Vietnam

and the Major Powers:

Mul5lateralising Interna5onal Defence
and Security Coopera5on

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presenta5on to the Yusof Ishak ISEAS
Singapore, June 6, 2016

Viet Nam: Foreign Rela5ons

Multilaterialisation and diversification

7th National Party Congress (1991)

China a friend, US strategic enemy

Resolution No. 3 (July 2002)

i tc cooperate/i tng struggle

Resolution No. 8 (July 2003 revised 2013)

Independence, self-reliance, cooperation and development

$32.3
billion
decit with
China

$30.9
billion
surplus
with the US

Viet Nam
China US
Trade
Rela5ons

Vietnams Security Concerns

Democratic freedom,
religious freedom, and
human rights have been
abused by hostile forces to
undermine the great
national solidarity and to
incite violence and
separatism in some areas
of the country disputes
over sovereignty, sovereign
rights and jurisdiction over
the territories in the East
Sea non-traditional
security issues such as:

Illegal drug and weapons

trafficking
Piracy
Transnational crime
Terrorism
Illegal immigration and
migration
Environmental
degradation
Pandemics
Climate change

White Paper 2009, 17.

Strategic and
Comprehensive
Partnershps

USA
2013

China
2009

Russia
2001

Viet
Nam

India
2006

Japan
2007

Cam Ranh Bay Interna5onal Port visited by

naval ships from Singapore, Japan, France and
India in 2016. China invited March 2016.

Percentage of Government Spending

on Defence

Growth in Defence Spending -v-

Growth in GDP (annual % change)

forecast to average 5.8 per cent growth to

Capital city
Hanoi
2019, according to the IMF.
Popula on
Land size

90.6 million
331 210 km2

fer liser, tyres, oil, coal, steel,

paper, coee and rice

Economy

Defence spending

Over the past 10 years, Vietnam averaged

6.2 per cent annual economic growth. In
2014, the economy grew by 5.5 per cent,
supported by declining ina on, export
growth producing current account surpluses,
and increasing foreign investment, especially
in the manufacturing sector. Sluggish growth
in private sector credit in part reects
subdued domes c demand and eorts to
reduce the level of non-performing loans in
the banking sector. Increasing foreign
investment, growth in trading partners
economies, an increasing working age
popula on and growth in private
consump on will drive economic ac vity over
the next ve years. Vietnams economy is
forecast to average 5.8 per cent growth to
2019, according to the IMF.

Vietnams 2014 defence budget was

91tr (US$4.2bn), represen ng a 3.4 per cent
real increase on the 2013 defence budget.
Since January 2014, Vietnam has received the
rst three of six KILO-class submarines, with
the remainder to be delivered by 2016. In
May and September, Vietnam took delivery of
its third and fourth TT400TP-class patrol
boats. In July, it was reported that Vietnam
may be acquiring three Airbus C295 transport
aircra , and Vietnams navy received two
indigenously made MOLNIYA-class corve es.
In August 2013, Vietnam purchased 12 Sukhoi
Su-30MK2 ghter jets from Russia, which
were to be delivered in 20142015.

Source: Defence Intelligence Organisa5on, Asia Pacic Defence Economic Trends 2015

Vietnam-Russian Federa5on
Strategic Partnership (2001)
Eight Areas of Coopera5on
1. Poli5cal-diploma5c,
2. Military equipment and technology,
3. Oil and gas coopera5on,
4. Energy coopera5on for hydro and nuclear
power,
5. Trade and investment,
6. Science and technology,
7. Educa5on and training, and
8. Culture and tourism

Gradual Force Modernisa5on

Project 1241 Molniya Corveae

Svetlyak-class Fast Attack Craft

S-300 PMU1 (SA-10 Grumble)

Gepard Guided
Missile Frigate

Gradual Force Modernisa5on

Su-30 MKK

Bastion Anti-Ship Missile

Gradual Force Modernisation

Vietnam has taken delivery of
five Enhanced Kilo-class
submarines: HQ 182 Hanoi, HQ
183 Ho Chi Minh City, HQ 184
Hai Phong, HQ 185 Khanh Hoa
and HQ 186 Da Nang; the sixth
HQ 187 Vung Tau Ba Ria to be
delivered this year

