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RUS SI A N ENERGY 20 1 4

Release October 2015

CONTENT S
5 Macroeconomy
6

Economic growth in the leading economies of


the world

Economic growth in Russia and leading world


economies (quarterly data)

Monthly dynamics of industrial production in


Russia and leading industrial
economies of the world

13 Oil
14

Crude oil reserves in the leading countries

14

Russias share in the world

15

rude oil and NGL production in Russia

15

rude oil and NGL production by region

16

Oil production in the leading countries

16

Russias share in the world

17

22

Motor fuel output by emission standarts


in Russia

22

Gasoline output structure in Russia

23

Petroleum products shipment in Russian


regions

24

Crude oil and petroleum products exports


in Russia

The worlds biggest oil & gas


companies

24

Russian petroleum products exports


to OECD countries

25

World oil prices

25

Petroleum products exchange trading in Russia


(SPIMEX)

Main commodity prices (IMF indices)

Dynamics of main exchange rates

10

Change of investments in fixed capital


of Russia

17

rude oil production by leading Russian


oil companies

10

External trade of Russia: exports and imports of


goods, trade balance

18

Oil consumption in the leading countries

18

Russias share in the world

25

Average motor fuel prices in Russia

26

Refining capacity

26

Average gasoline (RON-92) prices in Russia


by region

27

Gasoline (RON-92) price change in Russia


by region

28

Investment in Russian oil sector

28

Percentage change in oil investment

10

Structure of Russian budgetary


incomes and non-oil deficit

19

Production and flaring of associated gas


in Russia

11

Energy intensity of Russian GDP according to


different estimates

19

Associated gas flaring by region

19

Associated gas utilisation

20

Refining capacity in the leading countries

20

Russias share in the world

21

Primary crude oil refining in Russia

21

Average annual refining capacity

21

Crude oil refining depth

22

Basic petroleum products output in Russia

11 CO 2 emissions in Russia and other countries

Russian Energy 2014

Russian Energy 2014

29 Natural Gas

41 Coal

30

Natural gas reserves in the leading countries

42

Countries with largest coal reserves

30

Russias share in the world

42

Top coal producing countries

31

Natural gas production in the leading countries

42

Russias share in world coal production

31

Russias share in the world

43

Coal reserves in Russia by main basin

32

Share of LNG in world gas trade

43

32

Russia and other countries in world exports


of natural gas

Coal production in Russia


by main basin

44

Regional structure of coal production in Russia

33

Russia`s largest natural gas fields: reserves

44

34

Major producing gas fields in Russia

Coal production and upgrading in Russia


by types

45

Largest coal producers in Russia

46

Top oal onsuming ountries

46

Russias share in world coal consumption

47

Supply of Russian coal to main consumers

47

Average domestic coal prices


in Russia

47

Russian investment to coal industry

48

Structure of Russian hard coal exports


by destination

49

Top coal exporting countries

49

World coal prices

49

Russian share in world coal exports

49

World steam coal prices

35

Russias natural gas production by company

35

Independent gas producers in Russia

36

Natural gas in Russia: production, consumption


and exports

36

Russias natural gas production by region

37

Russia`s natural gas consumption by sector

37

Natural gas supply in the leading countries

37

Investment for Russian regions gasification

37

Russias gasification level

38

LNG production and exports in Russia

38

Share of Russia`s LNG exports by destination

38

CNG consumption in road transport

38

World prices of natural gas

39

Russias natural gas exports by destination

51 Petrochemicals
52

Polymers production in Russia


in primary forms

52

Russian investment to petrochemical industry

53

Changes in polymers production and


consumption in Russia

55 Electricity
56

Installed power capacity in Russia

56

Additional power capacity in UES of Russia


in 2014: total and by the Capacity Delivery
Agreement (CDA)

56

Depreciation of fixed assets at the end of the


year: generation, transmission and distribution
of electricity

57

Investments in generation, transmission and


distribution of electricity in Russia

57

Change of investments in electricity in fixed


capital of Russia in 2014 in comparison to 2013

58

Average electricity price by consumers


(nominal prices)

58

Electricity price for industry and households


and CPI in Russia

59

Electricity consumption growth in the UES


of Russia

59

Industrial Production Index in Russia


and federal districts

MACROECONOMY
The combination of structural and conjunctural factors led
to the economic stoppage in Russia

Russian Energy 2014. Macroeconomy

Economic growth in the leading economies of the world


2005-2014, % y/y
The rate of global economic growth did not
change substantially in 2014: according to IMF
estimate, it equaled 3.4%, as in the previous
year. However, this stability masks structural
changes: the growth of developing economies,
primarily in Latin America and CIS, slowed
down considerably, while developed economies
achieved some acceleration due to the revival of
the EU economy.
The sharpest deceleration among leading economies was seen in Brazil, under the influence of
problems on commodity markets, a high inflation and a weak domestic demand. As concerns
developed economies, the situation deteriorated
in Japan: domestic consumption decreased,
partially due to growing taxes. The European
economy strengthened: though France and Italy
are still stagnating, Germany and Britain are
growing on the base of the euro depreciation and
cheap energy.

China

Russia

Germany

15,0

10,0

5,0

0,0

-5,0

-10,0

Source: IMF, Eurostat, National Bureau of Statistics of China, Rosstat

France

UK

Italy

Japan

US

Brazil

Economic growth in Russia and leading world economies


2012-2014, q/q, seasonally adjusted

China
Despite widely spread worries about the slowdown in China,
the general situation in 2014 was satisfactory there.

3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0

U-28
The growth in the EU during 2014 was stable too, though
its rate was still quite low.

1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
-1,0

US

The US economy demonstrated high growth again in 2014


but the annual rate was deteriorated by a sharp fall in the 1st
quarter. It is attributed to the cold winter, however, it may also
be seen as an indicator of potential volatility.

2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
-1,0

Russia
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
-1,0
I

III

II

2012

IV

II

III

2013

IV

II

III

IV

The Russian economic growth stopped in the second half of


2014 but the decrease in GDP was not recorded as well, even
in the fourth quarter: private consumption and investment
declined, as well as exports, but it was compensated by import substitution. This process has been accompanied by the
growth of value added in manufacturing (+2,5% in 2014) and
agriculture (+1,5%), while the construction shrinked (5,1%).

2014

Source: World Bank, Rosstat, Eurostat


Russian Energy 2014. Macroeconomy

Russian Energy 2014. Macroeconomy

Monthly dynamics of industrial production in Russia and leading industrial


economies of the world
2012-2014, monthly, Dec. 2011 = 100, seasonally adjusted
The growth of industrial production in the
USA and in Germany accelerated in 2014.
Germany returned to a positive and strong
industrial growth (+1,9%).

