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002119 USA Q305 Proof TWO Operator: Date: 31.05.05 Reader: Date:
Contents
United States Employment Outlook 2
Regional Comparisons
Sector Comparisons
About Manpower 21
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Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
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The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.
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On a seasonally adjusted basis, employers in half of Most of the employers surveyed expect little change
the 10 industry sectors surveyed expect that the third in job prospects compared to last year at this time.
quarter hiring pace will be on par with second quarter Six sectors fall into that category, including Mining,
projections. These sectors include Durable and Non- Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade,
Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Education and Services.
Services and Public Administration. Transportation/Public Utilities, Construction and Public
Administration employers plan to pick up the hiring
The employment outlook is slightly stronger for the
pace during the third quarter. Non-Durable Goods
coming quarter in Construction, Transportation/Public
Manufacturers are the only group to express waning
Utilities and Education, while a more sluggish hiring pace
confidence compared with a year ago.
is expected in Mining and Finance/Insurance/Real Estate.
At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/– 0.8%.
According to seasonally adjusted survey results, third Midwest, who report the weakest employment outlook,
quarter hiring estimates are similar to those reported foresee less hiring activity for the coming quarter.
last quarter in two out of the four U.S. regions surveyed This marks the first time in more than a year that the
– the Northeast and the West. Employers in the South Northeast does not lag the other regions in hiring
are somewhat more optimistic about hiring than they expectations. Year-over-year comparisons mirror the
were last quarter. The South is also the region with the quarter-over-quarter analysis.
most promising job prospects. Employers in the
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002119 USA Q305 Proof TWO Operator: Date: 31.05.05 Reader: Date:
Regional Comparisons
Midwest
In the Midwest, 28% of employers surveyed foresee an Education, Services and Public Administration. A more
increase in hiring for the third quarter of 2005, while 7% noticeable slowdown in hiring is predicted for Non-
plan to reduce staff levels. The result is a Net Employment Durable Goods Manufacturing and Finance/Insurance/Real
Outlook of 21%. When seasonal factors are removed Estate, while Mining employers report a significant
from the data, the survey shows that employers foresee decrease in hiring intentions.
a slight decline in the hiring pace compared to last
Public Administration is the only Midwest sector to report
quarter and a year ago. Among the four regions
increased confidence about hiring compared with a year
surveyed, employers in the Midwest reveal the weakest
ago. The job market is expected to remain relatively
hiring intentions.
unchanged in Construction, Transportation/Public Utilities,
Employers in two of the 10 sectors surveyed express Wholesale/Retail Trade and Finance/Insurance/Real
somewhat more positive hiring plans compared with Estate. A slower hiring pace is expected in Durable and
last quarter – Construction and Transportation/Public Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Education,
Utilities. A slight decline in the hiring pace is expected in Services and especially Mining.
Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade,
Net Employment Seasonally
Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % % % %
All Industries 28 7 60 5 21 16
Construction 43 2 51 4 41 21
Education 17 15 65 3 2 5
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 20 5 70 5 15 14
Manufacturing – Durables 30 9 57 4 21 18
Manufacturing – Non-Durables 24 7 64 5 17 13
Mining 20 0 80 0 20 8
Public Administration 23 11 61 5 12 7
Services 27 6 62 5 21 16
Transportation & Public Utilities 27 4 62 7 23 20
Wholesale & Retail Trade 33 5 57 5 28 19
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The Midwest Region comprises the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio,
South Dakota, Wisconsin.
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Northeast
Among employers surveyed in the Northeast, 29% intend Utilities. Job seekers in the Northeast are likely to have
to staff up, while 7% plan to decrease headcount during trouble locating work in Finance/Insurance/Real Estate,
the July – September period. Thus, the Net Employment Education and especially Mining where employers
Outlook is 22%. When seasonal variations are removed foresee notable declines in hiring.
from the data, the employment forecast for the
Compared with last year at this time, Construction
Northeast is identical to the first two quarters of 2005
employers are considerably more upbeat about hiring.
and similar to a year ago. However, for the first time in
Transportation/Public Utilities and Public Administration
more than a year, the Northeast did not report the
employers also report a more positive employment
weakest employment outlook of the regions.
outlook. A notable decline in the hiring pace is
The hiring pace is expected to strengthen in Wholesale/ projected for Mining and Education. Hiring is also
Retail Trade, Construction, Services and Public expected to be slower in Finance/Insurance/Real Estate
Administration compared with last quarter. Employer and Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing.
confidence remains steady in Durable and Non-Durable Hiring plans are consistent in Wholesale/Retail Trade
Goods Manufacturing, and Transportation/Public and Services.