Arms Procurements
1 BPS-500 Fast Aaack
Crac
14 Project 1241
Tarantul FAC
12 Su-27S Flanker B
8 Project 10412
Svetlyak Patrol Crac
36 Su-30MK Flanker
6 Gepard Frigates

6 Project 636E Kilo

submarines
An5-ship missiles
P-15M/SS-N-2C
Kh-35 Uran/SS-N-25
Kh-31 A1/AS-17
Yakhont./SS-N-26
3M-54 Klub/SS-N-27

3M-14E Klub LACM

Vietnam-Russia: Comprehensive
Strategic Partnership (2012)
2013 Exchange visits of Defence Ministers
March: agreement of military technology, PME
(scholarships to be increased from 100 annually, and
elds of training expanded), 2008 annual defence
dialogue raised to vice minister level, and arms sales
August: ve-year MOU exchanges, annual dialogue,
military technology, PME (grad and post-grad
scholarships 600 in 2014, 790 in 2015), upgrade
digi5se and assist in maintaining weapons, joint
venture service, sale of 12 Sukhoi Su-30MKs

Vietnam-Russia
Comprehensive Partnership
Defence Minister Shoigo visits Cam Ranh Bay (3/2013)
Russian special access to Cam Ranh Bay
Russian Il78 refueling tankers (2014)
Ship visits no5fy prior to arrival (Nov 2014)

New Defence Minister Ngo Xuan Lich makes rst

visit to Moscow in April 2016
Fulll defence agreements already signed
Mutual support in interna5onal fora
Coopera5on in military training
Rely on Russia for weaponry

Vietnam-India
Strategic Partnership 2007
Defence and Security Coopera5on

1. Strategic Dialogue at vice ministerial (annual);

2. Defence supplies, joint projects, training and intelligence
exchanges;
3. Exchange visits between defence and security
establishments;
4. Capacity building, technical assistance and informa5on
sharing with par5cular aaen5on to security of sea lanes,
an5-piracy, preven5on of pollu5on and search and
rescue;
5. Combat terrorism and cyber security; and
6. Non-tradi5onal security.

Vietnam and India

MOU Defence Coopera5on 2007
Defence Strategy Dialogue
Coopera5on in na5onal defence
Navy, air defence, transfer of medium-size
warships, spare parts

UN Peacekeeping training
Naval port visits
Submarine training
Moderniza5on of Nha Trang port

Vietnam and India

Defence Coopera5on

Defence co-produc5on cruise missiles

Reciprocal language training
HA/DR and SAR
Joint training jungle and mountain warfare
Facili5es for repair, maintenance and fuel
$100m Line of Credit for four OPVs
Pilot conversion training, Su-30s
Sale of BrahMos?

Prime Minister Modi

(October 2014)

Our defence coopera5on with Vietnam is among

our most important ones. India remains
commiaed to the moderniza5n of Vietnams
defence anf security forces. This will include
expansion of our training program, which is
already very substan5al, joint exercises and
coopera5on in defence equipment. We will
quickly opera5onalize the 100 million dollars Line
of Credit that will enable Vietnam to acquire new
naval vessels from India.

Vietnam-Japan
Strategic Partners 2009
2009 Strategic Partnership
2011 MOU/Plan of Ac5on
Open Defence Aaache Oces

Annual Defence Policy Dialogue

2nd Defence Policy Dialogue Aug 2014 held in Tokyo

2014 Extensive Strategic Partnership

69 separate points

2015 Joint Vision Statement

Defence Coopera5on
Defence Exchanges

High-level: Defence Ministers, Chiefs of

Sta, Service Chiefs, expert-level

Naval Port Visits

Human Resource Development
Mari5me Security and Safety

Modernize Vietnam Coast Guard through

dona5on of six (+2) vessels (Nov 2015)

UN Peacekeeping Opera5ons

Defence Coopera5on
Military avia5on pilot training, safety
Non-tradi5onal security

HA/DR, SAR, counter-terrorism, an5-piracy,

cyber, cyber crime

Informa5on Technology
Military medicine
Salvage opera5ons
Unexploded ordnance
Military technology