After the temporary decline in early 2013


the US industry achieved the highest
growth rate in 15 years (+4,3%), except
post-crisis 2010. Nevertheless, in the
fourth quarter, probably because of the US
dollar appreciation, the American industry
slowed down.

Germany

The industrial production in Russia in 2014


slightly revived, especially in manufacturing (+2,1% after +0,5% in 2013, in particular
in food production, oil refining, production
of plastics and railway transport).

US

The growh rate of industrial production


in China decreased in 2014 (+8,2% after
+9,9% in 2013), and it was unstable
during the year.

Russia

China

130
120
110
100
2012

2013

2014

2012

2013

2014

2012

2013

2014

2012

2013

2014

Source: World Bank, Rosstat

Main commodity prices (IMF indices)


2012-2014, Jan. 2012 = 100
agricultural raw materials

metals

food

energy
World commodity indices in 2014 plunged but this decline is explained
mainly by cheapening energy products and metals. Food prices moved
differently, the strongest fall in prices in 2014 was recorded on markets
for grains and soybeans, somewhere also for oils, sugar and seafood.

120
110
100
90

Metal indices in 2014 continued their decline, with sharp fall of iron ore
prices (in2014 it depreciated by half) and moderate losses on copper,
lead, tin and nickel markets. Such dynamics may be explained by the
excess of previously in the era of high prices brought capacities
under todays weak demand.

80
70
60
50
2012

2013

2014

The most important problem for the Russian


economy was the cheapening of oil by 40% in
the second half of 2014. Gas prices in long-term
contracts slightly decreased in 2014 too but the
most part of their correction will take place in
2015. Coal price decreased approximately by one
quarter in 2014.

Source: IMF

Dynamics of main exchange rates


20122014

USD per euro


1,5
1,4
1,3
1,2
1,1

Rubles per USD


60
50
40
30
20

Pounds per USD


0,70
0,65
0,60
0,55
0,50

The second half of 2014 was marked by sharp


fluctuations of exchange rates. The euro depreciated by 10% in relation to the US dollar, the
yen almost by 20% because of the moderation

100 yen per USD


1,3
1,2
1,1

of the monetary policy in Japan and its simultaneous tightening in the USA. The rouble weakened by more than 40%, following the oil price.

1,0
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6

jan

mar

may

jul

sep

2012

Russian Energy 2014. Macroeconomy

nov

jan

mar

may

jul

2013

sep

nov

jan

mar

may

jul

2014

sep

nov

Source: Thomson Reuters


9

Russian Energy 2014. Macroeconomy

10

Change of investments in fixed capital


of Russia

Structure of Russian budgetary


incomes and non-oil deficit

2014, without small enterprises and statistically unobservable investment

2013-2014, trln rubles

The decrease in investments remains an essential element of the economic slowdown in Russia.
But in 2014 fuel and energy industries did not make a negative contribution: in general, investments
in the sector were growing, though some contractions took place in electricity and heat industries,
coal production and gas pipelines. The decline of investments in the economy was recorded mostly
in rail and road transport, health care, organization of cultural and sport activities.

oil and gas incomes

16

non-oil and gas incomes


14

non-oil deficit
Despite the deteriorating situation on world
commodity markets in 2014, oil and gas incomes
of the Russian federal budget grew by 0,9 trln
rubles. But all the additional incomes hydrocarbon incomes, as well as non-hydrocarbon
incomes were directed to finance growing
budget liabilities. As a result, non-oil deficit
increased by the sum of additional oil and gas
incomes by 0,9 trln rubles.

12

absolute change to 2013


bln rubles (constant prices)
Extraction of energy resources
Oil refining
Electricity, gas and heat
Pipeline transportation

Total (the whole economy)

per cent change, physical volume


% to 2013

148,9
8,3
73,0
31,5

8,8
1,8
6,8
4,7

442,7

4,3

10

Source: Rosstat

2014

2013

Source: The Ministry of Finance of Russia

External trade of Russia: exports and imports of goods, trade balance


2005-2014, bln USD
exports

Due to the outpacing decrease in imports,


resulting from sanctions and counter-sanctions
and the falling rate of exchange, trade balance
of Russia slightly improved in 2014. However,
sharp fall of oil prices in the end of the year led
to the correction of trade balance and to the fast
weakening of the ruble .

trade balance

imports

25
600

20

500

15

400
10

300

200
100

jan
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

mar

may jul
2013

sep

nov

jan

mar

may jul
2014

sep

nov

Source: World Bank

Energy intensity of Russian GDP according to different estimates


2005-2013, toe per thousand USD-2011 (PPP-based)
BP

IEA

Rosstat

Statistical data of 20122013 from different


sources confirm that after 2011 the process
of energy efficiency improvement in Russia
restarted. Nevertheless its rates are considerably lower than before the crisis
of 20082009.

0,26
0,25
0,24
0,23
0,22
0,21
0,20
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: IEA, BP, Rosstat

CO2 emissions in Russia and other countries


2005-2013, Mt

World
40

30

China

US

EU

Russia

Global CO 2 emissions in 2013 continued to grow


at a slightly lower rate compared to the previous
year. More than a half of the 2013 increase was
provided by China. Russian emissions shrinked
by 0,7%.

20

10

Source: BP
Russian Energy 2014. Macroeconomy

11

OIL
Crude oil exports reduction in Russia accompanied by increase in output
and exports of petroleum products

Russian Energy 2014. Oil

14

Crude oil reserves in the leading countries

Russias share in the world

2000-2013, bln t

2000-2013, %

In recent years, the split down of the oil proved


reserves by countries has not changed. Having
multiplied four times its investigated reserves
since 2000, due to heavy and extra heavy oil
of the Orinoco oil belt, Venezuela still holds the
leadership.

8
6
4
2

2000

Venezuela
50
40
30
20
10

Source: BP

Saudi Arabia

Canada

Iran

Iraq

2001

2002

2003

Kuwait

2004

2005

2006

2007

UAE

2008

2009

2010

2011

Russia

2012

2013

rude oil and NGL production in Russia


20002014, Mt
Crude oil production in Russia was growing during last six years
(inaverage by 1,2% per year). Nevertheless, production growth rates
are decreasing driven by economic factors and gradual entering
oil production plateau.

600
500
400
300
200
100

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

rude oil and NGL production by region


20002014, %
100

other
Far East
North West
Siberia

80

Volga
Ural

Crude oil production in Ural Federal District continues to decrease


(by3Mt in 2014) but it still provides more than half of total Russian crude
oil production (57,1%). However, crude oil production decline rate stabilized
at 1,0% per year.
Crude oil production in Volga Federal District (21,9% of total Russian oil production) showed a growth during 2000-2014, but the growth rates are decelerating. Oil production in the District in 2014 increased by 1,4 Mt (+1,3%).

