You are on page 1of 14

Thayer Consultancy

Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam: President Obama


Visits Vietnam - 15
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 23, 2016
[client name deleted]
Q1. What do you think is the primary goal of President Obamas visit and the key
deliverables hes looking to achieve?
ANSWER: President Obama is looking towards the future and ensuring that his policy
of rebalance to Asia leaves a positive legacy. Vietnam is one of the success stories of
Obamas rebalance policy. Vietnam signed on to TPP negotiations at an early stage, a
signature initiative of the Obama presidency. In 2013 the presidents of Vietnam and
the United States signed a multifaceted Agreement on Comprehensive Partnership.
Two years later the U.S. and Vietnamese defence ministers issues a Joint Vision
Statement on defence cooperation. All during this period Vietnam pressed the
United States to end its arms embargo. This was viewed as political discrimination.
Vietnams request has been met. This opens the door to develop defence trade and
cooperation in defence technology including co-production. The final joint statement
to be issued at the conclusion of President Obamas visit will build on the agreement
on comprehensive partnership and include major initiatives across a number of
areas education, academic exchanges, science and technology, young leaders, etc.
Q2. How much of a role does the history of the Vietnam War play in cementing and
furthering relations between the two countries?
ANSWER: Long ago Vietnam adopted a pithy expression let bygones be bygones.
Two issues have persisted: dealing with the effects of dioxin poisoning resulting from
the U.S. use of Agent Orange and the disposal of unexploded ordnance left over
from the war. Both issues have been addressed by the Obama Administration and I
expect the President to announce a further commitment to address these issues.
Vietnam and the United States have moved beyond the war. People like myself who
were in Vietnam in 1967-68 are now in their seventies. A younger generation has
emerged in both countries and America is viewed very favourably by the Vietnamese
public in general and the younger generation in particular.
Q3. What impact will the lifting of the U.S. arms embargo have on Vietnams bilateral
relations with the United States and the region?
ANSWER: The lifting of the arms embargo will not result immediately or in the near
term future in any large Vietnamese procurements of weapons platforms (ships and

2
aircraft) or systems (missiles). The lifting of the arms embargo gives Vietnam some
leverage in dealing with China. The lifting of the arms embargo removes political
restraints U.S allies and strategic partners may have felt in their dealings with
Vietnam. Vietnam is likely to give priority to procuring advanced communications
systems and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance technology related to
maritime security and maritime domain awareness. U.S. systems will be compatible
with regional states and feed into a U.S. initiative to develop a real time common
operational picture. Vietnam will be drawn into a very special regional club that
includes U.S. allies and strategic partners.
Q4. What are your thoughts on the attempt to counterbalance Chinas influence and
how this visit will impact on the current situation in the South China Sea?
Vietnam does not want to ally with the United States against China. But Vietnam
would like to see the U.S. do the heavy lifting to counter-balance Chinas military
power. Vietnam wants U.S. support for self-help or, in other words, support for
Vietnams efforts to be as self-reliant in defence matters. The U.S. and Vietnam have
a growing convergence of strategic interests in countering Chinese assertiveness in
the South China Sea. Both agree that maritime disputes should be settled peacefully
on the basis on international law without the threat or use of force. Both will find
common cause when China rejects the finding of the Arbitral Tribunal in the case
brought against China by the Philippines.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: President Obama Visits Vietnam 15, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 23, 2016. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy

Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam: President Obama Lifts


Arms Embargo
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 23, 2016
[client name deleted]
Please give us your analysis of this news: President Barack Obama has announced
the US is fully lifting its embargo on sales of lethal weapons to Vietnam.
Q1. How do you assess the importance of this decision by Obama?
ANSWER: President Obamas decision to lift the arms embargo on Vietnam
represents one of the capstones of his rebalance to Asia in general and Vietnam in
particular. Vietnam is one of Obamas success stories. Vietnam signed on early to the
TPP negotiations. Both presidents signed off on an Agreement on Comprehensive
Partnership in 2013. Defence relations were taken to a new level in mid-2015 when
Secretary of Defence Ashton Carter and Minister of National Defence General Phung
Quang Thanh issued a Joint Vision Statement on defence cooperation. One
paragraph held out the possibility of future defence trade and cooperation in
defence technology.
The total lifting of the arms ban does not mean that no restrictions will apply in
future. Vietnam must comply with U.S. law and regulations, as noted in the Joint
Vision Statement. The U.S. can also refuse requests for weapons platforms and
system that are too sensitive or would be destabilizing in the region. Vietnam is not
likely to try to procure such defence items. Vietnams repeated requests to remove
the arms embargo date back several years. Vietnam was motivated to end what it
viewed as political discrimination. This was a demand that Vietnamese conservatives
pushed strongly. Now they have been placated.
Vietnam is likely to proceed cautiously and gradually. Vietnam will focus on technical
systems related to communications and intelligence, surveillance and
reconnaissance in the maritime domain. Cooperation between defence industries is
now possible with development of new technologies and entering into coproduction.
President Obama made his announcement at a press conference. We must wait for
the final joint communique to see the details.
Q2. Is it a very strong signal to China?
ANSWER: President Obamas decision to lift the arms embargo on Vietnam is a
strong signal to both Vietnam and China. But arms purchases from the U.S. will not