Normalization
China-Viet Nam

United States-Viet Nam

Cambodian Conict 1979-91

1990-91 Normaliza5on

1999-2000 Comprehensive
Coopera5on in the New Century
2005 bilateral defence
consulta5ons

2009 strategic coopera5ve

partnership
2010 November 1st Strategic
Defence Security Dialogue

Vietnam War 1965-75

1995 Normaliza5on
2001 Bilateral Trade Agrm.
2003 exchange of defence
ministers
2004 annual defence dialogue
2008 1st Poli5cal, Security and
Defense Dialogue
2010 August 1st Defense
Policy Dialogue

Vietnam-China
Strategic Partnership 2008
2008 Strategic Partnership
2009 Comprehensive Strategic Partnership
2013 Comprehensive Strategic Coopera5ve
Partnership
Oct 2014 Minister for Na5onal Defence General
Phung Quang Thanh visits Beijing acer HD 981
Hot line between defence ministries

Aug 2015 5th Strategic Defence Dialogue

Vice ministerial level

Border Coopera5on
2013 MOU Border Mechanism at 3 levels
Border Guard and Ministry of Public Security

2014 First Border Defence Friendship

Exchange Program
2014-15 forty-nine joint land border patrols

May 2015 2nd Border Defence Exchange

First mee5ng by defence ministers at border
Agreement border coopera5on 3 levels

Border Coopera5on
Oct 2015 3rd mee5ng Vietnam-China Border
Gate Management Coopera5on Commiaee
Mar 2016 3rd Border Defence Friendship
Exchange
Defence ministers meet

April 2016 11th joint patrol in Tonkin Gulf

May 2016 2nd Border Friendship Exchange
Program (Cambodia, China, Laos & Vietnam)

Defence Coopera5on
UN Peacekeeping Opera5ons

Military Hospital 175/Level 2 Field Hospital

Military Region 2-Chengdu Military Region

exchanges
Young Ocer Exchanges
Personnel training
Xi An Poli5cal Academy, China

Poli5cal work in the military

NaConal defence industry defence technology
Military academic research

Vietnam-United States
Comprehensive Partnership (2013)

2003 start of triennial exchange visits by Defence

Ministers on alternate basis
2009 rst naval port visit
2010 1st Defence Policy Dialogue at deputy defence
minister level
Defence MOU (2011)
2013 Comprehensive Partnership
2014 ITAR: sale of lethal weapons on case-by-case
basis
2015 Joint Vision Statement on Defense Rela5ons
2016 complete licing of ITAR restric5ons

Symbolic y outs

USS John D. Stennis

April 2009

USS George H.W. Bush Aug 2010

USS Jacksonville (SSN 699),

Pacific Command, Dec 2009

USS George Washington Aug 2010

Memorandum of Understanding Advancing

Bilateral Defense Coopera5on 2011

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Five Areas of Coopera5on

Mari5me Security
Search and Rescue
United Na5ons Peacekeeping Opera5ons
Humanitarian and Disaster Relief
Between defense universi5es and research
ins5tutes

Comprehensive Partnership 2013

Defence and Security
U.S.-Vietnam Defense Policy Dialogue
Poli5cal, Security, and Defense
Enhance search and rescue and disaster response
capabili5es
Enhanced coopera5on in non-tradi5onal security
counter terrorism; mari5me law enforcement;
transna5onal crime including piracy, and narco5cs,
human, and wildlife tracking; and high-tech crime and
cyber security

US to assist with training and support for UNPKO

Joint Vision Statement on

Defence Coopera5on June 1, 2015
12 Areas and Forms of Coopera5on
1. Coopera5ve ac5vi5es to enhance trust and
mutual understanding
2. Collaborate in mul5lateral fora and
organiza5ons when it is in their common
interest (ASEAN)
3. Strengthen capabili5es of defence ins5tu5ons
and militaries to enhance cooperatoin, promote
security, and address non-tradi5onal secuirty
threats

Joint Vision Statement on

Defence Coopera5on June 1, 2015
12 Areas and Forms of Coopera5on
4. Expand defense trade, poten5ally including
c o o p e r a 5 o n i n p r o d u c 5 o n o f n e w
technologies and equipment were possible
under current law and resric5ons
5. Expand collabora5on in mari5me security
and mari5me domain awareness, port visits,
voyage repair visits and facili5es

Joint Vision Statement on

Defence Coopera5on June 1, 2015
6.
7.
8.
9.

