Thayer Vietnam President Obama's Visit To Vietnam Scene Setter

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Vietnam: President Obamas

Visit - 14
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 15, 2016
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Q1President Obama's visit to Vietnam would be the first by a US president since
George W. Bush zipped through in 2006. From your perspective, how have USVietnam relations evolved in that period? What kind of country will Obama find
compared to the one Bush encountered?
ANSWER: US-Vietnam relations entered a decidedly new phase under the Obama
Administration. During Obama first term the United States confronted China
diplomatically about Chias pressure on U.S. oil companies operating in Vietnam. This
led to the clause unimpeded lawful commerce being added to standard
statements on the South China Sea. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared in
mid-2010 that the U.S. had a national interest in the South China Sea dispute and
offered to facilitate a diplomatic solution.
During President Obamas second term, in July 2013, he received Vietnams
President Truong Tan San at The White House. The two leaders adopted an
Agreement on Comprehensive Partnership. In October 2014 Secretary of State John
Kerry announced the partial lifting of the U.S. arms embargo on Vietnam permitting
the sale of lethal weapons on a case by case basis.
In June 2015 a Joint Vision Statement setting out defense cooperation was issued by
Vietnams Minister of National Defense General Phung Quang Thanh and Secretary
of Defense Ashton Carter. In July 2015 President Obama received the Secretary
General of the Vietnam Communist Party in the Oval Office and both agreed to
respect each others political system. And to cap off these developments President
Obama will visit Vietnam in May meeting his pledge to President Sang to do his
level best to visit Vietnam before the end of his term in office.
Q2--Do you agree or disagree with the suggestion that relations between Hanoi and
Washington are closer than ever because of TPP [Trans Pacific Parntership]? We are
also struck by the level of immigration and travel between the two countries, with
some 17,000 Vietnamese said to be studying in the US.
ANSWER: The TPP has been the most successful mechanism in the bilateral
engagement between Vietnam and the United States. Vietnam has a massive trade
deficit with China and needs access to the U.S. (Japanese and European) markets to
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balance its dependency. Vietnam is very keen to have continued access to the U.S.
market with reduced tariffs, and also access to the other signatories to the TPP. In
addition, the 2013 Agreement of Comprehensive Partnership has resulted in
increased educational exchanges and the agreement to open the Fulbright University
in Vietnam.
Q3--Obviously the tension over competing claims in the South China Sea is another
matter of concern in the US pivot to Asia." How do you assess the impact of this
issue on relations between US, Vietnam, China and other countries? What is your
expectation looking ahead? Will Vietnam be buying arms from the US?
ANSWER: Quite clearly the South China Sea dispute has seen a marked convergence
of interests between Vietnam and the United States. Both are on record as opposing
the threat or use of force to settle territorial disputes. Both support the peaceful
resolution of disputes under international law including the UN Convention on the
Law of the Sea. Vietnam has voiced it support for U.S. freedom of navigation.
Vietnam has also noted that outside powers also have an interest in the security of
the South China Sea. The South China Sea issue has drawn Vietnam and the US
closer, especially after the May-July HD 981 crisis. This crisis eroded strategic trust
between Hanoi and Beijing. Beijing moved to repair relations with Vietnam in order
to prevent Vietnam from exiting Chinas orbit and taking legal action against China.
At present both sides China and Vietnam - have compartmentalized the South
China Sea to prevent it from further harming bilateral relations. But Vietnam has
major concerns about the intentions behind Chinas construction of artificial islands.
All hell is likely to break loose when the Arbitral Tribunal makes its determination.
China will reject the finding of the Tribunal and behave badly. Vietnam and the
United States will make common cause on this issue along with other stakeholders.
Vietnam wants all arms sales restrictions by the U.S. lifted. This is mainly to end what
Hanoi views as discrimination and a throwback to the past. Vietnam is unlikely to
request to purchase big ticket defense weaponry and platforms. Vietnam will seek to
acquire technology related to communications, intelligence, surveillance,
reconnaissance and maritime domain awareness. Both sides committed themselves
to developing defense trade and cooperating in defense technology looking toward
future co-production.
Q4--Vietnam is still known as a repressive, authoritarian state that treats dissidents
harshly and, now, is facing suggestions that it is complicit in the environmental
disaster along Ha Tinh province. But some people also say there the government is
not as oppressive and more responsive than in the past. Your assessment?
ANSWER: On the eve of the 12th national party congress public security officials
stated publicly that they would arrest and punish bloggers who criticized the
reputation of Vietnams leaders. They were good at their word. After the party
congress several bloggers who had been arrested previously were quickly tried and
imprisoned. Other bloggers were arrested. The impending visit by President Obama
has put a break on further repression. Vietnam has come under intense U.S. pressure
to improve its human rights record and to bring domestic legislation in line with
Vietnams international commitments. Vietnam agreed to independent trade unions
as part of its agreement to sign the TPP. There has been progress in registering
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religious groups.. Nonetheless, the bottom line is that Vietnam will continue to
repress political activists who promote democracy and criticize Vietnams one party
state.
The environmental disaster resulting in dead fish has become a major social media
issue and has been taken up in public protests that have demanded transparency
from the government. This is the biggest protest since the outrage over bauxite
mining several years ago. Vietnamese security authorities came down hard on public
protests. This issue will not go away and is a major challenge to the authority of the
old guard who were retained as leaders at the 12th national party congress.
Q5--Social change is another angle. It's noteworthy, certainly, that Obama will no
doubt be meeting with Ted Osius and his husband, Clayton Bond, who have advance
the gay rights agenda in Vietnam with some apparent success. What is your
assessment of this development?
ANSWER: Vietnam has made remarkable progress in changing legislation towards
LGBT [Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender] persons for the better. This has
resulted from social pressure from below as well as Ambassador Osius status as a
gay person. This is one of the plus factors in weighing the status of human rights in
Vietnam.
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Visit - 13
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 14, 2016
Q1. Firstly, according to your assessment, what can we expect from President
Obamas trip to Vietnam? Does it have any special meaning when the US President is
scheduled to arrive in Vietnam on the occasion of general elections for the National
Assembly?
ANSWER: Obama made history by normalizing diplomatic relations with Cuba. USVietnam relations are more advanced but there are two issues that are a legacy of
the past Agent Orange and the arms embargo.PresidentObama will address these
issues with a view to setting out the opportunities of future cooperation.
The timing of President Obamas trip was decided on the basis of mutual
convenience. Obama is attending the G7 meeting in Tokyo. Vietnam gets to
showcase its electoral system through the selection of deputies to the next National
Assembly.
Q2. Secondly, what does it mean for the U.S.-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership?
Will the US and Vietnam improve their cooperation across a range of areas, including
economic, people-to-people, security, human rights, and global and regional issues?
ANSWER: President Obama will want to advance the comprehensive partnership
now that it is nearly three years old. There are nine major areas of cooperation and
these areas will be reviewed and new initiatives announced. Two important issues
relate to economic and commercial relations (TPP) and maritime security. But there
is considerable scope for enhancing cooperation in education, science and
technology, young leaders from both countries, and addressing the legacy of war
(Agent Orange and unexploded ordnance).
Increasingly Vietnam and the United States share a convergence of views on regional
and global issues. The US views Vietnam as a constructive member of the
international community. Obama will offer continued support to Vietnam to mitigate
the impact of climate change and for a step up in Vietnams commitment to
international peacekeeping under the UN. Obama will also offer continued US legal
assistance to address human rights under Vietnams Constitution and its
international legal obligations.
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Q3. Thirdly, do you think that there is any possibility that US may lift the ban on arms
sales to Vietnam after this trip? And how can Hanoi get a chance to buy high-tech
American military hardware such as sophisticated radar or surveillance aircraft?
