tanks, as well as hazardous or toxic storage facilities. Such facilities may
require reinforced construction or relocation.
Turn on the Dams layer.
Select the polygons in New Madrid MMI that have an MMI value greater than or equal to VIII
then zoom to the selected features.
SHOW RESULT MAP

From the Selection menu, choose Select By Location.

Select features from the Dams layer that are completely within the selected features of the New
Madrid MMI layer. Click Apply, then Close.
In the table of contents, right-click Dams and choose Selection, then click Create Layer From
Selected Features. Change the name of the new selection layer to Dams at Risk.
Zoom to New Madrid MMI.
SHOW RESULT MAP

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Turn off the Dams and Dams at Risk layers.
Step 10
Save the document
Save the map document as NewMadrid2.mxd in your folder at
\\UP.IST.LOCAL\VA\SRA468\XXX\. Close ArcMap and click Yes to save your edits.
In this exercise you used GIS to identify critical infrastructure, facilities, and lifelines in the New
Madrid hazard zone and analyzed the population likely to be affected by an earthquake, allowing
government agencies to better plan and prepare for such an event.