INTEHNATIONAL GONFEHiENC E

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efforts at
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PROGBAMME:

SPEAKERS PROFILES
EMERITUS PROFESSOR CARLYLE A. THAYER
Carlyle A. Thayer is Emeritus Professor, The
University of New South Wales (UNSW) at the
Australian Defence Force Academy (ADFA),
Director of Thayer Consultancy, and Defence

(2005) and the Inaugural Frances M. and Stephen

H. Fuller Distinguished Visiting Professor at Ohio
University (2008).

and Security columnist for The Diplomat. He

was educated at Brown, holds an M.A. in
Southeast Asian Studies from Yale and a PhD
in lnternational Relations from the Australian
National University. Thayer joined the UNSW in
1979 and taught first in the Faculty of Military
Studies at the Royal Military College-Duntroon
and then at the Australian Defence Force
Academy (ADFA) (1985-2010). He has held
senior appointments at the Asia-Pacific Center
for Security Studies in Honolulu (1 999-2002), the
Centre for Defence and Strategic Studies at the
Australian Defence College (2002-04), and the
Australian Command and Staff College (2006-07
and 2010). He was the C.V Starr Distinguished
Visiting Professor at the School of Advanced
lnternational Studies at Johns Hopkins University

Professor Thayer is the author of over 500

academic publications inciuding: The Vietnam
People's Army Under Doi Mo . Pacific Strategic
Paper No. 7 (Singapore: lnstitute of Southeast
Asian Studies, 1994). Vietnam People's Army:
Development and Modernization (Bandar
Seri Begawan: Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah
lnstitute of Defence and Strategic Studies,
2009); Southeast Asia: Patterns of Security
Cooperation, ASPI Strategy Report. (Canberra:
Australian Strategic Policy lnstitute. 20'1 0) and
'The Militarisation of the South China Sea', in
Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment
2016: Key Developments and Trends (London
and Singapore: lnternational lnstitute of Security
Studies, 2016).

MS. SUMATHY PERMAL

Sumathy Permal is a Senior Researcher with
the Centre for Maritime Security and Diplomacy,
Maritime lnstitute of Malaysia. Ms. Permal's
research areas are on geo-politic, geostrategic and maritime security issues in the
Asia Pacific. Her recent publication includes
China's Miliiary Capability and Anti-Access Area
Denial Operations, Maritime Affairs, Journal of
National Maritime Foundation, 2014, Maritime
Cooperation with United States and China:
Examination on the Contemporary lssues and
Challenges for Malaysia, Journal of Defence
and Security, 20'14, Malaysia, Preventive
Diplomacy in the South China Sea, Journal of
Defence and Security,2012; Report on Safe

Waters: Malaysia's Response to Enhancing

Security in Southeast Asia's Mar time Domain,
EU-Asia Dialogue, 2013, Indo-Pac fic Region:
Perspectives from Southeast Asia and East Asia,
lndian Council of World Affairs. 2013. lndia's
Look East Policy and Marltrme Cooperation in
Southeast Asia, 2012: and co-author in Regional
Maritime Security Environment: the Malaysian
Perspective, Southeast Asia and the Rise of
Chinese and lndian Naval Power. Between Rising
Naval Powers, Rutledge Security in Asia Series,
2010; Sumathy Permal is on the editorial board
of the Australian Journal of Maritime & Ocean
Affairs and Associate Member of the Corbett
Centre for Maritime Policy Studies.

ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR DR. RALF EMMERS

Dr. Ralf Emmers is Associate Dean and
Associate Professor (with Tenure) at the S.
Rajaratnam School of lnternational Studies
(RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU),

Singapore. He concurrently heads the Centre

for Multilateralism Studies (CMS) at RSIS. Dr.
Emmers completed his MSc and PhD under the
supervision of the late Professor Michael Leifer
in the lnternational Relations Department of the
London School of Economics (LSE). His research
interests cover security studies and international
relations theory, maritime security, international
institutions in the Asia Pacific, and the security
and international politics of Southeast Asia.
Dr. Emmers is the author or editor of 11 books
and monographs. He is also the co-Series
Editor of the Warwick Studies in Globalisation

(Routledge Book Series) and an Editorial Board

member of The Pacific Review. He has published
articles in peer-reviewed journals such as The
Pacific Review, lnternaiional Relations of the
Asia-Pacific, Asian Survey. Australian Journal
of lnternational Affairs. Asian Security, Harvard
Asia Quarlerly, Contemporary Southeast Asia,
Contemporary Politics, Asian Journal of PeaceBuilding, Political Science and numerous
book chapters in edited volumes. At RSIS, Dr
Emmers has served as the Coordinator of the
Multilateralism and Regionalism Programme
(2009-2013), the Acting Head of the Centre for
Non-Traditional Security Studies in RSIS (201 1)
and the Head of Graduate Studies (2006-2009).

