MARITIME RISK FORECAST

2015

Managing Risk | Maximising Opportunity

Published by Control Risks, Cottons Centre, Cottons Lane, London SE 1 2QG. Control Risks Group Limited (the Company) endeavours to ensure the accuracy of all information supplied. Advice and opinions given represent the best judgement of the
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Copyright: Control Risks Group Limited 2015. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part prohibited without the prior consent of the Company.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction

AMERICAS

ASIA

EAST AND WEST AFRICA

11

Europe and the Arctic

15

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

19

Maritime Risk Analysis

22

Introduction
Public interest in maritime crime may have waned in parallel to a reduction in hijacks off Somalia in recent
years, but maritime risk remains firmly on the international agenda. The number of incidents of piracy and
armed robbery at sea rose by 26% in 2014, according to Control Risks records the highest level of
activity since 2011 during what proved to be a transitional year for global piracy.

tom patterson

Attacks perpetrated by Nigerian groups in the Gulf of Guinea declined by 12% in 2014 and Somali pirate
activity accounted for just 4% of the global total. Elsewhere, in a development that reflected a geographical
shift in maritime crime, the Americas overtook Africa in terms of absolute numbers of incidents. Asia,
meanwhile, not only accounted for the majority (30%) of attacks but also registered the highest level of
activity for over a decade.
Despite the obvious threat posed by piracy, a greater proportion of maritime operators are likely to be
affected by broader political, operational and security risks in the year ahead. Civil conflict and political
instability in countries adjacent to key waterways will complicate mobilisation and transhipment.
Geopolitical uncertainty over Russian sanctions will continue to impact dry bulk, container and tanker
shipping. Oil and gas operators will face further scrutiny from activist groups over Arctic drilling.
Meanwhile, an increase in the number of migrants fleeing conflicts in North Africa and the Middle East
will place further strain on Mediterranean shipping routes. These are just some of the themes to be
found in the pages ahead.
The maritime domain in many ways represents the ultimate complex and hostile operating environment.
Maritime operators have a high risk tolerance and have expertly mitigated a variety of offshore hazards
for centuries, but remain exposed to fluid and ever-changing dynamics onshore. In our Maritime Risk
Forecast 2015, Control Risks analyses some of the key issues that are likely to impact the maritime
community over the next 12 months.

Tom Patterson
Associate Director, Maritime

MARITIME RISK FORECAST: 2015

AMERICAS

Onika Adeneye

Maritime risk in the Americas is varied and covers a

diverse range of geographies, from complex inland
riverine systems to ports along the Pacific, Atlantic
and Caribbean coasts. The region is often
overlooked in discussions of maritime security in
favour of global piracy hotspots in Africa and Asia.
This is partly because of the high-profile nature of
incidents elsewhere, but also because of an
absence of robust incident-reporting mechanisms
throughout the Americas.
Effectively collating incidents in the Americas
requires intensive public source research. This
paints a very different picture to the simplistic yachts
and thefts narrative often trotted out. Control Risks
recorded 163 maritime related incidents in 2014,

including 72 armed robberies; 43 thefts; nine

hijacks, two of which involved tankers along the
Amazon River; and three kidnaps.
The false perception that piracy and armed
robbery at sea only affects local vessels in the
region exacerbates the issue of under-reporting.
Although the majority of cases continue to involve
fishing and passenger vessels, Control Risks
registered several incidents in 2014 in which larger
commercial vessels were targeted, including bulk
carriers, liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers and
oilfield vessels. Two such incidents involved
significant levels of violence directed towards
crew members.

Americas: Reported incidents by type and area, 2014

90
8

80

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Caribbean
THEFT

ROBBERY

Central America
KIDNAP

HIJACK

North America
ATTEMPT

South America

ASSAULT

APPROACH

ACTIVISM

MARITIME RISK FORECAST: 2015

Risks continue to vary by locality

The nature and impact of piracy and armed robbery
varies by locality. Operators in South America, for
example, are more likely to witness incidents of port
and anchorage crime targeting larger commercial
vessels, whereas North America (including Mexico)
is likely to see more thefts and robberies targeting
smaller local vessels. Meanwhile, Central America
and the Caribbean experience high numbers of
low-level thefts involving leisure vessels.