Q. ANSWER: President Obama does not shirk from making decisive decisions. I think
he will announce something positive about the arms sales ban. It was imposed in the
mid-1980s automatically on any country under a US embargo. The US has lifted its
embargo long ago. Although the lifting of the embargo has become linked with
human rights, it is clear that Vietnam has made progress in many areas.
When Secretary of State John Kerry announced the partial lifting on the sale of lethal
weapons to Vietnam the ball was put in Vietnams court. Vietnam has yet to
respond, perhaps waiting for the complete lifting of arms sales. Even if the embargo
were lifted completely Vietnam would still have to meet other US legal requirements
to purchase lethal weaponry. I think the future lies in the development of defence
trade and defence technology transfers over a period of time leading to coproduction. It is clear that Vietnam will be allowed to purchase sophisticated radar
and maritime surveillance aircraft if it can afford the price.
Q4. Finally, will the forthcoming trip of President Obama have an impact on the
South China Sea situation? Can Vietnam and the US make a joint announcement
about this issue? Against the backdrop of newly elected President of the Philippines
and the coming general election in Vietnam, what is your assessment about the
South China Sea issue in the near future?
ANSWER: President Obama and Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc will undoubtedly
issue a statement on the South China Sea. Both will support the decision of the
Arbitral Tribunal and call for the peaceful resolution of disputes under international
law including the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The leaders may
also express their concern over recent Chinese activities but without naming China.
Both leaders will recognize that there are many stakeholders with interests in the
South China Sea and these stakeholders should be included to help resolve maritime
tensions.
The new Philippine president will not take office until late June. China is trying to
seize on this development to engage the Philippines in discussions, offering
economic inducements for a low key South China Sea policy. China hopes to reduce
US influence on Manila due to this change in leadership. However, China is already
conducting an intense propaganda campaign to discredit the Arbitral Tribunals
authority and legitimacy. China is likely stir up a political and diplomatic fuss once
the Arbitral Tribunal gives its decision. Chinas actions will increase tensions as
UNCLOS is regarded as the constitution for the worlds oceans. The international
community will have to react to uphold international law.

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Visit - 12
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 15, 2016
Q1. What's the significance of President Obama's visit to Vietnam?
ANSWER: President Obama's visit to Vietnam is in protocol terms a reciprocation of
the visit of Vietnam's President Truong Tan Sang to Washington in 2013. More
importantly, it is the virtual capstone on Obama's policy of rebalancing towards the
Asia-Pacific in two respects. First, Vietnam was brought on board and signed the TPP.
Its National Assembly will likely ratify the TPP at its sitting in June. The TPP is vital for
Vietnam to reduce its dependency on China with whom Vietnam has a massive trade
deficit. Secondly, defence and security ties between the U.S. and Vietnam have
grown as a result of a convergence of interests on territorial disputes in the South
China Sea. The U.S. is providing assistance to build up the capacity of Vietnam's
maritime law enforcement agencies, the Coast Guard and the Vietnam Fishery
Surveillance Force.
Q2. Will President Obama present the Vietnam Communist Party with a gift? That is
do you expect the US to drop the arms embargo?
ANSWER: More fundamentally, President Obama is looking towards the future and
his legacy. His deal with Iran over nuclear weapons and his normalization of relations
with Cuba are precursors to the further advancement of bilateral relations with
Vietnam under the nine-article Agreement on Comprehensive Partnership signed in
2013. I am inclined to say that President Obama is likely to lift the embargo. U.S.
policy clearly links the lifting of the arms embargo with progress on human rights.
But the Obama Administration is also emphasizing the importance of domestic law
and bringing it into line with Vietnam's international human rights obligations. If the
arms embargo is not lifted, there will be progress on implementing the 2015 Joint
Vision Statement agreed to by Defense Secretary Carter and his Vietnamese
counterpart General Phung Quang Thanh. One paragraph mentioned future defense
trade and cooperation leading to co-production in defense technology.
Q3. What does Vietnam want from the US - TPP, a lifting of the arms embargo,
support in the South China Sea?
ANSWER: Vietnam wants the total removal of all restrictions on arms sales under the
International Trafficking in Arms Regulations. One motivation is to end
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discrimination that is a legacy of history. Vietnam also wants continued if not
stepped up U.S. assistance in dealing with Vietnam-era unexploded ordnance and
the consequences of Agent Orange. Looking into the future Vietnam would like U.S.
assistance for Vietnam's commitment to international peacekeeping under the
United Nations.
Vietnam seeks U.S. reassurance that it will balance China's military in the South
China Sea. Vietnam will also seek continued U.S. support for the peaceful settlement
of the South China Sea dispute on the basis of international law, including the UN
Convention on the Law of the Sea. Vietnam is already committed to the TPP but the
ball is in the U.S. court, without Senate ratification there will be no TPP.
Q4. Is the Vietnam Communist Party still divided among those aligned with China
and some with the US?
ANSWER: In my view, there is no one in Vietnam who is pro-China. There is a division
of opinion on how to handle relations with China and the United States without
incurring serious costs on Vietnam. As a result of internal party deliberations,
Vietnam's leaders will be more vocal and critical of Chinese actions that go against
Vietnam's interests in the South China Sea. Vietnam still needs reassurance from the
United States that it will uphold the provisiosn of the Agreement on Comprehensive
Partnership to respect each other's political systems. Conservatives who are leery
about moving too close to the U.S. advance three arguments: (1) the U.S. seeks to
overthrow Vietnam's one party system by "peaceful evolution," (2) the U.S. is not
doing enough to address the "wounds of war" (Agent Orange and unexploded
ordnance) and (3) the U.S. discriminates against Vietnam through its arms embargo.
President Obama's visit will be aimed at disarming these critics on all three counts.

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Visit - 11
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 16, 2016
Q1. President Obama, who is in his final year of his presidential term, will meet the
newly elected leaders of Vietnam. What are the expectations that the two sides
hope to achieve on this visit?
ANSWER: Both Vietnam and the United States want to build on the Agreement on
Comprehensive Partnership reached between presidents Truong Tan San and Barack
Obama in 2013. Vietnams commitment to the TPP is a crucial part of the bilateral
relationship. President Obama will offer U.S. support to Vietnam in meetings its
obligations under the TPP. Vietnams leaders would like some reassurance that the
U.S. Congress will pass the TPP in the next year.
Both sides will want to lay the foundation for an enhanced comprehensive
partnership as new leaders are elected and take office in Vietnam in June and in the
United States in January 2017.
Q1b.Does Obamas lame-duck status make his visit to Vietnam at this time less
important?
ANSWER: President Obama has taken major initiatives to improve U.S. relations with
Iran and Cuba. The fact that he is a lame duck president does not alter the fact that
the government of Vietnam and the United States have agreed to a comprehensive
partnership. Obama can make commitments to address the legacies of the past, such
as dioxin poisoning and dealing with unexploded ordnance, and advance bilateral
relations in all the nine areas identified in the agreement of comprehensive
partnership, including political and diplomatic relations, trade and economic ties,
science and technology, education and training, environment and health, war legacy
issues, defense and security, protection and promotion of human rights, and culture,
sports, and tourism.
Q2. How important is the role of Vietnam in the US's pivot policy? In your
assessment, will the relationship with Vietnam specifically and with ASEAN in general
continue to be strengthened after the new Administration takes office in the US?