The Militarisation of
the South China Sea
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Presentation to International Conference on
The Challenges to Peace and Security in the South China Sea
co-organised by the Malaysian International Affairs Forum in
collaboration with HELP University
The Westin, Kuala Lumpur
July 28, 2016

Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.

Introduction
U.S.-China War of Words over militarisation
What constitutes militarisation?
What construction have claimant states
carried out?
5. Major Powers and the South China Sea
6. Implications for Regional Security

1. Introduction
South China Sea vital world waterway
In 2014 China began to implement master
plan to expand and consolidate its presence
Massive damage to marine environment

US Secretary of Defense Carter notes that

land reclamation and militarisation are new
developments
U.S. asserts its right to be be involved

Land Reclamation 1970-2015

China is not just catching up
Land Area

China
5 other
claimants

2. U.S.-China War of Words

over militarisation
Two separate issues became entangled
the purpose of Chinas infrastructure on its
artificial islands and
U.S. Freedom of Navigational Operational Patrols

U.S. charges China with militarising the South

China Sea through construction on artificial
islands

U.S.-China War of Words

over militarisation
China counter charges that U.S. naval ship and
aircraft patrols and exercises with regional
states constitutes militarisation
President Xi Jinping states China does not
intend to pursue militarisation
Joint Press Conference with President Obama,
Rose Garden, White House, 25 Sept 2015

Spill over on ADMM-Plus, 4 November 2015

3. What constitutes militarisation?

Militarisation not defined by either China or
the United States
to give a military quality or character to
to equip military forces and defences to
adapt for military use
Equipping forces with weapons in preparation
for war
Militarisation is a spectrum of activities

Militarization
To give a military
character to

To make preparations
for war
Dual civilmilitary

Red Line?

4. What construction have

claimant states carried out?

Status of Features in the Spratlys

Rocks
Cuarteron Reef
Fiery Cross Reef
Gaven Reef (North)
Johnson Reef
McKennan Reef
Scarborough Shoal
Itu Aba (Taiping)

Low Tide Elevations

Gaven Reef (South)
Hughes Reef
Mischief Reef
Second Thomas
Shoal
Subi Reef

China cannot claim sovereignty on artificial islands built on a low tide elevation.

Mischief Reef (LTE)

Subi Reef (LTE)

China cannot claim sovereignty over artificial islands built on a low tide
elevation. Artificial islands do not change the legal status of such features.

Subi Reef (LTE)

Fiery Cross Reef (Rock)

5. Major Powers
and the South China Sea
U.S. has deployed Littoral Combat Ships, P-8A
Poseidons, over-flights by B-52 bombers
In future: F-25s, DD-1000, Ford-class aircraft
carrier, V-22 Opsreys
With exception of FONOPS, all other U.S.
military activities are at consent of host
government
VFA and EDCA with the Philippines

Major Powers
and the South China Sea
China does not interfere with international
commercial shipping
China interferes with foreign fishermen and
commercial oil exploration vessels
China interferes with freedom of navigation of
foreign military ships and aircraft ordering
them out of military alert zone

6. Implications for Regional Security

1. Discussions on DOC and COC have been
overtaken by Chinas construction of artificial
islands
2. The Arbitral Tribunal has ruled on the status
of features in the South China Sea and their
maritime entitlements
3. China will consolidate civilian support
services and public goods and defence
facilities

Implications for Regional Security

4. China holds right to establish an Air Defence
Identification Reserve in reserve
5. China-U.S. rivalry has created a security
dilemma
6. If China militarises this will alter naval
balance of power over time
7. ASEANs centrality and Southeast Asia
regional autonomy is under serious challenge

Chinas Artificial Islands Not Land Reclamation

The Militarisation of
the South China Sea
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Presentation to International Conference on
The Challenges to Peace and Security in the South China Sea
co-organised by the Malaysian International Affairs Forum in
collaboration with HELP University
The Westin, Kuala Lumpur
July 28, 2016