Seasonal changes also play a role. For example,

along the Pacific coast in Mexico, incidents involving
local fishing vessels significantly increase during
shrimping season, which typically occurs between
September and March.
However, Control Risks data shows that piracy and
armed robbery are not the only forms of maritime
risk in the Americas. In the year ahead, a
combination of domestic and external factors are
likely to drive trends in maritime risk.

FURTHER PORT STRIKES AND PROTESTS

LIKELY
High on the list of risks to watch in 2015 is maritime
activism, particularly in ports and terminals. The
region has some of the most organised port-specific
labour unions globally. These were particularly
active throughout 2014 and look set to remain so in
the coming year. Strikes and protests occur for a
variety of reasons and often relate to port
privatisation, salary disputes, labour conditions and
environmental concerns.

Americas: Breakdown of incidents by vessel type, 2014

LOCAL

MILITARY

48.5%

0.6%
MISCELLANEOUS

0.6%
OILFIELD

163
INCIDENTS

1.2%
PASSENGER

0.6%

TANKER

3.1%

South America to remain primary

focus for port and anchorage crime
UNKNOWN

7.4%
LEISURE

CARGO

29.4%

MARITIME RISK FORECAST: 2015

Strikes across multiple ports in Chile in January

2014 caused financial losses of millions of dollars.
Meanwhile, a two-week strike in October 2014 by
workers at the Costa Rican ports of Mon and
Limn resulted in violent protests involving
roadblocks and clashes with security forces that
delayed cargo operations. In extreme cases,
activism has also been known to affect the safety of
crew, as seen in 2013, when port workers in Brazils
Port Santos boarded the Chinese-flagged vessel
Xhen Hua 10 in protest at the governments plans to
modernise the nations ports.

8.6%

Port and anchorage crime low-level theft and

robbery will also remain a persistent, albeit
under-reported, issue throughout the region in
2015. The majority of incidents are likely to occur
in South America, particularly in Brazilian,

Colombian and Guyanese ports. In the last year,

several vessels were targeted while at anchor or
berthed in these countries, including bulk carriers,
tankers and supply vessels.
Organised criminal groups regularly use territorial
waters and ports to transport illicit weapons,
money, fuel and drugs destined for the US, Europe,
Africa, East Asia and Australasia. Such activities will
continue to pose security and operational risks to
the commercial maritime sector in 2015. Over the
past year, several significant drug seizures have
been reported in major ports, highlighting the
continued ability of criminal groups to operate,
particularly in Mexico and Brazil.

Colombia, which have in recent years invested

heavily in ports and terminals, the majority of
regional ports lack the capacity to meet the
demands of increasing vessel sizes or the
bureaucratic capacity to process growing maritime
traffic. This has led to long waiting times for vessels
awaiting entry into ports. As a result, investment in
maritime infrastructure is likely to remain high on the
agenda of regional governments, particularly in light
of the expansion of the Panama Canal, scheduled
to begin operations at the beginning of 2016, which
is projected to provide a much needed boost to
regional trade.

Corruption at ports will also remain an issue.

Inadequate port infrastructure has contributed to
a variety of corrupt practices within ports,
including demands for facilitation payments by
customs and port officials. In the last two years,
there have been several scandals implicating
officials and port authorities in countries including
Colombia, Honduras, Panama and Brazil. With
countries such as Brazil taking an increasingly
strong anti-corruption stance through legislation
such as the Clean Company Act 2014, maritime
operators will need to factor in corruption risk
when operating in the region.

Despite placing the Pacific port of Lazaro

Cardenas, Mexico, under military control in
November 2013, local security forces seized
119,000 tons of illegally mined minerals in a series
of raids at 11 sites in the port in March 2014.
Elsewhere in Brazil, security forces in the same
month seized almost four tons of cocaine
connected with Brazils most extensive organised
criminal group, the First Capital Command (PCC),
in the countrys largest port, Port Santos.
Inadequate maritime infrastructure
to constrain growth
Although not a new phenomenon, inadequate
maritime infrastructure will continue to constrain
growth throughout the region in 2015. With the
exception of countries such as Panama, Chile and