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The Northeast Region comprises the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,
Rhode Island, Vermont.
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South
In the South, 32% of employers surveyed anticipate an Trade, while employer confidence is down slightly in
increase in payrolls for the third quarter of 2005, while Mining and Finance/Insurance/Real Estate. Hiring plans
5% expect to reduce employment levels, yielding a Net are similar to those reported for the second quarter in
Employment Outlook of 27%. The seasonally adjusted Durable Goods Manufacturing, Services and Public
data suggests a slight improvement in the hiring pace Administration.
for the coming quarter when compared with second
Positive trends emerge in the year-over-year comparisons.
quarter and a year ago at this time. In fact, the
Employers are more confident about hiring plans in nine
employment outlook for the South is the strongest
out of 10 sectors. They include Transportation/Public
of the four U.S. regions.
Utilities, Education, Public Administration, Mining,
Among the sectors, quarter-over-quarter comparisons Construction, Durable and Non-Durable Goods
are varied. The hiring pace is likely to pick up in Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail Trade and
Transportation/Public Utilities, Education, Construction, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate. Job prospects in the
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing and Wholesale/Retail Services sector are likely to remain unchanged.
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Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
The South Region comprises the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana,
Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.
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West
Thirty-five percent of employers surveyed in the West are Year-over-year comparisons reveal a wide range of
likely to increase staff levels, while 8% expect to trim results. The job market in Construction and Public
payrolls during the third quarter. This creates a Net Administration is likely to improve significantly.
Employment Outlook of 27%. Seasonally adjusted data Job seekers in Education and Services are also expected
reveals that employers in the West have remained to fare better during the third quarter than they would
consistent in their hiring plans since the third quarter have a year ago. On the other hand, Wholesale/Retail
of 2004. Trade, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Durable Goods
Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities and
Compared with last quarter, employer confidence
Mining all report a slower hiring pace. No change is
increased slightly in Construction, Non-Durable Goods
expected in Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing.
Manufacturing, Education and Services. Hiring plans are
expected to remain stable in Durable Goods Manufacturing
and Wholesale/Retail Trade. The hiring pace is likely to
slow in Transportation/Public Utilities, Finance/Insurance/
Real Estate, Mining and Public Administration.
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The West Region comprises the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon,
Utah, Washington, Wyoming.
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Sector Comparisons
Among the 10 industry sectors analyzed, Construction Although employment prospects are healthy, the hiring
employers are the most confident about employment pace is projected to be more moderate in Finance/
prospects for the third quarter of 2005, according to the Insurance/Real Estate, Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing
seasonally adjusted data. A strong hiring pace is expected and Education, as compared with the other sectors.
in Wholesale/Retail Trade, Transportation/Public Utilities, Public Administration employers are most conservative
Services, Mining and Durable Goods Manufacturing. in their staffing plans for the third quarter.
Construction 40
27
Education 13
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Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
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Manufacturing – Durables
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Manufacturing – Non-Durables
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Mining 20
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Public Administration 15
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Services 20
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Transportation & Public Utilities 21
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Construction
Robust hiring in the Construction sector is likely to Employers in the West are most likely to welcome job
continue during the third quarter, according to seasonally seekers, while those in the Midwest report decidedly
adjusted data. Among the sectors, Construction has less optimistic hiring plans.
the strongest employment outlook. Employers are
slightly more confident about adding staff than they
were last quarter, and the employment outlook shows
solid improvement from a year ago.
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Education
When seasonal variations are removed from the data, Employers in the South, where the strongest hiring
Education employers show a measured increase in pace is expected, are considerably more upbeat than
confidence regarding employment prospects. The hiring those in the Midwest, the least confident of the regions.
pace is expected to be up slightly from last quarter and
consistent with hiring plans reported last year at this time.
