THE GROWTH OF POPULATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION

CHAPTER-1

INTRODUCTION
1.1.

Origin of the report

This term paper is prepared as a part of one course of the

4 th semester,
Macroeconomics (B-209). The term paper was assigned to us by our respective course
teacher Md. Shahidul Islam Zahid, Assistant professor, Department of Banking and
Insurance. The topic of this term paper is The relation between the growth of
population and food production in Bangladesh, that was given to show the relationship
between the growth rate of the population and the growth rate of the food production.

1.2.

Objectives of the report

There are two types of objectives that lie behind every successful term paper and
report;

a) Broad Objective:
The broad or the main objective of this term paper is to determine the relationship
between the growth of population and the growth of the food production in Bangladesh.

b) Specific objectives:
To achieve the broad objective the following specific objectives were required to be
achieved:
To get an idea about the current food production in Bangladesh.
To get an overview of the population in the Bangladesh.
To determine the demand and supply gap.
To discuss the method of filling up the food gap.
To measure the strength of the relationship between the growths of the
population and the growth of the food production.

1.3.

Scope of the research

The analysis of the growth of the population and the growth of the food production is
limited in Bangladesh, especially from 1971 to 2011.

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1.4.

Methodology

Correct and smooth completion of term paper requires adherence to some rules and
methodologies. In order to conduct the term paper, We have decided to collect various
types of primary data and secondary data. Different form of statistical configurations
such as table percentages rates and ratios has been used to make the study meaningful
and realistic.
After collection, data was first carefully scrutinized. Then the data was organized as
required. In order to make the study effective and efficient, following two sources of
data and information have been used widely.

(a) Primary information/data

The primary data have been collected by us from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. We
also get the primary information by observing the departments of the BBS. We use our
class lecture as primary source of data.

(b) Secondary Information/data

The secondary information comes from annual report of the BBS, relevant papers/books
and periodicals publication and manual of different departments.
Sources of Data

Primary Sources

Secondary Sources

1. Relevant documents provided by the

officers of BBS.
2. Daily class lectures.

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Page 2

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Annual report of the BBS

Annual report of the MOA
Various documents of the BBS
Search On Internet
BBS website
(www.bbs.gov,bd)

THE GROWTH OF POPULATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION

1.5.

Rational of the study

The study will help get a clear view of the food and population growth of Bangladesh
and analyze their relationship, trend in growth and their effects on the economy. It will
also provide the potential causes of variations of the two growths, interrelationship
between them and effects on food supply in relation to change in population. The report
estimates the future projection of growth rate of food and population and thereby will
help to identify the possible solutions to cope with the challenge of upcoming population
and food supply.

1.6.

Report organization

The main part of the report is divided into four sections;

I.
II.
III.
IV.

1.7.

Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter

1:
2:
3:
4:

The introductory part

Core content Theoretical Overview
Core content findings and analysis.
Conclusion and recommendation.

CC hh aa pp tt ee rr 21
FC nh da i p n t g e s r a4 n d a n a l y s i s
TT hh ee o i nr e t tr io c d a u l c O t vo er y r v p i ea wr t
CC ho na pc lt u e s r i o3 n a n d r e c o m m e n d a t i o n

Limitations
Lack of experience to prepare a macro level term paper; as we are the students
of second year.
In some cases, we could not find the latest data of food production, specially
from 2009 to 2011.
Lack of sufficient knowledge.
Lack of available information and documents to support our study.
Up-to-date information was not available.

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THE GROWTH OF POPULATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION

CHAPTER-2

THEORETICAL OVERVIEW
2.1.

Overview of the food production of Bangladesh

Agriculture based production is the single most important sector of food and
Bangladesh's economy as well. Over 80% of the population is engaged in agriculture.
57% of the labour force is engaged in the crop sector which represents about 78% of
the value addition in the agricultural sector and more than 50% of the population
depends on agriculture for their livelihoods.
Since 1971, growth in the agricultural sector has been led by food grain production
mostly rice. It is evident that rice dominates the food grain sub-sector in Bangladesh. As
the principal crop, rice covers about 75 per cent of the total cropped area, accounts for
70 per cent of the value of total crop output, and constitutes 92 per cent of the total
food grains produced annually in the country.
Bangladesh has made remarkable progress in increasing rice production through
intensification of agriculture, mainly using modern seed, fertilizer, pesticides and
irrigation technologies. This has made the food supply abundant and affordable.
Advances in rice science and technology have enabled Bangladesh to meet the food
needs of a fast growing population. Between 1971-1972 and 2004-2005, rice production
has more than doubled; it increased from 9.8 million metric tons to 25.2 million metric
tons.
The production of fruits, vegetables and all kinds of animal food (meat, egg, milk and
fish) also increased during the last 15 years at varying rates, but not enough to meet
nutritional requirements. Pulses, once known as the poor mans meat as well as oil
seeds, known as the most energy-dense food, showed a rather steep fall in growth.
The 2009/10 wheat crop, currently in its vegetative stage, is enjoying favourable
weather conditions and is estimated to produce 1 million tons from 400,000 hectares of
land. Assuming normal weather conditions, wheat production in 2010/11 is forecast at
1.02 million tons with cultivated area remaining the same. Wheat consumption in
2009/10 is estimated at 3.4 million tons, up by about 10 percent from 2008/09. Wheat
consumption by middle and high income populations in the urban areas is growing
steadily due to changes in food habits and the growth in the hospitality industry. The
growing bakery sector is also contributing to the increase in wheat consumption. While
coarse wheat flour, known as Atta, is sold in bulk in rural areas, urban millers are
marketing packaged refined wheat flour under brand names.