MARITIME RISK FORECAST: 2015

ASIA

Sebastian Villyn

Maritime security was a prominent topic of

discussion in Asia in 2014, driven largely by a
series of tit-for-tat exchanges at sea among
regional powers. The continent is home to some of
the most complex maritime territorial disputes in
the world, which continue to trigger low-level
clashes offshore. At the same time, a rise in
incidents of piracy and armed robbery at sea over
the last 12 months has fuelled perceptions of
increasing offshore insecurity. According to
Control Risks records, the number of incidents
rose by 28% in 2014.
Further skirmishes likely in South
China Sea
Following a year of skirmishes in the South China
Sea, 2015 is likely to see further low-level
confrontations between Chinese-operated vessels
and Philippine naval forces and fishermen. This is
most likely to be seen near to the Spratly Islands, as
China continues to reject the Philippines case in
the UNs Permanent Court of Arbitration and
following reports that China is constructing artificial
islands and port facilities on disputed areas such as
Fiery Cross and Gaven Reefs. Clashes are also
expected near the Paracel Islands, although these
will primarily affect local Vietnamese fishing vessels
confronted by Chinese ships.
The potential for maritime confrontations in the East
China Sea remains in 2015, particularly between
China and Japan. Although the two countries are
discussing the establishment of a communication

mechanism that could help prevent escalation of

minor crises, the bilateral territorial dispute is
unlikely to be resolved anytime soon. Ongoing
tensions have led to an increase in maritime
capabilities and patrolling near the disputed islands.
Despite some signs of a thaw in China-Japan
relations, Prime Minister Shinzo Abes push to
strengthen Japans military will likely see further
build up on both sides.
The maritime boundary disputes predominantly
affect offshore oil and gas exploration in disputed
areas, rather than commercial shipping. Seismic
survey and drilling operations have been
disrupted in the past, and the awarding of
concessions under such volatile circumstances
can expose companies to significant levels of
political risk. Yet the prospects of these scuffles
descending into all-out war remains slim, not
least because all parties value the continuity of
trade above all else. Chinas maritime silk route
is moving closer to reality, and despite significant
efforts to construct new domestically built
warships, the country still lacks the naval
capability to back up recent sabre-rattling in the
East and South China Seas.
PIRACY LEVELS TO REMAIN HIGH
Control Risks in 2014 recorded the highest number of
piracy incidents in Asia since 2007, and the majority
of incidents were registered within the territorial
waters of Indonesia and Bangladesh. Attacks are
likely to see another marginal increase in 2015, given

MARITIME RISK FORECAST: 2015

South-East Asia: Reported hijacks by type, 2007-2014

Variable success of counter-piracy

initiatives underlines limited
capability of regional maritime
forces

12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2007

2008

2009

2010

HIJACK FOR BUNKER FUEL

HIJACK FOR RANSOM

CARGO FUEL
HIJACK FOR BUNKER

HIJACK FOR VESSEL

historic trends and the absence of new effective

measures to tackle maritime crime in the most
exposed countries. However, suggestions of a piracy
renaissance exaggerate the severity of incidents,
which are typically low-level thefts and robberies at
ports and anchorages across the region.
Sporadic higher-impact incidents, such as
hijacking, will persist. The lucrative trade in black
market fuel oil, which remains a valuable
commodity in the region, will continue to drive
hijacking-for-cargo involving product tankers,
although this is unlikely to reach the same levels
seen in 2014. Control Risks recorded 11 such
cases, which was an increase of 450% compared
to 2013. Meanwhile, hijacking-for-vessel theft,

MARITIME RISK FORECAST: 2015

2011

2012

2013

2014

UNSPECIFIED

predominantly involving tugs, which are later

re-sold, will continue. The demand for such vessels
is driven by their high usage throughout the region.
Port and anchorage crime remains
the most persistent threat affecting
all vessels
Additionally, international operators continue to be
vulnerable to port and anchorage crime throughout
South and South-East Asia, particularly in the
southern South China Sea and the Singapore Strait,
but remain relatively insulated from the more
sophisticated pirate groups perpetrating high-profile
hijacks. Such groups for the most part continue to
target locally-flagged and -registered assets.

