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Netflix Inc.

- Revenue and Expense Assumptions for Domestic Stream


($ in Millions, Except for Per Unit Data)
Assumptions:
Company Name:
Last Historical Year:

Netflix Inc.
2014-12-31

Conversion Units:
Months in Year:
# Years in Model:

1,000
12
5

Selected Scenario:

Base
Historical

Subscription Revenue:

Units:

Total Domestic Streaming Revenues:


Revenue Growth Rate:
Average Annual Subscribers:
Monthly Fees per Subscriber:

$M
%
M Subs
$ as Stated

Total # Subscribers at Year End:


2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Total # Subscribers at Year End:

M
M
M
M
M
M
M

Net Additions:
% Base Subscribers:

M Subs
%

Subscriber Renewal Rates:


2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Blended Renewal Rate:

Subs
Subs
Subs
Subs
Subs
Subs
Subs

%
%
%
%
%
%
%

FY12
$

2,184.9
N/A
24.4
7.46

27.1

27.1
5.5
25.3%

Existing Subscriber Renewal Rate:


Base
Upside
Downside
Extreme Downside
Selected Renewal Rate:

%
%
%
%
%

New Subscriber Renewal Rate:


Base
Upside
Downside
Extreme Downside
Selected Renewal Rate:

%
%
%
%
%

Subscriber Adds as % of Base:


Base
Upside
Downside
Extreme Downside
Selected Subscriber Adds as % of Base:

%
%
%
%
%

Monthly Fees per Subscriber Growth Rate:


Base
Upside
Downside
Extreme Downside
Selected Monthly Fee Growth Rate:

%
%
%
%
%

N/A

Domestic Streaming Segment - Base Case

Historical
FY13
$

FY14

FY15

FY16

Projected
FY17

FY18

2,751.4 $
25.9%

3,431.4 $
24.7%

4,079.3 $
18.9%

4,725.4 $
15.8%

5,387.9 $
14.0%

30.3
7.57

36.3
7.88

41.7
8.16

46.8
8.41

52.1
8.62

6,063.0
12.5%
57.5
8.79

33.4

39.1

36.8
7.4

34.6
6.5
8.4

32.3
6.1
7.4
8.9

30.1
5.7
6.9
7.8
9.9

33.4

39.1

44.2

49.5

54.7

60.3

6.3
23.1%

5.7
17.0%

5.1
13.0%

5.3
12.0%

5.2
10.6%

5.5
10.1%

94.0%

94.0%
88.0%

93.5%
93.5%
88.0%

93.0%
93.0%
93.0%
87.5%

94.0%

93.0%

92.6%

92.1%

1.5%

4.1%

94.0%
96.0%
92.0%
90.0%
94.0%

94.0%
96.0%
92.0%
90.0%
94.0%

93.5%
95.0%
91.5%
89.5%
93.5%

93.0%
95.0%
91.0%
89.0%
93.0%

88.0%
90.0%
86.0%
84.0%
88.0%

88.0%
90.0%
86.0%
84.0%
88.0%

88.0%
90.0%
86.0%
84.0%
88.0%

87.5%
89.0%
85.5%
83.0%
87.5%

19.0%
21.0%
18.0%
16.0%
19.0%

19.0%
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
19.0%

18.0%
20.0%
17.0%
15.0%
18.0%

18.0%
19.0%
17.0%
15.0%
18.0%

3.5%
4.0%
2.5%
1.0%
3.5%

3.0%
3.5%
2.0%
1.0%
3.0%

2.5%
3.0%
2.0%
0.5%
2.5%

2.0%
3.0%
1.5%
0.5%
2.0%

FY19
$

6,792.9
12.0%

CAGR:
FY14 - 19
14.6%

63.2
8.96

11.7%
2.6%

27.9
5.3
6.4
7.3
8.6
10.5
66.0

11.0%

5.8
9.6%

93.0%
93.0%
93.0%
93.0%
87.5%
92.1%

93.0%
94.0%
91.0%
89.0%
93.0%

87.5%
89.0%
85.5%
82.0%
87.5%

17.5%
19.0%
16.0%
14.0%
17.5%

2.0%
2.5%
1.0%
0.5%
2.0%

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