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THE GROWTH OF POPULATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION

2.1.1.

Major food items

Major food items in Bangladesh are rice, wheat, pulses, potato, vegetables and
fish. These food items contribute almost 85% of the total calorie and protein intake.
Rice and wheat alone contribute to 71% and 53% of the total per capita calorie and
protein intake respectively (BBS, 2008).

2.1.2.

Availability of Food

Availability of food is determined by domestic production, external trade and the

efficiency of distribution through market and other channels. Bangladesh has made
steady
progress
in the expansion of domestic food production. Total food grain
production increased from less than 10.0 million tons in the early 1970s to more than
27.0 million tons in 2008-09. This growth in production has been achieved through
expansion of irrigation facilities, spread of modern varieties and increase in cropping
intensity. There has also been substantial improvement in the availability of food.
Total supply of food available in Bangladesh is the sum of the total quantity of food
stuffs produced plus total quantity imported and aid received and adjusted for any
change in stocks. On the utilization side, a distinction is made between the quantity
exported (while nil in the case of food grain, pulses and potato), fed to livestock, used
for seed, put to manufacture for food use and other uses, losses during storage and
transformation (all of these account 10% losses from supply available) and food supply
available for human consumption. The per capita supply of each food item available for
human consumption is obtained by dividing its respective quantity by related data on
the population in respective years.
Table reveals that the per capita availability of food grain, fruits, fish and animal
product increased slowly. In 1991-93, pulses, potatoes, vegetables were 13.05gms,
25.54gms and 32.15gms while in 2006-08, it were 13.15gms, 73.70gms and 53.97gms
respectively. But fruit availability decreased over the periods. Fish, meat, milk and egg
availability shows increasing trends
Item
1971-73
1981-83
1991-93
2003-05
2006-08
Food grain
367.60
401.60
419.44
477.76
535.89
Pulses
15.07
16.65
13.05
13.31
13.15
Potatoes
25.04
26.28
25.54
55.39
73.70
Vegetable
38.98
31.09
32.15
39.83
53.97
s
Fruits
48.15
37.53
29.49
31.61
33.70
Fish
31.07
20.67
21.59
34.51
40.82
Meat
9.31
6.79
7.83
8.61
9.86
Milk
31.95
31.95
37.86
41.96
44.38
Eggs
1.83
1.7
1.77
2.52
3.56

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Table: Per capita food availability

The per capita availability of food grain in Bangladesh shows considerable improvement
during the recent years. According to FPMU (2003), the per capita minimum food grain
requirement is 454gms/capita/day (BBS, 2009). In 2000/01, per capita consumption for
the first time has exceeded the per capita requirement. This means that there is no
consumption gap of food grain in recent years in Bangladesh. The entire table is
annexed to the end of the report.[Table (i)]

2.1.3.

Domestic production: Growth in food grain production

Analysis shows that growth rates of food grain production in 1980/81 to 1989/90 were
lower at 2.1% a year, but in 1971/72to 1979/80 growth accelerated to 3.80% a year
which was higher than other periods. The decline in the production growth rate in
1980/81 to 1989/90 can be attributed to a decline in the area growth rate, but in
1990/91 to 1999/2000 the growth in yield per hectare accelerated from 2.5% to 3.6%.
The long term (1971/72 to 2008/09) growth in food grain production was 3.0%, to which
wheat contributed a large share with a production growth rate of 7.3%. Bangladesh
achieved an impressive growth in wheat production during the period 1971/72 to
1979/80 (26.80%), which was more than ten times higher than the overall growth rate
of food grain production; both area and yield per hectare contributed around 50% to this
growth. The average
growth in rice production was 2.9% per year in 1971/72to
2008/09, of which 93% was contributed by yield growth. This impressive growth rate
was due to the investment in irrigation, increased fertilizer use and adoption of HYV. In
between 1971/72 to 1979/80 and 1990/91 to 1999/2000 there were substantial
fluctuations in the growth of different varieties of rice production (Table 1). The overall
growth rate of area under food grain was 0.3% in 1971/72 to 2008/09. This implies that
increases in production need to come mainly from yield increases.
Category
Growth rates (%)
Production
Aus
Aman
Boro
Total
1971/72-1979/80
3.6
3.7
1.4
3.2
1980/81-1989/90
-2.2
0.8
8.3
2.3
1990/91-1999/2000
-3.0
-0.4
5.7
2.0
2000/01-2008/09
-1.4
0.9
7.3
4.2
1971/72-2008/09
-1.9
1.7
6.7
2.9
Table: Production of Rice and wheat, (BBS, 2009)