Counter-piracy efforts in the region have witnessed

mixed success over the past year. On the one
hand, despite the increase in overall activity,
Control Risks has recorded a marked reduction in
successful attacks throughout the region. Many
types of incidents are being deterred or averted,
pointing to the increased effectiveness of
hardening measures and a greater awareness of
the threat among seafarers. However, at the same
time, government initiatives such as the
Recommended Anchorage Location (RAL)
scheme in Indonesia established in late April 2014,
where additional patrols were to be conducted,
and enhanced naval patrols in Bangladesh have
yielded limited results, and have not contributed to
an overall decline in incident numbers. Conversely,
Control Risks registered a rise in incidents in three
of the 11 RALs during the first six months of the
scheme being rolled out.
Case for offshore armed security
still unconvincing
As was seen in the Gulf of Guinea in 2013-14, an
increase in incident numbers and high-profile
hijacks has triggered renewed calls for armed
security teams, particularly in the Singapore Strait
and the southern South China Sea, where the
majority of incidents continue to occur. However,

THAILAND

VIETNAM
CAMBODIA

VIETNAM
CAMBODIA
PHILIPPINES

the case for armed security in South-East Asian South-East Asia: Indonesian Recommended Anchorage Locations (RAL) and reported hijacks, 2014
waters has never been particularly robust. In
addition to the significant legal constraints, which
remain perhaps the most prohibitive factor, the
basic issue remains that an armed response would
be disproportionate to the threat. Most pirate
Sulu
SOUTH CHINA SEA
Sabah
groups plying South-East Asian waters are armed
archipelago
with knives and handguns, but their motivation andAceh
modus operandi remain very different to those
perpetrating the heavily armed, violent attacks
Sarawak
witnessed off Africa. Instead, maritime operators
should familiarise themselves with the threats
pertinent to the specific areas they transit, through
Singapore Strait
informed advice, and also consider appropriate
vessel hardening and, in some cases, the use of of
SOUTH CHINA SEA
unarmed liaison officers.
Kalimantan

PHILI

ca
ac

al

rai

it

ra

St

St

archipel

ar
ss
Ma

ka

Aceh

Sumatra

Sulu

Sulawesi

Malu

JAVA SEA

ac
al
M

Java

ca
St
ra
it

KEY
Singapore Strait

RAL, 2014

HIJACKS, 2014

Piracy increase

Hijack for cargo

Hijack for vessel

Piracy decrease

Hijack for bunker fuel

Unspecified hijack

Kalimantan
MARITIME RISK FORECAST: 2015

Sulawesi

EAST AND WEST AFRICA

Tim Hart

Piracy has been the dominant maritime security

issue in Africa for the past six years, driven by
activity off the Gulf of Guinea and the Horn of
Africa. However, operators should not focus on
piracy alone. As 2014 has shown, maritime threats
in Africa are both diverse and dynamic, with a
combination of political, security and environmental
factors set to make the maritime environment
challenging for operators in the year ahead.
Piracy levels off East Africa to
remain low
Levels of pirate activity are likely to remain low off
East Africa over the next year, reflecting a decline in

hijacking-for-ransom by Somali pirate groups since

mid-2011. The reduction in successful attacks no
large merchant vessel has been hijacked since
May 2012 can be attributed to three external
factors: a better educated maritime industry, a
more robust naval strategy and a better protected
merchant fleet.
Yet despite these notable gains, a re-emergence
of activity remains a risk. With the exception of a
handful of high-profile arrests, Somalias pirate
networks remain largely intact. A weak central
government, an absence of local security provision
in key coastal communities, and a proliferation of
materiel and experienced personnel from four

Horn of Africa: Reported incidents of piracy and armed robbery at sea, 2007-2014
350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

MARITIME RISK FORECAST: 2015

11

years of successful activities mean that most

groups remain operational, albeit currently focused
on other financial pursuits. Although the actions of
the international community may have temporarily
curbed the intent of pirate groups, they have not
dented their capability.
Despite widespread acknowledgement from
stakeholders in the counter-piracy community that
the recent gains are reversible, efforts are already
mounting to dismantle the security measures that
have proven so effective in combating the crime.
Cost-squeezed operators are seeking to dispense
with expensive guards, hardening measures and
re-routing.
Meanwhile,
politicians
ponder
redeploying naval assets elsewhere. The coming
year may see the risk-reward ratio swing back in the
favour of Somali pirate groups.

