Thayer Consultancy

Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam and South China Sea

Arbitration
Carlyle A. Thayer
July 3, 2016
[client name deleted]
An arbitration court in The Hague is pronouncing its verdict on the Philippine action
on South China Sea issues against China on July 12.
Q1. How closely is Vietnam watching this in your view?
ANSWER: Vietnam is watching the arbitral proceedings in The Hague extremely
closely. Vietnam filed a statement of interest in this case and was permitted to send
observers to attend the hearings. Vietnam also stated officially that the Arbitral
Tribunal has jurisdiction over this case.
Vietnam is also watching these legal proceedings closely to see how they will impact
of stability in the South China Sea. Any sustained confrontation political-diplomatic
or otherwise will have a negative impact on Vietnam immediate security
environment.
Q2. What are the implications for Vietnam of this verdict?
ANSWER: The Arbitral Tribunal hearings have demonstrated that all countries,
whether big or small, have rights under international law. Vietnam has explored the
possibility of taking legal action but refrained from doing so. A victory for the
Philippines leaves open Vietnams use of legal redress should China become more
assertive.
If the Arbitral Tribunal resolves what the Philippines is entitled to by defining the
legal status of features islands, rocks and low tide elevations this will put Vietnam
under pressure to clarify the legal status of the features that it occupies. If Vietnam
does so it is likely that it will have overlapping maritime zones with the Philippines
and China. This could provide the basis for delineating territorial seas with the
Philippines but these would not be recognized by China.
Q3. What course of action is Vietnam eyeing with regards to the disputes with China
in the near future?
ANSWER: Vietnam, which upholds international law and UNCLOS in its declaratory
statements, will be faced with the dilemma of calling on China to respect and carry
out the findings of the Arbitral Tribunal or saying as little as possible so as not to
incur Beijings anger. Up to now Vietnamese officials have stated that legal

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proceedings should be the last resort. Vietnam is likely to place greater priority on
bilateral discussions with China over disputed maritime claims where no other party
is involved. Vietnam will adopt the posture of we can think about legal action, but
we prefer other countries to take action. Vietnam is ever cautious and pragmatic,
carefully weighing what approach will benefit it the most.

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