Total food grain

Wheat
26.8
-1.4
7.6
-7.9
5.5

3.8
2.1
2.4
3.6
3.0

Fish, meat, milk and egg production: Non-cereals are chief sources of protein,
mineral and vitamin which remain far below the actual requirements to provide the
balanced diet. The nutritional value of fish occupies a significant position in the dietary
habits of Bangladeshi people. Fish production increased from 792.67 thousand M. tons
in 1971/72 to 2563.30 thousand M. tons in 2008/09. Meat, milk and egg production has
also increased significantly over the 38 years, but their demand has been growing
faster, and therefore, the shortage is still high.

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THE GROWTH OF POPULATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION

Trend of production
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
Thousand M. tons

1000
500
0

Table: Trend of production

The tables showing the amount of the production of Wheat, Maize, Barley and Other
Cereals; Pulses; Spices & Potato; Vegetables and fruits from 1971-72to2005-06 are
annexed to the end of the report. [Table (ii), (iii),(iv),(v),(vi)]

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2.1.4.

Impediment to the domestic production

Bangladesh has not become independent yet to meet the huge demand for food of her
vast population by producing domestically. Causes are many that why this country still
lags behind:
Poverty
Regional variation
Technological issues
Climate change impact

2.1.5.

Future projection of rice production

Supply and demand projections are made for the years 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030
under various scenarios by World Bank and BBS. Under alternative conditions that
capture land availability constraints facing rice cultivation in Bangladesh, rice supply in
2015 is expected to be in the range of 31.2 to 35.2 million tons, and it is likely to grow
to 39 million tons by 2030. Household direct demand projections are made fewer than
three scenarios on the growth of real per capita income4.2 percent, 3.6 percent, and
3.0 percent. Assuming constant prices, per capita household demand for the year 2030
for rice are projected to be in the range of 183.7 to 192.3 kilograms (kg) per capita per
year. The corresponding forecasts for wheat are in the range of 6.5 to 7.1kg per capita
per year in 2030. Combining these with alternative population forecasts from the
government of Bangladesh and the United Nations Department of Economic and social
Affairs, the total direct demand for rice in 2030 is projected to be in the range of 31.3to
42.0 million tons, up from 26.8 to 29.2 million tons in 2015. For wheat, the projection
for 2030 is 1.1 million to 1.5 million tons. Adding indirect demand requirements to this,
the total demand for rice in 2030 is expected to be in the range of 34.8 million and 52.5
million tons. The supply and demand projections for rice are then compared, to assess
the likely surplus/deficit situation. The estimates show that Bangladesh can face either a
surplus or a deficit in rice, depending upon the prevailing supply and demand scenario
and intermediate demand requirements. The surplus in 2030 could be about 4.2 million
tons, while the deficit could be as high as13.7 million tons. Our projections also show
that surpluses, if any, could increase until 2020, after which they are likely to become
smaller, which can be attributed to land availability constrains that will increasingly
begin to affect production growth under current technologies. In contrast, deficit
projections show a steady rise over time, reflecting the sharp rise in demand under the
high population growth scenario.
Projected demand (in terms of rice) and production (both in terms of paddy and rice)
from 2011-12 up to 2030 are shown in Table. The projected demand for rice is based on
estimated population, income and income elasticises calculated for the said period. The
aggregate demand for rice will be around 25.73 million tons in 2014-115 and 34.8

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million tons in 2030. On the other hand, projected production for the corresponding
years are shown in the table both in terms of paddy and rice.

Years

Approx. projected demand for rice

(million tons)

2011-12
24.78
2012-13
25.10
2013-14
25.41
2014-15
25.73
2030
34.8
Table: Projected demand and supply of rice, BBS & WB

2.1.6.

Projected Production
(million tons)
In paddy

In rice

39.63
40.56
41.49
42.42
-

26.16
26.77
27.39
28.00
39.00

Contribution of production to the economy

Agriculture remains the most important sector of the Bangladesh economy. It

contributed 29% to the national GDP and employs 63% of the population (MOA, 2011).
In 2007-08 fiscal years, agricultural sector contributed 6.99%ages of the total export
earnings. In the first nine months of 2009, exports were 651million USD, which
accounted for 5.59% of the total export earnings over the period (Bangladesh
Economics Review, 2009).
According to the Bangladesh Economics Review 2008, the total GDP in 2007-08 fiscal
years was more than five thousand billion Taka (Tk. 5458.2 billion), whereas the
contribution of Agricultural and Forestry sectors was more than fifty thousand crore
Taka (Tk.50157 crore) and the GDP growth rate on that fiscal years was 6.19%. In the
analysis of the last few years data, it was observed that GDP growth rates followed an
increasing trend and it was more than 5.5% from 2001.