There were two significant developments in

maritime security provision in 2014 first, the
publication of an update to the Gulf of Guinea
Best
Management
Practices
addendum,
providing region specific guidance to vessel
operators and secondly the launch of the
Maritime Trade Information Sharing Centre
(MTISC) in Ghana, aiming to boost awareness
and improve reporting in West Africa. These
advances highlight how the maritime community
is coming to terms with the threat off West Africa,
and the impact is being seen offshore. Evasive
manoeuvres
and
vessel
self-protection

measures, such as razor wire, fire hoses and

citadels were used effectively in a number of
attacks in 2014, contributing to a shift in targeting
by pirate groups back to oil and gas support
vessels off the Niger delta.
Many observers have identified the February
2015 general elections as a likely driving force for
offshore instability. However, while elections
often trigger clashes between rival political
groups, such violence is more likely to be
concentrated on land and ransoms from offshore
kidnaps are unlikely to play a significant part in

Gulf of Guinea: Breakdown of reported incidents by type and location, 2014

50
45

40

Nigeria elections to shape future

maritime threats in Gulf of Guinea
On the other side of the continent, pirate activity
remained stable in 2014, following a sharp rise in
attacks in 2013. Control Risks recorded a 12% drop
in overall activity in the Gulf of Guinea in 2014, with
85% of incidents recorded off Nigeria. Despite this,
kidnapping levels off the Niger delta region
remained stubbornly high, having increased
significantly in 2013. By contrast, the number of
incidents of hijacking-for-cargo theft involving
product tankers continued to decline, despite such
groups increasing their operational range to include
Ghanaian and Angolan waters.

12

MARITIME RISK FORECAST: 2015

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Activism

Approach

Assault

Attempt

Hijack

Kidnap

Robbery

TOGO

SAO TOME

GABON

COTE DIVOIRE

NIGERIA

GHANA

EQUATORIAL GUINEA

CAMEROON

Theft

political campaign financing in light of the

countrys ample oil revenues. Of greater
importance is the legacy of the elections, namely
the future of the 2009 amnesty programme for
Niger delta militants. A victory for incumbent
President Goodluck Jonathan is likely to see
support for the programme maintained in one
form or another, while an opposition victory
could see the end of local buy-in and, ultimately,
the re-emergence of militant activity.
INTENT OF TERRORIST GROUPS REMAINS HIGH
With the focus on Somalia- and Nigeria-based
pirate groups, it is easy to overlook the issue of

terrorism. Although attacks on the maritime

sector by terrorist groups have been rare off
Africa, the increasing ambitions of groups based
in Kenya and southern Somalia could mean the
shipping or offshore oil and gas sectors find
themselves viable targets. A local cell likely
affiliated with Nigerian Islamist extremist group
Boko Haram in July 2014 attempted to attack a
fuel depot in the Lagos port district. Meanwhile,
Kenyan police in the same month claimed they
had prevented an attack on the Likoni ferry, which
crosses the entrance to the port of Mombasa.
Although a maritime spectacular is unlikely in
2015, an attack on a port facility remains a very
real possibility.

Ebola to drive further disruption to

shipping in 2015
Looking beyond security risks, the greatest
disruption to shipping in the West Africa region in
2014 was caused not by piracy or terrorism, but by
the Ebola outbreak. Although no specific ban was
imposed on maritime travel to the affected countries,
Ebola clauses have increasingly been added to
contracts, requiring ships to carry protective
equipment and allowing vessels to seek alternative
ports if the planned destination is deemed unsafe.
Vessels calling at ports in the affected countries
have faced subsequent delays in quarantine,
enforced health inspections and even refusal of
entry at their next ports of call.

Gulf of Guinea: Breakdown of incidents by vessel type, 2014

UNKNOWN

CARGO

6%

7.8%
LOCAL

19.8%

TANKER

26.7%

116

INCIDENTS

Oil and gas operations have also experienced

logistical delays, with crew changes becoming
increasingly complex. Some new offshore projects
have even been put on hold. Meanwhile the
outbreak has exacerbated other operational risks,
such as stowaways. Any significant expansion of
the outbreak to new countries in 2015 would be
likely to swiftly usher in further disruption, extensive
port restrictions and operational difficulties for
vessels wishing to call at them.