ANSWER: Vietnam was an important part of Obamas rebalance strategy because of
Vietnams growing role in regional affairs in general and ASEAN specifically, and
because of convergence of views between the two on maritime disputes in the
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South China Sea. The foundations of this relationship have been laid, they are firm
and they hold much potential. An Administration led by Hillary Clinton would provide
continuity in the relationship. It is unclear what policies would be followed by an
Administration under Donald Trump. It should be remembered that the U.S. political
system is one of checks and balances and the Senate plays a major role in foreign
policy.
Q3. Will President Obama make the decision to completely lift the arms embargo on
Vietnam at this time? If not, what will be the most ideal time to announce this?
ANSWER: U.S. Administration officials are playing this issue close to their chests. I am
inclined to the view that just as President Obama has undertaken major steps to
improve relations with Iran and Cuba, he will do so with Vietnam where the bilateral
relationship is much more advanced. U.S. officials say arms sales restrictions are
under periodic review. If President Obama does not lift ITAR (International
Trafficking in Arms Regulations) restrictions, this policy will be reviewed by the new
Administration during its first one hundred days in office.
Q3b. If the arms embargo is lifted in full, in your assessment, what types of arms
(ships or fighter jets, etc.) is the Vietnamese government most interested in, and
likely to make place orders with the US?
ANSWER: According to my understanding, Vietnam has not submitted a request for
the purchase of arms after the partial lifting of the sale of lethal weapons on a case
by case basis was announced in 2014. This has raised some concern in U.S. defense
industry circles. In my view, Vietnam is unlikely to request big ticket items such as
warships and military aircraft. These are too expensive and Vietnam can meet its
needs by buying from Russia or even South Korea or Europe. One indication of what
Vietnam might purchase may be found in the Joint Vision Statement released by
National Defense Minister General Phung Quang Thanh and Defense Secretary
Ashton Carter in 2015. Both sides flagged future defense trade and cooperation in
defense technology with a view towards co-production. This seems to indicate
Vietnam is interested in defense technology that would improve its capacity to
network its various defense systems, such as communications, intelligence,
surveillance, reconnaissance and maritime domain awareness.
Q4. In order to strengthen the bilateral relationship, what are the strategic fields
that Vietnam and the US most need to develop mutual trust?
ANSWER: From the Vietnamese point of view, the United States needs to continue if
not step up its efforts to overcome the legacies of the Vietnam War including dioxin
poisoning and unexploded ordnance; and from the U.S. point of view Vietnam
should continue to assist in a full accounting of U.S. servicemen missing in action.
These issues are being addressed by both sides and there is a fair degree of mutual
trust in these activities.
Vietnam and the United States already have in place a number of relatively highlevel mechanisms to consult on strategic issues, especially in the areas of global
issues and defence and security. The U.S. and Vietnam already cooperate in dealing
with the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, counter-terrorism,
transnational security issues, climate change, infectious diseases, humanitarian
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assistance and disaster relief, search and rescue, and international peacekeeping
under the United Nations.
Both sides need to go beyond dialogue to closer co-ordination of policies in
multilateral institutions such as the UN, APEC, East Asia Summit and ASEAN-related
multilateral institutions including the ADMM Plus and the Expanded ASEAN Maritime
Forum.
Q5. What is your assessment about military cooperation between Vietnam and the
US up to now? Will the two sides announce any new plans for military cooperation?
ANSWER: Military-to-military cooperation between Vietnam and the United States
has developed at a gradual and measured pace. It is clear this is a sensitive area for
Vietnam. The two sides should build strategic trust by expanding military-to-military
cooperation to include counter-terrorism exercises by their Special Forces, and
expanding practical training exercises to address maritime security issues. Both sides
might consider joint maritime air patrols to build capacity and confidence. Vietnam
might consider undertaking a goodwill port visit to Guam.
Q6. The visit of President Obama takes place in the context that the Permanent
Court of Arbitration (PCA) is expected to issue its final ruling about the Philippines
case. At the same time China has been increasing its assertive and militarizing
actions in the South China Sea.How will President Obama deal with South China Sea
issues on his trip to Asia?
ANSWER: Both President Obama and President Tran Dai Quang will reach agreement
that the decisions of the PCA Arbitral Tribunal should be carried out. They will repeat
their past agreement that territorial disputes should not be settled by force or the
threat of force but through peaceful means including international law particularly
UNCLOS. Both will express serious concern over recent developments in the South
China Sea but are unlikely to mention China directly by name.

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Visit - 10
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 16, 2016
Would you be able to comment briefly on what the Vietnam and the United States
might discuss during President Obamas visit? It is our understanding they may touch
on the South China Sea issue, human rights, TPP and a lifting of the US-Vietnam arms
ban. How much momentum do you expect on each discussion item?
ANSWER: President Obamas visit to Vietnam is aimed at reinforcing his signature
policy of rebalancing towards Asia and the Pacific. During his term in office relations
with Vietnam have been taken to a higher level with agreement on a comprehensive
partnership in 2013 and a joint vision statement on defence cooperation in 2015.
The comprehensive partnership set out nine major areas for cooperation. President
Obama will touch on all of these areas and lay out his vision for the future of
bilateral relations. Economics will dominate as Vietnam is firmly committed to the
TPP. Its National Assembly is likely to ratify the TPP after the May elections at its first
sitting in June. There has been a growing convergence of strategic interests on
maritime security in the South China Sea. It is unclear if President Obama will lift all
restrictions on the sale of arms to Vietnam because these restrictions have been
linked with progress on human rights. Recent initiatives by President Obama towards
Iran and Cuba incline me to believe he will lift the restrictions on arms sale that are a
legacy of the past. Vietnam has made mixed progress on human rights and it is likely
both sides will announce future steps to address this issue with a particular stress on
bringing Vietnams domestic legislation into line with its amended Constitution and
international obligations. It is likely that initiatives addressing educational and
academic exchanges, people-to-people links and cooperation in developing defense
trade and defence technology leading to co-production will be announced.
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Visit - 9
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 16, 2016
Q1. Could you please provide us your evaluation about President Obamas visit to
Vietnam?
ANSWER: President Obama is setting about to establish the legacy of his rebalance
and using his powers as president to overturn legacies of the past. President Obama
has undertaken unprecedented initiatives towards Iran and Cuba. Relations with
Vietnam are far more advances. President Obama will attempt to clear the deck of
legacies of the past such as Agent Orange and disposal of unexploded ordnance. As
for his policy of rebalance, President Obama will seek to demonstrate that Vietnam
is one of his success stories through the adoption of the Agreement on
Comprehensive Partnership in 2013, the Joint Vision Statement on defence
cooperation in 2015 and Vietnams agreement to sign and ratify the Trans Pacific
Partnership.
The United States recognizes that Vietnam is playing an increasingly larger and more
constructive role in ASEAN, in the region and globally. President Obama views the
bilateral relationship as contributing not only to his rebalance but to the security and
stability of Southeast Asia including the South China Sea. Therefore President Obama
will try to enlist Vietnams leaders to take further practical steps to expand their
comprehensive partnership in all the nine areas mentioned in the document.
President Obama will seek to balance domestic concerns in the United States, and in
the U.S. Congress, over Vietnams human rights record with further developing
defence and security ties to buttress regional stability and security.
Q2. Will the U.S government remove the weapons embargo on Vietnam?
ANSWER: I am inclined to conclude that President Obama will announce the lifting of
all restrictions on arms sales to Vietnam during his visit. But his assessment we be
qualified by agreements on human rights reached between Tom Malinowski,
Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Danny Russel,
Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, with their
Vietnamese counterparts. It seems to me that the human rights agenda has
expanded in scope to include domestic legislation designed to bring Vietnam into
compliance with its international obligations as well as to meet the provisions of the
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state Constitution (amended). Vietnam has a mixed record on human rights, with
some progress on registering religious groups and more tolerance for the LGBT
[Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender] community. The U.S. is also concerned
about the treatment of political activists who peacefully criticize the Vietnamese
government and party.