2.2.

Overview of the population

Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries, currently ranks 7th in the
world with a population of 142.319 million. It is expected to reach 233.2+ million by
2050 according to several researches including BBS, WB, USG. Bangladesh experienced
rapid population growth in the post Second World War period due to improvements in
public health and sharp reductions in mortality from famine and certain diseases. The
population has more than doubled since70thyears. About 27 percent of the population
is urban and 73 percent rural.
Due to widespread poverty, children (40%) and mothers (30%) suffer from moderate to
severe malnutrition. Malnutrition is also a reason for the death of nearly a quarter of
children under five.
The Bangladesh population in mid-2007 was around 147 million. The precise figure
depends on assumptions about rates of growth since the adjusted census figure of

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129,247,233 for 22 January 2001. The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) indicates
an average rate of natural increase of 1.5% annually since the census. However, these
figures from the BBS are almost certainly under estimates of crude birth rate (CBR) (2021/1,000) and crude death rate (CDR) (5-6/1,000). The BBS rates would project a
population of just over 141 million whereas the Population Reference Bureau (PRB) rate
of natural growth of 1.9% per annum is more likely based on assumed CBR of 27/1,000
and CDR of 8/1,000, resulting in a projected population of 147 million. If we highlight on
the population of Bangladesh, we find:

The density of the Bangladesh population is much higher than any other mega
country.
In 2007, Bangladesh was only halfway up the population growth curve and will
reach more than 250 million later this century. Most of the increased population
will be urban, and much of Bangladesh will essentially become a city state.
The year that Bangladesh reaches replacement fertility is not as critical lowering
fertility to less than replacement. Other Asian countries have accomplished this.
The number of children born each year is now stabilized at slightly less than 4
million. Age of marriage has not increased in Bangladesh as it has in other Asian
countries.
The elderly (>60 years) will grow in population from 7 to 65 million this century,
and this will make many demands and different demands on the health system.
There has been a major reduction in overall numbers of child deaths over the last
three decades. Part of this reduction is due to reduced fertility, and part is due to
child-survival interventions.

2.2.1.

Population at a glance

2011
Age dependency ratio; old (% of working-age population)
7.15
Age dependency ratio (% of working-age population)
54.56
Age dependency ratio; young (% of working-age population)
47.41
Birth rate; crude (per 1000 people)
20.33
Death rate; crude (per 1000 people)
6.08
Population ages 0-14 (% of total)
30.68
Population ages 15-64 (% of total)
64.70
Population ages 65 and above (% of total)
4.62
Population; female (% of total)
49.40
Population growth (annual %)
1.20
Total Population
150493658
Table: Population of Bangladesh at a glance, prepared by World bank

2.2.2.

Population: Trend and Estimation

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Population of Bangladesh is increasing at a rate of two million (1.2%) every year and the
total population will be 243millions in the next 40years (2050), if the current trend
continues. Therefore, Bangladesh will require more than 55.0 million tons of rice by the
year 2050. During this time total
rice area will have shrunk due to pressure from
cultivating high value crops, urban and industrial development and expansion of human
settlement area.
As shown in Graphs below, the population of Bangladesh followed an exponential
increase trend during the past century. The country is now experiencing a demographic
transition and the continuous decline of the natural growth rate should lead to a lower
population increase in the coming decades.
Time period
Population growth rate (%)
1971/72-1979/80
2.67
1980/81-1989/90
2.35
1990/91-1999/2000
1.73
2000/01-2008/09
2.11
1971/72-2008/09
2.50
Table: Growth rate of population from 1971 to 2009

160
142.32

140
124.36

120
106.31

100
Population in Million

87.12

80
71.1

71.48

60
40
20
0
1971

1974

1981

1991

Chart: population in million according to national census

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2001

2011

THE GROWTH OF POPULATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION

Population growth rate

2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
Growth (%)

1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Chart: Last ten years growth rate.