MILITARY
OILFIELD

31.9%

7.8%

MARITIME RISK FORECAST: 2015

13

Europe and the Arctic

Onika Adeneye

With its extensive maritime history, Europe boasts

some of the worlds most well-established ports
and maritime infrastructure. It is the destination
for some of the worlds key maritime trade routes,
as well as hosting the headquarters of some of
the worlds largest shipping companies. The
regions relatively benign onshore security
environment has, for the most part, been reflected
offshore, with maritime piracy and armed robbery
at sea very much a thing of the past. Despite this,
events over the last year have highlighted the
changing nature of maritime risk in the region,
with activism and geopolitical disputes some of
the major issues set to affect operators in the
year ahead.
Maritime crime in Europe generally takes the
form of opportunistic low-level theft, with
the majority of cases involving leisure vessels in local
marinas. Control Risks recorded seven such
incidents in 2014. More serious incidents
such as armed robbery and hijacking are extremely
rare, with criminal groups significantly more adept at
using the maritime domain to transport contraband
items rather than to conduct armed attacks.
Direct action to increase in parallel
to Arctic exploration
Activism will continue to affect maritime operators
over the coming year, particularly those engaged
in offshore oil and gas exploration. In the last two
years, Control Risks has recorded 13 incidents of
maritime direct action in Europe and the Arctic,

the majority of which were carried out by

environmental and conservation groups. Groups
have the capability to operate in a diverse range of
maritime environments, including the Arctic, and
have successfully targeted drill ships, drill
platforms and other vessels in the past year.
Operators with vessels or platforms deploying
from Western European ports will remain most
exposed to such groups, which are employing
increasingly bold tactics despite forceful responses
from regional naval forces. Tactics have included
attempts to board and occupy maritime assets;
harassment of vessels servicing oil and gas
operations; and, more recently, attempts to use
social media to highlight poor health and safety
standards on board offshore platforms, generating
negative reputational fallout.
FROZEN CONFLICT IN UKRAINE CONTINUES
TO BREED UNCERTAINTY
Events in Ukraine in 2014 served to demonstrate
the delicate relationship between onshore and
offshore dynamics. The deterioration in Ukraines
onshore security environment, coupled with the
implementation of Western-backed sanctions
directed at Russia, has had a detrimental effect on
the maritime sector. Port operations in the Black
Sea region have been affected and cargo shipments
disrupted while a power vacuum in Crimea has
reportedly bolstered transnational criminal networks
by opening new ports such as Sevastopol to illicit
smuggling operations.

MARITIME RISK FORECAST: 2015

15

Northern Europe and the Arctic: Location of incidents of maritime activism, 2014

Exploration contracts in Europe and the Arctic

have also been affected. Over the last year,
exploration projects in the Russian Arctic have
been halted or postponed because of sanctions
banning Western companies from providing
high-tech oil equipment to Russia and supporting
offshore exploration and production activities,
including shale and deep-water projects. With no
signs of an end to the conflict in the short term,
operators will need to stay abreast of further
deteriorations in the Ukrainian security environment,
particularly around ports and anchorages.
An end to hostilities remains unlikely in the short
term. Ukraine is entering a frozen conflict phase, in
which maritime operators can expect fewer direct
security threats to their assets but ongoing
operational uncertainty. The weakness of the
ceasefire agreement became evident in the first few
weeks of 2015 and there has been very little
movement towards a negotiated settlement.
Meanwhile, Western sanctions are expected to
remain in place until at least the third quarter of
2015. The broader diplomatic relationship between
the West and Russia, which was seriously damaged
in 2014 by events in Ukraine, will therefore remain a
wider trend affecting maritime risks in 2015.

ICELAND

NORWAY

UNITED
KINGDOM

OIL PRICES AND ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS DENT ARCTIC APPETITE

KEY

NETHERLANDS

Activist incidents in 2014

BELGIUM

16

MARITIME RISK FORECAST: 2015

BOSNIA AND
HERZEGOVINA SERBIA
ITALY

MONTENEGRO

BULGARIA

The Arctic continues to see interest from nation

states and oil and gas companies alike. The
circumpolar states are stepping up their efforts to

establish ownership of the Arctic, with countries

such as Denmark submitting official claims to the
UN for an extended continental shelf in December
2014 and Russia expected to follow suit by March
2015. Formal boundary delineations are unlikely to
be concluded in 2015, but infrastructure
investments are in place. Areas that currently lie
within undisputed territory continue to be
developed, and as seen with the dip in vessel traffic
in the last year, the volume of shipping transits
through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) will remain
dependent upon ice conditions.

expected to be ratified by 1 January 2017.

