Name: Muhammad Faisal Umar

Program: MBA-Regular Evening

Class: Seminar in Economic Policy
Teacher name: Mirza Aqeel Baig
Date: 12/15/2015
Roll No: 20143-16743
Topic: Research Analysis and Impact on Terrorism

Index

S.No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Topic
Abstract
Literature review
Introduction
Research
Methodology
Charts
Conclusion
References

Page no
3
3
5
11
15
21
21

Research Analysis and Impact on Terrorism

Abstract
Impact of terrorism has been one of the results which changes an economic and disturbed
industrial progress purpose of this research it includes factors and terrorism which effects and
disturbs country economic research parameters are economic indicators which relates terrorism
impact and future and bad planning through which we have indulged
Keywords:
Terrorism, War on Terror, Pakistan

Literature Review
Terrorism in Pakistan has become a major and highly destructive phenomenon in recent
years. The annual death toll from terrorist attacks has risen from 164 in 2003 to 3318 in
2009, with a total of 35,000 Pakistanis killed between September 11, 2001 and May
2011.According to the government of Pakistan, the direct and indirect economic costs of
terrorism from 20002010 total $68 billion.[5] President Asif Ali Zardari, along with
former President ex-Pakistan Army head Pervez Musharraf, have admitted that terrorist
outfits were "deliberately created and nurtured" by past governments "as a policy to
achieve some short-term tactical objectives" The trend began with Muhammad Zia-ulHaq's controversial "Islamization" policies of the 1980s, under which conflicts were
started against Soviet involvement in Afghanistan. Zia's tenure as president saw
Pakistan's involvement in the Soviet-Afghan War, which led to a greater influx of
ideologically driven Muslims (mujahideen) to the tribal areas and increased availability
of guns such as the AK-47 and drugs from the Golden Crescent.
The state and its Inter-Services Intelligence, in alliance with the CIA, encouraged the
"mujahideen" to fight a proxy war against Soviet forces present in Afghanistan. Most of
the mujahideen were never disarmed after the war ended in Afghanistan and some of
these groups were later activated at the behest of Pakistan in the form of the Lashkar-eTaiba, the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen and others like the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to
spread terror in its neighboring countries.The same groups are now taking on the state
itself, making the biggest threat to it and the citizens of Pakistan through the politically
motivated killing of civilians and police officials.[citation needed]
From the summer of 2007 until late 2009, more than 1,500 people were killed in suicide
and other attacks on civiliansfor reasons attributed to a number of causes sectarian
violence between Sunni and Shia Muslims; easy availability of guns and explosives; the
existence of a "Kalashnikov culture"; an influx of ideologically driven Muslims based in
or near Pakistan, who originated from various nations around the world and the
subsequent war against the pro-Soviet Afghans in the 1980s which blew back into

Pakistan; the presence of Islamist insurgent groups and forces such as the Taliban and
Lashkar-e-Taiba; Pakistan's thousands of fundamentalist madrassas (Islamic schools)
which are thought by many[who?] to provide training for little other than jihad and
secessionists movements the most significant being the Baluchistan liberation
movement blamed on regionalism, which is problematic in a country with Pakistan's
diverse cultures, languages, traditions and customs

Introduction
Pakistan has been involved, for the second time around, as a frontline state in a war in Afghanistan. No one
knows how and when, or even if, the second war will come to an end. Pakistan has suffered, in numerous
ways, as a consequence of its political economy and because of the wars on the western frontier.
The consequences of Pakistan involvement and role in the first war between 1979 till 85, are still being felt,
and that earlier war has a close linkage with the new one after 2001.
These wars have changed Pakistan beyond recognition, and what Pakistan could have become, is very
different from what it is today and from what anyone could have imagined in 1977, or even in 1979.
It is improbable that many people who looked at Pakistan in the late 1970s, could have called it a rogue
state, The most dangerous place in the world, and lots worse, two decades later. Pakistans political
leadership, its elite, but especially its military, are responsible for ragging Pakistan into the first Afghanistan
war as well as into the second.
The Government of Pakistan during General Pervez Musharrafs regime, without doubt the single biggest
beneficiary of the USs war, estimated when the war began on 7 October 2001, that it would come to a halt
by December 2001 and the normalcy will resume by January 2002!
It estimated the cost of war to Pakistan in 2001/02 of as much as $2.669 billion.
In 2009/10, this annual cost was calculated to be $13.6 billion, rising to $17.8 billion in 2010/11.
Beneficiaries on war of terror:
U.S. officials acknowledge that Pakistan has provided more support, captured more terrorists, and
committed more troops than any other nation in the GCTF (Global Counterterrorism Force).
Pakistan sealed off its western borders, and made 2 naval bases,3 air force bases and its air space available
to US military

Granted logistic facilities are made

Shared intelligence is being approved
More than 185000 Pakistani troops remain deployed along the Afghan border and the military captured
over 700 al-Qaeda operatives
launched more than Thirty-eight major successful operations to flush out foreign terrorists
Enacted numerous antiterrorism laws, freezing thirty-two bank accounts suspected of belonging to terrorist
organizations
Created national militant database by the name of PISCES-an anti terrorism program.