The country has made significant strides in lowering its population growth rates from an
average of 2.7 percent in the 1970s to around 1.2percent today (2011) through
successful campaigns to promote smaller families. Bangladesh population growth rate
has not declined much during the last one decade or so owing to stagnation in fertility
and mortality with the result that there has been little change in population growth rate.
It has been hovering around 1.7% to 1.6% during the preceding decade. The estimated
crude birth rate was 20.33/1000 population (BDHS, 2007) and crude death rate (CDR) is
estimated to be 6.08/1000 population.
Death matters no less than birth indeed more. As public health measures are likely to
further improve, deaths decline particularly among the infants and thus, more babies
will live to grow up. So a countrys population becomes more youthful as in the case
now in Bangladesh. More young adults mean more births. Birth rate may decline further
through family planning program efforts reinforced by non-family planning measures
like female education, skill training, use of media etc. All these measures will eventually
help create a conductive environment to reduce birth and death rates leading to
population stabilization. But when? In seeking answer to this question, analysts offer a
range of projections. Variant 1 assumes replacement level fertility (i.e. just over 2
children) in 2012. Variant 2 and variant 3 assume the same fertility level in 2016 and
2021 respectively.
The timing of population stabilization depends on the time when replacement level
fertility will be achieved. In our present case, if Bangladesh can achieve NRR =1 by
2016, population will stabilize by 2070 at around230 millions, followed by a stationary
population in next 1215 years, (i.e. number of births will be equal to number of deaths

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and resultant growth rate is zero). In medium variant projection, status of stationary
population in Bangladesh is likely to be achieved around 2086 and thereafter, number of
deaths will exceed number of births i.e. minus growth rate will begin which will
eventually decelerate the countrys population as is the case with Russia, Germany and
some of the European countries now. The deceleration process (i.e. minus-growth rate)
in Bangladesh shall start according to variant-2after 2080, and by this time, population
shall grow upto 240million. A great deal of population momentum is coming from low
income families, such as poor, ultra poor and other lower income groups who together
comprise 50percent of the society. These are the people among whom infant mortality
and maternal mortality rates are the highest. Total fertility rate is twice as much of the
upper, middle and high income groups. They are the ones who have very little access to
education beyond primary health care services and other benefits which government
and society usually offer to the individuals. So if the goal of replacement level fertility is
to be achieved any time in the next decade, our policies, programmes and resources
should be directed towards their welfare.
A more important question is what the future population growth will be. Until the United
Nations Population Division (UNPD) released the 2004 revision of population projections
for all the countries of the world, there was a general agreement that Bangladesh would
reach 218 million by 2050 and finally stabilize at around 260 million in mid-next century.
However, the 2004 revision by the UN PD proposes a pessimistic upgrading of the 2050
figure to 243 million. This seems excessively high. The PRB estimate is 231 million for
mid-century, which is more realistic, although a new set of Bangladesh population
projections should be produced, taking into account the recent demographic events.

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Fi
gure: Approx. population of Bangladesh in 2050

2.2.3.

Causes of increasing population

Bangladesh has decreased the total fertility rate significantly since independence in
1971. For the past five or 6 years the birth rate has been fairly stable, though estimates
for 2009 predict a decrease. The population growth rate estimate for 2011 is 1.20%
according to the CIA World Fact book. Of course, the lower life expectancy in
Bangladesh means that the crude birth rate is higher.
Many factors contribute to the high birth rate in Bangladesh. These include:

Low literacy rates, particularly among women and in rural areas

Pervasive extreme poverty: birth control, while inexpensive, may still be

unaffordable

Religious environment: birth control is often incompatible with Muslim beliefs

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Women's place in society - while a woman may desire to use birth control, she
may be forbidden to do so by her husband.

A strong cultural preference for boys may lead some women to have more
children than they would like. Women who only have girls may be shunned by
their families, divorced, or abandoned. The husband may take a second wife
hoping to have a son.

Ignorance of birth control methods

Ignorance of basic biology and the "facts of life."

Difficulty accessing birth control for some parts of the rural population

Bangladesh has come a long way in terms of controlling population. Various modern
birth control methods are readily available in shops and are often provided without cost
by NGOs at area clinics.

2.2.4.

Effects of increasing population on demand for food

Potential increase in population growth and its impact on rice productivity, above all
food security, has been a major concern in recent years. Population growth rate in
Bangladesh is two million people per year and the population will reach 243 million
(approx.) by 2050, going by the current trend. Bangladesh will require more than 55.0
million tons of rice per year to feed its people by the year 2050. In 2007-2008. More
than 6.5 core people would be deprived of the rice requirement by the year 2050, which
is more than 45% compared to the total population in 2006-07 owing to the combined
effects of increasing temperature and population(35% due to population growth alone).
In the coming decades, agriculture of Bangladesh will face a great challenge to feed its
growing population as the food demand will increase with increasing population.
Bangladesh, as a whole, still has a very low level of average nutrition. Many households
and individuals can not have a balanced diet, even in good production years. According
to the World Bank, approximately 33 million of the 150 million people in Bangladesh can
not afford an average daily intake of more than 1800 kilocalories (the minimum
standard for nutrition asset by the World Food Program). For most people in developing
countries, the daily average calorie intake is 2,828 kilocalories. On the contrary, in
Bangladesh, that average is only 2,190 kilocalories (Foshol, 2009).
Rice is the staple food of about 135 million people of Bangladesh. It provides nearly 48%
of rural employment, about two-third of total calorie supply and about one-half of the
total protein intakes of an average person in the country. Rice sector contributes onehalf of the agricultural GDP and one-sixth of the national income in Bangladesh.