However, the code does not satisfy environmental
groups, which continue to emphasise the

environmental impact of commercial shipping

operations in the Arctic.

However, plummeting oil prices and uncertainty

among governments, conservation groups and
even offshore operators regarding the safety of
current equipment and ultimate profitability of
offshore drilling operations in the High North have
delayed exploration activities in the Canadian,
Norwegian and US Arctic. A number of accidents,
including the grounding of a drilling rig off the coast
of Alaska in late 2012, and the damaging of a
Russian tanker struck by an ice floe in the Matisen
Strait in September 2013, have drawn attention to
the regions limited search-and-rescue provision,
raising questions as to whether the region is ready
for commercial shipping.
The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has
made some headway, securing approval for
amendments for a soon-to-be-mandatory Polar
Code, an agreed framework aimed at mitigating
environmental catastrophes and to promote safety
for vessels operating in Polar regions, which is

MARITIME RISK FORECAST: 2015

17

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

Despite notable historical precedents, the Middle Onshore instability the primary
East and North Africa has not been a piracy hotspot catalyst for offshore threats
for a number of years. However, the regions
the main underlying
MOLDOVA
geostrategic significance
means that it remains Political instability has been
KAZAKHSTAN
central to the continuity of global maritime driver of offshore insecurity throughout the region
CROATIA
ROMANIA
operations.
Its waterways support the export of in the wake of the Arab spring. Regime changes,
SERBIA
BOSNIA AND
large
volumes
of oil and gas, and harbour the in addition to ethnic, ideological and territorial
HERZEGOVINA
MONTENEGRO
KOSOVO chokepoints
strategic
of the Red Sea and GEORGIA
Suez clashes, have resulted in security threats to
BULGARIA
ALBANIA
MACEDONIA
shipping and oil andUZBEKISTAN
gas operations. In Egypt,
Canal,
which act as conduits for maritime trade fromAZERBAIJAN
KYRGYZSTAN
ARMENIA
commercial vessels have been targeted in rocket
east to west.

tom patterson

GREECE

Nakhchivan
(AZERBAIJAN)

T U R K E Y

TAJIKISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

Middle East and North Africa: Maritime terrorism incident locations, 2014
MALTA

CYPRUS

SYRIA

Kashmir

LEBANON

TUNISIA

AFGHANISTAN

ISRAEL

IRAQ

PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES

I R A N

JORDAN

KUWAIT

ALGERIA
LIBYA

BAHRAIN
EGYPT

QATAR
SAUDI
ARABIA

NIGER
SUDAN

GHANA

OMAN

I N D I A

KEY
DJIBOUTI

BENIN

UAE

YEMEN

ERITREA
CHAD

NEP

PAKISTAN

NIGERIA

Maritime terrorism incidents in 2014

Somaliland

TOGO

CAMEROON

CENTRAL AFRICAN
REPUBLIC

SOUTH
SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

SRI LANKA

MARITIME RISK FORECAST: 2015

SOMALIA
UGANDA
CONGO
CONGO
(DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF)

KENYA

19

MALDIVES

attacks while transiting the Suez Canal.

Meanwhile, vessels calling at Libyan ports have
sustained collateral damage in the ongoing
conflict there.
Although security forces in both countries have
been quick to shore up security around critical
assets, and incidents have remained fairly low-level
in nature, they demonstrate the potential operational

risks in waters adjacent to countries going through

periods of violent transition. And while political
instability does not always manifest in direct security
threats offshore, it is costly for operators, which
face the prospect of re-routing, crew mobilisation,
and delays to cargo handling and trans-shipment.
Developments in Egypt and Libya are likely to
continue to shape the threat faced by maritime
operators in the year ahead.

MAJOR INCIDENTS OFF LIBYA IN 2014

5 AUGUST 2014

21 NOVEMBER 2014

A bulk carrier, the Iron Baron V,

came under fire while in Derna outer
anchorage. The vessel was reportedly
fired upon by a fighter aircraft.

Libyan protesters reportedly seized a

Qatar-flagged tanker anchored in Marsa el
Brega port. The individuals were protesting
against the state of Qatars policies towards Libya.

Following increased fighting, reports emerged

that an unspecified vessel was struck by
projectiles in Benghazi port. The port was
closed for at least a day following the incident.