60

Crude oil production decrease on mature fields is compensated by


expansion of greenfields exploration in Siberian and Far Eastern Federal
Districts, which provide 9,1% and 4,4% of total Russian crude oil production respectively. Thus crude oil production in 2014 in Siberian and Far
Eastern Federal Districts increased by 1,7 Mt (+3,6%) and 1,5 Mt (+7,2%)
respectively.

40

20

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Rosstat
Russian Energy 2014. Oil

15

Russian Energy 2014. Oil

16

Oil production in the leading countries

Russias share in the world

2000-2014, Mt

20002014, %

The United States has become the largest oil


producer due to intesive exploitation of oil shale
deposits, ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Russia continues to maintain almost 12% of
world oil production. In Iran, the oil production
has significantly decreased as a result of international sanctions imposed in 2011, but their
partial abatement in January 2014 has helped
Iran on its way back to growth. In Iraq, despite
the new military conflict, recovery growth has
been observed.

15

US
600
500
400
300
200
100

Source: IEA

Saudi Arabia

10

2000

Russia

China

Canada

2001

2002

UAE

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Iran

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Iraq

2013

2014

The worlds biggest oil & gas


companies

rude oil production by leading Russian


oil companies

2013-2014, Production, Mtoe

20122014, Mt

632,3

Saudi Aramco

403,3

Gazprom

303,7

NIOC

263,9

Exxon Mobil

229,0

Rosneft

194,2

PetroChina

154,3

BP

597,4
413,2
298,7
234,0
234,0
199,1
184,2
199,1

Royal Dutch Shell

179,2

Pemex

169,3

KPC

174,3

Chevron

119,5

ADNOC

129,4

Total

124,5

Petrobras

184,2
179,2
169,3
164,3
154,3
124,5
119,5
119,5

QP

114,5

Lukoil

119,5
114,5
109,0

Sonatrach

110,5

Ministry of Oil (Iraq)

104,6

PDVSA

109,5
104,6
99,6
99,6

ConocoPhillips

99,6

Statoil

99,6
99,6

Russian Energy 2014. Oil

Rosneft
190,6
192,6

190,9
Lukoil
87,2
86,7

86,6

Surgutneftegaz
61,4
61,4

61,4
Gazprom Neft
31,6
32,2

33,6
Tatneft
2013

2014

Positions of Russian Gazprom,


Rosneft and Lukoil have remained
unchanged in the list of the largest
oil and gas companies. On the top
of the list is Saudi Arabians national company Saudi Aramco.

26,3
26,4

26,5

Bashneft
15,5
16,4

17,9
RussNeft
8,9
8,9

2012

2013

2014

In 2014, three of seven leading


Russian oil-producing companies
demonstrated output decline: Rosneft (1,7 Mt), RussNeft (0,3 Mt)
and LUKOIL (0,1 Mt). The rest of
the companies, excluding Surgutneftegaz (there was no change in
companys production), increased
their output.

8,6
Source: Forbes

Source: CDU TEK


17

Russian Energy 2014. Oil

18

Oil consumption in the leading countries

Russias share in the world

2000-2014, Mt

20002014, %

In 2014, global oil consumption increased by


0,7%. In developed countries, it fell by 1,0%.
In the developing world, there was a further
increase in consumption (+2,5%), largely maintained by increased demand from the Asian
market. Russia has continued to increase its
share of global oil consumption in recent years.

US
1200
1000
800
600
400
200

Source: IEA

China

4
3
2
1

2000

Japan

Russia

2001

India

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Brazil

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Saudi Arabia

2014

Production and flaring of associated gas


in Russia

Associated gas utilisation

20002014, bcm

The rate of associated gas utilization in 2014 reached 85,2% (+8,2 p.p.
versus 2013) and exceeded all-time high of 1995 by 4,2 p.p. due to legislative changes encouraged investment in associated gas utilization and
processing. Far Eastern Federal District demonstrated the highest rate of
utilization (98,1%) while the lowest rate was recorded in Siberian Federal
District (36,7%).

production

20002014, %

flaring

80
70
60
50
40

90

30

80

20

70

10

60
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Rosstat

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Rosstat

Associated gas flaring by region


20082014, %
100

ther
North West

80

Volga
Ural
Siberia

60

Siberian Federal District is the leading region in terms of associated


gas flaring volume (47,8% of total Russian volume) passed ahead of the
former leader Ural Federal District (27,2%) in 2012. It is attributed to
the changes in geographical structure of crude oil production (greenfields
output growth with no prepared infrastructure for utilization) and higher
rate arrangements in mature oil-producing regions.

40

20

2008

2009

Russian Energy 2014. Oil

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Rosstat
19

Russian Energy 2014. Oil

20

Refining capacity
in the leading countries

Russias share in the world

2000-2013, Mt

Since 2009, Russias share in global refining


capacity has been growing, but not very rapidly,
especially compared to China. In the EU,
a prolonged reduction in oil refining capacity
is still observed.

20002014, %

4
2

2000

US
1000
800
600
400
200

Source:

China

Russia

2001

India

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Japan

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

South Korea

2013

Primary crude oil refining in Russia


20052014, Mt
Far East

350

Ural

300

North West
South

250

Siberia

200

Center

Between 2010 and 2014 crude oil refining in Russia has shown growth from
249,3 Mt to 294,4 Mt (+12,9%). The largest absolute increase was recorded
in Volga Federal District by 12,9 Mt (+12,9%) while the largest percentage
change was recorded in Ural Federal District by 9,2 Mt (+120,8%). Volga
Federal District is the leading crude oil refining region (38,4% of total Russia crude oil refining volume).

Volga

150
100
50
0
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Rosstat

2014

Average annual refining capacity

Crude oil refining depth

20052013, mtpy

20002014, %

Ural

Volga

140

North West

Siberia

Far East

Center

South

Average refining depth in Russia in 2014 reached 72,4% (+0,7 p.p. versus
2013) and exceeded all-time high of 2008 by 0,3 p.p. due to Russian refineries modernization to be completed by 2020.

120

100

80

74

60
72
40
70
20
68
2000

Source: Rosstat
Russian Energy 2014. Oil

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Source: Rosstat
21

Russian Energy 2014. Oil

22

Basic petroleum products output in Russia


2000, 2005, 20082014, Mt
Gasoline

Diesel

Heating Oil

Basic petroleum products output in Russia in


2014 increased by 6,45 Mt (+3,4%). The growth
was mostly driven by diesel output 5,43 Mt
(+7,6%). Gasoline output declined by 0,44 Mt
(1,1%). The share of Gasoline Regular 95 continues to grow reached 27,3% in 2014 (+10 p.p. during last four years). The share of Euro5 motor
fuels has shown considerable growth: gasoline
by 8,8 p.p. to 68,3%, diesel by 13,2 p.p. to 55,4%.

