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Thayer Consultancy
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initiatives towards Iran and Cuba. Relations with Vietnam are more advanced. Lifting
the embargo is not just related to human rights, but to Vietnams willingness to step
up defence cooperation with the United States. This could include lifting the ban on
one naval ship visit per country each year.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: Chinese Aircraft Intercept
U.S. Maritime Patrol Aircraft, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 19, 2016.
All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove
yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the
Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Thayer Consultancy
Background Briefing:
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ANSWER: China has always shadowed US warships in the South China Sea regardless
whether they just sailing through or conducting FONOP. US officials say the Chinese
are behaving more professionally by not conducting dangerous encounters. Chinas
actions are all part of the game. In all incidents Chinese propaganda has claimed
falsely that they drove the US out of the area. This sort of action is the new normal
between the two militaries. Much of Chinese reaction is just for show and domestic
propaganda.
In reality no actions by ASEAN, individual claimant states or the US have dissuaded
China from continuing to consolidate its presence in the Spratly Islands. Beijing has
launched a diplomatic offensive to secure the political endorsement of many small
states behind its position that outside powers should not get involved in South China
Sea disputes. At the moment, China has gotten away with building artificial islands
and interfering with the movement of Philippines military ships and aircraft as well
as fishermen. The real test will come when the Arbitral Tribunal hands down its
decision. In one sense the countries in the region have accepted the new status quo
because China has succeeded in building seven artificial islands despite expressions
of serious concern by ASEAN members. The real test will be whether Indonesia,
Malaysia and other countries accept Chinas rejection of international law.
4 On May 10, Daniel Russel, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, speaking in
Hanoi, repeated the words "serious tension" in South China Sea; Russel stressed that
many countries have deep concerns over China's reclamation. Is this is an indication
that President Obama is going to make an important announcement on the South
China Sea when he visits Vietnam later this month?
ANSWER: President Obama and his counterpart President Tran Dai Quang are likely
to issue a statement that sets out their serious concerns over tensions in the South
China Sea. This is only a repetition of what ASEAN leaders and ASEAN-US leaders
have already stated. President Obama will argue that international law must be
respected; he will offer further assistance to Vietnam to improve its capacity for
maritime security.
5 - Has tension in the South China Sea gotten worse in the last six monthsWhy and
why not?
ANSWER: Tensions will rise markedly once the Arbitral Tribunal makes its decision.
China will reject it completely and may do something provocative to demonstrate
that international law cannot constrain its actions. The US will lead the international
community in condemning China for its actions. China is opportunistic and will play
on the uncertainties in the Philippines and the United States over leadership
transitions. Many analysts feel China will act before Obama leaves office, otherwise
Chinese actions would be viewed as a direct challenge to a new American president
that cannot be ignored. This could provoke a confrontation.
6 - Do you believe that the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) will make a
judgement which benefits the Philippines in its case? Will the Philippines' new
president adopt a hard line with China on maritime disputes?
ANSWER: The PCA is likely to make a decision favourable to the Philippines on the
status of the Chinese-occupied features, indicating that some are low tide elevations
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and others are rocks. It is likely the Arbitral Tribunal will give a mixed decision and
thus leave many issues to be settled. This could open the door for renewed
discussions between Beijing and Manila. The new Philippine president has indicated
that he will defend Philippine sovereignty but also seek to improve economic
relations with China. China will still reject the Tribunals finding but may moderate its
behaviour to engage with President Duterte. Duterte is not likely to be as proAmerican as President Aquino and China will want to exploit this.
7 - Is that possible that Laos, as ASEAN Cahir for this year, will maintain ASEAN's
consensus on the South China Sea issue? Has China been successful in winning the
support of Laos, Cambodia and Brunei?
ANSWER: Laos will maintain ASEANs consensus on the South China Sea because it
has already been agreed and stated many times last year. But Laos is unlikely to be
proactive on this question. The real issue is can ASEAN form a consensus on how to
respond if China rejects the decisions of the Arbitral Tribunal? China argued that it
had reached consensus with Brunei, Cambodia and Laos on the South China Sea but
it appears China has distorted what these countries agreed to. Spokespersons in
Vientiane and Phnom Penh have denied agreeing to what China media has reported.
Unfortunately Indonesia is under a new leadership and there is no Foreign Minister
like Marty Natalegawa to step in to restore ASEAN unity.
8 What are the implications for Vietnam?
ANSWER: Vietnam will have to intensify its diplomacy among ASEAN members to get
a united front on the South China Sea especially after the Arbitral Tribunal makes its
decision. ASEAN should insist that China comply with the decisions of the Arbitral
Tribunal. Vietnam should make sure that its relations with the Philippines remain as
close under the new President as they have been under President Aquino.
Vietnam should study the decisions of the Arbitral Tribunal with great care and
decide if it should take legal actions in areas where its interests are affected.
Vietnam should extend its defence diplomacy with friendly states to include
discussions on the experiences of other countries that have a submarine force.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: Third U.S. Freedom of
Navigation Patrol, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 17, 2016. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.