Assailants launched a rocket attack on

Es Sider and Ras Lanuf terminals, setting
fire to an oil tank before exchanging fire
with pro-government forces.

3 NOVEMBER 2014

25 DECEMBER 2014

Deepening insecurity in Syria and Iraq

has had limited impact offshore
By contrast, although countries elsewhere in the
region are also experiencing violent conflict
onshore, this has had a limited impact on maritime
security. Five years into the civil war in Syria, vessels
calling at the ports of Tartous and Latakia have not
faced a greater exposure to security risks, as was
initially feared. Indeed, a sharp decline in tanker, dry
bulk and general cargo traffic calling at those ports
has been driven largely by practical and commercial
considerations a decline in production and the
advent of sanctions rather than an uptick in
incidents involving vessels and crews.
Similarly, the continued conflict between the
government and Sunni extremist group Islamic
State (IS) in Iraq has had a limited impact on both
shipping and offshore oil and gas operations
because the epicentre of the fighting is so far from
the countrys key ports in the Shia-dominated
south. Iraqs offshore environment will remain
relatively insulated from the fighting in the short
term. However, Sunni militants retain the intent to
mount attacks in southern Iraq and may look to do
so in 2015.
Maritime terrorism an enduring
threat but capability of regional
groups remains unproven
Yemen was the scene of two of the most high-profile
maritime terrorist attacks in recent history on the

20

MARITIME RISK FORECAST: 2015

USS Cole (2000) and MT Limburg (2002) and

remains the most likely source of future attacks in the
region. Although the capability of Islamist extremist
groups to mount complex offshore assaults is routinely
overstated, the intent undoubtedly remains, evidenced
by al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)s
continuing campaign targeting the Balhaf Liquefied
Natural Gas (LNG) terminal. The Suez Canal, Red
Sea, Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz
continue to provide attractive targets.
A relative improvement in relations between the West
and Iran in 2014 was accompanied by fewer
instances of harassment of commercial vessels by
the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy
(IRGCN), but the operating environment in the Gulf of
Oman will remain opaque in the year ahead. A high
concentration of small boat activity, with traders,
smugglers, fishermen, and state and non-state
actors, complicates the threat picture. In recent
years, much suspicious activity in the area has
been erroneously attributed to Somali pirate groups.
Vessels transiting the Gulf nevertheless still face a
variety of unconventional operational risks resulting
from inter-state rivalries, transnational crime, and the
local pattern of life in the area.
SPILLOVER effect of regional conflict
resulting in heightened stowaway and
smuggling risk
Continuing political and social upheaval throughout
the Middle East and North Africa is also likely to
trigger greater risks for maritime operators

elsewhere in the year ahead. Conflicts throughout

the region have led to an increase in attempts by
migrants to escape by sea, resulting in a heightened
risk of stowaway activity in North African and Middle
Eastern ports and, in particular, a dramatic uptick in
the number of migrant vessels departing the North
African coast bound for Europe.
The issue gained increased attention in 2014 amid
several high-profile accidents involving vessels
carrying migrants in the Mediterranean. According
to the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS),
more than 600 commercial vessels were involved in
the rescue of migrants at sea in 2014 alone, in what
the International Organisation for Migration (IOM)
described as the worlds largest wave of mass
migration since the end of the Second World War.
Under the terms of the International Convention for
the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) and the United
Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
(UNCLOS), all Masters are required to provide
assistance to vessels in distress.

The scaling down of humanitarian naval operations

by key regional states will exacerbate the impact of
a rise in the number of migrants taking to sea in the
next 12 months. The reduction in patrolling by
warships, which is aimed to discourage would-be
migrants, will have the knock-on effect of increasing
the burden on the commercial maritime community.
It will also increase the risk to migrants themselves,
as smuggling groups employ more ruthless tactics
to transport large numbers to Europe.

Migrant vessels pose an obvious collision risk to

vessels plying busy trade routes across the
Mediterranean, and the rendering of assistance has
in some cases created significant complications for
Masters and crew. The addition of a large number
of individuals on-board commercial vessels can put
a strain on basic provisions and health and safety
procedures, while additionally delaying onward
transits while the Master and crew liaise with the
relevant authorities to determine the ultimate
destination of those on board.

MARITIME RISK FORECAST: 2015

21

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MARITIME RISK FORECAST: 2015

piracy
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