In 2003, the US officially forgave US$1 billion in Pakistani debt.

Between 2002-2010, US Congress approved $18 billion in military and economic aid from the United
States. However the Pakistan Treasury only received $8.647 billion in direct financial payments.
Sanctions lifted and about $10 billion in U.S. aid since 2001, primarily military.
In June 2004, President George W. Bush designated Pakistan as a major non-NATO ally, making it eligible,
among other things, to purchase advanced American military technology.
With Obama coming into office, the U.S. was expected to triple non-military aid to Pakistan to $1.5 billion
per year over 10 years.
In October 2009, the US Congress approved $7.5 billion of non-military aid to Pakistan over the next five
years via the Kerry-Lugar Bill.
Obama also sought $3.1 billion aid for Pakistan to defeat Al Qaeda for 2010.
Pakistan, which was not in the direct ambit of the war, had lost far more civilians and personnel than the
arena of war itself.

Apart from the human lives lost, There was:

Destruction of infrastructure was immense
Internal migration of millions from north western Pakistan due to terror activities
Erosions of investment climate and people were not able to exloit natural resources
Nose diving of production results in low economy
Growing unemployment results in crime increase
Pakistan had never witnessed such devastating social and economic violent change in its industry.
Being a frontline state for the 2nd time, this time the consequences were perhaps more severe.
The War disputed Pakistans normal trading activities
Economic Growth slowed
Demands for imports reduced
Decline in Tax collection
Inflows of foreign investment were naturally greatly affected
Travel bans by western government to its entrepreneurs

The conflict and instability in Afghanistan in the aftermath of 9/11 attacks had very negative repercussions for the years following the US invasion of
Afghanistan not only saw a huge influx of Afghan refugees across the border into Pakistan but also witnessed a sudden spike in the frequency and scale of
terrorist attacks in Pakistan.

The Government of Pakistan stated that in the decade from 2001 to June 2011, as many as 35,000 Pakistani civilians and 3,500 Pakistani security men had been
killed as a consequence of the War on Terror. But actual death un-offically reported is above One lack

Impacts of War

This situation disrupted Pakistans normal economic and trading activities which not only resulted in higher costs of business but also created disruptions in the
production cycles, resulting in significant delays in meeting the export orders around the globe.

As a result, Pakistani products have gradually lost their market share to their competitors.

Consequently, economic growth could not picked up as planned. Investment outflow and negative trends of out sourcing of capital in Pakistan has further added
to the woes of dwindling performance of the export-oriented industry

Research analysis 1

Regression analysis is performed on

Depend Variable is GDP

Independent Variable: FDI, Export, Investment

Years
2
3.1
4.7
7.5
9
5.8
6.8
4.1
1.2

Export
s
9.2
9.14
11.16
12.31
14.39
16.45
17
19.1
14.8

Investme
nts

FDI
0.3
0.5
0.8
0.9
1.5
3.5
5.1
5.2
3.7

10.2
11.3
11.3
10.9
13.1
15.7
15.4
15
13.2

Model Summaryb
Model

R Square

Adjusted R

Std. Error of the

Square

Estimate

Change Statistics
R Square

F Change

df1

Change
1

.757a

.573

.317

2.14655

.573

2.240

Model Summaryb
Model

Change Statistics
df2

Sig. F Change
5a

.201

a. Predictors: (Constant), Private_Investment, FDI, Exports

b. Dependent Variable: GPD

ANOVAa
Model

Sum of Squares

df

Mean Square

Regression

30.970

10.323

Residual

23.038

4.608

Total

54.009

Sig.
.201b

2.240

a. Dependent Variable: GPD

b. Predictors: (Constant), Private_Investment, FDI, Exports

Coefficientsa
Model

Unstandardized Coefficients

Standardized

Sig.