If recent discussions between US and Vietnamese government officials can reach the
same consensus reflected in point nine of the Agreement on Comprehensive
Partnership, then the way will be open for President Obama to lift the ban on the
sale of lethal weapons to Vietnam. This lifting of the ban does not mean that
Vietnam will purchase big ticket items such as warships and jet aircraft. But the
way will be open to promote provisions in the Joint Vision Statement on defence
cooperation issued in 2015 between National Defence Minister General Phung
Quang Thanh and Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter. These include developing
defense trade and defence technology leading to co-production.
Q3. What is your assessment of China's attitudes and activities in South China Sea in
the coming months?
ANSWER: China already is and will continue to act badly in response to the
forthcoming determination of the Arbitral Tribunal. China will create a political fuss
and refuse to comply with the Tribunals findings. This will provoke a counter
response by the international community led by the United States. ASEAN will be
divided. It has supported international law in the past but Chinese bluster will cow
several countries into either silence or inaction. There is no doubt that China will
proceed to consolidate its presence on its artificial islands and further militarize
them when the time is ripe. Chinas actions may be moderated to a certain extent by
the election of Rodrigo Duterte as the next president of the Philippines. He is open
to encouraging the development of economic relations with China. Since the Arbitral
Tribunal will not resolve all outstanding issues relating to disputes in the South China
Sea, China is likely to try to engage with Duterte. Chinas aim will be to moderate the
Philippines policy on the South China Sea and at the same time weaken defence ties
between Manila and Washington.
The period between now and January 2017, when a new U.S. president takes office
will be crucial. It will be easier for China to challenge an outgoing Obama rather than
a new U.S. president who may feel the need to stand up to China and not appear
weak.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: President Obamas Visit - 9, Thayer

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Carlyle A. Thayer
May 16, 2016
Q1. Do you think human rights have improved in Vietnam enough for the US to be
willing to lift the lethal weapons ban?
ANSWER: Vietnam has a mixed record on human rights, with progress in some areas
such as the registration of religious group and policy towards the LGBT [Lesbian Gay
Bisexual and Transgender] community. Vietnam has also ratified the Convention
against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment
and received the UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights. The National Assembly
has looked into police brutality and also has reduced the number of crimes to which
the death penalty applies. But this year Vietnam has imprisoned bloggers for the
peaceful expression of their views, and the police recently used force to deal with
protests calling for transparency in the case of the poisoned fish in central Vietnam.
Vietnam has basically met its pledges in point nine of the Agreement on
Comprehensive Partnership adopted by President Obama and President Truong Tan
Sang in 2013. The two sides are now focusing on law and human rights to strengthen
the provisions of Vietnams amended Constitution and Vietnams international
obligations as signatory to international conventions on civil, political and human
rights.
If Vietnam has agreed to make further commitments on human rights after recent
discussions with Tom Malinowski, Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy,
Human Rights, and Danny Russel, Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of East
Asian and Pacific Affairs, then the answer is yes, Vietnam has made sufficient
progress to warrant the lifting of the arms embargo. This could take the form of
Vietnams pledge to undertake certain agreed actions in the future.
Q2. Should the U.S lift the arms embargo in time for President Obama's visit to
Vietnam?
ANSWER: President Obama has shown personal initiative in opening U.S. relations
with Iran and Cuba. I am inclined to the view that he will announce the lifting of the
arms embargo when he is in Vietnam in the same spirit. U.S.-Vietnam relations are
far more advanced and the arms embargo is an irritant in the relationship arising for
past history.
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Q3. How close are US and Vietnamese national interests?
ANSWER: The United States and Vietnam identified nine areas of common interest in
their 2013 Agreement on Comprehensive Partnership - political and diplomatic
relations, trade and economic ties, science and technology, education and training,
environment and health, war legacy issues, defense and security, protection and
promotion of human rights, and culture, sports, and tourism. There is scope for
stepped up cooperation in each area to build a closer bilateral relationship.
The U.S-Vietnam have developed a growing convergence of strategic interests
related to the security and stability of the South China Sea and curbing Chinese
heavy-handed assertiveness. This convergence also extends to non-proliferation of
weapons of mass destruction, climate change, and transnational security issues such
as terrorism, counter narcotics, trafficking in persons, pandemics and infectious
diseases, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, search and rescue and, not
least, environmental issues affecting Lower Mekong states.
Q4. What is Vietnams likely response if the arms embargo is lifted?
ANSWER: The lifting of the U.S. embargo on lethal arms sales to Vietnam is not likely
to lead to big ticket purchases by Vietnam such as modern jet fighters and
warships. Rather, both sides are likely to follow through on the Joint Vision
Statement on defence cooperation issued by National Defence Minister General
Phung Quang Thanh and Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter in 2015. The two sides
will gradually develop trade in defence items and defence technology leading to
technology transfer and co-production.
Q1. Do you think the the process of choosing candidates for the National Assembly
was fair?
ANSWER: Vietnams process of selecting candidates for the National Assembly is
highly circumscribed and is not fair to all citizens who wish to register and run for
election as independent or self-nominated candidates. Quotas are established in
advance including for the number of candidates who can contest seats in multimember electorates. Vietnam still applies a test of political loyalty. The large number
of citizens who sought registration this year were denied for petty reasons.
Q2. Do you see any progress in this National Assembly election compared with
previous times?
ANSWER: The one new development was the larger number of citizens who sought
to register as independent candidates. But in all other respects the current elections
appear business as usual.
Q3. What is your explanation for the fact that there are only a few candidates who
are not party members?
ANSWER: Since the adoption of the 1992 Electoral Law Vietnams contrived system
of selection has resulted in about ten percent of the candidates being non-party
members. This is an illustration of the contrived nature of candidate selection. It is
evident that the party still has reservations about allowing larger numbers of
independents to take their seats in the National Assembly.
3
Q4. Vietnams state media highlights the years election, but the Vietnamese people
seems indifferent. Why?
ANSWER: The current election process does not permit candidates to address the
issues of concern to the average voter corruption by government and party
officials, transparency over the dead fish case, greater freedom on the internet, and
Chinese actions in the South China Sea.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: President Obamas Visit 8 and

National Assembly Elections, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 16, 2016.
All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove
yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the
Reply key.
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Visit - 7
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 16, 2016
Q1. In your assessment, what does the US expect to get from President Obamas visit
to Vietnam at this time?
ANSWER: President Obama hopes to lay a firm foundation for the development of
relations with Vietnam in the years after he steps down from office by promoting
initiatives to implement the Agreement on Comprehensive Partnership. In particular,
President Obama would like to demonstrate that his policy of rebalancing towards
the Asia-Pacific has been a success, especially with Vietnam. Obama would also like
to take the opportunity of his last months in office to clear away legacies of the past
with Vietnam as he did with Iran and Cuba. Vietnam-US relations are much further
advanced.
Q2. What does Vietnam expect from the US as a result of President Obamas visit?
ANSWER: Vietnam expects to see concrete proposals to further the Agreement of
Comprehensive Partnership, in addition to more U.S. assistance in clearing up dioxin
poisoning, disposal of unexploded ordnance left over from the Vietnam War and the
lifting of all restrictions on arms sales to Vietnam. Vietnam expects to get a
reaffirmation that the U.S. respects Vietnams political system and that the two sides
can make satisfactory progress on human rights agreeable to both. Most
importantly, Vietnam would like both assistance and reassurance from the United
State with respect to implementing the Trans Pacific Partnership.
Q3. What are potential points that you believe Vietnam and the US can on during
this visit- the removal of the ban on lethal weapons? And anything else?
