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Background Briefing:
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aircraft) or systems (missiles). The lifting of the arms embargo gives Vietnam some
leverage in dealing with China. The lifting of the arms embargo removes political
restraints U.S allies and strategic partners may have felt in their dealings with
Vietnam. Vietnam is likely to give priority to procuring advanced communications
systems and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance technology related to
maritime security and maritime domain awareness. U.S. systems will be compatible
with regional states and feed into a U.S. initiative to develop a real time common
operational picture. Vietnam will be drawn into a very special regional club that
includes U.S. allies and strategic partners.
Q4. What are your thoughts on the attempt to counterbalance Chinas influence and
how this visit will impact on the current situation in the South China Sea?
Vietnam does not want to ally with the United States against China. But Vietnam
would like to see the U.S. do the heavy lifting to counter-balance Chinas military
power. Vietnam wants U.S. support for self-help or, in other words, support for
Vietnams efforts to be as self-reliant in defence matters. The U.S. and Vietnam have
a growing convergence of strategic interests in countering Chinese assertiveness in
the South China Sea. Both agree that maritime disputes should be settled peacefully
on the basis on international law without the threat or use of force. Both will find
common cause when China rejects the finding of the Arbitral Tribunal in the case
brought against China by the Philippines.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: President Obama Visits Vietnam 15, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 23, 2016. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Thayer Consultancy
Background Briefing:
2
alter the balance of naval power in the South China Sea in the near future. China will
have to factor in to its policy that Vietnam and the U.S. are on an upward trajectory
supported by a growing convergence of interest in the South China Sea. U.S. arms
sales to Vietnam will assist Vietnam in improving its capacity of self-defence and
therefore deterrence against China.
Q3. How China will react?
ANSWER: Chinese media are likely to criticize the decision and put the blame on
Obama. They will argue that the U.S. cannot buy Vietnam. Chinese officials will be
more circumspect. After all Vietnam has acquired real lethal weapons from Russia
without provoking official Chinese reaction.
Thayer Consultancy
Background Briefing:
2
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Thayer Consultancy
Background Briefing:
2
Q4- What do you predict the reaction will be from China?
ANSWER: China has already issued an announcement that is measured in tone. It
hopes the lifting of the arms embargo will be conducive to regional peace and
stability. The Chinese popular media will take a harder line. China is not in a position
to come down hard against Vietnam because that would harm Chinas interests in
developing its relations with Vietnam by reducing the space in which they can
cooperate. China does not want to push Vietnam towards the United States.
Q5- What should Vietnam do to make the best of this opportunity? Will it result in a
shift in the balance of Russian and American weapons in Vietnamese army?
ANSWER: For the immediate future and beyond the lifting of the arms embargo will
not result in a reduction of the Russian-Vietnamese defence relations. Vietnams
technicians and military officers are trained in Russian technology and methods.
Vietnams most modern equipment Su-30s, Gepard-class frigates and advanced
Kilo-class submarines are all Russian.
If Vietnam mixed and matched Russian and US military equipment and technology it
would create a logistics nightmare. Vietnam needs access to US defence technology
that would assist in networking its systems and provide real time information on
what is going on in Vietnams maritime domain. Vietnam is looking at a very
specialized area of advanced communications technology, coastal radar and
intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance technology to assist in maritime
domain awareness.
Vietnam should take advantage of the lifting of the arms embargo to explore fully
the range of defence equipment and technology that the US will sell and move
gradually to acquire this technology and integrate it in Vietnam armed forces.
Thayer Consultancy
Background Briefing:
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: What Will Vietnam Ask For Now
That the Embargo is Lifted?, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 24, 2016.
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All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove
yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the
Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Thayer Consultancy
Background Briefing:
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Arms Embargo Lifted, What Next?,
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 24, 2016. All background briefs are
2
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Thayer Consultancy
Background Briefing:
2
continued access to the US market for its goods. President Obama said that the US
was Vietnam's largest export market. The US ranks number eight among the top ten
investors in Vietnam but not on the scale of Japan or South Korea.
Q4- TPP negotiations.
ANSWER: TPP negotiations have concluded and Vietnam and the US along with ten
other states have signed this agreement. The next step is national ratification by
Vietnam's National Assembly, likely in June, and by the U.S; Congress. There is no
certainty about what the US Congress will do between now and the November
elections and even in the period from the elections to January 2017 when the new
president takes office. President Obama was upbeat on the prospect for ratification.
But during the current primary campaign in the US Hillary Clinton has shifted from
being a supporter of the TPP to a critic. Donald Trump has taken a more extreme
stance, he opposed all multilateral trade agreements. Vietnam must hope for the
best but prepare for the worst.
Q5- What is the position of Vietnam in US foreign policy?
ANSWER: The US is a global power. The US has recognised that Vietnam plays a
constructive role in both regional and global security issues. The US puts Vietnam
among the groups of constructive states that it would like to partner with to address
global issues ranging from climate change to terrorism to non-proliferation of
nuclear weapons.
Q6- How does Vietnam - US relations impact on the region?
ANSWER: If we narrow the focus to Southeast Asia, Vietnam looms higher in US
priorities because of its constructive role in ASEAN, ASEAN-related multilateral
institutions (the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus) and in the East Asian
Summit. Both Vietnam and the United States have a convergence of interest in
dealing with maritime disputes in the South China Sea and with environmental issues
related to the Greater Mekong Region. The US views Vietnam as a partner in
promoting a rules-based regional order that upholds international law including the
UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Q7- The new US leadership's policy towards Vietnam?
ANSWER: There will be continuity in US policy towards Vietnam under an
Administration headed by Hillary Clinton. Clinton is expected to backtrack from her
criticism of the TPP once she is in office. Even if the Republicans regain control of the
Senate she will be able to work with them because they generally support free trade.
Donald Trump represents another kettle of fish. He wants to promote America First
and for the US to be predictably unpredictable. All in-coming US presidents need
roughly one-hundred days in office to review policy, fill political vacancies in the
White House and government, and set priorities. The good news is that Vietnam will
not rank high on the radar screen of the new American president as a problem. The
new US president will have to deal with conflict in the Middle East including Iraq and
Syria, Russia, and China. This means that the legacy left by Obama will be more
continuity than change in relations with Vietnam.