Coefficients
B
(Constant)
Exports

Std. Error

-14.954

9.333

1.245

.683

-2.688
.713

Beta
-1.602

.170

1.683

1.824

.128

1.125

-2.058

-2.389

.062

.981

.574

.727

.500

1
FDI
Private_Investment

Coefficientsa
Model

95.0% Confidence Interval for B

Lower Bound
(Constant)

Upper Bound
-38.946

9.038

-.510

3.000

FDI

-5.579

.204

Private_Investment

-1.808

3.233

Exports
1

a. Dependent Variable: GPD

Residuals Statisticsa
Minimum
Predicted Value
Residual

Mean

Std. Deviation

2.9363

8.2671

4.9111

1.96756

-1.73633

3.31924

.00000

1.69700

-1.004

1.706

.000

1.000

-.809

1.546

.000

.791

Std. Predicted Value

Std. Residual

a. Dependent Variable: GPD

Charts

Maximum

Research analysis 2

Research Methodology

Model Summaryb

Mode

R Square

Adjusted
Square

.644a

Model Summaryb

.415

.220

Std. Error of the

Change Statistics

Estimate

3.438

R Square Change

F Change

df1

.415

2.131

Model

Change Statistics

df2

Sig. F Change

9a

.166

a. Predictors: (Constant), Terrorists, TotalCivilians, SecurityForcePersonnel

b. Dependent Variable: No.of.years

ANOVAa

Model

Sum of Squares

df

Mean Square

Sig.

Regression

75.592

25.197

2.131

.166b

Residual

106.408

11.823

Total

182.000

12

a. Dependent Variable: No.of.years

b. Predictors: (Constant), Terrorists, TotalCivilians, SecurityForcePersonnel

Coefficientsa

Model

Unstandardized Coefficients

Standardized

Sig.

1073.371

.000

1.802

.105

Coefficients

Std. Error

(Constant)

2006.136

1.869

TotalCivilians

.004

.002

Beta

1.172

SecurityForcePersonnel

-.011

.011

-.857

-1.050

.321

Terrorists

.001

.001

.330

.774

.459

Coefficientsa

Model

95.0% Confidence Interval for B

Lower Bound

Upper Bound

(Constant)

2001.908

2010.364

TotalCivilians

-.001

.010

SecurityForcePersonnel

-.035

.013

Terrorists

-.001

.002

a. Dependent Variable: No.of.years

Coefficient Correlationsa

Model

Terrorists

TotalCivilians

SecurityForcePers
onnel

Correlations

Terrorists

1.000

.402

-.684

TotalCivilians

.402

1.000

-.879

SecurityForcePersonnel

-.684

-.879

1.000

Terrorists

4.871E-007

6.802E-007

-5.081E-006

TotalCivilians

6.802E-007

5.872E-006

-2.266E-005

SecurityForcePersonnel

-5.081E-006

-2.266E-005

.000

Covariances

a. Dependent Variable: No.of.years

Residuals Statisticsa

Minimum

Maximum

Mean

Std. Deviation

Predicted Value

2005.45

2012.61

2009.00

2.510

13

Residual

-3.493

7.564

.000

2.978

13

Std. Predicted Value

-1.414

1.438

.000

1.000

13

Std. Residual

-1.016

2.200

.000

.866

13

a. Dependent Variable: No.of.years

Charts

Pakistan has lost 58,117 lives

since 2003. Terrorists/Insurgents are also part

of this and most of them have been killed due to military operations or drone attacks.

The number of incidents of suicide bombing and drone attacks escalated from 2007 onwards due to Lal Masjid incident

Terrorism in Pakistan has already resulted in at least 2105 fatalities, including 532 civilians, 160 Security Force Personnel and 1413 terrorists till June 21,2015

Some provinces/regions are more affected than others and bear a greater burden of casualties like KPK, FATA and Balochistan. Likewise some cities are more
affected than others within these provinces/regions. In Balochistan, its the city of Quetta, in KPK, Peshawar has seen more bomb blasts than any other and in
FATA, Kurram, Khyber Agency as well as North and South Waziristan Agencies have borne the highest death tolls.

Conclusion
Pakistan has been crossed road most of loss is caused due to war on terror and peace and stability has not been maintained .Government is still day by day failing
to continue its mission and challenges rampant corruption has been done but innocent lives has been put into fire and most of the people do not belong to terrorist
activities
Peace in that region through negotiation
Pakistan needs enormous resources to enhance productive capacity of the economy by repairing damaged infrastructure and to create a favorable investment
climate.
The security situation will be the key determinant of future flow of the investment. After adoption of National Action Plan by the All Parties Conference (APC)
and its subsequent implementation which is overseen by the apex committees of the provinces.
There have been improvements in the overall security situation in Pakistan in the recent months as a result of concerted actions by the Government of Pakistan.
However, peace and stability in Afghanistan and the region are vital for the complete revival of Pakistans economy and to keep stability in the system.

References:
1. .http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/243/html
2. www.dailytimes.com.pk/national/03-Jun-2014/...billion-in-war-on-terror
3. tribune.com.pk/story/897998/war-on-terror-losses-drop-for-fourth...
4. www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-13-37839-Rs8264-bn-losses-suffered...
5. www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapters_15/Annex_IV_War_on_Terror.pdf
6. finance.gov.pk/survey/chapters_14/Annex_3.pdf