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Almost all of the 13 million farm families of the country grow rice. Rice is grown on
about 10.5 million hectares which has remained almost stable over the past three
decades.
About 75% of the total cropped area and over 80% of the total irrigated area is planted
to rice. Thus, rice plays a vital role in the livelihood of the people of Bangladesh. Total
rice production in Bangladesh was about 10.59 million tons in the year 1971 when the
countrys population was only about 70.88 millions. However, the country is now
producing about 25.0 million tons to feed her 135 million people. This indicates that the
growth of rice production was much faster than the growth of population. This increased
rice production has been possible largely due to the adoption of modern rice varieties
on around 66% of the rice land which contributes to about 73% of the countrys total
rice production.
However, there is no reason to be complacent. The population of Bangladesh is still
growing by two million every year and may increase by another 30 millions over the
next 20 years. Thus Bangladesh will require about 27.26 million tons of rice for the year
2020. During this time total rice area will also shrink to 10.28 million hectares. Rice yield
therefore, needs to be increased from the present 2.74 to 3.74 t/h a.

Macroeconomics

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THE GROWTH OF POPULATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION

CHAPTER 3

ANALYSIS
3.

AND FINDINGS

Trend in net food demanded and supplied for the people

The population of Bangladesh in 1971 was 71.1 million, which over the years increased
to 146.1million in 2008 (BBS, 2009). During this period, the net food grain demand was
increased from 12.02 million metric tons (Mmt) to 24.22 Mmt which is double of the
year 1971. The rice production also increased steadily along with net food demand
(Rice+Wheat) and reached 28.18 Mmt in 2008. It means the country has attained
marginally self- sufficiency in food by rice alone.
The overall food grain production growth rate is higher than population growth rate from
1971/72 to 2008/09. In 1970s, 1990s and 2000s the food grain production growth rates
were higher than population growth rates. But in 1980s the population growth rate was
higher than food grain production growth rate. It was due to flood and other natural
disaster in the country of that time. Growth of area, production and yield of other major
food crops: The growth rate for production of pulses in 1971/72 to 2008/09 was 1.01%.
In 1971/72 to 1979/80 and 2000/01 to 2008/09 both area and production growth rate
for pulses was negative. It was mainly due to shift land from pulses to
Boro cultivation. From 1980/81 to 1989/90 area, yield and production of potatoes
showed negative growth rate. The production growth rate of vegetable showed
increasing trend over the period.

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THE GROWTH OF POPULATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION

Comparison of Population and production (%)

Growth

4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0

3.8

3.6
3

2.67
2.1

2.35

2.4
1.73

2.11

2.5

The table showing the net food demanded and supplied in Bangladesh from 1971-2010
in Bangladesh is presented below (BBS):

Year

Population(
mn)

Food
requirement

Total
production

Deficit

1971-72
1972-73
1973-74
1974-75
1975-76
1976-77
1977-78
1978-79
1979-80
1980-81
1981-82
1982-83
1983-84
1984-85
1985-86
1986-87
1987-88

71.1
74.30
76.40
78.00
79.90
81.80
83.70
85.60
87.60
89.91
91.90
93.90
96.00
98.10
100.30
102.50
104.70

12019.73
12301.19
12648.87
12913.76
13228.33
13542.90
13857.46
14172.03
14503.15
14885.60
15215.06
15546.19
15893.86
16241.54
16605.78
16970.01
17334.25

8744.03
8835.99
10461.24
9926.29
11297.42
10456.55
11590.98
11612.20
11819.10
13241.78
12907.55
13464.60
13835.08
14242.69
14239.16
14591.07
14558.26

3275.7

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Page 18

3465.2
2187.63
2987.47
1930.91
3086.35
2266.48
2559.83
2684.05
1643.82
2307.51
2081.59
2058.78
1998.85
2366.62
2378.94
2775.99

THE GROWTH OF POPULATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION

1988-89
1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2010

3.1.

106.80
108.90
111.00
113.00
115.00
117.00
119.00
122.10
124.30
126.50
128.10
129.80
131.50
133.45
135.00
136.20
138.05
139.10
148.10

17681.92
18029.60
18377.28
18708.40
19039.52
19370.65
19701.77
20215.01
20579.24
20943.48
21208.37
21489.83
21771.28
22094.13
22350.75
22549.42
22855.71
23029.55
24519.60

14650.49
16449.04
16615.89
17085.40
17263.12
16965.68
16010.03
16877.61
18015.31
18329.30
19361.75
22129.49
23791.35
23058.52
23788.38
24477.93
23420.69
24569.27
27587.04

3031.43
1580.56
1761.39
1623.0
1776.4
2404.97
3691.74
3337.4
2563.93
2615.18
1846.62
(639.66)
(2020.07)
(964.39)
(1437.63)
(1928.51)
(564.98)
(1539.72)
(3067.42)

Trend in filling the food gap out: Import and Food Aid

To meet the huge demand for foods, government has to depend on two primary sources
of availability of foods besides domestic production; Imports and food aids respectively.
Both the sources are highlighted below.