80

60

40

20

2000

2005

2008

2014

2000

2005

2008

2014

2000

Motor fuel output by emission standarts in Russia


20112014, %

2005

2008

Source: Rosstat

2014

Gasoline output structure


in Russia
20102014, %

Euro 2

Euro 3

Euro 4

Euro 5

ON-76

RON-92

RON-95

RON-98

(RON-80)

Gasoline

Diesel

100

100

80

80
60
60
40

40

20

20

2011

Source: Rosstat

2012

2013

2014

2011

2012

2013

2014

2010

Source: Rosstat

2011

2012

2013

2014

Petroleum products shipment in Russian regions


2014, kt
Share of the Federal
District in total Russian output
18,3%

Center

Individual regions performance

Moscow Oblast
Yaroslavl Oblast
Moscow

Gasoline shipment

Diesel shipment

Heating oil shipment

4066
195
1393

230
244
89

2 519
577
943

157
1207
148
1170

115
4 524
1 647
1 299

671
1 545
416
1 185

17,7%

North West

Komi Republic
Leningrad Oblast
Murmansk Oblast
St. Petersburg

17,4%

South

Krasnodar Krai
Volgograd Oblast
Rostov Oblast

1224
662
979

7 403
15
781

3 758
522
664

1,5%

North
Caucasus

Republic of Dagestan
Republic of North Ossetia-Alania
Stavropol Krai

261
96
583

1
1
6

15
45
240

15,3%

Volga

Republic of Bashkortostan
Republic of Tatarstan
Nizhny Novgorod Oblast
Samara Oblast

1305
1100
863
1802

310
235
45
176

804
1 254
520
1 478

7,7%

Ural

Sverdlovsk Oblast
Tyumen Oblast
Chelyabinsk Oblast

1137
1163
798

117
2
45

698
2 676
524

Krasnoyarsk Krai
Irkutsk Oblast
Kemerovo Oblast
Novosibirsk Oblast
Omsk Oblast

784
681
683
751
469

253
422
377
25
163

897
1 075
1 207
546
508

Primorsk Krai
Khabarovsk Krai

466
835

3 927
2 014

571
1 125

11,8%

Siberia

10,3%

Far East

Russian Energy 2014. Oil

Source: Rosstat
23

Russian Energy 2014. Oil

24

Crude oil and petroleum products


exports in Russia

Russian petroleum products exports


to OECD countries

20002014, Mt

20002014, Mt

Crude oil exports in Russia continued to decline in 2014 and reached 223,4 Mt
(24,4 Mt versus 2009) in contrast to petroleum products exports which showed
growth again in 2014 amounted to 164,8 Mt (+13,2 Mt versus 2013). Crude oil (89,2%)
and petroleum products (94,1%) exports goes almost entirely to far-abroad countries.

In 2014, the supply of petroleum products to OECD countries still


increased, primarily due to growth of fuel oil and naphtha exports which
increased by a third. Exports of diesel fuel and gasoline to the developed
countries also rose, though in less significantly.

80

Far-abroad countries

CIS countries

70

Crude oil exports in Russia

4,3

Other petrolium
products

60

300

26,8

50

Fuel oil

250
40

200
150

2,0

Gasoline

30

24,2

100

Diesel fuel

20
50

0,6

Kerosene

13,1

Naphtha

10
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Petroleum products exports in Russia

2000

200

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Russia's share in OECD countries imports of petroleum products, 2000-2014, %

150

20
15

100

10

50

2000

2001

2002

Source: Rosstat

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2000

2001

Source: IEA

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

World oil prices

Average motor fuel prices in Russia

20052014, $/bbl

Jan 2011 Jan 2015, rubles/l

The imbalance of supply and demand in the world oil market


led to a steady fall in prices in the second half of 2014. The
key reasons for overproduction are growth of oil production
in the US as well as the major exporting countries unwillingness to reduce their production fueled by fear of losing

Brent

WTI

their share in the global market. Moreover, the


demand for oil was weakened by slowdown of
growth in the economies of China and of the
European Union. A stronger US dollar was also
a significant factor in the decline in oil prices.

Urals

Gasoline prices increased in January 2015 in average by 2,6 rubles (yearon-year) or by 8,5%. RON92 gasoline showed the highest price growth
by 2,82 rubles (+9,5%). Diesel prices increased by 1 ruble (+3,0%).

OPEC oil basket

120

MON-76 (RON-80)

RON-92 (RON-93)

RON-95 and above

Diesel

40

100
35

80

30
25

60
20
15

40
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

Source: Rosstat

Petroleum products exchange trading in Russia (SPIMEX)

Petroleum products exchange trading in Russia maintain high rates of


development encouraged by regulatory and legal framework evolving. High
rates are also explained by passing an early stage of market development.
The leading exchange market participants includes Rosneft (31,3% of total
sales), Surgutneftegaz (15,4%), Gazprom Neft (13,4%), LUKOIL (13,4%) and
Gazprom (10,3%). RON92 gasoline, summer diesel and heating oil account
for substantial volumes of exchange trading in petroleum products
26%, 20,3% and 14,7% respectively.

20082014

Turnover,
mln rubles

Volume,
Kt

Number of contracts,
1,000 units

600

20

100
80

15

400

60

10
200

40

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Russian Energy 2014. Oil

2013

2014

20
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: SPIMEX
25

Russian Energy 2014. Oil

26

Refining capacity

Average gasoline (RON-92) prices in Russia by region

mtpy

2014, rubles/l
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27

<5

510

Omsk
Kirishi
Ryazan
Kstovo
Yaroslavl
Perm
Moscow
Volgograd
Angarsk
Ufa
Syzran
Novokuybyshevsk
Ufa
Tyumen
Salavat
Achinsk
Komsomolsk-on-Amur
Ufa
Nizhnekamsk
Samara
26
Saratov
24
Orsk
Khabarovsk
Tuapse
Ukhta
Krasnodar
Novoshakhtinsk

1015

1520

7
3

27

25
4

11

21
8

19
20
12

10 13
18

14

15
22

17

1
16

23

>20

29

30

31

32

34

38

49

Source: Rosstat

Refining capacity

Gasoline (RON-92) price change in Russia by region

mtpy

January 2014 January 2015, %

<5

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

Omsk
Kirishi
Ryazan
Kstovo
Yaroslavl
Perm
Moscow
Volgograd
Angarsk
Ufa
Syzran
Novokuybyshevsk
Ufa
Tyumen
Salavat
Achinsk
Komsomolsk-on-Amur
Ufa
Nizhnekamsk
Samara
26
Saratov
24
Orsk
Khabarovsk
Tuapse
Ukhta

26
27

Krasnodar
Novoshakhtinsk

510

1015

Russian Energy 2014. Oil

1520

7
3

27

25
4

11

21
8

19
20
12

10 13
18

14

15
22

17

1
16

23

>20

10

11

12

17

Source: Rosstat
27

Russian Energy 2014. Oil

28

Investment in Russian oil sector


20102014, bln rubles
Crude oil
production

Petroleum
products output

Crude oil transport


by pipeline

1400

Investment in Russian oil sector in 2014 exceeded the level of 2013. The largest absolute
increase was recorded in crude oil production
by 156,8 bln rubles while the largest percentage
change was recorded in pipeline transportation
of crude oil by 40,2%. Petroleum products
output continues to demonstrate high CAAGR
recorded 26,0% in 20102014.