ANSWER: The Vietnam-United States Agreement on Comprehensive Partnership
includes nine areas of cooperation including political and diplomatic relations, trade
and economic ties, science and technology, education and training, environment and
health, war legacy issues, defense and security, protection and promotion of human
rights, and culture, sports, and tourism. Both sides will agree to closer economic
cooperation, and educational and academic exchanges. The issues of arms sales and
human rights are interlinked in the U.S. view. Both sides will attempt to bridge the
gap on human rights so that the President can lift the ban on the sale of lethal
weapons entirely. The focus on human rights has been linked to U.S. assistance to
2
Vietnam in domestic legal reform to bring domestic laws into line with Vietnams
international commitments and in line with the amended state Constitution.
Q4. Do you think China would protest publicly over any agreements between the US
and Vietnam through this visit? Why? What will they dislike?
ANSWER: The Chinese media will be critical if President Obama lifts the ban on arms
sales. The Chinese government is likely to counter any joint statement on the South
China Sea in general and any references in particular to the Arbitral Tribunal. The
Chinese media will warn Vietnam that reliance on the United States will not promote
Vietnams security.
Q5. How will ASEAN view this visit because not all ASEAN members agree that the US
should play an important role to resolve South China Sea dispute?
ANSWER: Each member of ASEAN will have a different point of view. ASEAN
members will look for support for their long standing commitment to resolve
disputes through peaceful means and on the basis of international law, including
UNCLOS. A number of issues related to disputes in the South China Sea have been
confused. First, all parties agree that sovereignty disputes can only be settled directly
by the parties concerned. Secondly, ASEAN and its members are committed to
concluding discussions with China on the DOC [Declaration on the Conduct of Parties
in the South Chins Sea] and the expeditious conclusion of a Code of Conduct. Third,
the role of outside powers has been confused. Vietnam recognizes that some
outside powers have an interest in the stability and security of the South China Sea
including freedom of navigation. China argues against outside involvement because
it deliberately conflates disputes between littoral states with the interests of outside
powers. Fourth, the United States is not seeking a direct role in resolving the South
China Sea dispute. The U.S. seeks to ensure that might does not make right and
that force or the threatened use of force is not used to resolve disputes. The U.S.
also seeks to protect its right to freedom of navigation, overflight and unimpeded
lawful commerce.
Q6. Do you think that commitments made by President Obama and Vietnamese
leaders at this time will be implemented smoothly after January 2017 when a new
Administration takes office? Why?
ANSWER: President Obama will leave a positive legacy to guide future U.S.-Vietnam
relations. A new president whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump is unlikely to
overturn this legacy immediately she/he takes office. The new U.S. president will
face many more serious challenges. Any new Administration will take at least one
hundred days to review policy and then alter this policy to suit its priorities. Vietnam
plays a positive and constructive role in ASEAN, in regional affairs, and globally.
There is a congruence in broad strategic outlook between Vietnam and the US. A
new U.S. president must also carry the support of Congress, the U.S. Senate in
particular. This will act to constrain the new U.S. president. It is not just the actions
by a new U.S. president that could affect bilateral relations. If Vietnam were to crack
down hard on political and civil society activists this would have repercussions for
bilateral relations.
3
Q7. It seems that other allies such as Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and India have
not yet publicly done much to support the US in resolving the South China Sea
dispute and maintain stability in the region. Do you agree with this? Why?
ANSWER: Both Australia and Japan have publicly supported the U.S. right to conduct
freedom of navigation operational patrols. All three are in agreement on the
importance of international law and the non-use or threat of force to resolve
disputes. Both Japan and Australia are providing assistance to the Philippines to beef
up its capacity for maritime security. Neither Japan nor Australia have a formal
freedom of navigation program. New Zealand has been outside the ANZUS alliance
since the 1980s when it refused to grant entry to U.S. nuclear powered warships.
Although New Zealand has developed better defence ties with the United States
subsequently these have not reached the intimacy of the previous alliance relations.
India is not a U.S. ally. It seeks strategic autonomy and does not want to become
entrapped in its relations with the United States. Nonetheless India shares many of
the same values as the United States with regard to freedom of navigation and the
peaceful settlement of disputes. India also opposes Chinese hegemony and is more
concerned with developments in the Indian Ocean.
It is likely that the United States, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and India will be
brought closer together when the Arbitral Tribunal announces its final
determination. All will uphold international law and call on China to implement the
findings of the Arbitral Tribunal. It should be recalled that India and Bangladesh took
their maritime boundary dispute to international arbitration. The court found against
India and India had to relinquish several major oil exploration blocks. The first
statement by Indias Foreign Minister was to accept the courts finding and pledge to
implement it.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Visit - 6
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 16, 2016
Q1. Could you please evaluate the significance of President Obamas forthcoming
visit to Asia for Vietnam in particular and the region in general?
ANSWER: President Obamas visit to Vietnam is to demonstrate the success of his
policy of rebalancing towards the Asia-Pacific. Vietnam has been a strong supporter
of the TPP that President Obama has championed. Obamas visit to Vietnam
underscores the strong and constructive role Vietnam has played in ASEAN, in the
region and globally. President Obama would like to acknowledge this role. More
fundamentally, President Obama would like to lay a firm foundation for bilateral
relations in the future by addressing legacies of the past such as Agent Orange, the
disposal of unexploded ordnance and the arms embargo. President Obama took bold
steps initiatives with Iran and Cuba. Relations with Vietnam are more advanced.
President Obamas visit will be a demonstration of the success of Vietnams policy of
multilateralizing and diversifying its foreign policy. The two sides can be expected to
make commitments to enhance their 2013 Agreement on Comprehensive
Partnership. President Obamas visit will demonstrate that Vietnam can rely on many
friends to protect its national interests.
Southeast Asia will be reassured of the U.S. long-term commitment to the security of
East Asia.
Q2. What are the messages that President Obama wants to convey to Vietnamese
leaders and the region during his visit?
ANSWER: President Obama would like to demonstrate by deeds as well as words
that the United States is a Pacific power with vested economic and security interests
in the stability and security of Southeast Asia and the South China Sea. President
Obama will seek to demonstrate that the U.S. role in East Asian affairs remains
indispensable because the U.S. supports a rules-based international and regional
order as well as international law both of which protect small states against larger
states.
President Obama will seek to demonstrate that the U.S. and Vietnam can continue to
be partners in development despite differences in their political and social systems.
President Obama will also seek to demonstrate that there are substantial
2
convergences in interests between the U.S. and Vietnam that can be strengthened
and developed in coming years.
Q3. How will Vietnam-US relations develop after the US presidential election this
November?
ANSWER: After President Obama leaves office he will leave three major legacies with
respect to Vietnam to his successor an economic relationship based on the TPP, an
Agreement on Comprehensive Partnership with Vietnam, and a commitment to
respect each others political systems. If Hillary Clinton becomes president there will
be greater continuity in U.S. policy towards Vietnam. Clinton may soften her
opposition to the TPP. If Donald Trump becomes president, Vietnam can expect little
support for ratification of the TPP. The U.S. President is not all powerful, he/she is
constrained by the power of Congress and the Senate in particular. Trump will have
more important issues on his plate than relations with Vietnam. Vietnam can expect
more continuity than change in its bilateral relations with the new U.S.
Administration.
Q4. Does the possible full removal of ban on legal weapons against Vietnam reflect
increasing trust between the two countries after official visits of the Vietnamese
leaders to the US recently and their agreement on the TPP?
ANSWER: The removal of the ban on the sale of lethal weapons to Vietnam will
reflect two separate sets of factors. The first factor is the legacy of the past.