12 Areas and Forms of Coopera5on

Expand training and educa5on opportuni5es
at military academic ins5tu5ons
Search and rescue , and HA/DR
Capacity building for UNPKO
Informa5on exchanges and best prac5ces,
science and defence technology exchanges

Joint Vision Statement on

Defence Coopera5on June 1, 2015
12 Areas and Forms of Coopera5on
10. Overcome legacies of the war
Agent Orange (dioxin), UXE

11. Strategic-level discussions by senior

leadership from defence ministries on
interna5onal security issues
12. Regular exchanges of defence leadership to
each country

Joint Vision Statement on

Defence Coopera5on June 1, 2015
US DOD Defense Policy Dialogue
&
Vietnam review and guidance
MND
Bilateral Defense Dialogue

implementa5on
Annual Service Level talks
execu5on

Joint Vision Statement on

July 7, 2015
Both countries underscore their commitment to
collabora5ng on, among other issues, addressing non-
tradi5onal security threats, coopera5on in mari5me
security, mari5me domain awareness, defense trade
and informa5on sharing, search and rescue,
humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, and
defense technology exchange. Both countries
welcome joint eorts to address war legacy issues,
including the humanitarian mission of missing in ac5on
(MIA) recovery, the clearance of unexploded ordinance
and dioxin remedia5on, and further assistance for
these humanitarian eorts.
President Obama & Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong

US Mari5me Security Ini5a5ve

FY 2015-16 US to provide Vietnam $40.1
million to assist with mari5me ISR and
Command and Control in mari5me
enforcement agencies
Purchase of mari5me defence equipment
Support training
Bilateral HA/DR exercises to promote
interoperability

Joint Statement May 23, 2016

Presidents Tran Dai Quang and Obama
Priori5es of Defence Coopera5on
Humanitarian coopera5on
War legacy
Mari5me Security
UN Peacekeeping, and
Humanitarian assistance and disaster
relief

Joint Statement May 23, 2016

Strengthen Coopera5on
Security
Combawng transna5onal crime, and
Cyber security
Leaer of Intent
Establish Working Group for the Coopera5ve
Humanitarian and Medical Storage Ini5a5ve
for HA/DR

Joint Statement May 23, 2016

Other Areas of Coopera5on
Vietnam and UNPKO
Humanitarian (US MIA accoun5ng)
War Legacy
unexploded ordnance
Dioxin (Agent Orange) remedia5on)
Final phase Da Nang Interna5onal Airport
Bien Hoa Air Base

U.S. Lics All ITAR Restric5ons on

Sale of Lethal Weapons

Conclusion
Mul5lateraleralisa5on and Diversica5on of
external rela5ons
Interna5onal defence coopera5on
Strategic Partnership Agreements
Mechanism to implement
Plan of Ac5on
Comprehensive rela5ons
Defence and security clause
Some upgraded/elevated

Conclusion

High-Level exchanges
Ministers, CDFs, Service Chiefs, others
Strategic Defence Policy Dialogues
Professional military educa5on and training
human resource development/UN PKO
Naval port visits, naval drills
Na5onal defence industry coopera5on
Arms sales
Transfer military technology/co-produc5on

Conclusion
Leverage rela5ons
Gain strategic apprecia5on
Modernise armed forces
Professional military educa5on and training
Equipment, plaxorms and weapons
Technology
Co-produc5on

Diversify sources of supply

Conclusion
Vietnam seeks to give each major power
equity in Vietnams stability and development
in order to ensure Vietnams non-alignment
and strategic autonomy.
Major powers develop interests in their
rela5ons with Vietnam and if they dont
con5nue to engage they will loose out to
another major power that will gain an
advantage.

Vietnam and the Major Powers:

Mul5lateralising Interna5onal Defence
and Security Coopera5on

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Email: c.thayer@adfa.edu.au