3.1.1 Imports of major food items:

Imports of food grain in Bangladesh were dominated by public sectorin1971/72-1979/80
and 1981/82-1989/90. Total food grain imports are composed of rice and wheat. Table
reveals that wheat constituted the major part of imports for all the decades. The share
of wheat in total imports increased from 70% in 1971/72-1979/80 to 95% in 2001/022008/09. It is due to comparatively cheaper and more available on the international
market. Public food grain imports declined 46% during the 1971/72-2008/09. In 1992,
the Bangladesh government liberalized the markets, allow the private participants to
import agricultural food crops. As a result large number of importers have started their
business who buy, store, transport and sell food grain throughout the country. Table3 in
dictates that over the last two decades the private import of food grain has increased
dramatically. Out of total private food grain import both rice and wheat import
increased of that time.
Period

Macroeconomics

Public imports
(000M. tons)

% of total
import of

Page 19

Private imports
(000M. tons)

% of total
import

THE GROWTH OF POPULATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION

Rice

Whea
t

Total
food
grain
1689.2

food grain
Rice Wheat

1971/72508. 1181.
30.1
1979/80
0
2
1980/81266. 1571. 1838.0 14.5
1989/90
5
5
1990/91131. 1085. 1216.7 10.8
1999/2000
1
6
2000/0181.6 1530. 1611.7
5.1
2008-09
1
Table: Imports of major food items, BBS.

Rice

Whea
t

69.9

85.5
89.2
94.9

Ric
e

Whea
t

Total
food
grain
-

677.
3
718.
4

401.
6
667.
0

1078.9

62.
8
51.
9

37.2

1385.4

48.1

3.1.1.1. Imports of other crops and animal products:

In addition to decreased in food grain imports , the import of other food crops, fruits
and animal products increased over the decades. Due to decreased in area under
pulses production, the pulses import increased from 2.54 thousand M. tons in 1981-83
to 522.92 thousand M. tons in 2006-08. Potatoes and vegetables and milk import
increased rapidly (Table 4).

Volume of imports 000 tons (Three years average)

Food items
1971-73
1981-83
1991-93
2003-05
2006-2008
Pulses
0
2.54
72.38
363.47
522.92
Potatoes
43.27
30.5
52.14
100.16
150.22
Vegetables
0
7.17
86.3
418.13
300.4
Fruits
0
18.67
25.91
182.01
254.33
Fish
0.13
0.01
0.07
3.39
5.24
Meat
0
0.01
0.73
4.17
9.71
Milk
88.89
217.55
281.61
307.77
342.70
Egg
0
0
0
0.06
0
Table: Imports of other food items, BBS.

3.1.2. Food aid:

Food aid has played an important role in meeting the domestic demand for food.
Bangladesh has received a large amount of food aid since its independence in 1971 and
the flow of food aid has a significant role in shaping the food policy. It is showed from
the Table 5 that the amount of total food aid decreased over the year. Both rice and
wheat food aid declined. Presently, increase in domestic production has resulted in the
downward trend in food aid. Therefore, this share has decreased to less than 35% of
total imports of food grain with wheat accounting for 98% of the total food aid.

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THE GROWTH OF POPULATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION

Period

Food aid (000 M. tons)

Rice
Wheat
Total food
grain
136.8
1021.6
1158.4

1971/721979/80
1980/811989/90
1990/911999/2000
2000/012008-09
1971/722008/09
Table:Food aid of

3.2.

Food aid (%)

Rice
Wheat
11.8

88.2

93.0

1128.9

1221.9

7.6

92.4

14.3

944.3

958.6

1.5

98.5

14.8

293.8

308.7

4.8

95.2

83.5

851.8

935.3

8.9

91.1

rice and wheat

Interrelation between population and food growth

If everything remains the same, the general assumption about the relationship between
the growth of food production and population is; if the population increases the food
production will have to increase too, because the additional people will need food more.
The more increase in the growth of the population, the more increase in the growth of
production of food should be. Here, population is independent, but the production of
food has to depend on the growth of the population.