President Obama has used his final months in office to undertake initiatives to
improve U.S. relations with Iran and Cuba. I think he will be inclined to remove the
arms embargo with Vietnam in the same spirit. U.S.-Vietnam relations are far more
advanced than U.S. relations with Iran and Cuba. Obama would like to build on the
comprehensive partnership and set the course for the future in coming years. The
second factor is the U.S. commitment to assist Vietnam develop its capacity for
maritime security. Lifting the arms embargo would create a new environment for the
development of defence ties. In this sense it reflects the development of strategic
trust evident in the Joint Vision Statement on defence cooperation issued in 2015 by
National Defence Minister General Phung Quang Thanh and Secretary of Defense
Ashton Carter. This statement held out the prospect of trade in defence articles and
defence technology. It is more likely the two sides will pursue this avenue, leading to
co-production, than it is for Vietnam to request the U.S. to sell big ticket expensive
weapons and platforms (naval warships and jet fighters). The TPP and defence
cooperation represent two important parts of a larger comprehensive partnership.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Visit - 5
Carlyle A. Thayer
May16, 2016
Q1. There is an assessment that President Obamas visit to Vietnam is late as he is in
his final months in office. What motivates President Obama to visit Vietnam?
ANSWER: President Obama is meeting his promise to former President Truong Tan
Sang in 2013 to do his level best to visit Vietnam before his term in office expires.
In other words, he is reciprocating Sangs visit and meeting protocol. But Obamas
visit is much more than that. President Obama wants to set the course for the future
of bilateral relations with Vietnam as he did with Iran and Cuba. In Vietnams case
bilateral relations are much more advanced. President Obama would like to enlarge
cooperation set out in the Agreement on Comprehensive Partnership. He will
address legacies of the past and he will look to the future. Vietnam represents one of
the success stories in President Obamas rebalance towards Asia and the Pacific
policy.
Q2. As an regional specialist, what is your assessment of President Obamas visit to
Vietnam?
ANSWER: Vietnam has and is playing a significant and positive role in ASEAN, in
regional affairs and globally. I would like to see both sides address issue of concern in
a constructive manner and more importantly, advance the bilateral relationship
across all the areas in the comprehensive partnership: political and diplomatic
relations, trade and economic ties, science and technology, education and training,
environment and health, war legacy issues, defense and security, protection and
promotion of human rights, and culture, sports, and tourism. The priority area is
economic relations and the TPP. Vietnam likely will ratify the TPP at the June sitting
of the new National Assembly. U.S. ratification is in doubt and will be decided in
2017. I would like to see President Obama play a strong role in getting the U.S.
Senate to ratify the TPP.
Q3. There is so much talk recently about the possibility that Washington could
remove the ban on lethal weapon sales to Vietnam. What are the benefits for the
two countries if the US did it now?
ANSWER: The immediate benefit of lifting the arms embargo would be political and
would end a legacy of the past. There would be no more discrimination against
2
Vietnam. Beyond this, the ball is in Vietnams court to submit an expression of
interest in what it would like to purchase. Since the partial lifting of the arms
embargo in 2014, it appears that Vietnam has taken no action. What is clear,
however, is that the lifting of the arms embargo would allow forward progress on
the Joint Vision Statement on defence cooperation that identified trade in defense
articles and technology leading to co-production. Vietnam should be able to access
U.S. defense technology that would improve its ability to network its defence
systems especially in communications, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and
maritime domain awareness. This would create a link between U.S. and Vietnamese
national defense industries.
Q4 How will the South China Sea disputes be discussed during the Presidents visit?
ANSWER: Both sides will reach agreement that disputes in the South China Sea
should be settled peacefully without force or the threat of force under international
law including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Both sides will
support freedom of navigation. Both sides likely will urge all parties to implement
the decisions of the Arbitral Tribunal. And, of course, both sides will endorse
ASEANs policy of implementing the Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South
China Sea (DOC) and concluding a Code of Conduct. Both sides are likely to express
concerns over recent developments in the South China Sea without naming China.
Q5. In your assessment what does Obama want to achieve in bilateral relations with
Vietnam and on a resolution of the South China Sea dispute?
ANSWER: President Obamas visit will leave a road map for his successor to follow in
developing relations with Vietnam. Obama may retire but many Senators will remain
in office. So bilateral relations are on a firm foundation and can be expected to
expand in coming years. Whatever understanding and agreement is reached
between President Obama and Vietnams leaders, this will be overshadowed by
Chinas rejection of the Arbitral Tribunals decisions. China will behave badly setting
off an international propaganda campaign undermining UNCLOS and a rules-based
order in the South China Sea. Given the election of a new president in the Philippines
who is willing to open talks with China on the South China Sea, ASEAN consensus will
be even more difficult to achieve.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Visit 4 & South China Sea
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 20, 2016
Questions related to President Obamas visit to Vietnam
Q1. How would you assess the development of US-Vietnam relations over the last
couple of years?
ANSWER: Under the Obama Administration U.S.-Vietnam were elevated to their
highest level. In 2013 President Obama received his Vietnamese counterpart,
President Truong Tan Sang, in the White House and the two leaders issued a far
reaching Agreement on Comprehensive Partnership. Vietnam signed on to the TPP
negotiations. Two years later in June 2015 the U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton
Carter and his counterpart General Phung Quang Thanh issued a Joint Vision
Statement on future defence cooperation that held open future trade in defence
equipment and technology and possible co-production. In July 2013, President
Obama received Nguyen Phu Trong, the Secretary General of the Vietnam
Communist Party in the Oval Office. The two leaders agreed, among other things, to
respect each others political systems. In 2014 Secretary of State John Kerry
announced the partial lifting of arms sales to Vietnam on a case-by-case basis related
to maritime security.
The two navies have expanded cooperation from naval engagement activities to
naval operations in executing CUES the Code on Unexpected Encounters at Sea.
The U.S. has stepped up its efforts to address the legacies of war such as cleaning up
dioxin poisoning near Da Nang the most serious hot spot. Vietnam also agreed to
permit the Fulbright University to open in Vietnam.
Q2. What are crucial points in the relations (Agent Orange, weapons embargo (from
VN's perspective), human rights (from the perspective of the US Congress)?
ANSWER: The Agreement on Comprehensive Partnership sets out nine broad areas
of cooperation: political and diplomatic relations, trade and economic ties, science
and technology, education and training, environment and health, war legacy issues,
defence and security, protection and promotion of human rights, and culture, sports,
and tourism. The crucial points the sensitive issues - in the bilateral relations
concern economic relations and Vietnams participation in the TPP, defence-security
2
relations, addressing the legacies of war (Agent Orange and disposal of unexploded
ordnance), and human rights
Q3. What do you think about Obamas diplomatic legacy in Asia especially regarding
Vietnam?
ANSWER: U.S.-Vietnam relations represent one of the success stories of President
Obamas signature initiative, the rebalancing towards the Asia Pacific. Vietnam was
an early member of the TPP negotiations and its National Assembly is likely to ratify
the TPP agreement at its first session in June following national elections in this
month. Vietnam and the United States have been drawn closer together due to a
convergence of interests on the South China Sea dispute. Both support the peaceful
settlement of disputes under international law, including the UN Convention on the
Law of the Sea. The Obama Administrations Lower Mekong Initiative is especially
welcomed by Hanoi because it helps mitigate the downstream impact of Chinas
construction of dams on the Upper Mekong.
Q4. What are Vietnams main (top three) interests?
ANSWER: Vietnams top three interests are: (1) continued access to the U.S. market
on the best terms possible, hopefully the TPP; (2) continued U.S. political, diplomatic
and material support for Vietnams dispute with China over the South China Sea; and
(3) the full implementation of the Agreement on Comprehensive Partnership.
