Thayer Consultancy

Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam and the Lifting of the

U.S. Arms Embargo
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 7, 2016
Keith Johnson, Foreign Policy Blog:
1. There has been talk about lifting the embargo - fully for quite a while now,
obviously in response to whats going on in the South China Sea. We would like to
ask you: would the kind of sales that the US would likely do, which seem to lean
more toward MDA [Maritime Domain Awareness]-type of platforms, rather than real
lethality, would be an effective aid to Vietnamese forces in the region. We mean,
given the imbalance between forces as it is, and also the militarization of the Chinese
fishing fleet, not to mention their white hulls, I wasnt sure that a handful of P-8s,
say, or a few older patrol boats or whatever is on the sales list would do very much
to restore a semblance of balance. But Id love your thoughts.
ANSWER: Under present policy, a lifting of the sale of lethal weapons on a case-bycase basis, sales are limited Vietnam's Coast Guard. So far Vietnam has not come
back to the US with any expression of interest. US assistance and donation of patrol
craft is really quite limited and the patrol craft and quite small. Vietnam. however,
could benefit from technologies re* has replaced and is replacing the PC3 Orions in
many regional air forces there will be a buyers market.
Vietnam's main naval deterrence and strike force is all Russian supplied and this is
likely to continued. Su30 multirole =jet fighters, coastal anti-ship missiles (Bastion),
missile fast attack craft, frigates, and of course the enhanced Kilo-class submarines.
When Vietnam's Defence Minister and the Sec Def Ashton Carter signed a Joint
Vision Statement on defence cooperation, a new development that received little
attention was a clause on defence technology cooperation. Vietnam would like to
see some technology transferred. This is an evolving issue and the one with the most
promise.
2. From the political angle, its clearly tricky here. But how does it look from there?
Vietnam has already had to do a bit of a tightrope walk, ever since the rig and riots,
and there have been some olive branch moments with China of late. From Vietnams
perspective, would such a deal be a step too far, in terms of antagonizing China for
little practical gain, or on the contrary, would it be just what the doctor ordered?
ANSWER: The prime motivation behind Vietnam's request for the lifting of all ITAR
(International trafficking in Arms Regulations) restrictions is political. These

2
restrictions are viewed as discriminatory. Vietnam's conservatives try to spike those
seeking closer relations with the US by arguing that the US still seeks to overthrow
Vietnam by peaceful evolution (human rights/religious freedom), the US is not doing
enough to address Agent Orange (the US is addressing this problem) and the US
continues to discriminate with ITAR restrictions.
I do not think that China's reactions to arms procurements by Vietnam are all that
decisive in Vietnam's calculations. Vietnam is more concerned about giving the US a
presence, say at Cam Ranh, and how China would react to that.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam and the Lifting of the U.S. Arms
Embargo, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 7, 2016. All background briefs
are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing
list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy

Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam: Terrorists Spark

Dead Fish Transparency
Protests!
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 16, 2016
[client name deleted]
This popped up on our radar today: http://tuoitrenews.vn/society/34802/terroristgroup-responsible-for-recent-rallies-in-ho-chi-minh-city-police. It is pretty interesting
to have these issues come to the fore just before President Obama's visit to Vietnam.
How do you think it may shape discussion on human rights?
ANSWER: First, the Viet Tan is not a terrorist group. Second, if the report is accurate,
then the Ministry of Public Security has been lax in not uncovering a renewal of Viet
Tan activity after a crackdown some years ago. Third, the charge the Viet Tan was
involved is obviously designed to undermine the legitimacy of public protests and
distract attention from the governments poor handling of the dead fish issue.
Charging that the Viet Tan was present at peaceful protests revives conservative
concerns about the plot of peaceful evolution and a colour revolution. So far no
arrests have been made public and suppression of peaceful freedom of expression is
now an issue. But the tone of the article indicates that security authorities are ready
to arrest those who peacefully dissent using trumped changed of violence and the
overthrow of the government.
President Obama is stepping into a hot house security atmosphere with national
elections being held on the day of his arrival.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Terrorists Spark Dead Fish

Transparency Protests!, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 16, 2016. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy

Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam: National Assembly

Elections
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 13, 2016
[client name deleted]
1. Were you surprised at all by the Vietnamese government's decision to prevent
nearly one hundred independent candidates from running in the National Assembly
election? If not, why not? If so, why so?
ANSWER: No I was not surprised. Vocal opponents of the government and
individuals attempting to run as self-nominated independents without the blessing
of the establishment are invariably disqualified. Small numbers of independent
candidates have been allowed to nominate and some have run in past elections. The
highest number of independent candidates to have been elected for a single
legislative term is two. The Vietnam Communist Party, through the Vietnam
Fatherland Front, vets non-party members and permits them to run.
2. This question is a bit. To what extent do you feel that social media played a role in
the independents' campaign/level of international media attention? Do you feel that
there are issues with social media campaigns in an authoritarian country like
Vietnam? Were you cheered by the level of international media attention or does
that have certain issues, too (such as the lack of importance such attention holds to
your average Vietnamese)?
ANSWER: The social media played an unprecedented role both domestically and in
attracting international attention about the intention of scores of individuals to run
as self-nominated independents to test the waters under the new constitution.
Media attention certainly turned the international spot light on independents. But in
reality all this media coverage was counter-productive and no doubt steeled local
officials to find reasons to disqualify independents who attempted to register.
Indeed, the electoral campaign period has always been a subdued affair. Candidates
are allowed to publish their biographies. But other than general platitudes they are
not permitted to issue a policy platform.
3. Even given the barring of most non-Party independents from running, do you
consider there to be something important in the fact that so many tried? Is
Vietnamese democracy emerging or at least changing? Or is the plan to make it
merely look like it is?

2
ANSWER: The number of independents, and the number of vocal independents, was
unprecedented for an election in Vietnam since the 1992 Electoral Law was adopted
(making it a requirement that each seat be contested by more than one candidate).
The electoral process is highly restricted in that only a pre-determined number of
candidates can stand in multi-member electorates, say 5 candidates for 3 seats. The
central authorities also work out what they consider to be the ideal National
Assembly in term of quotas a percentage for women, a percentage for the military,
ethnic minorities, religious representation, non-party etc.
The National Assembly comprises 500 deputies. Roughly 100 are nominated by
central authorities and the remaining 400 by provincial authorities. There is some
bargaining at each level to determine who get selected. And election day can bring a
few surprises. One year an independent, a former medical doctor who served in the
Army of the Republic of Vietnam (South Vietnam), was elected. In the 1992
elections, at which I was an official observer, six favoured candidates were not
elected in Ho Chi Minh City.
An independent must not only have his/her application accepted but must pass two
pre-selection contests, one at work and one in the home neighbourhood. Local
officials often organise and hand-pick who attends each pre-selection. The odds are
stacked against independents.
For the long-term future of Vietnam it will be important to see what the reaction is
in society to the barring of so many independents. It will be interesting to see if any
newly elected deputies raise this issue. And it will be interesting to see if the
Vietnam Communist Party/Fatherland Front establishment conducts a wash up and
evaluates the process of having independents nominated.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: National Assembly Elections,

Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 13, 2016. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.