3.3. he coefficient of correlation (R) and the Co efficient

of determination (R 2)
To measure the co-relationship between the growth rate of population and the
growth rate of food production, we take the average growth rates of population and
food production from 1971 to 2009. For simplicity in our analysis, we take mainly
two foods; rice and wheat. The table showing the growth rates lies below:

Growth of
population
Growth rate
of food
production

1971/721979/80
2.67%

1980/811989/90
2.35%

1990/911999/2000
1.73%

2000/012008/09
2.11%

3.8%

2.1%

2.4%

3.6%

3.3.1) The coefficient of correlation (R)

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THE GROWTH OF POPULATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION

Model Summary
Mode

Adjusted R

Std. Error

Square

Square

of the

R Square

Estimate

Change

Change

.465

.217

-.175

Change Statistics

.92141

.217

.553

df1

df2

Sig. F
Change

.535

a. Predictors: (Constant), Population growth

The coefficient of correlation describes the strength of the relationship of two sets of
ratio scaled variables. It shows, how well one variable can be explained by another. It
can assume any value from -1.00 to +1.00.A correlation co efficient of -1.00 or +1.00
indicates perfect correlation. In terms of the relationship between the growth rate of
population and the growth rate offood production; rice and wheat in Bangladesh from
1971 to 2009, the coefficient of correlation is 0.445. That means, the relationship the
growth rate of population and the growth rate of food production is almost perfect and
direct and the slope is positive.

3.3.2) Co efficient of determination (R2)

The coefficient of determination is the primary way by which we can measure the extent
of the association that exists between two variables. For the growth rate of population
and the growth rateof food production, the coefficient of determination is 0.217. We can
say, the variation in the growth rate of population explain 21.7% of the variation in the
growth rate of food production.

CHAPTER 4

RECOMMENDATION
4.1.

AND CONCLUSION

Recommendation

There are two divergent views concerning the correlation between agricultural
development and demographic change or in particular fertility. Malthus (1798)
a r g u e d that the scope f o r food production to outpace population growth was small,
the extra food and income would increase population and labor supply per efficiency
unit of land. This would wipe out the gains made through higher yields as the food
availability per person would be depressed along with wage rates. So following
derivatives are essential to ensure balance between population and food supply.
Agricultural development through GR (Green Revolution) technologies
would increase food supply to a considerable level

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THE GROWTH OF POPULATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION

Redistributing purchasing power and resources toward those who are
undernourished" can alleviate hunger
Intervention in markets, public distribution, direct sales, increase in import
and purchase from local markets for the maintenance of national food
security stocks which aims to increase welfare of the poor.
Possible measurements (Birth control program, family planning, reducing
early marriage, raising mass awareness etc ) should be taken to check
population growth
Home-stead food production should be increased.
Crop scientists should place more emphasis on the development of heat and
drought resistance varieties and the feasibility of manipulation through
modern genetic techniques.
Analyze the output gap for food production and estimate the required Land,
Labor and Capital to mitigate the gap.

IV.2.

Conclusion

Impacts of population change on food production and food security are global concerns,
but it is more so for a country like Bangladesh. Agriculture is under the gun mainly due
to increasing demand for food from the growing population. The prospects of global
climate change make this problem a priority for Bangladesh. Economic growth rate in
future will be hampered. Cultivation area has not considerably changed in the last few
decades in relation to population change.
Domestic food production has an important role to play for food security in Bangladesh.
Although the acreage of food grain production shrinkage, but production of food grain
increases due to increase in per acre yield and better management of post-harvest
losses.
Sustainable increase of production for food security will require efforts to enhance the
capacity of the food production system to adapt to population change. Technical
options for adaptation and mitigation are available, which should be properly applied in
the agricultural sector. Policy support to research and development to develop and
transfer appropriate and efficient technologies, will be vital for the realization of such
measures for sustainable food production. Above all public awareness of the impact of
increasing population on the agricultural production deserves consideration as a
priority.

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THE GROWTH OF POPULATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION

References:

1. Bangladesh bureau of Statistics (BBS), http://www.bbs.gov.bd

2. Statistical Yearbook BBS, 2010
3. Bangladesh Data Sheet, BBS
4. Statistical Pocket Book BBS, 2010
5. Gender Statistics Bangladesh BBS, 2008
6. GDP of Bangladesh at 2007-08 to 2010-11, BBS
7. Agricultural statistics yearbook BBS, 2010
8. Survey on Volunteerism in Bangladesh BBS, 2010
9. Monthly Statistical Bulletin Bangladesh February BBS, 2011
10. Sectoral Need-based Projections in Bangladesh BBS, 2006
11. Estimate of Major Crops-2009-2010, BBS
12. Parishankhan Barta, July to September, BBS
13. Estimate of Minor Crops-2009-2010, BBS
14. Census of Agriculture 2008 (National Series), BBS
15. World Bank (WB), http://www.worldbank.org, http://data.worldbak.org

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THE GROWTH OF POPULATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION

16. M. E. A. Begum and Luc DHaese, Supply and demand situations for major crops
and food items in Bangladesh, Bangladesh Agriculture University 8(1): 91
102,20.

Macroeconomics

Page 25