Q5. What are USA's top three interests?
ANSWER: The top three U.S. interests are: (1) economic relations and Vietnams
participation in the TPP; (2) Vietnams continued constructive contribution to
regional and international security (non-proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction, international peacekeeping under the auspices of the United Nations,
greater capacity in Vietnam to deal with the full spectrum of maritime security
issues); and (3) increased defence and security cooperation coupled with an
improvement in Vietnams human right situation.
Q6. What do you expect for the near term future regarding US-Vietnam bilateral
relations?
ANSWER: President Obamas visit will lay the foundations for an upward trajectory in
bilateral relations as a follow-on to his initiatives towards Iran and Cuba. Vietnam is
far more advanced in its bilateral relations and thus there is greater scope for
specific action. The U.S. will increase its efforts to address war legacy issues, step up
its assistance in capacity building for Vietnams Coast Guard and Fishery Surveillance
Force, there will be a marked increase in educational and academic exchanges as
well as practical cooperation on the legal front to bring Vietnams domestic
legislation into line with Constitutional provisions on human right and religious
freedom as well as Vietnams international obligations as a signatory to relevant
conventions on these issues. I am inclined to believe that President Obama will lift
the embargo on the sale of lethal weapons and thus address Vietnams concerns.
This will open the door for exchanges in defence trade and technology as a gradual
pace.
Questions related to territorial disputes
3
Q1. In a nutshell: what are the different maritime disputes in Asia essentially about?
ANSWER: The maritime disputes are about sovereignty over specific land features
islands and rocks and sovereign rights over maritime zones such as the territorial
sea and Exclusive Economic Zone. In other words who has the rights to all the
resources in the water column and sea bed on the continental shelf such as fisheries,
other marine life, hydrocarbons and minerals falling within these zones. The crux of
the dispute is over Chias assertion of indisputable sovereignty over all the land
features (including sunken reefs, shoals and low tide elevations) within its nine-dash
line and the resistance by littoral states who base their claims on contemporary
international law embodied in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Related to
this is dispute is whether China is or should be the hegemonic power and resistance
bordering on defiance on the part of some littoral states in order to maintain their
autonomy.
At another level maritime disputes are a by-product of strategic rivalry between
China and the United States and who should be the pre-eminent power in East Asia.
Q2. What needs to be done to manage growing maritme tensions?
ANSWER: At the most strategic level, the major powers must come to an agreement
on how to maintain the status quo; that is, a halt to further militarization of artificial
islands such as offensive weaponry. Agreement between China and the U.S. is the
key ingredient.
Secondly, there has to be agreement between China and the states of Southeast Asia
on norms, rules and international law on the settlement of maritime disputes.
UNCLOS mandates than when agreement cannot be reached the parties should
enter into provisional arrangements of a practical nature.
Regional tensions are expected to reach a new high when the Arbitral Tribunal
announces its finding in the case brought against China by the Philippines. China will
make good on its pledge to reject the Tribunals findings. The international
community including the U.S., Japan, Europe, Australia etc. must launch a
concerted political and diplomatic campaign to pressure China to adhere to
international law. If China persists, growing tensions will continue to rise. Chinese
assertiveness will give rise to a push back by the U.S. and Japan.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: President Obamas Visit 4 & South
China Sea, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 20, 2016. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Visit - 3
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 20, 2016
Q1. Although there are many supporters, therere still some opponents about the
lifting of the US arms embargo on Vietnam. Given that the Republicans form the
majority in the US Congress, do you think that the decision to lift the arms embargo
will be approved easily?
ANSWER: The U.S. arms embargo is formally titled the International Trafficking in
Arms Regulations or ITAR for short. These are regulations passed by Congress that
the President can lift unilaterally on advice from the Department of State. It should
be noted in this context that it was Secretary of State John Kerry who announced in
2014 the partial lifting of the arms embargo on a case by case basis.
The current Senate is unlikely to take action against the embargo because senior
figures such as Republican Senator John McCain support lifting the embargo. He
controls the important Senate Armed Services Committee. It is an election year and
the Congress is not likely to override a presidential decision at this time. In sum, this
is a decision President Obama can make unilaterally because ITAR is not a law bu a
regulation.
Q2. Until now, almost 90% of Vietnam arms are imported from Russia. What are the
difficulties for Vietnam if it gradually starts switching to buy weapons from the US?
ANSWER: Vietnam is unlikely to switch from Russia to the United States to buy big
ticket items such as fourth generation multirole jet fighters, naval warships and the
like. Vietnam has a tried and true source of advanced weaponry and the
experience needed to maintain, service and deploy these items. Vietnam ranks
among the top ten recipients of Russian arms sales and Russia will want to keep its
market share. Besides, items like the advanced Kilo-class submarines will require
Russian assistance for a considerable period of time.
The difficulties facing Vietnam in purchasing weapons and military equipment from
the United States are more mundane. Vietnam must first determine what it really
needs and if the U.S. equipment is suitable. And once this decision is made, Vietnam
will have to go through a protracted process of getting approval for its purchases.
The U.S. is very cumbersome and bureaucratic in selling weapons and defence
technology.
2
The real key to the future may be found in the June 2015 Joint Vision Statement
issued by Minister of National Defence General Phung Quang Thanh and Secretary of
Defense Ashton Carter. This statement included the possible expansion of defence
trade in the future and cooperation in the production of new technologies and
equipment where possible under current law and policy restrictions. Vietnam has
hosted at least two working sessions with U.S. defence industries including Boeing
and Lockheed. It appears that the following could be areas of interest to Vietnam:
coastal radar, modern communications systems, drones, equipment and technology
related to intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance especially in the maritime
domain. Eventual co-production of relevant defence technology would result when
there was sufficient strategic trust.
Q3. How will the removal of the ban help Vietnam to access other weapon suppliers
that are the American allies? You mentioned that Vietnam and US are about to head
toward co-production in future defence trade. What is the meaning of this
cooperation?
ANSWER: Any U.S. ally would need U.S. permission to supply Vietnam with any
weaponry or military equipment that included U.S. sourced technology. Aside from
that, the end of the U.S. embargo would make defence sales by U.S. allies easier
because the U.S. restrictions would no longer be in place. In other words, if the U.S.
had strategic trust in Vietnam this would encourage U.S. allies to follow suit. It is
unclear what technology would feature in co-production but what Vietnam needs
most is the equipment and technology to network its systems of sensors and
weapons to make them more efficient in real time. If Vietnam and the U.S.
developed a niche market in a particular technology this might be sold abroad.
Q4. By lifting the ban and continue to provide Vietnam with other technical and
technology assistance and sharing, in the US viewpoint, what is the US purpose in
helping Vietnam to upgrade its capability of maritime defence in the region?
ANSWER: The United States and Vietnam share a congruence of strategic interests
on many issues. The purpose of the U.S. providing and sharing technical assistance
would be to build up Vietnams capacity in priority areas so Vietnam could take
responsibility for maritime security in the first instance. The U.S. has an interest in
burden sharing by its allies and strategic partners. A second purpose would be to
build on practical cooperation to enhance interaction and interoperability between
the two defence establishments. This would most likely focus on non-war fighting
aspects (military operations other than war is the terminology) such as transnational
crime, illegal unreported and unregulated fishing, search and rescue, nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and humanitarian assistance and
disaster relief.

3
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Visit - 2
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 17, 2016
Q1. Will President Obama's visit to Vietnam differ from his two predecessors?
President Clinton's had that milestone feel to it, start a new era in relations etc.
President Bush's visit was pretty brief and rather closed door, it seems. Is there also
a historical quality to Obama's visit, real potential to further relations or more a
swansong afterthought following a much distracted pivot?
