Daily Market Reflection

05 th August 2016
Market Outlook

USDINR

The Rupee trimmed its initial gains but was still quoting up by 4
paise to 66.95 against the American currency in late morning deals
on bouts of dollar selling by exporters amid gains in equities after
the approval for passage of GST in the Rajya Sabha yesterday.
The Pound fell to the days lows after the Bank of England slashed
interest rates to record lows and boosted its quantitative easing
program to offset the effects of the June 23 vote to exit the
European Union. The BoE cut interest rates to a record-low 0.25%
in a bid to buffer the economy from a downturn following the U.K.
referendum vote..
Fundamental News

Sterling hits days lows after BoE cuts rates, up QE.

Swiss Consumer sentiment remains subdued.
Sales growth across Germany and France offset by
downturn in Italy.
Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM) up to 23.5% in May
from previous 23.3%.

Currency Future
Currency
Date

Date

% Chg

03-08-16

04-08-16

USDINR

67.2625

67.1850

-0.12%

EURINR

75.3875

74.8400

-0.73%

GBPINR

89.8075

88.8125

-1.11%

JPYINR

66.4225

66.2775

-0.22%

Event Calendar (5th August 2016)

Time
Currency Event
5:30pm

JPY

11:30am

EUR

1:00pm

GBP

6:00pm

USD

6:00pm

USD

6:00pm

USD

Average Cash Earnings

y/y
German Factory Orders
m/m
Halifax HPI m/m
Average Hourly Earnings
m/m
Non-Farm Employment
Change
Unemployment Rate

Forecast

Previou
s

0.4%

-0.1%

0.5%

0.0%

-0.1%

1.3%

0.2%

0.1%

180K

287K

4.8%

4.9%

Reference Rate
Currency Date
03-08-16
USDINR
66.9368
EURINR
74.9893
GBPINR
89.0126
JPYINR
66.2600

Date
04-08-16
66.9447
74.5965
89.0699
65.9500

%
Change
+0.01%
-0.52%
+0.06%
-0.46%

Currencies vs $
Currency
Close
(5:00p
m)
Rupee
66.9175

Prev
Close

%
Chg

66.9925

Dollar Index

95.8800

95.5600

Euro

1.1118

1.1149

0.11%
+0.34
%
0.28%

Global Commodities
Commodit Close
Prev.Clos % Chg
y
e
Gold
1364.2 1364.70
-0.03%
5
Silver
20.39
20.47
-0.42%
Crude
40.70
40.83
-0.39%
Copper
2.164
2.199
-1.57%
OUR PREVIOUS CALLS UPDATE
Intraday super star
Date Currenc Entry
y
01/08 GBPINR 88.627
5
Trifid special
Date Currenc Entry
y
01/0 JPYINR 65.250
8
0

Exit

P/L

88.507
5

4800

Exit

P/L

65.550
0

12000

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Overview
USDINR

EURINR

USDINR took stiff resistance around 100 day EMA on

daily charts for last two consecutive sessions and closed
flat.

EURINR broke the bull rally which it was exhibiting in last

few successive sessions and closed weak.

Now, strength can be observed on any closing above

67.3000 while 66.9500 may again act as good support for
the currency pair.
R1
67.3000

R2
67.5000

S1
67.0000

S2
66.8000

On daily charts, closing below the trend line coming from

recent support
indicates
further
bearishness
towards deeper support while 75.3000 is seen as
immediate resistance.
R1

R2

S1

S2

75.0000

75.2000

74.6000

74.4000

GBPINR

JPYINR

GBPINR showed sharp fall near the end of the session as

BoE cuts rates.

JPYINR was unable to extend the gains which it was

carrying since past few sessions.

It washed off all the gains made by the counter in last two
consecutive session and closed around the support of
88.3500 below which it may drag towards 87.8000.

On daily charts, 66.6000 is still acting as strict resistance

for the pair whereas 65.6000-65.2000 is seen as support
range from current levels.

R1
88.6000

R1
66.4000

R2
88.8000

S1
88.3000

S2
88.1000

R2
66.6000

S1
66.0000

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S2
65.8000

Intraday Super Star

(Premium Section)

EURINR showed strong downfall surpassing the trend line acting as support and closed below it. Bears are expected to
drag the counter towards deeper support levels.
SELL BELOW 74.7975 TARGETS 74.6775/74.5575 SL 74.9975.

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Trifid Special
(Premium Section)

GBPINR was hit extremely in the end of the session on rate cut by BoE and closed near the support as seen on daily
charts. Now, it is expected to breach the support as shown above in the chart.
SELL BELOW 88.3500 TARGET 88.0500 SL 88.6500.

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