Daily Market Reflection

6th May 2016

USDINR

Market Outlook
It was a quiet trading session for Rupee against dollar as no such volatile
movements were seen during the intraday session.
The only important economic indicator that market awaited was UK
Services PMI which indicated that rate of expansion slowed for the third
time in the past five months, to the weakest since February 2013. The
Markit/CIPS services PMI index for the British economy decelerated
further, scoring 52.0 in April, down from 53.7 measured in March, and
below estimate of 53.5.

Reference Rate
Currency

Japanese Yen showed signs of fatigue and fell from recent peaks while
Fundamental News
the dollar was supported by optimism the U.S. economy could bounce
Firm dollar, growth woes drag Asia FX lower.
back after nearly stalling in the first quarter.
Dollar index hits session highs after U.S. services data.
Yen takes a step back, Australian dollar edges higher.
Russian rouble regains ground with oil.
UK services growth weakest in over three years in April.
United Kingdom 10-y Bond Auction increased to 1.66% from
previous 1.51%.

Date

Date

04-05-16

05-05-16

USDINR

66.8550

66.8075

-0.12

EURINR

76.8650

76.3225

-0.71

GBPINR

96.9250

96.5475

-0.39

JPYINR

62.6225

62.2550

-0.59

% Chg

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

USD

FOMC Member Bullard

Speaks

5:20am

JPY

Monetary Base y/y

29.3%

28.5%

1:40pm

EUR

Retail PMI

49.2

USD

Average Hourly Earnings

m/m

0.3%

0.3%

USD

Non-Farm Employment
Change
Unemployment Rate

203K

215K

5.0%

5.0%

4:45am

6:00pm
6:00pm
6:00pm

USD

%
Change
-0.04%
-0.10%
-0.24%
-0.09%

Currencies vs $
Currency

Close
(5:00pm)
66.5262
93.66
1.1422
1.4454
107.23

Prev
Close
66.5550
93.23
1.1488
1.4518
107.14

% Chg
-0.04%
0.46%
-0.57%
-0.44%
0.08%

Global Commodities

Event Calendar (6th May 2016)

Time

USDINR
EURINR
GBPINR
JPYINR

Rupee
Dollar Index
Euro
Pound
Japnese Yen

Currency Future
Currency

Date
Date
04-05-16 05-05-16
66.5388
66.5105
76.4597
76.3807
96.8275
96.5865
62.2100
62.1500

Commodity
Gold
Silver
Crude
Copper

Close
1278.43
17.36
44.94
2.1445

Prev.Close
1280.94
17.41
44.67
2.1690

% Chg
-0.19%
-0.28%
0.60%
-1.12%

Our Previous calls update

Intraday super star
Date
Currency Entry
04/05 EURINR Trifid special

Exit
-

Date
Currency Entry Exit
04/05
JPYINR
For our next calls click here..

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P/L
P/L
-

Overview
USDINR

EURINR

USDINR opened flat and traded below the previous close for
the entire session and finally settled on weak note.

EURINR aggressively dragged in the intraday session and lost

its shine so gained in the previous few sessions and finally
closed losing around 0.70%.

It is strictly facing the resistance of 67.0000 while immediate

intraday support is seen near 66.7000. Any weakness in dollar
can drag the counter down.
R1
67.0000

R2
67.2000

S1
66.6000

S2
66.4000

On daily charts, it again dropped towards the crucial support

of 76.2500 and closing below it can further result in sell offs
while 76.7000 is seen as important resistance.
R1

R2

S1

S2

76.5000

76.6500

76.1000

75.9000

GBPINR

JPYINR

GBPINR opened gap down and continuously dragged down

during the session closing on weaker note as compared to its
previous close.

JPYINR also dragged down as other currencies on appreciation

of Rupee and finally closed down.

On daily charts, it showed strong reversals from the upper

band of channel pattern and selling pressure may increase if it
sustains below the trend line i.e. 96.5000.

On daily charts, it had found support around 62.1200 as

shown in the chart above and it is expected to test the level of
62.0000 in coming session while 62.5000 may act as key
resistnace for it.

R1
96.8000

R1
62.5000

R2
97.0000

S1
96.4000

S2
96.2000

R2
62.7000

S1
62.1000

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S2
61.9000

Intraday Super Star

(Premium Section)

EURINR closed near the support of 76.2400 as shown in daily charts and weakness of Euro on global scale also suggests that sell
offs may continue for the coming session as well.
SELL BELOW 76.2400 TARGETS 76.1200/76.0000 SL 76.4000.

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Trifid Special
(Premium Section)

GBPINR has reversed from the upper band of channel pattern and even closed below the 100 day EMA on daily charts; further, if it
surpasses the trend line as shown in the chart above then selling pressure can be seen in the counter.
SELL BELOW 96.5000 TARGET 96.0000 SL 97.1500.

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