2
alter the balance of naval power in the South China Sea in the near future. China will
have to factor in to its policy that Vietnam and the U.S. are on an upward trajectory
supported by a growing convergence of interest in the South China Sea. U.S. arms
sales to Vietnam will assist Vietnam in improving its capacity of self-defence and
therefore deterrence against China.
Q3. How China will react?
ANSWER: Chinese media are likely to criticize the decision and put the blame on
Obama. They will argue that the U.S. cannot buy Vietnam. Chinese officials will be
more circumspect. After all Vietnam has acquired real lethal weapons from Russia
without provoking official Chinese reaction.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: President Obama Lifts Arms


Embargo, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 23, 2016. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy

Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam: President Obama Lifts


Arms Embargo - 2
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 23, 2016
[client name deleted]
In light of the recent announcement by President Obama that he was lifting the arms
embargo on Vietnam, could you give us an assessment on how this will affect the
outlook for the Vietnam-US defense relationship, as well as the dynamics in the
South China Sea (with regards to China, specifically) and the region as a whole?
ANSWER: President Obama's announcement that the U.S. would lift all restrictions
on the sale of arms to Vietnam shows that he is forward looking. Obama has
overcome a persistent irritant in bilateral relations that will be a legacy for the next
U.S. president to build on. Vietnam has long sought to removal of the arms ban and
President Obama has responded positively.
The ball is now in Vietnam' court to identify its priorities and to familiarize itself with
the complex set of laws and regulations governing arms sales. Even allies like
Australia must go through this progress. If Vietnam engages with the U.S. in
procuring defence technology it will build trust and lead to greater cooperation
between defence industries. This goal was set out in the 2015 Joint Vision Statement
on defence cooperation issued by Ministry of National Defense General Phung
Quang Thanh and Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter.
Vietnam is likely to focus its initial requests on defence communications systems,
coastal radar and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance system for maritime
security. This will enable Vietnam to develop a real time picture of what is taking
place in its waters. Vietnam will also be more interoperable with U.S. allies and
strategic partners, such as Singapore, in developing a common operating picture in
the maritime domain. This development will reduce China's ability to act stealthily or
without warning. In short, Vietnam will enhance its capability for self-defence and its
ability to safeguard its sovereignty.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: President Obama Lifts Arms


Embargo - 2, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 23, 2016. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

2
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy

Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam: President Obama Lifts


Arms Embargo - 3
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 23, 2016
[client name deleted]
Q1- Although the lifting of the US arms embargo on Vietnam was mentioned and
pushed before the visit of President Obama to Vietnam, it was still an astounding
announcement when first mentioned by President Dai Quang in his statement. Was
it a surprise for you personally, did you expect it to come this soon?
ANSWER: In interviews I gave prior to President Obamas announcement I said I was
inclined to believe Obama would lift the arms embargo. This was a positive yet
qualified assessment. I argued that President Obama was clearing away the legacies
of the past so as to lay a road map for the future. Obama normalized relations with
Cuba, negotiated a nuclear agreement with Iran and lifted more sanctions against
Myanmar. I argued that relations with Vietnam were more advanced and that
President Obama would lift the arms embargo. This was his decision to make but
until he made it I still was not one hundred percent certain that he would.
Q2- What do think are the real motivations and purposes behind this move?
ANSWER: President Obama wants to show case the success of his rebalance to Asia
policy. Vietnam has been a success story. It joined the TPP negotiations early and
agreed to the final text. Vietnam and the US reached an agreement on
comprehensive partnership in 2013. President Obama stated in his joint press
conference that he wanted to remove this vestige of the Cold War and to fully
normalize relations and develop strong defence ties with Vietnam in the long-term.
Q3- It might look like Vietnam is the winner, but according to you, who gains the
most from this change of policy?
ANSWER: Both sides benefit because the lifting of the arms embargo opens up
opportunities for cooperation. But we should recall President Obamas caveat that
the US would still apply strict requirements on arms sales related to Vietnams
human rights. Vietnam has benefitted because what it saw as an act of political
discrimination has now been ended. Vietnam is unlikely to make major purchases of
big ticket defence equipment in the immediate future. Vietnam will explore trade
in defence items and cooperation in defence technology leading to co-production.
Both sides will benefit The US benefits because a major impediment to defence
cooperation has been eliminated.