1200
1000
800
600
400
200

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Percentage change in oil investment


20112014 (year-on-year), %

Crude oil
production

Petroleum
products output

Crude oil transport


by pipeline

50

40

30

20

10

10

20

Source: Rosstat

NATUR AL GAS
Russian natural gas exports decline caused
a decrease in its production

Russian Energy 2014. Natural Gas

30

Natural gas reserves in the leading countries

Russias share in the world

2000-2014, tcm

20002013, %

Russia has significantly reduced its share


in the world market after the discoveries
of large natural gas fields in Iran, Qatar
and Turkmenistan.

25

15

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Source:

Iran
40

30

20

10

Source:

Russia

Qatar

Turkmenistan

US

Saudi Arabia

UAE

Venezuela

Nigeria

2013

Natural gas production in the leading countries

Russias share in the world

2000-2013, bcm

20002013, %

Despite a gradual increase in its production in


recent years, Russia has reduced its share in
global gas production due to the similar trends
in the United States, Qatar and Iran. In 2012,
Russia lost the leadership in gas production
to the US, where the growth has been provided
by shale gas exploitation. China has achieved
notable progress in the production of gas and
in 2013 it was ahead of Norway.

25

US

Russia

15

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source:

Qatar

Iran

Canada

China

Norway

800

600

400

200

Source:
Russian Energy 2014. Natural Gas

31

Russian Energy 2014. Natural Gas

32

Share of LNG in world


gas trade

Russia and other countries in world exports of natural gas


2000-2013, bcm

20002013, %
1200

35

25

1000

15

2013

2011

2012

2010

2009

2007

2008

2006

2004

2005

2003

2001

2002

2000

225,9

Russia

800

Source: IEA

600

400

121,5

Qatar

95,6

Norway

78,9

Canada

52,8

Netherlands

49,1
43,6

Algeria

Turkmenistan

200

371,0

2000

Source: IEA

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Other countries

Russia`s largest natural gas fields: reserves


2014, bcm
Russia`s natural gas reserves (ABC1) amount to 49,5 tcm, which is 1 percent more than in 2013. The largest
gas fields are located in Western Siberia oil and gas bearing province. The growth in gas reserves was provided
by gas fields in the Yamal Peninsula (Bovanenkovo, Kharasaveyskoye, Yuzhno-Tambeyskoye), Eastern Siberia
(Kovyktinskoye), Russian Far East (Chayandinskoye) and on the Arctic Shelf (Shtokman, Kruzenshternskoye).
In European Russia the main gas reserves are concentrated in Astrakhan field and Orenburg field.

5183

Urengoy

4346

Bovanenkovo

3939

Shtokman

3195

Yamburg

2483

Kruzenshternskoye

Astrakhan

2451

Zapolyarnoye

1563

Kovyktinskoye

1423

Kharasaveyskoye

1349

Kruzenshternskoye

997

Yuzhno-Tambeyskoye

887

Yuzhno-Russkoye

862

Severo-Tambeyskoye

708

Chayandinskoye

559

Medvezhye

Severo-Tambeyskoye
Yuzhno-Tambeyskoye

Kharasaveyskoye

Bovanenkovo

Shtokman
Yamburg
Medvezhye

Urengoy
Zapolyarnoye
Yuzhno-Russkoye

Chayandinskoye
Astrakhan

Kovyktinskoye

Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation


Russian Energy 2014. Natural Gas

33

Russian Energy 2014. Natural Gas

34

Major producing gas fields in Russia


2013, bcm
About 80% of Russia`s natural gas production is carried out in the Nadym-Pur-Taz region, Yamalo-Nenets AO.
In 2013, three gas fields Zapolyarnoye, Urengoy, Yamburg accounted for more than 40% of country`s gas
production.
In 2012, gas production was started at the Bovanenkovo field (Yamal Peninsula), and it accounted 22,8 bcm
in 2013 and about 40 bcm in 2014. By 2020, Bovanenkovo will become one of the largest gas producing fields
in Russia. Positive production dynamics also featured on Yurkharovskoye field and Yuzhno-Russkoye field.

Bovanenkovo

117,5

Zapolyarnoye

90,6

Urengoy

Yamburg
Yurkharovskoye

75,3

Yamburg

Medvezhye
Urengoy

38,4

Yurkharovskoye

25,1
22,8

Zapolyarnoye
Yuzhno-Russkoye

Yuzhno-Russkoye
Bovanenkovo

16,9

Orenburg

16,4

Lunskoye

12,2

Medvezhye

11,7

Astrakhan

Lunskoye
Orenburg
Astrakhan

Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation

Russias natural gas production by company


2014, bcm
Russia`s largest natural gas producer is
Gazprom, which provided 70,7% of country`s gas production in 2013, and 72% in
2012. There is a tendency for an increase
in the share of independent gas producers
in the Russia`s gas production: from 16%
in2007 to 29% in 2013.

According to CDU TEK, in 2014 Gazproms share in Russia`s


gas production amounted to 67%, which is 3,2 p.p. lower than
in 2013.The reason of the decline is the drop in Gazproms
production.
Independent gas producers increase production volumes,
leaders are Novatek and Rosneft.