ANSWER: More than his predecessors, President Obama really took bilateral
relations with Vietnam to the next level. Obama and his Vietnamese counterpart
Truong Tan Sang issued an Agreement on Comprehensive Partnership in 2013.
Defense Secretary Ashton Carter and Vietnams National Defense Minister Phung
Quang adopted a Joint Visiion Statement on defence cooperation. And President
Obama received the Secretary General of the Vietnam Communist Party, Nguyen
Phu Trong, in the Oval Office at The White House.
President Obamas signature initiative the rebalance towards the Asia-Pacific has
been very successful with Vietnam. Vietnam signed on early to the TPP negotiations
and its National Assembly is likely to ratify the TPP at its first sitting in June after
national elections this month. President Obama has been forward thinking in his last
months in office. He reached an agreement with Iran on nuclear weapons and
normalized relations with Cuba. Relations with Vietnam are more advanced and it is
likely that President Obama will map out the future with an expanded
comprehensive partnership with Vietnam with economics and defence-security the
centre pieces.
Q2. -- What does the Vietnamese government want out of this trip?
ANSWER: Vietnam pursues a policy of mulilateralization and diversification of its
foreign relations. Vietnam wants to maintain a multipolar balance in its relations
with the major powers without aligning with any one. Vietnam wants the United
States to continue to address three legacies of the Vietnam War Agent Orange,
unexploded ordnance and the arms embargo. More than that Vietnam wants
continued access to the U.S. market through the TPP. And Vietnam wants to step up
all the areas of cooperation included in the comprehensive partnership agreement.
In sum, Vietnam wants a substantial relationship with the U.S. in its own rights and
as leverage in its dealing with other major powers. Vietnam wants each major power
2
to think that its relations with Vietnam are important not only in their own right, but
vis-a-vis other major powers.
Q3. -- Is there much demand for a recognition by the US of the lives taken during the
war? The Japanese are keen for Obama to make an apology when he visits Hiroshima
after Vietnam (we're told that's unlikely) but is there the same kind of wish in
Vietnam? Would recognition or some contrition help advance relations?
ANSWER: Under the 1973 Agreement on Ending the War and Restoring Peace in
Vietnam, the U.S. was obligated to heal the wounds of war. President Nixon even
wrote a letter promising several billion dollars in aid. The U.S. repudiated the Paris
Agreement because of Communist Vietnamese violations of the truce. So Vietnam
has an historical sense of entitlement. It often uses progress on war legacy issues as
part of the bargaining process with the United States. But Vietnam has moved
beyond the Vietnam War its favourite expression decades ago was let bygones be
bygones. Vietnam has accepted U.S. assistance in helping it search for its missing in
action. Vietnam does not require nor expect any apology or sense of contrition from
President Obama.
Q4. -- The White House is keen to push trade during the visit, in particular the
benefits of the TPP. Given its authoritarian nature, Vietnam has none of the worries
Obama has about TPP not being passed. But how much does Vietnam stand to gain
from the pact?
ANSWER: U.S. officials say that Vietnam stands to gain the most from the TPP among
all twelve signatories. Its GDP is expected to be lifted. In addition, the TPP is
welcomed by domestic reformers because it brings an external discipline
(international commitment) to bear on domestic reforms. Given Vietnams massive
trade deficit with China, it is vital for Vietnam to retain access to the U.S. market on
the best terms possible. Vietnam undoubtedly seeks assurance that the U.S. Senate
will pass the TPP.
Q5. -- Some have been raising the prospect of Washington fully lifting its arms
embargo. How likely do you think that eventuality is?
ANSWER: I am inclined, with some reservations, to believe that President Obama will
lift the arms embargo despite some domestic opposition in the US. He took bold
steps with Iran and Cuba and lifting the arms embargo clears the path for future
defence cooperation.
Q6.-- If the arms embargo was fully lifted, what kind of things would Vietnam be
looking to purchase to add to its largely Russian origin military? How could the US
bolster Vietnam's military?
ANSWER: The lifting of the arms embargo would permit defence trade and
technology cooperation leading to co-production. Vietnam is unlikely to want big
ticket items like jet fighters or warships due to their price. Whatever Vietnam
requests, it must be approved according to U.S. laws and regulations. This was
spelled out in the Joint Vision Statement on defence cooperation agreed to in June
2015.
3
Vietnam appears to want technology related to communications, intelligence,
surveillance, reconnaissance and maritime domain awareness. This could include
coastal radar and sensors for maritime patrol aircraft, if not the actual purchase of a
PC3 Orion.
Q7. -- Washington has been pushing for Hanoi to improve its human rights record.
How much progress on human rights have been made since the arms ban was
partially lifted in 2014?
ANSWER: Vietnam has a mixed record on human rights. It has met its obligations
under paragraph nine of the 2013 Agreement of Comprehensive Partnership. That is,
Vietnam has ratified the international Convention against Torture and Other Cruel,
Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment and it has permitted the UN Special
Rapporteur on Human Rights and a delegation from Amnesty International to visit
Vietnam. Vietnam has also permitted the registration of more religious groups and
has ease restrictions in law that benefits the LGBT [Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and
Transgender] community.
But Vietnam continues to harass the Unified Buddhist Church of Vietnam and arrest
and imprison bloggers and political activists for peacefully criticizing the regime.
Vietnam and the United States have focused recent discussions on bringing
Vietnams domestic legislation into line with clauses of the state Constitution
(amended in 2013) recognizing human rights and religious freedom, as well as into
line with its international obligations. The U.S. has also called for the release of
political prisoners. In sum, the issue of human rights has expanded to embrace a
larger agenda than individual dissidents.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, President Obamas Visit - 2, Thayer

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Vietnam: President Obama and

the Arms Embargo
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 13, 2016
Q1. How does the US benefit from lifting the sale of lethal weapons to Vietnam, in
terms of:
- US influence in the region
- US economy, job-creation, arms exports, etc.
- US military
ANSWER: If President Obama makes the decision to lift completely the restrictions
on the sale of lethal weapons to Vietnam, he will be responding to repeated requests
by Vietnamese officials to end this discrimination and fully normalize relations with
Vietnam. The first dividend is political.
There is not much scope for large weapons sales to Vietnam because U.S. weapons
are too expensive, and so far Vietnam has not responded to the partial lifting of
weapons sales on a case by case basis with any expression of interest. The U.S. so far
has limited weapons sales to defensive weapons for maritime security, especially to
Vietnam's Coast Guard.
Several U.S. defense companies have been to Vietnam and have discusses items such
as communications equipment, drones, and equipment related to ISR - intelligence,
surveillance and reconnaissance. Aircraft sales have been mentioned. The PC3 Orion
is being replaced in many advanced air forces by the P8 Poseidon. The Orion is a
tried and true maritime reconnaissance aircraft in service around the world. U.S.
companies would benefit from the sale of the Orion and follow on maintenance and
provision of spare parts. This would increase U.S. influence in Vietnam.
The area with the most potential was included in the Joint Vision Statement issued in
June 2015 by General Phung Quang Thanh, Minister of National Defence, and
Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter. This document included future defence trade
and defence technology cooperation. This indicates that joint production may be a
possibility. This would result in U.S. companies expanding their market. But not
many jobs are likely to be created due to the small scale of likely Vietnamese
purchases.
2
Vietnam, if it decides to buy any significant defence weaponry and equipment from
the U.S., will be entering the arms market as a late starter. The U.S. already provides
Singapore, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei and Thailand (suspended
since the military coup) with military sales.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: President Obama and the Arms
Embargo, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 13, 2016. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

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Vietnam: President Obamas

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