2
Q4- What do you predict the reaction will be from China?
ANSWER: China has already issued an announcement that is measured in tone. It
hopes the lifting of the arms embargo will be conducive to regional peace and
stability. The Chinese popular media will take a harder line. China is not in a position
to come down hard against Vietnam because that would harm Chinas interests in
developing its relations with Vietnam by reducing the space in which they can
cooperate. China does not want to push Vietnam towards the United States.
Q5- What should Vietnam do to make the best of this opportunity? Will it result in a
shift in the balance of Russian and American weapons in Vietnamese army?
ANSWER: For the immediate future and beyond the lifting of the arms embargo will
not result in a reduction of the Russian-Vietnamese defence relations. Vietnams
technicians and military officers are trained in Russian technology and methods.
Vietnams most modern equipment Su-30s, Gepard-class frigates and advanced
Kilo-class submarines are all Russian.
If Vietnam mixed and matched Russian and US military equipment and technology it
would create a logistics nightmare. Vietnam needs access to US defence technology
that would assist in networking its systems and provide real time information on
what is going on in Vietnams maritime domain. Vietnam is looking at a very
specialized area of advanced communications technology, coastal radar and
intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance technology to assist in maritime
domain awareness.
Vietnam should take advantage of the lifting of the arms embargo to explore fully
the range of defence equipment and technology that the US will sell and move
gradually to acquire this technology and integrate it in Vietnam armed forces.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: President Obama Lifts Arms


Embargo - 3, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 23, 2016. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy

Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam: What Will Vietnam


Ask For Now That the Embargo
is Lifted?
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 24, 2016
[client name deleted]
We request your assessment on what Vietnam would be interested in procuring
from the US that it cannot get from Russia or any other country? Is it too late to lift
an arms embargo when so much technology is now available from other countries at
cheaper rates?
ANSWER: The lifting of the US arms embargo was more important politically than
substantially. Vietnam has long made the arms embargo an issue in bilateral
relations. Hanoi viewed it as political discrimination rooted in the Cold War. Now
that the embargo has been lifted nothing with change substantially. As President
Obama made clear at his joint press conference with his counterpart Tran Dai
Quang, Vietnam will face the same restrictions that all other countries face when
trying to procure US arms. And US policy linking arms sales to human rights will
remain in place.
The lifting of the arms embargo is unlikely to lead to any "big ticket" orders for
advanced multirole jet fighters, naval combatants or missiles. Vietnam does not have
the defence budget for that. It is fully committed to integrating six advanced Kiloclass submarines into its fleet. All of Vietnam maintenance, repair and logistics
network and work force are geared to work with Soviet/Russian technology and
weapons systems.
The key to future US-Vietnam defence cooperation may be found in the 2015 Joint
Vision Statement on defence cooperation. It will involve trade in defence items and
cooperation in defence technology leading over time to co-production. Vietnam is
likely to seek modern communications equipment, drones, coastal radar and ISR
technologies related to maritime domain awareness.
Concerning the global arms market: if Vietnam acquired a PC3 Orion, that the US
stripped of sensitive weapon systems, industry sources say Vietnam could go to
Europe and purchase it there.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: What Will Vietnam Ask For Now
That the Embargo is Lifted?, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 24, 2016.

2
All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove
yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the
Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy

Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam: Arms Embargo Lifted,


What Next?
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 24, 2016
[client name deleted]
Need your thoughts for a story on what Vietnam would be interested in procuring
from the US that it cannot get from Russia or any other country.
Is it too late to lift an arms embargo when so much technology is now available from
other countries at cheaper rates?
ANSWER: The lifting of the US arms embargo was more important politically than
substantially. Vietnam has long made the arms embargo an issue in relations. Hanoi
viewed it as political discrimination rooted in the Cold War. Now that the embargo
has been lifted nothing with change substantially. As President Obama made clear at
his joint press conference with his counterpart Tran Dai Quang, Vietnam will face the
same restrictions that all other countries face when trying to procure US arms. And
US policy linking arms sales to human rights will remain in place.
The lifting of the arms embargo is unlikely to lead to any "big ticket" orders for
advanced multirole jet fighters, naval combatants or missiles. Vietnam does not have
the defence budget for that. It is fully committed to integrating six advanced Kiloclass submarines into its fleet. All of Vietnam maintenance, repair and logistics
network and work force are geared to work with Soviet/Russian technology.
The key to future defence cooperation may be found in the 2015 Joint Vision
Statement on defence cooperation. It will involve trade in defence items and
cooperation in defence technology leading over time to co-production. Vietnam is
likely to seek modern communications equipment, drones, coastal radar and ISR
[intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] technologies related to maritime
domain awareness.
Regarding the global arms market: if Vietnam acquired a PC3 Orion that the US
stripped of sensitive weapon systems, industry sources say Vietnam could go to
Europe and purchase it there.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: Arms Embargo Lifted, What Next?,
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 24, 2016. All background briefs are