432

208

Gazprom

Others

Source: CDU TEK

Independent gas producers in Russia


Production, 2012-2014, bcm
89,1
72
53,5

51,6

37,3
18,7

17,7

12,4

2012

2012
2013
2014

2012
2013
2014

2012
2013
2014

9,4

2012
2013
2014

12,6

2012
2013
2014

17

Novatek

Lukoil

TNK-BP

Rosneft

Surgutneftegaz

Others

Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation, CDU TEK
Russian Energy 2014. Natural Gas

35

Russian Energy 2014. Natural Gas

36

Natural gas in Russia: production, consumption and exports


2011-2014, bcm
production

669

201
470

domestic consumption

653

194
460

In 2014, Russia`s gas production amounted to 639,2 bcm, which is 4,3% less than in 2013. The decrease was caused by significant reduction of gas exports and by decline of domestic consumption.
In 20102014, the gas supply to the domestic market decreased by 30,7 bcm, or by 6,3%.

export

668

211

640

457

In 2014, Russia`s gas exports decreased by 11,4% year on year to 187 bcm, the lowest level since
2000 (except 2009). All of the major importers of Russian gas reduced the volume of imports (except Turkey, Belarus and Kazakhstan). A significant decrease was recorded in supplies to Ukraine
(44%) and Italy (19%).

187
455

Source: Rosstat, Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation

Russias natural gas production by region


2014, bcm

In 2014, more than 80% of natural gas production in Russia was provided by Yamalo-Nenets AO,
which is 1,5 p.p. lower than in 2013. In 20102014, YNAO share in Russia`s gas production was
8083%. In 2014 to 2013 gas production significantly increased in Krasnoyarsk region (+150%)
and Sakha (+25%) and the largest drop was observed in YNAO (6%, or 32,9 bcm).
Source: Rosstat, Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation

513

31,8

28

20,4

11,9

7,9

26,1

Yamalo-Nenets

Khanty-Mansi

Sakhalin

Orenburg

Astrakhan

Krasnoyarsk

Others

Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation, CDU TEK

Russia`s natural gas consumption by sector

Investment for Russian regions


gasification

2013, mtce
In 2013, the production of electricity and heat energy provided 51,8% of Russia`s natural gas consumption, which
is 1,4 p.p. less than in 2012. Gas consumption decreased by 5% in these two sectors, by 10,9% in industry and
increased by 15,3% in residential sector.

Residential

58,8

144,3

2011-2014, bln rubles


In 2014, investments for Russian regions gasification decreased by 15%,
and Russias gasification level increased by 0,9 p.p. compared with 2013
and reached 65,3%. The main reason is the increase in gas debts.

29

Electricity
production

33,7

33,9

28,8

Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation

Gas
transportation

43,4

540

135,6

Heat
production

Russias gasification level


2011-2014, %

Others

90,4

67,5

63,1

Industry

63,2

64,4

65,3

Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation


Source: Rosstat

Natural gas supply in the leading countries


20002013, bcm
US

EU

800
600
400
200

Russia

China

Iran

Japan

Canada

In Russia, the growth rate of domestic demand for gas has been lower
than the worlds one over the last decade. The increase in gas production
in the United States promotes the growth of its consumption there. In
2014, gas consumption in all EU countries fell below the Russian, which
was caused by energy efficiency and increasing renewable energy. The
ever growing use of natural gas in China led to a higher increase in demand for this energy source than the one observed in Iran in 2013.
Source: BP

Russian Energy 2014. Natural Gas

37

Russian Energy 2014. Natural Gas

38

LNG production and exports in Russia

CNG consumption in road transport

2009-2014, bcm

2008-2013, bcm

Russia`s LNG production and exports is carried out on single plant on Sakhalin Island, with
a capacity of 9,6 mtpa. LNG is exported by sea to the Asia-Pacific countries, mainly to Japan.

Russia`s CNG consumption is about 400 mcm, or 1,0% of the world total. The natural
gas consumption in transport is a priority of Russia`s gas industry develompent. One
of the mechanisms to stimulate the growth of CNG consumption are subsidies to the
regions. Creating the infrastructure for the Russian NGV market development will be
implemented mainly by Gazprom and Rosneft.

There are LNG plants projects in Russia. The plant on the Yamal Peninsula is under construction,
with an installed capacity of 16,5 mtpa, start at 20172018. It is also planned to implement projects
inVladivostok and the Baltic Sea (Gazprom) and Sakhalin Island (Rosneft).
In 2013, Russias share in the global LNG market was 4,4%.

14,4

13,4

14,8

14,5

14,4

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

World

21,25

25,59

30,37

35,02

36,96

n/a

Russia

0,34

0,33

0,35

0,37

0,39

0,41

Source: Gazprom Gazomotornoye Toplivo, IEA

6,6

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

World prices of natural gas

Source: CDU TEK

2000-2013, $/kcm

Share of Russia`s LNG exports by destination

700

Europe (Russian gas)

2014, %

Japan

US (Hengy Hub)

500
300

Source: Federal Customs Service of Russia

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

Others

2007

China

2006

Republic of Korea

2005

Japan

2004

1%

2003

2%

2002

16%

2001

81%

2000

100

In 2013-2014, the decline in gas prices in Europe and Asia was due to slowdown of
demand, increase in supply for this energy source and decrease in world prices for oil
and oil products. The main factor in the growth of prices of natural gas in the US was
the abnormally cold weather in early 2014.
Source: IMF

Russias natural gas exports by destination


2014, bcm
60

50

43,3 Others
40

36,4 Germany

30

27,3 Turkey

20,1 Belarus
19,9 Italy

20

14,5 Ukraine
11,6 Japan
10

8,6 Kazakhstan
7,1 France

In 2000-2014 Russias gas exports geography didnt change significantly: European


countries were the main customers. Russia started to export LNG to Asia-Pacific in
2009, mainly to Japan. In 2014, LNG exports was about 8% of total Russian gas exports.
In 2014, gas exports was 140,6 bcm to far-abroad countries (74,5% of total) and 48,1
bcm to FSU countries (25,5% of total).

0
2013

2014

Russian Energy 2014. Natural Gas

Source: Federal Customs Service of Russia


39

COAL
Moderate growth of coal production in Russia
is focused on Eastern export dimension

Russian Energy 2014. Coal

42

Countries with largest coal reserves

Russias share in world coal


production

2013, bln t

20052013, %

Russia holds the second place in coal reserves


in the world (after US). It possesses around 18%
of world reserves.

6
5

237,3

US

26,6%

157,0

Russia 17,6%

114,5

China 12,8%

76,4

Australia

60,6

India

40,5

Germany 4,5%

33,9

Ukraine 3,8 %

4
3
2
1

8,6%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Source: IEA World Coal Supply

6,8 %

Source:
World production of coal in 2013 remained almost flat as compared to
2012(growth was less than 0,5%). 45% of coal production in the world
was provided by China. Russian contribution made up around 4,5%
(6-th rank inthe world).