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Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
Mining
When seasonal variations are removed from the data, Employers in the South have the strongest hiring plans.
the Mining employment outlook for the coming quarter Those looking for work are likely to find a bleak jobs
suggests a decline in the hiring pace. Employer picture in the Northeast, where employers planning to
confidence levels show a moderate drop compared decrease staff levels outweigh those planning to hire.
with last quarter but remain consistent with projections
from a year ago.
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Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
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Public Administration
The third quarter employment outlook suggests that a steady Employers in the West are most confident about adding
hiring pace will continue in the Public Administration sector. staff, while those in the Midwest anticipate slower hiring
According to seasonally adjusted data, government employers than in the other three regions.
report hiring plans that mirror second quarter. Employers
foresee a moderate increase in hiring over last year.
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Services
Services employers remain consistent in their hiring Job seekers in the West are most likely to find employers
plans for the July – September period, according to in a hiring mode. Those seeking work in the Midwest
seasonally adjusted data. Since the second quarter of can expect to encounter the fewest employers looking
2004, employers have reported very similar hiring plans, to increase staff levels.
and the trend continues for the coming quarter.
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Canada Mexico
50 50
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10 10
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-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005
USA
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-20
2003 2004 2005
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Australia China
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20 20
10 10
0 0
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2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005
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10 10
0 0
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2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005
Singapore Taiwan
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005
No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. This country joined the survey in Q2 2005.
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Austria Belgium
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005
France Germany
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005
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Ireland Italy
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
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2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005
Netherlands Norway
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005
Spain Sweden
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005
Switzerland UK
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2003 2004 2005
This country joined the survey in Q3 2005. Line shows seasonally adjusted data.
No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.
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002119 USA Q305 Proof TWO Operator: Date: 31.05.05 Reader: Date:
Robust: The survey is based on interviews with more than 1966 Manpower’s UK operation launches the equivalent of the
45,000 public and private employers across 23 countries and United States survey, naming the report the Quarterly
territories to measure anticipated employment trends each Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts the
quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across same forward-looking research format as the United States
specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information. survey and is the first of its kind in Europe.
1976 2nd generation of Manpower’s Employment Outlook
Survey launched in the United States and Canada.
Methodology
Research methodology is updated to evolve with
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using
advancements in the field of market research.
a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest
2002 Manpower UK’s Quarterly Survey of Employment
standards in market research. The research team for the 23
Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research
countries and territories where the survey is currently conducted
methodology. Manpower’s operations in Mexico and
includes Manpower’s Market Intelligence team; the Organization
Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries.
Research and Analysis Division of Right Management
Consultants – an independent operating division of Manpower 2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
Inc.; NOP World and Grupo IDM. The survey has been Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total 18
structured to be representative of each national economy. The countries and territories worldwide: Australia, Austria,
margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland,
greater than +/- 4.0%. Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore,
Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States.
In the United States, the national survey is conducted by
Manpower’s North American Market Intelligence Team and 2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the
includes 16,000 employers. With this number of interviews, the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
margin of error for the United States survey is +/- 0.8%. 2005 Manpower operations in China, India, Switzerland and
Taiwan launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
Survey Question
All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the
same question, “How do you anticipate total employment at your
location to change in the three months to the end of September
2005 as compared to the current quarter?”
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002119 USA Q305 Proof TWO Operator: Date: 31.05.05 Reader: Date:
21
3rd Quarter 2005
C O M M A J O B N o : 002119
READER
S U B J E C T: U S A M E O S T E M P L AT E :
D O C U M E N T N A M E : 002119 USA Q305 COVER
S TO R E D : M AY PA G E N o : 1
T Y P E FA C E S : H E LV N E U E , VA R I O U S D AT E : 0 3 . 0 5 . 0 5
DESIGNER/OPERATOR
PROOF: FIRST PROOF SIZE: 80%
P U B L I C AT I O N : N / A
SIZE: 11” x 8.5” SCREEN:
P U B L I C AT I O N D AT E : N / A COLOUR DEADLINE:
12 Dorset Street • London W1U 6QS • Tel 020 7935 4554 • Fax 020 7935 4204 • ISDN 020 7224 1325