2
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy

Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam: Assessing Obamas


Visit to Vietnam
Carlyle A. Thayer
May 24, 2016
[client name deleted]
We request your assessment on the outcome of President Obamas visit to Vietnam
with specific reference to the following issues:
Q1- What is the future of Vietnam-US relations after Obama's visit? Any changes?
ANSWER: The presidents of Vietnam and the United States have committed
themselves to increase cooperation across all areas of common interest included in
the 2013 Agreement on Comprehensive Partnership: economic cooperation,
education, science and technology, health, security, national defense and people-topeople exchanges, human rights, humanitarian assistance and dealing with the
legacy of the Vietnam War. They have agreed to set up a high-level mechanism to
oversee bilateral cooperation under this agreement.
Q2- The outcome of Obama's visit to Vietnam with particular reference to the US
rebalance towards Asia Pacific.
ANSWER: Obama's visit to Vietnam was to show case one of the success stories to
his signature policies - the rebalance to Asia. Vietnam is one of Obama's success
stories. In 2013 the two sides signed an Agreement on Comprehensive Partnership
and Vietnam committed itself to signing the TPP. The two sides issued a Joint Vision
Statement on defence cooperation in 2015. President Obama and Secretary General
Nguyen Phu Trong also issued a Joint Vision Statement that among other things
recognised the legitimacy of their differing political systems. Obama's policy of
rebalancing has witnessed increased defence cooperation in a number of areas such
as naval operations to practice implementing CUES, the Code for Unexpected
Encounters at Sea. The US has provided modest assistance to help Vietnam develop
the capacities of its Coast Guard and Fisheries Surveillance Force. The US is assisting
Vietnam's Peacekeeping Center to enable Vietnam to deploy a Level Two Field
Hospital to UN operations in Africa. The two sides have also agreed to cooperate in
dealing with climate change, disease control and wild life trafficking.
Q3- What are the benefits to Vietnam in the field of economic, commercial and trade
relations with US?
ANSWER: Vietnam-US trade has grown enormously over the past decade. At the
same time Vietnam has a growing and large trade deficit with China. Vietnam needs

2
continued access to the US market for its goods. President Obama said that the US
was Vietnam's largest export market. The US ranks number eight among the top ten
investors in Vietnam but not on the scale of Japan or South Korea.
Q4- TPP negotiations.
ANSWER: TPP negotiations have concluded and Vietnam and the US along with ten
other states have signed this agreement. The next step is national ratification by
Vietnam's National Assembly, likely in June, and by the U.S; Congress. There is no
certainty about what the US Congress will do between now and the November
elections and even in the period from the elections to January 2017 when the new
president takes office. President Obama was upbeat on the prospect for ratification.
But during the current primary campaign in the US Hillary Clinton has shifted from
being a supporter of the TPP to a critic. Donald Trump has taken a more extreme
stance, he opposed all multilateral trade agreements. Vietnam must hope for the
best but prepare for the worst.
Q5- What is the position of Vietnam in US foreign policy?
ANSWER: The US is a global power. The US has recognised that Vietnam plays a
constructive role in both regional and global security issues. The US puts Vietnam
among the groups of constructive states that it would like to partner with to address
global issues ranging from climate change to terrorism to non-proliferation of
nuclear weapons.
Q6- How does Vietnam - US relations impact on the region?
ANSWER: If we narrow the focus to Southeast Asia, Vietnam looms higher in US
priorities because of its constructive role in ASEAN, ASEAN-related multilateral
institutions (the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus) and in the East Asian
Summit. Both Vietnam and the United States have a convergence of interest in
dealing with maritime disputes in the South China Sea and with environmental issues
related to the Greater Mekong Region. The US views Vietnam as a partner in
promoting a rules-based regional order that upholds international law including the
UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Q7- The new US leadership's policy towards Vietnam?
ANSWER: There will be continuity in US policy towards Vietnam under an
Administration headed by Hillary Clinton. Clinton is expected to backtrack from her
criticism of the TPP once she is in office. Even if the Republicans regain control of the
Senate she will be able to work with them because they generally support free trade.
Donald Trump represents another kettle of fish. He wants to promote America First
and for the US to be predictably unpredictable. All in-coming US presidents need
roughly one-hundred days in office to review policy, fill political vacancies in the
White House and government, and set priorities. The good news is that Vietnam will
not rank high on the radar screen of the new American president as a problem. The
new US president will have to deal with conflict in the Middle East including Iraq and
Syria, Russia, and China. This means that the legacy left by Obama will be more
continuity than change in relations with Vietnam.

You might also like