Top coal producing countries


2005-2013, mln t
China
4000

3000

2000

1000

Source: IEA World Coal Supply

US

India

Indonesia

Australia

Russia

South Africa

2013

Coal reserves in Russia by main basin

Coal production in Russia


by main basin

01.01.2014, bln t

2010-2014, mln t

There are 22 coal basins and 129 coal deposits in Russia. Over two thirds
of proven reserves are concentrated within two basins: Kansk-Achinsk
basin (brown coal) and Kuznetsk basin (hard coal). In 2013 coal reserves
in Russia increased by 0,1%.

79,3

Kansk-Achinsk Basin

53,4

Kuznetsk Basin 27,4 %

In 2014 coal production in Russia reached 358 mln t, which is 2% higher than
in 2013. It rised in Kuznetsk (+4%) and, especially, Donets (+26%) coal basins
and fell in Pechora (6%) and Kansk-Achinsk (3%) basins. Kuznetsk coal
basin remains the center of Russian coal production (59% of total).

40,7%
Kuznetsk Kansk-Achinsk
Basin
Basin

Pechora
Basin

Donets
Basin

Other

250

7,6

Irkutsk Basin 3,9 %

7,2

Pechora Basin 3,7%

6,5

Donets Basin 3,3 %

5,0

South Yakutia Basin 2,6%

4,5

Minusinsk Basin 2,3 %

200

150

100

50

Pechora Basin

Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation

Donets Basin

South Yakutia Basin

Kuznetsk Basin

Kansk-Achinsk Basin
Minusinsk Basin
Irkutsk Basin

Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology of the Russian Federation


Russian Energy 2014. Coal

43

Russian Energy 2014. Coal

44

Regional structure of coal production in Russia


20102014, %
Coal in Russia is produced in 7 federal districts and 25 federal subjects. Almost 85% of coal production in 2014 came from Siberian federal dictrict. Its significance for Russian coal industry is growing.
The largest coal producing federal subjects of the Russian Federation (Kemerovo Oblast,
Krasnoyarsk Krai and Zabaykalsky Krai) are situated there.

2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

Siberia

Far East

North West

Other

83,6
83,9
83,8
84,5
84,5

9,9
9,6
9,9
9,4
9,5

4,2
4,0
3,8
4,0
3,7

2,3
2,5
2,5
2,1
2,3

Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation

Coal production and upgrading in Russia by types

Up to 80% of coal produced in Russia is


presented by hard coal. Production of coking
coal in 2014 made up around 86 mln t or 24%
of the total. While almost all coking coal in
Russia is upgraded, upgrading level of steam
coal was only 27%.

2005-2014, mln t
300

250

200

Coking Coal
150

Upgrading of Coking Coal*


Steam Coal

100

Upgrading of Steam Coal*

50

* with import
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Ugol Magazine

Largest coal producers in Russia


2013-2014, mln t

98,9

96,5

55,5
43,5

JSC Coal Company


"Kuzbassrazrezugol"

JSC Holding Company


SDS-Ugol

Russian coal industry is dominated by large coal mining and iron and
steel holding companies. The largest coal mining company of Russia JSC
SUEK in 2014 produced almost 28% of national output. The share of
top5 coal producing companies was 60%. The rest of national production
comes from around 20 minor producers.

Russian Energy 2014. Coal

Evraz

21,4

JSC Mechel Mining

2014

2014

2013

2014

2013

2014

2013

2014

2013

JSC SUEK

25,2

2013

21,8

20,4

2014

29,7

25,7

2013

43,9

53,3

Other

Source: Ugol Magazine


45

Russian Energy 2014. Coal

46

Top oal onsuming ountries

Russias share in world coal


consumption

2005-2013, mln t

20052013, %

Coal consumption growth in the world is slowing.


In 2013 it grew by 2% as compared with 2012.
Leading world consumer of coal, China (upto
50% of the total) is concentrated on energy
balance diversification, reduction of energy
intensity and limitation of greenhouse gas
emissions. Russian share in world consumption
of coal was 3%.

5
4
3
2
1

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Source: IEA World Coal Supply

China
4000
3000
2000
1000

Source: IEA World Coal Supply

US

India

Germany

Russia

Japan

South Africa

2013

Supply of Russian coal to main


consumers

Average domestic coal prices


in Russia

2005-2014, mln t

2005-2014, rubles/t

In 2014 Russian companies increased coal supplies by 1% up to 322 mln t. Meanwhile


supplies to domestic market fell by 4% due to lower demand from electric power industry and population. Exports of coal from Russia augmented by 8%, imports
(mainly from Kazahstan) decreased by 16%.

In 2014 average domestic coal prices (either for hard steam coal or for
coking coal) in Russia stabilized at the level of the previous year.
Hard Steam Coal

Coking Coal

(Cost Price)

(Cost Price)

Hard Steam Coal

Coking Coal

(Purchase Price)

(Purchase Price)

350
6000
4000

300

84,1

Power Plants

2000

2005

250

200

150

100

38,3

Coking Plants

23,3

Supplies
to population

24,9

Other*

152,1

Export

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014*

* Preliminary Data
Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation

Russian investment to coal


industry
2010-2014, bln rubles
Investment in Russian coal industry decreased by 28% in 2014 to the level
of 2013. In the context of complicated economic situation in the country,
coal companies began to freeze their investment projects.

50

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

99,5

116,9
80,4

50

60,0
25,3
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

* Iron and Steel Industry, Cement Industry, Russian Railways, etc.


Source: Ugol Magazine
Russian Energy 2014. Coal

2012

2013

58,0

Import

2014

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation


47

Russian Energy 2014. Coal

48

Structure of Russian hard coal exports by destination


2013-2014, mln t
30

25,8 China
25

24,0 UK

20

17,5 Other
16,2 South Korea
15

14,7 Japan

10

9,8 Ukraine

8,6
7,6
6,4
5,5
4,7
4,1
3,6
2,5
2,3

2013

2014

Turkey
Netherlands
Poland
Taiwan
Germany
Latvia
Finland
Israel
Belgium

Russian hard coal exports in 2014 reached 152 mln t (+8% to the level of 2013) though in
monetary terms there was a slight decrease to 11,6 bln $ (2%) as a result of falling coal
prices in the world. The largest volumes of coal from Russia went to China, UK, South
Korea and Japan. Eastern vector is a priority for Russian coal exports.

Source: Federal Customs Service of Russia

Top coal exporting countries

Russian share in world coal


exports

2005-2013, mln t

20052013, %

International coal trade grew by 4% in 2013 (tothe level of 2012). Approximately 90% of coal trade is
seaborne trade. Indonesia strengthened its position as the world leading coal exporter. Its share in
the world coal exports approached 32%. Russia preserved the third rank with 11% of world total.

