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This paper is concerned with the consequences of population growth and rapid urbanization in China since the beginning of economic reforms. Detailed urban-rural and
national population projections were carried out using an urban-rural population
model. Three main challenges crucial to China's future development were identified in
the light of the results. These are the agriculture-food challenge, the employment challenge and the urbanization challenge.
KEY WORDS: China, population growth, population projection, population and development.
further studies.
The paper is organized as follows: in the first section, basic issues of the population problem will be
among women having daughters but no sons. Underreporting of births and sex-selective induced abortion
have been identified as the main causes of this high
tions of future trends. Notwithstanding the rapid economic growth in China in recent decades, there have
age during that period, and the population experienced a negative natural increase rate of -0.46 per
cent in 1960 (Jowett, 1989; Shen, 1994). However,
gent family planning programmes have been introduced, particularly in rural areas, since the early
? 1998 The Royal Geographical Society
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33
obtain temporary registration in small and mediumsized cities. Migration to big cities remains tightly con-
dynamics are determined not only by the current levels of fertility, mortality and migration, but also by
previous levels of these components of change, which
effect the current age-gender structure. The higher
fertility rates in the 1960s and early 1970s produced
a large population group who are now at the childbearing age. The extraordinarily high extent of this
though the total fertility rate is below the replace-
1994). These methodological developments are useful to define precise demographic rates and to make
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34
TABLE I
TABLE II
Population
1949
1954
1964
1974
1981
1988
1995*
542
600
700
900
1000
1100
1200
Rural-urban migration is 'pushed' by rising agricultural productivity and 'pulled' by the increasing
demand for the industrial products and services with
the rising income of the national population. The
four main parameters in the demo-economic model
are the growth rates of productivity and the income
elasticity of consumption of the products in the
urban and rural sectors. The average parameters for
the period 1979-1988 were used for baseline projections. It would be possible in the model to simulate
other scenarios using different values of these parameters. For example, China's urbanization level in
the year 2040 could range from 71.3 per cent in the
baseline projection to 36.8 per cent in a specific simulation that assumes slower growth in agricultural
productivity. The model has been discussed else-
2020
2030
2040
2060
2087
334.40
367.4 0
450.04
530.51
702.50
875.66
1015.66
1122.59
1233.56
1218.53
766.44
768.51
778.57
781.49
725.12
654.56
578.95
481.01
306.86
151.02
1100.84
1135.91
30.38
1228.61
1312.00
1427.61
1530.22
36.63
40.44
49.21
57.22
63.69
70.00
80.08
88.97
1594.61
1603.60
1540.42
1369.55
32.34
tion model.
The main data inputs of the urban-rural population projection are the age/gender-specific data, and
mortality, fertility and migration rates for the urban
and rural populations respectively. All these demographic rates have been estimated in earlier research
(Shen, 1991). Three sets of projections have been
made assuming different fertility rates in urban and
rural areas. However, only the first set of projections,
which assumes constant urban and rural total fertility
rates, will be discussed here. The total national fertility rate will still decline, with an increasing proportion of the urban population having a lower total
fertility rate than the rural population.
1987 has been used as the base year for these projections. The projections of urban and rural populations depend on how these populations are defined.
Several definitions exist in official statistics and in the
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35
[ Urban
c
0
o
* Rural
0 China
0
a.
1988 1990 1995 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2060 2087
Year
increase slowly. For the rural population, this proportion will increase from 8.09 per cent in 1995 to
16.18 per cent in 2040, and then experience a slight
decrease at the end of the time period under study.
The initial proportion is smaller in urban areas than
in rural areas but it will increase much more rapidly
an agriculture-food challenge;
an employment challenge;
an urbanization challenge; and
a population ageing challenge.
tion per capita increased from 239 to 390 kilogrammes over the same period. There were two
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36
TABLE III
206.74
231.72
286.21
335.70
456.01
570.11
624.99
675.69
732.54
716.95
1990
1995
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2060
2087
Rural
China
425.69
632.43
667.52
732.42
778.53
878.93
955.42
950.13
435.80
446.21
442.83
422.91
385.31
325.13
267.46
170.00
83.86
943.15
902.54
800.82
the next 40 years. An official target of 500 billion kilogrammes in the year 2000 has been set.
According to the above projection, China's population will increase by 375 million over the period
However, it is well known that the major grain producing countries and companies are keen to control
0
o
= 1000
e 800
'
60000
400
Urban
Rural
_s -A - 0 China
200
_ 9o
0W
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TABLE IV
1988
1990
1995
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2060
2087
20.23
21.58
Rural
37
China
7.16
7.48
8.09
8.48
9.36
11.55
11.87
14.12
16.18
16.04
15.94
15.38
18.18
19.40
20.96
7.1
7.4
industries and foreign investment companies has rendered many state-owned enterprises unprofitable in
8.01
8.46
9.35
closely related to income distribution, welfare expenditure, poverty and social stability. The majority of
the population relied upon a self-subsistence agricul-
ment rate had also increased from 1.8 per cent to 2.9
per cent over the same period.
Considering the projected increase in the working
population, the immense employment pressure is very
township industries and rural-urban migration provided many employment opportunities. The total
number of employees in the township and village
enterprises increased from 28 million in 1978 to 129
million by 1995 (SSB, 1996). Only a small proportion of them (3.1 million in 1995) were engaged in
agricultural production, whilst the total number of
non-agricultural employees was 294 million. This
means that nearly 50 per cent of all non-agricultural
= 25
0
o
Q 20
X Urban
* 15
i
I Rural
10
1 China
OD
?a 5
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38
TABLE V
rear
Population (m)
551.96
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
1994
662.07
829.92
239
217
289
325
239.96
320.56
446.24
444.60
486.75
567.71
594.94
987.05
1143.33
1198.50
1312.00
1530.22
1603.60
2000*
2020*
2040*
132.13
143.50
390
371
371
371
371
1992
1993
1994
1995
71.9
33.4
20.5
362.2
131.7
64.1
23.9
519.0
161.0
86.0
24.0
461.3
132.6
80.2
33.0
462.9
111.9
84.9
31.6
392.7
Total
488.0
738.7
732.3
708.7
621.1
Year
these, rural villages and town settlements use 16 million hectares. The land use in small settlements is
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39
Conclusion
examined in detail.
potentially reaching 1123 million. Such rapid urbanization will have major implications for construction,
development and the use of natural resources.
This paper has used an urban-rural spatial framework. It would be of interest to examine the population and development issues on a finer spatial scale
such as at the provincial level, and such analysis may
become the focus of future research. Recent trends
in regional development indicate that major economic growth is taking place in coastal regions,
migrants (Shen, 1996). The growth of three metropolitan areas, namely the Zhujiang delta region, the
Changjiang delta region and the Beijing, Tianjin and
Tangshan region, could be potentially phenomenal.
Acknowledgement
REFERENCES
China since 1982: a new base line. Modern China 20: 243-81.
Press.
Gu, B. and Roy, K. 1995 Sex ratio at birth in China, with reference to other areas in East Asia: what we know. Asia-Pacif.
361-77.
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40
Zeng, Y., Tu, P., Gu, B., Xu, L., Li, B. and Li, Y. 1993 Causes
and implications of the recent increase in the reported sex
ratio at birth in China. Popul. Dev. Rev. 19: 283-302.
87-120.
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