15

Indonesia

Australia

Russia

US

Colombia

South Africa

Canada
10

400
300
5
200
100
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: IEA World Coal Supply

Source: IEA World Coal Supply

World coal prices

World steam coal prices

2005-2013, $/t

2013-2014, $/t

2011

2012

2013

The world market for coal is overssuplied. In 2013 coal prices irrespective of coal type or region fell.
In 2014 they continued to decline so that steam coal prices approached their 5-year minimums.
CIF Japan
Japan Coking Coal
Import CIF Price

Japan Steam Coal


Import CIF Price

Asian Marker
Price

Northwest Europe
Marker Price

US Central Appalachian
Coal Spot Price Index

FOB Vostochny

CIF Europe

(Russia)

(Amsterdam-RotterdamAntwerp)

FOB Newcastle

FOB Richards Bay

(ustralia)

(South Africa)

110

250

100

200

90

150

80

100

70

50

60
2005

2006

Source:
Russian Energy 2014. Coal

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

jan

mar

may

2013

jul

sep

nov

jan

mar

may

jul

sep

nov

2014

Source: Metal Expert


49

PETROCHEMICALS
There is a growth of investment and evolution
of import substitution in Russian petrochemical industry

Russian Energy 2014. Petrochemicals

52

Polymers production in Russia


in primary forms

Russian investment
to petrochemical industry

2005-2014, mln t

2011-2014, bln rubles

Growth of plastics production in Russia slowed to 3% in 2014. The reason was an accident
at Stavrolen plant in February which caused sharp decline in polyethylene production. Still ther
was considerable growth in polypropylene and polystyrene production. New vinylchloride plant
RusVinyl LLC opened in October (with the capacity of 300 tsd t per year).

140
123

123

2012

2013

97

Plasticsin Primary Forms


Polyethylene
Polystyrene

Vinylchloride
Polypropylene
5

2011

2014

In 2014 investment in Russian petrochemical industry increased by 14%


as compared with 2013 and totaled 140 bln rubles.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation

2014

Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation

Changes in polymers production and consumption in Russia


2013-2014, kt and %
In Russian petrochemical industry a trend of import substitution is evolving. In 2014 Russia
continued to reduce imports of large-tonnage polymers and to raise their exports (with the exeption
of polyethylene). Nevertheless import dependance for certain items is still considerable.

Polystyrene

Vinylchloride

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

2500

2000

10%

estimated consumption

14%

production

1500

0%

estimated consumption

9%

production

10%
19%

1000

2%
15%

500

13%
61%
2013

estimated consumption
production

1%

import

16%

export

estimated consumption

9%

production

import

import
export

2014

45%
2013

20%
22%

export

2014

2013

2014

import
export
2013

2014

Source: Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Federal Customs Service of Russia
Russian Energy 2014. Petrochemicals

53

ELEC TRICIT Y
Total electricity consumption in Russia in 2014 was close
to the level of the 2013 year

Russian Energy 2014. Electricity

56

Installed power capacity in Russia


2008-2014, GW
248
26

250
200

Absolute growth of capacity in the


UES of Russia amounted to 6 GW
in 2014 (+3% to the level of 2013),
from 2008 to 2014 it was 21,8 GW
(+10,4% to the level of 2008). Total
installed capacity in Russia grew
at 23 GW from 2008 to 2014.

UES of Russia, total


UES of Russia, nuclear energy

48

UES of Russia, hydropower

159

UES of Russia, fuel energy

150
100
50

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Source: Rosstat

2014

Additional power capacity in UES of Russia


in 2014: total and by the Capacity Delivery
Agreement (CDA)

Depreciation of fixed assets at the end of the


year: generation, transmission and distribution
of electricity

2008-2014, GW

2008-2013, by the end of the year, %

except CDA

CDA
economy, average

2,9

3,3

1,3

1,2
2008

2009

2011

30

2,7

2,6

2012

2013

20
10

1,0

0,5
2010

distribution

40

2,9

transmission

50

4,1

generation

5,0

2014

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

The installed capacity of power plants of UES of Russia in 2014 grew mainly due to fuel power
by the Capacity Delivery Agreement (65% of all entries), the rest of the growth was provided by
nuclearpower (1 GW) and hydropower (intotal 1,5 GW).

Depreciation of fixed assets in the electricity did not exceed the average level of all industries in
2013. Depreciation was 34% for the generation, 43% for transmission and 35% for distribution in
2013, but depreciation in all electricity sectors has tendency to grow.

Source: Rosstat

Source: Rosstat

Investments in generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in Russia*


20102014, bln rubles
Investment in electricity sector was roughly at the same level in 2014
in comparison to 2013

1000

800

75

102

144
102

600

264

298

73

distribution and trade


transmission
generation

282

266

186

400

200

382

346

525

466

406

*Investments in fixed capital without small enterprises and statistically unobservable


investments
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Rosstat

Change of investments in electricity in fixed capital of Russia in 2014 in comparison to 2013*


2014 in comparison to 2013, %
absolute change to 2013 bln roubles
(constant prices)

per cent change,


physical volume, % to 2013

Generation, transmission
and distribution of electricity

0,3

Generation

59

13

Transmission

34

11

Distribution and trade

28

27

FRussian Energy 2014. Electricity

We can see reduction of investment in transmission and distribution, investment


in the production of electricity increased by 13%

*Investments in fixed capital without small enterprises and statistically unobservable


investments
Source: Rosstat
57

Russian Energy 2014. Electricity

58

Average electricity price by consumers


(nominal prices)
2004, 2010-2014, rubles/kWh
Industry

Services

Agriculture

Transport

Households

3,6

3,6

2,2

2,2

1,6
1

Source: Rosstat

Electricity price for industry and households


and CPI in Russia

Electricity price for households exceeds the


price for industry.

price ratio (industry/households)

2004-2014, year by year, %


1,4

Electricity prices growth for different consumer groups was


no faster than the rate of inflation in 2014.
consumers price index

price for industry

price for households

1,2

30
25
1

20
15
10
5

0,8
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Rosstat

Electricity consumption growth in the UES of Russia

There was an small increase of electricity consumption in 2014 by the level


of 2013, but it was because of relatively low base in 2013 (incomparison to
previous periods), and not of because economic growth. There was decline
in 2014 compared with 2012 level.

2004-2014, year by year, %

UES of Russia,
total

Central

Ural

Volga

North-West

South

Siberia

East

10

-5

-10

Source: SO-UPS

Industrial Production Index in Russia


and federal districts

Industrial growth had not led to an increase of electricity consumption


in 2014 in comparison to 2013.

2004-2014, year by year, %


Russia

Center

North West

South

North Caucasus

Volga

Ural

Siberia

Far East

15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15

Source: Rosstat
Russian Energy 2014. Electricity

59

Prepared by the Analytical Center for the Government


of the Russian Federation
www.ac.gov.ru

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